Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 50%
0 points   0 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston vs Philadelphia+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1
Toronto vs Montreal+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Washington vs Montreal+3.6+3.5+2.9-1.5-1.5-5.7
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.3-0.3-1.0
St. Louis vs NY Rangers+0.4*-0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Buffalo vs Columbus+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1
Nashville vs Ottawa+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Philadelphia vs New Jersey+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.3+0.1
Detroit vs Boston+0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.2+0.0
Tampa Bay vs Florida+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-164InYes1008,758*
1255815-9In99.8%10001,114*
1245816-8InYes1001,876*
1235716-9In99.910003,124*
1225717-8In99.8100005,009*
1215617-9In99.7100008,019*
1205618-8In99.31000012,376*
1195518-9In98.9990018,549*
1185519-8In98.69900028,243*
1175419-9In97.69910041,883*
1165420-8In96.2981161,424*
1155320-9In94.59711087,186*
1145321-8In91.896220122,371*
1135221-9In88.194330168,726*
1125121-10In83.191540230,080*
1115122-9In76.7887500307,053*
1105022-10In68.8839700404,859*
1095023-9In59.278121000524,404*
1084923-10In48.4701514100668,963*
1074924-9In37.4621918100840,164*
1064824-10In26.35223222001,037,668*
1054825-9In16.84326274001,263,580*
1044725-10100.0%9.432293360001,514,985*
1034726-9100.04.5233037910001,791,273*
1024626-10100.01.81529411320002,084,008*
1014627-9100.00.5927421840002,386,027*
1004527-1099.90.1523422461002,691,469*
994528-999.80.02184029920002,997,820*
984428-1099.50.0113353314400003,286,007*
974429-998.50.009293518710003,553,785*
964329-1096.1No0523352112310003,782,195*
954330-990.9No03173222177200003,969,143*
944230-1081.3No0211272022135100004,104,491*
934231-966.9No0172115231910310004,191,445*
924131-1049.4No0041592124177200004,216,995*
914132-931.9No0210515242314610004,178,455*
904032-1018.0No016291925211141004,082,701*
894033-98.7No003141323261992003,939,860*
883933-103.8No002027172525156103,738,296*
873934-91.5No0010131021272311303,504,821*
863834-100.5No000001514252818613,239,367*
853835-90.2No000000282029261222,947,271*
843735-100.1No00000141327311952,647,858*
833736-90.0No000002821332792,344,002*
823636-100.0No0000014153134152,049,066*
813637-90.0No00000292739231,766,043*
803537-100.0No0000152141321,499,973*
793538-90.0No000031540411,254,108*
783438-10OutNo00011037511,036,083*
773439-9OutNo00173260846,036*
763339-10OutNo0042769677,261*
753340-9OutNo00022276538,092*
743240-10OutNo00011782419,329*
733241-9OutNo011387321,676*
723141-10OutNo00990244,352*
713142-9OutNo00793183,560*
703042-10OutNo00595135,382*
693043-9OutNo039798,565*
682943-10OutNo029870,706*
672944-9OutNo019949,601*
662844-10OutNo19934,642*
652845-9OutNo019923,710*
642745-10OutNo010016,094*
632746-9OutNo010010,984*
622646-10OutNo01007,033*
612647-9OutNo01004,553*
602547-10OutNo01002,874*
0-59OutNo10011,954*
Total:50.0%3.3%661213666666666688,339,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghDetroitOttawaMontrealNY RangersBostonNY IslandersFloridaPhiladelphiaCarolinaTampa BayColumbusTorontoBuffaloNew Jersey
164820-07.6%766777767767767
1366713-2NoYes
1356411-733.3333333
1346513-4No206020
1336211-9No13131325131313
1326313-620.013771320137713
1316213-76.53106106636636310136
1306113-810.891163885668611338
1296114-77.096102734684796810
1286014-85.77365114778859767
1276015-77.48563659791055768
1265915-86.6776694676876578
1255815-98.3776686957766758
1245816-87.1765686867769657
1235716-97.4867586767858558
1225717-87.0756586858867668
1215617-97.3756586868857668
1205618-87.7856686858868668
1195518-97.3866686868868667
1185519-87.3866686868868668
1175419-97.4856686868868668
1165420-87.3866686868868568
1155320-97.4866585868868668
1145321-87.7856686868868658
1135221-97.4865586858858568
1125121-107.5855585858858558
1115122-97.4855585858858558
1105022-107.3855585858858558
1095023-97.3955595959959558
1084923-107.3955595959959559
1074924-97.3955595959959559
1064824-107.2944494949949449
1054825-97.11044410410410104104410
1044725-107.01044410410410104104410
1034726-96.81033310310310103103310
1024626-106.71133311311311113113311
1014627-96.61133311311311113113311
1004527-106.41133311311311113113311
994528-96.31122211211211112112311
984428-106.21133311311311112113311
974429-96.01133311311311113113311
964329-105.71133311311311113113311
954330-95.41033310310310103103310
944230-104.7833383838838338
934231-93.8722272727727227
924131-102.8522252525525225
914132-91.8311131313313113
904032-101.0211121212212112
894033-90.5100010101101001
883933-100.2000000000000000
873934-90.1000000000000000
863935-80.0000000000000000
853835-90.0000000000000000
843735-100.0000000000000000
833736-90.0000000000000000
823737-80.00000000000
813738-70.000000000
803739-6No000
793740-5No0
0-78No
Total:3.1%5.31.61.61.65.31.65.31.65.35.31.65.21.61.65.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs Philadelphia-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs Montreal-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.3+0.3+1.2
St. Louis vs NY Rangers-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Buffalo vs Columbus-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs New Jersey-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-164100
1255815-910000
1245816-8100
1235716-910000
1225717-8100000
1215617-9100000
1205618-899000
1195518-999100
1185519-8991000
1175419-9981100
1165420-896211
1155320-9943110
1145321-89242020
1135221-9886303000
1125121-1083850400
1115122-977117050000
1105022-1069159070000
1095023-95918120100000
1084923-1048221501300100
1074924-93725181170010000
1064824-102626211211120000
1054825-917262422421040000
1044725-10923244264206000000
1034726-94192372675090010000
1024626-102132010231080120020000
1014627-9181512171412016110400000
1004527-10051013101515119320601000
994528-902512514183195409020000
984428-100131021117516980131400000
974429-90018071491112120162701000
964329-100050391151216217511031000
954330-900301411210164148161720000
944230-1000200290614791118313510000
934231-9001016039104111671810410000
924131-100000040141018101120189310000
914132-9000020028044111622189310000
904032-10000101602188182318104100000
894033-9000003010431019231911410000
883933-100000020002131018232013620000
873934-9000010001013918232114720000
863834-10000000000001391723221572000
853835-9000000000138172323167200
843735-1000000000013917242315610
833736-9000000013101926231341
823636-100000000141222282292
813637-9000000016152729174
803537-1000000292132269
793538-9000001414303416
783438-10000029253925
773439-900015194135
763339-100002133946
753340-900183457
743240-1000052966
733241-900032374
723141-100011881
713142-9011386
703042-10001090
693043-900793
682943-1000595
672944-90397
662844-100298
652845-90198
642745-10199
632746-9199
622646-100100
612647-90100
602547-100100
56-59100
552350-90100
0-54100
Total:333343434342424244444333333333