Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.7 to 73.1%
9 points   4 2-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.2
+0.1
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 +0.1
-0.1
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.2-0.5*-0.2-0.3*-0.0*-0.0
-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*+0.1*-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston vs NY Islanders*-0.1-0.3-0.4*-0.0*-0.2+0.2
Detroit vs Pittsburgh*-0.0-0.3-0.3*-0.2*-0.2+0.3
San Jose vs Columbus+0.2*-0.1*-0.1*-0.2*-0.1-0.2
Calgary vs Carolina+0.1*-0.0*+0.1*-0.2*-0.1-0.2
Los Angeles vs Buffalo*-0.0*-0.1-0.1*+0.1*+0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-159In99.9%1002,787*
1215316-6In99.010001,461*
1205216-7In98.510002,200*
1195116-8In97.799003,241*
1185117-7In95.599014,688*
1175017-8In94.598116,593*
1165018-7In92.498119,232*
1154918-8In88.99722012,594*
1144919-7In84.59532016,954*
1134819-8In78.99344022,528*
1124820-7In71.59055029,250*
1114720-8In63.28677036,939*
1104721-7In52.78010100046,482*
1094621-8In43.07512131057,664*
1084521-9In32.467161610069,308*
1074522-8In22.45820212082,894*
1064422-9In14.048232630096,864*
1054423-8In7.8392631500109,934*
1044323-9In3.6292835710124,893*
1034324-8In1.52029401010138,750*
1024224-9100.0%0.513284315200152,408*
1014225-8100.00.18254420400163,758*
1004125-9100.00.042143256100174,090*
994126-899.90.021740309100181,332*
984026-999.60.0112363414300185,895*
974027-899.0No083037186100187,886*
963927-997.1No05233721102000186,247*
953928-893.0No03173523166100183,172*
943828-985.3No02123021211131000175,925*
933829-872.5No172416241782000167,225*
923729-956.3No0419112223145100156,797*
913730-838.9No02136172521113100143,980*
903630-923.5No0183112226188200130,382*
893631-812.5No01516172625145100116,708*
883531-95.8No003031021282210300102,076*
873532-82.4No0010151526271761088,385*
863432-91.0No010029212924122075,585*
853433-80.4No000014142730185163,863*
843333-90.1No00002821322610152,703*
833334-80.0No0001414293217342,423*
823234-90.0No000028243624634,234*
813235-80.0No000151835321027,237*
803135-9OutNo0021232381521,207*
793136-8OutNo001827432216,267*
783036-9OutNo00420453012,105*
773037-8OutNo0021544388,957*
762937-9OutNo011041486,653*
752938-8OutNo01736564,798*
742838-9OutNo0531633,331*
732839-8OutNo0327702,427*
722739-9OutNo0223751,695*
712740-8OutNo0118801,112*
702640-9OutNo01386753*
692641-8OutNo01288510*
682642-7OutNo892326*
672542-8OutNo793216*
662442-9OutNo793106*
652544-6OutNo59587*
642343-9OutNo29842*
9-63OutNo100381*
Total:73.1%6.3%1410201676554433213,748,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupOttawaWashingtonMontrealDetroitPittsburghColumbusNY IslandersNew JerseyNY RangersTorontoBostonFloridaPhiladelphiaCarolinaBuffalo
159750-012.3%889867767566762
137607-8YesYes
1346111-3No5050
1335910-6No142914141414
1325810-7No5050
1315811-625.025252525
1305812-511.11161166111117176
1295611-88.79417441794494444
1285713-54.3151149114974114272
1275512-89.4148611427114651185
1265513-714.082793711958148532
1255514-612.9698775776899542
1245414-712.98666686751197681
1235415-612.28698686658910542
1225315-711.4868757797998541
1215316-612.3758766777898752
1205216-79.3858976766898652
1195116-810.4869966766898652
1185117-710.7869976676998642
1175017-810.5869867667988652
1165018-710.6869966667998652
1154918-810.5869866776898542
1144919-710.2869966666988651
1134819-89.8869966666988642
1124820-710.5969966676988542
1114720-810.19591066666998542
1104721-79.9105101066666988542
1094621-810.2105101066666998542
1084521-910.0115111155655998441
1074522-810.0115121255555998431
1064422-99.8124121255555998431
1054423-89.8134131344444998431
1044323-99.81441414444441098331
1034324-89.41541515444431098321
1024224-99.41631615333331099221
1014225-89.117316163333310109221
1004125-98.817317163333210109211
994126-88.717317163332210109211
984026-98.617417173332210109211
974027-88.41741716333321098111
963927-98.1175161633332998111
953928-87.7165151544432887111
943828-96.9155141344332776111
933829-85.9125121133322665111
923729-94.51049833321444100
913730-83.1736622211332100
903630-91.9424311110221000
893631-81.0212211100111000
883531-90.5101100000000000
873532-80.2000000000000000
863533-70.1000000000000000
853433-80.0000000000000
843434-70.000000000
833334-80.00000000
823335-7No00
813336-6No00
9-80No
Total:6.6%11.33.411.110.72.92.92.82.62.26.86.55.91.81.30.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit vs Pittsburgh+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Boston vs NY Islanders+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124-159100
1235415-61000
1225315-71000
1215316-69910
1205216-79810
1195116-898200
1185117-796301
1175017-895411
1165018-792611
1154918-8898220
1144919-784103020
1134819-8791440400
1124820-77218505000
1114720-86323707000
1104721-75327100100000
1094621-84332120120010
1084521-932351511610100
1074522-8223618219202000
1064422-914341942231030000
1054423-88312062362040000
1044323-94251992393070010
1034324-811916132114501000100
1024224-9013121516188013102000
1014225-8088171020121163104000
1004125-90451652014317620601000
994126-802214217156161050911000
984026-90111111213101214801223000
974027-80080791471612115460100
963927-9005035153151541571002000
953928-80030121311214812111426100
943828-900201100711127141651041000
933829-801007037143131491683000
923729-90000401314110913181572000
913730-80002011106413152115720000
903630-9000100803110919221682100
893631-80010050106412212316931000
883531-9000030003151321231893100
873532-8000100101513212318104100
863432-900100002613212418103100
853433-800000000261422241893100
843333-900000027152325178200
833334-80000002817262415610
823234-900001392027241230
813235-80000151325282071
803135-900027182927132
793136-8013122532215
783036-90001720332910
773037-801313303716
762937-90018264025
752938-80015194134
742838-902144142
732839-80193653
722739-9173458
712740-8142768
702640-9032077
692641-811881
682642-711683
672542-80991
662442-9991
652544-6892
642343-9298
9-63100
Total:675556445443434233332222211110