Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Lost to Pittsburgh 4-5 (ot), playoff odds down 3.4 to 65.2%
6 points   2 0-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)-0.9
*-0.1
-0.3
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 +0.2
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.1*+0.0*+0.1*+0.0-0.1-0.1
Vegas vs Arizona-0.1-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.0*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
90-110InYes100702*
89398-5In99.7%1000322*
88399-4In99.31000555*
87389-5In98.81000987*
863810-4In98.399101,809*
853710-5In97.499102,934*
843711-4In96.799104,705*
833611-5In94.198207,373*
823612-4In90.9973010,985*
813512-5In86.5954116,102*
803513-4In80.59262023,882*
793413-5In72.08992033,469*
783313-6In61.683134045,582*
773314-5In50.076176060,734*
763214-6In37.1672310078,551*
753215-5In24.95728150098,958*
743115-6In14.745332110121,864*
733116-5100.0%7.4333728200146,772*
723016-6100.02.9223836400172,797*
713017-5100.00.9133644800199,121*
702917-6100.00.262949141000224,439*
692918-599.90.02215023300245,797*
682818-699.70.0113463460000265,215*
672819-598.90.0063643131100277,457*
662719-696.5No022446214300284,571*
652720-590.4No01124126109100285,512*
642620-678.3No05292420174000280,088*
632621-560.1No0116152825123000269,361*
622521-639.0No00762626239200252,430*
612522-521.0No022171830218200232,524*
602422-69.4No000992530196100209,551*
592423-53.4No0003315292916410184,037*
582323-61.1No0001161931271220158,438*
572324-50.4No000021024332371133,295*
562224-60.2No000004153132163110,050*
552225-50.1No000017233526788,821*
542125-60.0No000031433361470,071*
532126-50.0No0001826422354,303*
522026-60.0No0000318433540,739*
512027-5OutNo0112404730,091*
501927-6OutNo0017345821,980*
491928-5OutNo04286915,519*
481828-6OutNo02227610,763*
471829-5OutNo0116837,171*
461729-6OutNo111894,816*
451730-5OutNo08923,128*
441630-6OutNo06942,013*
431631-5OutNo04961,238*
421531-6OutNo298752*
411532-5OutNo199457*
401432-6OutNo199276*
391433-5OutNo298128*
6-38OutNo100511*
Total:65.2%4.9%1010171576665544324,793,746

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasColoradoPhiladelphiaNew JerseyMinnesotaNY IslandersArizonaSt. LouisNY RangersBostonAnaheimSan JosePittsburghBuffaloLos Angeles
110520-08.6%016141301171116130
97456-1NoYes
96435-4NoYes
95425-5No20204020
94437-2No1717171733
93416-510.0102520525555
92428-214.0882204420142684
91407-54.532118110431212221215
90408-44.81512103143110113310103
89398-57.8241211293410113213104
88399-47.01313104132310122411102
87389-58.3339114133410113310113
863810-47.625111141144910439104
853710-57.2431111411441010341083
843711-47.43311114114491044994
833611-57.4341111510459944894
823612-47.5341010410559944894
813512-57.6351010510559945884
803513-47.8451010510559954884
793413-57.945101059558855884
783313-67.4451010510558855884
773314-57.545101059558855884
763214-67.5451010510558855884
753215-57.5451011510558854874
743115-67.3451111510558844874
733116-57.2441212411449944873
723016-67.0341413412449933883
713017-56.933151531333101033882
702917-66.722161621422101022982
692918-56.522171721522111111991
682818-66.322181811511111111991
672819-56.222181811511111111991
2920-36.122171711511111111991
662719-65.932171721411101011981
2618-85.633171621411101011881
652720-55.3531515212219911771
642620-64.6641212310227711551
632621-53.5649937224411331
622521-62.2536624112211221
612522-51.2324412111100110
602523-40.5112201000000000
592423-50.2001100000000000
582424-40.1000000000000000
572324-50.00000000000000
562325-40.00000000000
552225-50.000000000
542226-40.00000000
532227-30.00000000
522228-20.00000
6-51No
Total:4.2%2.82.410.09.92.18.41.71.76.16.11.41.45.25.01.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)+0.2
WednesdayNone

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
90-110100
89398-51000
88399-49910
87389-59910
863810-498110
853710-597110
843711-497210
833611-594420
823612-491630
813512-586841
803513-4801260200
793413-57217902000
783313-662211304000
773314-550261716000
763214-637302129000
753215-52532253131000
743115-615312761821010000
733116-572626112143020000
723016-631922152295040000
713017-5112161919141017000000
702917-60692013181621211010000
692918-502417619196164303000
682818-601112214181217970600000
672819-50006071217121514211110100
662719-600202516616196165303000
652720-5001011102111712161010081000
642620-600040491510151831561000
632621-5000101312312208181461000
622521-60000016161312142116721000
612522-500020251261722181041000
602422-6000000171716222114721000
592423-500000302614212217941000
582323-6000010015111923201252000
572324-500000001491723221572000
562224-60000000138162323168200
552225-5000012816242417720
542125-6000001281725251651
532126-5000139192825133
522026-6000014122531226
512027-5001617313213
501927-600210263823
491928-50016204033
481828-603134044
471829-50183457
461729-60052768
451730-5022375
441630-611782
431631-501288
421531-60693
411532-5793
401533-4496
391433-5694
381434-4298
6-37100
Total:5555444444434342443333222222111