Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.6 to 79.9%
33 points   15 7-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia 6 Edmonton 5 -0.5
Montreal 5 New Jersey 2 +0.5
-0.2
Los Angeles 1 Carolina 3 -0.4
Tampa Bay 1 Vancouver 5 +0.3
Boston 2 Colorado 4 +0.3
NY Islanders 3 St. Louis 2 -0.2
+0.1
Winnipeg 1 NY Rangers 2 -0.1
-0.0
-0.2
Florida 1 Pittsburgh 5 -0.1
-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Buffalo vs Washington-4.3-0.7-0.6+2.8+3.3+3.3
-0.3*+0.0-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
-1.3-0.4-0.3+0.8+1.0+1.0
New Jersey vs St. Louis-0.4-0.4-0.5+0.2+0.2+0.6
Chicago vs NY Rangers+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.2*-0.1-0.1
+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.1
Detroit vs Columbus*-0.1-0.2*-0.1*+0.0*-0.1+0.1
+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Minnesota vs Edmonton-0.1*-0.1-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-147In99.9%1001,107*
125449-4In99.71000321*
124439-5In99.71000672*
1234310-4In98.999111,102*
1224210-5In99.099011,841*
1214110-6In97.097123,344*
1204111-5In94.995235,245*
1194011-6In93.0932408,535*
1184012-5In89.29046013,003*
1173912-6In84.58659019,452*
1163913-5In78.681712028,446*
1153813-6In71.4749161040,535*
1143814-5In62.86710221056,341*
1133714-6In53.35813272076,256*
1123715-5In43.549143340101,059*
1113615-6In33.340153860130,686*
1103616-5In23.73116431010164,805*
1093516-6In15.62215471510204,588*
1083416-7In9.41614482020245,885*
1073417-6In5.01012482740291,593*
1063317-7100.0%2.36104533600334,212*
1053318-6100.01.03840391000377,917*
1043218-7100.00.32533441510420,029*
1033219-6100.00.11327462220453,829*
1023119-799.90.002204529400481,649*
1013120-699.70.0011442366000497,698*
1003020-799.20.001937421110505,514*
993021-698.2No005304617200503,777*
982921-796.1No0032247244000492,037*
972922-692.2No011644317100470,536*
962822-785.4No01103738132000440,495*
952823-674.9No0062841204000403,722*
942723-760.9No0031939289200362,467*
932724-644.6No02113234164100319,946*
922624-729.0No01523342410200276,200*
912625-616.1No002142930176100233,681*
902525-77.7No017213025124100194,441*
892526-63.0No003122529208200158,373*
882426-71.0No001617282715510126,235*
872427-60.3No000210222923102098,238*
862327-70.1No00015152729185175,675*
852328-60.0No002821312611256,697*
842228-7OutNo01414283218441,548*
832229-6OutNo0028223526829,772*
822129-7OutNo0141533341321,258*
812130-6OutNo0021028402014,445*
802030-7OutNo0152241319,910*
792031-6OutNo031642406,626*
781931-7OutNo011038514,354*
771932-6OutNo1533612,713*
761832-7OutNo0427691,763*
751833-6OutNo0223751,028*
741733-7OutNo11782628*
731734-6OutNo11386370*
721735-5OutNo793191*
711635-6OutNo69499*
701636-5OutNo39766*
691536-6OutNo10020*
681436-7OutNo118919*
33-67OutNo100746*
Total:79.9%4.4%6316212113743211108,813,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealColumbusNY RangersPittsburghBostonOttawaPhiladelphiaTampa BayNew JerseyTorontoDetroitCarolinaFloridaNY IslandersBuffalo
147570-08.2%1761155204132411372
133496-2NoYes
132486-333.3333333
131476-4No141414142914
130455-716.717817881725
129467-4No1455185235235
128457-58.99413222294216411
127458-47.975123122318161111
126448-55.7721245193174312272
125449-46.50551365243161210282
124439-56.51571043213152314372
1234310-47.30761434224122311292
1224210-55.60661334204134211291
1214110-67.40671433223133211182
1204111-56.50781433214133311272
1194011-66.80781433213133211281
1184012-56.50891533213122210272
1173912-66.608101533203122210271
1163913-56.601011163319311229272
1153813-66.201113173218311229161
1143814-56.101315182217210228161
1133714-66.20151719221629217151
1123715-56.00171920221428116151
1113615-65.90192121111318116141
1103616-55.71212423111116115131
1093516-65.51232623111016114130
1083416-75.3225272411915103020
1073417-65.2326292411814003020
1063317-75.1426292311713002010
1053318-65.0726292311613002010
1043218-74.91026282211613002010
1033219-64.91325272011513002010
1023119-74.91824261912512001010
1013120-64.92223241622412101010
1003020-74.82622231522412101010
993021-64.83021221322311101010
982921-74.73221201122211101000
972922-64.53220191022211100000
962822-74.1312018922111100000
952823-63.5281816712110000000
942723-72.9221613611100000000
932724-62.1161210411000000000
922624-71.31087300000000000
912625-60.7654100000000000
902626-50.4322100000000000
892526-60.1111000000000000
882527-50.000000000000
872427-60.000000000000
862428-50.00000000
852328-6No000
33-84No
Total:4.0%15.518.519.213.31.31.34.10.82.10.50.41.50.21.00.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 1 Pittsburgh 5 +0.1
Winnipeg 1 NY Rangers 2 +0.1
Philadelphia 6 Edmonton 5 +0.1
Montreal 5 New Jersey 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo vs Washington+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Chicago vs NY Rangers-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Detroit vs Columbus-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
127-147100
126448-51000
125449-41000
124439-510000
1234310-49911
1224210-599001
1214110-697012
1204111-595023
1194011-6930240
1184012-5891460
1173912-6841590
1163913-579271200
1153813-6713916010
1143814-5634100220010
1133714-6535130270020
1123715-5436140330040
1113615-6337150380060
1103616-5247150430010010
1093516-6167150461014010
1083416-7961404711200020
1073417-6551214421260040
1063317-7249140323300600
1053318-612713352039001000
1043218-7014124630431015010
1033219-6012116640451022020
1023119-7001196404321290400
1013120-600114540373103606000
1003020-7000023303052042011010
993021-6000022020630451170200
982921-70000110126404522404000
972922-600001066504133107100
962822-70000002440325370132000
952823-60000001231226401204000
942723-700000121127372289200
932724-600000115529333165100
922624-7000000241853325103000
912625-60000029527301872000
902525-70000134172926145100
892526-60000128212823124100
882426-7000013112227211031000
872427-600001413232620931000
862327-700000151323261993100
852328-6000161423251893000
842228-70026152425188200
832229-60027172525166100
822129-7013919272414410
812130-6014112229221020
802030-700151526291851
792031-6028213027112
781931-7014132832184
771932-60172135287
761832-70415333414
751833-60018313821
741733-7005234428
731734-63144439
721735-5274051
711635-6102763
701636-522673
691536-62575
681436-73268
671437-61388
33-66100
Total:4130122201821019212174321111000000