Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances

Beat Arizona 4-2, playoff odds up 3.4 to 28%
37 points   17 14-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Arizona 2 Pittsburgh 4 +3.5
+0.0
NY Islanders 4 Los Angeles 3 (ot)-0.6
Boston 2 NY Rangers 3 (ot)-0.6
Philadelphia 2 Dallas 1 (ot)-0.5
Washington 3 Anaheim 2 (ot)-0.4
Ottawa 3 Montreal 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Vegas vs Florida+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
133480-0In99.4%9915,243
121-122InYes1003*
120405-3In71.471297*
119395-4In68.8693116*
118396-3In44.1475334*
117386-4In35.4406096*
116387-3In30.73862199*
115377-4In22.530700449*
114367-5In14.921771893*
113368-4In10.3188021,953*
112358-5In7.71583203,588*
111359-4In4.31184406,823*
110349-5In2.38857012,154*
109339-6In1.1685100021,645*
1083310-5In0.5481141036,322*
1073210-6In0.2276202060,637*
1063211-5In0.11692630095,949*
1053111-6100.0%0.0160336000147,852*
1043112-5100.00.00503910100221,551*
1033012-6100.00.00404315200323,852*
1023013-5100.0No0294422500459,065*
1012913-699.9No02041299100634,774*
1002914-599.8No0133534153000854,689*
992814-699.3No0727372261001,117,852*
982815-598.0No04193529112001,422,656*
972715-695.3No2123034184001,767,325*
962716-590.1No1622352691002,142,613*
952616-681.6No03153133153002,528,627*
942617-569.7No01824362461002,910,352*
932517-655.0No004163431121003,269,100*
922518-539.4No002102837204003,581,871*
912418-625.3No001520372981003,825,795*
902419-514.3No0002123336152003,995,902*
892319-67.0No001625402450004,069,730*
882320-53.0No0003163732101004,043,507*
872220-61.1No00193138173003,923,763*
862221-50.3No00042240257103,719,078*
852121-60.1No0002143633132003,435,384*
842122-50.0No00182837215003,101,999*
832022-60.0No00420372910102,733,895*
822023-50.0No00213323516302,354,229*
811923-60.0No0017263824501,977,835*
801924-5OutNo004183731901,623,395*
791824-6OutNo0021233381501,296,019*
781825-5OutNo001727422211,013,152*
771725-6OutNo0042043311773,872*
761726-5OutNo0021441403575,962*
751626-6OutNo01937494418,126*
741627-5OutNo00531577296,005*
731527-6OutNo003246210203,615*
721528-5OutNo002186615137,007*
711428-6OutNo0113672089,796*
701429-5OutNo008652657,324*
691329-6OutNo05623235,748*
681330-5OutNo03573921,750*
671230-6OutNo02524612,766*
661231-5OutNo146537,371*
651131-6OutNo139604,108*
641132-5OutNo034662,166*
631032-6OutNo028721,208*
621033-5OutNo02377567*
611034-4OutNo2278298*
60934-5OutNo1288146*
59834-6OutNo138763*
58835-5OutNo79327*
37-57OutNo1005,268*
Total:28.0%0.0%023571013151511963065,385,066

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayTorontoWashingtonBostonNew JerseyColumbusNY RangersNY IslandersPhiladelphiaCarolinaMontrealFloridaOttawaDetroitBuffalo
133480-02.0%01111616151712711100
122414-3NoYes
121415-2No5050
120405-3No295714
119395-4No19192561966
118396-32.912189182699
117386-4No151426141513311
116387-31.521411315211911511
115377-40.9116017151419116110
114367-51.019015181616950010
113368-41.50151171717161060100
112358-51.50170161716151050000
111359-42.00170171616161060000
110349-51.60160171817151050000
109339-61.600170171717161050000
1083310-51.80170171717151050000
1073210-61.50018017171715950000
1063211-51.600180171717159500000
1053111-61.600190181717159500000
1043112-51.500190181817158400000
1033012-61.500190181817158400000
1023013-51.51019018181715840000
1012913-61.420200181817147400000
1002914-51.430200181716147300000
992814-61.360190171716136300000
982815-51.2120180161615126300000
972715-61.2180170151413115200000
2614-81.2190160151413105200000
962716-51.126014013121194200000
2817-31.126014013121194200000
952616-60.9310120109873100000
2515-80.9320110109863100000
942617-50.83509087652100000
2516-70.83508076542100000
2718-30.83408076542100000
932517-60.63306054431000000
2416-80.63205044321000000
922518-50.42703032211000000
912418-60.31902011110000000
902419-50.11201010000000000
892319-60.1600000000000000
882320-50.0300000000000000
872220-60.0100000000000000
862221-50.0000000000000000
852121-60.000000000000000
842122-50.0000000000
832123-40.00000000
822124-3No00000
812024-4No0
37-80No
Total:0.3%10.10.13.90.03.53.33.02.41.10.50.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Arizona 2 Pittsburgh 4 -0.6
NY Islanders 4 Los Angeles 3 (ot)+0.1
SundayNone

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
133480-0991
121-122100
120405-37129
119395-46931
118396-344353
117386-435460
116387-331762
115377-42286910
114367-515677010
113368-41077822
112358-587794200
111359-4477774000
110349-52674116100
109339-614681782000
1083310-513582310310100
1073210-602472912710200
1063211-5013534131130300000
1053111-60124361217405000000
1043112-5001536922718201000
1033012-600832626921140020000
1023013-504253261051480040000
1012913-6021812398141410811000
1002914-5011201771011212013230000
992814-60070115127263017560100
982815-500406211427411910101200
972715-60203181234217171624000
962716-50110501633122220691000
952616-60000309247242111144000
942617-500010413321181820820000
932517-60000020211611232316510000
922518-500001010952321231241000
912418-60000001052181525211031000
902419-500000020128212619930000
892319-600000106312242618820000
882320-5000000031515252616620000
872220-6000010271826251451000
862221-5000000392027231241000
852121-60000001411222721103000
842122-50000015142527188200
832022-60000027172726155100
822023-50000031021292311300
811923-600001413262919710
801924-5000271930271320
791824-60000312263221500
781825-5000161933301100
771725-6000031230361810
761726-50001723402720
751626-6000316393730
741627-500210354760
731527-600162954100
721528-500032259140
711428-60011662201
701429-5011161271
691329-60757342
681330-50451414
671230-60245476
661231-5138519
651131-61305514
641132-50255618
631032-60185824
621033-50165728
611034-4144838
60934-544749
59834-6104446
58835-54159
57735-61783
56938-12575
55737-4100
54738-3100
37-53100
Total:0001011113012546677777765543200