Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Los Angeles 3-2, playoff odds up 5.3 to 53.3%

4 points 2 1-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3	+5.3		+0.3		+0.8

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Vegas vs Arizona	+0.2-0.6-0.2-0.1-0.7*+0.1
Anaheim vs Minnesota	+0.3-0.3-0.3-0.6-0.6*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

88	-110						In		Yes		100														296	*
87		39	9		-	5	In		99.2	%	99	1													130	*
86		39	10		-	4	In		99.6		100	0													231	*
85		38	10		-	5	In		98.1		99	0	0												423	*
84		37	10		-	6	In		98.6		99	1													716	*
83		37	11		-	5	In		97.4		99	1	0												1,095	*
82		36	11		-	6	In		94.7		98	2	0												1,810	*
81		36	12		-	5	In		91.7		97	3	1												2,592	*
80		36	13		-	4	In		87.9		95	4	1												3,972	*
79		35	13		-	5	In		81.1		92	6	2												5,780	*
78		34	13		-	6	In		72.5		87	9	4	0											8,239	*
77		34	14		-	5	In		62.5		82	12	6	0											11,352	*
76		33	14		-	6	In		50.1		74	17	9	0											15,271	*
75		33	15		-	5	In		36.4		65	22	13	0	0										20,400	*
74		32	15		-	6	In		23.8		53	27	19	1	0										25,969	*
73		32	16		-	5	In		13.7		41	32	26	2	0										32,271	*
72		31	16		-	6	In		6.5		28	34	34	4	0										40,365	*
71		31	17		-	5	100.0	%	2.3		17	33	42	7	0		0								48,180	*
70		30	17		-	6	100.0		0.6		9	29	48	13	1	0	0	0							55,661	*
69		30	18		-	5	99.9		0.1		4	22	50	21	2	0	0	0							64,879	*
68		29	18		-	6	99.7		0.0		1	14	47	32	6	0	0	0							72,581	*
67		29	19		-	5	99.0		No		0	7	37	42	12	1	1	0							79,711	*
66		28	19		-	6	96.7		No		0	3	25	46	20	3	3	0	0						85,521	*
65		28	20		-	5	90.9		No		0	1	14	42	27	8	8	1	0						89,839	*
64		27	20		-	6	79.2		No			0	5	30	26	18	17	3	0	0	0				92,424	*
63		27	21		-	5	60.7		No			0	1	16	17	26	26	11	2	0	0	0			92,924	*
62		26	21		-	6	39.3		No				0	7	7	25	27	23	9	2	0	0			91,889	*
61		26	22		-	5	21.5		No				0	2	2	17	19	30	21	8	1	0	0		88,487	*
60		25	22		-	6	9.2		No				0	1	0	8	9	25	30	19	6	1	0	0	83,761	*
59		25	23		-	5	3.3		No				0	0	0	3	3	14	29	29	16	5	1	0	77,409	*
58		24	23		-	6	1.1		No				0	0	0	1	1	6	18	31	27	13	3	0	70,709	*
57		24	24		-	5	0.3		No				0	0		0	0	2	9	23	33	24	8	1	62,436	*
56		23	24		-	6	0.1		No					0		0	0	0	3	14	30	33	17	3	54,477	*
55		23	25		-	5	0.1		No					0		0		0	1	6	21	36	28	8	46,728	*
54		22	25		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	0	2	12	32	37	16	38,849	*
53		22	26		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	1	6	25	43	25	31,531	*
52		21	26		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	0	0	3	17	42	38	25,373	*
51		21	27		-	5	Out		No											0	1	10	39	50	19,857	*
50		20	27		-	6	Out		No											0	0	6	33	61	15,164	*
49		20	28		-	5	Out		No											0	0	3	26	71	11,406	*
48		19	28		-	6	Out		No												0	1	19	79	8,437	*
47		19	29		-	5	Out		No													1	14	85	6,067	*
46		18	29		-	6	Out		No													0	10	90	4,263	*
45		18	30		-	5	Out		No													0	7	93	2,979	*
44		17	30		-	6	Out		No													0	4	95	1,928	*
43		17	31		-	5	Out		No														3	97	1,363	*
42		16	31		-	6	Out		No													0	1	99	806	*
41		16	32		-	5	Out		No														1	99	496	*
40		16	33		-	4	Out		No														1	99	310	*
4	-39						Out		No															100	579	*

