Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances

Beat Pittsburgh 5-3, playoff odds up 7.4 to 32.4%
6 points   2 3-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 +4.5
+0.2
+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Edmonton vs Washington+0.4*+0.2*+0.1*-0.2-0.3-0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
San Jose vs Columbus+0.4*-0.0*-0.1*-0.3-0.5-0.4
Calgary vs Carolina+0.3*-0.0*+0.1*-0.2*-0.2-0.3
Detroit vs Pittsburgh+0.2*-0.2*-0.2*-0.3-0.4*-0.1
Boston vs NY Islanders+0.2*-0.2*-0.0*-0.2*-0.3-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
119-156In99.6%100491*
1185215-8In98.2991163*
1175216-7In94.7991243*
1165116-8In92.99721380*
1155016-9In87.29532594*
1145017-8In84.59343890*
1134917-9In80.092531,403*
1124918-8In70.9877502,103*
1114818-9In63.3839803,035*
1104819-8In53.878121004,436*
1094719-9In42.570151416,226*
1084720-8In32.3621917108,515*
1074620-9In22.65422222011,728*
1064621-8In13.543262730015,539*
1054521-9In7.234283350020,488*
1044522-8100.0%3.6252937810026,758*
1034422-9In1.5172941121034,057*
1024423-8100.00.41027431730042,672*
1014323-9100.00.1623442250051,860*
1004324-899.90.03194227810063,236*
994224-999.8No11438321220075,349*
984225-899.2No010323617510088,501*
974125-998.0No062536219200101,562*
964126-894.9No04193524144100115,386*
954026-988.9No021331232092000128,679*
944027-878.4No0182520241551000141,278*
933927-963.5No0519152522113100152,685*
923827-1045.7No0313921261882000162,225*
913828-929.1No0184152625145100170,005*
903728-1016.1No0152921272211310176,009*
893729-97.7No00214142527187200177,671*
883629-103.3No00102819282513410179,063*
873630-91.2No00101312242921820174,797*
863530-100.4No0000161728281540169,464*
853531-90.1No0000031124312281163,126*
843431-100.0No000016173029142152,935*
833432-90.0No00003112634215141,301*
823332-100.0No000162135298128,797*
813333-90.0No0000314333613116,049*
803233-10OutNo0019294120102,170*
793234-9OutNo01523432789,488*
783134-10OutNo00317443676,494*
773135-9OutNo00212424564,225*
763035-10OutNo018385353,637*
753036-9OutNo005336143,721*
742936-10OutNo03286835,403*
732937-9OutNo02237528,118*
722938-8OutNo01198021,992*
712838-9OutNo01158516,869*
702839-8OutNo0118812,763*
692739-9OutNo08929,550*
682740-8OutNo06946,991*
672640-9OutNo05955,102*
662540-10OutNo04963,630*
652541-9OutNo2982,507*
642441-10OutNo2981,782*
632442-9OutNo2981,178*
622443-8OutNo0100818*
612343-9OutNo0100528*
602344-8OutNo199330*
592244-9OutNo0100202*
582245-8OutNo199130*
6-57OutNo100493*
Total:32.4%0.6%23795677889101093,587,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonTampa BayOttawaMontrealDetroitPittsburghColumbusNY IslandersNew JerseyNY RangersTorontoBostonFloridaCarolinaBuffalo
156750-05.1%8679568871275623
129579-9NoYes
1265712-6No333333
1255713-5No5050
1245714-4No333333
1235614-5No141414291414
1225615-4No126121818612612
1215313-9No1414149141455555
1205314-81.971176776119644474
1195214-97.151295169147869142
1185215-86.18277698139757642
1175216-74.1756569978769772
1165116-84.2667541088121057662
1155016-95.67566599118965662
1145017-85.7856761010910864632
1134917-95.7106667107810956452
1124918-85.896556119910956552
1114818-95.29555610101011865451
1104819-84.99556510101010855551
1094719-94.510555510101010955452
1084720-84.711555511101010955451
1074620-94.911445412111011845451
1064621-84.512444412111211844441
1054521-94.413444412121111944341
1044522-84.514444412121211933341
1034422-94.715333313121311933341
1024423-84.316333313131312933241
1014323-94.316333314131312922241
1004324-84.317333314131312922240
994224-94.017333314131312922240
984225-84.017443313131312922240
974125-93.817444313121211822140
964126-83.516554412121110722140
954026-93.31555441111109722130
4127-73.41555541111119622130
944027-82.91355449998521120
933927-92.41155437776411120
923928-81.6844335554311110
913828-91.1532223332211010
903829-80.6311112221100000
893729-90.3111101111000000
883730-80.1100000000000000
873630-90.0000000000000000
863631-80.000000000000000
853632-70.0000000000000
843532-80.000000000000
833331-110.000000000
823433-8No0
813434-7No0
6-80No
Total:1.3%5.41.71.71.51.34.03.93.83.42.50.70.70.61.20.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 -1.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose vs Columbus-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Pittsburgh-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
122-156100
1215414-7955
1205314-8100
1195214-9991
1185215-89811
1175216-79541
1165116-893421
1155016-987832
1145017-884943
1134917-9801253
1124918-871177050
1114818-963209080
1104819-8542412010000
1094719-9422815013001
1084720-83230181161010
1074620-92331202201120
1064621-81330234233130000
1054521-97272262552050000
1044522-8422209249408001000
1034422-921517112113701100100
1024423-80101314161611015113000
1014323-9058151018141183105000
1004324-80351451816319630801000
994224-912122141661710601112000
984225-801919139121310015250100
974125-90060591271514117480200
964126-8004025123131541671314100
954026-90020121019147121118292000
944027-80010170510107131951561000
933927-900005025113121610201241000
923827-1000002012101891221191031000
913828-9000101704412162319931000
903728-10001004021891924181031000
893729-90000201043112124191041000
883629-10000100214122024191141000
873630-90001001015122024201151000
863530-1000000015122024201141000
853531-900000001513212520114100
843431-1000000026142225199300
833432-90000002716252517710
823332-1000001381927251340
813333-90000141223292181
803233-1000026172928153
793234-90003102433236
783134-100001618333111
773135-9000312293718
763035-100017244126
753036-9004194236
742936-10002134045
732937-900193555
722938-800063163
712838-9032671
702839-8022177
692739-9011683
682740-811387
672640-901090
662540-100793
652541-90595
642441-100496
632442-9397
622443-8199
612343-9199
602344-8199
592244-90100
582245-8199
6-57100
Total:111212222232324345555555555554