Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 14.6%
47 points   21 20-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit 6 Boston 5 (so)*+0.2
Edmonton 4 Florida 3 (ot)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
San Jose vs Tampa Bay-3.2-0.0-0.0+3.6+4.2+4.3
-0.0-0.0-0.0No-0.0+0.0
Columbus vs Ottawa+0.6-0.2-0.2-0.9-1.0-1.0
Toronto vs NY Rangers-0.3-0.4-0.3*+0.0*-0.0+0.5
NY Islanders vs Dallas-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
119360-0In45.6%51490473,811
115-116InNo1008*
114321-3In5.61087371*
113322-2InNo3925281*
112312-3In0.52908825*
111313-2In0.1187122,744*
110303-3In0.11841607,991*
109304-2In0.007821021,664*
108294-3In0.0071281054,829*
107284-4In0.00633510130,739*
106285-3InNo05543200294,723*
105275-4InNo04650400630,098*
104276-3100.0%No0375670001,277,658*
103266-4100.0No02960110002,467,762*
102267-3100.0No21621600004,552,615*
101257-4100.0No15612311008,023,458*
100258-399.9No105730120013,554,725*
99248-499.5No651381400021,961,587*
98249-398.7No343442610034,182,342*
97239-496.7No23449210300051,199,109*
96229-592.9No12551215610073,776,947*
952210-486.3No01749118122000102,497,666*
942110-576.2No011441201940000137,256,923*
932111-463.0No06361202791000177,427,875*
922011-547.9No0327017321630000221,443,822*
912012-432.9No0219012342571000267,084,022*
901912-520.2No0112083033143000311,350,801*
891913-410.9No0070423362371000351,045,485*
881813-55.1No00302143331143000382,786,235*
871814-42.1No0010172534227100404,016,160*
861714-50.8No00100316323014400412,721,948*
851715-40.2No000018243323810408,126,767*
841615-50.1No0000041631301540390,764,675*
831616-40.0No00001824332481362,342,455*
821516-50.0No000004153132153325,301,012*
811517-40.0No0000182436246282,806,142*
801417-50.0No00000417343312238,037,166*
791418-40.0No0000210294020193,994,033*
781318-50.0No000015224330153,059,790*
771319-40.0No00002144242116,858,456*
761219-5OutNo00019375386,348,081*
751220-4OutNo0005306561,693,714*
741120-5OutNo0002237442,628,433*
731121-4OutNo001178228,459,237*
721021-5OutNo000128818,356,244*
711022-4OutNo0089211,431,097*
701023-3OutNo005956,859,277*
69923-4OutNo003973,972,847*
68924-3OutNo02982,216,625*
67824-4OutNo01991,190,623*
66825-3OutNo0199612,877*
65725-4OutNo0100303,791*
64726-3OutNo0100144,023*
63626-4OutNo010065,444*
62627-3OutNo010028,174*
61527-4OutNo010011,676*
60528-3OutNo01004,609*
59529-2OutNo01001,755*
47-58OutNo100474,713*
Total:14.6%0.0%00280491213131211975,716,338,660

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupColumbusWashingtonPittsburghMontrealNY RangersTorontoOttawaCarolinaBostonPhiladelphiaNY IslandersFloridaBuffaloDetroitNew Jersey
119360-00.7%011013658234551001
116341-1NoYes
115331-2No147114
114321-31.41304434111311
113322-20.42222056429110
112312-31.012200557381110000
111313-20.51218153948211000
110303-30.5121814911572110000
109304-20.5121614714663110000
108294-30.6121624218863110000
107284-40.51214337221054111000
106285-30.51212432261244001000
105275-40.51110527311345001000
104276-30.5119722351536001000
103266-40.5117817381726001100
102267-30.50151013411927001110
101257-40.5114129442018001110
100258-30.5113136452118001110
99248-40.5222134452108001110
98249-30.5331142442008001110
97239-40.4541131421908001110
96229-50.4861121391707001110
952210-40.41071100341507001110
219-60.41071100341506001110
942110-50.3118180281205001100
2211-30.3118190291306001110
209-70.3118180271205001100
932111-40.311816023904001000
2010-60.211816021904001000
2212-20.311816023904001000
922011-50.29614016603000000
2112-30.29715018703000000
1910-70.29614016603000000
912012-40.17513012402000000
1911-60.17513011402000000
901912-50.1430207201000000
891913-40.0210104101000000
881914-30.0110002100000000
871814-40.0000001000000000
861815-30.000000000000000
851715-40.0000000000000
841716-30.000000000000
831616-40.000000000000
821617-30.000000000000
811517-40.00000000000
801518-30.000000
791418-40.00000
781318-5No0
771319-4No0
47-76No
Total:0.1%2.11.50.31.60.15.62.30.01.00.00.00.10.10.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 6 Boston 5 (so)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose vs Tampa Bay+0.7-0.0-0.0-0.8-0.9-0.9
Columbus vs Ottawa-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Toronto vs NY Rangers+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
119360-046649000
115-116100
114321-364873
113322-2391132
112312-30287245
111313-201843210
110303-30078620130
109304-200708201900
108294-300591210270000
107284-400481610340010
106285-3036180042010200
105275-4026200049110300
104276-301721005421060000
103266-40101900564101000000
102267-3516005571015000000
101257-42130049121022010100
100258-31900391800290102000
99248-406002823003701040000
98249-30301726004312060100
97239-402092500454201003000
96229-50142100437101506100
952210-40021600371210180122000
942110-500111002716102011940000
932111-40006001719001822791000
922011-500300101800133321730000
912012-40020415008432268100000
901912-500102100044263217410000
891913-4000016001317322611300000
881813-500003000182431218200000
871814-40000100013142728187200000
861714-500010001617272616620000
851715-40000000271827241461000
841615-500000000291927231351000
831616-400000001310212722124100
821516-5000000141223282110200
811517-40000001514252818610
801417-5000000271829271430
791418-4000000310243224700
781318-500000151631331400
771319-4000002925392500
761219-50000418403710
751220-40000211375010
741120-500016306130
731121-40003227050
721021-50001157680
711022-4000977120
701023-300676181
69923-400372241
68924-300265312
67824-40158384
66825-30049446
65725-40405010
64726-30325315
63626-40245521
62627-30175528
61527-4125236
60528-384844
59529-2054252
58429-333364
57430-212871
56330-32179
55230-42575
53-54100
47036-00100
Total:000000120044003189988877665400