Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 91%
28 points   13 6-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)-0.2
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 -0.1
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)-0.1
+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs NY Rangers+0.2*-0.0*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay vs Minnesota+1.6+1.6+1.3-0.5-0.6-2.7
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.2*-0.1-0.4
+1.5+1.5+1.2-0.8-0.9-2.5
Ottawa vs St. Louis-0.2-0.3-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.4
Nashville vs Florida+0.2*+0.0*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
-0.1*-0.1-0.2*+0.0*+0.1+0.3
Toronto vs Detroit-0.1-0.3*-0.1*+0.0-0.2+0.2
+0.1*+0.0*-0.1-0.2*-0.0*-0.0
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.1-0.2-0.1
Boston vs Montreal*-0.1-0.2-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2
+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1*-0.2-0.1
Washington vs Buffalo-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.2
Calgary vs New Jersey+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.1*-0.1-0.1
NY Islanders vs Pittsburgh-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0+0.1
+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.5
Dallas vs Los Angeles+0.1*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1*-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
129-150InYes100563*
128489-4In99.5%1000203*
127479-5In98.9991363*
1264710-4In99.4991628*
1254610-5In98.69911,036*
1244510-6In98.29821,763*
1234511-5In96.697302,896*
1224411-6In96.497304,440*
1214412-5In95.096406,816*
1204312-6In92.393609,953*
1194313-5In89.3918114,408*
1184213-6In86.18910120,249*
1174214-5In81.185141028,082*
1164114-6In74.980172037,598*
1154115-5In67.6752230049,212*
1144015-6In59.870255063,162*
1134016-5In50.563307079,198*
1123916-6In41.05635100096,539*
1113816-7In31.548381310115,903*
1103817-6In22.140421710135,713*
1093717-7In14.6324422200156,279*
1083718-6In8.6244528300175,307*
1073618-7In4.5184433500193,688*
1063619-6In2.0124138810209,153*
1053519-7100.0%0.88364212100220,427*
1043520-6100.00.24314517300228,903*
1033420-7100.00.12254523500233,184*
1023421-6100.00.011843298100231,733*
1013321-799.9No013383512200226,562*
1003322-699.7No09323818300217,438*
993222-799.3No05253924610204,228*
983223-698.3No0318373011200188,362*
973123-796.3No0112333317300170,370*
963124-692.3No0172634247100151,907*
953024-785.5No04203130122000132,017*
943025-675.1No02142534195100112,339*
932925-761.4No0181834271020094,629*
922926-646.1No00511303217410077,391*
912826-731.2No0036223324920062,873*
902827-618.7No00131430301651049,837*
892727-79.8No0118233224920038,718*
882728-64.5No00041630291640029,573*
872628-71.8No002924322481022,270*
862629-60.5No0004173130153016,588*
852529-70.2No0002102535226012,013*
842530-60.0No0161935291018,404*
832430-70.0No00213313516305,791*
822431-6OutNo018234023504,034*
812331-7OutNo014183832702,721*
802332-6OutNo21035391311,766*
792232-7OutNo01728422121,174*
782233-6OutNo032345262742*
772133-7OutNo031544326450*
762134-6OutNo11243386266*
752135-5OutNo9344513175*
742035-6OutNo4284722105*
732036-5OutNo321631338*
722037-4OutNo88384624*
711937-5OutNo31313816*
701837-6OutNo50508*
68-69OutNo1006*
671840-3OutNo1003*
28061-0OutNo100343
Total:91.0%9.1%14202317107421100004,150,580

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghDetroitMontrealNY IslandersOttawaBostonWashingtonTorontoNY RangersFloridaNew JerseyPhiladelphiaCarolinaColumbusBuffalo
150610-010.2%181041316613597611
138556-0NoYes
135504-7NoYes
134516-412.51350131313
133506-5No252550
132507-4No10201010201020
131497-510.7141471414181144
130487-66.6151038131081015522
129488-512.110123149314722231
128489-410.81112481661468671
127479-512.401012213155154124511
1264710-412.6011132151841341143210
1254610-510.511110413146155125411
1244510-610.809113151551451254110
1234511-511.6010123151441451253210
1224411-611.0010113141651451244210
1214412-511.4010113151651451244110
1204312-611.5010113151641451244210
1194313-511.0010113151551451144110
1184213-611.4011113151651451144210
1174214-511.2011123151641351244110
1164114-610.7011123151541441144110
1154115-511.0011133151541341144110
1144015-611.1012133151541341143110
1134016-510.9013142151541341133100
1123916-610.7013142161541341033100
1113816-710.7014152161531331033100
1103817-610.6015162161531231033100
1093717-710.601617216153123922100
1083718-610.301718216153113922100
1073618-710.301819216152112922100
1063619-69.902020116152112822100
1053519-79.912121116152102811000
1043520-69.712122116152101811000
1033420-79.622222116141101711000
1023421-69.23222311614191711000
1013321-79.15232211614191711000
1003322-68.87232321513181611000
993222-78.610222221412181600000
983223-68.313222131312171500000
973123-78.117212031210160500000
963124-67.82119193109150400000
953024-77.0241716487140300000
943025-66.1261414365130200000
932925-74.9241110354120100000
922926-63.82087232110100000
912826-72.51554221010000000
902827-61.41033111000000000
892727-70.7511100000000000
882728-60.4311000000000
872729-50.110000000000
862629-60.000000000
852529-70.0000000
842631-4No0
832329-9No0
28-82No
Total:8.7%6.517.517.72.013.412.21.88.61.66.81.31.20.50.20.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Minnesota-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.8
Ottawa vs St. Louis+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Detroit-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Boston vs Montreal-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Nashville vs Florida-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
129-150100
128489-41000
127479-59901
1264710-4991
1254610-59901
1244510-69802
1234511-597030
1224411-696030
1214412-595140
1204312-692160
1194313-589281
1184213-6863101
1174214-58141410
1164114-6755170200
1154115-568821030000
1144015-660102505000
1134016-551123007000
1123916-6411534090000
1113816-73217371130010
1103817-6221840216101000
1093717-7151741320112000
1083718-69164052332030000
1073618-741336825530500000
1063619-621030112685080010
1053519-717231423127012001000
1043520-6041615181610016103000
1033420-7021015121913120315000
1023421-6015137191532261070100
1013321-702103161452210201202000
1003322-60181121271915401713000
993222-700508891319602136010
983223-6003045972081236110200
973123-70010228318932211161300
963124-600101161137518162227100
953024-70000408571119255122000
943025-6000204376192410186100
932925-700010216216181624123000
922926-600001041101119251982000
912826-7000020651720251661000
902827-60000103213132524135100
892727-700011087192722114100
882728-600004210222620103100
872628-7000214132326189200
862629-6000016162425177200
852529-7000002818262414510
842530-600131021282211310
832430-70001513242819820
822431-602718272515410
812331-700312222922920
802332-60161526291751
792232-713922302492
782233-60141526331931
772133-702723302791
762134-65193330112
752135-54113134164
742035-6142034356
732036-532137345
722037-48214229
711937-5656631
701837-6253838
68-69100
671840-36733
28061-0100
Total:9514697528521735232111000000000