Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Tied with Los Angeles 0-0 (10:30 pm ET), playoff odds down 0.02 to 81.6%
71 points   32 20-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles vs Washington-6.6-1.2-1.0+3.7+4.1+4.1
-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.0*-0.0No*-0.0*-0.0+0.0
Columbus vs Tampa Bay-0.7-0.6-0.6*-0.1*-0.1+0.6
San Jose vs Boston+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Carolina vs NY Rangers-0.7-0.8-0.6+0.5+0.4+1.7
Montreal vs Columbus-0.5-1.1-1.0-0.2-0.3+1.0
New Jersey vs Pittsburgh+0.9*+0.1*+0.2-0.4-0.7-0.6
Florida vs Buffalo+0.4*-0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.4
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay-0.5-0.3-0.3*+0.0*+0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
117230-0In28.2%3169525
116220-1InNo1006
115221-0In22.2227818*
114211-1In5.2594177*
113201-2In1.62953246*
112202-1In0.41927779*
111192-2InNo089102,039*
110193-1In0.00831704,704*
109183-2InNo07624010,444*
108173-3InNo06733120,975*
107174-2InNo56431039,030*
106164-3InNo045523067,168*
105165-2InNo346060108,570*
104155-3InNo24641100163,471*
103156-2InNo16641910232,417*
102146-3100.0%No106028300310,745*
101147-2100.0No55237600395,911*
100137-3100.0No240451110227,114
148-1100.0No341451110244,464*
99138-299.9No1294918300263,665
127-499.8No128491840275,148*
98128-399.4No0184725910276,704
139-199.4No0184825810301,454*
97129-298.1No01141291620287,762
118-497.7No01041291720307,578*
96119-394.1No05323028600277,665
1210-194.2No05323027600300,509*
951110-287.7No022226371200257,966
109-486.3No022125381310279,071*
941010-375.2No011318432320471,825*
931011-259.4No007114135500397,537*
92911-342.0No03633461210317,040*
91912-226.1No012225021300241,369*
90812-313.9No001134732710173,862*
89813-26.2No00637401420119,812*
88713-32.3No0022543245077,517*
87714-20.7No001153934111047,754*
86614-30.2No073040193028,091*
85615-20.0No0031940308015,678*
84515-30.0No011034381518,143*
83516-2OutNo05244326303,947*
82416-3OutNo2143838801,801*
81417-2OutNo0062946162834*
80418-1OutNo32046293346*
79318-2OutNo1743437122*
78319-1OutNo7255016244*
77219-2OutNo25502512*
75-76OutNo1004*
74121-1OutNo1001
71023-0OutNo064054524
Total:81.6%0.0%04202615171241000006,562,488

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayNY IslandersTorontoBostonColumbusPittsburghCarolinaMontrealBuffaloPhiladelphiaFloridaNY RangersNew JerseyDetroitOttawa
117230-02.9%31215231931411
116220-1No33173317
115221-011.166661167
114211-1No41513251735
113201-22.82122334132130
112202-13.0424212618232100
111192-22.532324261823200
110193-12.0313242617222010
109183-22.03132627172020000
108173-32.24132928161820000
107174-22.105123128161510000
106164-32.1612342915121000000
105165-22.071136291410100000
104155-31.9090137301471000000
103156-21.80100138301450000000
145-41.8010013930145000000
102146-31.80120039311430000000
157-11.8012003930143000000
101147-21.80150038301420000000
136-41.70150038301420000000
100137-31.811800372913100000
148-11.711800382913100000
126-51.711800362913100000
99138-21.63230034271210000000
127-41.742300342712000000
149-01.742300342712000000
98128-31.692700292410000000
139-11.682700312410000000
117-51.5102700282310000000
97129-21.516290025208000000
118-41.51829002319800000
96119-31.428280017146000000
1210-11.42629001915600000
108-51.4292700161460000
951110-21.23724001210400000
109-41.23823001110400000
941010-31.04317007620000
1111-11.04218008620000
931011-20.8411100431000
910-40.7401000431000
92911-30.5335002200000
91912-20.322200110000
90812-30.2131000000
89813-20.1600000000
88713-30.02000000
87714-20.010000
86715-10.00
85514-4No00
84616-1No0
71-83No
Total:1.3%16.617.20.10.221.417.17.61.20.10.20.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Los Angeles vs Washington+0.9+0.2+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6
Columbus vs Tampa Bay+0.2+0.2+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
New Jersey vs Pittsburgh-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Carolina vs NY Rangers+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Montreal vs Columbus-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
117230-028369
116220-1100
115221-02278
114211-15941
113201-2219520
112202-101902600
111192-20872811
110193-10079412230
109183-2068713470
108173-3055111461210
107174-24214129220100
106164-302816910330300
105165-217175104315010
104155-39153850380300
103156-2412165171107010
102146-328034413131140300
101147-2050133181312306000
100137-30200202010233011010
99138-20100101963391170300
127-401010196240118040
98128-300041432412250910
139-100041432412240810
97129-20001101135429116020
118-40019113542911720
96119-300501256281280600
1210-100501266281270600
951110-2002001662323701200
109-4002001562223801310
941010-300100861534202320
931011-200000348340035500
92911-3001232321461210
91912-2001112125021300
90812-3000011124632710
89813-2000042364015200
88713-3000011234226710
87714-20000123435153000
86614-300421352710200
85615-200192532219200
84515-3003132630197200
83516-201414262919710
82416-301416263016610
81417-20161327291761
80418-137153228133
79318-225193425123
78319-12516254111
77219-28334217
76220-15050
75221-05050
74121-1100
71023-003194434
Total:002201118411921411601241000000000000