Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 6.5%
2 points   0 6-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.3
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 -3.4
-0.1
-0.1
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*-0.2
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.2
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
120-150InYes10027,511*
1195512-7In96.4%96428*
1185513-6In97.199168*
1175312-9In93.0991115*
1165313-8In94.29712260*
1155314-7In89.49532417*
1145214-8In84.29352804*
1135114-9In77.691551,499*
1125115-8In71.186772,602*
1115015-9In61.58210804,631*
1105016-8In51.677121107,885*
1094916-9In39.9691614013,168*
1084917-8In29.6612018121,518*
1074817-9In20.25224231034,545*
1064818-8In12.24227283054,533*
1054718-9In6.633303340084,101*
1044719-8In2.9243138700127,637*
1034619-9100.0%1.116314210100190,437*
1024620-8100.00.310294514200278,636*
1014520-9100.00.152547203000402,039*
1004521-8100.00.032045256100565,640*
994421-999.90.0115423191000786,104*
984321-1099.6No01137351330001,069,425*
974322-998.7No07303818610001,434,144*
964222-1096.4No0423372111300001,890,678*
954223-991.3No0216342217720002,445,674*
944123-1082.0No011129192213410003,113,695*
934124-968.0No01623152420930003,902,585*
924024-1050.9No004169212516620004,804,209*
914025-933.6No021151626231341005,825,007*
903925-1019.3No017210222720920006,942,063*
893926-99.7No004151526261661008,137,885*
883826-104.3No002029212823113009,396,308*
873827-91.7No0010141426291961010,657,793*
863727-100.6No0000028203026122011,903,742*
853728-90.2No0000014132631195013,101,031*
843628-100.1No0000002720332710114,168,195*
833629-90.0No0000001414303416215,093,251*
823529-100.0No0000028253824315,827,301*
813530-90.0No0000015193832616,327,702*
803430-100.0No00002133540916,586,731*
793431-90.0No00001830471416,591,211*
783331-100.0No0000525511916,335,464*
773332-90.0No0000319532615,818,050*
763232-10OutNo000113533315,101,316*
753233-9OutNo00019504014,183,629*
743133-10OutNo0006474713,107,484*
733134-9OutNo0004425411,934,518*
723034-10OutNo002376010,697,495*
713035-9OutNo00132669,428,761*
702935-10OutNo00127728,194,412*
692936-9OutNo0023777,005,069*
682836-10OutNo0019815,892,608*
672837-9OutNo0015854,877,153*
662737-10OutNo0012883,977,027*
652738-9OutNo0010903,191,473*
642638-10OutNo008922,518,526*
632639-9OutNo06941,954,156*
622539-10OutNo04961,496,352*
612540-9OutNo03971,124,606*
602440-10OutNo0298831,642*
592441-9OutNo0298606,045*
582341-10OutNo199434,462*
572342-9OutNo199305,405*
562242-10OutNo199211,844*
552243-9OutNo0100144,351*
542244-8OutNo010096,204*
532144-9OutNo010063,537*
522145-8OutNo010040,768*
512045-9OutNo010025,936*
502046-8OutNo010016,234*
491946-9OutNo010010,057*
481947-8OutNo01005,938*
471847-9OutNo01003,561*
2-46OutNo10032,029*
Total:6.5%0.0%001212345710152626331,488,920

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghTampa BayDetroitOttawaMontrealWashingtonNY IslandersNew JerseyPhiladelphiaNY RangersTorontoBostonFloridaColumbusBuffalo
150740-02.5%667779887787761
124579-8NoYes
1225610-8No171717171717
1215611-7No11221111221111
1205612-6No8232323888
1195512-7No477117211174714
1185513-61.531277310916364774
1175312-93.5748310810811105339
1165313-83.5579661010811727561
1155314-72.66567667979661160
1145214-81.765667810910866660
1135114-92.7756769987977660
1125115-82.26556710998876760
1115015-92.97566691098776570
1105016-82.475656101097866670
1094916-92.485666101098866670
1084917-82.395556121098855560
1074817-92.394555121198855560
1064818-82.3104555121198955460
1054718-92.31144551311109944460
1044719-82.21344441412109944470
1034619-92.21434441412109933370
1024620-82.21533331512119933370
1014520-92.11633331613119922270
1004521-82.117333316131191022270
994421-92.018333316131191022270
984321-102.01843331613119922270
974322-91.91943331512109922160
964222-101.8195443141198821160
954223-91.7186443131087711150
944123-101.517644311876611140
934023-111.21564439765511130
4124-91.21564439655511130
924024-100.91253326543311120
914025-90.6842224322210010
904026-80.3521112211100010
893926-90.2211101111100000
883927-80.1100001000000000
873827-90.0000000000000000
863828-80.0000000000000000
853728-90.0000000000000000
843729-80.0000000000000000
833629-90.0000000000000000
823630-80.0000000000000
813530-90.0000000000
803531-8No0000000
793532-7No00000
783533-6No00
773332-9No0
2-76No
Total:0.1%1.40.50.30.30.30.90.70.60.50.50.10.10.10.30.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 -0.0
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +0.8
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
120-150100
1195512-7964
1185513-69711
1175312-99361
1165313-894312
1155314-789632
1145214-884952
1135114-978135050
1125115-87115707
1115015-961211008000
1105016-8522512011000
1094916-94029161140000
1084917-8303218117101
1074817-920322122121100
1064818-81230235234102000
1054718-97262372463040000
1044719-8321201124105060000
1034619-911517142014809101000
1024620-8091216151812112112000
1014520-90581792015215310300000
1004521-80341641917516630501000
994421-9012132151791410608110000
984321-1001100101413101410112230000
974322-900705916516142144601000
964222-100040251621416513810130000
954223-9002012131101410101215272000
944123-1000101100510146141661251000
934124-9001006026152121311171041000
924024-100000030121319714181710310000
914025-900002001100531314211810310000
903925-1000010060219717231910410000
893926-9000000401053919231911410000
883826-100000200021410192320125100000
873827-9000010010141119242112510000
863727-10000000000014112024211251000
853728-9000000000001512212521114100
843628-1000000000015132226209300
833629-900000000002615252617710
823529-1000000000281928251330
813530-90000000141224302171
803430-100000016183029132
793431-90000003112634214
783331-1000000162035308
773332-900000314333712
763232-1000019284319
753233-9000015234626
743133-1000003174634
733134-90001124442
723034-1000184150
713035-900053658
702935-1000033165
692936-90022772
682836-100012277
672837-90011882
662737-100001486
652738-9001189
642638-1000991
632639-900693
622539-100595
612540-90496
602440-100397
592441-90298
582341-100199
572342-9199
562242-100199
552243-90100
542244-80100
532144-90100
522145-80100
512045-90100
502046-80100
491946-90100
481947-80100
471847-90100
461848-80100
2-45100
Total:000000010011011112223345679121820