Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 0.9%
48 points   22 25-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Washington 3 St. Louis 4 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs
NY Rangers vs Florida+0.0*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
110310-0In5.6%481633030555
106270-4InNo1001
105271-3InNo67333*
104272-2InNo252525254*
103273-1InNo1742172512*
102263-298.1%No2282319406253*
101253-3InNo410194325122*
100254-297.6No381841272333*
99244-392.5No0131240368704*
98245-285.4No01831451501,611*
97235-375.1No00522482413,295*
96225-464.1No002154734206,432*
95226-350.7No001841454011,802*
94216-436.6No014325580020,480*
93217-325.6No022360141033,985*
92207-416.1No011560222053,663*
91208-39.4No009553050081,666*
90198-44.7No0054738910118,218*
89199-32.2No0236441620164,194*
88189-41.0No001264524400217,894*
871810-30.3No00174232910278,169*
861710-40.1No001035381520339,158*
851711-30.0No05264124400401,404*
841611-40.0No02173932810453,446*
831612-30.0No011033401510496,164*
821512-40.0No00525432330520,606*
811513-3OutNo0216413370525,260*
801413-4OutNo0193640131508,975*
791414-3OutNo0052745212477,663*
781314-4OutNo021845304430,043*
771315-3OutNo0111413980374,084*
761215-4OutNo0063346140313,232*
751216-3OutNo0032550210251,756*
741116-4OutNo011851300195,474*
731117-3OutNo011148400145,635*
721017-4OutNo0743500104,603*
711018-3OutNo043660072,024*
70918-4OutNo022969047,745*
69919-3OutNo012277030,557*
68819-4OutNo01684018,584*
67820-3OutNo01188010,707*
66720-4OutNo089216,088*
65721-3OutNo59413,229*
64621-4OutNo39521,693*
63622-3OutNo2944779*
62522-4OutNo3917356*
61523-3OutNo1927182*
60524-2OutNo1801975*
59424-3OutNo742619*
58425-2OutNo1002
57426-1OutNo67333*
56326-2OutNo1003*
48031-0OutNo595555
Total:0.9%0.0%0000000161117212116706,723,300

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayMontrealDetroitNY IslandersNY RangersPittsburghWashingtonBostonOttawaFloridaPhiladelphia
110310-00.5%71281512111717010
106270-4NoYes
105271-3No3367
104272-2No25252525
103273-1No178817428
102263-2No1381515172524
101253-30.816131612141981
100254-20.613101920161461
99244-30.716121516151351
98245-20.113151316161131
234-40.41713141514931
97235-30.21511121213821
224-50.11413121212821
246-10.11811913151021
96225-40.21410111110610
236-20.41411119127110
214-60.214991010621
95226-30.3118988510
215-50.2119987410
237-10.5129988510
94216-40.286666300
227-20.297766310
205-60.186655300
238-00.197556400
93217-30.2655442000
206-50.155444200
228-10.165644200
195-7No55333200
92207-40.143322100
218-20.143323100
196-60.1432221000
91208-30.022211100
197-50.022111100
219-10.132222100
186-70.021111000
90198-40.011111000
209-20.011111000
187-60.011111000
89199-30.010000000
188-50.000000000
2010-10.010000000
88189-40.000000000
1910-20.000000000
871810-30.00000000
861710-40.000000000
851711-3No0000000
841611-4No0000000
831612-3No0000
821512-4No0
48-81No
Total:0.0%0.20.20.20.10.10.10.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

SundayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Rangers vs Florida-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
110310-06421331914030
106270-4100
105271-3333333
104272-225252525
103273-18817251725
102263-22262221194062
101253-343717240225
100254-22108153384272
99244-300103843283608
98245-200153229441140
97235-300022138462241
96225-40012694153420
95226-300012632944500
94216-4000142012511110
93217-3000210135020400
92207-40001411423010200
91208-3000182935206100
90198-4000416322914410
89199-3002723322410200
88189-400013132730197100
871810-300016182927144100
861710-40002922312410200
851711-3000413273019610
841611-40001619312812200
831612-30000210253322600
821512-4000151732311320
811513-300029263722400
801413-4004173632910
791414-3001930401720
781314-400422422740
771315-300213393790
761215-4001732441510
751216-300323472420
741116-400115453350
731117-3009404290
721017-4053249140
711018-3022452211
70918-4011651302
69919-3010473840
68819-406404770
67820-3033353110
66720-4022457180
65721-311756260
64621-401156331
63622-3552412
62522-4642493
61523-3237546
60524-2256411
59424-3325316
58425-2100
57426-16733
56326-23367
48031-0595
Total:00000000000000002346810131617137200