Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Beat Philadelphia 4-3, playoff odds up 3.5 to 81.4%
15 points   7 3-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.2
+0.1
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 +0.1
-0.1
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.3*+0.0
-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)-0.5
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.2
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 +0.2
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +0.2
Los Angeles 2 Buffalo 0 +0.1
*-0.0
Nashville 3 Chicago 2 +0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
130-157In100.0%10036,558*
1295411-6In99.910004,651*
1285311-7In99.91008,250*
1275312-6In99.91000014,400*
1265212-7In99.91000024,870*
1255213-6In99.81000041,368*
1245113-7In99.71000067,575*
1235114-6In99.510000106,761*
1225014-7In99.310000166,961*
1215015-6In98.910000253,485*
1204915-7In98.39900377,361*
1194916-6In97.49910550,760*
1184816-7In96.199100786,819*
1174716-8In94.1981101,098,402*
1164717-7In91.5972101,509,785*
1154617-8In87.9953202,030,267*
1144618-7In83.1934202,682,248*
1134518-8In76.99163003,469,335*
1124519-7In69.38785004,409,521*
1114419-8In60.383107005,499,858*
1104420-7In50.377139006,734,113*
1094320-8In39.67116131008,096,609*
1084321-7In29.16320171009,569,288*
1074221-8In19.654232120011,090,766*
1064222-7100.0%11.9452626300012,632,571*
1054122-8100.06.4352931500014,155,786*
1044123-7100.02.92630368100015,576,352*
1034023-8100.01.118294011100016,855,828*
1024024-7100.00.311274316200017,927,202*
1013924-8100.00.17244421400018,737,661*
1003925-7100.00.03194327710019,276,483*
993825-899.90.0215393211200019,488,971*
983826-799.60.01103436164000019,378,047*
973726-898.90.0072737217100018,951,029*
963727-797.2No04213624112000018,228,877*
953627-893.4No02153326175100017,260,009*
943628-786.3No0110282423113000016,078,769*
933528-874.8No0162220271761000014,731,534*
923529-759.3No00316142624124100013,272,180*
913429-842.2No021182227208200011,771,379*
903430-726.4No0174152626155100010,266,257*
893330-814.5No004292128221130008,825,117*
883331-76.9No002141426281861007,457,783*
873231-82.9No001028202925123006,200,125*
863232-71.1No000014132630206105,077,026*
853132-80.4No00002719312712204,085,611*
843133-70.1No000001313273219403,238,516*
833033-80.0No0000017223427812,525,833*
823034-70.0No00000141532341321,939,769*
812934-80.0No00002927382031,464,585*
802935-70.0No00001521402851,087,943*
792835-80.0No000031538359795,308*
782836-7OutNo00110344114573,264*
772736-8OutNo0016294519405,690*
762737-7OutNo004234726282,560*
752637-8OutNo002174733193,419*
742638-7OutNo001134541130,394*
732538-8OutNo009424986,441*
722539-7OutNo006375656,267*
712439-8OutNo04336335,731*
702440-7OutNo03287022,532*
692340-8OutNo02237514,143*
682341-7OutNo119818,624*
672241-8OutNo115845,254*
662242-7OutNo010892,983*
652142-8OutNo09911,756*
642143-7OutNo06941,004*
632043-8OutNo0595513*
622044-7OutNo496329*
611944-8OutNo397162*
601945-7OutNo29895*
15-59OutNo10031,417*
Total:81.4%8.6%171221168654332110377,769,140

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghDetroitOttawaMontrealWashingtonNY IslandersNew JerseyPhiladelphiaNY RangersTorontoBostonFloridaColumbusCarolinaBuffalo
157710-010.5%4981067777999620
139607-440.02020202020
138586-7No4314141414
137576-811.1611661166221117
136588-511.46314119963631796
135578-612.038855959451111133
134568-711.439101548466771182
133569-610.8310997755612119620
132559-710.34991145658101010711
1315510-610.6310910566871099621
1305410-710.53101010666769910620
1295411-611.0499106667510109621
1285311-710.34109106667691010621
1275312-610.931010106766610109521
1265212-710.53991066666101010620
1255213-610.53991066666101010521
1245113-710.5399106666691010621
1235114-610.63991066766101010521
1225014-710.53991066666101010621
1215015-610.63991066666101010621
1204915-710.53991066666101010621
1194916-610.53991066666101010521
1184816-710.53991066666101010521
1174716-810.531091066666101010521
1164717-710.4310101066666101010521
1154617-810.5310101066666101010521
1144618-710.5310101066666101010521
1134518-810.4310101166666101010521
1124519-710.4310101166666101010521
1114419-810.4311101156666101010511
1104420-710.3311111156655101010511
1094320-810.2312111255555101010511
1084321-710.2312121255555101010411
1074221-810.1313131355555101010410
1064222-79.9314131444444101010410
1054122-89.8215141444444101010310
1044123-79.6215151544443101010310
1034023-89.5216161633333101010310
1024024-79.3217171633333101010210
1013924-89.1317171733322101010200
1003925-78.9318171732222101010200
993825-88.7418181732222101010200
983826-78.551817173222210109100
973726-88.37171716322221099100
963727-78.0817161642222998100
953627-87.61016151542222888100
943628-77.01114141342222776100
933528-86.01112121142222655100
923529-74.71099832211444100
913429-83.3877621111333100
903430-72.1544411111221000
893330-81.1322210000111000
883331-70.5111100000000000
873231-80.2100000000000000
863232-70.1000000000000000
853132-80.0000000000000000
843133-70.0000000000000000
833134-60.0000000000000000
823034-70.00000000000000
812934-80.0000000
802935-7No0000
792835-8No0
15-78No
Total:7.4%4.712.812.512.23.22.72.62.52.57.97.77.52.00.50.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)+0.1
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 -0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
131-157100
1305410-71000
1295411-610000
1285311-71000
1275312-6100000
1265212-7100000
1255213-6100000
1245113-7100000
1235114-6100000
1225014-799000
1215015-699100
1204915-798100
1194916-6972100
1184816-79631000
1174716-89441010
1164717-792520100
1154617-8888302000
1144618-78310402000
1134518-877146030000
1124519-769188050000
1114419-86023100700000
1104420-75027130900000
1094320-8403115112001000
1084321-729341811610010000
1074221-820342031920020000
1064222-7123321522410300000
1054122-8629218236205000000
1044123-7323191123103070010000
1034023-8117151420155010100100000
1024024-7011111615208114200200000
1013924-80771792211216410400000
1003925-70341642113417720701000
993825-80221321713715124010120000
983826-7011100121011111770132400000
973726-8000707714619102165701000
963727-70040341421812415911120000
953627-800201212113118121415351000
943628-70010019088127181771031000
933528-80010006044133171412157200000
923529-7000003022121139171714720000
913429-80000201190841815191472000000
903430-7000100060411491821157210000
893330-8000000402084122022168310000
883331-7000000201041513212317931000
873231-800001000202614222417931000
863232-700000001002615232417831000
853132-80000000000271624241772000
843133-7000000000138172524156100
833033-800000000131020272312410
823034-7000000001412232821920
812934-8000000261727281640
802935-700000031023312491
792835-80000015163030153
782836-70002102534235
772736-8000151935319
762737-7000313323715
752637-80018274222
742638-70005214430
732538-8003164338
722539-7001114147
712439-80173656
702440-70053263
692340-80032770
682341-7012277
672241-8011782
662242-711287
652142-801090
642143-70793
632043-80693
622044-70495
611944-8397
601945-7298
15-59100
Total:996667445533444332222211111000