Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances

Tied with Nashville 0-0 (8:00 PM ET), playoff odds down 0.03 to 59%
7 points   3 2-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 -5.6
-0.5
-1.6
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.3
+0.1
+0.1
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.4
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +0.3
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*-0.3
-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-159InYes100539*
1235414-8In97.6%9911170*
1225415-7In98.9100272*
1215315-8In98.61000420*
1205316-7In97.69910660*
1195216-8In96.699101,067*
1185217-7In94.999101,593*
1175117-8In92.398212,415*
1165118-7In89.997213,554*
1155018-8In86.595315,171*
1144918-9In80.493527,354*
1134919-8In73.8917310,232*
1124819-9In65.98794013,558*
1114820-8In56.482126018,141*
1104720-9In46.576168024,059*
1094721-8In36.96920110030,629*
1084621-9In26.26124151039,263*
1074622-8In17.35129181049,158*
1064522-9In10.742322320060,208*
1054523-8In5.533352840072,518*
1044423-9In2.424373360086,195*
1034424-8In0.9163638910100,187*
1024324-9100.0%0.310344113200115,403*
1014325-8100.00.15304418300130,654*
1004225-9100.00.032443235100145,144*
994226-899.9No11941298100159,831*
984126-999.6No014373312300171,226*
974127-898.8No0931361661000181,911*
964027-996.7No06253719103000190,477*
954028-892.2No031835201661000195,654*
943928-983.7No0212311820124100197,619*
933929-871.1No0182515231882000197,531*
923829-955.0No0519102224155100193,816*
913830-838.2No02135172622113100187,583*
903730-923.1No0182112327187200178,720*
893731-812.6No01516172725134100166,767*
883631-95.9No00303112329219200154,473*
873632-82.5No00101617282715410141,488*
863532-91.0No0100310233022910126,129*
853533-80.3No0000151729291530111,800*
843433-90.1No00002102533227196,783*
833434-80.0No0001618332911282,466*
823334-90.0No0000312293518369,743*
813335-80.0No00017233825558,308*
803235-9OutNo0014173732947,435*
793236-8OutNo0021233391438,170*
783136-9OutNo01729432030,684*
773137-8OutNo00423462723,614*
763037-9OutNo0317463518,605*
753038-8OutNo00113434313,966*
742938-9OutNo019395110,553*
732939-8OutNo0535597,719*
722839-9OutNo0431655,424*
712840-8OutNo0225733,948*
702740-9OutNo0220782,711*
692741-8OutNo116831,923*
682641-9OutNo012881,276*
672642-8OutNo01189868*
662542-9OutNo0991597*
652543-8OutNo0694372*
642443-9OutNo496260*
632444-8OutNo397156*
622344-9OutNo10098*
612345-8OutNo29863*
602245-9OutNo39731*
7-59OutNo100378*
Total:59.0%2.6%69151567776655323,989,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayOttawaWashingtonDetroitMontrealNY IslandersColumbusNew JerseyNY RangersTorontoFloridaPhiladelphiaBostonCarolinaBuffalo
159760-06.1%8847796126877822
1326011-5NoYes
1295711-8No25252525
1285712-7No50171717
1275713-610.5165111121551611
1265613-73.031599633927636
1255513-85.03871377101012521025
1245615-511.56117871351027371021
1235414-89.44119899497976521
1225415-77.05107769888767721
1215315-88.35778711768966832
1205316-79.56688976910668631
1195216-87.2677688987887621
1185217-77.56777791098776731
1175117-88.16786891097767721
1165118-77.9677779988877721
1155018-87.5678678999878721
1144918-98.1678779988777621
1134919-87.6668679989877731
1124819-97.1678779898767631
1114820-87.8569779999777621
1104720-97.5669679998768621
1094721-87.25696710998768521
1084621-97.1561066111099667521
1074622-87.15610661110109657521
1064522-96.95612661210109657521
1054523-87.14512561211119557421
1044423-96.94513551311119547421
1034424-86.644145514121110448321
1024324-96.744154415131210438320
1014325-86.534164415131210338320
1004225-96.433173316131311328220
994226-86.133173316141311228220
984126-96.043173317141311228220
974127-85.943173316131310228120
964027-95.754174316131210218120
954028-85.36416441512119217120
943928-94.8641444131098116110
933929-83.964124411886115110
923829-93.1549338665113110
913830-82.1436226443102010
903730-91.3324113222001000
893731-80.7112112111001000
883631-90.3101001110000000
873632-80.1000000000000000
863532-90.100000000000000
853533-80.00000000000000
843534-70.000000000000
833333-100.000000000
823334-90.0000
813234-10No0
7-80No
Total:3.7%3.22.79.32.62.68.87.26.85.71.71.54.41.31.00.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 +1.2
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 +0.1
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 +0.0
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 -0.0
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124-159100
1235414-898111
1225415-7991
1215315-89910
1205316-798210
1195216-897310
1185217-795410
1175117-892521
1165118-790721
1155018-8869301
1144918-9801352
1134919-874177030
1124819-96621904000
1114820-856251206000
1104720-947291518000
1094721-83732191100000
1084621-92635222131010
1074622-817342541621100
1064522-911322661931020000
1054523-862725102053030000
1044423-922123141995050000
1034424-81151918171380800100
1024324-90101420131612111112000
1014325-805921818162133103000
1004225-90351941718515530501000
994226-8121711417913960801000
984126-9011309141310121111113000
974127-8009051017614152133601000
964027-9006025172131751361003000
954028-8003121519169111014261000
943928-90020111051213612164114100
933929-8001008037153121491793000
923829-900050131419913191672000
913830-8000201110541316211572000
903730-900010080211010202215721000
893731-801005010641322221683100
883631-90000300031614222316831000
873632-8000010010271523231683100
863532-90010000271523231782000
853533-8000000138162424167200
843433-900000139182523156100
833434-80000141020262312410
823334-9000001513232720920
813335-80000261626271651
803235-90001310223024102
793236-80015152830174
783136-9000292334257
773137-801517323312
763037-900311293919
753038-800017244226
742938-9004184136
732939-802134046
722839-90193654
712840-80053362
702740-9052669
692741-8022177
682641-911683
672642-811385
662542-911189
652543-80891
642443-9793
632444-81397
622344-9100
612345-8298
602245-9397
7-59100
Total:344534453344334344444333322211