Total:							53.3	%	3.6	%	7	7	14	13	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	1,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Vegas	Philadelphia	New Jersey	Washington	NY Islanders	Minnesota	St. Louis	Arizona	Anaheim	Boston	Pittsburgh	NY Rangers	Los Angeles	San Jose	Buffalo

110		53	0		-	0	4.7	%	16					19	17	16	12				13	7
95		45	7		-	1	No															Yes
94		42	5		-	6	No							Yes
93		42	6		-	5	No							25			25				25	25
92		41	6		-	6	No							33		33						33
91		41	7		-	5	No		33			8	8	17		17	8				8
90		41	8		-	4	3.3		3	3	10	7	3	10	7	7	20	7	3	7	3	7	3
89		40	8		-	5	3.0		18	3	3	6	3	15	9	6	15			3	12	6
88		39	8		-	6	2.4		15	2	5	6	2	6	7	12	12	1	4	5	11	10	2
87		39	9		-	5	5.4		9	3	2	2	5	11	13	13	8	5	3	5	11	7	3
86		39	10		-	4	3.9		10	6	3	3	2	12	12	8	11	2	5	3	10	12	2
85		38	10		-	5	7.3		9	3	3	3	4	13	13	9	13	3	3	3	8	9	4
84		37	10		-	6	5.4		11	4	3	4	4	9	10	9	10	3	4	5	10	9	4
83		37	11		-	5	6.5		9	4	5	4	4	11	9	10	10	5	3	3	11	7	4
82		36	11		-	6	6.6		9	4	4	4	4	10	11	9	10	5	5	5	7	9	4
81		36	12		-	5	6.5		9	5	5	4	5	10	9	9	9	5	5	6	9	8	4
80		36	13		-	4	6.6		10	4	5	5	5	8	9	9	10	5	5	4	8	8	5
79		35	13		-	5	6.8		10	5	5	5	5	9	9	8	9	5	5	5	8	8	5
78		34	13		-	6	5.9		9	5	5	5	5	10	9	9	9	5	5	5	8	8	5
77		34	14		-	5	6.4		9	5	5	5	5	9	9	9	9	5	5	5	8	8	5
76		33	14		-	6	6.2		10	5	6	5	5	9	9	8	9	5	5	5	8	7	5
75		33	15		-	5	6.5		10	5	5	5	5	9	9	9	9	5	5	5	8	8	5
74		32	15		-	6	6.2		10	5	5	5	5	10	10	9	9	5	5	5	8	8	4
73		32	16		-	5	6.1		12	4	4	4	4	10	10	9	9	4	4	4	8	8	4
72		31	16		-	6	6.3		12	4	4	4	4	11	11	10	10	4	4	3	9	8	3
71		31	17		-	5	6.4		14	3	3	3	3	12	12	10	11	3	3	3	9	9	3
70		30	17		-	6	6.3		15	2	2	2	2	13	13	11	11	2	2	2	10	10	2
69		30	18		-	5	6.2		16	2	2	2	2	13	14	12	12	2	2	2	10	10	1
68		29	18		-	6	6.1		16	1	1	1	1	14	14	12	12	1	1	1	11	10	1
		28	17		-	8	6.3		16	2	1	1	1	14	14	12	12	1	1	1	11	10	1
67		29	19		-	5	6.3		16	2	1	1	1	14	14	12	12	1	1	1	11	10	1
		30	20		-	3	5.9		16	2	2	2	1	14	14	12	12	1	1	1	10	10	1
66		28	19		-	6	5.9		16	2	2	2	2	13	13	11	12	1	1	1	10	10	1
		27	18		-	8	6.0		15	2	2	2	2	13	13	11	11	1	1	1	10	10	1
65		28	20		-	5	5.6		14	3	3	3	2	12	12	10	10	2	2	2	9	9	1
		29	21		-	3	5.4		14	3	3	3	2	11	11	10	10	2	2	2	8	8	1
64		27	20		-	6	5.0		12	3	3	3	3	9	9	8	8	2	2	2	7	7	1
63		27	21		-	5	3.8		9	3	3	3	3	7	7	5	5	2	2	2	4	4	1
62		26	21		-	6	2.5		6	2	2	2	2	4	4	3	3	1	1	1	2	2	1
61		26	22		-	5	1.3		4	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
60		26	23		-	4	0.6		2	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0
59		25	23		-	5	0.2		1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
58		25	24		-	4	0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
57		24	24		-	5	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0
56		24	25		-	4	0.0		0			0		0	0	0	0		0		0	0
55		23	25		-	5	0.0		0	0				0	0	0	0				0	0
54		23	26		-	4	No		0					0	0	0	0				0	0
53		23	27		-	3	No										0				0
52		23	28		-	2	No		0								0
4	-51						No

