Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Philadelphia 0-3, playoff odds down 6.4 to 36.1%
2 points   1 3-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -6.1
-0.4
-0.7
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)-0.5
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 +0.1
WednesdayNone

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
87-106InYes100135*
86397-6In94.9%97339*
85398-5InYes10044*
84399-4In97.8981193*
83389-5In95.1982164*
823810-4In96.39820323*
813710-5In91.19631540*
803711-4In86.69441874*
793611-5In80.992621,386*
783511-6In72.687942,159*
773512-5In63.28213503,212*
763412-6In50.47417904,768*
753413-5In37.966221206,939*
743313-6In25.3542718109,808*
733314-5In14.04033252013,012*
723214-6In6.32836333017,018*
713215-5100.0%2.317354170021,968*
703115-6100.00.693047131028,438*
693116-599.90.14235021200034,803*
683016-699.70.01154731500042,288*
673017-599.1No08394111110049,844*
662917-696.9No03264520330057,584*
652918-591.2No1144227981064,266*
642818-679.8No063026181630071,344*
632819-561.7No02171726251120077,042*
622719-640.1No077262623920081,107*
612720-521.4No02217193021820083,624*
602620-69.2No01089253019610084,332*
592621-53.3No000331428301651083,638*
582521-61.0No000116183128133081,463*
572522-50.3No0000292333248176,818*
562422-60.1No0000313303318371,031*
552423-50.0No000016203628864,383*
542323-60.0No0000021231381657,140*
532324-50.0No0001624422749,993*
522224-60.0No000316423942,559*
512225-5OutNo00110385135,341*
502125-6OutNo005326228,436*
492126-5OutNo003257222,852*
482026-6OutNo01198017,918*
472027-5OutNo01138713,885*
461927-6OutNo099110,417*
451928-5OutNo06947,486*
441828-6OutNo04965,390*
431829-5OutNo03973,723*
421729-6OutNo2982,660*
411730-5OutNo1991,736*
401630-6OutNo1991,119*
391631-5OutNo199746*
381531-6OutNo0100460*
371532-5OutNo199271*
2-36OutNo100511*
Total:36.1%1.2%34810566777899111,437,130

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasNew JerseyPhiladelphiaWashingtonNY IslandersSt. LouisColoradoMinnesotaArizonaAnaheimBostonPittsburghNY RangersLos AngelesSan Jose
106520-05.2%18162014121092
91447-1No5050
90415-633.3333333
89427-3NoYes
88428-2No5050
87418-3No2525171788
86397-610.35158108558215335
85398-52.3911169555299147
84399-45.48101712324541110553
83389-54.321114105592241210744
823810-45.031013111135264981022
813710-56.951011107634431011825
803711-44.8481010105447499763
793611-56.14989965465910755
783511-66.45911984455589855
773512-55.95109995555588854
763412-66.359101095554588944
753413-56.1410101085455589755
743313-66.351091095555589744
733314-56.3410111194444498844
723214-66.23111112104444499834
713215-56.431313121133333910833
703115-66.4213141312222221010922
693116-56.22141414132222211111022
683016-66.22151515131111111111011
673017-56.42141515131111111111011
3118-36.52141515131111111111011
662917-65.8214141412222121011911
3018-46.0215151413112111111911
2816-85.9313141412222111010911
652918-55.631313131222222910811
2817-75.53121212102222299822
3019-35.33121212112222299811
642818-64.9410101093332277722
2919-45.34111112103332288722
2717-84.64109983332277622
632819-53.9477763332255422
2920-33.9477763332255422
622719-62.5355442221133211
612720-51.4233221111111111
602721-40.6111110000011000
592621-50.2010000000000000
582622-40.1000000000000000
572522-50.00000000000000
562523-40.0000000000
552423-50.00000000
542424-4No000000
532425-3No000
522426-2No000
2-51No
Total:2.2%1.44.74.84.64.11.11.11.10.90.93.53.43.00.80.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +1.3
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Vegas vs Arizona-0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs San Jose*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.0+0.0*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
87-106100
86397-69533
85398-5100
84399-49811
83389-59532
823810-496220
813710-591531
803711-487741
793611-581116020
783511-6731494
773512-563181305000
763412-650241618000
753413-5382821211000
743313-62529243171110
733314-5142627622222000
723214-6622261024540300
713215-5215201424108060000
703115-618131719141311110100
693116-50371611181831622020000
683016-6012125152071965050000
673017-501719151317121211011100
662917-60030481591518316330300
652918-50101210311199198808100
642818-600050512131313162155100
632819-5000201412512206191351000
622719-60001616151115211572000
612720-500020261161722181041000
602620-6000100171716222114731000
592621-500003015132022181151000
582521-6000010014101722211472100
572522-500000001371521231793100
562422-600000261321241911410
552423-500000015122125211130
542323-600000151323272192
532324-5000016152629185
522224-600002720312811
512225-5000312283620
502125-60016214032
492126-5003143845
482026-60183357
472027-50052768
461927-60022077
451928-5011584
441828-6011189
431829-50792
421729-60595
411730-5298
401630-60298
391631-5298
381531-6199
371532-5199
361432-6199
351433-5199
341333-6298
2-33100
Total:1222222222323242444444444445556