Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds unchanged at 99.99%
74 points   36 10-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Florida 3 Toronto 1 +0.1
+0.8
Columbus 1 Montreal 4 -0.0
Calgary 6 Detroit 4 -0.8
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay vs San Jose+0.0In+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0
+3.0+2.9+2.4-1.4-1.5-5.8
Edmonton vs Calgary+2.3+0.9+0.8-0.9-1.3-1.3
Dallas vs Winnipeg+1.2+0.4+0.4-0.6-0.9-0.8
Vegas vs Pittsburgh+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*-0.2*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
131-142In100.0%10097,246*
130275-2In100.01000068,280*
129265-3In100.01000100,990*
128266-2In100.010000143,319*
127256-3In99.910000191,933*
126257-2In99.910000247,780*
125247-3In99.710000145,015
258-1In99.710000159,243*
124248-2In99.510000168,021
237-4In99.510000190,401*
123238-3In99.010000191,835
249-1In99.010000211,446*
122239-2In98.210000198,386
228-4In98.110000240,077*
121229-3In96.710000216,654
2310-1In96.810000240,512*
1202210-2In94.610000201,667
219-4In94.210000257,788*
1192110-3In90.99900208,520
2211-1In90.79900234,755*
1182111-2In86.49901176,928
2010-4In85.49911237,340*
1172011-3In78.998110373,309*
1162012-2In70.196230323,999*
1151912-3In59.793340272,093*
1141913-2In47.989560220,981*
1131813-3In35.5828100172,885*
1121814-2In24.47411140131,480*
1111714-3In14.8641620097,006*
1101715-2In7.75220261069,279*
1091615-3In3.54025332047,196*
1081616-2In1.32828404031,809*
1071516-3In0.41828477020,490*
1061517-2In0.1102651120012,685*
1051417-3InNo522551817,769*
1041418-2InNo2175425304,386*
1031318-3InNo1125231402,548*
1021319-2InNo84340801,381*
1011219-3InNo53646122776*
1001220-299.7%No326511730369*
991120-399.4No114571891174*
981121-298.9No12472415191*
971021-391.7No3501919836*
961022-289.5No111626371119*
95922-388.9No11111156119*
94822-480.0No402020205*
93924-1OutNo1001
92824-2InNo1001
88626-2OutNo1001
74034-0OutNo17224327474
Total:100.0%82.4%95230000000005,919,388

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTorontoNY IslandersPittsburghWashingtonBostonColumbusMontrealBuffaloCarolinaNY RangersFloridaNew JerseyOttawaDetroitPhiladelphia
142340-024.4%3368151124206112
141330-150.025252525
140331-047.61010102452914
139321-121.04147201616254111
138311-224.34376101227198121
137312-122.9337917121919711100
136302-223.53371116112320501100
135303-123.333611141221215111000
134293-222.433510151222225111000
133294-122.933511141222225111000
132284-222.833611141322215111000
131274-322.633611141321215111000
130275-222.633611141322215111000
129265-322.833610141322225111000
128266-222.733610141322215111000
127256-322.833610141322225111000
126257-222.733610141322215111000
125247-322.733610141322215111000
124248-222.733610131322215111000
123238-322.734610131322215111000
122239-222.734610131322215111000
121229-322.634610131422215111000
1202210-222.834610131422215111000
1192110-322.634610131422215111000
1182111-222.534610131422215111000
1172011-322.634610141422215111000
1162012-222.63469141422215111000
1151912-322.33469151422214111000
1141913-222.33469161422204110000
1131813-322.14469181323194110000
1121814-222.04459201322184110000
1111714-321.75358221223173110000
1101715-221.46358251223153100000
1091615-321.08357271123142000000
1081616-220.89346311023112000000
1071516-320.61134634723101000000
1061517-220.2132343772391000000
1051417-320.3162243952380000000
1041418-219.5162334142470000
1031318-321.4182234242270000
1021319-218.418322413238000
1011219-320.0202344322150
1001220-216.818453402216
991120-320.120463462143
981121-29.92410533031481
971021-319.436113328363
961022-210.5162651626
95922-3No3311112211
94822-4No202040
93924-1No
92824-2YesYes
74-88No
Total:22.5%3.13.65.69.714.613.322.320.84.70.80.80.60.10.10.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 3 Toronto 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs San Jose-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
134-142100
133294-11000
132284-21000
131274-31000
130275-2100000
129265-310000
128266-2100000
127256-3100000
126257-2100000
125247-3100000
124248-299000
123238-399100
249-199100
122239-298200
228-498200
121229-397300
2310-197300
1202210-295500
219-494500
1192110-3919000
1182111-2861201
2010-48513101
1172011-3791910100
1162012-2702620300
1151912-36033304000
1141913-24841506000
1131813-336477110000
1121814-2245010213000
1111714-3154912318100
1101715-28451462331100
1091615-33361510265102000
1081616-212713152710304000
1071516-301710182515707000
1061517-20107201919121110000
1051417-35418132218216111
1041418-22216620244192330
1031318-31111315258214740
1021319-20811119122271180
1011219-304051813181018122
1001220-2328161111301730
991120-31410513401891
981121-2482537224151
971021-33839319198
961022-21116263711
95922-31111115611
94822-440202020
93924-1100
92824-2100
88626-2100
74034-003112831234
Total:8212212000000000000000000