New Jersey Devils Playoff Chances

Lost to Montreal 2-5, playoff odds down 11.8 to 28.4%
30 points   12 8-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Montreal 5 New Jersey 2 -4.5
-0.1
-0.2
Philadelphia 6 Edmonton 5 -0.7
Los Angeles 1 Carolina 3 -0.5
Tampa Bay 1 Vancouver 5 +0.4
Boston 2 Colorado 4 +0.4
NY Islanders 3 St. Louis 2 -0.3
Florida 1 Pittsburgh 5 -0.2
Winnipeg 1 NY Rangers 2 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
New Jersey vs St. Louis+3.4+3.6+3.0-1.3-1.2-5.2
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Buffalo vs Washington+0.5*-0.0*-0.0-0.5-0.6-0.3
Chicago vs NY Rangers+0.2*+0.0*+0.1*-0.2*-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New Jersey finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121-142InYes100754*
120428-6In89.3%934428*
119429-5In93.093757*
118419-6In89.39127112*
1174110-5In82.28677180*
1164010-6In78.3827111411*
1153910-7In68.97310170702*
1143911-6In62.868112011,215*
1133912-5In53.659132522,108*
1123812-6In42.3491632403,568*
1113712-7In32.4401638605,517*
1103713-6In22.63117421018,800*
1093613-7In15.1231645151013,349*
1083614-6In8.2151447213019,673*
1073514-7100.0%4.2912462760028,696*
1063515-6100.01.9510423491040,886*
1053415-7100.00.7373639142056,423*
1043416-699.90.21529422030076,297*
1033316-799.70.003224227600101,288*
1023317-699.30.0011539341010129,972*
1013217-798.40.001933401620164,508*
1003218-696.6No005264223300202,226*
993118-793.5No003194131600244,221*
983119-688.0No00113363811100287,901*
973019-779.8No0018294218200334,700*
963020-668.5No0042143265000377,465*
952920-754.4No00213393410100417,477*
942921-639.4No01731381841000451,684*
932821-725.2No00421382692000479,269*
922822-614.1No001133232165100498,314*
912722-76.8No0006233224113000510,120*
902723-62.7No0003142829187100505,718*
892623-71.0No001720302613400494,818*
882624-60.3No000312253021810473,493*
872524-70.1No00161829281440442,064*
862525-60.0No00031124312281408,109*
852425-70.0No0015173129142365,218*
842426-6OutNo002112634225321,226*
832326-7OutNo00161935309277,005*
822327-6OutNo00313313716235,876*
812227-7OutNo0018264224193,808*
802228-6OutNo004194333157,653*
792128-7OutNo002134143125,352*
782129-6OutNo0019375497,397*
772029-7OutNo005316374,036*
762030-6OutNo003267155,368*
751930-7OutNo02207940,073*
741931-6OutNo01158428,969*
731831-7OutNo00118920,018*
721832-6OutNo089213,910*
711732-7OutNo05959,135*
701733-6OutNo04966,042*
691633-7OutNo2983,898*
681634-6OutNo1992,371*
671534-7OutNo1991,482*
661535-6OutNo0100821*
651435-7OutNo0100545*
63-64OutNo100483*
621337-6OutNo19991*
30-61OutNo100840*
Total:28.4%0.2%0025812131110998768,813,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the New Jersey finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealColumbusNY RangersPittsburghWashingtonBostonOttawaPhiladelphiaTampa BayTorontoDetroitCarolinaFloridaNY IslandersBuffalo
142560-01.5%01111151943114329242
123458-3No333333
122437-6No11222211111111
121427-7No8823831888
120428-67.1711391177711
119429-5No712232524947244
118419-61.81213131931853474
1174110-51.7191423161217223614
1164010-61.211214152021151227161
1153910-72.401314221922122117041
1143911-62.801516201811122116141
1133912-51.901518211811131117130
1123812-62.001818211811101115130
1113712-71.901821211811101114130
1103713-62.01202321181181103120
1093613-72.01222421171171003020
1083614-61.82232520171160003010
1073514-71.74232620161161002010
1063515-61.76242619151150002010
1053415-71.69232518141151002010
1043416-61.713232417131141001010
1033316-71.617222316121141001010
1023317-61.621212114102231101010
1013217-71.62620201392231101000
1003218-61.52920191182221101000
3319-41.62820191182221101000
993118-71.52919191072221101000
3017-91.53019181072221101000
983119-61.5291918962211100000
3018-81.4301917862211100000
3220-41.5291917962211100000
973019-71.2281816752211000000
2918-91.3271816752211000000
963020-61.1251614641111000000
2919-81.0231614641111000000
3121-41.0241614641111000000
952920-70.8191412531100000000
2819-90.8181311431100000000
942921-60.613109320100000000
3022-40.613109320100000000
932821-70.4876210000000000
922822-60.2543110000000000
912722-70.1222100000000000
902723-60.0111000000000000
892623-70.0000000000000000
882624-60.00000000000000
872524-70.000000000
862525-60.0000000
852526-5No000
30-84No
Total:0.5%8.26.66.03.12.10.50.50.50.30.10.10.20.10.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal 5 New Jersey 2 +0.6
Philadelphia 6 Edmonton 5 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
New Jersey vs St. Louis-0.6-0.5-0.5+0.2+0.2+0.8
Buffalo vs Washington-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
121-142100
120428-689444
119429-5937
118419-689227
1174110-582377
1164010-67847111
1153910-769410170
1143911-663611201
1133912-5545132502
1123812-6426160320040
1113712-7327160380060
1103713-62381704200101
1093613-7158160441015010
1083614-6861404511210030
1073514-74511142212700600
1063515-62391374203300910
1053415-712612953039001420
1043416-60141206304110200300
1033316-70021126404010270600
1023317-60011654036213401010
1013217-700002430283103901620
1003218-6000122020420410230300
993118-7000011012530401310600
983119-60000010643035238011100
973019-70000000233027342018200
963020-60000001220183420265000
952920-7000001101043813410100
942921-6000000043292381841000
932821-700000012183372692000
922822-6000001933132175100
912722-700000043203225123100
902723-6000000121125302192000
892623-700000141526281772000
882624-60000171727251561000
872524-7000028192624145100
862525-60000039202622135100
852425-70001310202622124100
842426-6001412222621113100
832326-700015132327198200
822327-60002616262717610
812227-7000292029251230
802228-600141225302071
792128-700016183129132
782129-6003112634215
772029-7000162035309
762030-6000313323715
751930-7018264223
741931-6004204432
731831-7002144242
721832-60193951
711732-7053361
701733-6042868
691633-7022475
681634-6011782
671534-701387
661535-60990
651435-7991
641335-8595
631336-7496
621337-6397
611237-7298
30-60100
Total:000010004110811211210876554433221