Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Beat Calgary 4-0, playoff odds up 6.1 to 89.5%
53 points   22 14-9

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Toronto 4 Calgary 0 +2.8
+0.1
Washington 6 Carolina 1 +0.3
Arizona 3 Florida 2 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Boston vs Detroit-0.3-0.4-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.6
Nashville vs Buffalo+0.4+0.0+0.0-0.4-0.5-0.5
Chicago vs Tampa Bay+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
Ottawa vs Washington-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2
NY Islanders vs Columbus-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.2
New Jersey vs Los Angeles-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
127370-0In97.3%982464,300
126360-1In75.01004
125350-2In93.894632*
124351-1In83.28515143*
123341-2In73.17921581*
122342-1In61.369312,150*
121332-2In50.0594107,011*
120322-3In37.44753020,844*
119323-2In26.23664057,132*
118313-3In16.926731142,421*
117314-2In9.917811335,466*
116304-3In5.2118720737,344*
115305-2In2.4690401,531,067*
114295-3In1.0391602,990,739*
113296-2In0.3190905,560,066*
112286-3In0.11871309,820,101*
111276-4In0.008218016,563,636*
110277-3In0.007623026,650,440*
109267-4In0.007030041,137,454*
108268-3In0.00623810060,853,441*
107258-4In0.00544510086,544,727*
106259-3InNo04553200118,297,272*
105249-4InNo03759300155,809,131*
1042410-3100.0%No029656000197,710,078*
1032310-4100.0No22699000242,189,964*
1022311-3100.0No167113000286,347,247*
1012211-4100.0No1170180000327,277,958*
1002212-3100.0No868240000361,526,260*
992112-4100.0No563320000386,499,070*
982113-3100.0No3573901000399,832,138*
972013-499.8No2494702000400,662,188*
962014-399.4No14154031000388,773,585*
951914-498.5No033590610000365,655,145*
941915-396.2No024620930000333,249,871*
931815-491.6No0176201271000294,504,703*
921816-383.5No011580141330000252,347,122*
911716-471.5No075001519810000209,675,671*
901717-356.2No0440012241541000168,962,578*
891617-439.7No02290925231020000132,062,842*
881618-324.9No01190521291861000100,065,319*
871518-413.7No00110214282713410073,601,557*
861519-36.6No006017223022920052,441,117*
851419-42.8No03031327291861036,252,536*
841420-31.1No01016193027133024,280,833*
831320-40.3No00002102431228115,757,442*
821321-30.1No0000141530311639,915,478*
811221-40.0No000001822352686,036,355*
801222-30.0No00003143235153,562,270*
791122-40.0No000172541252,032,393*
781123-30.0No0000031742381,121,952*
771023-4OutNo001103851599,418*
761024-3OutNo00053164308,285*
75924-4OutNo0022374153,349*
74925-3OutNo001168373,357*
73825-4OutNo00108934,295*
72826-3OutNo0069315,075*
71726-4OutNo04966,500*
70727-3OutNo1992,665*
69627-4OutNo298997*
68628-3OutNo0100376*
67528-4OutNo199147*
53-66OutNo100464,362*
Total:89.5%0.0%010423404432110005,601,528,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonColumbusPittsburghMontrealNY RangersOttawaBostonCarolinaNY IslandersBuffaloPhiladelphiaTampa BayFloridaDetroitNew Jersey
127370-04.5%0000251523215115426
126360-1No255025
125350-2No396251916399
124351-12.1131261018223633110
123341-25.73401651115174124334
122342-13.50260233101716483224
121332-23.8038030381413473213
120322-33.50510037371110362213
119323-23.015130442588242112
118313-32.916140512466231112
117314-22.817160562344121101
116304-32.617180593233121001
115305-22.528190614122110000
114295-32.428190615111010000
113296-22.427190607111000000
112286-32.4271805810111100000
111276-42.4271705514200100000
110277-32.4261615119200101000
109267-42.4251514624300101100
108268-32.5151314130400101100
107258-42.5141223636400201110
106259-32.5131033042500201110
105249-42.513842547600202110
1042410-32.512752053700302110
1032310-42.512561557700302110
1022311-32.501471161800302110
1012211-42.50138864800402110
1002212-32.50129566900402210
992112-42.500110367900402210
982113-32.510110267900403210
972013-42.411110167900403210
962014-32.421110166900403210
951914-42.332110064800403210
941915-32.25319061800402210
931815-42.07419056700302110
921816-31.88517049600302110
911716-41.58516041400201110
901717-31.27415032300101110
891617-40.85313023200101000
881618-30.532020151010000
871518-40.3110109100000
861519-30.100010500000
851419-40.100000200000
841420-30.000000100000
831320-40.000000000000
821321-30.00000000000
811221-40.0000000000
801222-30.00000
791223-2No00
781022-5No0
53-77No
Total:2.2%2.42.02.57.56.554.16.90.10.13.00.02.01.31.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto 4 Calgary 0 -0.5
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Washington+0.2+0.2+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.2
Montreal vs Calgary+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Boston vs Detroit+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
127370-09712
126360-17525
125350-2946
124351-183215
123341-273621
122342-161731
121332-2509410
120322-337105300
119323-2261064000
118313-317973010
117314-2108810100
116304-3568601010
115305-2248912020
114295-31289220400
113296-20186320700
112286-3008162011000
111276-4007391016000
110277-30064131022000
109267-400531710290000
108268-30041210037000000
107258-40031230044000100
106259-30212500511002000
105249-40132400563003000
1042410-30722005870050000
1032310-441900561200900000
1022311-3215005120001300000
1012211-41110042290018000000
1002212-3070031370024000000
992112-4050214200301000000
982113-3031344003630010000
972013-4020743004160020000
962014-30133800421100301000
951914-400131004019006010000
941915-300024003428009030000
931815-400017026360012071000
921816-30011018400013113300000
911716-400710400012319820000
901717-3004053500942316510000
891617-40022270054222311300000
881618-300111800231627219200000
871518-400011000282227188200000
861519-300060013132426178200000
851419-4003001514242517820000
841420-3001000161424251883000
831320-4000000016142325188200
821321-300000026152426188200
811221-40000002616262717610
801222-300000271828271430
791122-400000031023322480
781123-3000014143035160
771023-4000172340280
761024-3000315394210
75924-40018335520
74925-3004256650
73825-401177480
72826-3011177110
71726-40676170
70727-3375220
69627-4267311
68628-3160381
67528-4159391
66529-34753
65530-231628
64531-1176717
53037-001683
Total:0046001923002212003142211000000000