Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 64%
10 points   4 3-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 -4.0
-0.4
-1.8
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 *+0.1
-0.1
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 *+0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.4
-0.1
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +0.3
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*-0.2
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-156InYes1006,197*
1245413-6In99.7%10001,438*
1235313-7In99.4100002,524*
1225314-6In99.1100003,862*
1215214-7In98.8100006,621*
1205215-6In98.0991010,600*
1195115-7In97.1991116,700*
1185015-8In95.5981125,306*
1175016-7In93.4972138,168*
1164916-8In90.19632056,094*
1154917-7In86.29443080,843*
1144817-8In80.691540113,832*
1134818-7In73.888750158,361*
1124718-8In65.5831070215,821*
1114719-7In55.97813900288,232*
1104619-8In45.671171200377,307*
1094620-7In35.163211500487,173*
1084520-8In25.055261910613,175*
1074521-7In16.1453024100764,404*
1064421-8In9.3363428200934,601*
1054422-7In4.72736343001,118,385*
1044322-8100.0%2.019373950001,314,994*
1034222-9100.00.712364381001,525,335*
1024223-8100.00.273346121001,740,177*
1014123-9100.00.0429481720001,947,184*
1004124-8100.00.0224482240002,147,108*
994024-999.90.01184628610002,324,669*
984025-899.70.001342339200002,478,231*
973925-999.0No09363712410002,599,324*
963926-897.0No063039148200002,678,274*
953826-992.6No0323391512610002,719,104*
943827-884.7No021636141711410002,716,088*
933727-972.5No11131111917820002,669,285*
923728-856.8No00725718221561002,579,391*
913628-940.4No041941423221130002,456,793*
903629-825.8No021329212618710002,303,622*
893529-914.8No018151627251340002,123,948*
883530-87.7No005021023292081001,925,562*
873430-93.7No003015172927143001,720,153*
863431-81.6No001002112531227101,514,939*
853331-90.7No01001618312913201,311,116*
843332-80.3No00000312273320501,116,394*
833232-90.1No000001721352881938,443*
823233-80.0No000003143234142774,299*
813133-90.0No0000192738213629,151*
803134-80.0No000152140285504,964*
793034-90.0No00031538359398,049*
783035-8OutNo00110344113309,254*
772935-90.0No00016294519235,673*
762936-8OutNo004234825177,709*
752836-9OutNo002184832131,025*
742837-8OutNo0113463995,627*
732737-9OutNo019434768,482*
722738-8OutNo006395448,264*
712638-9OutNo004346233,950*
702639-8OutNo03306722,996*
692539-9OutNo01257415,289*
682540-8OutNo01207910,129*
672541-7OutNo0016836,679*
662441-8OutNo013874,199*
652442-7OutNo010902,702*
642342-8OutNo08921,650*
632343-7OutNo694997*
622243-8OutNo496611*
612143-9OutNo298360*
602245-6OutNo298202*
592145-7OutNo298126*
582045-8OutNo19969*
10-57OutNo1004,526*
Total:64.0%2.9%6102017556766542153,646,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghTampa BayDetroitOttawaMontrealTorontoNY IslandersNew JerseyPhiladelphiaNY RangersBostonFloridaColumbusCarolinaBuffalo
156730-08.4%39810101167661010321
138627-4NoYes
134598-6No5050
133588-7No6733
1325910-47.78158158888888
1315810-5No158888882388
1305811-47.744812812412191244
1295610-77.95510115146388101025
1285611-66.14911310117911510534
1275511-78.36126111012575596521
1265512-68.248797117768109411
1255412-76.849889116776127421
1245413-68.657691010787799410
1235313-78.33899109777698421
1225314-68.9477899888799521
1215214-78.9478999877799421
1205215-67.94789910777799521
1195115-77.94778910787799421
1185015-88.64779910887799421
1175016-78.2477999787799521
1164916-88.24779910887799421
1154917-78.2477999888799421
1144817-88.1477999888798421
1134818-78.2477899888898521
1124718-88.1577899888898521
1114719-78.1577889988888521
1104619-88.1577889998888520
1094620-78.06778881099887520
1084520-88.066678810109977510
1074521-77.976677711109976510
1064421-87.88667771111101066510
1054422-77.79566661211101065510
1044322-87.511556661312111155510
1034222-97.512555551413111144510
1024223-87.413444541413121244510
1014123-97.215444441514121233510
1004124-87.016333331614131333610
994024-96.917333331615131322610
984025-86.818333321615131322620
973925-96.619333321615131311620
963926-86.319443221514121211610
953826-95.919443321413111111510
943827-85.318543321211101011410
933727-94.516543211098811410
923728-83.51343221876611310
913628-92.5933211554400210
903629-81.6622110433300100
893630-70.9311100222200100
883530-80.5200000111100000
873531-70.2100000110000000
863431-80.1000000000000000
853432-70.0000000000000000
843332-80.0000000000000000
833333-70.000000000000000
823233-80.000000000
813234-70.00000000
803235-6No0000000
793135-7No000
783439-0No
773036-7No0
10-76No
Total:4.4%10.53.02.92.62.52.29.18.37.57.41.81.73.40.90.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.9
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 -0.1
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 +0.1
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 +0.1
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 -0.0
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125-156100
1245413-610000
1235313-799000
1225314-699100
1215214-799100
1205215-698110
1195115-797211
1185015-895311
1175016-7934210
1164916-8906320
1154917-7868403000
1144817-88111504000
1134818-77414705000
1124718-865181007000
1114719-7562213090000
1104619-84625170110000
1094620-735282011400000
1084520-8253024218111000
1074521-716292642021010000
1064421-89262762242020000
1054422-752226102364030000
1044322-821723142110705000000
1034222-91111917171411070001000
1024223-80713201217161101101000
1014123-9048217182131232020000
1004124-80251931623712540400000
994024-9012161122112119806010000
984025-80011207171871113181200000
973925-900904112241218393401000
963926-800602622111207957020000
953826-9003013190718137811262000
943827-8002001150413194101251041000
933727-90100110282229109149310000
923728-8000007014210761216168310000
913628-9000400117042121219168310000
903629-800020012021871621179310000
893529-9001008010531019221810410000
883530-80000050002141120231910410000
873430-9000030001015122124191041000
863431-80001000001513212419103100
853331-900100000261423251892000
843332-80000000027162525167100
833232-9000000013919272413410
823233-80000001412232821920
813133-9000000161627281650
803134-800002922312491
793034-9000015152931163
783035-8000292435235
772935-9000151835319
762936-8000312323815
752836-90018274222
742837-8005214429
732737-9002164438
722738-801114246
712638-90173755
702639-80043362
692539-90032869
682540-8022375
672541-7011980
662441-801485
652442-701189
642342-80991
632343-7793
622243-8496
612143-9398
602245-6298
592145-7298
582045-8199
10-57100
Total:344644673356233334433333322210