Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Lost to NY Islanders 2-3 (ot), playoff odds down 0.2 to 48.9%
22 points   9 8-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 -0.6
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)-0.4
*-0.0
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)*-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs NY Rangers+1.3+0.3+0.3-0.7-0.8-0.8
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 -6.9
-0.3
-0.3
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 +0.4
Philadelphia 4 Columbus 2 -0.3
*-0.0
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 -0.3
Colorado 4 Carolina 3 +0.3
Boston 0 Montreal 2 +0.2
Nashville 3 Florida 2 (so)*-0.2
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 *-0.1
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-144InYes10067,968*
125497-5In97.0%982197*
124487-6In98.5991410*
123488-5In98.49901914*
122478-6In95.797131,832*
121479-5In94.295143,736*
120469-6In91.794157,090*
1194610-5In88.19127013,606*
1184510-6In83.38839024,943*
1174511-5In77.984412044,874*
1164411-6In70.679516078,145*
1154412-5In61.7727200134,131*
1144312-6In51.6659251219,707*
1134212-7In41.15712301354,544*
1124213-6In30.748143620557,618*
1114113-7In21.339164230855,601*
1104114-6In13.5311747501,283,328*
1094014-7In7.6231851801,874,802*
1084015-6In3.816185511002,680,548*
1073915-7In1.610175715003,746,585*
1063916-6In0.66155820005,115,625*
1053816-7In0.24135825006,840,786*
1043817-6100.0%0.021156311008,950,822*
1033717-7100.00.0185238100011,455,821*
1023718-6100.00.0064744200014,367,605*
1013618-7100.00.0044150400017,636,879*
1003619-699.9No0335566100021,202,356*
993519-799.8No02296081000024,986,595*
983520-699.4No012362113100028,842,826*
973420-798.2No001862136200032,624,041*
963421-695.6No0013601394100036,213,620*
953321-790.8No0095613137200039,366,742*
943322-682.8No0650111612410041,997,684*
933222-771.8No0443817189200043,919,544*
923122-858.5No02365162215410045,050,801*
913123-744.4No012831224219200045,345,213*
903023-831.5No012118222715400044,768,880*
893024-720.9No001515183022710043,357,139*
882924-813.0No0010031329291330041,219,415*
872925-77.7No006018253320500038,420,882*
862825-84.3No040041834281010035,160,844*
852826-72.3No020021231341630031,579,770*
842726-81.1No01001725372450027,825,583*
832727-70.5No01000418363291024,056,153*
822627-80.2No000002123238152020,424,399*
812628-70.1No00000172641223017,014,043*
802528-80.0No000041942296013,907,671*
792529-70.0No000213393610011,151,821*
782429-80.0No00001833421518,784,324*
772430-70.0No0000527452126,783,433*
762330-80.0No000321452835,141,515*
752331-70.0No000115443563,818,345*
742332-6OutNo00110394292,790,127*
732232-7OutNo0063447131,995,027*
722233-6OutNo0042851181,401,164*
712133-7OutNo002225223964,002*
702134-6OutNo01175230650,703*
692034-7OutNo01125037429,743*
682035-6OutNo0084745279,737*
671935-7OutNo064352177,179*
661936-6OutNo043759110,607*
651836-7OutNo02326668,271*
641837-6OutNo01277240,300*
631737-7OutNo01227723,591*
621738-6OutNo0188213,600*
611638-7OutNo013877,705*
601639-6OutNo011894,089*
591539-7OutNo9912,215*
581540-6OutNo6941,212*
571541-5OutNo595589*
561441-6OutNo397300*
551442-5OutNo496152*
541342-6OutNo19982*
22-53OutNo10067,889*
Total:48.9%0.2%011028468101097420818,310,040

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghTampa BayNY IslandersDetroitMontrealOttawaTorontoBostonNY RangersFloridaPhiladelphiaNew JerseyCarolinaColumbusBuffalo
144610-04.6%14371014141591155100
132534-4NoYes
131524-5NoYes
130514-6NoYes
129526-3No25252525
128505-616.72582588888
127506-512.131266271569312
126507-44.91126101712111551072
125497-56.6127861317131113352
124487-64.904451214121610105620
123488-54.7145710131412111066100
122478-64.5146881415131086510
121479-54.81377101414139966100
120469-64.2147710131313101066100
1194610-54.7149610131312101065100
1184510-64.513107912121210965100
1174511-54.223127912121210965100
1164411-64.323156811111110865100
1154412-54.333186811111010865100
1144312-64.343226810101010755100
1134212-74.353255799910755100
1124213-64.263295788810655100
1114113-74.172335677710554100
1104114-64.192374566610454100
1094014-73.9112414555510444100
1084015-63.912245344449344100
1073915-73.814148334439243100
1063916-63.715151233339243100
1053816-73.617154222229143000
1043817-63.618155122219143000
1033717-73.519157111119143000
1023718-63.419157111119143000
1013618-73.320257111119043000
1003619-63.320257111109043000
993519-73.221356211109033000
983520-63.121454221108033000
973420-73.122552321107033000
963421-63.022649321106032000
953321-72.823745321005022000
943322-62.522740320004022000
933222-72.220634320003011000
923223-61.717528210002011000
913123-71.313422110002011000
903124-60.99216110001000000
893024-70.66111000001000000
883025-60.4418000000000000
872925-70.2205000000000000
862926-60.1103000000000000
852826-70.1102000000000000
842827-60.0001000000000000
832727-70.000000000000000
822728-60.00000000000000
812628-70.000000000000
802629-60.0000000000
792529-70.000000
782530-60.00000
772430-70.000
762431-60.000
752432-5No0
22-74No
Total:1.5%11.52.625.41.30.90.40.40.33.20.21.41.20.20.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)+0.1
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs NY Rangers-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 +1.1
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 +0.1
Philadelphia 4 Columbus 2 +0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-144100
125497-59712
124487-69901
123488-598001
122478-696113
121479-594114
120469-692215
1194610-5883270
1184510-68343900
1174511-578641200
1164411-67185016000
1154412-562107020000
1144312-652139025001
1134212-7411511030001
1124213-6311713035102000
1114113-7211815139113000
1104114-61317161423105000
1094014-7815162435308000
1084015-641214442850110000
1073915-729125371380140000
1063916-61696301712018100000
1053816-70367212016122210000
1043817-602471321192264201000
1033717-701266202142774010000
1023718-60015316218251180200000
1013618-7000411118122017130400000
1003619-600206131614202025110000
993519-70010381882126571100000
983520-600101417319291083301000
973420-700001215114281875502000
963421-6000001120923286881410000
953321-700000905163549103720000
943322-6000060210382910611510000
933222-7000401537177101510310000
923122-80002002330541115168200000
913123-70001012703210132015620000
903023-80001002101188192113510000
893024-700000150105415232111410000
882924-80000100003291925191031000
872925-700000600011413232517820000
862825-800040000161625251551000
852826-7000200000392027231131000
842726-800100000141324281982000
832727-700100000271727261551000
822627-800000000310222923102000
812628-7000000015152729175100
802528-80000002922312410200
792529-700001415283017400
782429-800000028233324910
772430-70000141631311530
762330-8000021026352250
752331-7000015193529101
742332-60003133235162
732232-7000182638224
722233-600042039307
712133-7000214363611
702134-60019324216
692034-7006264523
682035-60003204630
671935-7002154538
661936-601104247
651836-70073855
641837-60043263
631737-7032770
621738-6022276
611638-7011782
601639-601486
591539-701189
581540-6892
571541-5793
561441-60495
551442-5496
541342-6199
531343-5991
22-52100
Total:0001122434715233345666554332100