Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 25.6%
21 points   10 9-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Detroit 3 Buffalo 1 -0.1
Columbus 2 NY Rangers 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Washington vs Minnesota+3.6+3.6+3.1-0.9-0.8-4.5
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Calgary-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.6
Buffalo vs Carolina+0.5+0.0+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3
Pittsburgh vs Chicago-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.5
Tampa Bay vs NY Islanders+0.3-0.0-0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
Winnipeg vs New Jersey+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Ottawa vs Arizona-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.4
San Jose vs Boston+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
Los Angeles vs Florida+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
Montreal vs Toronto+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
127-145InYes10013,980*
126518-3In50.0%50502
124-125InYes10018*
123499-4In95.295521*
122478-7In90.991933*
1214810-4In88.1891184*
1204710-5In85.28614155*
1194610-6In84.285141373*
1184510-7In76.178220687*
1174511-6In71.7752401,327*
1164411-7In66.5702912,407*
1154412-6In58.5643524,459*
1144312-7In51.55840207,900*
1134313-6In43.451463013,455*
1124213-7In34.543515022,736*
1114214-6In26.8375670037,653*
1104114-7In19.5306010060,225*
1094115-6In13.42462141093,965*
1084015-7In8.3186318100143,903*
1073915-8In4.6136223200216,369*
1063916-7In2.295928300315,582*
1053816-8In0.955434600453,878*
1043817-7In0.334839910638,470*
1033717-8100.0%0.12404313200877,062*
1023718-7100.00.013245193001,178,765*
1013618-8100.00.0024442561001,556,029*
1003619-799.90.0017413191002,009,949*
993519-899.80.001236361430002,548,830*
983520-799.3No0729382061003,165,349*
973420-897.9No042137251020003,848,348*
963421-794.9No0215342817410004,589,501*
953321-888.9No19282724920005,380,078*
943322-778.7No0521232916510006,172,175*
933222-864.4No03141730241020006,951,812*
923223-747.4No01911272917510007,683,024*
913123-830.9No00562031241130008,329,651*
903124-717.4No002212273019610008,859,279*
893024-88.5No001161930261330009,247,289*
883025-73.5No000031225302071009,482,952*
872925-81.2No000016183027133009,531,647*
862926-70.4No00003112532217109,405,072*
852826-80.1No00001618312813209,110,706*
842827-70.0No00000311273320508,665,440*
832727-80.0No0000016203428918,090,158*
822728-70.0No000031431341527,411,885*
812628-80.0No00001826382346,667,308*
802629-70.0No0001419383075,889,381*
792529-8OutNo0002133537125,100,873*
782530-7OutNo000183143174,338,116*
772430-8OutNo00052546243,617,978*
762431-7OutNo00031946322,967,670*
752331-8OutNo00011345402,386,824*
742332-7OutNo001941491,880,075*
732232-8OutNo000637571,458,519*
722233-7OutNo00432641,107,917*
712133-8OutNo0022771822,990*
702134-7OutNo0012277603,327*
692034-8OutNo0011782431,412*
682035-7OutNo001386304,279*
671935-8OutNo001090209,743*
661936-7OutNo00892141,568*
651836-8OutNo069493,638*
641837-7OutNo049660,801*
631737-8OutNo039738,618*
621738-7OutNo29823,828*
611638-8OutNo19914,755*
601639-7OutNo1998,797*
591539-8OutNo1995,112*
581540-7OutNo1992,952*
571541-6OutNo01001,644*
561441-7OutNo0100883*
551442-6OutNo0100456*
21-54OutNo10014,489*
Total:25.6%0.1%024757891011111196174,316,636

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayTorontoNew JerseyColumbusNY IslandersOttawaDetroitCarolinaPhiladelphiaPittsburghNY RangersBostonFloridaMontrealBuffalo
145620-02.8%0591111781011966621
127-129NoYes
126518-3No5050
125497-6No14141414141414
124509-3No18999189918
123499-44.8519510555101424
122478-7No36152796939633
1214810-42.451012510711111145102
1204710-51.9712121035612156651
1194610-62.1510111555131088442
1184510-72.8391411781291064421
1174511-62.305101012571112965421
1164411-72.504111212781010865421
1154412-62.705121212671010874410
1144312-72.804111212671011965421
1134313-62.505121312671010864411
1124213-72.404121313671010864410
1114214-62.604121313671010864310
1104114-72.604131413671010864310
1094115-62.504131414661010864310
1084015-72.504141514561010863310
1073915-82.504151615561010753310
1063916-72.504161616551010753210
1053816-82.503161716451010753210
1043817-72.303171817441010752210
1033717-82.313181817341010752210
1023718-72.312191918331010752100
1013618-82.222202019231010751100
1003619-72.132202019221010751100
993519-82.14221201922109641100
983520-72.0712120181199641000
973420-81.91122019181198640000
963421-71.81621917161187530000
953321-81.62121715141166430000
943322-71.42421312111154320000
933222-81.125210981033210000
923223-70.82227651022110000
913123-80.51614331011100000
903124-70.31012210000000000
893024-80.1501110000000000
883025-70.1200000000000000
872925-80.0100000000000000
862926-70.0000000000000000
852927-60.0000000000000000
842827-70.0000000000000000
832828-60.000000000000
822728-70.00000000000
812830-4No000
802427-11No0
21-79No
Total:0.5%6.00.74.44.13.80.40.31.81.71.20.80.10.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

FridayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs Minnesota-0.8-0.7-0.6+0.2+0.2+0.9
Tampa Bay vs NY Islanders-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Chicago+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
127-145100
126518-35050
124-125100
123499-4955
122478-7919
1214810-488111
1204710-585114
1194610-6841141
1184510-7762220
1174511-6724240
1164411-7664291
1154412-65953502
1144312-7526400200
1134313-64374503000
1124213-73495105000
1114214-6271055170000
1104114-7191058110000
1094115-613106031201100
1084015-7810584161210000
1073915-8585571823020000
1063916-72649102035030000
1053816-814411420680600000
1043817-7033117189120800100
1033717-8022219141217112112000
1023718-70114199132111521030000
1013618-80081751323317430501000
1003619-70041421122617860901000
993519-80021018181014129013130000
983520-701704121291513116360100
973420-8004027124151531871002000
963421-700201311112155161215241000
953321-801001808128111619592000
943322-7000050471061719101551000
933222-800003023921514161911410000
923223-7000010117110819191910310000
913123-8000000040531714221910410000
903124-7000000202112718231911410000
893024-8000001010631019242011410000
883025-7000000003141120242012510000
872925-8000000010141120242012510000
862926-70000000015122025201141000
852826-8000000001512212520103100
842827-700000000261423261982000
832727-800000000027162626166100
822728-700000013920282412300
812628-80000001413253020710
802629-700000271830281320
792529-8000031226332150
782530-70001620342990
772430-80003133136161
762431-7000182640232
752331-8000041941314
742332-700021339406
732232-80019344710
722233-70005285214
712133-80003225519
702134-70002175625
692034-801125532
682035-70095239
671935-80064945
661936-70044452
651836-80023959
641837-7013465
631737-8012970
621738-702476
611638-801981
601639-701684
591539-801387
581540-701090
571541-6793
561441-7595
551442-6496
541342-7496
531343-6398
521243-7100
511345-4892
21-50100
Total:0011012212222334445555666666541