Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances

Beat Chicago 3-1, playoff odds up 5.7 to 33.3%
29 points   13 10-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia 3 Chicago 1 +3.7
+0.1
+0.1
Nashville 4 New Jersey 5 (ot)-0.6
NY Rangers 4 Carolina 2 +0.3
Buffalo 1 Boston 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Pittsburgh vs Detroit-0.2-0.4-0.5*+0.0*-0.1+0.5
Tampa Bay vs Washington+0.2*-0.2*-0.2-0.3*-0.3*-0.1
Vancouver vs Toronto+0.3*-0.0*+0.1*-0.3*-0.3-0.2
Arizona vs Columbus+0.2*+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Nashville vs Philadelphia-4.4*+0.0*-0.1+4.7+5.4+5.3
-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Calgary vs Anaheim*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1+0.3-0.3*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
119-141InYes100373*
118429-5In95.1%95541*
117419-6In83.6876767*
1164110-5In84.686671149*
1154010-6In74.7779140312*
1144011-5In69.9757180498*
1133911-6In63.5699211836*
1123912-5In50.6581427201,386*
1113812-6In39.950153332,248*
1103813-5In30.5401638603,589*
1093713-6In19.93016459005,409*
1083613-7In13.423164713108,239*
1073614-6In7.5161549182011,865*
1063514-7In3.5101348253016,900*
1053515-6100.0%1.6611463160023,642*
1043415-7100.00.538413791031,984*
1033416-6100.00.1163542142042,319*
1023316-799.90.0142845203055,667*
1013317-699.80.00221442750070,398*
1003217-799.4No0114413391087,093*
993218-698.4No01936381420105,011*
983118-796.5No006294021300124,902*
973119-692.4No032238297100144,774*
963019-784.7No02153335132000164,295*
953020-673.4No01102538215100182,710*
942920-758.0No006163528113000197,895*
932921-640.7No003928331961000211,576*
922821-725.2No024193226134100220,784*
912822-613.5No0121125302192000224,425*
902722-76.0No0015172827155100224,089*
892723-62.2No00021022292310300220,983*
882623-70.7No0001414272918610211,265*
872624-60.2No000282030261220199,120*
862524-70.0No000141327311961183,097*
852525-60.0No00017203227112166,023*
842425-70.0No0003132833184146,268*
832426-6OutNo00182235267125,106*
822326-7OutNo000416343412107,554*
812327-6OutNo00021029401989,618*
802227-7OutNo01623432872,736*
792228-6OutNo00317433757,965*
782128-7OutNo0111404844,974*
772129-6OutNo017355734,281*
762029-7OutNo004306525,743*
752030-6OutNo03257318,926*
741930-7OutNo01198013,502*
731931-6OutNo0114859,362*
721831-7OutNo010906,768*
711832-6OutNo08924,577*
701732-7OutNo05952,886*
691733-6OutNo3971,859*
681633-7OutNo2981,170*
671634-6OutNo199734*
661635-5OutNo199457*
651535-6OutNo199288*
29-64OutNo100642*
Total:33.3%0.2%013810111099998753,909,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNY RangersMontrealColumbusWashingtonPittsburghBostonTampa BayOttawaNew JerseyFloridaTorontoDetroitCarolinaNY IslandersBuffalo
141560-03.1%63915156667644543
124445-7NoYes
123446-6No5050
122447-5NoYes
121437-6No6733
120438-57.788158311588
119439-46.777171310101773333
118429-52.47751520277107722
117419-61.59182510371314411
1164110-52.7711123174639215531
1154010-62.91111315174439442552
1144011-54.210015191444510432441
1133911-62.611118161833410332331
1123912-53.513119171633210222431
1113812-62.41501918172329231431
1103813-53.11612217172227222431
1093713-62.52112418152228111321
1083613-72.72212617152216111220
1073614-62.62212816151116111220
1063514-72.62422816151116111210
1053515-62.52532916141115110210
1043415-72.62552915131115110110
1033416-62.32582814131114110110
1023316-72.424102714122114110110
1013317-62.424142612112214110110
1003217-72.423182411103213110110
993218-62.4232123983223110110
3319-42.4232123983223110110
983118-72.2232322873322110100
3017-92.1232422873322110100
973119-62.1222520763322110000
3018-82.0222520763322110000
3220-42.2222520763222110000
963019-72.0222419553221110000
2918-92.0212418543211110000
953020-61.7202216442211110000
3121-41.6202216432211110000
942920-71.3171813322111100000
2819-91.3161713322111100000
932921-60.912129211100000000
922821-70.6876111000000000
912822-60.3443100000000000
902722-70.1222000000000000
892723-60.0111000000000000
882623-70.00000000000000
872624-60.000000000000
862625-50.000000000
852424-8No000
842425-7No0
29-83No
Total:0.8%8.67.57.92.82.40.90.70.50.80.40.30.10.20.20.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia 3 Chicago 1 -0.6
Nashville 4 New Jersey 5 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Pittsburgh vs Detroit+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Nashville vs Philadelphia+0.7-0.0+0.0-0.7-0.8-0.8

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
119-141100
118429-5955
117419-684367
1164110-5851671
1154010-67529140
1144011-57057180
1133911-66469211
1123912-55171302720
1113812-6401014032003
1103813-53110160370060
1093713-620101604410900
1083613-7139151451113010
1073614-6881414521180020
1063514-7361114243250030
1053515-62492366403100600
1043415-71262288603710910
1033416-6013218970401114020
1023316-7012210980413120030
1013317-6001158813653270500
1003217-7001256129750330910
993218-600003422097037114020
983118-70000122111090382210300
973119-600001158913442907100
963019-70000012571266350132000
953020-6000010352178371215100
942920-7000001329733228113000
932921-6000001246244321971000
922821-700001131453027134100
912822-60001016523302292000
902722-7000000231326281871000
892723-6000000261728261551000
882623-7000001292028231241000
872624-6000003112227221141000
862524-7000001412232620103100
852525-600001514232618931000
842425-7000261624251772000
832426-600028172624156100
822326-70013920272312410
812327-60001412232721920
802227-7000261626271661
792228-600039213025112
782128-70014142731184
772129-600282134279
762029-701415323414
752030-60029274022
741930-7015204133
731931-6003144043
721831-700193753
711832-6063163
701732-7032671
691733-621979
681633-711485
671634-611288
661635-5793
651535-6694
641536-5595
631436-6199
29-62100
Total:0000111042208210198876554433221