Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.4 to 70%
8 points   3 1-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 -4.0
-0.4
-1.8
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 *+0.1
-0.1
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 *+0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.1*-0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.2*-0.0
-0.1*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1*+0.0+0.1
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.4
-0.1
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +0.3
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*-0.2
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-160InYes1001,210*
1255514-7In99.8%1000460*
1245414-8In99.2100649*
1235415-7In99.810001,068*
1225315-8In99.3100001,646*
1215316-7In98.799002,504*
1205216-8In98.2100003,838*
1195217-7In97.299105,648*
1185117-8In96.099108,212*
1175118-7In93.9981111,803*
1165018-8In90.8972116,605*
1155019-7In87.19631022,702*
1144919-8In82.39442030,642*
1134819-9In76.29163040,584*
1124820-8In68.28884053,031*
1114720-9In59.183116067,757*
1104721-8In48.4771580084,920*
1094621-9In37.770191100105,757*
1084622-8In27.462231410128,034*
1074522-9In18.153271910153,122*
1064523-8In10.9433124200179,331*
1054423-9In5.6333429400208,478*
1044424-8100.0%2.52435346000235,637*
1034324-9100.00.91635389100265,007*
1024325-8100.00.310324214200291,457*
1014225-9100.00.16294319300315,688*
1004226-8100.00.032343246100338,095*
994126-999.90.0118402992000355,092*
984127-899.5No0133634133000366,854*
974027-998.6No083036177100373,042*
964028-896.3No05233621113100374,660*
953928-991.2No031734211772000369,164*
943929-882.3No02112919221341000360,045*
933829-968.8No172314241992000344,263*
923830-852.1No0417922241661000323,798*
913730-935.1No02115172623124100300,693*
903731-820.7No01721023271982000274,436*
893631-910.7No00415162726155100247,612*
883632-85.0No002021022292210200219,712*
873532-92.0No0101515272817510192,440*
863533-80.7No0000292130241020165,023*
853433-90.2No0000141528301740140,356*
843434-80.1No000002923332581116,909*
833334-90.0No0001516323114296,445*
823335-80.0No000210273621478,527*
813235-90.0No00016213728762,384*
803236-8OutNo0031536351148,404*
793136-9OutNo0021031411637,812*
783137-8OutNo01626452228,840*
773037-9OutNo0320472921,823*
763038-8OutNo0215463715,949*
752938-9OutNo0110434611,633*
742939-8OutNo1740538,421*
732839-9OutNo00535605,889*
722840-8OutNo0330674,123*
712740-9OutNo225732,926*
702741-8OutNo120791,954*
692641-9OutNo115841,321*
682642-8OutNo01585919*
672542-9OutNo1090535*
662442-10OutNo793330*
652443-9OutNo595206*
642343-10OutNo496136*
632445-7OutNo19969*
622446-6OutNo69448*
612346-7OutNo59541*
8-60OutNo100661*
Total:70.0%5.1%1111181676665443217,527,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayOttawaDetroitMontrealColumbusNY IslandersPittsburghNew JerseyNY RangersTorontoFloridaPhiladelphiaBostonCarolinaBuffalo
160760-010.0%8668798767971031
135587-11NoYes
134588-10No5050
1335910-7No333333
1326012-414.31429141429
1315811-76.36619666625666
1305812-67.7884881541215884
1295712-73.921042616146428101422
1285612-87.45411961451012466611
1275613-77.83686897108868561
1265513-811.536571099912696521
1255514-714.17758671088579742
1245414-88.84486881197878741
1235415-710.06876107789776741
1225315-810.3767788899876641
1215316-79.7677779977777641
1205216-89.5667699988778641
1195217-710.3667888888877641
1185117-810.6667788988777641
1175118-710.3666798898767741
1165018-810.1666799998777641
1155019-79.4667799998777741
1144919-89.5676699998778641
1134819-99.7666699999777641
1124820-89.8666799998767631
1114720-99.7666699998767641
1104721-89.666669101098667641
1094621-99.5666610101098667641
1084622-89.55666101010109667531
1074522-99.55566111111109657531
1064523-89.25555121211109557431
1054423-99.05555121211119557431
1044424-89.04455131312119447430
1034324-98.844441414131210447330
1024325-88.744441515131210338330
1014225-98.533331515141310338230
1004226-88.333331616141310328230
994126-98.133331616141310228230
984127-88.033331616141310228230
974027-97.744431616141310228130
964028-87.544441615131210217130
953928-97.05544151412119216120
943929-86.25544131311107215120
933829-95.155441010986114120
923830-83.8443388664113110
913730-92.5332255443102010
903731-81.5221133222001000
893631-90.8111121111001000
883632-80.4000011110000000
873633-70.1000000000000000
863533-80.0000000000000000
853534-70.00000000000000
843434-80.00000000000
833334-90.0000000
823335-80.000000
813336-7No00
8-80No
Total:5.8%3.43.33.23.110.110.08.98.26.62.22.05.01.82.00.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.9
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 -0.1
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 +0.1
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 +0.1
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 -0.0
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-160100
1255514-71000
1245414-8991
1235415-710000
1225315-899000
1215316-799100
1205216-898100
1195217-797210
1185117-896310
1175118-794411
1165018-891621
1155019-7879310
1144919-8821240200
1134819-97615603000
1124820-86819804000
1114720-959241106000
1104721-84829140800000
1094621-938321811100000
1084622-827352121310100
1074522-9183524316210100
1064523-811322561931020000
1054423-96282592063040000
1044424-832222132010506000000
1034324-9116181717148091001000
1024325-80101320121711112112000
1014225-9068207191521431030000
1004226-80351931817515630601000
994126-9012161141691310609120000
984127-8011209131491410112230000
974027-90080581651514213460100
964028-8005024162131651381113100
953928-900301214191410101114272000
943929-800101100510146131661251000
933829-901007026152121311171031000
923830-8000401313198141817931000
913730-900020011005314142117931000
903731-80001006021108182317931000
893631-9000040105311202318931000
883632-80000200214122124181041000
873532-900100101513212419104100
863533-800000002613222419103100
853433-90000000261422251893000
843434-8000000027162425177200
833334-90000013918262414510
823335-8000014112228221030
813235-9000151526281861
803236-800029203025112
793136-90014142831184
783137-800282234267
773037-9001416333413
763038-8000211293919
752938-9017234228
742939-8003184236
732839-902134145
722840-80183754
712740-90063262
702741-8032671
692641-9022078
682642-8021979
672542-911485
662442-10892
652443-90793
642343-10793
632445-7397
622446-6694
612346-7793
8-60100
Total:565645554444434344333222221110