Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances

Plays at Colorado 9:30 PM, playoff odds up 0.4 to 54.8%
25 points   10 8-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Florida 2 Anaheim 3 +0.5
Detroit 4 St. Louis 3 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Colorado vs Pittsburgh-4.7*+0.2+0.3+4.9+5.6+5.6
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston vs NY Islanders+0.4-0.3*-0.1-0.9-0.5-0.2
Ottawa vs NY Rangers+0.5*-0.0*-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.4
Columbus vs Minnesota-0.4-0.3-0.3*+0.2*+0.3+0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121-143In99.3%100428*
120448-7In94.498289*
1194510-4In90.19371151*
1184410-5In85.89270352*
1174310-6In83.99090552*
1164311-5In76.288111995*
1154211-6In67.4831611,539*
1144212-5In59.87821202,550*
1134112-6In48.97027303,977*
1124113-5In38.46332506,028*
1114013-6In27.35341708,996*
1104014-5In19.144478013,006*
1093914-6In11.9345312018,291*
1083814-7In6.22658161025,522*
1073815-6In3.11860211034,384*
1063715-7In1.41260262045,373*
1053716-6In0.5757324059,172*
1043616-7In0.14523770074,878*
1033617-6In0.024642101092,063*
1023517-7100.0%0.01384514100111,774*
1013518-6100.0No0304620300131,992*
1003418-799.9No02245275100153,570*
993419-699.8No016423272000173,974*
983319-799.1No0113637105100194,405*
973320-697.6No062940139200210,575*
963220-794.0No4224014155100225,109*
953221-687.3No21537132010200236,483*
943121-776.4No110311024175100242,344*
933122-662.2No062472424113000243,260*
923022-745.9No031842129186100240,015*
913023-630.2No02112152926123000231,819*
902923-717.8No017192530197100219,563*
892924-68.9No0040518302613300203,833*
882824-74.1No00202112530208100184,918*
872825-61.6No0101618302714400165,813*
862725-70.6No0000311253121810145,130*
852726-60.2No0000161830281430124,927*
842626-70.1No0000031126322171105,680*
832627-60.0No0001619322812286,784*
822527-70.0No000312283319471,012*
812528-6OutNo0017223527756,090*
802428-7OutNo00141634341244,215*
792429-6OutNo021029391933,588*
782329-7OutNo001624432725,128*
772330-6OutNo00317423718,669*
762230-7OutNo0212404713,365*
752231-6OutNo01835579,450*
742131-7OutNo00530656,609*
732132-6OutNo00224744,436*
722032-7OutNo0120792,962*
712033-6OutNo115841,954*
701933-7OutNo18911,276*
691934-6OutNo0694763*
681834-7OutNo0396494*
671835-6OutNo0594300*
661735-7OutNo595162*
651736-6OutNo39788*
25-64OutNo100453*
Total:54.8%0.5%19151748998654314,311,328

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTorontoTampa BayBuffaloWashingtonBostonColumbusNY IslandersCarolinaNY RangersMontrealNew JerseyFloridaDetroitPhiladelphiaOttawa
143590-05.2%347613119881145634
127496-4NoYes
125487-4No333333
124477-5No333333
123456-8No3367
122479-3No84131742181384
121469-44.0106161081012124642
120448-75.6441371116118772332
1194510-46.0368516101596735522
1184410-54.334671211111261055413
1174310-66.0336812813109856523
1164311-55.34567138121071076412
1154211-65.9457614910981155412
1144212-56.244861210111071055412
1134112-65.845971591087955412
1124113-55.646881391197945422
1114013-65.2459815101086944412
1104014-55.65610815101086844312
1093914-65.35610815111086844312
1083814-75.35610916111186744311
1073815-65.15691015121076633311
1063715-75.15691114131186633211
1053716-65.15681313151286532211
1043616-75.14581412161286432211
1033617-64.94571610181396432111
1023517-74.8446189191497342111
1013518-64.63351972115107341110
1003418-74.63342162216107241110
993419-64.53332242316107141110
983319-74.43332332316107141010
973320-64.25432232215107140010
3421-44.25432232215107140010
963220-73.9653222211496030010
3119-93.9654212211396030010
953221-63.6874192191285030010
3322-43.6874192191285030010
943121-73.097416215964020010
933122-62.587412212743020010
923022-71.7763918532010000
913023-61.1542515321010000
902923-70.7331313111000000
892924-60.321120111000000
882824-70.21101010000000
872825-60.100000000000
862725-70.000000000000
852726-60.000000000000
842626-70.0000000000
832627-6No00000
822628-50.00
25-81No
Total:2.4%3.83.63.010.72.910.87.34.83.50.91.90.50.30.60.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Colorado vs Pittsburgh+0.8-0.0-0.0-0.8-1.0-1.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs NY Islanders-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Columbus vs Minnesota+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs NY Rangers-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
123-143100
122479-3964
121469-4964
120448-79432
1194510-490371
1184410-586770
1174310-684690
1164311-57612111
1154211-667161601
1144212-5601821020
1134112-64921270300
1124113-538243204000
1114013-627254016000
1104014-5192546271100
1093914-612225039220
1083814-762053511331000
1073815-631552811461000
1063715-71104911106902000
1053716-60743149815030000
1043616-704351769210511000
1033617-602271949281622100
1023517-70119192833273401000
1013518-60121816364758030000
1003418-707150435666140401000
993419-6041202319472106120000
983319-7029012412272718350100
973320-6016001613153128490200
963220-70300101204324761415100
953221-6020510022875818310200
943121-70102801211037195176100
933122-6000150013111616823113000
923022-700030710041110261971000
913023-6000103802692426145100
902923-700101601271627231131000
892924-60000030014922272093100
882824-70000200231323261893100
872825-6001001151523251793100
862725-700000002615232417931000
852726-60000000271623241783100
842626-70000000281624231672000
832627-600001381724231572000
822527-7000139182523145100
812528-6000141121262212410
802428-70001513232720920
792429-6000261627271651
782329-700039223024102
772330-60015142731184
762230-700282233268
752231-6001415323414
742131-7029283922
732132-6015204233
722032-702154340
712033-6193951
701933-7063263
691934-6032770
681834-722078
671835-601881
661735-71585
651736-6694
641737-5991
25-63100
Total:01541194121032253776543322211110