Washington Capitals Playoff Chances

Lost to Pittsburgh 4-5 (ot), playoff odds down 3.4 to 65.2%

6 points 2 0-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)	-0.9		*-0.0		-0.3
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0	+0.1
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4	+0.1
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)					*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Vancouver vs Montreal					+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Vegas vs Arizona					-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Edmonton					-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

89	-110						In		Yes		100														994	*
88		39	9		-	4	In		99.5	%	100	0													570	*
87		38	9		-	5	In		98.9		99	1													988	*
86		38	10		-	4	In		98.3		100	0													1,747	*
85		37	10		-	5	In		97.6		99	1	0												2,996	*
84		37	11		-	4	In		96.5		99	1	0												4,638	*
83		36	11		-	5	In		93.8		98	2	0												7,552	*
82		36	12		-	4	In		90.8		97	3	1												11,080	*
81		35	12		-	5	In		86.3		95	4	1												16,490	*
80		34	12		-	6	In		79.9		92	7	1												23,963	*
79		34	13		-	5	In		71.9		88	9	2	0											33,630	*
78		33	13		-	6	In		61.9		83	13	4	0											45,140	*
77		33	14		-	5	In		49.5		76	18	6	0											60,433	*
76		32	14		-	6	In		37.5		67	23	10	0											78,109	*
75		32	15		-	5	In		25.2		57	28	14	0	0										99,112	*
74		31	15		-	6	In		14.7		45	33	21	1	0										122,559	*
73		31	16		-	5	100.0	%	7.4		33	37	28	2	0		0								147,700	*
72		30	16		-	6	100.0		2.9		22	38	36	4	0		0								173,671	*
71		30	17		-	5	100.0		0.9		13	35	44	8	0		0								198,964	*
70		29	17		-	6	100.0		0.2		6	29	49	14	1	0	0	0							224,408	*
69		29	18		-	5	99.9		0.0		2	21	51	23	3	0	0	0							245,830	*
68		28	18		-	6	99.7		0.0		1	13	46	34	6	0	0	0	0						264,433	*
67		28	19		-	5	98.9		No		0	6	36	43	13	1	1	0	0						277,467	*
66		27	19		-	6	96.5		No		0	2	24	46	21	4	3	0	0	0					285,012	*
65		27	20		-	5	90.3		No		0	1	12	41	27	10	9	1	0	0					285,109	*
64		26	20		-	6	78.3		No			0	5	29	24	20	17	4	0	0	0				280,461	*
63		26	21		-	5	60.2		No			0	1	16	15	28	25	12	3	0	0	0			268,660	*
62		25	21		-	6	38.9		No			0	0	6	6	26	26	24	9	2	0	0	0		252,646	*
61		25	22		-	5	21.0		No				0	2	2	17	18	30	21	8	2	0	0	0	232,245	*
60		24	22		-	6	9.3		No				0	0	0	8	9	25	30	19	6	1	0	0	208,596	*
59		24	23		-	5	3.5		No				0	0	0	3	3	15	29	29	16	4	1	0	184,184	*
58		23	23		-	6	1.1		No				0	0	0	1	1	6	19	31	27	12	2	0	157,951	*
57		23	24		-	5	0.4		No				0	0		0	0	2	10	24	33	22	7	1	133,706	*
56		22	24		-	6	0.2		No				0	0		0	0	0	4	15	30	32	16	3	110,289	*
55		22	25		-	5	0.1		No					0		0		0	1	7	23	36	26	7	88,250	*
54		21	25		-	6	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	3	14	33	36	14	70,128	*
53		21	26		-	5	0.0		No					0		0			0	1	7	26	42	23	54,075	*
52		20	26		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	0	0	4	18	43	34	41,100	*
51		20	27		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	0	1	12	40	46	30,348	*
50		19	27		-	6	Out		No											0	1	7	34	58	21,933	*
49		19	28		-	5	Out		No											0	0	4	29	67	15,494	*
48		18	28		-	6	Out		No												0	2	21	77	10,757	*
47		18	29		-	5	Out		No											0		1	15	84	7,328	*
46		17	29		-	6	Out		No													1	12	88	4,671	*
45		17	30		-	5	Out		No													0	8	91	3,201	*
44		16	30		-	6	Out		No													0	6	94	1,942	*
43		16	31		-	5	Out		No													0	4	96	1,138	*
42		16	32		-	4	Out		No														3	97	756	*
41		15	32		-	5	Out		No														2	98	421	*
40		14	32		-	6	Out		No														0	100	236	*
6	-39						Out		No															100	697	*

