Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.008 to 98.6%
28 points   13 4-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)-0.1
-0.1
-2.2
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)*-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs NY Rangers+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 -0.4
-0.2
-5.5
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 +0.1
Nashville 3 Florida 2 (so)*-0.2
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 +0.4
Boston 0 Montreal 2 -0.3
Dallas 5 Los Angeles 4 +0.3
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 -0.2
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -0.2
Edmonton 1 Chicago 7 -0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
129-154In100.0%1006,821*
1284710-6In99.910004,136*
1274711-5In99.8100006,441*
1264611-6In99.8100009,656*
1254612-5In99.81000014,085*
1244512-6In99.51000020,283*
1234513-5In99.11000027,664*
1224413-6In98.5991037,258*
1214414-5In97.7991050,206*
1204314-6In96.5991064,545*
1194315-5In94.7982082,127*
1184215-6In91.99631100,984*
1174216-5In88.19541121,805*
1164116-6In83.19261144,923*
1154117-5In76.58992167,499*
1144017-6In68.5851230189,185*
1134018-5In59.0801640211,560*
1123918-6In48.3742160229,524*
1113919-5In37.6662680245,040*
1103819-6In27.15832100257,075*
1093719-7In17.949381300264,492*
1083720-6In10.63943170266,603*
1073620-7In5.630482200263,097*
1063621-6In2.522512610255,604*
1053521-7In0.9155231200241,513*
1043522-6In0.39513730226,336*
1033422-7In0.154842400207,897*
1023423-6100.0%0.0343477000186,504*
1013323-7In0.0137511010164,440*
1003324-6100.00.00315315100143,064*
993224-799.9No02454202000121,495*
983225-699.8No018522631000101,826*
973125-799.1No013483252100083,611*
963126-697.6No08423764200067,541*
953026-793.9No5354167510053,167*
943027-687.2No32742598410041,622*
932927-777.3No2204141113720031,847*
922928-664.0No11437310171351023,595*
912828-749.4No09311818201020017,639*
902829-635.1No05241517251751012,759*
892729-722.7No03170313272511209,079*
882730-614.7No112019242917506,391*
872630-77.8No170051933251014,309*
862631-64.7No040214293216302,849*
852531-72.1No02018223724501,997*
842532-60.9No1041933301211,228*
832432-70.4No00021229361730809*
822433-60.2No01824422230501*
812333-7OutNo021937339299*
802334-6OutNo1113635162195*
792234-7OutNo63336242104*
782235-6OutNo2284719447*
772236-5OutNo4183239728*
762035-8OutNo19483321*
752137-5OutNo547371119*
742037-6OutNo6325138*
732038-5OutNo1750336*
722039-4OutNo1003*
28-71OutNo100398*
Total:98.6%29.0%432821510000000004,793,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayMontrealNY IslandersDetroitOttawaTorontoWashingtonBostonNY RangersFloridaPhiladelphiaNew JerseyCarolinaColumbusBuffalo
154630-018.2%78112161431651032101
141555-3NoYes
140545-4No5050
139535-512.51313251338
138547-222.21111112211111111
137537-310.0551020152010105
136516-616.379121671412195
135517-59.6353101915512118431
134518-420.5643131118513511462
133508-516.048312131461451145010
132509-416.85521016165144135511
131499-515.46921013154135134511
1304910-416.467210141551551254100
1294810-516.768212131451451244100
1284710-617.756211131651451254100
1274711-516.557210141551451254110
1264611-617.557211151451451254100
1254612-516.757211141451451254100
1244512-616.757211141451451254100
1234513-516.757211141451451254100
1224413-616.957211141451451254100
1214414-516.757211141451451154100
1204314-616.957211141451451254100
1194315-517.057211141451451154100
1184215-616.757211141451451254100
1174216-516.957211141451451154100
1164116-616.957211141461451154100
1154117-516.657211141461451154100
1144017-616.757211131461351155100
1134018-516.757211131461361155100
1123918-616.557211131371361155100
1113919-516.457211131371261065100
1103819-616.557311131381261065100
1093719-716.46731112128127965100
1083720-616.45731112129117975100
1073620-716.257410111110108876100
1063621-616.057410101011108786100
1053521-715.9575910101399787100
1043522-615.956699914810697200
1033422-715.6467888167115108200
1023423-615.3459777176125119210
1013323-715.23410666195134129210
1003324-614.934125552041431310210
993224-714.833134442131521411210
983225-614.523153332231521411210
973125-714.322163222321611512310
963126-614.132172212311511411310
953026-713.333172112111511411210
943027-612.24316211201131131021
932927-710.7431521118012011921
922928-68.843121101401009721
912828-76.8329100120707621
902829-65.021600080505411
892830-52.811400050304310
882730-62.110300040202210
872731-51.00010221100
862631-60.60010111100
852531-70.400100000
842431-80.100000
832533-50.100
822433-6No0
28-81No
Total:15.8%4.86.25.49.110.110.211.09.78.37.77.76.31.50.50.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)+0.2
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 +0.4
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 -0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
131-154100
1304910-41000
1294810-51000
1284710-610000
1274711-5100000
1264611-6100000
1254612-5100000
1244512-699000
1234513-599100
1224413-699110
1214414-598110
1204314-697210
1194315-595320
1184215-69253010
1174216-588740100
1164116-68396010
1154117-5761390200
1144017-668171203000
1134018-559211604000
1123918-648252006000
1113919-538282518000
1103819-627313029100
1093719-7183134411110000
1083720-611293771322000
1073620-76243711144300000
1063621-63193516147501000
1053521-7114312212109010000
1043522-609242710131412000
1033422-7051731615192311000
1023423-603113231524542100000
1013323-70173111226114330100
1003324-60032709251845601000
993224-7022206212736101200000
983225-60117031534271432110000
973125-70012019371617732201000
963126-6008153605181433402000
953026-705023203162224614100
943027-6030126011129146384100
932927-720020173304551183000
922928-610140433033713147200
912828-7009022901161118146200
902829-60050123010571720146100
892729-7030170033122121135100
882730-61012011717222112410
872630-71070003920252111310
862631-604001412222518930
852531-702001615242716710
842532-610381926221550
832432-70000511222921920
822433-60181726271650
812333-7292429241021
802334-6131329321461
792234-711203320142
782235-61332321742
772236-51418362111
762035-81014293810
751935-95113726165
742037-6385013
732038-5176717
722039-46733
28-71100
Total:2914181064651122000000000000000000