Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Lost to Montreal 0-1 (ot), playoff odds down 0.7 to 94.6%
60 points   25 14-10

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
New Jersey 3 Florida 1 +0.5
Boston 3 Los Angeles 1 -0.2
Ottawa 7 Arizona 2 -0.2
Montreal 1 Washington 0 (ot)+0.1
-0.1
-0.0
NY Rangers 4 Carolina 1 -0.0
Detroit 4 NY Islanders 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Washington vs St. Louis+1.5+1.5+1.3-0.2-0.2-2.1
+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2
+0.3+0.2+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Pittsburgh vs Nashville+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
126330-0In99.9%100094,448
125320-1InYes10032
124310-2In98.61000222*
123311-1In98.91000935*
122301-2In97.5100003,468*
121302-1In95.3991010,998*
120292-2In92.4982032,143*
119293-1In87.4973081,955*
118283-2In80.3945100197,660*
117273-3In70.6908200431,222*
116274-2In58.684123000887,136*
115264-3In44.9761860001,694,160*
114265-2In31.26624900003,067,687*
113255-3In19.053311411005,223,288*
112256-2In9.940372022008,457,133*
111246-3In4.3284025430012,980,457*
110247-2In1.51740287700019,042,039*
109237-3In0.493629131101026,592,484*
108238-2In0.153026201712035,623,605*
107228-3In0.022320262234045,585,285*
106218-4In0.011613292678056,062,033*
105219-3100.0%0.00107292713140066,150,573*
104209-4100.00.0064252519211075,111,841*
1032010-3100.0No031192026292081,965,808*
1021910-4100.0No010141430375086,232,037*
1011911-3100.0No01098304390087,322,860*
1001811-499.8No000542846160085,388,760*
991812-399.5No003223462610080,431,029*
981712-498.7No001118423610073,231,680*
971713-397.0No001013364730064,284,231*
961613-494.0No000092956600054,565,931*
951614-389.1No000622621000044,710,175*
941514-482.0No000315631710035,407,231*
931515-372.7No0002106125300027,082,655*
921415-461.5No000165533500020,031,035*
911416-349.0No001345401010014,299,762*
901316-436.5No0013544172009,874,888*
891317-325.1No00124452550006,578,277*
881217-415.6No000154133101004,242,554*
871218-38.8No0093338173002,635,727*
861118-44.4No00424402561001,581,348*
851119-31.9No00215363312200913,442*
841019-40.7No018283820400510,908*
831020-30.2No04193829910275,353*
82920-40.0No011132361620142,141*
81921-30.0No0052339256071,432*
80922-2OutNo0214363411134,147*
79822-3OutNo18294119315,770*
78823-2OutNo0320413057,146*
77723-3OutNo01133640102,971*
76724-2OutNo00632441801,174*
75624-3OutNo02234331427*
74625-2OutNo1194733162*
73525-3OutNo11424865*
72526-2OutNo376319*
71426-3OutNo505010*
70427-2OutNo1001
60033-0OutNo0811994,440
Total:94.6%0.5%2651110152620410000001,139,266,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealTampa BayDetroitNY IslandersNY RangersPittsburghBostonOttawaFloridaPhiladelphiaTorontoNew JerseyColumbusCarolinaBuffalo
126330-07.5%22651210466821000
125320-16.3619363333
124310-25.4146461349863
123311-19.5228613104466310
122301-27.02365109467730000
121302-17.22366109466721000
120292-27.723761010467721000
119293-17.6237711104577210000
118283-27.323771110457621000
117273-37.323771111436621000
116274-27.4337812114166210000
115264-37.3348912123965210000
114265-27.14491013133555100000
113255-37.045101114143144100000
112256-26.957111215152733100000
111246-36.778131315162332100000
110247-26.5810141315161922000000
109237-36.31012161315151611000000
108238-26.11214171314141411000000
107228-35.91416181213141111000000
106218-45.71517191213131000000000
105219-35.5161819121313800000000
104209-45.4171919131313700000000
1032010-35.2181918131313500000000
199-55.2181918131313500000000
1021910-45.1191917141313400000000
1011911-35.0201916141413300000000
1810-55.0201916141413300000000
1001811-44.9201915151513300000000
991812-34.8211814161514200000000
1711-54.8211814161514200000000
981712-44.8221813161513200000000
971713-34.6231812151513100000000
961613-44.5241712141412100000000
951614-34.224161113131110000000
941514-43.923151012121010000000
931515-33.4211491010810000000
921415-42.918128897000000000
911416-32.3159667500000000
901316-41.7117455400000000
891317-31.28533330000000
881217-40.753222200000000
871218-30.4321111000000
861219-20.2110110000
851119-30.110000000
841120-20.00000000
831020-30.00000000
821021-20.00000000
811022-1No000
60-80No
Total:4.9%18.216.814.713.113.212.55.40.30.30.10.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 4 NY Islanders 1 -0.1
NY Rangers 4 Carolina 1 +0.1
Montreal 1 Washington 0 (ot)+0.1
Boston 3 Los Angeles 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs St. Louis-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.7
Pittsburgh vs Nashville+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126330-010000
125320-1100
124310-29910
123311-19910
122301-298200
121302-195410
120292-292620
119293-1879300
118283-2801451000
117273-37120802000
116274-2592612030000
115264-34531180600000
114265-231352419100000
113255-3193430113211000
112256-21030343164202000
111246-3424355187403000
110247-211632817117060000
109237-309251114151301010100
108238-20418129171901421200
107228-302111251525117530400
106218-40161021127218870800
105219-3003717263151213014000
104209-40015032051114190200100
1032010-300301146613250281200
1021910-40010086311291352500
1011911-30010045172823949000
1001811-400000230423439716000
991812-300012021763511250100
981712-400001011172815351100
971713-30000100671918433300
961613-40000003611184786000
951614-300000155174517101000
941514-400000321335281530000
931515-300000219233819610000
921415-400001061242211341000
911416-300010354018191030000
901316-40000123313221982000
891317-300001024720251651000
881217-400000153132625133000
871218-300091720292292000
861118-4000403122629186100
851119-3002016183027133000
841019-401002102431238100
831020-30001415293117400
82920-4000172133271010
81921-3000031229341940
80922-2015203629910
79822-30021231371720
78823-201523402750
77723-3002153538100
76724-20163142191
75624-3032044302
74625-211743353
73525-3838486
72526-232635
71426-34060
70427-2100
60033-002325511
Total:124323825513320615531100000000000