Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Lost to Philadelphia 4-7, playoff odds down 6.1 to 84.4%
41 points   19 11-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Toronto 4 Philadelphia 7 -3.6
-0.4
-0.8
-0.5
Pittsburgh 3 Florida 1 +0.3
-0.1
Montreal 4 Ottawa 1 +0.2
New Jersey 0 Washington 4 -0.2
Carolina 2 NY Rangers 3 (so)*-0.1
NY Islanders 3 Tampa Bay 1 +0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Chicago vs Toronto-2.9+0.4+0.4+3.3+3.6+3.6
-0.2*+0.0+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.5
-0.3+0.0+0.0+0.4+0.4+0.4
Boston vs Buffalo-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.2+0.3+0.7
NY Rangers vs Carolina-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.4
Winnipeg vs Philadelphia+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Detroit vs Colorado-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.1+0.1+0.3
-0.0-0.0*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
128-139InYes1005,803*
127414-4In98.9%99188*
126415-3In97.9982188*
125405-4In96.8973526*
124406-3In94.59641,120*
123396-4In91.394602,231*
122397-3In87.792804,423*
121387-4In83.6891108,791*
120377-5In77.68514015,786*
119378-4In70.28119027,994*
118368-5In62.17623148,096*
117369-4In53.170291078,920*
116359-5In43.36334200126,039*
1153510-4In33.55641300195,036*
1143410-5In24.34846500291,967*
1133411-4In16.540528000423,782*
1123311-5In10.0325610100594,762*
1113312-4In5.62559141100815,768*
1103212-5In2.718601831001,086,853*
1093213-4In1.112592252001,402,218*
1083113-5In0.485524840001,762,503*
1073114-4In0.1550261370002,158,323*
1063014-5In0.02432519101102,574,767*
1052914-6In0.01352225151102,988,158*
1042915-5100.0%0.002718301933003,383,603*
1032815-6100.00.001913332365003,731,103*
1022816-5100.0No013934261081004,016,283*
1012716-6100.0No085312516131004,208,397*
1002717-599.8No0522623221930004,311,609*
992617-699.5No0312018262471004,306,876*
982618-598.5No01014132929121004,201,019*
972518-696.1No109828312040004,001,331*
962519-591.5No005424302881003,720,987*
952419-683.8No00321925351420003,375,776*
942420-572.6No00111419382251002,997,050*
932320-658.7No00109133630101002,593,178*
922321-543.8No0005831351730002,198,149*
912221-629.8No0003423372571001,814,514*
902222-518.4No0012153532132001,466,881*
892122-610.3No001192836204001,156,234*
882123-55.1No000052137289100893,071*
872023-62.3No0000213333514200671,709*
862024-50.9No0018273922400493,956*
851924-60.3No0004193830810353,710*
841925-50.1No00021234371310249,518*
831825-60.0No0001728412030170,785*
821826-50.0No004204228600114,618*
811726-6OutNo02143935101074,507*
801727-5OutNo0183341162047,753*
791627-6OutNo0052543234029,527*
781628-5OutNo021842317017,870*
771629-4OutNo0111383811110,905*
761529-5OutNo0731431726,107*
751530-4OutNo0425452333,399*
741430-5OutNo0218433251,903*
731431-4OutNo112413791,037*
721331-5OutNo06364413560*
711332-4OutNo13284918299*
701232-5OutNo1235027155*
691132-6OutNo117443770*
681133-5OutNo210454342*
671134-4OutNo277315*
661034-5OutNo366411*
65934-6OutNo1001
41049-0OutNo1005,740
Total:84.4%0.8%314714111213117421000069,244,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghNY IslandersTampa BayDetroitMontrealNY RangersWashingtonFloridaBostonOttawaPhiladelphiaColumbusNew JerseyCarolinaBuffalo
139490-06.8%049617101691286110
130444-1No2020202020
129423-45.35516162121115
128424-37.7858135181851010
127414-45.72751471813101483
126415-34.868121410141371051
125405-49.361061611161113840
124406-37.10488169141112106110
123396-45.70489151115111196100
122397-37.2058916101410111061000
121387-47.00589161015111196100
120377-56.8049101610141011951000
119378-47.2049101610141011951000
118368-57.0059101610141010951000
117369-47.0059111610141010951000
116359-56.805911171114109851000
1153510-46.705101217111499841000
1143410-56.606101217111498841000
1133411-46.606101317111488741000
1123311-56.517111317121487731000
1113312-46.417111317131577630000
1103212-56.318111316141566530000
1093213-46.2110111316151665530000
1083113-56.1211111315161655430000
1073114-45.9212111314161644420000
1063014-55.8314111313171643320000
1052914-65.7316111312181633320000
1042915-55.5417111312181632220000
1032815-65.3518121311181522220000
1022816-55.2619121311171522210000
1012716-65.0820131311171421110000
1002717-54.81020141311161221110000
992617-64.71320151310141111110000
982618-54.5171915131012911110000
972518-64.221171613910711100000
962519-53.92615151188610000000
952419-63.52913141076400000000
942420-53.0301011854300000000
932320-62.42889543200000000
922321-51.72366432100000000
912221-61.21744221100000000
902222-50.71122111000000000
892122-60.4611100000000000
882123-50.231100000000000
872124-40.1100000000000000
862024-50.0100000000
851924-60.00000000000
841925-50.00000000
831825-60.00000000
821826-5No00
41-81No
Total:4.2%12.113.611.210.69.211.49.82.01.71.61.10.10.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto 4 Philadelphia 7 +0.9
NY Islanders 3 Tampa Bay 1 -0.1
Pittsburgh 3 Florida 1 -0.0
Montreal 4 Ottawa 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Toronto+0.6-0.0-0.0-0.7-0.8-0.8
Detroit vs Colorado+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Boston vs Buffalo+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
128-139100
127414-4991
126415-39812
125405-49703
124406-39424
123396-491360
122397-388480
121387-4846110
120377-57881400
119378-470111900
118368-5621423010
117369-45317290100
116359-543203402000
1153510-433234003000
1143410-524244615000
1133411-4162450171000
1123311-51022543911000
1113312-4619545113101000
1103212-53155281353010000
1093213-41114811138502000
1083113-5074015121280400000
1073114-40432181016130610000
1063014-50223207181818210100
1052914-6011520418232104101000
1042915-500918216264128303000
1032815-60041511225811126050000
1022816-50211082212916100811000
1012716-60180516156191511121000
1002717-500502101631919314530000
992617-60030151511720616960100
982618-5001021201218111514111100
972518-60101808141412191734000
962519-5000050481682221771000
952419-6000030241542121131330000
942420-500010121221817211971000
932320-6000100181121125221441000
922321-50000050762521221130000
912221-6000030422116261972000
902222-500001021151024271551000
892122-6000101095182924113000
882123-500000052112529197100
872023-600000215182927144000
862024-5000102102431228200
851924-6000015162929154000
841925-500000292332249200
831825-600001415303016400
821826-5000282333249100
811726-600416313115400
801727-50029243323710
791627-600041732301430
781628-500210263422610
771629-401519342911200
761529-5021229341841
751530-4016233625910
741430-503163233132
731431-41830352140
721331-50521362980
711332-402123435151
701232-5183329281
691132-6919372411
681133-5217264510
671134-4727607
661034-5936459
65934-6100
41049-0100
Total:128625864775676543321100000000