Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 70.8%
57 points   25 17-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Nashville 3 Philadelphia 6 -0.9
Florida 6 Detroit 3 +0.6
Ottawa 2 Edmonton 7 +0.5
Buffalo 2 Boston 3 (so)-0.4
NY Rangers 4 Minnesota 2 -0.4
Washington 3 NY Islanders 2 +0.3
Toronto 3 New Jersey 2 (so)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh-5.3+0.2+0.2+5.4+6.2+6.4
-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Winnipeg vs Carolina+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123330-0In90.7%919267,444
122320-1InYes1001
121310-2In66.767339*
120311-1In54.5554544*
119301-2In44.94555205*
118302-1In40.242058850*
117292-2In30.5340662,974*
116282-3In20.5240769,146*
115283-2In14.41808226,253*
114273-3In8.912187068,173*
113274-2In5.181910165,269*
112264-3In2.751940375,465*
111265-2In1.331960802,169*
110255-3In0.52197001,615,037*
109245-4In0.21098103,082,280*
108246-3In0.11098105,563,856*
107236-4In0.00097309,589,278*
106237-3In0.0009550015,732,367*
105227-4In0.0009280024,705,801*
104228-3In0.00087120037,073,081*
103218-4In0.00081181053,354,549*
102219-3100.0%No00732520073,635,969*
101209-4100.0No00633340097,674,932*
1002010-3100.0No005240700124,496,600*
991910-4100.0No00414612100152,783,522*
981911-3100.0No003049192000180,416,257*
971811-499.8No02048284000205,411,051*
961812-399.3No012433591000225,441,493*
951712-497.8No0735401620000238,625,782*
941713-393.9No0326392660000243,642,442*
931613-485.9No01173335122000240,252,337*
921614-372.8No011023392250000228,614,673*
911514-455.4No005143631112000210,108,457*
901515-337.0No00272837215000186,432,126*
891415-421.1No013173630112000159,780,749*
881416-310.1No00192836205000132,216,130*
871316-44.0No0004183630112000105,721,069*
861317-31.3No00019283620400081,568,596*
851217-40.3No000041936301010060,783,955*
841218-30.1No00011030371930043,683,950*
831118-40.0No0000420372981030,303,594*
821119-30.0No00002113237162020,263,070*
811019-40.0No00052340265013,068,325*
801020-3OutNo0021437361118,110,595*
79920-4OutNo001729422024,851,394*
78921-3OutNo00320433042,794,329*
77821-4OutNo00112394081,542,108*
76822-3OutNo006314814816,158*
75722-4OutNo003235222417,128*
74723-3OutNo01155232202,868*
73623-4OutNo009484294,698*
72624-3OutNo05425341,636*
71625-2OutNo03346317,606*
70525-3OutNo0127727,106*
69526-2OutNo120802,664*
68426-3OutNo013871,000*
67427-2OutNo0991350*
66327-3OutNo991128*
65328-2OutNo39731*
62-64OutNo1008*
57033-0OutNo0100267,443
Total:70.8%0.0%00162218151185311003,226,526,580

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonFloridaTampa BayNY RangersNY IslandersBostonDetroitNew JerseyPhiladelphiaCarolinaMontrealOttawaTorontoBuffaloColumbus
123330-02.9%0317166121811672200
122320-1NoYes
121310-2No1144112211
120311-16.82272725147115
119301-22.913029571663200
118302-13.30131283416942110
117292-22.201363024137321000
116282-32.40137341312721000
115283-22.401393612116210000
114273-32.3000403712116210000
113274-22.3000423811106200000
112264-32.2000433901105100000
111265-22.200044390095100000
110255-32.200044400095100000
109245-42.200045400095100000
108246-32.200045400095100000
107236-42.200045400095100000
106237-32.100046400095100000
105227-42.100046400085100000
104228-32.100046400085100000
103218-42.101046390085100000
102219-32.001046390085100000
101209-42.003045380085100000
1002010-32.006143360074100000
991910-41.9110241341074100000
981911-31.9214238311064100000
1810-51.9216337301064100000
971811-41.9522433261053100000
1912-21.9522433261053100000
961812-31.8827428221053100000
1711-51.81029527202043100000
951712-41.71732521152032100000
1813-21.71732521152032100000
941713-31.72532516112021000000
1612-51.62732514101021000000
931613-41.5352741061011000000
1714-21.535274961011000000
921614-31.239203641010000000
911514-40.936122320000000000
901515-30.62761110000000000
891415-40.31730100000000000
881416-30.2910000000000000
871316-40.1400000000000000
861317-30.01000000000000
851217-40.0000000000000
841218-30.0000000000
831118-40.0000000000
821119-30.0000000
811019-4No00
57-80No
Total:1.3%15.014.52.318.314.50.70.13.01.80.40.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington 3 NY Islanders 2 -0.1
NY Rangers 4 Minnesota 2 +0.1
Nashville 3 Philadelphia 6 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh+0.7-0.0-0.0-0.7-0.8-0.9

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123330-09109
122320-1100
121310-26733
120311-15545
119301-245055
118302-1402058
117292-23030660
116282-32130760
115283-21430810
114273-39418610
113274-2531089200
112264-3331090400
111265-2121088800
110255-311108413000
109245-4010078191100
108246-300006928101000
107236-400005836203000
106237-3000046455050000
105227-40000335180800000
104228-3000022531201200000
103218-4000013511711710100
102219-3000644212223002000
101209-4000334243265104000
1002010-30001232352893070000
991910-40000132082613601201000
981911-300007149211711019120000
971811-4000398141816025240000
961812-3000157716191305901000
951712-40002531119231916020000
941713-30001316163261325160000
931613-40001031041716323122000
921614-30000015491532721510000
911514-4000000233112512301220000
901515-3000000111614143223710000
891415-400000103612273116410000
881416-300000012716302713410000
871316-400000003620292412410000
861317-300000001292128221141000
851217-4000000031021272211410000
841218-30000003102127221131000
831118-400000013112228221130000
821119-30000001311232821102000
811019-4000014122429208200
801020-30001515272917510
79920-4000161830281330
78921-30002923332481
77821-400003143033162
76822-300172237276
75722-4000313343812
74723-30017274420
73623-4003194731
72624-3001124443
71625-20063856
70525-3033067
69526-2012376
68426-3001684
67427-211288
66327-3991
65328-2397
62-64100
57033-00100
Total:00002653767112611396432211100000