Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances

Lost to Edmonton 3-6, playoff odds down 4.4 to 9.3%
2 points   0 5-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.3
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 +0.1
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 -3.4
-0.1
-0.1
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*-0.2
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.2
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
117-152In99.6%100681*
1165415-6In80.0871315*
1155214-9In89.4944247*
1145215-8In86.4953259*
1135115-9In72.188102104*
1125116-8In70.98965172*
1115016-9In56.18397312*
1105017-8In49.0801280484*
1094917-9In39.2691813788*
1084817-10In28.964211401,251*
1074818-9In18.4542519201,867*
1064819-8In11.5433123302,799*
1054719-9In5.53531304004,456*
1044720-8In2.8253434616,247*
1034620-9In0.817333910109,117*
1024520-10In0.3103043152012,855*
1014521-9100.0%0.1627432040017,798*
1004421-1099.90.0322422671024,423*
994422-999.7No11639311120032,819*
984322-1099.3No011333515410043,172*
974323-998.2No07273620820055,607*
964223-1095.4No0420352213410071,324*
954224-989.3No0214312319820089,392*
944124-1079.0No019261924155100111,037*
934125-964.8No15201525211031000133,851*
924025-1047.3No0313922261872000160,627*
914026-930.3No0185162624145100189,010*
903926-1017.1No015210212721103000218,245*
893927-98.3No00315152527176100248,790*
883827-103.5No00102820282412300279,157*
873828-91.3No00101413252920710307,020*
863728-100.4No0000271929271330333,335*
853729-90.1No00000131225312160356,826*
843629-100.0No0000017193228111376,365*
833630-90.0No00003132934182389,793*
823530-100.0No000182337265395,832*
813531-90.0No000141736348398,504*
803431-10OutNo000212334113395,110*
793432-90.0No00017284618384,213*
783332-10OutNo0004224825368,699*
773333-9OutNo002164933347,922*
763233-10OutNo001124740323,515*
753234-9OutNo0184448295,594*
743134-10OutNo0053955267,023*
733135-9OutNo0033462236,563*
723035-10OutNo0023068206,709*
713036-9OutNo0012574177,966*
702936-10OutNo0012179151,074*
692937-9OutNo001783126,001*
682837-10OutNo01386102,757*
672838-9OutNo0118983,729*
662738-10OutNo089266,375*
652739-9OutNo069352,064*
642639-10OutNo059540,444*
632640-9OutNo49630,470*
622540-10OutNo039722,880*
612541-9OutNo29816,837*
602441-10OutNo19912,125*
592442-9OutNo1998,581*
582342-10OutNo1996,066*
572343-9OutNo1994,100*
562243-10OutNo01002,818*
552244-9OutNo01001,911*
542144-10OutNo01001,245*
2-53OutNo1002,748*
Total:9.3%0.0%0123223468101422238,009,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayOttawaWashingtonDetroitMontrealNY IslandersPittsburghColumbusNew JerseyNY RangersTorontoFloridaPhiladelphiaBostonBuffalo
152750-02.4%4688569108678661
1205411-10NoYes
1195513-7NoYes
1185413-8No17331733
1175313-9No99181891899
1165415-6No207727137777
1155214-94.3422966191126941342
1145215-81.753175835881053512
1135115-92.94106255109167941141
1125116-82.34686679610939881
1115016-91.345145611111012744531
1105017-83.34776411101011874741
1094917-92.736106510111110754651
1084817-102.6351066910911964650
1074818-93.24512451111910944641
1064819-83.144125511101010854741
1054719-92.534134413111110844741
1044720-83.144134413121110844730
1034620-92.933144413121210933630
1024520-102.733153415121111933620
1014521-92.533153315131211932620
1004421-102.433153315131111922620
994422-92.443163315131211922620
984322-102.243163315131211922610
974323-92.354163315121110821610
964324-82.264154414111010821610
4223-102.264154414111010821610
954123-112.0641444131099721510
4224-91.9641444131098721510
944225-81.674124411987611410
4124-101.775124411987611410
934024-111.4659449766411310
4125-91.4649438766411310
924126-81.1537336544311200
4025-101.0537336544311200
913925-110.7425224332210100
4026-90.6324224332210100
904027-80.4213112211100100
893927-90.2111111111100000
883928-80.1001000000000000
873828-90.0000000000000000
863829-80.000000000000000
853830-70.000000000000000
843730-80.000000000000000
833731-70.000000000000
823429-120.0000000
813531-9No0
803936-0No
793331-11No0
2-78No
Total:0.2%0.70.51.40.50.41.31.00.90.90.70.20.10.50.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 -0.0
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +0.8
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
118-152100
1175313-97327
1165415-680713
1155214-989442
1145215-886832
1135115-97216102
1125116-8711865
1115016-9562797
1105017-84931121700
1094917-939301811200
1084817-10293520213100
1074818-91836213171020
1064819-812312651931300
1054719-9529238226240000
1044720-83222212219406001
1034620-911618151813801000100
1024520-1009131814171111321200
1014521-906818919142163104000
1004421-1003517418164176307010
994422-91214214168151060101200
984322-100110091311111410113240100
974323-90070581461513216480200
964223-10004024142131541571314100
954224-900212111914812111728200
944124-10001018051011713185145100
934125-901005025123121510191141000
924025-100003012101891320191031000
914026-90001017044121623189310000
903926-1000100502199192418931000
893927-90000301053112124181041000
883827-100000100214122124191041000
873828-900001001015122124191141000
863728-100000001513212419114100
853729-9000000002613222519103100
843629-100000000026152325188200
833630-90000002717252516610
823530-100000013102028241230
813531-90000141325292071
803431-1000027193027132
793432-9000013122633215
783332-10000172034299
773333-9000314323614
763233-1000029284121
753234-90015224329
743134-100003164338
733135-9001114147
723035-1000173755
713036-90053263
702936-100032770
692937-9022276
682837-10011881
672838-9011486
662738-10001189
652739-90892
642639-100694
632640-90495
622540-100397
612541-9298
602441-10298
592442-9199
582342-10199
572343-9199
562243-100100
552244-9199
542144-100100
532145-90100
2-52100
Total:000000010111111122333445679111416