Vegas Golden Knights Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 64.3%
6 points   3 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 *+0.1
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Vegas vs Arizona+5.0+4.3+3.4-1.4-1.3-5.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.3
+1.5+1.6+1.4-0.6-0.4-1.8
Anaheim vs Minnesota*+0.1-0.4*-0.4*-0.1-0.5+0.2
St. Louis vs San Jose*+0.1*-0.3-0.5*-0.1-0.7*+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vegas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
89-112InYes100401*
883910-4In99.6%1000253*
873810-5InYes100395*
863811-4In99.01000700*
853711-5In98.49911,169*
843712-4In97.599101,748*
833612-5In97.299102,644*
823512-6In94.698203,997*
813513-5In92.297205,700*
803413-6In87.395418,337*
793414-5In81.8926211,405*
783314-6In73.68893015,326*
773315-5In62.882125020,216*
763215-6In50.075178025,990*
753216-5In37.2652212032,778*
743116-6In24.45428181040,122*
733117-5In13.74133251047,685*
723017-6100.0%6.3293533300055,840*
713018-5100.02.418344170064,900*
702918-6100.00.6930481210071,928*
692919-599.90.14235021200079,330*
682819-699.70.01154731500085,549*
672820-599.1No0838411111089,745*
662720-697.1No03264620330092,704*
652721-591.4No01144227881093,115*
642621-679.7No0530261817300092,535*
632622-561.5No02171726251120088,569*
622522-639.8No0077262723920084,399*
612523-521.2No02217193021820077,420*
602423-69.3No01089253019610070,771*
592424-53.3No000331429291651062,985*
582324-61.2No000115183128133054,566*
572325-50.3No0000292333248146,373*
562225-60.2No0000314293317338,445*
552226-50.1No000016203628831,547*
542126-60.0No000021232381525,063*
532127-50.0No001624432619,666*
522027-60.0No000316433815,153*
512028-50.0No00111385011,521*
501928-6OutNo1533628,562*
491929-5OutNo00326715,990*
481829-6OutNo0119794,132*
471830-5OutNo114852,833*
461730-6OutNo009911,920*
451731-5OutNo06941,285*
441631-6OutNo0496827*
431632-5OutNo397534*
421532-6OutNo298316*
38-41OutNo100382*
371335-5OutNo69418*
6-36OutNo100147*
Total:64.3%6.5%129171476655544331,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Vegas finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPhiladelphiaNew JerseyWashingtonNY IslandersMinnesotaColoradoSt. LouisArizonaAnaheimBostonPittsburghNY RangersLos AngelesSan JoseBuffalo
112530-07.0%1181212171414121
95415-7NoYes
94438-233.36733
93417-517.612181861212186
92407-67.4419154157111115
91419-35.18101513158510105
90409-44.26441113118714311114
89399-59.64329167101025310173
883910-47.5522311131211103338113
873810-55.3734291099123341194
863811-46.14344111191111534892
853711-56.134341210111012343893
843712-45.9454412910109444994
833612-55.9545511109910444984
823512-66.655441099109455884
813513-56.355551091089544984
803413-65.9554499999555984
793414-56.05555910998555884
783314-65.8555599998555885
773315-56.4555599988555885
763215-66.2555599989555885
753216-56.3555599999555885
743116-66.5555510101099555884
733117-56.344441010101010444884
723017-66.344441111111010443993
713018-56.133331212121111333993
702918-66.32222131313121222210102
692919-56.32222141414121222210101
682819-66.22121141414121311111111
2718-86.21111141414121311111111
672820-56.11111141414131211111111
2921-36.12221141414121211111111
662720-66.12222141414121211111101
2619-85.72222131413111112110101
652721-55.733321212121010222991
642621-64.9333310101088222771
632622-53.8333377766222551
622522-62.5232244433111331
612523-51.4111122222111110
602423-60.5010011111000110
592424-50.2000000000000000
582425-40.100000000000000
572325-50.000000000000000
562326-40.000000000
552226-50.000000000
542227-40.0000000
532127-50.0000
522128-4No000
511826-90.00
6-50No
Total:4.0%2.22.22.12.07.97.87.96.96.91.81.81.66.06.01.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

TuesdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Vegas vs Arizona-1.1-1.0-0.8+0.3+0.3+1.3
St. Louis vs San Jose*-0.0+0.0*+0.1*+0.0+0.1-0.0
Toronto vs Edmonton*-0.0+0.0-0.1*+0.0*-0.0+0.0
Anaheim vs Minnesota-0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Vancouver vs Montreal*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
89-112100
883910-41000
873810-5100
863811-49910
853711-59811
843712-498210
833612-597210
823512-695320
813513-592520
803413-6877401
793414-582106020
783314-674159030
773315-563191205000
763215-650251718000
753216-5372821112000
743116-62430253161110
733117-51428266212101000
723017-6622251024530300000
713018-5215201424107060000
702918-6181317191513111100100
692919-50471711181831622020000
682819-6013125152082065050000
672820-50171915131712111111110
662720-60030481591518317330300
652721-500101211312199198808100
642621-6000505111313131621551000
632622-5000201411513206191351000
622522-60000016161511152115720000
612523-500020261161722181041000
602423-60010171716222114731000
592424-500003015132022181151000
582324-600001001491722211472100
572325-50000001271522231793100
562225-600000261321241910410
552226-50000025122125201130
542126-600000151323272092
532127-500016152629185
522027-60002819322811
512028-50001312293620
501928-60016224031
491929-5003153845
481829-60183358
471830-5052768
461730-60021978
451731-511584
441631-6001090
431632-50793
421532-60496
411533-5199
401433-6100
391434-5298
381435-4100
371335-5694
6-36100
Total:7554544343434342433333222222211