Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Beat NY Rangers 4-3, playoff odds up 1.4 to 96%
32 points   15 6-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)-0.2
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 -0.1
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)-0.1
+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs NY Rangers+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 +1.5
+0.2
+1.5
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 +0.4
*-0.1
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 +0.2
Boston 0 Montreal 2 +0.2
-0.2
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 -0.2
+0.1
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 -0.1
+0.7
Nashville 3 Florida 2 (so)*-0.1
Calgary 5 New Jersey 4 (so)*-0.1
Dallas 5 Los Angeles 4 +0.1
Edmonton 1 Chicago 7 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
134-150In100.0%100111,486*
133486-5In99.910007,543*
132487-4In99.9100015,306*
131477-5In99.9100030,098*
130478-4In99.9100057,090*
129468-5In99.810000104,857*
128469-4In99.710000187,666*
127459-5In99.510000323,321*
1264510-4In99.29910542,263*
1254410-5In98.89910878,004*
1244411-4In98.198201,388,142*
1234311-5In97.198202,128,758*
1224211-6In95.897303,180,729*
1214212-5In93.895504,620,057*
1204112-6In91.1937006,544,945*
1194113-5In87.6919009,030,525*
1184013-6In83.087121012,162,703*
1174014-5In77.283151015,985,377*
1163914-6In70.279202020,513,071*
1153915-5In61.9732430025,709,514*
1143815-6In52.6662940031,482,139*
1133816-5In42.7593560037,696,667*
1123716-6In32.8524090044,127,991*
1113717-5In23.544441200050,540,786*
1103617-6In15.536481610056,631,791*
1093618-5In9.228512010062,081,443*
1083518-6100.0%4.9215125200066,681,617*
1073519-5100.02.3155031400070,088,584*
1063419-6100.00.9104736600072,151,145*
1053420-5100.00.3642411010072,777,681*
1043320-6100.00.14364414200071,922,205*
1033321-5100.00.02294620300069,676,259*
1023221-6100.00.01224526500066,134,072*
1013121-7100.00.00164232910061,543,189*
1003122-699.90.0011363714200056,126,476*
993022-799.6No07293920400050,201,413*
983023-699.0No042239268100044,040,469*
972923-797.7No0215363113200037,881,661*
962924-694.9No01103134205000031,945,672*
952824-789.8No0062433279100026,432,278*
942825-681.5No0317293215300021,465,450*
932725-769.7No02122235237100017,082,645*
922726-655.1No01715332912300013,341,824*
912626-739.7No0049273320610010,218,679*
902627-625.7No00251933271130007,677,065*
892527-714.8No00121228321961005,659,016*
882528-67.5No00016213326112004,089,957*
872428-73.4No00031329321840002,903,816*
862429-61.3No0001823342591002,022,495*
852329-70.4No00004153132152001,379,698*
842330-60.1No00029263622500921,764*
832230-70.0No00015193630910607,118*
822231-60.0No00021232371420389,561*
812232-50.0No0001726402230245,357*
802132-6OutNo00420412960152,307*
792133-5OutNo0213383610192,832*
782033-6OutNo0018334216155,319*
772034-5OutNo005264422232,014*
761934-6OutNo003194529418,330*
751935-5OutNo01144236710,221*
741835-6OutNo01103742115,649*
731836-5OutNo063246163,012*
721736-6OutNo032749211,598*
711737-5OutNo2205127760*
701637-6OutNo1155232399*
691638-5OutNo95041170*
681538-6OutNo19434779*
671438-7OutNo7365742*
661439-6OutNo257516*
651339-7OutNo1004*
641441-4OutNo20805*
32-63OutNo100105,465*
Total:96.0%12.5%2028241474211000001,272,167,660

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghNY IslandersDetroitMontrealOttawaTorontoWashingtonBostonNY RangersFloridaPhiladelphiaNew JerseyCarolinaColumbusBuffalo
150590-012.2%01711141471371165100
142543-2No5050
141533-325.013251313131313
140534-27.1361471429
139524-313.8717217103101733
138514-410.81105231161677781
137515-38.6210141314613784710
136505-410.80281013157147145510
135506-312.301612141571451255200
134496-412.202912141561471154100
133486-512.402811151561461154100
