Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances

Beat Boston 3-2 (ot), playoff odds up 0.6 to 99%
30 points   14 4-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)-0.1
-0.1
-2.2
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)*-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs NY Rangers+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.0
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 -0.4
-0.2
-5.5
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 +0.1
Nashville 3 Florida 2 (so)*-0.2
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 +0.4
Boston 0 Montreal 2 -0.3
Dallas 5 Los Angeles 4 +0.3
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 -0.2
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -0.2
Edmonton 1 Chicago 7 -0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
131-154In100.0%1009,045*
1304810-4In100.010005,920*
1294710-5In99.9100009,172*
1284711-4In99.9100014,273*
1274611-5In99.81000021,389*
1264511-6In99.81000031,372*
1254512-5In99.71000044,593*
1244412-6In99.51000062,458*
1234413-5In99.21000084,850*
1224313-6In98.69900112,287*
1214314-5In97.89910145,505*
1204214-6In96.79910184,745*
1194215-5In94.89821227,021*
1184115-6In92.29721274,139*
1174116-5In88.695410324,249*
1164016-6In83.793520376,308*
1154017-5In77.490730425,064*
1143917-6In69.3861040473,235*
1133918-5In60.0811450512,943*
1123818-6In49.5751870545,425*
1113819-5In38.6682390569,635*
1103719-6In27.86028120582,243*
1093720-5In18.551331500582,804*
1083620-6In11.042382000573,638*
1073621-5In5.732432410553,800*
1063521-6In2.624452910523,516*
1053421-7In1.0174635200485,822*
1043422-6In0.3104640400442,836*
1033322-7In0.164245600395,591*
1023323-6100.0%0.0338499000346,541*
1013223-7100.00.01325213100298,778*
1003224-6100.00.012653182000253,820*
993124-799.9No02052243000209,016*
983125-699.7No014493051000171,439*
973025-799.1No0104436731000136,711*
963026-697.4No063740962000107,139*
952926-793.7No4294299510082,945*
942927-686.7No22242912931062,635*
932827-775.9No1153971415720046,803*
922828-662.1No11033514191441034,135*
912728-746.5No06263112220920024,669*
902729-632.6No03201821261551017,047*
892629-720.4No021315162823920012,107*
882630-611.8No190211263016408,243*
872530-76.8No060162031269105,330*
862531-62.9No0300314293316303,641*
852532-51.6No01018253523602,252*
842432-60.5No0141732321211,513*
832332-70.4No0131030361820942*
822333-60.2No00162539254554*
812233-7OutNo0417373211301*
802234-6OutNo1133935111214*
792235-5OutNo63145181108*
782135-6OutNo1224428472*
772136-5OutNo65532631*
761935-8OutNo41544221527*
752037-5OutNo30601010*
741937-6OutNo2957147*
731837-7OutNo3333333*
721838-6OutNo25754*
711738-7OutNo1001
701941-2OutNo1001
30062-0OutNo100863
Total:99.0%34.8%5024205100000000010,421,780

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayNY IslandersDetroitMontrealTorontoOttawaNY RangersWashingtonBostonPhiladelphiaFloridaNew JerseyCarolinaColumbusBuffalo
154620-015.6%52810141366144106100
144564-2NoYes
142555-250.05050
141545-333.3333333
140524-615.48151588815158
139536-317.417131717444994
138526-410.55381316115183163
137516-519.555101312136899433
136517-417.452781413781658611
135507-516.753781414661379510
134508-417.942891115861468610
133498-518.242991311761459721
132499-417.9529914127714795100
131489-517.6429914146613695110
1304810-417.85291013147613695100
1294710-517.2429914147713695200
1284711-417.9429914137614695100
1274611-518.3429913136614695200
1264511-617.8539913137714695100
1254512-517.4439913137713695110
1244412-617.6428913137713695100
1234413-517.6439913137714695200
1224313-617.8429913137713695210
1214314-517.7429913137713695200
1204214-617.7429913137713695210
1194215-517.7439913137713695200
1184115-617.6439913137713695210
1174116-517.7439913137713695200
1164016-617.6439913137713696210
1154017-517.6439913137713695210
1143917-617.5439913138713696200
1133918-517.5439913128812686200
1123818-617.5439912128812686200
1113819-517.4439912129812786200
1103719-617.3439912119911776200
1093720-517.144891111101011776100
1083620-617.144891110111010766200
1073621-516.84588101012119866200
1063521-616.846889913129857200
1053421-716.547789814138957200
1043422-616.448778715157948200
1033322-716.2396677161661048200
1023323-616.03115566181751139200
1013223-715.93124555191841139210
1003224-615.621444442019412210210
993124-715.321533332120312210210
983125-615.121633322121213110210
973025-714.731822222121213111210
963026-614.441822112020112110210
952926-713.351822111919111010210
942927-612.5618321117171100921
932827-710.861622111414090721
922828-68.661222111112070611
912728-76.659220099050410
902729-64.436110066030310
892730-52.824110044020210
882630-61.81200003301100
872631-51.1010001210100
862531-60.4000011000
852431-70.20000000
842533-40.20000
832231-90.1000
822333-6No0
30-81No
Total:16.7%3.95.77.47.810.09.611.311.09.67.86.26.61.60.50.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)+0.2
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 +0.4
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 -0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
132-154100
131489-51000
1304810-41000
1294710-5100000
1284711-410000
1274611-5100000
1264511-6100000
1254512-5100000
1244412-699000
1234413-599000
1224313-699100
1214314-598110
1204214-697210
1194215-595321
1184115-6925201
1174116-589740100
1164016-6849502000
1154017-57713703000
1143917-669171004000
1133918-560211405000
1123818-649261807000
1113819-539292219000
1103719-628322621110000
1093720-5183230413110000
1083620-61131326153100000
1073621-56273211175301000
1063521-63213016168501000
1053421-71162521141280200000
1043422-601020261116121300000
1033322-70613297181724100000
1023323-60382941821662100000
1013223-701527216231264301000
1003224-6012241122219576020000
993124-7011908172749101310000
983125-600140412332101444110000
973025-70010027351917843301000
963026-6006133307171645512000
952926-704012804142436725100
942927-602002102930278494100
932827-7010015153216771383000
922828-61010033004410141472000
912728-70060125022912191462000
902729-6030020011781920145100
892629-70201310541322211351000
882630-61090022718242111410
872530-700501031021252011300
862531-60300015142226198200
852532-501001616272516610
842432-600381928231441
832332-7001510242623821
822333-6000261728271451
812233-70292129251130
802234-6017143425144
792235-511319382081
782135-61112938147
772136-526391916
761935-8151933267
752037-51020501010
741937-6292943
731837-7333333
721838-67525
70-71100
30062-0100
Total:351515875541111000000000000000000