Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Tied with Vancouver 0-0 (7:00 pm ET), playoff odds down 0.8 to 34.1%
24 points   10 9-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Nashville 4 New Jersey 5 (ot)-0.5
Philadelphia 3 Chicago 1 -0.3
Buffalo 1 Boston 2 -0.2
NY Rangers 4 Carolina 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs Toronto-5.2-0.9-0.8+3.6+4.3+4.2
-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Washington-0.2-0.5-0.4*-0.2*-0.3+0.5
Ottawa vs Florida*+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.5+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Carolina vs Tampa Bay+0.5*-0.1*-0.2-0.3-0.6-0.3
NY Islanders vs Detroit+0.3*-0.0*+0.0*-0.3-0.4-0.2
Nashville vs Philadelphia+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.4
Los Angeles vs Montreal+0.2*+0.0*-0.0*-0.2*-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121-142InYes100328*
120458-6In83.3%83176*
118-119InYes10061*
1174410-5In83.38514178*
1164411-4In82.284106146*
1154311-5In80.584124246*
1144211-6In70.0731710436*
1134212-5In62.46821110779*
1124112-6In54.060251401,206*
1114012-7In43.251291902,055*
1104013-6In33.041352303,091*
1093913-7In21.731383004,727*
1083914-6In13.6234134107,018*
1073814-7In8.2174141210,224*
1063815-6In4.010404640014,610*
1053715-7In1.8637516020,427*
1043716-6In0.63335591027,835*
1033616-7In0.222757131037,047*
1023617-6100.0%0.0121581920048,419*
1013517-7100.00.0016552530061,700*
1003518-699.9No011513161076,401*
993418-799.7No0745369200093,331*
983419-699.0No053740125100110,890*
973319-796.9No329421593000130,021*
963320-692.4No012141151461000148,429*
953220-783.9No114371419124100167,141*
943221-670.5No093010211982000183,315*
933121-754.0No052371924155100198,797*
923122-637.0No03163152623113000210,162*
913022-722.2No01101922281972000215,639*
903023-611.9No01615162726144100219,356*
892923-75.6No00302102229229200219,084*
882924-62.4No0201515272816510213,349*
872824-70.9No00100292230241020204,387*
862724-80.3No0000141428301851192,218*
852725-70.1No000028213226101176,379*
842625-80.0No000014142932173159,165*
832626-70.0No000282435256140,834*
822526-80.0No001417343311121,474*
812527-7OutNo00211303918103,694*
802528-6OutNo001624432686,837*
792428-7OutNo000318433670,701*
782429-6OutNo0212414656,899*
772329-7OutNo018365544,766*
762330-6OutNo005316434,337*
752230-7OutNo003257226,250*
742231-6OutNo01198019,560*
732131-7OutNo01158414,237*
722132-6OutNo00118910,079*
712032-7OutNo07927,146*
702033-6OutNo06944,988*
691933-7OutNo04963,246*
681934-6OutNo2982,150*
671834-7OutNo1991,302*
661835-6OutNo199816*
651735-7OutNo0100516*
24-64OutNo1001,045*
Total:34.1%0.2%02101346799999863,909,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNY RangersMontrealColumbusWashingtonPittsburghBostonTampa BayOttawaNew JerseyFloridaPhiladelphiaDetroitCarolinaNY IslandersBuffalo
142590-02.5%3148881010148113661
123488-350.05050
121457-7No333333
120458-6No171717171717
119448-73.7415422741511747
118449-68.869121212186336393
1174410-5No56912696109145511
1164411-42.13512129135147103321
1154311-53.331411129911115103343
1144211-63.233491010711810104462
1134212-54.0334118141189893532
1124112-62.82348111211109883442
1114012-72.923499141399874432
1104013-63.5244991313108964332
1093913-73.1244991514107964322
1083914-63.5353891614117954322
1073814-73.32637817141261054222
1063815-63.02736718151251044222
1053715-73.12836620161241034212
1043716-63.22935621171341134112
1033616-73.121024421171331124112
1023617-62.921223422181421224112
1013517-72.921323323191421214112
1003518-62.921422223181411215102
993418-72.831622223181411215002
3317-92.731622222181411215002
983419-62.641731122181311114002
3520-42.841731122181311114002
973319-72.651841120161211104002
3218-92.461841120161211004002
963320-62.47195211814110904002
3421-42.37196111814110904002
953220-72.2818611151290803001
3119-92.1918611151290703001
943221-61.7916611121070602001
3322-41.791561111970602001
933121-71.38126119750402001
3020-91.27115118650402001
923122-60.8684116430301001
913022-70.5353004320201000
903023-60.3221002210100000
892923-70.11110011100000
882924-60.100000100000000
872824-70.000000000000000
862825-60.0000000000000
852725-70.00000000000
842726-60.00000000
832626-7No0000
822526-8No0
24-81No
Total:0.9%2.66.12.00.80.76.65.34.00.43.30.31.30.10.10.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo 1 Boston 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs Toronto+1.0+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.8
Tampa Bay vs Washington+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs Florida*-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Detroit-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Carolina vs Tampa Bay-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
NY Islanders vs Detroit-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
121-142100
120458-68317
118-119100
1174410-5831141
1164411-4821106
1154311-5803124
1144211-67031790
1134212-562521110
1124112-6546251400
1114012-743829018010
1104013-633835021010
1093913-7221037027020
1083914-614104012915100
1073814-788383321720
1063815-6463643121304000
1053715-7253062841905000
1043716-61324823625080110
1033616-7021710177320110210
1023617-6011110108382141402000
1013517-70061057403162703000
1003518-6038253861531306010
993418-7026133110124190902000
983419-60140123138526112150100
973319-70201141445312131903000
963320-6001007132431513214061000
953220-701031102268104180124100
943221-600017011911642011982000
933121-700050011123417224155100
923122-600300511121132523113000
913022-7001028015321272082000
903023-600101500231326271661000
892923-7000003001161928241341000
882924-60020012102228221031000
872824-70001000141224271993100
862724-80000000151424261882000
852725-700000261625251772000
842625-8000000281725241562000
832626-7000139192623135100
822526-8000141121272211310
812527-7001514242719820
802528-6000271727261541
792428-700131122292392
782429-60015162830164
772329-700292333257
762330-6001516323313
752230-700210283821
742231-6016224130
732131-7003164140
722132-601103851
712032-70063261
702033-6042770
691933-7022276
681934-6011683
671834-711188
661835-60892
651735-70495
641635-8397
631737-5496
621637-6199
611537-7397
24-60100
Total:001111532173315177776555443321