Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 96.2%
61 points   28 15-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
New Jersey 0 Detroit 3 +0.1
Chicago 0 Tampa Bay 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs NY Islanders+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Anaheim vs NY Rangers+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Vegas vs Columbus+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Boston vs New Jersey+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Carolina*-0.0-0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.1+0.1
Detroit vs Philadelphia+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Florida+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-129InYes100465*
123302-2In87.5%88138*
122292-3In96.410028*
121293-2In81.08416100*
120283-3In70.48218179*
119284-2In63.37525515*
118274-3In54.3673301,076*
117275-2In42.059412,331*
116265-3In29.9485204,342*
115255-4In20.9386208,087*
114256-3In13.12971013,879*
113246-4In7.62179023,454*
112247-3In4.01585036,882*
111237-4In1.71090056,039*
110238-3In0.7693182,650*
109228-4In0.349510115,187*
108229-3In0.129620154,768*
107219-4In0.019630199,727*
1062110-3In0.0194500247,650*
1052010-4In0.0091800296,504*
1042011-3InNo0871300343,382*
1031911-4InNo0811810380,835*
1021912-3InNo07325200409,873*
1011812-4InNo06332400426,153*
1001813-3InNo05239810426,643*
991713-4100.0%No0404414200414,053*
981714-3100.0No2845224000387,701*
971614-4100.0No1842309100350,754*
961615-399.8No10353715300307,345*
951515-499.1No52438247100260,228*
941516-397.0No215343214300214,105*
931416-492.1No182634237100168,984*
921417-382.3No0317313114300130,268*
911317-467.4No019233524810095,484*
901318-349.0No0041331321530068,539*
891218-430.8No01723352581047,492*
881219-316.2No0021331341630031,745*
871119-47.0No01622372681020,522*
861120-32.4No0002133334152012,697*
851020-40.8No017243925507,752*
841021-30.2No0031537331114,389*
83921-40.0No018284120202,585*
82922-3OutNo03204130601,393*
81822-4OutNo2123837111729*
80823-3OutNo163043192365*
79723-4OutNo42448194166*
78724-3OutNo3143838773*
77725-2OutNo1131471136*
76726-1OutNo75036714*
75525-4OutNo80205*
74526-3OutNo1001
61034-0OutNo03861462
Total:96.2%0.2%151231264210000005,758,644

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayBostonTorontoNew JerseyPhiladelphiaColumbusNY RangersNY IslandersPittsburghCarolinaFloridaDetroitMontrealOttawaBuffalo
129340-03.5%061716181314122110
125322-0No5050
124301-3NoYes
123302-2No131313133813
122292-33.611142111187747
121293-27.0110141416161112411
120283-36.711012161517131241
119284-25.219141417181393210
118274-36.50121315151512103210
117275-24.501111415151513103200
116265-35.00112151615141393210
115255-45.0111161615141393210
114256-34.80112151615141393200
113246-44.90113151615141293100
112247-34.80113161615131283200
111237-44.60113161715131283100
110238-34.60113161615131283100
109228-44.60114171615131283100
108229-34.500114171715131283100
107219-44.500114171615131283100
1062110-34.500114171715131283100
1052010-44.50115171715131173100
1042011-34.40115181714131173100
1031911-44.300116181714121172100
2012-24.40116181714131172100
1021912-34.300117191714121172100
1011812-44.200118191714121062100
1913-24.200118191714121062100
1001813-34.000119201713111062100
1712-54.100119201713111062100
991713-44.000120211713111061100
1814-24.000120211713111061100
981714-33.90002121171311951100
1613-53.90002121171311951100
971614-43.71002221171310951000
961615-33.62102321161210951000
951515-43.4520242115119840000
941516-33.3104023191498730000
931416-42.9176021161176530000
921417-32.5238017128543200000
911317-41.9251001185322100000
901318-31.3238065311100000
891218-40.81660321100000
881219-30.3104011000000
871119-40.242000000000
861120-30.12100000000
851121-20.0100
841122-1No000
83921-4No0
61-82No
Total:3.9%2.71.00.617.518.115.412.410.79.55.71.60.80.20.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
New Jersey 0 Detroit 3 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs NY Islanders-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs New Jersey-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Detroit vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Vegas vs Columbus-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Anaheim vs NY Rangers-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
124-129100
123302-28813
122292-3964
121293-281316
120283-3701118
119284-26312250
118274-354133300
117275-24217411
116265-330185110
115255-421176020
114256-3131667500
113246-481470900
112247-34117015000
111237-4286723000
110238-3156034000
109228-40350451010
108229-302385810100
107219-4012769102000
1062110-301187611400000
1052010-400108101610000
1042011-30582019200000
1031911-4027901116100000
1021912-301720112121100000
1011812-400630111201310000
1001813-300520192916100000
991713-40040017371102111000
981714-3028044101444130000
971614-4018024001758171000
961615-3100134018415114120000
951515-4500240153201241610000
941516-3200151022203111311100
931416-410861200341221331000
921417-303301403103114641000
911317-401108230351511115100
901318-30000313031031218124100
891218-400017023029222310300
881219-30002130051829218100
871119-401600212263017510
861120-300020151931271330
851020-4010210243323710
841021-30000415313214300
83921-4017233525810
82922-3121330331840
81822-40724332672
80823-3141431331430
79723-411222421652
78724-34153830103
77725-2112242223
76625-377292929
75525-4602020
74526-3100
61034-0215228
Total:017440151706150603001110000000000