Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 50%
0 points   0 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.2+0.2
Toronto vs Montreal+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay vs Florida+3.8+3.4+2.9-1.6-1.8-5.9
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.3-0.3-1.0
Nashville vs Ottawa+0.4*+0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
Buffalo vs Columbus-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.3
Washington vs Montreal+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1
St. Louis vs NY Rangers+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.3
Detroit vs Boston+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.3+0.1
Philadelphia vs New Jersey+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-164In100.0%1008,773*
1255815-9In99.910001,092*
1245816-8InYes1001,819*
1235716-9In99.710002,997*
1225717-8In99.8100004,909*
1215617-9In99.6100007,886*
1205618-8In99.41000012,389*
1195518-9In99.01000018,805*
1185519-8In98.3990028,033*
1175419-9In97.6991042,184*
1165420-8In96.3981160,803*
1155320-9In94.59721087,513*
1145321-8In91.896220122,981*
1135221-9In88.194330169,305*
1125121-10In83.1925400229,691*
1115122-9In76.7887500307,423*
1105022-10In68.8839700405,169*
1095023-9In59.177121000524,432*
1084923-10In48.5701514100669,986*
1074924-9In37.3621918100841,023*
1064824-10In26.35323222001,036,345*
1054825-9100.0%16.842262740001,264,333*
1044725-10100.09.432293360001,513,927*
1034726-9100.04.5233037910001,791,393*
1024626-10100.01.71529411320002,082,725*
1014627-9100.00.5927421840002,385,783*
1004527-1099.90.1523422361002,694,271*
994528-999.80.0218402910200002,997,287*
984428-1099.50.0113353314400003,286,602*
974429-998.50.009293518710003,554,059*
964329-1096.1No0523352111310003,779,975*
954330-990.9No03163222177200003,968,677*
944230-1081.3No021127202213510004,108,802*
934231-967.0No0172115231910310004,188,747*
924131-1049.4No0041592124177200004,214,753*
914132-931.9No0210515242314610004,176,080*
904032-1017.9No016291925211141004,084,046*
894033-98.8No003141323261992003,935,964*
883933-103.8No002027172525156103,738,605*
873934-91.5No0010131021272311303,505,487*
863834-100.5No000001514252818613,238,598*
853835-90.2No000000282029261222,948,702*
843735-100.1No000000141327311952,647,264*
833736-90.0No000002821332792,348,816*
823636-100.0No00000014153134152,048,475*
813637-90.0No00000292739231,767,207*
803537-100.0No0000152141321,497,837*
793538-90.0No000031540411,255,761*
783438-10OutNo00011037511,037,674*
773439-9OutNo00163260842,929*
763339-10OutNo00042769678,414*
753340-9OutNo00022276535,669*
743240-10OutNo0011782419,830*
733241-9OutNo011387322,247*
723141-10OutNo00990245,410*
713142-9OutNo00793183,871*
703042-10OutNo0595136,020*
693043-9OutNo039798,011*
682943-10OutNo029870,203*
672944-9OutNo029850,035*
662844-10OutNo19934,644*
652845-9OutNo019923,594*
642745-10OutNo010016,053*
632746-9OutNo010010,740*
622646-10OutNo01007,099*
612647-9OutNo01004,510*
602547-10OutNo01002,848*
55-59OutNo1004,168*
542351-8OutNo199169*
0-53OutNo1007,508*
Total:50.0%3.3%661312666666666688,339,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghDetroitOttawaMontrealNY RangersBostonNY IslandersFloridaPhiladelphiaCarolinaColumbusTorontoBuffaloWashingtonNew Jersey
164820-07.5%777777667767767
1356310-9NoYes
1346513-4No5050
1336312-7No991892727
1326313-6No7777777147721
1316213-78.04844201212484488
1306113-83.579124977552211949
1296013-96.13810451067381071044
1286014-87.06786589106849844
1276015-77.47885687846511864
1265915-86.25579685117557757
1255815-97.3678768694568866
1245816-86.5588768696668765
1235716-97.1688759685658956
1225717-87.3688769676658865
1215617-97.4687868686568866
1205618-87.1688768686658766
1195518-97.4688858686668856
1185519-87.3688868586668866
1175419-97.3688868686668866
1165420-87.6688868685668866
1155320-97.5688868685668865
1145321-87.5688868586668866
1135221-97.5588858585568865
1125121-107.5588858585558855
1115122-97.5588858585558855
1105022-107.4588858585558855
1095023-97.3599958595559955
1084923-107.3599959595559955
1074924-97.3599959595559955
1064824-107.2499949494449944
1054825-97.14101010410410444101044
1044725-107.04101010410410444101044
1034726-96.93101010310310333101033
1024626-106.73111111311311333111133
1014627-96.63111111311311333111133
1004527-106.43111111311311333111133
994528-96.33111111311311222111122
984428-106.22111111311211332111133
974429-96.03111111311311333111133
964329-105.83111111311311333111133
954330-95.43101010310310333101033
944230-104.7388838383338833
934231-93.9277727272227722
924131-102.8255525252225522
914132-91.8133313131113311
904032-101.0122212121112211
894033-90.5011101010001100
883933-100.2000000000000000
873934-90.1000000000000000
863935-80.0000000000000000
853835-90.0000000000000000
843836-80.0000000000000000
833736-90.000000000000
823636-100.00000000000
813637-90.00000000
803537-10No000
793639-7No00
0-78No
Total:3.1%1.65.35.35.21.65.31.65.31.61.61.65.35.21.61.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs Philadelphia+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Montreal-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Florida-0.8-0.7-0.6+0.3+0.4+1.2
Nashville vs Ottawa-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Columbus+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Washington vs Montreal-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Boston-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
129-164100
1286014-8991
126-127100
1255815-91000
1245816-8100
1235716-910000
1225717-8100000
1215617-9100000
1205618-899000
1195518-999100
1185519-898100
1175419-998110
1165420-896211
1155320-9953210
1145321-89242020
1135221-9886303000
1125121-108385040000
1115122-977117050000
1105022-1069159070000
1095023-95918120100000
1084923-104822150130010000
1074924-93725181170010000
1064824-102626211211120000
1054825-91726242242104000000
1044725-10923244264306000000
1034726-95192372675090010000
1024626-102131910231080120020000
1014627-918151217141201611040000
1004527-10051013101515119320601000
994528-9025125141831954090200000
984428-100131021117516980131400000
974429-90018071491112120162701000
964329-100050391151216217511031000
954330-900301411210164148161720000
944230-1000200290614791118313510000
934231-9001001603910411167181041000
924131-10000004014101810112018931000
914132-9000020028044111622189310000
904032-10000100160218818231810410000
894033-900000030104310192319114100000
883933-100000020002131018232013620000
873934-9000010001013918232114720000
863834-1000000000001391723221572000
853835-9000000000138172323167200
843735-1000000000013917242315610
833736-9000000013101926231341
823636-10000000000141222282292
813637-900000016152729174
803537-1000000292132269
793538-900001414303416
783438-10000029253925
773439-900015194135
763339-100002133846
753340-9000183457
743240-1000052966
733241-90032374
723141-100011881
713142-90011386
703042-1000990
693043-900793
682943-1000595
672944-90397
662844-1000298
652845-90199
642745-10199
632746-9199
622646-100100
612647-90100
602547-100100
592548-90100
582549-80100
572449-90100
55-56100
542351-8199
0-53100
Total:333343434342424244444333333333