Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.06 to 96.9%
43 points   20 10-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Montreal 1 Anaheim 2 +0.1
-0.1
+0.1
Philadelphia 1 Florida 2 (so)-0.1
Columbus 4 Washington 5 (ot)-0.1
*-0.0
Carolina 4 Toronto 1 +0.1
+0.1
+0.1
+0.1
Pittsburgh 1 Colorado 0 (ot)*-0.0
-0.3
Los Angeles 6 St. Louis 4 +0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay-1.3-0.2-0.2+0.7+0.7+0.8
-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.2
-2.0-0.6-0.7+0.9+1.2+1.2
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Winnipeg vs Boston+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.1-0.2
Ottawa vs Anaheim-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Detroit vs NY Islanders-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
129-141InYes1001,166*
128415-3In98.8%1000343*
127405-4In98.9991757*
126406-3In98.89911,446*
125396-4In97.79912,709*
124397-3In96.59824,826*
123387-4In94.797308,461*
122388-3In91.3964014,288*
121378-4In87.5946022,899*
120379-3In82.3919035,385*
119369-4In76.38811052,949*
118359-5In68.48415176,866*
1173510-4In59.2791910108,264*
1163410-5In49.37325200146,237*
1153411-4In39.16730300193,663*
1143311-5In29.15936500247,181*
1133312-4In20.45141700308,410*
1123212-5In13.0434610000372,079*
1113213-4In7.4355014110439,135*
1103113-5In3.92753181100502,129*
1093114-4In1.72053222200561,077*
1083014-5In0.71352264400608,392*
1073015-4In0.29482976000644,654*
1062915-5In0.1543301110010664,820*
1052916-4100.0%0.03362916151100669,635*
1042816-5100.00.01292521201300657,174*
1032817-4100.00.01212025253500628,820*
1022717-5100.00.00151527295800586,012*
1012718-4100.0No01092731913100536,163*
1002618-599.9No06524301419300478,657*
992619-499.6No03319261825600415,215*
982519-598.8No21141921311110353,563*
972520-496.8No10913223518300292,628*
962420-592.8No00572034266100237,641*
952421-485.8No003416313312200188,858*
942321-575.5No001211243720400145,273*
932322-462.1No0117173728910110,582*
922222-546.9No0041032351630081,444*
912223-432.6No002625372461058,697*
902123-520.9No0013173531121041,472*
892124-411.5No00011030371930028,597*
882024-55.7No00522382771019,483*
872025-42.6No002153435122012,773*
861925-51.1No0019293919308,147*
851926-40.5No004213929615,136*
841826-50.2No0214373512103,191*
831827-4OutNo18304117301,935*
821727-5OutNo04224225601,092*
811728-4OutNo316393291617*
801628-5OutNo1931411620354*
791629-4OutNo524402460202*
781529-5OutNo2534291292*
771530-4OutNo241827391156*
761430-5OutNo436283225*
751431-4OutNo4343147*
741331-5OutNo33673*
68-73OutNo1004*
43049-0OutNo100876
Total:96.9%6.0%15281511125742100000010,582,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghDetroitTorontoNY IslandersNY RangersMontrealWashingtonFloridaBostonOttawaPhiladelphiaColumbusNew JerseyCarolinaBuffalo
141490-015.6%07866181212111162100
134453-1No25252525
133443-2No255025
132433-35.6661166281111116
131434-227.3599325141414
130424-312.3698911119175123
129425-214.7178551813121016511
128415-314.967681710151313312
127405-411.508956201015101051100
126406-311.90785717131411133110
125396-412.507957161114131141100
124397-313.00895816121512114110
123387-412.707957161114131141100
122388-313.108957161115131141100
121378-412.707957161114121141100
120379-313.007957161214131141100
119369-412.708957171114131141100
118359-512.8081057171114121131100
1173510-412.7081057171114121031100
1163410-512.6081058171113121031100
1153411-412.4091168171113121031100
1143311-512.209116817121211931100
1133312-412.109116917121210931100
1123212-512.1110117917121110821000
1113213-411.8110128101712109820000
1103113-511.6110129111613108720000
1093114-411.5110121013151497620000
1083014-511.3110121214141487520000
1073015-411.1210121315131576520000
1062915-510.9210111516121565420000
1052916-410.6310121617111554320000
1042816-510.4411121818101544320000
1032817-410.1511121918101443210000
1022717-59.961212191891433210000
1012718-49.671313191791232210000
1002618-59.3101414191691132210000
992619-49.0121514181591022110000
982519-58.716161516138822100000
972520-48.221171514118621100000
962420-57.82517151287511100000
952421-47.02916131066311000000
942321-56.0301311845211000000
932322-45.029108633100000000
922222-53.62476422100000000
912223-42.61854211100000000
902123-51.7123211100000000
892124-40.97111000000000
882024-50.441100000000
872025-40.220000000
862026-30.0100000
851926-4No00000
841826-50.0000
43-83No
Total:10.3%6.111.311.913.013.211.811.96.15.24.21.60.30.30.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Carolina 4 Toronto 1 -0.2
Montreal 1 Anaheim 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay+0.7+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4
Detroit vs NY Islanders+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
129-141100
128415-39910
127405-49911
126406-39911
125396-49811
124397-39622
123387-495330
122388-391440
121378-487660
120379-3829900
119369-476121100
118359-5681615010
1173510-45920190100
1163410-549242402000
1153411-439283003000
1143311-529303515000
1133312-4203139271000
1123212-51330434910000
1113213-47274461131100
1103113-5423449135101000
1093114-42184013148202000
1083014-511335171413404000
1073015-408282112177061000
1062915-5052023921110820100
1052916-4031323623151114101000
1042816-501821322183127102000
1032817-40141711919613123050000
1022717-50021301418911185071000
1012718-4019091413823801121000
1002618-5006059145251221543000
992619-4003035142231441786000
982519-50201211118147171410110
972520-40101801311101520152300
962420-500050781210242066100
952421-400003044126252211122000
942321-50001022103211918176100
932322-400111711613242212310
922222-5000401072522209200
912223-40002063211826176100
902123-500010311612262512400
892124-400000101072030218200
882024-50005313282816510
872025-40021720312510200
861925-50010312273119610
851926-4000161830291230
841826-5000211253221710
831827-4151733281430
821727-5021026342071
811728-4161829291340
801628-53826342251
791629-4031434321140
781529-52112436225
771530-4591836257
761430-5202416328
751431-414294314
741331-56733
71-73100
69932-8100
681236-1100
43049-0100
Total:691711510745732433111000000000000