Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.5 to 31.4%
18 points   8 9-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)-0.5
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 -0.5
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)-0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs NY Rangers+0.9+0.2+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.5
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Philadelphia 4 Columbus 2 +2.8
+0.1
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 +1.2
+0.0
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 +0.4
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 -0.3
Boston 0 Montreal 2 +0.2
Colorado 4 Carolina 3 +0.2
Nashville 3 Florida 2 (so)*+0.1
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 *-0.1
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-144InYes10022,284*
125506-7In90.0%901010*
123-124In98.910087*
122498-6In99.1991107*
121499-5In97.19811279*
120489-6In95.59712510*
1194810-5In91.494151,068*
1184710-6In90.493152,078*
1174610-7In85.6903803,862*
1164611-6In79.68641006,983*
1154511-7In73.082513012,494*
1144512-6In64.576716021,592*
1134412-7In55.070920036,940*
1124413-6In44.2621226159,898*
1114313-7In34.05414301096,538*
1104314-6In24.145173520151,672*
1094214-7In15.636194140231,905*
1084215-6In9.0282146500348,625*
1074115-7In4.6202151800511,297*
1064116-6In2.01421541100731,469*
1054016-7In0.78195616001,026,759*
1044017-6100.0%0.251756211001,409,976*
1033917-7100.00.031455272001,890,912*
1023817-8100.00.0111523330002,487,529*
1013818-7100.00.008473950003,207,700*
1003718-899.90.0054145810004,054,595*
993719-799.8No03344911200005,016,854*
983619-899.2No02275115410006,092,649*
973620-797.7No012151178200007,242,682*
963520-894.3No0115481812510008,447,013*
953521-787.8No0010441717930009,673,629*
943421-877.5No07381320156100010,858,391*
933422-763.9No04319202112300011,959,594*
923322-848.4No02246172519710012,920,294*
913323-733.6No0117312252513300013,706,921*
903223-821.3No011218212920710014,267,044*
893224-712.4No008041629281220014,572,631*
883124-86.7No005021025322050014,618,894*
873125-73.4No0030151933281010014,391,058*
863025-81.6No010031330341730013,917,479*
853026-70.7No01001724372560013,205,309*
842926-80.3No000004173532101012,294,675*
832927-70.1No000002113138162011,256,398*
822827-80.0No0000162542234010,109,551*
812828-70.0No000003184131608,918,887*
802728-80.0No0000021238371117,724,316*
792729-70.0No0001732431616,571,106*
782629-80.0No0000426452225,491,384*
772630-70.0No000219452944,502,700*
762530-80.0No000114433663,624,706*
752531-7OutNo0009394292,862,753*
742431-8OutNo0063347142,221,107*
732432-7OutNo0042751191,694,314*
722332-8OutNo0022152251,266,192*
712333-7OutNo01165131930,807*
702233-8OutNo01124939670,198*
692234-7OutNo0084646475,056*
682134-8OutNo054153329,250*
672135-7OutNo043660223,610*
662035-8OutNo023067149,455*
652036-7OutNo01267398,050*
641936-8OutNo01217863,032*
631937-7OutNo0178339,773*
621938-6OutNo0138724,345*
611838-7OutNo0109014,676*
601839-6OutNo07938,876*
591739-7OutNo05955,139*
581740-6OutNo4962,933*
571640-7OutNo3971,549*
561540-8OutNo199886*
551541-7OutNo199526*
541542-6OutNo298252*
18-53OutNo10022,507*
Total:31.4%0.1%0161545810121212951268,806,620

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghTampa BayNY IslandersMontrealDetroitOttawaTorontoNY RangersBostonWashingtonFloridaNew JerseyCarolinaColumbusBuffalo
144630-04.1%14681012129128115100
129535-5NoYes
128547-250.05050
126516-6No25252525
125506-7No10101030101020
124507-65.35555325521115
123508-51.536104121312109696
122498-65.6247914131016797
121499-54.7441088111391412501
120489-63.5157910911912911700
1194810-53.71389910101113108610
1184710-64.61499991110101010610
1174610-73.2241088101011101086110
1164611-63.82411899101111996100
1154511-73.9341388101010101086100
1144512-64.1341578910109986100
1134412-73.9441777991191076100
1124413-63.8432077881181076100
1114313-73.7532267781171066100
1104314-63.8732566771161065100
1094214-73.7832855661161055100
1084215-63.6923155551151045100
1074115-73.61123444441241035100
1064116-63.51323634441241135100
1054016-73.41423933331231125100
1044017-63.31524022221221125100
1033917-73.21724222221221115100
1023817-83.21824322221211115100
1013818-73.11824322111211115100
1003718-83.11934322111211115100
993719-73.02044222111111015100
983619-82.92054022111111014100
973620-72.8217383311101914100
963520-82.722835331191803100
953521-72.522831331171703000
943421-82.221826331161502000
933422-71.818722221140402000
923322-81.314616220030301000
913323-70.910412110020201000
903223-80.6728110010100000
893224-70.3415000010100000
883124-80.2203000000000000
873125-70.1102000000000000
863025-80.0001000000000000
853026-70.0000000000000000
843027-60.000000000000000
832927-70.000000000000000
822928-60.00000000000000
812828-70.00000000
802829-60.000000
792729-7No00000
782730-6No000
772529-90.000
762530-8No0
18-75No
Total:0.9%7.52.411.81.00.90.40.42.80.32.50.21.10.20.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)+0.1
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs NY Rangers-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia 4 Columbus 2 -0.5
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 -0.1
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 +0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-144100
125506-79010
124507-6100
123508-5991
122498-6991
121499-597111
120489-695212
1194810-591315
1184710-690315
1174610-7864380
1164611-680741000
1154511-77395013000
1144512-665127016000
1134412-755159020000
1124413-6441812025001
1114313-73420140291010
1104314-6242116133112000
1094214-71621172373104000
1084215-69191833952050000
1074115-75161743884080000
1064116-6212156341370110000
1054016-71812828171101510000
1044017-605892021151182101000
1033917-702591222192213202000
1023817-801386202242264030000
1013818-70017215218211180500000
1003718-80015110181216151308110000
993719-70030613161117192101200000
983619-800203817517244123401000
973620-7001014162142591267020000
963520-80010021319231610811151000
953521-7000019051722610143930000
943421-8000060211253101461461000
933422-7000040162418119191241000
923322-80002003210561019191030000
913323-70001011603310162417720000
903223-800010011011710222415610000
893224-70000070004516252313510000
883124-80000050002292026211141000
873125-70000300010412222620930000
863025-80010000161525261772000
853026-700100000281827251451000
842926-800000001311222822103000
832927-70000000151426281871000
822827-8000000028192926133000
812828-700000013122530218100
802728-80000001618302814300
792729-700000311253221710
782629-80000161831281220
772630-70000031227331950
762530-8000001721352791
752531-70003153233142
742431-8000292737214
732432-700152138287
722332-8000315363511
712333-700110324116
702233-8016264423
692234-7003214530
682134-8002154439
672135-701114147
662035-80073756
652036-70053263
641936-80032770
631937-7022276
621938-6011782
611838-711386
601839-601089
591739-70793
581740-60694
571640-7496
561540-8298
551541-7199
541542-6298
18-53100
Total:000111231247223256677776654311