New Jersey Devils Playoff Chances

Beat Pittsburgh 5-1, playoff odds up 12.1 to 59.4%
13 points   6 5-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 1 New Jersey 5 +5.6
+0.3
+0.3
NY Islanders 3 Montreal 4 (so)*-0.4
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 -0.3
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Philadelphia+0.3*-0.0*+0.0*-0.2-0.4-0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa vs New Jersey-5.3-0.9-0.9+3.9+4.4+4.5
-0.3*-0.1*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.4
St. Louis vs Carolina+0.5*+0.0*+0.0-0.6-0.6-0.5
Columbus vs Dallas-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.2*+0.0+0.6
Toronto vs Vegas-0.2-0.3*-0.2+0.3*-0.0+0.4
NY Rangers vs Montreal*+0.0-0.3-0.3*-0.2*-0.2+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton-0.1*+0.0*-0.1*+0.2*-0.0+0.2
-0.0-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New Jersey finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-153InYes100374*
1245211-7In97.1%97335*
121-123In98.6100363*
1205013-7In98.09900345*
1194913-8In96.39901560*
1184914-7In93.99810895*
1174814-8In91.697301,364*
1164815-7In86.696312,025*
1154715-8In82.694523,206*
1144716-7In75.991724,608*
1134616-8In69.588936,775*
1124617-7In61.38412409,677*
1114517-8In51.678166013,461*
1104518-7In41.572209018,566*
1094418-8In31.2642511024,449*
1084419-7In22.15530140032,364*
1074319-8In14.04634191041,820*
1064320-7In8.23738232052,222*
1054220-8In4.128412930065,310*
1044221-7In1.820423350079,576*
1034121-8In0.613413870094,910*
1024122-7In0.1838421010111,821*
1014022-8100.0%0.04344515200129,617*
1004023-7100.00.022847203000146,490*
993923-8100.00.012245265100162,812*
983924-799.8No01642319200177,960*
973824-899.4No0113736123100192,545*
963825-798.4No0730391671000204,214*
953725-895.4No04233818124100212,456*
943726-789.6No21736181782000216,724*
933626-879.5No01113115211451000218,699*
923526-965.0No17241123211031000217,780*
913527-848.2No041872026177200210,578*
903427-931.5No02123142625134100201,762*
893428-818.3No0171922282192000190,230*
883328-99.3No00414152727155100176,555*
873329-84.3No00202921292310300160,783*
863229-91.7No00101414272917610144,355*
853230-80.6No0000282130251120128,013*
843130-90.2No0000141427301851110,371*
833131-80.1No000292232259194,617*
823031-90.0No00001415303216378,965*
813032-80.0No000029253523565,452*
802932-90.0No00015193530952,994*
792933-8OutNo0031332371542,533*
782934-7OutNo001827422133,438*
772834-8OutNo001522442925,645*
762734-9OutNo00216433819,850*
752735-8OutNo00111414714,582*
742736-7OutNo017375510,909*
732636-8OutNo00431647,825*
722536-9OutNo0326715,512*
712537-8OutNo0223753,794*
702437-9OutNo116832,663*
692438-8OutNo014861,742*
682338-9OutNo011891,223*
672339-8OutNo0991839*
662340-7OutNo595509*
652240-8OutNo595331*
642140-9OutNo199209*
632141-8OutNo199127*
622142-7OutNo59574*
13-61OutNo100453*
Total:59.4%1.6%410171667777654324,230,956

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the New Jersey finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayNY IslandersBostonTorontoMontrealPittsburghWashingtonBuffaloColumbusCarolinaFloridaNY RangersPhiladelphiaOttawaDetroit
153700-07.4%157812791395103561
1295610-4NoYes
1285611-3No5050
1275410-633.31733171717
1265310-7No131325131325
1255311-65.31652111111151155
1245211-75.739939331714119633
1235111-82.9766612131364774411
1225213-58.1610661411867762342
1215113-64.144671099129864561
1205013-77.56976871088753673
1194913-86.86468810998876552
1184914-76.8468898898876542
1174814-87.65469889118866552
1164815-76.94567991098875653
1154715-86.455788101097875553
1144716-76.75577810998875552
1134616-87.1457799998875642
1124617-76.64678810998865552
1114517-86.656778101098865552
1104518-77.247778101098865542
1094418-86.947778111088865542
1084419-76.648778111188855541
1074319-86.749778121188855531
1064320-76.549678121178855531
1054220-86.5411667131268944431
1044221-76.4412667141369945531
1034121-86.3413556151459935421
1024122-76.1314555161459935521
1014022-86.0316445171549935521
1004023-75.931744417153101025510
993923-85.831833318163101025510
983924-75.631933318162101015510
973824-85.442033318162101015510
963825-75.352033317161101015500
953725-85.0620443161519914400
943726-74.7719443141318814400
933626-84.1817443121117603300
923627-73.28144429815502200
913527-82.37113326613302200
903528-71.5572214402201100
893428-80.9341112201101100
883429-70.5121101101100000
873329-80.2110001100000000
863330-70.1000000000000000
853230-80.00000000000000
843231-70.000000000000
833131-80.0000000000000
823031-90.00000000
813133-6No0000
803235-3No00
13-79No
Total:3.3%3.610.62.82.72.59.28.41.75.35.31.02.72.60.70.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 1 New Jersey 5 -1.1
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 +0.0
NY Islanders 3 Montreal 4 (so)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Philadelphia-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs New Jersey+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.9-0.9
St. Louis vs Carolina-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Columbus vs Dallas+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
NY Rangers vs Montreal+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
125-153100
1245211-7973
1235111-8991
1225213-5100
1215113-6982
1205013-798100
1194913-896301
1184914-794510
1174814-892530
1164815-787931
1154715-8831152
1144716-776167020
1134616-8701990300
1124617-761221204000
1114517-852261606000
1104518-742301918000
1094418-8313324110100
1084419-722332721310000
1074319-8143230416211000
1064320-7829327174202000
1054220-842430101874030000
1044221-7218271517106040000
1034121-811322191414100610000
1024122-70817221017141811100
1014022-8041123618183103202000
1004023-70262231721611630300000
993923-801319113201110960511000
983924-70115091716713111712000
973824-801100512204141529330100
963825-70070272121317697611000
953725-800401319010161271010241000
943726-702011506121741312582000
933626-800100110372121311111262000
923526-901007013201107161512620000
913527-80004011607317121713721000
903427-90002001103113716191583100
893428-8010070108310182117931000
883328-90000410414111922181041000
873329-800002002015122023191141000
863229-90001010015122024191141000
853230-8000000015122024201141000
843130-900000002513212520103100
833131-80000026142325189200
823031-90000002716252516610
813032-800001392028241330
802932-90000141324292081
792933-80027182928143
782934-7003112532226
772834-801619333010
762734-900313303717
752735-80018254025
742736-7014204234
732636-802133945
722536-90193555
712537-80063261
702437-9032770
692438-822276
682338-921881
672339-811386
662340-71189
652240-8892
642140-9496
632242-6298
622142-7793
611941-10298
602043-7397
13-59100
Total:2346245624562434334443333322211