Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances

Beat Los Angeles 3-0, playoff odds up 6.3 to 87.4%
13 points   6 2-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 -5.6
-0.5
-1.6
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.3
+0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.4
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +0.3
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*-0.3
-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
133-159In100.0%10070,847*
1325711-5In99.910005,738*
1315611-6In100.0100010,297*
1305511-7In100.01000018,425*
1295512-6In100.0100032,130*
1285412-7In99.91000053,500*
1275413-6In99.91000088,685*
1265313-7In99.910000144,087*
1255314-6In99.810000227,752*
1245214-7In99.710000351,707*
1235215-6In99.610000533,130*
1225115-7In99.410000789,050*
1215116-6In99.0100001,147,914*
1205016-7In98.5100001,628,016*
1194916-8In97.699102,271,190*
1184917-7In96.3991003,106,278*
1174817-8In94.6981004,164,105*
1164818-7In92.0982005,483,277*
1154718-8In88.6963107,082,552*
1144719-7In83.99541008,970,922*
1134619-8In77.99261011,167,609*
1124620-7In70.589920013,653,976*
1114520-8In61.6851230016,389,790*
1104521-7In51.6801640019,337,001*
1094421-8In40.9742060022,416,169*
1084422-7In30.2662680025,539,427*
1074322-8In20.557311100028,600,526*
1064323-7In12.548361510031,490,293*
1054223-8100.0%6.7384120100034,102,744*
1044224-7100.03.1284425300036,318,029*
1034124-8100.01.2204630400038,032,702*
1024125-7100.00.41345357100039,177,474*
1014025-8100.00.17423910100039,714,579*
1004026-7100.00.043642152000039,605,409*
993926-8100.00.023044204000038,849,921*
983927-799.90.0123432661000037,511,986*
973827-899.5No0173931930000035,649,499*
963828-798.3No01134351261000033,349,846*
953728-895.4No072737141041000030,701,137*
943729-789.3No042136141482000027,814,500*
933629-878.9No02143212181461000024,822,301*
923630-764.2No0192791820124100021,792,067*
913530-847.3No152051623199200018,836,435*
903531-731.1No0314311222515510016,034,758*
893431-818.2No0191618272311300013,436,683*
883432-79.5No0150312242818710011,082,253*
873332-84.5No003017192926133008,998,799*
863333-72.0No001003122530207107,200,159*
853233-80.8No001001619312812205,669,314*
843234-70.3No000000312273319404,397,083*
833134-80.1No00000017213427813,358,717*
823135-70.0No00000031432341422,522,353*
813035-80.0No000002927392131,867,661*
803036-70.0No00001521402861,360,989*
792936-80.0No000031538369976,534*
782937-70.0No0000110344214689,944*
772837-80.0No00016294619479,404*
762838-7OutNo003234826327,037*
752738-8OutNo002174833220,607*
742739-7OutNo01134640145,819*
732639-8OutNo009434895,482*
722640-7OutNo006395561,159*
712540-8OutNo04346238,697*
702541-7OutNo02296823,977*
692441-8OutNo02247414,635*
682442-7OutNo120798,752*
672342-8OutNo116835,273*
662343-7OutNo013873,011*
652243-8OutNo11891,736*
642244-7OutNo0892990*
632144-8OutNo496523*
622145-7OutNo397277*
612146-6OutNo397177*
602046-7OutNo19985*
591946-8OutNo10040*
582048-5OutNo39730*
13-57OutNo10064,700*
Total:87.4%13.1%252221134333221100780,140,680

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayDetroitOttawaMontrealWashingtonNY IslandersNew JerseyPhiladelphiaNY RangersTorontoBostonFloridaColumbusCarolinaBuffalo
159730-012.8%789966666101010511
143636-433.36733
142648-125.025252525
141616-622.211221111112211
140617-5No152315888815
139618-413.6521455751159911112
138608-519.86666559791299101
137598-69.97948845788915712
136599-58.97871088778987511
135589-613.2698879767989621
1345810-512.77881067876988621
1335710-613.27781067666999721
1325711-513.6788967776999621
1315611-612.3688877677999621
1305511-712.97889677779109621
1295512-612.9788867777999621
