Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 2.6 to 58.6%
24 points   11 8-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)-0.4
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 -0.3
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs NY Rangers+0.5*+0.0*+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 +4.5
+0.2
+0.1
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 +0.8
Boston 0 Montreal 2 +0.5
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 +0.5
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 -0.2
Philadelphia 4 Columbus 2 -0.2
Colorado 4 Carolina 3 *+0.1
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 *-0.1
+0.1
Calgary 5 New Jersey 4 (so)*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-146In99.9%100928*
123479-5In94.397370*
1224710-4In97.4982116*
1214610-5In96.99721260*
1204510-6In90.39271413*
1194511-5In89.09181728*
1184411-6In85.889921,307*
1174412-5In80.1851322,263*
1164312-6In73.5801643,710*
1154212-7In65.47520505,857*
1144213-6In56.96923809,070*
1134113-7In47.7622711013,852*
1124114-6In37.6543114020,538*
1114014-7In27.94535191029,554*
1104015-6In18.73738242041,691*
1093915-7In11.72939293057,594*
1083916-6In6.62239345077,933*
1073816-7In3.2153739700102,922*
1063817-6In1.31034441110132,555*
1053717-7In0.4629471620167,919*
1043718-6100.0%0.13244722300208,045*
1033618-7100.00.02194628600251,842*
1023619-6100.00.01144233910299,189*
1013519-799.9No09373814200350,039*
1003520-699.8No06304120300398,257*
993420-799.5No032341266100444,909*
983421-698.7No0216383211100487,890*
973321-796.9No0111333517300523,696*
963322-693.4No0072736246100551,752*
953222-787.2No04203330112000570,242*
943223-677.6No02142735184100578,608*
933123-764.7No0191935258200573,839*
923023-849.6No006123131154100561,097*
913024-734.4No00372434228100536,598*
902924-821.5No0023163129144000504,367*
892925-711.9No011102532228100464,443*
882825-85.7No000518312914300419,974*
872826-72.5No0002112633216100373,315*
862726-80.9No000161933291120324,300*
852727-70.3No000312283419400276,860*
842627-80.1No00017223626710232,177*
832628-70.0No00031534341210191,800*
822528-80.0No00021029391930154,005*
812529-7OutNo01522402650122,178*
802530-6OutNo0031538349095,146*
792430-7OutNo00110344014172,497*
782431-6OutNo016284321254,266*
772331-7OutNo03214527439,920*
762332-6OutNo02164334628,681*
752232-7OutNo01103941920,277*
742233-6OutNo0734461314,137*
732133-7OutNo042849189,797*
722134-6OutNo022251256,399*
712034-7OutNo11751314,202*
702035-6OutNo11348392,684*
691935-7OutNo0845461,668*
681936-6OutNo641531,072*
671836-7OutNo33760627*
661736-8OutNo33265337*
651737-7OutNo02179216*
641738-6OutNo11881120*
631638-7OutNo118974*
621538-8OutNo109051*
611438-9OutNo59519*
24-60OutNo100888*
Total:58.6%0.6%241115141311976421010,421,780

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghTampa BayNY IslandersDetroitMontrealOttawaNY RangersWashingtonBostonPhiladelphiaFloridaNew JerseyCarolinaColumbusBuffalo
146610-05.0%163121415561877421
129-13050.0Yes
128496-6NoYes
127486-7No141414291414
126498-4No823158388
125477-712.56253813613
124478-63.815192388234
123479-52.91441620106417674
1224710-45.251161718571051033
1214610-53.10821411155815411520
1204510-64.60721412139516795100
1194511-55.80821416145615585100
1184411-64.31821314156616594100
1174412-55.30821415165617484100
1164312-65.40821415155515585100
1154212-75.50821516155515484100
1144213-65.50921517155515483100
1134113-75.501021717144414473100
1124114-65.401021718144414483100
1114014-75.501221818144413373100
1104015-65.501322019134413363100
1093915-75.201512120123312362100
1083916-65.301612221123311262100
1073816-75.101712322112211252000
1063817-65.111912322112210251000
1053717-74.912012423112210141000
1043718-64.81211242310119141000
1033618-74.62221242310119141000
1023619-64.54222242310119141000
1013519-74.4523224229118140000
1003520-64.3723323219118030000
993420-74.21023322208117030000
983421-64.11323420197116030000
973321-74.01723519176115020000
963322-63.82023616155114020000
953222-73.52321614134113010000
943223-63.12419611103112010000
933123-72.522166882002010000
923124-61.919125651001000000
913024-71.31483431001000000
903025-60.8952220000000000
892925-70.4531110000000000
882926-60.2311000000000000
872826-70.1110000000000000
862827-60.000000000000000
852727-70.00000000000000
842728-60.0000000000
832729-50.000000
822730-4No00
24-81No
Total:2.5%10.013.32.911.010.34.00.60.63.50.41.60.30.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)+0.0
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 -0.7
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -0.1
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 +0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125-146100
124478-6964
123479-59433
1224710-49712
1214610-597021
1204510-690271
1194511-589281
1184411-686392
1174412-5805132
1164312-6737164
1154212-7659200500
1144213-657122308000
1134113-7481427011000
1124114-6381731114000
1114014-72818341180010
1104015-61918362221120
1093915-712173632522300
1083916-6715335274305000
1073816-73122982875070000
1063817-61924102511701100100
1053717-706171221151101510200
1043718-6031113151813119203000
1033618-702712919162234106000
1023619-601310518164248209010
1013519-70282141562213301312000
1003520-6015191191718501823000
993420-70030571011228122460100
983421-60020341062192248110100
973321-70010128218942213161300
963322-600000161128618182126100
953222-70000307581121256112000
943223-60002043862124111751000
933123-7000102162171817221020000
923023-8000001051121120241872000
913024-700000030751921241451000
902924-800001032151425221241000
892925-70001010972026201031000
882825-80000000531223261883000
872826-7000002161625251672000
862726-800001028182624145100
852727-7000001310212722114100
842627-800000151324272082000
832628-70000027172726166100
822528-800000310212823113000
812529-70014142629197100
802530-6002819302612300
792430-7001312263120610
782431-600171931271220
772331-70031328321950
762332-6001822332681
752232-7004153232142
742233-602102836214
732133-70162138287
722134-600315363411
712034-700110324116
702035-6006264423
691935-704194533
681936-602144340
671836-700104347
661837-6063955
651737-713169
641738-6112772
631638-71981
621538-81684
611438-9595
24-60100
Total:112223334632778576554433211000