Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances

Beat Toronto 7-4, playoff odds up 4.7 to 12.7%
30 points   12 14-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Toronto 4 Philadelphia 7 +2.5
+0.3
New Jersey 0 Washington 4 -0.3
Pittsburgh 3 Florida 1 +0.2
Carolina 2 NY Rangers 3 (so)-0.2
Montreal 4 Ottawa 1 +0.1
NY Islanders 3 Tampa Bay 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Winnipeg vs Philadelphia-2.7-0.2-0.2+2.8+3.2+3.2
-0.3-0.0+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
NY Rangers vs Carolina-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.5
Boston vs Buffalo-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.5
Chicago vs Toronto+0.3*-0.0-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Detroit vs Colorado-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
130500-0InYes1005,740
120444-2InNo1001
119423-5In66.7%67333*
118424-4In33.31003
117425-3In70.0901010*
116426-2In53.8732726*
115416-3In50.06533262*
114406-4In28.661335119*
113396-5In20.1494442289*
112397-4In17.8457453612*
111387-5In8.234752071,205*
110388-4In4.12495611002,426*
109378-5In2.31895721304,621*
108379-4In0.7128583180108,467*
107369-5In0.2685262502015,061*
1063610-4In0.0464693204026,218*
1053510-5In0.02436123817043,710*
1043410-6In0.013271541311171,026*
1033411-5100.0%No0218164251610111,079*
1023311-6100.0No01101540922200170,144*
1013312-599.8No01513351328500252,389*
1003212-699.4No00210271833910365,452*
993213-598.3No001718213615200514,039*
983113-695.7No000511223622400702,807*
973114-590.5No00362032298100936,410*
963014-681.8No0023172635153001,215,729*
953015-569.6No00111319362361001,536,866*
942915-654.8No00009123331122001,897,911*
932916-539.5No0000672736204002,283,866*
922816-626.0No00431937288102,679,489*
912817-515.4No0021123335152003,070,929*
902717-68.2No001072639225003,432,413*
892718-54.0No001031838309103,746,365*
882618-61.7No0000112343715103,997,802*
872619-50.7No000172741223004,161,442*
862519-60.2No00032041306004,229,702*
852520-50.1No0002133738101004,203,238*
842420-60.0No000183143162004,082,840*
832421-50.0No00042446233003,871,164*
822321-60.0No00021744306003,588,626*
812322-50.0No000111403710103,252,612*
802222-60.0No0006334216202,881,342*
792223-50.0No0003264423302,492,130*
782123-6OutNo002184330602,105,413*
772124-5OutNo0011239371011,741,841*
762024-6OutNo00733421511,406,072*
752025-5OutNo00426452231,112,234*
741925-6OutNo0021944305856,798*
731926-5OutNo011341378644,399*
721826-6OutNo008354313474,733*
711827-5OutNo005294719341,628*
701727-6OutNo03224926239,837*
691728-5OutNo01164835164,023*
681628-6OutNo01114544109,819*
671629-5OutNo007405371,843*
661529-6OutNo04346245,528*
651530-5OutNo02286928,019*
641430-6OutNo01227617,153*
631431-5OutNo01178210,139*
621331-6OutNo0013875,814*
611332-5OutNo09913,314*
601232-6OutNo07931,747*
591233-5OutNo496953*
581234-4OutNo496506*
571134-5OutNo298240*
561135-4OutNo397102*
551035-5OutNo29865*
30-54OutNo1005,795*
Total:12.7%0.0%00001236101418201473169,244,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghNY IslandersTampa BayDetroitTorontoMontrealNY RangersWashingtonFloridaBostonOttawaColumbusNew JerseyCarolinaBuffalo
130500-02.7%110571210152096500
120444-2NoYes
119423-5No6733
118424-4No333333
117425-3No102010203010
116426-23.8812154151915444
115405-5No11816131013116362
114406-44.221288191211145621
113396-52.418111113151113456
112397-42.81101091614131355400
111387-52.1191113171510965400
110388-42.319121416179864400
109378-51.829131616169764400
108379-41.729151617177654300
107369-51.8281617171775533000
1063610-41.728171817176453300
1053510-51.739171817176443300
1043410-61.639191916166442200
1033411-51.64920191616643220000
1023311-61.561020181515633220000
1013312-51.5810211814145322100
1003212-61.41111211713135321100
993213-51.3151121161212532110000
983113-61.320112014101142111000
973114-51.22511171299421110000
963014-61.0289151077311000000
3115-41.12710151077321000000
953015-50.928812855310000000
2914-70.828811755210000000
3116-30.927811855210000000
942915-60.72568534210000000
3016-40.72568534210000000
2814-80.72568534210000000
932916-50.51955322110000000
2815-70.52056322110000000
922816-60.31433211100000000
912817-50.2922111000000000
902717-60.1511100000000000
892718-50.0210000000000000
882618-60.0100000000000000
872619-50.0000000000000000
862519-60.000000000000
852520-50.0000000000000
842420-60.000000000000
832421-50.000000000000
822422-4No0000000
812322-5No000000
802222-6No00
792122-7No00
30-78No
Total:0.2%4.51.52.11.51.11.10.50.20.10.10.10.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto 4 Philadelphia 7 -0.6
Pittsburgh 3 Florida 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Winnipeg vs Philadelphia+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.6
Boston vs Buffalo+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
130500-0100
120444-2100
119423-56733
118424-43367
117425-3702010
116426-2541927
115416-35015332
114406-429333341
113396-52029404042
112397-41827704143
111387-5825614210070
110388-44208142151900
109378-521672372021210
108379-411152312730171010
107369-50653223160223020
1063610-403331432802660400
1053510-5022272811128101700
1043410-601123231322615301001
1033411-5001116123222150151100
1023311-60010101051625902022000
1013312-500005769251312445000
1003212-600002464221622679010
993213-500001252171652412140200
983113-60000140111472016211400
973114-5000306101013192648100
963014-600010361171927815300
953015-500010131031523132271000
942915-60000018111161727143000
932916-5000001506918272382000
922816-600004034152329175100
912817-5000201111152925113000
902717-60001000682430208100
892718-5000100034162928154100
882618-6000000118223124102000
872619-500000104142831185100
862519-600000017213226102000
852520-50000003132832185100
842420-60000017213326102000
832421-5000003132933174000
822321-600001722342591000
812322-50000003143132153000
802222-6000182435237100
792223-50000417333013200
782123-6002102734215100
772124-5001520342810200
762024-600212303417400
752025-50017233625710
741925-60031634321320
731926-50011028362040
721826-601521372880
711827-5002143435131
701727-600192840202
691728-50052241284
681628-60021539368
671629-500110344312
661529-6006284818
651530-5003225125
641430-601165033
631431-51104741
621331-6064350
611332-5044056
601232-6033364
591233-522771
581234-412080
571134-502179
561135-41387
551035-5991
30-54100
Total:000000000111123357891111119753110