Total:							65.2	%	4.9	%	10	10	17	15	7	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	2	4,793,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Vegas	Colorado	Philadelphia	New Jersey	Minnesota	NY Islanders	Arizona	St. Louis	NY Rangers	Boston	Anaheim	San Jose	Pittsburgh	Buffalo	Los Angeles

110		52	0		-	0	8.1	%		0	14	15		17	0		15	13	0	0	12	13
98		45	5		-	2	No					Yes
95		43	6		-	3	No				50					50
94		43	7		-	2	No		8		17		8	17			17			17	8		8
93		42	7		-	3	4.5			5	18	5	5	5		5	9	9		5	14	14	9
92		41	7		-	4	5.7			6	11	15	6	11			13	19	4		13	2
91		40	7		-	5	4.2		4	3	11	13	2	16	2	2	9	11	2	4	14	5	1
90		40	8		-	4	7.3		1	1	7	15	1	10	3	4	12	15	4	4	12	9	2
89		39	8		-	5	8.4		1	3	13	10	2	10	4	5	13	11	5	2	10	8	2
88		39	9		-	4	6.8		2	2	14	9	3	11	4	2	10	9	3	4	11	11	3
87		38	9		-	5	6.8		2	4	10	10	4	12	4	3	10	10	5	3	12	9	3
86		38	10		-	4	8.9		3	3	10	11	4	12	4	4	10	12	3	4	10	9	3
85		37	10		-	5	7.6		3	3	12	11	4	11	4	4	9	10	5	3	9	10	3
84		37	11		-	4	8.4		3	4	11	10	4	10	4	4	10	10	4	4	9	9	4
83		36	11		-	5	7.7		3	4	10	11	4	10	5	4	9	10	4	4	9	9	4
82		36	12		-	4	7.9		3	4	10	10	4	10	4	5	9	9	4	4	9	9	4
81		35	12		-	5	8.0		4	4	10	10	5	10	5	5	9	9	5	4	8	8	4
80		34	12		-	6	7.8		4	4	9	10	5	10	5	5	9	9	5	5	8	8	4
79		34	13		-	5	7.3		4	5	10	10	5	10	5	5	9	9	5	5	8	8	4
78		33	13		-	6	7.6		4	5	10	9	5	10	5	5	8	8	5	5	8	8	5
77		33	14		-	5	7.6		4	5	10	10	5	9	5	5	8	8	5	5	8	7	5
76		32	14		-	6	7.6		4	5	10	10	5	10	5	5	8	8	5	5	8	7	4
75		32	15		-	5	7.4		4	5	10	10	5	10	5	5	8	8	5	5	7	7	4
74		31	15		-	6	7.4		4	5	11	11	5	11	5	5	8	8	4	4	8	7	4
73		31	16		-	5	7.1		4	4	12	12	4	11	4	4	9	9	4	4	8	7	3
72		30	16		-	6	7.0		3	4	14	13	4	12	4	4	9	9	3	3	8	8	3
71		30	17		-	5	6.9		3	3	15	15	3	13	3	3	10	10	3	2	8	8	2
70		29	17		-	6	6.8		2	2	16	16	2	14	2	2	10	10	2	2	9	8	2
69		29	18		-	5	6.6		2	2	17	17	2	15	2	2	11	11	1	1	9	9	1
68		28	18		-	6	6.2		2	2	18	18	1	15	1	1	11	11	1	1	9	9	1
67		28	19		-	5	6.1		2	2	18	18	1	15	1	1	11	11	1	1	9	9	1
		29	20		-	3	6.2		2	2	17	17	1	15	1	1	11	11	1	1	9	9	1
66		27	19		-	6	5.8		3	2	17	17	2	14	1	1	10	10	1	1	9	8	1
		26	18		-	8	5.7		3	3	17	16	2	14	1	1	10	10	1	1	8	8	1
65		27	20		-	5	5.3		4	3	15	15	3	12	2	1	9	9	1	1	7	7	1
64		26	20		-	6	4.5		6	4	13	12	3	10	2	2	7	6	1	1	5	5	1
63		26	21		-	5	3.5		6	4	9	9	3	7	2	2	4	4	1	1	3	3	1
62		25	21		-	6	2.2		5	3	6	6	2	4	1	1	2	2	1	1	2	2	1
61		25	22		-	5	1.2		3	2	4	4	1	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0
60		25	23		-	4	0.5		1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
59		24	23		-	5	0.2		0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
58		24	24		-	4	0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
57		23	24		-	5	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
56		23	25		-	4	0.0		0	0	0	0		0		0	0	0			0	0
55		22	25		-	5	0.0			0	0	0	0	0			0	0			0	0
54		22	26		-	4	No				0	0		0			0	0			0	0
53		22	27		-	3	No				0	0		0			0	0			0	0
52		20	26		-	6	No				0	0					0				0
51		20	27		-	5	No										0
6	-50						No

