Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances

Lost to Tampa Bay 3-4, playoff odds down 6.9 to 44.1%
10 points   4 4-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 +4.5
+0.2
+0.2
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.4
*+0.0
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.2*+0.0
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.4
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +0.3
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*-0.3
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-154InYes1008,448*
1255411-7In99.3%991142*
1245412-6In99.61000255*
1235312-7In99.6100478*
1225212-8In99.41000852*
1215213-7In99.0100001,575*
1205113-8In98.299002,691*
1195114-7In97.399114,482*
1185014-8In95.798117,632*
1175015-7In93.7972112,133*
1164915-8In90.9962219,463*
1154916-7In87.19433030,431*
1144816-8In81.99244046,107*
1134817-7In75.68965069,819*
1124717-8In67.485870102,327*
1114718-7In58.48011900147,406*
1104618-8In47.773141200208,013*
1094619-7In37.066181600289,454*
1084519-8In26.658222010394,486*
1074419-9In17.648252520525,654*
1064420-8In10.4392930300690,794*
1054320-9In5.3293135400890,335*
1044321-8100.0%2.321324070001,126,150*
1034221-9100.00.8143144101001,399,446*
1024222-8100.00.282946142001,712,052*
1014122-9100.00.0525472030002,055,428*
1004123-8100.00.02204625510002,425,464*
994023-999.90.01154331810002,815,571*
984024-899.70.0011383512300003,215,035*
973924-998.9No07323816510003,604,493*
963925-896.9No0425391910300003,976,019*
953825-992.5No0318372015610004,319,006*
943826-884.3No011333182011410004,612,377*
933726-971.8No01827142218820004,839,642*
923727-855.7No05209212315510005,002,446*
913627-938.9No031451725221130005,082,938*
903628-824.0No01921123271871005,082,498*
893528-913.2No016161727251340005,002,934*
883529-86.5No003031124292081004,844,538*
873429-92.8No002016172927144004,618,520*
863430-81.1No001003112431227104,332,892*
853330-90.4No000001618312913203,997,594*
843331-80.1No000000311263421503,631,431*
833231-90.1No0000016203528913,246,985*
823232-80.0No0000031432351422,854,683*
813132-90.0No000001927392132,470,083*
803133-80.0No00001520402852,106,782*
793033-90.0No0000214393691,765,639*
783034-80.0No000193442131,456,130*
772934-9OutNo00162946191,186,645*
762935-8OutNo003234825945,518*
752835-9OutNo002184832742,170*
742836-8OutNo001134739577,167*
732736-9OutNo00094447438,517*
722737-8OutNo0063954328,982*
712637-9OutNo0043561241,964*
702638-8OutNo033067175,796*
692538-9OutNo022573125,235*
682539-8OutNo01217888,356*
672439-9OutNo1178361,072*
662440-8OutNo0138641,405*
652340-9OutNo0108927,884*
642341-8OutNo089218,097*
632241-9OutNo069411,792*
622242-8OutNo05957,511*
612142-9OutNo3974,670*
602143-8OutNo02982,849*
592043-9OutNo1991,797*
582044-8OutNo1991,006*
571944-9OutNo0100622*
561945-8OutNo0100331*
54-55OutNo100272*
531847-7OutNo29857*
10-52OutNo1008,352*
Total:44.1%0.9%3512145678888863100,087,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghTampa BayDetroitOttawaMontrealWashingtonNY IslandersNew JerseyNY RangersTorontoBostonFloridaColumbusCarolinaBuffalo
154720-05.0%568998887999511
131578-7No6733
1305810-4No6733
129558-9No291414141414
1285610-6No2261161111111111
1275510-72.3721477757997119
1265511-66.63913411912511897
1255411-74.27669118710810666
1245412-63.55510107106891085410
1235312-74.256666981086810821
1225212-85.5667889898877810
1215213-74.556797787108910521
1205113-85.2557979988889710
1195114-74.9567889889888621
1185014-85.0567789998888721
1175015-75.6567779998888720
1164915-85.4567889988887610
1154916-75.1567789998887621
1144816-85.3567779998887710
1134817-75.36677710998887720
1124717-85.36677710998787720
1114718-75.36577710999777720
1104618-85.275777111099777710
1094619-75.1756771110109676710
1084519-85.1856661210109666710
1074419-95.0956661311109665710
1064420-85.01055561411119555710
1054320-94.911455514121110555710
1044321-84.813455515121110444710
1034221-94.714444416131210444710
1024222-84.615344417131211333710
1014122-94.516333318131211333710
1004123-84.417333318141311222810
994023-94.318333318141311222810
984024-84.219333318141311222810
973924-94.119433318131211221710
963925-83.920533317121110111710
953825-93.71964431511109111610
943826-83.3186443131098111510
933726-92.816644311876111410
923727-82.11353328654111310
913627-91.5942226433110200
903628-80.9621113222000100
893528-90.5311112111000100
883529-80.2210001110000000
873530-70.1100000000000000
863430-80.0000000000000000
853431-70.0000000000000000
843331-80.000000000000000
833332-70.000000000000000
823333-60.00000000000000
813132-90.0000000000
803133-8No00000000
792932-11No0000
783236-4No00
10-77No
Total:1.8%8.42.51.81.81.77.15.34.94.31.00.90.93.00.50.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 -1.0
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 -0.0
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 +0.1
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*+0.0
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 -0.0
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 +0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-154100
1255411-7991
1245412-61000
1235312-71000
1225212-89900
1215213-799100
1205113-898100
1195114-797111
1185014-896311
1175015-794421
1164915-891522
1154916-7877330
1144816-8821040400
1134817-77613605000
1124717-86717807000
1114718-7582111090000
1104618-84825140120000
1094619-737291711500000
1084519-8273120219101000
1074419-91831223222102000
1064420-810282452442030000
1054320-95242382573040000
1044321-821921122311607000000
1034221-911317151915909101000
1024222-808121714191311221020000
1014122-9057188201731532030000
1004123-802416418196156405010000
994023-90121411418101311708110000
984024-800110091415914111102300000
973924-900705918515163124501000
963925-8004025182131761279130000
953825-90020121509161191113261000
943826-80010011205111651314611410000
933726-9001008026182121210159310000
923727-80000501317197141716831000
913627-9000200113053141320168310000
903628-800010090211071722179310000
893528-9000100601063101923189410000
883529-8000003000314122023181041000
873429-900002001015132124191041000
863430-8000010000026132224191031000
853330-9000000000261423251882000
843331-800000000027162525166100
833231-9000000013919272413410
823232-800000001412232821920
813132-90000000161627281650
803133-80000002922312491
793033-90000015153031163
783034-800000292535235
772934-9000151835319
762935-8000313323814
752835-90018274221
742836-80005224529
732736-9002164437
722737-8001114245
712637-9000183854
702638-80053361
692538-90032869
682539-8022375
672439-9011980
662440-8011584
652340-9001288
642341-80991
632241-90793
622242-80595
612142-90397
602143-80298
592043-9199
582044-8199
571944-90100
561945-8199
54-55100
531847-7298
10-52100
Total:122323342345233344445555444432