Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 50%
0 points   0 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Montreal+3.8+3.4+2.9-1.6-1.7-5.9
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.3-0.3-1.0
Boston vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Nashville vs Ottawa+0.4*+0.0*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Washington vs Montreal+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.1
Buffalo vs Columbus-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.3
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.1*+0.1+0.3
St. Louis vs NY Rangers+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Tampa Bay vs Florida+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.1
Detroit vs Boston+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.1
Philadelphia vs New Jersey+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
127-164In100.0%1008,163*
1265915-8In99.81000657*
124-125In99.91003,038*
1235716-9In99.8100003,210*
1225717-8In99.810004,848*
1215617-9In99.7100008,010*
1205618-8In99.51000012,393*
1195518-9In98.91000018,877*
1185519-8In98.5990028,204*
1175419-9In97.6991042,138*
1165420-8In96.3981161,159*
1155320-9In94.69711086,809*
1145321-8In91.896220122,244*
1135221-9In88.294330169,456*
1125121-10In83.292540231,017*
1115122-9In76.788750308,443*
1105022-10In68.7839800403,890*
1095023-9In59.178121000525,101*
1084923-10In48.4701514100669,489*
1074924-9In37.2621918100837,838*
1064824-10In26.35323222001,038,346*
1054825-9100.0%16.842262740001,263,827*
1044725-10100.09.432293360001,515,496*
1034726-9100.04.5233037910001,789,569*
1024626-10100.01.81529411320002,081,248*
1014627-9100.00.5927421840002,387,768*
1004527-1099.90.15234224610002,691,722*
994528-999.80.021840291020002,998,480*
984428-1099.50.011335331440003,287,549*
974429-998.50.009293518710003,553,163*
964329-1096.1No0523352111310003,783,262*
954330-990.9No03163222177200003,970,621*
944230-1081.3No021127202213510004,109,302*
934231-966.9No0172115231910310004,191,082*
924131-1049.3No041592124177200004,208,701*
914132-931.9No0210515242314610004,179,175*
904032-1017.9No016291925211141004,085,660*
894033-98.7No003141323261992003,937,579*
883933-103.8No002027172625156103,737,746*
873934-91.5No0010131021272311303,506,608*
863834-100.5No000001514252818613,234,836*
853835-90.2No00000282029261222,951,108*
843735-100.1No00000141327311952,647,692*
833736-90.0No0000002821332792,346,026*
823636-100.0No0000014153134152,051,406*
813637-90.0No00000292739231,764,241*
803537-100.0No0000152141321,499,483*
793538-90.0No0000031540411,256,039*
783438-10OutNo00011037511,037,773*
773439-9OutNo00173260842,042*
763339-10OutNo00042769676,613*
753340-9OutNo0022276536,573*
743240-10OutNo00011782418,039*
733241-9OutNo011387322,385*
723141-10OutNo00990244,328*
713142-9OutNo00793182,637*
703042-10OutNo0595134,989*
693043-9OutNo039798,853*
682943-10OutNo029870,419*
672944-9OutNo029850,209*
662844-10OutNo19934,674*
652845-9OutNo19923,971*
642745-10OutNo010016,020*
632746-9OutNo010010,663*
622646-10OutNo01006,992*
612647-9OutNo01004,617*
602547-10OutNo01002,908*
0-59OutNo10011,956*
Total:50.0%3.3%661213666666666688,339,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghDetroitOttawaMontrealNY RangersBostonNY IslandersFloridaPhiladelphiaCarolinaTampa BayColumbusBuffaloWashingtonNew Jersey
164820-07.4%767767676777777
1376712-3NoYes
136639-10NoYes
1346513-433.3333333
1336211-9No141414291414
1326212-88.317888881725
1316213-75.611258336636861133
1306113-88.23355118135535131010
1296114-79.87798557976107655
1286014-87.541251346586565866
1276015-77.66998566866114754
1265915-86.7678957686676666
1255815-97.2687768586585965
1245816-87.7578957686586765
1235716-97.4679767586685966
1225717-87.3578867585686866
1215617-97.3587868685686856
1205618-87.6687858686686866
1195518-97.3578868686686866
1185519-87.8588868586685866
1175419-97.4588868685686865
1165420-87.5688868686686866
1155320-97.5688868686685866
1145321-87.3588858686685866
1135221-97.4688868585685855
1125121-107.5688858585585855
1115122-97.4588858585585855
1105022-107.3588858585585855
1095023-97.4588958595585855
1084923-107.3599959595595955
1074924-97.3599959595595955
1064824-107.2499949494494944
1054825-97.04101010410410441041044
1044725-107.04101010410410441041044
1034726-96.93101010310310331031033
1024626-106.73111111311311331131133
1014627-96.63111111311311331131133
1004527-106.43111111311311331131133
994528-96.33111111211311221121122
984428-106.23111111311311331131123
974429-96.03111111311311331131133
964329-105.83111111311311331131133
954330-95.43101010310310331031033
944230-104.7388838383383833
934231-93.8277727272272722
924131-102.8255525252252522
914132-91.8133313131131311
904032-101.0122212121121211
894033-90.5011101010010100
883933-100.2000000000000000
873934-90.1000000000000000
863935-80.0000000000000000
853835-90.0000000000000000
843836-80.0000000000000000
833736-90.000000000000000
823737-80.00000000000
813738-70.0000000000
803537-10No0000
793538-9No0
0-78No
Total:3.1%1.65.25.25.31.65.31.65.31.61.65.31.65.31.61.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Montreal-0.8-0.7-0.6+0.3+0.4+1.2
Boston vs Philadelphia+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Nashville vs Ottawa-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Columbus+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Washington vs Montreal-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Tampa Bay vs Florida-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0
Detroit vs Boston-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
132-164100
1316213-7973
128-130100
1276015-71000
1265915-81000
1255815-9100
1245816-81000
1235716-9100000
1225717-810000
1215617-9100000
1205618-899000
1195518-999100
1185519-898100
1175419-998110
1165420-896211
1155320-99531100
1145321-892420200
1135221-988630300
1125121-10838504000
1115122-97711605000
1105022-1069159080000
1095023-95918120100000
1084923-1048221501300100
1074924-9372518117001000
1064824-1026262112111020000
1054825-91726242242104000000
1044725-10923244264306000000
1034726-94192372675090010000
1024626-102132010221080120020000
1014627-9181512171412016110400000
1004527-100510131015151193206010000
994528-902512514183195409020000
984428-10013102111751698013140000
974429-90018071491112120162701000
964329-100050391151216217511031000
954330-900301511210164148161720000
944230-1000200290614791118313510000
934231-9001001603910411167181041000
924131-10000040141018101120189310000
914132-9000020028044111622189310000
904032-1000001001602188182318104100000
894033-900000030104310192319114100000
883933-100000020002131019232013620000
873934-9000010001013918232114720000
863834-10000000000001391723221572000
853835-9000000000138172323167200
843735-1000000000013917242315610
833736-90000000013101926231341
823636-100000000141222282292
813637-900000016152729174
803537-10000000292132269
793538-9000001414303416
783438-1000029253925
773439-90015194135
763339-100002133946
753340-9000183457
743240-1000052966
733241-90032374
723141-100011881
713142-9011386
703042-1000990
693043-900793
682943-100595
672944-90397
662844-100298
652845-9199
642745-10199
632746-9199
622646-100100
612647-90100
602547-100100
592548-90100
582549-8100
572449-90100
54-56100
532251-9199
0-52100
Total:333343434342424244444333333333