Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.2 to 75.4%
8 points   3 0-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Chicago 3 Philadelphia 0 +0.2
NY Islanders 2 Toronto 5 +0.2
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Winnipeg vs Carolina+0.3*+0.1*-0.0*-0.2-0.3-0.3
New Jersey vs NY Rangers*+0.0*-0.2-0.3*-0.2*-0.3+0.2
Colorado vs Florida+0.2*-0.2*+0.0*-0.2*-0.1-0.2
Boston vs San Jose-0.2*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.1+0.2
+0.1*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1*-0.2-0.1
Calgary vs Tampa Bay+0.1*+0.2*+0.0*-0.0*-0.3-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton vs Washington-4.0-0.5-0.4+2.8+3.2+3.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
-1.8-0.3-0.4+1.2+1.4+1.5
Ottawa vs Toronto-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Anaheim vs Buffalo-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.2
Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-162In99.8%1002,656*
1225316-8In99.5100001,328*
1215317-7In99.3100002,055*
1205217-8In97.999003,031*
1195218-7In97.899104,292*
1185118-8In96.799106,043*
1175119-7In94.798118,249*
1165019-8In92.4981111,391*
1154919-9In88.99622015,118*
1144920-8In84.69532020,054*
1134820-9In78.09253026,372*
1124821-8In70.88875032,739*
1114721-9In62.284970041,148*
1104722-8In52.779129050,095*
1094622-9In41.87315120060,295*
1084623-8In31.56519151072,120*
1074523-9In21.55623201084,328*
1064524-8In13.346272530096,900*
1054424-9In7.2363030400109,538*
1044425-8In3.4273135700121,056*
1034325-9100.0%1.419313910100132,820*
1024326-8100.00.4122942142000143,499*
1014226-9100.00.172644194000151,503*
1004227-8100.00.03214325610158,255*
994127-999.90.0217403010200163,073*
984128-899.60.01123535143000165,188*
974028-998.7No082936197100165,025*
964029-896.7No05223622113000162,577*
953929-992.0No031633231761000156,549*
943930-883.7No0111282123124100149,853*
933830-970.6No162217251982000140,341*
923831-853.7No0415112325155100129,679*
913731-936.6No02106182622113100118,019*
903732-821.6No01631223261982000106,885*
893632-910.9No0041617262515510093,757*
883633-84.7No00203102228221030081,817*
873533-92.0No0010151526271761069,819*
863534-80.7No000029202925123059,359*
853434-90.2No000014142630196149,417*
843435-80.1No0002820312611240,746*
833335-90.0No0001414283218432,870*
823336-80.0No00028233426726,207*
813236-9OutNo00151734331120,539*
803237-8OutNo0021131381715,829*
793137-9OutNo001725422512,059*
783138-8OutNo0042044329,115*
773038-9OutNo0021442416,719*
763039-8OutNo01940504,855*
752939-9OutNo0634593,501*
742940-8OutNo0430662,472*
732840-9OutNo0224731,765*
722841-8OutNo120791,164*
712741-9OutNo11584748*
702742-8OutNo11288533*
692642-9OutNo991323*
682643-8OutNo793230*
672543-9OutNo298130*
662544-8OutNo39788*
652343-11OutNo10049*
642445-8OutNo29844*
62-63OutNo10037*
612246-9OutNo14867*
8-60OutNo100287*
Total:75.4%7.7%1511201576554332213,346,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupOttawaPittsburghDetroitTampa BayMontrealColumbusNY IslandersNew JerseyTorontoNY RangersBostonCarolinaFloridaPhiladelphiaBuffalo
162770-07.2%7116467828977493
1356212-3NoYes
1346112-450.05050
1335911-7No291414141414
1325912-625.01325132525
1315812-714.314141414141414
1305611-103.6411477114147117474
1295814-57.566613154138629662
1285613-811.1254577911111164692
1275513-915.441371099867885241
1265615-614.65106468898967833
1255515-79.59865571076966664
1245415-810.76765798979510643
1235416-79.9685641110106857662
1225316-811.258576119961066572
1215317-710.35966710887857572
1205217-89.7585669897878572
1195218-710.9586668996867662
1185118-89.8586679996867662
1175119-710.3686669996867562
1165019-810.8586669996867662
1154919-910.4586669997868562
1144920-810.1586669996857572
1134820-910.35966691096867572
1124821-810.2596669996867572
1114721-910.3596661010106857562
1104722-89.75105551010106857562
1094622-99.95105551010105857562
1084623-810.15105551111115857462
1074523-99.64115551111115847462
1064524-89.74125551212115847462
1054424-99.54134441212124847361
1044425-89.54144441313124837361
1034325-99.33153441313133837361
1024326-89.23153331414133837261
1014226-98.93163331414143827261
1004227-88.63163331415142927261
994127-98.63173331515142827261
984128-88.44173331514142827160
974028-98.14164431414142817160
964029-87.85164441413132716150
953929-97.35155541312122716150
943930-86.76145541111102615140
933830-95.55125449982414130
923831-84.2594437661313120
913731-92.9363325441202010
903732-81.7242213220101010
893632-90.9121111110101000
883633-80.4010001110000000
873533-90.2000000000000000
863534-80.100000000000000
853434-90.0000000000000
843334-100.00000000000
833335-9No00000
823538-4No00
8-81No
Total:6.7%3.511.13.33.33.19.89.79.42.45.92.05.21.84.30.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders 2 Toronto 5 -0.1
Chicago 3 Philadelphia 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
New Jersey vs NY Rangers+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Winnipeg vs Carolina-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton vs Washington+0.9+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
130-162100
1295814-5982
124-128100
1235416-71000
1225316-899000
1215317-799100
1205217-898100
1195218-798110
1185118-897210
1175119-795411
1165019-892511
1154919-98972020
1144920-88510320
1134820-9781450300
1124821-8711870500
1114721-962229060000
1104722-853261209000
1094622-94231151110000
1084623-83233181141010
1074523-9213420218201000
1064524-813332242131030000
1054424-97292372252040000
1044425-8324211022940600000
1034325-911717141914609101000
1024326-80121316151891131020000
1014226-9079179201321531040000
1004227-8035175191541762060100
994127-902214216157151050912000
984128-801111111131111148013230000
974028-90070681461612215470100
964029-8005035143151441581113000
953929-900301213111138121215261000
943930-80010019071012715175124100
933830-9010060361331415111793100
923831-80004012121109151916820000
913731-900020190641515211683100
903732-800100603111919221683100
893632-900003010631121231793100
883633-8000020031513212318104100
873533-90001001015132124191041000
863534-800000002513212419104100
853434-900000002613222419103100
843435-80000026142325188200
833335-900012717252516610
823336-80001391927241340
813236-900141224292081
803237-800027182928143
793137-90003112432236
783138-8001619333011
773038-900313293617
763039-8027254126
752939-914194135
742940-8002133945
732840-90193654
722841-8053164
712741-942670
702742-8021979
692642-921484
682643-811387
672543-91189
662544-81090
652343-11298
642445-8595
632345-9496
622144-12100
612246-91486
602348-62080
8-59100
Total:886666445443434233322222111110