Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.002 to 99.5%
64 points   30 14-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Colorado 3 Boston 2 (so)*+0.0
Anaheim 6 Calgary 3 -0.1
Pittsburgh 2 Chicago 3 (so)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Carolina vs Tampa Bay-0.4-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2
-2.5-0.9-0.9+1.1+1.4+1.4
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Florida vs Detroit-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
+0.1*+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Winnipeg-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Montreal vs Dallas-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Colorado-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.3+0.3+0.9
Vancouver vs Anaheim+0.2*+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.2
NY Islanders vs NY Rangers+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
127-132InYes10011,529*
126302-2In99.6%10004,043*
125303-1In99.2100010,091*
124293-2In98.71000023,745*
123283-3In97.61000051,055*
122284-2In95.79910103,351*
121274-3In92.99910193,680*
120275-2In88.79820346,981*
119265-3In82.596300581,854*
118266-2In74.2945100929,927*
117256-3In63.59082001,411,809*
116257-2In51.285123002,043,577*
115247-3In38.177175002,825,279*
114248-2In25.668238003,735,212*
113238-3In15.257301200004,734,312*
112239-2In7.745361711005,766,667*
111229-3In3.333412232006,747,680*
110219-4In1.122432663007,600,314*
1092110-3In0.3134228106008,239,740*
1082010-4In0.1738281791008,604,067*
1072011-3In0.03322425132008,672,394*
1061911-4In0.01251932184008,438,461*
1051912-3In0.00181338219107,923,025*
1041812-4100.0%No01273923162007,187,275*
1031813-3100.0No0743722263006,295,373*
1021713-4100.0No0423119375105,335,297*
1011714-3100.0No02125144783004,374,146*
1001614-499.9No010181054116003,470,238*
991615-399.6No00126571411002,657,386*
981515-498.9No0073551519101,970,922*
971516-397.3No00414915283001,412,799*
961416-494.1No0021411338600983,737*
951417-388.7No0103111461110660,101*
941317-480.5No000228501820429,019*
931318-369.8No00155502640268,905*
921218-456.8No00934535800163,256*
911219-343.5No0513742141096,048*
901119-430.5No0212745223055,045*
891120-319.6No1018433170030,083*
881020-411.3No00113738121015,919*
871021-35.9No006294319307,906*
86921-42.5No002194129714,102*
85922-31.0No11136391111,851*
84923-20.2No0628412230882*
83823-30.3No0317363581386*
82723-4OutNo283735172127*
81724-3OutNo6304216650*
80624-4OutNo2544191316*
79625-3OutNo3850138*
78525-4OutNo1001
77627-1OutNo3333333*
64034-0OutNo038989,486
Total:99.5%6.4%1923141710122200000000125,976,580

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNY IslandersNY RangersDetroitMontrealPittsburghWashingtonBostonOttawaFloridaTorontoPhiladelphiaColumbusNew JerseyCarolinaBuffalo
132340-011.2%11653942151043110
131330-116.717175017
130331-013.837734521103
129321-115.71127355316363
128311-211.61156494114123311
127312-112.722454104213114300
126302-211.312553114114114200
125303-111.4125541140141142010
124293-211.6125541140141142000
123283-311.5125541140141142000
122284-211.6225541240141142000
121274-311.6225541240131142000
120275-211.62255412391311420000
119265-311.62255513391311420000
118266-211.52255514381311420000
117256-311.42355615371210320000
116257-211.33355716351110320000
115247-311.2345581833109310000
114248-211.044659203098310000
113238-310.9556610222787210000
112239-210.6677612232376210000
111229-310.3788714242055110000
110219-410.1998816251644100000
1092110-39.810119917241333100000
1082010-49.61212101018231022000000
1072011-39.3131411101922822000000
1061911-49.0141511112020611000000
1051912-38.8161611112119511000000
1041812-48.6171712112117401000000
1031813-38.4181812112116300000000
1021713-48.2191912122114200000000
1011714-38.0202012122013200000000
1001614-47.9202113132011200000000
991615-37.7212114141810100000000
981515-47.621211515179100000000
971516-37.421211516167100000000
961416-47.121211516146100000000
951417-36.620201516125100000000
941317-46.019181415114000000000
931318-35.1171612139300000000
921218-44.113131011720000000
911219-33.110108952000000
901119-42.2776631000
891120-31.5544421000
881121-20.93223100
871021-30.411111000
861022-20.2111100
85922-30.1000000
84923-2No00
83722-50.30
64-82No
Total:9.4%12.412.99.99.516.618.912.03.12.90.80.40.10.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Colorado 3 Boston 2 (so)-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Carolina vs Tampa Bay+0.7+0.2+0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4
Montreal vs Dallas+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Florida vs Detroit-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
127-132100
126302-210000
125303-19910
124293-299100
123283-398200
122284-296410
121274-393610
120275-2899200
119265-3821430000
118266-27420501000
117256-36427802000
116257-251341203000
115247-338391715000
114248-2264322181000
113238-31542273102000000
112239-2837306134101000
111229-33303110157302000
110219-412128151412603000
1092110-3013231912161005100
1082010-40717218201707210000
1072011-30311215202419420000
1061911-40171821730211740000
1051912-300315112335101190100
1041812-40211073278151602000
1031813-301704261051726030000
1021713-400402191231636141100
1011714-3002011212113443633000
1001614-40010071109487756000
991615-3000390645127711000
981515-4000160337186918110
971516-30004012722411262300
961416-40002011724211326600
951417-3001092219341210100
941317-4000041807292116300
931318-3000213052129227100
921218-4000903123225143000
911219-30050163124229200
901119-400212251827186100
891120-301011811262613300
881020-400001152030238200
871021-30006212273016510
86921-40021520312612300
85922-31021025322171
84923-20151529301540
83823-3019183227112
82723-43928352222
81724-38163230122
80624-4252525196
79625-325135013
78525-4100
77627-16733
64034-001350342
Total:61213105814345112112000000000000000