Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Lost to Vancouver 1-5, playoff odds down 12.9 to 41%
30 points   14 12-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay 1 Vancouver 5 -7.2
-0.3
-0.3
Boston 2 Colorado 4 +1.0
+0.1
Florida 1 Pittsburgh 5 +0.4
Philadelphia 6 Edmonton 5 -0.3
Montreal 5 New Jersey 2 +0.2
-0.0
Los Angeles 1 Carolina 3 -0.2
Winnipeg 1 NY Rangers 2 -0.1
NY Islanders 3 St. Louis 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit vs Columbus-0.5-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.5
New Jersey vs St. Louis-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.2+0.3
Buffalo vs Washington-0.1-0.3-0.2*-0.1*-0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121-138InYes100741*
120426-6In95.5%95522*
119438-3In91.391946*
118417-6In78.08017282*
117418-5In82.58489160*
116408-6In81.984115332*
115409-5In70.2731710593*
114399-6In61.96522131,070*
1133910-5In49.55527171,853*
1123810-6In42.648312103,148*
1113811-5In31.438372505,300*
1103711-6In22.528413008,289*
1093712-5In15.12142360012,743*
1083612-6In8.8144441119,281*
1073613-5In4.7942481028,661*
1063513-6In2.2539542041,175*
1053514-5In0.8334594057,492*
1043414-6In0.31306360078,774*
1033415-5100.0%0.10246510000103,811*
1023315-6100.00.00186714100134,731*
1013316-5100.00.00146519100171,206*
1003216-699.9No01062262100210,680*
993116-799.6No07563242000255,908*
983117-698.7No4493854100302,886*
973017-796.3No24042663100349,507*
963018-691.6No13144596200394,517*
952918-783.3No12344512115100435,233*
942919-670.8No0164031216103000469,861*
932819-756.0No01034210201661000495,553*
922820-640.4No0626172023134100512,614*
912720-726.6No0319041626208200518,937*
902721-616.2No021302112527155100512,930*
892621-79.1No01801619292310300497,852*
882622-64.6No0400313262918610471,933*
872522-72.2No0200172030251230437,530*
862523-60.9No0100031326301961396,616*
852423-70.3No000017203127112354,302*
842424-60.1No00003132833194307,756*
832324-70.0No000172235278263,093*
822325-60.0No000415333514219,096*
812225-70.0No00029284021179,353*
802226-6OutNo0015214330142,799*
792126-7OutNo003154240112,389*
782127-6OutNo00110385185,979*
772027-7OutNo016336064,544*
762028-6OutNo004276947,015*
751928-7OutNo02217734,183*
741929-6OutNo01168323,940*
731829-7OutNo00118816,346*
721830-6OutNo099110,908*
711831-5OutNo06947,232*
701731-6OutNo4964,690*
691732-5OutNo02982,932*
681632-6OutNo1991,844*
671633-5OutNo1991,097*
661533-6OutNo199627*
651534-5OutNo199352*
30-64OutNo1001,196*
Total:41.0%0.2%03161813689987658,813,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealColumbusNY RangersPittsburghWashingtonBostonOttawaPhiladelphiaNew JerseyTorontoDetroitCarolinaFloridaNY IslandersBuffalo
138540-03.8%1351216551513339281
124455-4NoYes
123445-5No5050
122457-2No25252525
121447-3No404020
120426-64.599995141855145
119438-32.2213711213792713411
118417-63.746921126511757151
117418-53.11271313671710444274
116408-61.8145131377139539462
115409-54.01551114108148446353
114399-62.51551012108139536363
1133910-53.814610121110129546252
1123810-63.714511131210119545352
1113811-53.514511121212117546352
1103711-63.414511111313106645342
1093712-53.42451011151496654332
1083612-63.5245910161585753433
1073613-53.334499181775753423
1063513-63.333478191964862423
1053514-53.243367212153862423
1043414-63.153356232243972513
1033415-53.162245242332971514
1023315-63.1722342525321071514
1013316-53.1812332626211081514
1003216-63.0911222626111181504
993116-72.91022222626111180604
983117-62.91122112625101180504
973017-72.71232112524001080504
2916-92.71232112524001070504
963018-62.5134311232200970504
3119-42.5124311232200970504
952918-72.3124311202000860403
2817-92.2124311201900860403
942919-61.9104311171600750403
3020-41.9104311171600750403
932819-71.483311131300540302
922820-61.05221010900430202
912720-70.7311007700320101
902721-60.4211004400210101
892722-50.2100003200110000
882622-60.10000011000000
872623-50.100000110000
862523-60.000000000000
852524-50.000000000
842424-60.00000000
832425-5No0000000
822325-6No000000
812326-5No00000
30-80No
Total:1.2%4.61.51.30.90.810.19.90.40.34.03.10.22.10.11.7
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay 1 Vancouver 5 +1.2
Boston 2 Colorado 4 -0.2
Florida 1 Pittsburgh 5 -0.1
Montreal 5 New Jersey 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit vs Columbus+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
121-138100
120426-6955
119438-3919
118417-6782172
117418-583189
116408-6822115
115409-57031710
114399-66232213
1133910-5506270170
1123810-64353102010
1113811-531637023020
1103711-6226410270300
1093712-51564202906000
1083612-6954313011010
1073613-55440230117100
1063513-6233632722402000
1053514-5123042333304000
1043414-60124616442050100
1033415-500186114500703000
1023315-60012764561806100
1013316-5007733572811101000
1003216-6046125457117020100
993116-70250147852250402000
983117-613003612323205040100
973017-7020025152138150603100
963018-6010015161140351906200
952918-70108150137641110115100
942919-60003120029102111116103000
932819-700190020141191201661000
922820-600050111501621923134100
912720-70030613003215262192000
902721-600202100011923271761000
892621-700117000141526251451000
882622-60004000181927231241000
872522-700200003102127211141000
862523-6001000014122226201041000
852423-70000001513222519103100
842424-60000161423261892000
832324-7000027162525177200
822325-600002818272514510
812225-7000013102229231020
802226-600151426291961
792126-700027203127112
782127-60013122733194
772027-700172135288
762028-600314333614
751928-7018274121
741929-6005214330
731829-702144340
721830-6001104049
711831-50073459
701731-60042868
691732-5022375
681632-611980
671633-511486
661533-601387
651534-5793
641434-6496
631435-5397
621335-6199
30-61100
Total:00211010510125103067776544333211