Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 56%
24 points   11 8-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)-0.4
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 -0.3
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs NY Rangers+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 +4.5
+0.2
+0.1
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 +0.8
Boston 0 Montreal 2 +0.5
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 +0.5
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 -0.2
Philadelphia 4 Columbus 2 -0.2
Colorado 4 Carolina 3 *+0.1
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 *-0.1
+0.1
Calgary 5 New Jersey 4 (so)*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-146InYes1009,189*
125488-5In98.3%982180*
124478-6In99.09900312*
123479-5In97.79820661*
122469-6In96.897201,288*
1214610-5In95.897212,406*
1204510-6In93.695414,372*
1194511-5In91.294517,898*
1184411-6In88.0917213,389*
1174311-7In83.388102022,674*
1164312-6In77.784124037,077*
1154212-7In70.279155058,808*
1144213-6In61.774197091,648*
1134113-7In52.26723100139,770*
1124114-6In41.959261400206,985*
1114014-7In31.751301810299,701*
1104015-6In22.343332310424,913*
1093915-7In14.4343528300586,019*
1083916-6In8.3263634400795,282*
1073816-7In4.21935397001,051,095*
1063817-6100.0%1.8133243111001,360,500*
1053717-7100.00.782846152001,724,507*
1043718-6100.00.252447213002,141,521*
1033618-7100.00.0218462760002,601,183*
1023619-6100.00.01134233101003,099,623*
1013519-799.90.0093638152003,611,837*
1003520-699.70.0062940214004,128,572*
993420-799.1No0322392781004,629,163*
983421-698.0No021536321320005,082,348*
973321-795.6No011031351940005,474,976*
963322-691.1No00624342681005,772,005*
953222-783.7No0031830321420005,973,742*
943223-672.7No0212243521610006,066,479*
933123-758.8No0171734281120006,044,239*
923124-643.4No0041029331851005,908,632*
913024-728.9No00252133251020005,658,970*
902924-817.1No00121330311751005,329,467*
892925-79.0No00017233324102004,919,957*
882825-84.1No00004153030164004,452,920*
872826-71.7No0001924332481003,957,401*
862726-80.6No00014173231142003,454,704*
852727-70.2No00002102735214002,955,158*
842627-80.0No0000152036298102,482,270*
832628-70.0No0000313333614202,046,694*
822528-80.0No00018274021301,655,843*
812529-70.0No0004204128601,312,958*
802530-60.0No00021438351001,024,645*
792430-7OutNo00193341151781,899*
782431-6OutNo0052744212586,732*
772331-7OutNo0032145283431,314*
762332-6OutNo0011543356311,525*
752232-7OutNo0011039419220,777*
742233-6OutNo006344613152,891*
732133-7OutNo004285018104,530*
722134-6OutNo00222522470,369*
712034-7OutNo0117513145,720*
702035-6OutNo112493829,091*
691935-7OutNo09474418,412*
681936-6OutNo06425211,486*
671836-7OutNo0437596,787*
661837-6OutNo0232654,086*
651737-7OutNo128712,429*
641738-6OutNo122771,343*
631638-7OutNo1783747*
621639-6OutNo1387417*
611539-7OutNo1189224*
601540-6OutNo892105*
591440-7OutNo89249*
581441-6OutNo59519*
24-57OutNo1009,087*
Total:56.0%0.7%2410141313119875310109,414,020

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghTampa BayNY IslandersMontrealDetroitOttawaNY RangersBostonWashingtonFloridaPhiladelphiaNew JerseyCarolinaColumbusBuffalo
146610-06.1%07214131561661154100
131-13350.0Yes
130505-6No202060
129528-1No5050
128496-611.111113311111111
127497-56.366613931999936
126487-64.2112871887714143
125488-54.4713122261651253
124478-65.41621513176155124210
123479-56.10931314144164135310
122469-67.00721414164165954200
1214610-55.907213131651751253100
1204510-65.91721413155165124410
1194511-56.108214151651641244100
1184411-66.118214151551651144100
1174311-75.908215141651551144100
1164312-65.808215151651551143100
1154212-75.709215151641541143100
1144213-65.709216161541441143100
1134113-75.6010216161541441033100
1124114-65.6011217171541441033100
1114014-75.601221818144134933100
1104015-65.501321919143133932100
1093915-75.401411919143123922100
1083916-65.301512020143122822000
1073816-75.201712121132112822000
1063817-65.111812121132112711000
1053717-75.011912221132102711000
1043718-64.922012222121101711000
1033618-74.832112221121101611000
1023619-64.64212222112191611000
1013519-74.56222212011191610000
1003520-64.48223202010181510000
993420-74.311224191810171500000
983421-64.21422518179171400000
973321-74.01722616157161400000
963322-63.82022614136151300000
953222-73.42220712115131200000
943223-62.922186984121200000
933123-72.320145762121100000
923124-61.716114542010100000
913024-71.11173321010000000
903025-60.7742210000000000
892925-70.3421110000000000
882926-60.2210000000000000
872826-70.1100000000000000
862827-60.0000000000000000
852727-70.000000000000000
842728-60.000000000000000
832628-70.00000000000
822528-80.0000000000
812529-7No0000
802631-4No0
24-79No
Total:2.4%9.312.43.09.59.04.70.63.60.62.40.40.30.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)+0.0
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 -0.7
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -0.1
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 +0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-146100
125488-5982
124478-699000
123479-598020
122469-697120
1214610-596121
1204510-694141
1194511-591251
1184411-688372
1174311-78351020
1164312-6787120400
1154212-77091505000
1144213-662121907000
1134113-7521523010000
1124114-64218260130000
1114014-732202911700100
1104015-6222031221111000
1093915-714203232521030000
1083916-68183152842040000
1073816-74152872974070000
1063817-6211231027106010001000
1053717-717171123149015102000
1043718-60411121718121192003000
1033618-702712111914123410600000
1023619-60131061815324710901000
1013519-700282151452312301412000
1003520-600151101181817501924000
993420-7003067912207123380100
983421-60020349620822571202000
973321-700101272178323121814000
963322-600000151127518162428100
953222-700000307561119275133000
943223-6000020326618251020610000
933123-70001011521518152513300000
923124-600000003110111826208200000
913024-70000000205516212616610000
902924-80000001022121426241351000
892925-700000010771927221141000
882825-80000000043112227201031000
872826-7000000011514242618820000
862726-800000102717262516610000
852727-70000000392027231341000
842627-8000000141223282192000
832628-7000000161526271761000
822528-800000029202924123000
812529-7000014132529207100
802530-600001719302713300
792430-7000312253121710
782431-6000161931281220
772331-700031228331950
762332-60001722342681
752232-70004153233142
742233-600292837214
732133-700152138287
722134-600315363511
712034-700110324116
702035-6016264423
691935-703214530
681936-602154538
671836-701104147
661837-60173755
651737-7053461
641738-6032869
631638-722177
621639-611881
611539-71486
601540-61090
591440-7892
581441-6595
24-57100
Total:112223324522768587654433211100