Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Washington 5-4 (ot), playoff odds up 4.8 to 46.4%
4 points   2 2-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)+4.6
+0.3
+0.5
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 +0.2
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Vegas vs Arizona-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.1*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
85-108In99.8%100547*
843810-4In97.69910375*
833710-5In97.4982574*
823711-4In95.39820949*
813611-5In90.496311,548*
803511-6In86.294512,386*
793512-5In80.0917203,573*
783412-6In71.48610405,292*
773413-5In60.28014607,742*
763313-6In48.273189010,651*
753314-5In35.06323130014,426*
743214-6In22.65128191019,139*
733215-5100.0%11.938332720025,107*
723115-6100.05.526353540031,396*
713116-5100.01.815344380038,874*
703016-6100.00.483048131046,794*
693017-599.90.13215023300055,337*
682917-699.70.01134633600063,721*
672918-598.9No07374212110071,616*
662818-696.3No03244621340079,263*
652819-590.1No01124127109100085,709*
642719-677.4No0528242018400090,329*
632720-558.6No01151527261230093,243*
622620-636.9No0662526241120094,306*
612621-519.5No02216173023920093,039*
602521-68.2No00078233121710089,585*
592522-52.9No000321227301861084,976*
582422-60.9No000115163029143079,469*
572423-50.3No0000182233269171,540*
562323-60.1No0000312283419463,622*
552324-50.0No00015203630955,263*
542224-60.0No00021131391846,783*
532225-50.0No0001623432839,453*
522125-6OutNo00215424032,109*
512126-50.0No00019375225,636*
502026-6OutNo0005326320,029*
492027-5OutNo03247315,069*
481927-6OutNo01188111,446*
471928-5OutNo0113868,496*
461828-6OutNo09915,948*
451829-5OutNo006944,309*
441729-6OutNo04962,849*
431730-5OutNo2981,915*
421630-6OutNo2981,298*
411631-5OutNo199792*
401531-6OutNo199547*
391532-5OutNo0100322*
381533-4OutNo100179*
371433-5OutNo199101*
4-36OutNo100264*
Total:46.4%2.3%55111266667777771,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasPhiladelphiaNew JerseyWashingtonNY IslandersMinnesotaColoradoSt. LouisArizonaAnaheimBostonNY RangersLos AngelesSan JoseBuffalo
108520-03.9%11719131711669
96455-2NoYes
92426-4No333333
91427-3No6733
90439-0No333333
89418-328.6141429141414
88408-46.8275111125511232214
87398-57.15131114947224135247
86399-43.921413121145135692213
85389-56.521011121043455865712
843810-46.741091196563368768
833710-55.75910993444510104410
823711-46.8411910103555498457
813611-56.5511119954453108558
803511-66.0410111095544598458
793512-56.5410101095555598447
783412-66.4599995556598557
773413-56.55991095555588557
763313-66.45910995555588557
753314-56.1410101095555598557
743214-66.4510101195555598447
733215-56.24111111104444498447
723115-66.54121212114444398337
713116-56.331312131233333109338
703016-66.2214141412222221110228
693017-56.2215151513222221210119
682917-66.1115151514111111211119
2816-86.0115151413111111211119
672918-56.3215151514111111110119
3019-36.2215151514111111110118
662818-66.2215141413222111110118
2717-85.931413141222222119118
652819-55.83121212112222298227
2920-35.93131212112222298227
642719-65.0410101093332277225
2618-84.7499983332276225
632720-53.7477763332254223
622620-62.4345442221132112
612621-51.3233221111111101
602622-40.5111110000011000
592522-50.2010000000000000
582523-40.1000000000000000
572423-50.000000000000000
562424-40.00000000000
552425-30.00000000
542325-4No0000000
532326-3No000
522428-0No
512227-30.00
4-50No
Total:2.9%1.86.26.16.15.51.41.41.41.21.24.64.11.01.03.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)-1.0
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 -0.0
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.0*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0+0.1*-0.0
Anaheim vs Minnesota*-0.0+0.0*+0.1*+0.0+0.0*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
86-108100
85389-51001
843810-498110
833710-59712
823711-495320
813611-5906301
803511-686751
793512-580117020
783412-67115100400
773413-560201306000
763313-648251818000
753314-53528222120000
743214-62329253171110
733215-51226276223202000
723115-662025102564040000
713116-5213191523118070000
703016-607121718161411211010
693017-50361610171941832030000
682917-6012114142091976060000
672918-5016181413161313111110100
662818-600203614815194174303000
652819-50010121021118101899091000
642719-600040410131113182166100
632720-5000101311411207191562000
622620-600015151312132117831000
612621-500020151151522191252000
602521-600000161514212216831000
592522-500003014111823201262000
582422-600001001381522221683100
572423-5000000002613212319114100
562323-60000151120242012510
552324-50000014112026221240
542224-600001411212722102
532225-5000015142530196
522125-6002718313012
512126-50000211273722
502026-60015204034
492027-5002133747
481927-60183358
471928-50042768
461828-6022078
451829-5011485
441729-601090
431730-50693
421630-6595
411631-5298
401531-6298
391532-5298
381533-4199
371433-5199
4-36100
Total:2233333333434342444444444444443