"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Beat Boston 6-3, playoff odds up 6.5 to 13.9%
79 points   35 29-9

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Boston 3 Tampa Bay 6 +7.0
Toronto 4 New Jersey 2 -0.6
Montreal 1 Carolina 4 -0.2
Ottawa 2 Pittsburgh 1 (so)-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Detroit vs Tampa Bay-7.1-2.5-2.5+4.2+5.5+5.5
Pittsburgh vs NY Islanders+1.7-0.2-0.2-2.1-2.7-2.7

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
9790-099.7%No226610100013,053,609
9680-197.6No0106002720028,625,850
9581-092.9No045103870088,781,994
70-290.0No0343044100028,499,758
9471-176.8No0130462120176,818,912
60-371.7No002447263016,220,805
9372-059.6No00184134600274,146,038
61-252.9No00133939800150,870,579
50-447.8No010384210005,803,829
9262-132.1No07254819100467,910,723
51-327.0No042349232072,029,077
40-523.8No03214925201,355,815
9163-017.1No03144633400483,689,291
52-213.3No02124437500335,026,124
41-410.9No0110434060021,023,373
30-69.5No019414270206,115
9053-14.8No01432511200692,719,197
42-33.5No0329531500130,439,855
31-52.8No03265317003,865,567*
8954-01.5No0119542410537,118,701
43-21.0No0116542810404,518,423
32-40.7No011452312029,816,282
21-60.6No0112513420431,259*
8844-10.2No0074742500627,278,933
33-30.1No0054346600123,281,330
22-50.1No00440487004,000,511
11-70.1No04375090027,062*
8745-00.0No00233521210389,115,661
34-20.0No002295513100286,786,234
23-40.0No0012656161020,694,399
12-60.0No0122561920292,970*
8635-10.0No000165426300355,804,701
24-30.0No00014542840064,171,924
13-50.0No001152325001,822,514*
8536-00.0No000744391000183,911,130
25-20.0No00642411100119,411,262
14-40.0No004394313107,032,280
03-6OutNo033445171064,784
8426-1OutNo0226462420123,434,570
15-3OutNo012346273017,438,310
04-5OutNo0119453150301,494
8327-0OutNo0012413970054,712,876
16-2OutNo00103841101027,033,720
05-4OutNo0835431310934,375
8217-1OutNo032348233023,963,412
06-3OutNo02194628501,933,551
8118-0OutNo01104337909,296,157
07-2OutNo00837411402,570,087
8008-1OutNo00221473011,995,865
7909-0OutNo0010414721,218,532
Total:13.9%No004010213223720006,411,499,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonPittsburghColumbusNY RangersMontrealOttawaTorontoBostonNY IslandersCarolinaFlorida
9790-00.8%8112403891000
9680-10.71944029356100
9581-00.62755023284100
70-20.63266017253100
9471-10.4336601217200
60-30.434760814100
9372-00.330650710100
61-20.32965058000
50-40.22855036000
9262-10.21943024000
51-30.11733013000
40-50.1153301200
9163-00.11122012000
52-20.1921011000
41-40.0711001000
30-60.07110100
9053-10.0311000000
42-30.0200000
31-50.020000
20-7No20000
8954-00.0100000
43-20.0100000
32-40.010000
21-60.000000
10-8No00
8844-10.0000000
33-30.000000
22-50.000000
11-7No000
00-9No
8745-00.000000
34-20.000000
23-40.000000
12-6No00
01-8No
8635-10.000000
24-30.00000
13-5No00
02-7No
8536-0No00000
25-2No00
14-4No0
03-6No
79-84No
Total:0.1%6.91.31.20.01.72.50.20.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston 3 Tampa Bay 6 -0.7
Montreal 1 Carolina 4 +0.1
Minnesota 1 Philadelphia 3 +0.1
Toronto 4 New Jersey 2 +0.0
Los Angeles 5 Winnipeg 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit vs Tampa Bay+0.7+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5
Pittsburgh vs NY Islanders-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
9790-00212627330010000
9680-10010144700242200
9581-000454600299700
70-20033400033111000
9471-1001129252121200
60-300123252226300
9372-0000018142734600
61-200013132738800
50-400101226411000
9262-10074214620200
51-30043194724200
40-5003318472630
9163-000311342346000
52-200211140388000
41-40011939419100
30-6010837421010
9053-100104264819200
42-30003244822300
31-5003224824300
8954-00011344338000
43-20011143369000
32-400110413811100
21-6001939391210
8844-10004294421200
33-30003274523300
22-50002244525300
11-70223442740
8745-000011540358100
34-200011339379100
23-400111383910100
12-60010364012100
8635-1000526452130000
24-300042445234000
13-5003224425500
8536-00001123935121000
25-2001113836132000
14-40019363815200
03-618323918300
8426-10032240277100
15-30032039298100
04-50217383211100
8327-000182938204000
16-200072738225100
05-40062438257100
8217-100211323517300
06-30019283620510
8118-000316353213200
07-200212313417300
8008-10031635331200
7909-0001522412820
Total:00000400371825211362100000