1285412-712.8788967777999621
1275413-612.9788977777999621
1265313-712.9788967777999621
1255314-612.8788967777999621
1245214-712.6688967777999621
1235215-612.7788967777999621
1225115-712.8788967777999621
1215116-612.8788967777999621
1205016-712.8688977777999621
1194916-812.8688977777999621
1184917-712.8688977777999621
1174817-812.8688977777999621
1164818-712.7688977777999621
1154718-812.7688977777999621
1144719-712.7688977777999621
1134619-812.7688977777998621
1124620-712.7688977777998621
1114520-812.7688977777998621
1104521-712.6688877777888621
1094421-812.6688878777888621
1084422-712.5688888877888621
1074322-812.4688888877887621
1064323-712.3678898888777610
1054223-812.2677899988777610
1044224-712.16777109988776710
1034124-811.9566711101099666710
1024125-711.856661211101010555710
1014025-811.655551312111010555810
1004026-711.445551413121111444810
993926-811.244441513131111333810
983927-710.944441614131212333920
973827-810.743331714131212222920
963828-710.443331714131212222920
953728-89.943331614131212222920
943729-79.153331513121111111820
933629-88.0533313111099111710
923630-76.45333119877111510
913530-84.7422286655111410
903531-73.1322154433000210
893431-81.8211132222000100
883432-70.9100021111000100
873332-80.4000011111000000
863333-70.2000000000000000
853233-80.1000000000000000
843234-70.0000000000000000
833134-80.000000000000000
823135-70.00000000000000
813035-80.000000000
803137-50.0000000
793037-60.0000
783038-5No0
772938-6No0
13-76No
Total:10.1%4.75.05.05.110.69.69.18.48.44.54.54.36.51.40.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 +1.2
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 -0.1
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 +0.1
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 +0.0
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 -0.0
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
134-159100
1335710-61000
1325711-510000
1315611-610000
1305511-7100000
1295512-610000
1285412-7100000
1275413-6100000
1265313-7100000
1255314-6100000
1245214-7100000
1235215-6100000
1225115-799000
1215116-699100
1205016-798100
1194916-898210
1184917-796310000
1174817-89541000
1164818-7926200000
1154718-8898301000
1144719-784114010000
1134619-87814601000
1124620-770199020000
1114520-8622412030000
1104521-75228150400000
1094421-8413319160000000
1084422-7303624280000000
1074322-821372741010000000
1064323-713353071221010000
1054223-87313011144201000000
1044224-73252816147402000000
1034124-8119242213106040000000
1024125-7012182710141016100100000
1014025-80712297161428210100000
1004026-70472931617594202000000
993926-802426114181097504000000
983927-70122201016167108151100000
973827-80116061122412132723000000
963828-7001103724212166855010000
953728-8007013230916116881410000
943729-7004001190612184101047310000
933629-800200140382221198127200000
923630-70010090142218612141362000000
913530-80100500218053131217147210000
903531-70003011403110716201583100000
893431-8000100901063101921169310000
883432-70001005000314122023179310000
873332-800000300101513212318931000
863333-700001000002614222418931000
853233-800001000000261523251882000
843234-700000000027162525166100
833134-800000000013919272413410
823135-7000000001412232821920
813035-80000000161627281650
803036-70000002922312591
792936-8000015152931163
782937-70000292435245
772837-80001518353210
762838-7000212323815
752738-80018274322
742739-70004214430
732639-8002164438
722640-7001114246
712540-80173755
702541-70043263
692441-8032769
682442-7022376
672342-8011881
662343-711485
652243-801188
642244-70991
632144-8496
622145-7397
612146-6397
602046-7199
591946-8100
582048-5397
13-57100
Total:1312111155563344222222211111110000