Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.007 to 99.8%
46 points   21 6-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Ottawa 6 Anaheim 2 +0.4
New Jersey 3 Tampa Bay 2 (so)*+0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Florida+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.2
+2.8+2.8+2.1-2.4-2.4-6.8
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
New Jersey vs Washington+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0
Carolina vs NY Rangers+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
NY Islanders vs Tampa Bay+0.3-0.1*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.2
Toronto vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Columbus vs Chicago+2.5+0.8+0.9-1.0-1.3-1.2
Minnesota vs Nashville+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
San Jose vs St. Louis+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.6-0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
136-148InYes10013,195*
135435-3In99.9%100004,736*
134425-4InYes1009,518*
133426-3In99.91000018,586*
132416-4In99.91000033,991*
131417-3In99.91000061,225*
130407-4In99.910000104,271*
129408-3In99.810000170,981*
128398-4In99.710000272,426*
127399-3In99.510000414,947*
126389-4In99.210000612,714*
125379-5In98.610000878,421*
1243710-4In97.8100001,221,063*
1233610-5In96.6100001,644,896*
1223611-4In94.7100002,149,701*
1213511-5In92.199002,729,704*
1203512-4In88.5991003,367,953*
1193412-5In83.7981004,044,421*
1183413-4In77.6972104,723,017*
1173313-5In70.19531005,381,542*
1163314-4In61.39352005,965,095*
1153214-5In51.49083006,446,219*
1143215-4In40.985114006,799,385*
1133115-5In30.6791560006,987,848*
1123116-4In21.17120800007,014,949*
1113016-5In13.363251200006,876,139*
1103017-4In7.553311510006,578,337*
1092917-5In3.742361911006,151,136*
1082918-4In1.632402332005,613,171*
1072818-5In0.5224326530005,008,331*
1062819-4In0.2154328950004,368,303*
1052719-5In0.0940281570003,721,963*
1042720-4100.0%0.053625221011003,104,333*
1032620-5100.00.023020291431002,529,764*
1022621-4100.00.012415351762002,018,814*
1012521-5100.0No018939181140001,573,087*
1002522-499.9No013540171861001,200,083*
992422-599.7No0823715278200895,644*
982423-499.0No051321135114100653,204*
972323-597.4No03026741128200466,031*
962324-493.8No201944412125100325,474*
952224-587.6No1014244111610200222,647*
942225-477.8No00914181916510148,598*
932125-565.0No06035518221120097,254*
922126-450.7No03029315271840062,664*
912026-537.0No02022212282591038,991*
902027-425.4No010161725311530023,754*
891927-516.0No0110419352460014,074*
881928-49.1No070213333212108,268*
871828-55.5No0419273717304,841*
861829-42.7No204214025602,711*
851729-51.5No121436351111,470*
841730-41.0No1183138192795*
831630-5OutNo1422432550406*
821631-41.0No10316373012202*
811531-5OutNo16354016295*
801532-4OutNo2294620241*
791432-5OutNo4213829824*
781534-2OutNo133844616*
771434-3OutNo3333333*
761132-8OutNo1001
46051-0OutNo1009,347
Total:99.8%34.4%6219105210000000000112,790,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayNY IslandersTorontoDetroitNY RangersMontrealWashingtonFloridaOttawaBostonPhiladelphiaNew JerseyColumbusCarolinaBuffalo
148510-016.6%43595151314151231100
144481-2NoYes
143460-5NoYes
142483-0No252550
141462-314.87441141115191944
140463-217.042866131721915
139464-114.7237791910111410413
138454-212.74487614121613113100
137444-319.94359713121416114010
136445-218.443786151314141141100
135435-315.643797141114151231100
134425-415.843786141115151231100
133426-316.343796151214141131100
132416-416.543796151114141131100
131417-316.243796151214141131100
130407-416.243796151214141131100
129408-316.543796151114141131100
128398-416.343797151114141131100
127399-316.243797151114141131100
126389-416.443797151114141131100
125379-516.343797151114141131100
1243710-416.343797151114141131100
1233610-516.343797151114141131100
1223611-416.343897151114141131100
1213511-516.343897151114141131100
1203512-416.343897151114141131100
1193412-516.343897151114141131100
1183413-416.244897151114141131100
1173313-516.244897151114141131100
1163314-416.144897151113141031100
1153214-516.144897151113131031100
1143215-416.044898151113131031100
1133115-515.9549108151113131031100
1123116-415.754910815111212931100
1113016-515.6541010915111212931100
1103017-415.4641011915111111821100
1092917-515.26511111015111010721000
1082918-415.0751112101511109721000
1072818-514.876121310151199620000
1062819-414.686131311151088520000
1052719-514.396141411151087510000
1042720-414.1107141510151077410000
1032620-513.811715151015976410000
1022621-413.612716161015866410000
1012521-513.31371617914865310000
1002522-413.11481717914755300000
992422-512.81681718814654300000
982423-412.51791718813644200000
972323-512.01891718812643200000
962324-411.51991717711533200000
952224-510.41991616710432100000
942225-49.3189141468422100000
932125-57.6167121247322100000
922126-46.0136993521110000
912026-54.294772411110000
902027-43.06255131110000
891927-52.041331210000000
881928-41.021221100000
871828-50.71011010000
861829-40.2101100000
851830-30.20000000000
841730-4No100
831832-1No
821631-4No00
46-81No
Total:15.4%6.04.610.110.88.414.810.611.311.18.32.50.70.60.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 1 NY Islanders 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Florida-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.4
NY Islanders vs Tampa Bay+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Carolina vs NY Rangers-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
136-148100
135435-3100000
134425-4100
133426-3100000
132416-4100000
131417-3100000
130407-4100000
129408-3100000
128398-4100000
127399-399000
126389-499100
125379-599100
1243710-498200
1233610-597300
1223611-495500
1213511-59270000
1203512-4891010000
1193412-5841510000
1183413-4781920100
1173313-57025301000
1163314-46132502000
1153214-55138803000
1143215-4414411040000
1133115-53148150510000
1123116-4215019171000000
1113016-5134923293000000
1103017-4845274105100000
1092917-54383071181010000
1082918-423030101112301000
1072818-51222815101750200000
1062819-4014241972190410000
1052719-50918225231415200000
1042720-405132332319364101000
1032620-502822119236673010000
1022621-40142001424116116020000
1012521-50216092217414111310000
1002522-40112051722215162421000
992422-5008021125114215532000
982423-4005172501124115540100
972323-500303220723195871200
962324-402011804182639935100
952224-50101130212322910693000
942225-400091733179101471000
932125-500604310561317134100
922126-40030227033131619103000
912026-50020121021101222188200
902027-401001610772025165100
891927-50011004314262412300
881928-400700218212921910
871828-500410415272716510
861829-4200182031251020
851729-510212293018610
841730-41161831281130
831630-5031129291970
821631-411111729271130
811531-54724342172
801532-4722342710
791432-5413293321
781534-21344386
771434-36733
761132-8100
46051-00100
Total:34271355531111000000000000000000