Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.7 to 66.5%
36 points   15 10-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Winnipeg 2 Boston 1 +0.6
Ottawa 6 Anaheim 2 -0.5
Detroit 1 NY Islanders 2 -0.2
-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
New Jersey vs Washington-5.9-1.1-1.1+3.6+4.2+4.3
-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Carolina vs NY Rangers+1.0+0.2+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Florida+0.5-0.1-0.1-0.8-0.8-0.8
Montreal vs Ottawa+0.2-0.4-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.0
NY Islanders vs Tampa Bay-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.3
-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Philadelphia+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.0
Columbus vs Chicago-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
128-138InYes10067,451*
127444-3In96.7%98260*
126434-4In99.4100160*
125435-3In99.31000416*
124425-4In97.49901930*
123426-3In95.098022,210*
122416-4In92.497034,901*
121406-5In88.7951410,385*
120407-4In84.69316021,019*
119397-5In78.59118041,389*
118398-4In70.386212078,590*
117388-5In61.58131600143,028*
116389-4In51.37542000250,033*
115379-5In40.568626000427,328*
1143710-4In30.260732010703,291*
1133610-5In20.8519380201,123,961*
1123611-4In13.141114403001,746,625*
1113511-5In7.432135014002,623,463*
1103411-6In3.724145427003,837,522*
1093412-5In1.6161456410005,452,128*
1083312-6In0.61113556140007,531,181*
1073313-5In0.261152102001010,127,675*
1063213-6In0.03945142512013,263,001*
1053214-5100.0%0.027371931230016,917,619*
1043114-6100.00.015272335450021,036,357*
1033115-5100.00.0031825387800025,489,277*
1023015-6100.00.002112537121200030,135,979*
1013016-599.9No0162334191610034,763,695*
1002916-699.8No01320272620300039,122,800*
992917-599.3No001152033245100042,978,989*
982817-698.1No0001113372610200046,118,702*
972818-595.5No00087382615400048,317,234*
962718-690.5No000543723218100049,440,874*
952719-582.6No003233192614300049,444,552*
942619-671.5No002127142822610048,320,873*
932620-558.2No0010229262812200046,149,555*
922520-644.1No0010175223319400043,081,062*
912521-530.9No000122163327810039,300,941*
902421-620.1No0008111303314200035,064,364*
892422-512.0No000506253722500030,582,877*
882322-66.7No00303183629910026,082,745*
872323-53.5No02011132361520021,738,955*
862223-61.7No01017263922400017,727,413*
852224-50.8No01003183930810014,127,178*
842124-60.3No000021234361420011,002,586*
832125-50.1No000172840214008,391,804*
822025-60.1No000042040297006,242,132*
812026-50.0No000213363512104,545,032*
801926-60.0No00018304019203,238,102*
791927-50.0No0004234126502,253,083*
781827-60.0No0002163934911,531,911*
771828-50.0No00011034401411,017,698*
761728-6OutNo0062743213661,528*
751729-5OutNo0032044285419,364*
741629-6OutNo011441359259,203*
731630-5OutNo019364213155,881*
721530-6OutNo00530461992,501*
711531-5OutNo0323472753,048*
701431-6OutNo0116473530,080*
691432-5OutNo111434416,508*
681332-6OutNo0741518,848*
671333-5OutNo0534624,597*
661233-6OutNo0328692,330*
651234-5OutNo221771,162*
641235-4OutNo11882557*
631135-5OutNo01387245*
621136-4OutNo892130*
611137-3OutNo79342*
601138-2OutNo69416*
591038-3OutNo1008*
58938-4OutNo25754*
36-56OutNo10067,412*
Total:66.5%0.2%1168101811111110742100813,394,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghTampa BayNY IslandersTorontoDetroitNY RangersMontrealFloridaOttawaBostonPhiladelphiaNew JerseyColumbusCarolinaBuffalo
138510-05.2%136910151615111121100
130452-4NoYes
129453-3No101010202030
128443-4No371077373207
127444-33.3532082071381222
126434-45.613389181615171111
125435-36.70587913171512102100
124425-46.71461010121616139210
123426-34.4146101014161412931000
122416-45.0147910141514121031100
121406-54.7147101015161312921100
120407-45.0147101114161311921100
119397-54.9147101114161311921100
118398-44.9158101114161311921100
117388-54.9158111114161211821100
116389-44.9159111213161210821100
115379-54.8169111213161110821100
1143710-44.7161012131315109721000
1133610-54.6171112131315109721000
1123611-44.517111314131598620000
1113511-54.418121414121587510000
1103411-64.319131415121587510000
1093412-54.2210131515111476410000
1083312-64.1211141616111466410000
1073313-54.0212141616101465310000
1063213-63.9313141717101355310000
1053214-53.831414171791354300000
1043114-63.741514171791344200000
1033115-53.641614181781243200000
1023015-63.551714181781243200000
1013016-53.461814171771133200000
1002916-63.381914171671033200000
992917-53.2112015161671032100000
982817-63.114201515156922100000
972818-52.917201414135722100000
962718-62.720181313125611100000
952719-52.422161211104511100000
942619-62.1221410983411000000
932620-51.720118762311000000
922520-61.31686542200000000
912521-50.91255331100000000
902421-60.6833221100000000
892422-50.3422110100000000
882322-60.2211110000000000
872323-50.1111000000000000
862223-60.1000000000000000
852224-50.0000000000000000
842124-60.0000000000000
832125-50.00000000000
822126-40.00000000000
812026-50.00000000000
802027-40.00000000000
791826-70.0000000
781928-40.00000
771828-5No0
36-76No
Total:2.2%10.611.99.510.09.64.36.01.81.61.00.10.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 1 NY Islanders 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
New Jersey vs Washington+0.8+0.2+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6
Carolina vs NY Rangers-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
NY Islanders vs Tampa Bay+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
128-138100
127444-39722
126434-4991
125435-39900
124425-497201
123426-395302
122416-492503
121406-5896140
120407-48591600
119397-579121800
118398-47016201200
117388-561203016000
116389-451244020000
115379-54128602510000
1143710-43030703020100
1133610-52130903440200
1123611-41328110386003000
1113511-57251213911104000
1103411-642012138162070000
1093412-5215112342240101000
1083312-61101032828601310000
1073313-5068420321001730100
1063213-60354133214020510200
1053214-50234730181229203000
1043114-6012332420321144050000
1033115-50012117205182070700000
1023015-6000201118713241201010000
1013016-50010613108251811331000
1002916-60010391142324315520000
992917-500001510218276159501000
982817-6000002911326111413912000
972818-500001707221710161324000
962718-600000504162161716581000
952719-50000302102331617101340000
942619-6000201522112141519820000
932620-500010031908918221551000
922520-60001001150551720221130000
912521-500000120221416261972000
902421-6000008011101024261551000
892422-500005000651828231130000
882322-60003000321125291961000
872323-5002001151729271330000
862223-6001001021024312281000
852224-5001000015163029154000
842124-600000002923322382000
832125-500000141530301541000
822025-60000002923332392000
812026-50000014163030154000
801926-600000292433238100
791927-500001416313015300
781827-60000292533227100
771828-50001518322913300
761728-600211273420610
751729-500162034281010
741629-60031330341730
731630-5001724362560
721530-6004173532111
711531-5002113038182
701431-60162441263
691432-50031740346
681332-6011137419
671333-5017304814
661233-604245220
651234-52165527
641235-41115038
631135-5195139
621136-454748
611036-523662
601138-24456
591038-33863
58938-42575
36-56100
Total:011124444799565576654321100000