Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 50%
0 points   0 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston vs Philadelphia+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1
Toronto vs Montreal+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim+3.4+3.4+2.9-1.3-1.3-5.5
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.3-0.3-1.0
St. Louis vs NY Rangers+0.4*+0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
Washington vs Montreal-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.3
Buffalo vs Columbus+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1
Nashville vs Ottawa+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Philadelphia vs New Jersey+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.1
Detroit vs Boston+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2+0.0
Tampa Bay vs Florida+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-164In100.0%1008,832*
1255815-9In99.810001,077*
1245816-8In99.8100001,793*
1235716-9In99.91003,146*
1225717-8In99.8100004,899*
1215617-9In99.5100007,779*
1205618-8In99.41000012,307*
1195518-9In98.91000018,814*
1185519-8In98.4990028,205*
1175419-9In97.5991141,620*
1165420-8In96.4981160,888*
1155320-9In94.49721087,571*
1145321-8In91.7962200122,473*
1135221-9In88.194330169,139*
1125121-10In83.292540230,386*
1115122-9In76.8887500307,379*
1105022-10In68.9839800405,583*
1095023-9In59.278121000524,804*
1084923-10In48.4701514100669,588*
1074924-9In37.3621918100840,492*
1064824-10In26.35323222001,038,489*
1054825-9100.0%16.843262740001,265,455*
1044725-10100.09.432293360001,514,543*
1034726-9100.04.523303791001,791,254*
1024626-10100.01.81529411320002,079,849*
1014627-9100.00.59274218400002,388,006*
1004527-1099.90.1523422361002,697,060*
994528-999.80.021840291020002,997,577*
984428-1099.50.0113353314400003,289,619*
974429-998.50.009293518710003,552,289*
964329-1096.1No0523352111310003,783,143*
954330-990.9No03163222177200003,971,328*
944230-1081.3No021127202213510004,110,333*
934231-967.0No0172115231910310004,193,488*
924131-1049.3No0041592124177200004,213,330*
914132-931.9No0210515242314610004,182,191*
904032-1017.9No016291925211141004,081,447*
894033-98.7No003141323261992003,933,252*
883933-103.8No002027172525156103,738,733*
873934-91.5No0010131021272311303,504,214*
863834-100.5No000001514252818613,232,740*
853835-90.2No000000282029261222,949,190*
843735-100.1No00000141327311952,648,089*
833736-90.0No0000002821332792,345,142*
823636-100.0No0000014153134152,045,386*
813637-90.0No000000292739231,762,593*
803537-100.0No000152141321,499,088*
793538-9OutNo00031540411,254,784*
783438-10OutNo0011037511,035,693*
773439-9OutNo00173260843,053*
763339-10OutNo0042769679,273*
753340-9OutNo00022276536,063*
743240-10OutNo0011782418,483*
733241-9OutNo011387322,754*
723141-10OutNo00990245,012*
713142-9OutNo00793183,658*
703042-10OutNo00595135,212*
693043-9OutNo039798,419*
682943-10OutNo029870,662*
672944-9OutNo019949,914*
662844-10OutNo19934,629*
652845-9OutNo19923,755*
642745-10OutNo010016,148*
632746-9OutNo010010,760*
622646-10OutNo01007,109*
612647-9OutNo01004,517*
602648-8OutNo01002,906*
592548-9OutNo1001,809*
582549-8OutNo01001,158*
0-57OutNo1009,006*
Total:50.0%3.3%661312666666666688,339,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupDetroitOttawaMontrealNY RangersBostonNY IslandersFloridaPhiladelphiaCarolinaTampa BayColumbusTorontoBuffaloWashingtonNew Jersey
164820-07.8%667777677676787
1366511-6NoYes
1356411-7No333333
1346210-10No2914141429
1336211-9No20204020
1326414-416.71166171166171166
1316112-93.13163361616369963
1306113-88.8177369931094411312
1296013-96.459695771010425489
1286014-84.2546746797686878
1276015-76.244911786510564668
1265915-89.5665867588677588
1255815-98.67561068566586588
1245816-86.7577768589575678
1235716-97.3665968678586588
1225717-87.5656868678586678
1215617-97.5666868687675678
1205618-87.5666868688686578
1195518-97.3566868687586688
1185519-87.4555868688685688
1175419-97.5666868688685688
1165420-87.6666868688686688
1155320-97.5656858688586688
1145321-87.5665868588685688
1135221-97.6565858688686588
1125121-107.4555858588585588
1115122-97.5555858588585588
1105022-107.4555858588585588
1095023-97.4555859589585598
1084923-107.3555959599595599
1074924-97.2555959599595599
1064824-107.2444949499494499
1054825-97.14441041041010410441010
1044725-107.04441041041010410441010
1034726-96.93331031031010310331010
1024626-106.73331131131111311331111
1014627-96.63331131131111311331111
1004527-106.43331131131111311331111
994528-96.33221131121111211221111
984428-106.13331131131111211331111
974429-96.03331131131111311331111
964329-105.73331131131111311331111
954330-95.43331031031010310331010
944230-104.7333838388383388
934231-93.8222727277272277
924131-102.8222525255252255
914132-91.8111313133131133
904032-101.0111212122121122
894033-90.5000101011010011
883933-100.2000000000000000
873934-90.1000000000000000
863935-80.0000000000000000
853835-90.0000000000000000
843836-80.0000000000000000
833736-90.00000000000000
823737-80.000000000
813536-110.00000000
803739-6No0
0-79No
Total:3.1%1.71.61.65.31.65.21.65.35.31.65.31.61.65.35.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs Philadelphia-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.3+0.3+1.2
St. Louis vs NY Rangers-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Washington vs Montreal+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Buffalo vs Columbus-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs New Jersey-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
129-164100
1286014-81000
1276015-7100
1265915-81000
1255815-910000
1245816-8100000
1235716-91000
1225717-8100000
1215617-9100000
1205618-899000
1195518-999100
1185519-898100
1175419-997111
1165420-896211
1155320-99432010
1145321-89242200
1135221-9886303000
1125121-10838504000
1115122-977117050000
1105022-1069159070000
1095023-95918120100000
1084923-104822150130010000
1074924-93725181170010000
1064824-1026262112111020000
1054825-9172624324210400000
1044725-10923244264306000000
1034726-9519237267509001000
1024626-102131910231080120020000
1014627-9181512171412016110400000
1004527-10051013101515119320601000
994528-902612514183195409020000
984428-100131021117516980131400000
974429-90018071491112120162701000
964329-100050391151216217511031000
954330-900301411210164148161720000
944230-1000200290614791118313510000
934231-90010016039104111671810410000
924131-1000000040141018101120189310000
914132-9000020028044111622189310000
904032-100000100160218818231810410000
894033-900000003010431019231911410000
883933-100000020002131018232013620000
873934-9000001001013918232114720000
863834-100000000001391723221572000
853835-900000000000138172323167200
843735-100000000013917242315610
833736-90000000013101926231341
823636-100000000141222282292
813637-9000000016152729174
803537-10000000292132269
793538-90001415303416
783438-1000029253925
773439-900015194135
763339-100002133846
753340-90000183457
743240-10000052966
733241-90032374
723141-100011881
713142-9011386
703042-1000990
693043-900793
682943-100595
672944-90397
662844-100298
652845-90199
642745-10199
632746-9199
622646-100100
612647-90100
602648-80100
592548-90100
582549-80100
56-57100
552350-90100
0-54100
Total:333343434342424244444333333333