132487-412.402811151561461155100
131477-512.202811151561461154100
130478-412.202811151561461154100
129468-512.102811151561561155100
128469-412.201811151561561155100
127459-512.101811151561561154100
1264510-412.202811151561561154100
1254410-512.202811151561561154100
1244411-412.202811151561561154100
1234311-512.102811151561561154100
1224211-612.102811151561561154100
1214212-512.102811151561561154100
1204112-612.102812151561561154100
1194113-512.102812151561561154100
1184013-612.102912151661561144100
1174014-512.002912151661561144100
1163914-612.001913151651561144100
1153915-511.9011013151651451144100
1143815-611.9011014151651451044100
1133816-511.8011114151651451043100
1123716-611.7011215151651451033100
1113717-511.7011216151641441033100
1103617-611.601141715164134933100
1093618-511.401151815154134932100
1083518-611.301161915153133822100
1073519-511.101172015153133822000
1063419-611.001182115153123822000
1053420-510.801202215152122721000
1043320-610.611212315152122711000
1033321-510.411222314142112711000
1023221-610.221222414141111711000
1013121-710.031232414141111611000
1003122-69.842242413131101611000
993022-79.662242413131101600000
983023-69.49324231212191500000
972923-79.113424221111180500000
962924-68.7175232099170400000
952824-78.1216211887050300000
942825-67.2246181566040200000
932725-76.1246151144030200000
922726-64.822511833020100000
912727-53.41847522010100000
902627-62.21334311010000000
892628-51.2822200000000000
882528-60.6411100000000000
872529-50.3200000000000000
862429-60.1100000000000000
852430-50.0000000000000000
842330-60.0000000000000000
832331-50.00000000000
822231-60.0000000
812030-9No00
32-80No
Total:10.3%3.71.817.418.913.413.42.611.22.67.21.81.60.40.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)+0.1
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 -0.5
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -0.1
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 -0.1
Boston 0 Montreal 2 +0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
138-150100
137515-31000
134-136100
133486-510000
132487-410000
131477-510000
130478-410000
129468-5100000
128469-4100000
127459-5100000
1264510-499010
1254410-599010
1244411-498020
1234311-597020
1224211-696130
1214212-594150000
1204112-6912700000
1194113-5883900000
1184013-68341201000
1174014-57761501000
1163914-67082002000
1153915-5621124030000
1143815-6531429040000
1133816-54317341600000
1123716-633193918000000
1113717-523204221100000000
1103617-615204441411010000
1093618-59194471722010000
1083518-65164111194302000000
1073519-52133515196504000000
1063419-61928191810806000000
1053420-5062022151411191001000
1043320-6031323111815113200200000
1033321-50272271917316410300000
1023221-60141831817717810500000
1013121-7002141151510171320911000
1003122-600110010111413194012120000
993022-7006067169236116440000
983023-60040341552483188801000
972923-7002022122218518131212000
962924-6001011911668141917350000
952824-7000000601041092320691000
942825-60000305210524201314410000
932725-700020318220151919920000
922726-6000101061149232116610000
912626-70000000409422182214510000
902627-60000002052171324221241000
892527-700000102011719262010310000
882528-60000001063122326188200000
872428-70000003161625251672000
862429-60000010281926241351000
852329-70000001311222722113000
842330-600000015142527188200
832230-700000027182726145100
822231-600001311222922102000
812232-5000015152728175100
802132-60002921312510200
792133-5001414283018510
782033-60028223325910
772034-50141531311530
761934-6002925352361
751935-5015183430111
741835-602132936173
731836-50172537246
721736-6041739318
711737-5214343714
701637-618324315
691638-53214926
681538-65224330
671438-75144536
661439-63863
651339-72575
641441-44060
631341-52575
32059-0100
Total:12718987646511433111100000000000