Total:							3.3	%	7.8	1.7	1.8	1.7	1.6	6.4	6.5	5.5	5.6	1.4	1.4	1.3	4.8	4.7	1.1

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3	-1.1
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Minnesota	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0
Vegas vs Arizona	-0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs San Jose	-0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

88	-110						100
87		39	9		-	5	99		1
86		39	10		-	4	100		0
85		38	10		-	5	98	1	0		0
84		37	10		-	6	99	0	1
83		37	11		-	5	97	1	1		0
82		36	11		-	6	95	3	2		0
81		36	12		-	5	92	5	3		1
80		36	13		-	4	88	7	4		1
79		35	13		-	5	81	11	6	0	2		0
78		34	13		-	6	72	15	9	0	4	0			0
77		34	14		-	5	62	19	12	0	6	0	0		0
76		33	14		-	6	50	24	16	1	9	0	0		0
75		33	15		-	5	36	28	21	1	12	0	0		0				0
74		32	15		-	6	24	30	24	3	17	1	1		1				0
73		32	16		-	5	14	27	26	6	22	2	2	0	2	0	0		0
72		31	16		-	6	6	22	24	10	25	5	4	0	4	0	0		0
71		31	17		-	5	2	15	19	14	24	10	8	0	7	0	0		0				0
70		30	17		-	6	1	8	13	16	19	16	13	1	12	1	0		1	0	0		0	0
69		30	18		-	5	0	4	6	16	11	18	18	3	17	2	2	0	2	0	0		0	0
68		29	18		-	6	0	1	2	12	4	15	19	8	20	7	5	0	6	0	0		0	0
67		29	19		-	5		0	1	7	1	9	15	12	17	12	12	1	11	1	1		1	0
66		28	19		-	6		0	0	3	0	4	7	14	9	15	18	3	17	3	3	0	3	0	0
65		28	20		-	5		0	0	1	0	1	2	10	3	12	19	9	19	8	8	0	8	1	0	0
64		27	20		-	6				0		0	0	5	0	5	11	13	13	13	16	2	15	5	1	0	0
63		27	21		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	1	4	11	5	12	20	6	19	14	5	1	0	0	0
62		26	21		-	6							0	0		0	1	6	1	6	14	11	15	21	15	7	2	0	0	0
61		26	22		-	5								0		0	0	2	0	2	6	11	6	17	22	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
60		25	22		-	6								0			0	1		0	1	7	1	7	16	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
59		25	23		-	5								0				0		0	0	3	0	1	5	13	20	22	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
58		24	23		-	6								0				0		0	0	1	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
57		24	24		-	5								0				0			0	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	15	22	22	17	9	3	1	0	0
56		23	24		-	6												0				0			0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0
55		23	25		-	5												0				0			0	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	25	20	11	3	0
54		22	25		-	6																0			0			0	0	1	5	12	23	27	21	9	2
53		22	26		-	5																0						0	0	0	2	6	15	26	29	18	5
52		21	26		-	6																0							0	0	0	2	8	20	31	28	11
51		21	27		-	5																									0	1	3	12	28	36	20
50		20	27		-	6																								0	0	0	1	6	21	40	31
49		20	28		-	5																										0	0	3	14	39	44
48		19	28		-	6																											0	1	8	34	57
47		19	29		-	5																												0	5	28	67
46		18	29		-	6																												0	2	21	77
45		18	30		-	5																												0	1	16	83
44		17	30		-	6																													0	11	88
43		17	31		-	5																													0	7	92
42		16	31		-	6																													0	5	94
41		16	32		-	5																														2	98
40		16	33		-	4																														3	97
39		15	33		-	5																														0	100
4	-38																																				100

Total:							4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	2	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2