Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Beat New Jersey 3-2 (so), playoff odds up 0.5 to 1.9%
47 points   19 22-9

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto 3 New Jersey 2 (so)+0.5
No
Florida 6 Detroit 3 +0.1
Nashville 3 Philadelphia 6 -0.1
Buffalo 2 Boston 3 (so)-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Winnipeg vs Carolina+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
111320-0In1.5%3934212,351
109300-2InNo1001
108301-1InNo71297*
107291-2InNo544641*
106292-1InNo5743120*
105282-2InNo42544567*
104272-3InNo3258901,810*
103273-2InNo23621515,460*
102263-3InNo156122215,644*
101264-2InNo957313040,210*
100254-3100.0%No5493970098,504*
99244-4100.0No339461210223,496*
98245-399.9No1294919200479,617*
97235-499.6No12049255000976,560*
96236-398.4No0124530112001,878,083*
95226-494.6No0738302051003,446,291*
94227-386.2No04292628122006,025,649*
93217-471.6No0220183221610010,071,132*
92218-352.4No011310293014300016,065,609*
91208-432.8No0074213425810024,569,827*
90209-317.2No004212303316300035,996,257*
89199-47.5No00205213527910050,646,070*
881910-32.7No01021230351730068,456,931*
871810-40.8No00015213627810088,960,114*
861811-30.2No0000212313617300111,249,344*
851711-40.0No000015223827700133,928,527*
841712-30.0No0000021334361410155,329,887*
831612-40.0No00001625412430173,643,545*
821613-30.0No0000316393470187,104,987*
811513-40.0No0000193343141194,415,381*
801514-30.0No000042347242194,789,372*
791414-4OutNo00021545344188,259,108*
781415-3OutNo001839458175,539,596*
771315-4OutNo0004305213157,888,168*
761316-3OutNo002225621136,960,809*
751216-4OutNo001145530114,605,043*
741217-3OutNo0008524092,428,412*
731117-4OutNo005455071,855,128*
721118-3OutNo002376053,831,412*
711018-4OutNo01306938,827,704*
701019-3OutNo00237726,957,909*
69919-4OutNo00168318,008,339*
68920-3OutNo00128811,556,805*
67820-4OutNo008927,126,748*
66821-3OutNo05954,209,754*
65721-4OutNo03972,387,197*
64722-3OutNo02981,292,367*
63622-4OutNo0199669,733*
62623-3OutNo199330,914*
61523-4OutNo0100155,233*
60524-3OutNo010069,863*
59525-2OutNo010029,232*
58425-3OutNo010011,331*
57426-2OutNo1004,235*
56326-3OutNo01001,572*
47-55OutNo100213,054*
Total:1.9%0.0%00010124711172223122,561,851,060

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonFloridaTampa BayNY RangersNY IslandersBostonPittsburghDetroitNew JerseyPhiladelphiaCarolinaMontrealOttawaBuffaloColumbus
111320-00.6%419992111118422000
109300-2NoYes
108301-1No571429
107291-2No10275227512552
106292-1No933472348633
105282-2No83942264942110
104272-30.410373328410211100
103273-20.412402228310210100
102263-30.4012441127291101000
101264-20.501544112719100100
100254-30.401744112718100100
99244-40.412043002508000100
98245-30.422441002407000100
97235-40.452838002107000100
96236-30.3113033001805000100
225-50.3123033001705000100
95226-40.3202927001404000100
237-20.32029270014040001000
94227-30.3282521001003000000
216-50.328242000903000000
238-10.3282421001003000000
93217-40.232171400602000000
228-20.232181500702000000
206-60.232171400602000000
92218-30.22910900401000000
207-50.22810900401000000
229-10.229111000401000000
196-70.2289800301000000
91208-40.1205500200000000
219-20.1215500201000000
197-60.12045002000000000
186-80.1205500200000000
90209-30.1122300100000000
198-50.0112200100000000
2110-10.1132300100000000
187-70.0112200100000000
89199-40.0511000000000000
2010-20.061100000000000
188-60.051100000000000
881910-30.020100000000000
189-50.020000000000000
871810-40.010000000000000
861811-30.000000000000000
851711-40.00000000000000
841712-30.000000000000
831612-40.00000000
821613-30.000000
811513-4No0000
801615-1No0
47-79No
Total:0.0%0.90.40.40.00.00.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto 3 New Jersey 2 (so)-0.5
FridayNone

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
111320-012912400
109300-2100
108301-17129
107291-241123215
106292-14215211841
105282-225172127640
104272-317151434100900
103273-2101383517113101
102263-351053222219212
101264-2272262542352300
100254-314117247259507000
99244-402010209221310012010
98245-30104141016161701812000
97235-4000281091524123250000
96236-3000048411282255110200
95226-4000025172632381905100
94227-30001303215161026212200
93217-40000101136810284216100
92218-30001007637227301530000
91208-40000003414138322591000
90209-30000130157253319510000
89199-4000001001414312914410000
881910-3000010002620312512310000
871810-400000000192230231131000
861811-3000000002102228221131000
851711-4000000003112228221030000
841712-30000000013112328211030000
831612-4000000141224292182000
821613-300000014132629197100
811513-400000001516282916410
801514-300000172031271120
791414-4000021025332260
781415-3000014163232142
771315-40000182438244
761316-30000315363610
751216-400018304417
741217-30004214828
731117-40001134639
721118-300074151
711018-400043462
701019-30022672
69919-40011980
68920-30001386
67820-400991
66821-300694
65721-40496
64722-30298
63622-40199
62623-30199
61523-40100
60524-30100
59525-20100
58425-30100
57426-20100
56326-30100
47-55100
Total:0000000000000010123455789101112128