Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Lost to Edmonton 2-3, playoff odds down 5.6 to 69.6%
8 points   3 1-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 -4.0
-0.4
-1.8
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 *+0.1
-0.1
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 *+0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
San Jose vs Columbus+0.4*-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
Calgary vs Carolina+0.3*+0.0*-0.1*-0.1*-0.2-0.3
Boston vs NY Islanders+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3*-0.1
Detroit vs Pittsburgh+0.2-0.3*-0.1*-0.3-0.4*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-160In99.8%1001,035*
1235415-7In98.7991470*
1225315-8In99.310000753*
1215316-7In98.9100001,192*
1205216-8In98.299001,879*
1195217-7In97.899002,760*
1185117-8In96.199103,964*
1175118-7In94.398105,673*
1165018-8In91.698207,982*
1155019-7In88.1963111,052*
1144919-8In83.29442014,820*
1134920-7In77.49262019,598*
1124820-8In69.88983025,750*
1114720-9In61.284115033,009*
1104721-8In51.6791470041,535*
1094621-9In40.7731890051,065*
1084622-8In30.16422131062,803*
1074522-9In20.75627171074,677*
1064523-8In12.64631222088,312*
1054423-9In6.8363426300102,119*
1044424-8100.0%3.22736325000117,128*
1034324-9In1.2183636810130,744*
1024325-8100.00.412344012200143,069*
1014225-9100.00.173143173000156,256*
1004226-8100.00.032643225100167,349*
994126-999.90.012041288100175,532*
984127-899.6No1143732123000182,220*
974027-998.8No01031361661000185,424*
964028-896.6No06243620103000186,578*
953928-991.7No031834201672000184,791*
943929-882.8No0212291921124100179,336*
933829-969.1No0182414231993000171,473*
923830-852.3No0417921241662000162,459*
913730-934.9No021251625231241000151,660*
903731-820.5No01721022262092000137,907*
893631-910.2No00415152626166100124,778*
883632-84.7No00202920282312300110,398*
873532-91.9No0010141425281971096,977*
863533-80.7No000027192926133084,314*
853433-90.2No000014132631206171,020*
843434-80.1No00001719312711259,490*
833334-90.0No001313293318348,690*
823335-80.0No000018233625639,449*
813235-9OutNo00141635341031,640*
803236-8OutNo0021131401625,176*
793136-9OutNo01726432319,216*
783137-8OutNo00420453114,880*
773037-9OutNo00215443911,527*
763038-8OutNo011042478,269*
752938-9OutNo00738556,099*
742939-8OutNo0432644,467*
732839-9OutNo327703,097*
722840-8OutNo122762,122*
712740-9OutNo118811,507*
702741-8OutNo01684977*
692742-7OutNo01189622*
682642-8OutNo0892417*
672542-9OutNo595287*
662543-8OutNo595169*
652443-9OutNo298101*
642444-8OutNo19967*
632344-9OutNo29850*
622547-4OutNo10021*
612346-7OutNo148614*
8-60OutNo100325*
Total:69.6%5.3%1212181566655443213,748,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayOttawaMontrealDetroitPittsburghColumbusNY IslandersNew JerseyNY RangersTorontoBostonFloridaPhiladelphiaCarolinaBuffalo
160760-010.7%5586799877118441
1356110-5NoYes
1335910-7NoYes
1325911-6No5050
1315912-5No13131325131313
1305812-615.41515888815888
1295510-1115.816555551611111155
1285612-89.1312912219936636
1275613-710.25271085585105101252
1265614-62.8788572612115761063
1255514-710.195961177411966433
1245414-86.8657589996946653
1235415-711.17767116797955652
1225315-810.5556888897778742
1215316-711.3676799788776741
1205216-811.1577688768687752
1195217-710.0666787887867651
1185117-810.7677788787777761
1175118-710.6667798887777662
1165018-89.9677679988776751
1155019-710.1666688887777762
1144919-810.4667788888776751
1134920-79.8666698888776752
1124820-89.7666788988777751
1114720-99.6666699998666761
1104721-89.8666699998676751
1094621-99.7666699998666751
1084622-89.7566610101098666751
1074522-99.66566101010108665751
1064523-89.55566101010109555751
1054423-99.15555111111109555751
1044424-89.35555121212119454751
1034324-99.04444121212119444751
1024325-88.944441313131210443751
1014225-98.644441414141210333851
1004226-88.533331414141310332850
994126-98.433331515141310222850
984127-88.143331515151310222850
974027-97.944331515141310222850
964028-87.544431414141210222750
953928-97.15444131313119221740
943929-86.35544121211108211640
933829-95.25443109986111430
923830-83.9443377764111320
913730-92.6332255443110210
903731-81.5221133322000110
893631-90.8111111111000100
883632-80.4000011110000000
873633-70.1000000000000000
863533-80.000000000000000
853433-90.000000000000000
843333-100.00000000000
833435-70.0000000
823537-4No000
8-81No
Total:5.9%3.43.33.13.09.19.08.98.06.52.22.22.05.03.50.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.9
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose vs Columbus-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Boston vs NY Islanders-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Detroit vs Pittsburgh-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-160100
1255514-7991
1245414-81000
1235415-79911
1225315-899000
1215316-799100
1205216-898100
1195217-798200
1185117-896310
1175118-794410
1165018-892620
1155019-7888301
1144919-883114020
1134920-7771560200
1124820-8701980300
1114720-961231005000
1104721-8522813070000
1094621-9413217190000
1084622-830342121210100
1074522-9213524315100100
1064523-81333255183102000
1054423-97292591952030000
1044424-8323241319840500000
1034324-91172016171270800100
1024325-80111520131610110102000
1014225-90610218181421331030000
1004226-80352041817414530501000
994126-90131721417813960801000
984127-81113010141310139011130000
974027-9009061016615142133601000
964028-8006035172131651371013000
953928-900301215110159101014262000
943929-80020111061113613165124100
933829-901007036152121310171031000
923830-8000401314188131817931000
913730-90002011005313142117931000
903731-800100702198182218931000
893631-900000401053102024181041000
883632-8000020021411202419114100
873532-90001001015122024201251000
863533-800000001512202420114100
853433-900000001512212520114100
843434-800000026132325199300
833334-900002716252617710
823335-8000001391927241341
813235-900141223292181
803236-800027172928143
793136-90013112533236
783137-8001619343011
773037-900313303717
763038-80017254225
752938-9004194333
742939-802134143
732839-901103753
722840-8063361
712740-9042769
702741-8022275
692742-711782
682642-8011287
672542-90991
662543-81793
652443-9496
642444-8199
632344-9298
622547-4100
612346-71486
8-60100
Total:566645554444434244333222221110