Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.6 to 35.2%
6 points   2 3-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 +4.5
+0.2
+0.2
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.4
*+0.0
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.4
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +0.3
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*-0.3
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-156In100.0%1008,517*
1225413-8In98.41000516*
1215313-9In99.3100882*
1205314-8In97.8100001,602*
1195315-7In97.099102,600*
1185215-8In94.899104,441*
1175216-7In92.998117,267*
1165116-8In90.0972111,411*
1155016-9In85.5963118,319*
1145017-8In80.19352028,289*
1134917-9In73.79163043,015*
1124918-8In65.98794063,346*
1114818-9In56.4821260092,224*
1104819-8In46.77615900131,686*
1094719-9In35.969191200185,769*
1084720-8In25.860231610256,575*
1074620-9In17.351272020346,928*
1064621-8In10.1413125300461,926*
1054521-9In5.3323330400604,554*
1044522-8100.0%2.32335357100779,662*
1034422-9100.00.815343910100985,420*
1024423-8100.00.293142152001,226,390*
1014323-9100.00.1527442040001,501,048*
1004324-899.90.0322432671001,808,001*
994224-999.80.011639311020002,138,515*
984225-899.40.0011343515410002,490,066*
974125-998.3No07283619720002,855,494*
964126-895.7No0521362212410003,219,728*
954026-990.3No0315332218820003,573,618*
944027-880.8No011028192314510003,901,824*
933927-967.0No016211424201030004,194,071*
923928-850.2No03159222516610004,437,744*
913828-933.5No021051726231241004,624,995*
903728-1019.7No016210232720820004,742,017*
893729-910.1No003151627261551004,789,639*
883629-104.5No0020210222922102004,759,682*
873630-91.8No001015152728175104,654,987*
863530-100.7No000002922312410204,492,069*
853531-90.2No000001515293016404,261,636*
843431-100.1No0000029243324713,981,337*
833432-90.0No00000151733311213,660,925*
823332-100.0No0000021129361933,319,955*
813333-90.0No00001723382652,960,851*
803233-100.0No00000417373392,606,902*
793234-90.0No00002113440142,254,185*
783134-10OutNo00172944191,922,075*
773135-9OutNo00042346261,614,014*
763035-10OutNo0021846341,333,392*
753036-9OutNo0011345411,088,311*
742936-10OutNo00194149870,294*
732937-9OutNo00063757686,785*
722938-8OutNo0043263534,984*
712838-9OutNo0022870407,755*
702839-8OutNo022376307,700*
692739-9OutNo011980228,027*
682740-8OutNo011585166,512*
672640-9OutNo001288119,742*
662641-8OutNo0099184,214*
652541-9OutNo079358,617*
642542-8OutNo059540,332*
632442-9OutNo049627,073*
622443-8OutNo39717,915*
612343-9OutNo029811,643*
602344-8OutNo1997,441*
592244-9OutNo1994,702*
582245-8OutNo1993,007*
572145-9OutNo1991,749*
562146-8OutNo01001,070*
552046-9OutNo0100615*
6-54OutNo1008,763*
Total:35.2%0.6%24810567889998596,037,360

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayOttawaWashingtonDetroitMontrealNY IslandersPittsburghColumbusNew JerseyNY RangersTorontoFloridaBostonCarolinaBuffalo
156750-04.9%668778888887721
1306112-2No502525
1295810-7No141414142914
1285811-6No171717171717
1275711-7No134813138817134
1265712-65.4113145535141488353
1255612-75.3789789731281544
1245613-64.95796961288107462
1235513-74.55589671389676711
1225413-85.26695710889788431
1215313-94.45797879710887621
1205314-85.95676789991067721
1195315-75.05686689991077721
1185215-84.85696710989777621
1175216-74.8668669999877621
1165116-84.85786699910876621
1155016-95.0569769999977621
1145017-84.9569669999876621
1134917-94.9569669999876621
1124918-85.05696610999866621
1114818-94.95696610999966621
1104819-84.956106610101010966521
1094719-94.856106610101010965521
1084720-84.855116611101010965521
1074620-94.855115511111010955521
1064621-84.745125512111010955421
1054521-94.645135512121111954420
1044522-84.544144413121111944320
1034422-94.444144414131111943320
1024423-84.334154414131211933320
1014323-94.233163315131212932210
1004324-84.1331633151412121022210
994224-94.0331733151412121022210
984225-83.943173315141212922110
974125-93.854163315131211921110
964126-83.654164414131111921110
954026-93.364154413111010821110
944027-82.9651344111098611110
933927-92.46411449876511110
923928-81.8538337655311010
913828-91.2425224433210000
903829-80.7213113222100000
893729-90.4112111111100000
883730-80.2101001000000000
873630-90.1000000000000000
863631-80.0000000000000000
853531-90.0000000000000000
843532-80.0000000000000000
833432-90.00000000000000
823534-60.000000000000
813333-90.000000000
803334-8No0000000
793335-7No0
6-78No
Total:1.4%2.21.75.51.61.55.04.43.93.73.00.80.70.60.50.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 -1.0
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 -0.0
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 +0.1
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*+0.0
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 -0.0
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 +0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125-156100
1245613-6991
1235513-7100
1225413-89810
1215313-9991
1205314-898200
1195315-797210
1185215-895410
1175216-793511
1165116-890721
1155016-98610301
1145017-880135020
1134917-97417603000
1124918-86621904000
1114818-9562512060000
1104819-8472914180000
1094719-93633181110000
1084720-826342121410100
1074620-9173424417212000
1064621-810312562031030000
1054521-95272492163040000
1044522-822121132010507001000
1034422-91141717171480101001000
1024423-80912191317121131102000
1014323-90581981815215320400000
1004324-80341741717516640601000
994224-90121411316914107010120000
984225-8001110913131013111132401000
974125-900705815515142154701000
964126-80040241521316514712141000
954026-900201212191491111162820000
944027-800100190510126131751351000
933927-90010060261431215101810310000
923928-800003013121891320189310000
913828-900020019054131622178310000
903728-100001006021991923178310000
893729-900000301054122123179310000
883629-10000002000215132223189310000
873630-9000010001026142224189310000
863530-1000000000002614222418931000
853531-900000000000271523241782000
843431-100000000128172424166200
833432-90000000013919262313410
823332-1000000001412222821920
813333-90000000261626281751
803233-10000000039213025102
793234-9000015152831174
783134-10000292334257
773135-90001517333212
763035-10000211303818
753036-90017254226
742936-1000004194334
732937-90002144143
722938-800193852
712838-900063360
702839-80042868
692739-90022474
682740-80011980
672640-9011584
662641-8001188
652541-900991
642542-80694
632442-90595
622443-80397
612343-90298
602344-8298
592244-9199
582245-8199
572145-9199
562146-80100
552046-90100
6-54100
Total:111212232233333345555555555543