Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.7 to 73.8%
9 points   4 2-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.2
+0.1
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 +0.1
-0.1
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.1-0.2-0.2*-0.2-0.3*-0.0
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)-0.5
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.2
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 +0.2
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +0.2
Los Angeles 2 Buffalo 0 +0.1
*-0.0
Nashville 3 Chicago 2 +0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-159In99.9%1001,763*
1245414-7In99.71000790*
1235314-8In99.41001,273*
1225315-7In99.4100002,019*
1215215-8In98.5100003,128*
1205216-7In98.2100004,665*
1195116-8In97.199006,756*
1185117-7In96.299119,886*
1175017-8In94.1981114,175*
1165018-7In91.9981119,495*
1154918-8In87.89622026,808*
1144919-7In82.99433035,695*
1134819-8In77.09244046,995*
1124820-7In69.18966060,628*
1114720-8In60.784880077,988*
1104721-7In50.37911100096,643*
1094621-8In39.872141410118,569*
1084622-7In29.564171710142,340*
1074522-8In19.9552122200169,197*
1064422-9In12.2452527300197,523*
1054423-8In6.5362732500226,441*
1044323-9100.0%3.02729367100256,297*
1034324-8100.01.118294111100284,324*
1024224-9100.00.312284315200309,772*
1014225-8100.00.17254420400332,154*
1004125-9100.00.032043266100350,791*
994126-899.90.0216403110200365,609*
984026-999.6No1113535143000375,284*
974027-898.9No0829371861000377,340*
963927-997.1No05233721103000374,696*
953928-892.9No031735221661000365,094*
943828-985.0No0112312121113100350,905*
933829-872.7No0172516241782000333,920*
923729-956.5No04191122231451000310,686*
913730-839.5No02136182521103100285,017*
903630-924.3No0183122326187200257,641*
893631-813.2No01516172725134100228,833*
883531-96.4No00303112328219200201,291*
873532-82.8No00101616272715510174,006*
863432-91.1No00100310223023920148,231*
853433-80.5No0000151629291640123,546*
843333-90.2No000021024322371101,935*
833334-80.1No0001517323013282,745*
823234-90.0No000211283520367,197*
813235-80.0No00016223727652,178*
803135-9OutNo0041636341040,577*
793136-8OutNo0021032401531,557*
783036-9OutNo001726452223,399*
773037-8OutNo00421462917,408*
762937-9OutNo0215463712,730*
752938-8OutNo011142459,040*
742838-9OutNo01740526,330*
732839-8OutNo0435614,562*
722739-9OutNo0329683,054*
712740-8OutNo224742,036*
702640-9OutNo120791,317*
692641-8OutNo11485937*
682642-7OutNo1288597*
672542-8OutNo0892357*
662442-9OutNo793230*
652443-8OutNo694165*
642343-9OutNo49682*
632445-6OutNo29856*
9-62OutNo100677*
Total:73.8%6.1%1310201776654432217,527,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupOttawaWashingtonDetroitMontrealColumbusNY IslandersPittsburghNew JerseyNY RangersTorontoFloridaPhiladelphiaBostonCarolinaBuffalo
159750-09.5%889967778787621
1366210-3NoYes
135598-8NoYes
1346010-5NoYes
1335910-6No333333
1325911-5No999361899
1315710-816.711116111766116611
1305812-58.7261399134444444
1295712-618.4126146426861046122
1285612-715.810911558498597371
1275512-89.27659105776996841
1265513-710.357757810751194941
1255514-610.98489779761176651
1245414-78.4978776677687931
1235314-89.9979975677888641
1225315-79.9867967778887731
1215215-810.3859967777986831
1205216-79.3869967777886831
1195116-810.0878877777986831
1185117-710.7878877767896831
1175017-810.4868977777986831
1165018-710.4869966777986831
1154918-810.6868966777986831
1144919-710.1969966777986831
1134819-810.4969967777986831
1124820-710.4969966676986831
1114720-810.196101066776986731
1104721-710.1106101066666985731
1094621-810.0106111166666985731
1084622-710.0115111156666985731
1074522-89.7125121255555985721
1064422-99.7135131355555984721
1054423-89.51441414455541084721
1044323-99.41541515444441083721
1034324-89.31641616444431093711
1024224-99.11731716333331093711
1014225-88.91731717333331092711
1004125-98.81831817333321092711
994126-88.61831818333321092711
984026-98.31831818333221092711
974027-88.31841817333321091711
963927-98.0174171744332981701
953928-87.5165161644332971601
943828-96.7155141444332761500
933829-85.8135121244322651400
923729-94.41049933221441300
913730-83.1737622211320200
903630-91.9424421110210100
893631-81.0212211100110100
883531-90.5101100000000000
873532-80.2101100000000000
863533-70.1000000000000000
853433-80.000000000000000
843434-70.00000000000000
833334-80.0000000
823335-7No0000
813235-8No00
9-80No
Total:6.5%11.73.411.711.53.23.12.92.72.37.06.11.95.10.90.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Toronto-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)+0.1
Boston 2 NY Islanders 3 -0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-159100
1255514-61000
1245414-710000
1235314-8991
1225315-799000
1215215-898100
1205216-798100
1195116-897200
1185117-796311
1175017-894411
1165018-792611
1154918-88882200
1144919-7831130300
1134819-8771540400
1124820-76919605000
1114720-861248070000
1104721-75029100100000
1094621-84032131130010
1084622-730351611610100
1074522-82035193202020000
1064422-912332042241030000
1054423-872920723620500000
1044323-932419102210407001000
1034324-8117161420156010101000
1024224-90111116141991132002000
1014225-807817921132163104000
1004125-90341642015417730601000
994126-802214216158151150912000
984026-91111011121211159112230000
974027-800706815617132144601000
963927-9005035153151551471013000
953928-80031214111149111114261000
943828-900101100611137141651141000
933829-800100703615313141016830000
923729-90004013141109131815720000
913730-80002011206414152015720000
903630-90001008031109192216721000
893631-801005010641221231683100
883531-90000030031514222317831000
873532-8000100102614222317831000
863432-90010000271522241783100
853433-80000000271623241672000
843333-9000000138172524156100
833334-80000131019262313410
823234-900001412232721920
813235-80000261626271751
803135-9000039213024102
793136-800015152831173
783036-9000292234257
773037-801516333212
762937-900211283919
752938-8017254127
742838-9004184434
732839-802134145
722739-90183754
712740-8063262
702640-9032869
692641-8022078
682642-711980
672542-811287
662442-901090
652443-81090
642343-9595
632445-6298
9-62100
Total:675656455444434333332222211110