Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 90.8%
21 points   10 3-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)-0.3
NY Islanders 3 Montreal 4 (so)*-0.2
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 -0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Philadelphia+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.2
-0.1-0.2*-0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton+1.4+1.5+1.3-0.7-0.7-2.7
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
+1.9+1.7+1.5-1.1-1.1-3.3
Columbus vs Dallas-0.1-0.2*-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.2
+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.1
St. Louis vs Carolina+0.2*-0.0-0.2*-0.1*-0.2-0.1
Toronto vs Vegas-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.2
-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*-0.0*+0.2+0.2
NY Rangers vs Montreal+0.1*-0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.2*-0.1
+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.2-0.1
Ottawa vs New Jersey+0.1-0.2*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1*-0.0
San Jose vs Minnesota+0.1*-0.1*+0.0-0.3*+0.0*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
130-157InYes100545*
1295111-6In99.5%991193*
126-128In99.91001,789*
1254913-6In99.610001,396*
1244813-7In99.41002,263*
1234814-6In99.2100003,409*
1224714-7In98.7100005,197*
1214715-6In98.0100007,410*
1204615-7In97.31000010,647*
1194616-6In95.4990014,974*
1184516-7In94.1991120,267*
1174517-6In91.6981127,221*
1164417-7In88.1971135,983*
1154418-6In83.79622045,897*
1144318-7In78.29433058,272*
1134218-8In71.69244071,588*
1124219-7In63.388560087,869*
1114119-8In54.184780104,795*
1104120-7In44.379101100121,535*
1094020-8In34.372121510139,734*
1084021-7In24.464151910157,790*
1073921-8In16.055182420174,684*
1063922-7In9.4462129400190,392*
1053822-8In4.9362434600203,260*
1043823-7In2.2272539910212,844*
1033723-8In0.81925431210220,088*
1023724-7100.0%0.212234517200223,152*
1013624-8100.00.07214523400222,112*
1003625-7100.00.041744287100216,986*
993525-899.90.0213403411100208,729*
983526-799.8No19353815300198,038*
973426-899.4No062840205100183,465*
963427-798.5No042239259100168,560*
953327-895.8No02153627154000151,066*
943328-790.2No01103226218200133,745*
933228-880.3No0062622261441000116,706*
923229-766.1No04191627219300099,564*
913129-849.1No021310242617610083,408*
903130-731.9No019517272413410069,055*
893030-818.2No005210232820920055,599*
883031-78.9No003151627261651044,692*
872931-84.0No010292229231130034,921*
862932-71.5No010151426291861027,195*
852832-80.4No000028203025123020,592*
842833-70.2No0014142730195115,410*
832733-80.0No002720322711111,327*
822734-70.0No00141528331738,328*
812634-8OutNo01924362465,778*
802635-7OutNo015183532104,071*
792535-8OutNo002123238162,791*
782536-7OutNo0172645221,915*
772537-6OutNo042144311,219*
762437-7OutNo01144441804*
752337-8OutNo01114047515*
742338-7OutNo73558354*
732238-8OutNo42967203*
722340-5OutNo32671121*
712240-6OutNo1217770*
702140-7OutNo118936*
691939-10OutNo188211*
682041-7OutNo59522*
21-67OutNo100354*
Total:90.8%13.5%2812241674322110004,230,956

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNY IslandersBostonTorontoMontrealPittsburghNew JerseyWashingtonBuffaloColumbusCarolinaFloridaNY RangersPhiladelphiaOttawaDetroit
157680-010.7%57111169587674573
140576-5NoYes
138567-5No333333
137557-6NoYes
136558-5No5050
1355610-240.0204040
134538-710.01010103010101010
1335410-4No22111111112211
1325310-514.37411771874111474
1315210-65.312714994161145425
1305211-58.853989881110483851
1295111-610.937615978106495462
1285011-79.95689678116585582
1275012-69.44711978599656573
1264912-79.457897661257105552
1254913-611.05889887117585542
1244813-79.848710677116795453
1234814-69.95789877117785562
1224714-79.648910677117775562
1214715-69.748810677117685562
1204615-710.548810767116785562
1194616-610.248910777117685463
1184516-710.348810776117785462
1174517-610.148910677117785462
1164417-710.448910777117785462
1154418-610.549910676116784462
1144318-710.248910777116784462
1134218-810.349911666116685462
1124219-710.5491011666116684462
1114119-810.14101011666116684462
1104120-710.14101112666116684452
1094020-810.03111213666115574452
1084021-79.93121313555115574352
1073921-89.83141414555115573352
1063922-79.73151515555114473352
1053822-89.43161616444114473242
1043823-79.32181817444113362241
1033723-89.22191918333113362241
1023724-78.92202019333112262241
1013624-88.93212119333112261141
1003625-78.63212119222112261131
993525-88.44212120322112261131
983526-78.25212119332112261131
973426-88.26212118333102261131
963427-77.98212018333102251131
953327-87.7920191643392241131
943328-77.21018181543372241121
933228-86.31116161343361131121
923229-75.11013131033351120010
913129-83.881010722231110010
903130-72.5576511120010000
893030-81.4344311110010000
883031-70.6122100010000000
872931-80.3111100000000000
862932-70.100000000000000
852832-80.000000000000
842934-50.000000000
832733-8No00
822835-5No0
21-81No
Total:8.2%4.315.515.514.73.73.63.69.53.03.05.62.01.93.61.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)+0.1
NY Islanders 3 Montreal 4 (so)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.9
Toronto vs Vegas+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1
NY Rangers vs Montreal-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
130-157100
1295111-6991
1285011-7100
1275012-61000
1264912-7100
1254913-610000
1244813-7991
1234814-699100
1224714-799100
1214715-698200
1204615-797200
1194616-695400
1184516-794511
1174517-692711
1164417-7889101
1154418-684132020
1144318-7781630300
1134218-87220404000
1124219-763255060000
1114119-85430708000
1104120-7443590110000
1094020-834381211410100
1084021-724401411820100
1073921-816391622130200
1063922-79361742361040000
1053822-853117623910600000
1043823-7225169221430800100
1033723-811813121819501110100
1023724-701291413247114302000
1013624-8076158261021651040000
1003625-704313424124171020601000
993525-802211119127141540911000
983526-711901410111020711233000
973426-80060871352210214650100
963427-700404414221125131181100
953327-80020221211511910171234100
943328-700111909814620147720000
933228-8000060551622012141262000
923229-7000402215116720141262000
913129-800021112010321121613721000
903130-700100805116715191583100
893030-80000502010391721171041000
883031-7000031051410192318115100
872931-80010201411192320125100
862932-70101001411192420125100
852832-80000001511192420125100
842833-70000151221242011410
832733-80000151322262010300
822734-70002615242518810
812634-8001291926251441
802635-700141124302281
792535-80016162830144
782536-702112433236
772537-601617353011
762437-701210293721
752337-8027224524
742338-703184138
732238-80104050
722340-5293060
712240-644056
702140-72575
691939-101882
682041-751482
21-67100
Total:141465894366224322111111110000000