Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.004 to 99.8%
32 points   15 2-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus 2 NY Rangers 0 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay vs NY Islanders+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
+3.3+3.1+2.6-1.9-2.0-6.5
San Jose vs Boston-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Ottawa vs Arizona-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Los Angeles vs Florida-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.5
Buffalo vs Carolina+0.0*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Chicago+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0
Washington vs Minnesota+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Winnipeg vs New Jersey+0.0-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1
Montreal vs Toronto+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3
Vancouver vs St. Louis+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.9-0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
141-158InYes10016,607*
140527-4In100.0%10002,753*
139517-5In99.910005,409*
138518-4In99.9100010,240*
137508-5In99.9100018,110*
136509-4In99.91000031,770*
135499-5In99.91000053,866*
1344910-4In99.91000088,189*
1334810-5In99.910000141,027*
1324811-4In99.910000217,689*
1314711-5In99.910000328,941*
1304611-6In99.910000484,115*
1294612-5In99.910000693,859*
1284512-6In99.910000967,647*
1274513-5In99.9100001,318,131*
1264413-6In99.8100001,752,737*
1254414-5In99.8100002,276,013*
1244314-6In99.7100002,890,126*
1234315-5In99.5100003,584,238*
1224215-6In99.3100004,350,766*
1214216-5In98.9100005,169,592*
1204116-6In98.3100006,015,627*
1194117-5In97.3990006,846,571*
1184017-6In96.0991007,632,846*
1174018-5In94.0981108,335,739*
1163918-6In91.2972108,927,083*
1153919-5In87.4962209,361,800*
1143819-6In82.3944209,631,543*
1133820-5In75.89153009,713,825*
1123720-6In67.78875009,609,801*
1113620-7In58.383107009,324,236*
1103621-6In47.877139008,885,982*
1093521-7In36.8701713008,301,938*
1083522-6In26.46221171007,612,116*
1073422-7In17.15225211006,854,144*
1063423-6In9.94229262006,059,168*
1053323-7In5.03232324005,256,098*
1043324-6In2.12334376004,481,815*
1033224-7100.0%0.715344191003,752,137*
1023225-6100.00.293145131003,078,663*
1013125-7100.00.052847182002,485,289*
1003126-6100.00.0323472440001,971,026*
993026-7100.00.0118453060001,536,522*
983027-699.9No0134135910001,173,859*
972927-799.6No0935401330000883,036*
962928-698.5No0629421661000652,329*
952828-795.8No03224218103100473,444*
942829-690.0No021639171682000336,918*
932729-779.8No0111351419145100236,452*
922730-665.4No0729102020113100161,758*
912630-748.1No042261624188200109,505*
902631-632.2No0216312232515510073,139*
892531-719.1No0111161827231020047,521*
882532-610.3No0060311252917610030,465*
872432-75.2No0040161929251230019,170*
862433-62.3No02031226311971011,932*
852333-71.2No0101618312713307,247*
842334-60.5No000312273219604,364*
832234-7OutNo0172034271022,479*
822235-6OutNo021330341731,456*
812135-7OutNo192535246819*
802136-6OutNo1417363210469*
792137-5OutNo110393911217*
782037-6OutNo9254421126*
771937-7OutNo23473074*
761837-8OutNo25334340*
751838-7OutNo11434628*
741940-4OutNo25758*
731941-3OutNo50504*
721841-4OutNo67333*
32-71OutNo10013,980*
Total:99.8%61.4%76101130000000000174,316,636

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTorontoNew JerseyColumbusNY IslandersOttawaDetroitCarolinaPhiladelphiaPittsburghNY RangersBostonWashingtonFloridaMontrealBuffalo
158630-020.8%567977101010858711
150583-2NoYes
148563-4NoYes
147564-3No1717173317
146554-439.3741144184421441144
145555-322.7115558614145612382
144545-417.56788798119113941
143546-321.97788781099649521
142536-418.637996710811977521
141526-521.55589669911868621
140527-421.0567877101010857721
139517-519.857797710109867621
138518-421.3567867101010868621
137508-521.45778681099867621
136509-421.056787810109867621
135499-520.85778789109867621
1344910-421.057787810109867621
1334810-521.157787810109867621
1324811-421.157787810109867621
1314711-521.256787810109867621
1304611-621.057787810109867621
1294612-521.157787810109867621
1284512-621.057787810109867621
1274513-521.057787810109867621
1264413-621.057787810109867621
1254414-521.056787810109867621
1244314-621.057787810109867621
1234315-521.057787810109877621
1224215-621.056787810109877621
1214216-521.057787810109877621
1204116-621.056787810109877621
1194117-521.056787810109877621
1184017-621.056787810109877621
1174018-521.056787810109877621
1163918-621.05678789109877621
1153919-520.9567878999877621
1143819-620.9567879998877621
1133820-520.9567889998777621
1123720-620.8667889998777621
1113620-720.76677910998776621
1103621-620.676771010998776621
1093521-720.586771011887676621
1083522-620.496671212887676621
1073422-720.2105661312776675621
1063423-620.1115661413776575521
1053323-719.8135561614665574521
1043324-619.6144551816665474521
1033224-719.4164451917554373521
1023225-619.1184442118443373521
1013125-718.8193442219443272621
1003126-618.6203332319332282621
993026-718.3213332420222281621
983027-618.0223332420222181621
972927-717.8234332420221181621
962928-617.4234432419221181621
952828-716.8225442318221171521
942829-615.5216442116111161421
932729-713.9196441813111050411
922730-611.3165441510110040310
912630-78.212433117110030210
902631-65.7832285000020110
892632-53.2511153000010100
882532-61.7310132000010000
872533-50.91000110000000
862433-60.41000100000000
852434-50.2000000000
842233-8No00000
32-83No
Total:20.5%7.75.96.57.010.110.48.38.37.46.66.86.05.82.30.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

FridayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs NY Islanders-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Montreal vs Toronto-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
141-158100
140527-41000
139517-510000
138518-410000
137508-510000
136509-4100000
135499-5100000
1344910-4100000
1334810-5100000
1324811-4100000
1314711-5100000
1304611-6100000
1294612-5100000
1284512-6100000
1274513-5100000
1264413-6100000
1254414-5100000
1244314-6100000
1234315-5100000
1224215-699100
1214216-599100
1204116-698100
1194117-59720000
1184017-6963100000
1174018-594410100
1163918-6916201000
1153919-5879202000
1143819-68212402000
1133820-576165030000
1123720-668207050000
1113620-75825100700000
1103621-64829130900000
1093521-7373316112000000
1083522-626351921510010000
1073422-717352231821010000
1063423-610322462141020000
1053323-752723922730400000
1043324-62212113201250600000
1033224-7115171617168081001000
1023225-60912191220121112101000
1013125-705820721163134102000
1003126-60251831918613730400000
993026-7012161151811111260510000
983027-6011201015168161117210000
972927-700805102041716394300000
962928-60060262111518797511000
952828-70030131901018147118231000
942829-60020115061420414106731000
932729-700100100392411281111720000
922730-60007142309515121272100
912630-70004022006215101614831000
902631-6002011503011514191694100
892531-70010010010628162118114100
882532-60006003139172220115100
872432-700040101410182320125100
862433-602000141119242112410
852333-701000141121252111410
842334-6000015132226199300
832234-7002616242618710
822235-600281827271440
812135-7041223331981
802136-6016182628165
792137-50172838206
782037-613213529111
771937-71112442184
761837-852343283
751838-74143250
741940-413253825
731941-3255025
721841-46733
711741-5100
32063-0100
Total:611483621111000000000000000000000