Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Beat Chicago 2-0, playoff odds unchanged at 99.99%
67 points   32 12-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Chicago 0 Tampa Bay 2 +0.2
+4.9
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Nashville vs Tampa Bay-0.0+0.0+0.0InIn+0.0
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0*+0.2+0.2+0.2
-7.5-1.8-1.6+4.7+5.6+6.2
Boston vs New Jersey-0.1*-0.1-0.2*+0.1*+0.2+0.2
-1.0-0.9-0.9+0.8+0.8+2.2
Vegas vs Columbus-1.8-1.8-1.2+1.6+1.6+4.2
San Jose vs Winnipeg+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.5-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
128-137In99.8%10028,100*
127294-2In99.61000024,901*
126284-3In99.31000041,224*
125285-2In98.61000065,360*
124275-3In97.61000097,574*
123276-2In96.29901138,350*
122266-3In93.99901185,433*
121267-2In90.69802239,889*
120257-3In85.99703140,178
268-1In86.19703153,727*
119258-2In80.79505162,990
247-4In79.79505184,420*
118248-3In72.69207185,545
259-1In72.69307204,536*
117249-2In64.489011192,325
238-4In63.089011232,689*
116239-3In53.6840160442,761*
1152310-2In43.2790210248,776*
229-4In42.8790210197,398*
1142210-3In32.7720270202,427
2311-1In32.4720280227,636*
1132211-2In23.7650340171,966
2110-4In22.5641350231,650*
1122111-3In15.0571420170,119
2212-1In15.0571420193,117*
1112112-2In8.9481500317,256*
1102012-3In4.7402580266,592*
1092013-2In2.23226600216,568*
1081913-3In0.8243731170,012*
1071914-2In0.3183781129,679*
1061814-3In0.112382395,937*
1051815-2In0.08385468,387*
1041715-3In0.05385747,127*
1031716-2InNo238411031,799*
1021616-3InNo128116020,748*
1011617-2InNo117721012,980*
1001517-3InNo01712807,796*
991518-2InNo00643604,569*
981418-3InNo0574302,607*
971419-2InNo00485101,441*
961319-3InNo37621802*
951320-2InNo31672410*
941220-3InNo277111213*
931120-4InNo1980190*
921121-397.6%No197125242*
911122-285.7No861421*
901022-3InNo13888*
89922-480.0No80205*
88923-3OutNo1002*
67035-0OutNo36829462
Total:100.0%45.6%71128100000005,758,644

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupBostonWashingtonTorontoNew JerseyPhiladelphiaColumbusNY RangersNY IslandersPittsburghCarolinaFloridaDetroitMontrealOttawaBuffalo
137350-022.5%411011141416148520
136340-125.0502525
135341-014.314519105291055
134331-131.8329151414122192
133321-221.3317131517161010321
132322-123.1429111215141511520
131312-224.04110121514151493210
130313-122.541101314141414104210
129303-224.34191214151414104210
128304-124.3041101314151414104200
127294-224.2041101314151414104210
126284-324.704191214151414104210
125285-224.404191214151414104210
124275-324.104191314141414104210
123276-224.304291314151414104210
122266-324.204291214151414104210
121267-224.304391214151414104210
120257-324.204491214141414104210
119258-224.10459121414141394210
118248-323.90388111314131394210
117249-223.803118111313131294210
116239-323.703158101213121284210
1152310-223.5032071012121111842100
1142210-323.103267911111010742100
1132211-222.802336891099642100
1122111-322.50240578988642100
1112112-222.30247467777542100
1102012-322.00255456665442100
1092013-221.60162345554342100
1081913-321.21168234444342100
1071914-220.91173223333242100
1061814-320.81178122222142100
1051815-220.61082112221142100
1041715-320.42085111111142100
1031716-219.82087111111042100
1021616-320.62089000000042000
1011617-220.33089000000042000
1001517-319.32091000000041100
991518-219.4309000000042100
981418-318.63910004210
971419-219.820920003110
961319-318.1409000032
951320-220.23090000221
941220-316.45090041
931120-413.311926
921121-39.578352
911122-2No815
901022-3No137513
89922-420.080
67-88No
Total:23.1%0.22.727.06.58.710.410.710.29.87.14.02.10.60.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago 0 Tampa Bay 2 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Nashville vs Tampa Bay+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Boston vs New Jersey+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
130-137100
129303-21000
128304-11000
127294-2100000
126284-399100
125285-299100
124275-398200
123276-296301
122266-394501
121267-291802
120257-3861103
119258-28015005
118248-3722008
259-17320070
117249-264250110
238-463260110
116239-35431001600
1152310-24336002100
229-44336002100
1142210-333400027000
2311-13239002800
1132211-22342003400
2110-423420035000
1122111-315421041100
2212-11542104110
1112112-29391048300
1102012-353511526000
1092013-223011541200000
1081913-3123115220010
1071914-20171246320010
1061814-30121337451030
1051815-2080325581041
1041715-30503156731520
1031716-2202771427400
1021616-31023685579000
1011617-211160710615000
1001517-3010487174221000
991518-2000345242303100
981418-30233311344400
971419-200132330357900
961319-3513203272301
951320-2427226392
941220-30261635111
931120-419103671
921121-31925642222
911122-25576105
901022-31388
89922-48020
88923-3100
67035-0354394
Total:46250023500000000000000000