Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.5 to 43.3%
7 points   3 3-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.2
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto-4.7-0.4-0.4+4.4+4.9+5.4
-0.2*-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)-0.5
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.3
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 +0.2
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +0.2
Los Angeles 2 Buffalo 0 +0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-157In100.0%1004,897*
1235514-6In99.81000417*
1225414-7In99.210000721*
1215314-8In98.81001,206*
1205315-7In97.899002,051*
1195215-8In97.299003,444*
1185216-7In95.799015,660*
1175116-8In93.498118,903*
1165117-7In90.69712013,772*
1155017-8In86.59623021,119*
1145018-7In81.79424031,622*
1134918-8In74.79136046,312*
1124818-9In66.78758066,595*
1114819-8In57.7827110093,771*
1104719-9In47.57691410130,514*
1094720-8In37.069121810178,709*
1084620-9In26.8611423200238,681*
1074621-8In17.8521728300314,242*
1064521-9100.0%10.64220336000406,769*
1054522-8In5.5322137810517,927*
1044422-9100.02.523224112100647,417*
1034423-8100.00.916224317300795,224*
1024323-9100.00.3102044224000961,053*
1014324-8100.00.1517422771001,143,831*
1004224-999.90.03133932112001,339,856*
994225-899.70.011034361630001,541,851*
984125-999.3No07283821610001,745,518*
974126-898.1No042237251020001,946,039*
964026-995.4No0216342816410002,133,326*
954027-890.1No0110292722820002,301,536*
943927-980.8No01724232614410002,450,698*
933928-867.4No00418182821920002,560,658*
923828-950.9No021211252616610002,636,787*
913829-834.3No01861928231131002,672,078*
903729-920.3No005312242718720002,664,739*
893730-810.5No003171828251441002,618,705*
883630-94.7No001031123292192002,536,018*
873631-81.9No001016172828154102,415,771*
863531-90.7No000003102331239102,263,926*
853532-80.2No00001516302915302,095,072*
843432-90.1No00000210253322611,906,986*
833433-80.0No00000161833291111,707,388*
823333-90.0No000031229351731,507,077*
813334-80.0No00001724382551,309,813*
803234-90.0No0000418383281,118,074*
793235-8OutNo00212343813942,432*
783135-9OutNo0018304319781,923*
773136-8OutNo0005244625638,734*
763036-9OutNo0003184633514,938*
753037-8OutNo001134540407,322*
742937-9OutNo001104248317,974*
732938-8OutNo0073756244,718*
722838-9OutNo0043363184,653*
712839-8OutNo0032870138,442*
702739-9OutNo022375100,832*
692740-8OutNo01198072,860*
682640-9OutNo01158551,621*
672641-8OutNo00128836,091*
662541-9OutNo099124,942*
652542-8OutNo079316,771*
642442-9OutNo059511,114*
632443-8OutNo4967,405*
622343-9OutNo03974,770*
612344-8OutNo2983,011*
602244-9OutNo01991,834*
592245-8OutNo1991,190*
582145-9OutNo199677*
572146-8OutNo298397*
562046-9OutNo0100232*
7-55OutNo1004,744*
Total:43.3%1.0%33912888888876353,616,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayOttawaWashingtonDetroitMontrealNY IslandersPittsburghColumbusNew JerseyNY RangersFloridaPhiladelphiaBostonCarolinaBuffalo
157750-05.7%91069106676686721
133609-6NoYes
1326010-5NoYes
1315910-6NoYes
1306012-3No6733
1295912-414.3141414142914
1285711-7No7720777132077
1275712-6No388810388105135133
1265612-73.81010610139396112353
1255512-84.56658175211689510
1245513-76.599581453966831002
1235514-65.0811412116656795531
1225414-75.591171277665675632
1215314-86.4995101056667107910
1205315-76.0109510106566685821
1195215-85.7810611105756695821
1185216-75.99115111156665105821
1175116-85.9910511115566695821
1165117-75.7911511115666695821
1155017-85.81010511115666595821
1145018-75.61011511115566595821
1134918-85.61011511115666595821
1124818-95.61011511125555595821
1114819-85.61112512125555595821
1104719-95.61212512125555594821
1094720-85.61213413134555584811
1084620-95.61313413134444484711
1074621-85.41414414144444483711
1064521-95.41514315143444483711
1054522-85.31615315153333383711
1044422-95.11716316153333382711
1034423-85.01816316163333282611
1024323-94.91817317163322282610
1014324-84.81917317163322272600
1004224-94.71917317163322272600
994225-84.61917416163332271600
984125-94.51816516154333271600
974126-84.31815515154433262500
964026-94.21714614145433262500
954027-83.91613613125433252400
943927-93.51412611115433241300
933928-82.912106994332231300
923828-92.21074773322121200
913829-81.4753542211111100
903729-90.9432331111010100
893730-80.4221111100000000
883630-90.2110110000000000
873631-80.1000000000000000
863531-90.0000000000000000
853532-80.0000000000000000
843432-90.0000000000000000
833433-80.00000000000000
823434-70.0000000000
813334-80.000000
803335-7No0000
7-79No
Total:2.0%7.86.62.56.56.22.11.71.51.41.12.70.82.20.20.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.9+0.1+0.1-0.8-0.9-1.0
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)+0.1
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 -0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-157100
1255512-8991
1245513-71000
1235514-61000
1225414-799100
1215314-8991
1205315-798200
1195215-897200
1185216-796301
1175116-893511
1165117-7916120
1155017-88792300
1145018-782122400
1134918-8751630600
1124818-9672050800
1114819-8582570100000
1104719-9472990140010
1094720-837321111710100
1084620-92734131211020000
1074621-81834152252030000
1064521-9113116427510500000
1054522-86271662882080010
1044422-922114826123012001000
1034423-8115111021166016103000
1024323-9098121520811920040000
1014324-80551292111221510701000
1004224-903311419123218301102000
994225-8011921512618135015130000
984125-900601099121680182601000
974126-8004056107171122051002000
964026-900202310315134189151410000
954027-80010118110117141319382000
943927-9001006068108162061451000
933928-8000004034113141711191031000
923828-90002012911010152117820000
913829-800010017064151722168200000
903729-90000004031111020231682100000
893730-80000030106413222316831000
883630-900000100031614222317831000
873631-80000100102615222317931000
863531-90000000000271523241783100
853532-800000001281624241672000
843432-900000000138172524156100
833433-800000000131020262312410
823333-9000001513232720920
813334-8000000271727271651
803234-90000131022302491
793235-800015152930163
783135-900002102434246
773136-80001518343111
763036-9000312303817
753037-800017254225
742937-90004194333
732938-80002144142
722838-9001103851
712839-800163460
702739-90042967
692740-80022474
682640-9011980
672641-8011584
662541-901188
652542-80991
642442-90694
632443-80595
622343-90397
612344-8298
602244-90199
592245-8199
582145-9199
572146-8298
562046-90100
7-55100
Total:121223223333445455554444444332