Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances

Plays at Arizona 9:00 PM, playoff odds down 0.7 to 20.7%
13 points   6 7-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 -0.3
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)*-0.2
*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Philadelphia-3.0*+0.2*+0.1+3.5+4.0+3.9
-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0*-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
St. Louis vs Carolina+0.4*+0.0*-0.0*-0.2-0.4-0.4
Columbus vs Dallas-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.1*+0.0+0.4
Toronto vs Vegas-0.2-0.2*-0.0*+0.2*+0.1+0.3
Ottawa vs New Jersey+0.2*-0.1*+0.1*-0.2-0.3-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
118-149In99.7%100364*
1174913-6In90.0901020*
1164813-7In88.7944253*
1154814-6In85.397368*
1144714-7In73.88983126*
1134715-6In67.385114211*
1124615-7In64.084115347*
1114515-8In50.4791650585*
1104516-7In43.072199946*
1094416-8In33.466221101,436*
1084417-7In23.658271512,186*
1074317-8In14.1463220103,346*
1064318-7In8.9393623205,001*
1054218-8In4.3283930307,081*
1044118-9In1.72139355010,023*
1034119-8In0.713393981013,667*
1024019-9In0.283643121018,755*
1014020-8100.0%0.0431451730025,052*
1003920-9100.00.0225452350032,909*
993921-899.90.01194329810042,201*
983821-999.7No01438341230053,510*
973822-899.0No093237165100065,741*
963722-997.2No052538191020080,266*
953723-893.0No0318362016610096,596*
943623-985.1No212311921113000113,187*
933624-872.5No172515241872000131,011*
923524-956.3No0418102325145100148,792*
913525-838.9No02126192721102000165,988*
903425-923.6No0173122527176100181,945*
893426-812.4No00417192824123000196,184*
883326-95.7No00203122529207200206,677*
873327-82.3No00101618292614410215,140*
863227-90.8No0000311243021810220,297*
853228-80.3No0000161729281440221,648*
843128-90.1No0000031125322271218,779*
833129-80.0No00016183229122212,667*
823029-90.0No0003122834194203,225*
813030-80.0No000172236277190,759*
802930-9OutNo000416353411176,282*
792931-8OutNo000210304017158,980*
782831-9OutNo0016254325142,154*
772832-8OutNo0004194433125,746*
762732-9OutNo002144341107,104*
752733-8OutNo0019395090,897*
742633-9OutNo006355975,888*
732634-8OutNo004306662,375*
722534-9OutNo002247350,069*
712535-8OutNo01207939,560*
702435-9OutNo01158430,686*
692436-8OutNo00128823,549*
682336-9OutNo099117,716*
672337-8OutNo069313,011*
662237-9OutNo05959,349*
652238-8OutNo004966,762*
642239-7OutNo03974,614*
632139-8OutNo2983,095*
622039-9OutNo1992,149*
612040-8OutNo1991,405*
601940-9OutNo0100921*
591941-8OutNo100593*
581942-7OutNo0100355*
13-57OutNo100907*
Total:20.7%0.1%02473567910111213124,230,956

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayNY IslandersBostonTorontoMontrealPittsburghNew JerseyWashingtonBuffaloColumbusCarolinaFloridaNY RangersOttawaDetroit
149680-03.0%458979887898343
1225110-7NoYes
1215010-8NoYes
1205011-7No333333
1195012-6No141414291414
1184912-77.1771472177217
1174913-615.0510105351010555
1164813-79.494861113989842442
1154814-64.41676712131066107141
1144714-71.62108810106116661063
1134715-63.356387101197896471
1124615-72.95654101113109764541
1114515-82.4376610109969104551
1104516-73.84956899128874452
1094416-82.739678911107875441
1084417-72.941067811997975531
1074317-82.4496671211116885421
1064318-72.74116671112116784431
1054218-82.34125661312116773431
1044118-92.53134661312115883421
1034119-82.53144551413135883421
1024019-92.43154451414134882421
1014020-82.33164441514134882410
1003920-92.13183331514143982410
993921-82.23183331515132981410
983821-92.24193331515142881410
973822-82.15203331514132881410
3721-102.15204331514132881410
963722-92.06194431413131871400
3823-72.06204431414131871400
953723-81.87194431312111771300
3622-101.97194431312111771300
943623-91.68175431110101660300
3724-71.89175431110101660300
933624-81.49155439881540200
3523-101.49155439981540200
923524-91.18114426661330200
3625-71.08124427661330200
913525-80.7683324440220100
903425-90.4452212220110100
893426-80.2231111110110000
883427-70.1110001100000000
873327-80.100000000000000
863328-70.000000000000000
853228-80.00000000000000
843128-90.000000000000
833129-8No000000000
823130-7No00000
812929-10No0
13-80No
Total:0.4%1.94.01.11.00.82.72.62.40.41.51.40.20.70.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Philadelphia+0.7-0.0-0.0-0.8-0.9-0.9
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Rangers vs Montreal+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0
St. Louis vs Carolina-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
119-149100
1184912-7937
1174913-69010
1164813-789642
1154814-685123
1144714-7741583
1134715-66718114
1124615-764201150
1114515-850281650
1104516-743291909
1094416-8333322111000
1084417-7243425213111
1074317-81432293172110
1064318-793030617422000
1054218-84242910207403000
1044118-921926131810605000
1034119-811221181414100710100
1024019-908152010171411021100
1014020-8041021618183124203000
1003920-902519317206137404000
993921-8013161121910111170711000
983821-901120815158141111023000
973822-8008041018415153114501000
963722-90050251821317611891200
953723-800312150915118121336100
943623-9020111051015515147114100
933624-8010070261621312131593100
923524-90004012150107171715831000
913525-80002011106316131916931000
903425-90010070311271621181041000
893426-8000000401072918221911510000
883326-900002000313101823201252000
873327-80001001014101823211362000
863227-900000014101824211362000
853228-8000000014101924211351000
843128-900000001411202521124100
833129-8000000151222262010300
823029-9000002615242618820
813030-800000281827251440
802930-900131123292291
792931-800016162829153
782831-90002102433246
772832-8001518333112
762732-900312303818
752733-800017244126
742633-90004184235
732634-8002134045
722534-90183655
712535-80053163
702435-90032671
692436-8022177
682336-9011683
672337-8011287
662237-90991
652238-800793
642239-70595
632139-80396
622039-9298
612040-80298
601940-9199
591941-8100
581942-7199
571842-80100
561843-7199
13-55100
Total:0001011211231223233445556677777