Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.3 to 31.6%
5 points   2 3-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs
NY Rangers 4 San Jose 0 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Edmonton vs Tampa Bay+0.4*+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-157InYes1004,157*
1235513-8In98.1%991104*
1225514-7InYes100184*
1215414-8In99.41000337*
1205314-9In98.09911593*
1195315-8In98.19910987*
1185215-9In96.899111,663*
1175216-8In95.298112,742*
1165217-7In92.297214,266*
1155117-8In89.7953207,041*
1145017-9In85.19343010,872*
1135018-8In79.79054016,653*
1124918-9In72.78786024,748*
1114919-8In63.082108036,250*
1104819-9In53.87613110052,371*
1094820-8In43.06916141074,426*
1084720-9In32.3602018100103,953*
1074721-8In22.3512423200141,821*
1064621-9In13.9412828400191,074*
1054622-8In7.7313033600252,181*
1044522-9In3.6233137810327,347*
1034523-8100.0%1.415304112100420,354*
1024423-9100.00.49284317300526,856*
1014424-8100.00.152444225000652,281*
1004324-9100.00.022042277100793,241*
994224-1099.80.01153932112000949,934*
984225-999.50.0011343615400001,116,975*
974125-1098.4No07283719710001,297,404*
964126-995.8No0421372112310001,479,848*
954026-1090.4No0216342117720001,659,279*
944027-980.8No011029182213510001,836,365*
933927-1066.7No0172313232010310001,996,537*
923928-949.8No041782024177200002,140,083*
913828-1033.1No0212415242313510002,258,982*
903829-919.5No018292027211030002,345,785*
893729-1010.0No004141425261761002,397,164*
883730-94.7No002028192824123002,414,503*
873630-102.0No001014132528197102,395,704*
863631-90.8No001002719292613302,344,030*
853531-100.3No000001312253120712,251,002*
843532-90.1No00000171931281222,134,706*
833432-100.0No00000131328331941,991,139*
823433-90.0No000001822352671,830,141*
813333-100.0No000014163433121,658,490*
803334-90.0No00002113039181,478,387*
793234-100.0No0000172543251,297,074*
783235-9OutNo00041944331,123,685*
773135-10OutNo0002144242957,341*
763136-9OutNo0001103950803,250*
753036-10OutNo00063559663,539*
743037-9OutNo0043066539,594*
732937-10OutNo0022573432,044*
722938-9OutNo0012079341,184*
712838-10OutNo011684264,683*
702839-9OutNo001287202,927*
692739-10OutNo00991152,810*
682740-9OutNo0793113,614*
672640-10OutNo059582,925*
662641-9OutNo049660,160*
652541-10OutNo039742,255*
642542-9OutNo029829,339*
632442-10OutNo19920,358*
622443-9OutNo019913,727*
612343-10OutNo1999,127*
602344-9OutNo01005,941*
592345-8OutNo01003,764*
582245-9OutNo01002,397*
572246-8OutNo1001,468*
562146-9OutNo0100926*
5-55OutNo1005,308*
Total:31.6%0.6%2371055678991010948,792,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonTampa BayOttawaNY IslandersPittsburghDetroitMontrealColumbusNew JerseyPhiladelphiaNY RangersBostonCarolinaFloridaBuffalo
157760-04.9%688776888786662
131599-8NoYes
1305910-7NoYes
1295810-8YesYes
1285710-9No6733
1275610-10No251313132513
1265611-9No777713713137777
1255612-82.99612912691596333
1245613-713.066151526999462274
1235513-82.959109710938106963
1225514-75.4788889867787533
1215414-83.687775711667107462
1205314-94.66998481076767553
1195315-84.9788669967767572
1185215-95.6678787887767662
1175216-84.5688669977776572
1165217-74.6698679877667562
1155117-84.4698779977667562
1145017-95.0689779977667562
1135018-84.6699669977667562
1124918-94.7699669977667562
1114919-84.9691066101077666562
1104819-94.86101066101066556562
1094820-84.75111066101066556562
1084720-94.75111165111166556462
1074721-84.75121255121165546462
1064621-94.75131355121255446462
1054622-84.64141454131355446362
1044522-94.44151444141344336362
1034523-84.44161544151444336362
1024423-94.33161633151433337261
1014424-84.13171733161533227261
1004324-94.13181733161533227261
994224-104.03181733171532227161
984225-93.94181733161532217161
974125-103.74181744161532116161
964126-93.65171644151433116151
954026-103.35161544141333115151
944027-92.95141344121132114141
933927-102.4511114410922113131
923928-91.7488337622112021
913929-81.2365225411002010
903829-90.7233113211001010
893830-80.3122112100000000
883730-90.2011001100000000
873731-80.1000000000000000
863631-90.0000000000000000
853632-80.0000000000000000
843532-90.0000000000000000
833533-80.00000000000000
823433-90.00000000000
813333-100.000000000
803233-110.000000
793234-10No0000
5-78No
Total:1.2%1.75.45.11.41.44.94.41.01.00.50.51.90.41.60.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

SundayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton vs Tampa Bay-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124-157100
1235513-89811
1225514-7100
1215414-89900
1205314-998111
1195315-898110
1185215-997211
1175216-895211
1165217-792421
1155117-8905320
1145017-9858430
1135018-8801150400
1124918-97314706000
1114919-863191008000
1104819-95422130110000
1094820-84326160140010
1084720-9322819117101000
1074721-82228222211120000
1064621-914272442431040000
1054622-88242462553050000
1044522-94192392485080010
1034523-8114191221128011001000
1024423-9091414161512015113000
1014424-80591510171611732040000
1004324-90251451618318540701000
994224-10013122131861697010120000
984225-900191815101212110141400000
974125-10007041013713161153701000
964126-90040261331218415611031000
954026-100020131218178121016272000
944027-900100190513117121741351000
933927-1000100602813311158181141000
923928-90000401413189112018931000
913828-1000020021004411162217831000
903829-90001017021891923178310000
893729-1000000401043122124179310000
883730-900002000215132124189310000
873630-1000001001016132124181041000
863631-900010000026142224181031000
853531-10000000000261422241893100
843532-90000000027152425178200
833432-100000000013818252415510
823433-900000013102127231130
813333-10000000151425281971
803334-90000028192927132
793234-100000014122632215
783235-900002720332810
773135-100001414313516
763136-900029264024
753036-100015204132
743037-90003154042
732937-10001103751
722938-900173360
712838-1000042868
702839-90022275
692739-100011881
682740-9011386
672640-10001089
662641-900892
652541-1000595
642542-90496
632442-100397
622443-90298
612343-100199
602344-9199
592345-8199
582245-9199
572246-80100
562146-90100
5-55100
Total:111211232233223244555555555555