Total:							4.2	%	2.8	2.4	10.0	9.9	2.1	8.4	1.7	1.7	6.1	6.1	1.4	1.4	5.2	5.0	1.2

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)	+0.2

Wednesday	None

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

89	-110						100
88		39	9		-	4	99	0	0
87		38	9		-	5	99	0	1
86		38	10		-	4	98	1	0
85		37	10		-	5	98	2	1		0
84		37	11		-	4	96	2	1		0
83		36	11		-	5	94	4	2		0
82		36	12		-	4	91	6	3	0	1
81		35	12		-	5	86	8	4		1
80		34	12		-	6	80	12	7	0	1
79		34	13		-	5	72	16	9	0	2	0	0		0
78		33	13		-	6	62	22	12	0	4	0	0		0
77		33	14		-	5	50	27	17	1	6	0	0		0
76		32	14		-	6	37	30	21	2	9	0	0		0
75		32	15		-	5	25	32	25	3	13	1	0	0	0				0
74		31	15		-	6	15	31	27	6	18	2	1		1	0	0		0
73		31	16		-	5	7	26	26	11	21	5	2	0	2	0	0		0				0
72		30	16		-	6	3	19	22	16	22	9	5	0	4	0	0		0				0
71		30	17		-	5	1	12	16	19	19	14	10	1	7	0	0	0	0				0
70		29	17		-	6	0	6	9	20	13	18	16	2	12	2	1	0	1	0	0		0	0
69		29	18		-	5	0	2	4	17	6	19	19	6	16	4	3	0	3	0	0		0	0
68		28	18		-	6	0	1	1	12	2	14	18	12	17	9	7	0	6	0	0		0	0	0
67		28	19		-	5		0	0	6	0	7	12	17	12	15	14	2	11	1	1	0	1	0	0
66		27	19		-	6		0	0	2	0	3	5	16	6	16	19	6	16	5	3	0	3	0	0	0
65		27	20		-	5		0	0	1	0	1	1	10	2	11	17	12	16	10	10	0	8	1	0	0
64		26	20		-	6				0		0	0	4	0	4	9	15	10	15	17	3	15	6	1	0	0	0
63		26	21		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	1	3	12	3	12	20	8	18	14	6	1	0	0	0
62		25	21		-	6				0			0	0		0	1	6	1	6	13	12	13	21	16	7	2	1	0	0	0
61		25	22		-	5								0		0	0	2	0	2	5	12	6	17	22	19	10	4	1	0	0	0
60		24	22		-	6								0			0	0		0	1	7	1	7	16	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
59		24	23		-	5								0			0	0		0	0	3	0	2	6	14	21	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
58		23	23		-	6								0				0		0	0	1	0	0	1	5	11	19	23	20	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
57		23	24		-	5								0				0			0	0	0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	0	0	0
56		22	24		-	6								0				0				0		0	0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	16	7	2	0	0
55		22	25		-	5												0				0			0	0	0	1	3	7	16	24	24	17	7	2	0
54		21	25		-	6												0				0				0	0	0	1	2	8	17	25	25	16	5	1
53		21	26		-	5												0				0					0	0	0	1	3	9	20	28	25	12	3
52		20	26		-	6																0							0	0	1	4	12	25	30	22	6
51		20	27		-	5																0							0	0	0	1	6	17	31	31	13
50		19	27		-	6																								0	0	0	2	10	26	38	23
49		19	28		-	5																									0	0	1	5	21	40	34
48		18	28		-	6																										0	0	2	13	39	45
47		18	29		-	5																											0	1	8	35	56
46		17	29		-	6																												0	5	29	66
45		17	30		-	5																												0	3	22	75
44		16	30		-	6																												0	1	17	82
43		16	31		-	5																													1	12	88
42		16	32		-	4																														9	91
41		15	32		-	5																														6	94
40		15	33		-	4																														3	97
6	-39																																				100

Total:							5	5	5	5	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	3	4	3	4	2	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1