Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 84.7%
31 points   14 7-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Florida 2 Anaheim 3 +0.3
Detroit 4 St. Louis 3 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Colorado vs Pittsburgh+0.3*-0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
-0.1-0.2-0.1*+0.1+0.1+0.2
Toronto vs San Jose-0.1-0.1*-0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus vs Minnesota-0.2-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.3
Ottawa vs NY Rangers+0.3*-0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.2
Boston vs NY Islanders+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.1
Nashville vs Arizona-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.3
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo*+0.0-0.1-0.1*-0.1*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-147In99.9%100693*
124449-5In99.11000331*
1234410-4In98.41000555*
1224310-5In97.8991920*
1214210-6In95.59911,518*
1204211-5In94.298202,513*
1194111-6In91.397304,040*
1184112-5In86.594506,194*
1174012-6In82.492809,221*
1164013-5In75.78911013,528*
1153913-6In67.98415118,870*
1143914-5In58.77920127,022*
1133814-6In48.67227136,453*
1123815-5In38.064342047,731*
1113715-6In28.056413062,021*
1103716-5In19.046495078,513*
1093616-6In12.0375670096,570*
1083516-7In6.62862100116,587*
1073517-6In3.320661300137,562*
1063417-7In1.414681710159,780*
1053418-6In0.58682220181,683*
1043318-7In0.256428300201,021*
1033319-6In0.025834500216,814*
1023219-7100.0%0.0151398100231,746*
1013220-6100.00.00434312100241,295*
1003120-7100.0No03445182000244,771*
993121-699.9No02645244100245,736*
983021-799.5No0184230630000240,454*
973022-698.6No012373596100230,990*
962922-796.1No08303810103000216,649*
952923-690.9No4233810167200200,229*
942823-781.9No21635920134100181,018*
932824-668.9No11029722209200160,115*
922724-752.7No0623420261551000138,790*
912725-636.3No03162152823102000118,905*
902625-722.1No02101102528176100098,843*
892626-611.8No0160519292512300080,935*
882526-75.8No0030212262919710064,977*
872527-62.4No0010161930261340051,649*
862427-70.9No010031225312071039,854*
852428-60.2No00016183027143030,220*
842328-70.1No0003112631217122,023*
832329-60.0No0001619312912216,340*
822229-7OutNo00312283419411,348*
812230-6OutNo01822342788,155*
802130-7OutNo004153334145,490*
792131-6OutNo02102741203,728*
782031-7OutNo162243292,498*
772032-6OutNo0031742381,631*
761932-7OutNo2124046954*
751933-6OutNo063558606*
741833-7OutNo52966351*
731834-6OutNo62371249*
721835-5OutNo121780128*
711634-8OutNo109069*
701736-5OutNo128849*
691636-6OutNo79330*
31-68OutNo100363*
Total:84.7%3.6%830241535543211004,311,328

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTorontoTampa BayBuffaloBostonColumbusNY IslandersPittsburghCarolinaNY RangersMontrealNew JerseyFloridaDetroitPhiladelphiaOttawa
147580-07.0%3461041291091236713
134505-3NoYes
133506-2No333333
132485-5NoYes
131486-4No5050
130487-325.01313131313131313
129466-6No2020202020
128467-55.0555105155151055555
127468-46.3464241541941548442
126458-511.461510108591014410721
125459-46.445917679681243333
124449-56.64558579861568742
1234410-45.2436107971071457533
1224310-58.6337106999101066723
1214210-67.034610899961257623
1204211-57.534610799881268622
1194111-68.333711889881256623
1184112-57.634612799981157623
1174012-67.434711799981257522
1164013-57.734712799881256623
1153913-67.835712799871256523
1143914-57.645813799871146522
1133814-67.745814688871146522
1123815-57.545915688871046522
1113715-67.3561016688761046422
1103716-57.256101668876945412
1093616-67.467111778876935412
1083516-77.367111878876834412
1073517-67.167111879876734311
1063417-76.967111789976734311
1053418-67.0671117910986733311
1043318-76.767101510111086633211
1033319-66.75691411121197533211
1023219-76.655812131313107542211
1013220-66.545710141414118442211
1003120-76.44469161515118342111
993121-66.23357181616129251120
983021-76.13345191716129251120
973022-65.94444201716139151120
962922-75.65433191716129150020
952923-65.26643181514118140020
942823-74.5774216131297040010
932824-63.887421210975030010
922724-72.7764197754020010
912725-61.9553165432010010
902625-71.2332133321010000
892626-60.6221021111000000
882627-50.3110011110000
872527-60.10000000000000
862528-50.0000000000000
852428-60.000000000000
842328-7No000000000
832329-60.0000000
31-82No
Total:5.5%4.75.06.28.411.711.110.78.46.33.53.41.91.51.20.7
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Colorado vs Pittsburgh-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs Minnesota+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Boston vs NY Islanders-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Ottawa vs NY Rangers-0.1-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
126-147100
125459-4991
124449-59910
123439-69810
1224310-59811
1214210-69531
1204211-594420
1194111-691530
1184112-586850
1174012-68210800
1164013-576131100
1153913-6681715010
1143914-55920200100
1133814-64924260100
1123815-538263302000
1113715-628284013000
1103716-519274724000
1093616-6122552351100
1083516-7722576622000
1073517-631758973300000
1063417-7112561374601000
1053418-61850176610010000
1043318-705432157160200000
1033319-602342438221311000
1023219-70125262729242201000
1013220-60017261634343501000
1003120-701124043564490200000
993121-6062002331035150311000
983021-703150128132622152300000
973022-60111002116152726360100
962922-70170131703304551013000
952923-604071502297461427200
942823-702041201231126164134100
932824-6010190161315157209200
922724-700005091304109241661000
912725-600304110261023241341000
902625-700102801281726211031000
892626-6001150015922261993100
882526-7000300241323251883100
872527-60001001151523241783100
862427-7001000271523241783100
852428-60000027162324178310
842328-7000027162324177200
832329-60000128172424157200
822229-70013918252315610
812230-600141020262212410
802130-701513232720920
792131-600171627271661
782031-70129202926112
772032-6014152631185
761932-72102035258
751933-60417303315
741833-70111243826
731834-616243832
721835-52154241
711634-8173358
701736-562469
691636-63763
31-68100
Total:4518112214612932231432211110000000