Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Tied with Calgary 0-0 (7:04 1st), playoff odds up 0.01 to 67.5%
7 points   3 2-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Chicago 3 Philadelphia 0 +0.2
NY Islanders 2 Toronto 5 -0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Calgary vs Tampa Bay-4.3*-0.1*-0.2+3.6+4.0+4.1
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.4
-1.1-0.2-0.2+0.9+1.1+1.1
Colorado vs Florida+0.4*+0.1*-0.0-0.5-0.4-0.4
Boston vs San Jose-0.3-0.4*-0.2*-0.0*+0.1+0.4
Montreal vs Detroit*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.3+0.2
Winnipeg vs Carolina+0.2*+0.1*+0.0*-0.1*+0.0-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Anaheim vs Buffalo+0.2*+0.1*-0.0*-0.3*-0.1-0.2
-0.1*-0.1-0.1*+0.0+0.2+0.1
Edmonton vs Washington+0.2*-0.0*+0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1*-0.1*-0.1*-0.0-0.2*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-159In99.4%1001,427*
1215315-8In99.21000779*
1205316-7In98.5100001,119*
1195216-8In97.899101,742*
1185217-7In96.999102,509*
1175117-8In95.098113,670*
1165118-7In92.598215,293*
1155018-8In88.896327,244*
1145019-7In84.79442010,121*
1134919-8In78.89153013,546*
1124920-7In72.48875018,130*
1114820-8In63.78496023,354*
1104821-7In53.278139030,010*
1094721-8In43.37216120037,925*
1084621-9In32.56420151046,842*
1074622-8In22.25524201056,869*
1064522-9In14.046282420068,036*
1054523-8100.0%7.7363129400079,511*
1044423-9100.03.9273334600091,576*
1034424-8In1.5183338910105,103*
1024324-9100.00.512324213200117,392*
1014325-8100.00.17294418300129,971*
1004225-9100.00.042444235000140,494*
994226-899.90.021942288100149,883*
984126-999.80.01143833112000157,470*
974127-899.2No0103336155100162,871*
964027-997.6No0627381882000165,711*
954028-893.9No042037201351000166,462*
943928-986.9No0214331919103100164,276*
933929-875.0No01102815211672000159,361*
923829-959.4No1622102121135100152,337*
913830-842.1No03166172420103100144,000*
903730-926.6No021131122251772000134,415*
893731-814.8No01716172624134100121,778*
883631-97.2No00403102227219200110,088*
873632-83.4No0020151627271651097,688*
863532-91.3No0010029212923112085,233*
853533-80.5No000015152729185173,654*
843433-90.2No000002922312510262,417*
833434-80.1No0001415293117352,520*
823334-90.0No00029243424643,529*
813335-80.0No000151834311035,135*
803235-90.0No000031231371627,992*
793236-8OutNo001826422421,981*
783136-9OutNo01420423216,994*
773137-8OutNo00215424113,144*
763037-9OutNo011038509,821*
753038-8OutNo01734597,233*
742938-9OutNo00429675,413*
732939-8OutNo0224733,918*
722839-9OutNo0119792,654*
712840-8OutNo0115841,864*
702740-9OutNo111881,333*
692741-8OutNo793864*
682641-9OutNo595567*
672642-8OutNo694375*
662542-9OutNo298227*
652543-8OutNo298154*
642443-9OutNo19998*
632444-8OutNo49678*
622445-7OutNo39730*
7-61OutNo100329*
Total:67.5%4.5%1010181766665543323,346,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonOttawaPittsburghDetroitMontrealColumbusNY IslandersNew JerseyTorontoNY RangersBostonCarolinaFloridaPhiladelphiaBuffalo
159760-010.5%7877488861185751
1315911-6No6733
1305912-550.0Yes
1295711-816.71717173317
1285712-712.02044164812128444
1275612-810.7711114117411144144
1265613-76.88585557498149533
1255614-610.0486161044832126493
1245514-711.276291173711887941
1235414-88.5876686767687774
1225415-711.576577710610875671
1215315-810.8886876798586751
1205316-710.8677678888676673
1195216-89.7676798778776852
1185217-710.3577787878676763
1175117-89.9677877778776752
1165118-710.0677787778777762
1155018-89.5686887878776752
1145019-79.3686887778775762
1134919-89.6687887778776752
1124920-710.0687997778676652
1114820-89.9696997778676752
1104821-79.4696997778676753
1094721-89.15969107778675752
1084621-99.3510610106669575652
1074622-89.2511611116669575742
1064522-99.3511512126669575742
1054523-89.5513513125559474742
1044423-99.2414514135559474732
1034424-88.94154151444410483732
1024324-98.74164161544410383722
1014325-88.73173171533310382722
1004225-98.53173171633311282722
994226-88.33183181733311282722
984126-98.13183181733311281712
974127-87.84183181733211281712
964027-97.64184171633310171712
954028-87.1517417153339171612
943928-96.5516415143338161512
933929-85.5514413123227151411
923829-94.351141092225141301
913830-83.1483762214130201
903730-92.0252541112020100
893731-81.1131321101010100
883631-90.5110110001000000
873632-80.3010110000000000
863633-70.1000000000000000
853533-80.000000000000000
843534-70.00000000000
833434-80.000000000
823334-90.00000
813335-8No00000
803235-9No0
7-79No
Total:5.6%3.310.93.010.610.02.62.62.56.61.75.01.64.51.41.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders 2 Toronto 5 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Calgary vs Tampa Bay+0.9+0.1+0.1-0.8-0.8-0.9
Boston vs San Jose+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1
Colorado vs Florida-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Montreal vs Detroit-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125-159100
1245514-7982
1235414-81000
1225415-7991
1215315-89910
1205316-798100
1195216-898110
1185217-797210
1175117-895311
1165118-792521
1155018-8897302
1145019-78594200
1134919-879135030
1124920-77216705000
1114820-86420906000
1104821-753251309000
1094721-84329150110000
1084621-93232191151010
1074622-82232222181010
1064522-91432234203120000
1054523-882824722520400000
1044423-9423231022840600000
1034424-82172014201270800100
1024324-90111517151610111102000
1014325-8071019101914114213000
1004225-90461851817415530500000
994226-80231621617714950701000
984126-901113111151211129010120000
974127-801906111671514112350100
964027-900603717314174136802000
954028-8004131611116811912151000
943928-9002011306131371215493100
933929-8001009038163121481582000
923829-9010060141619912171472000
913830-80000302140641315201462000
903730-900020110031109192115720000
893731-8010060106412212216731000
883631-90000400031514212316831000
873632-8000020010261422231793100
863532-90010000261522231793100
853533-8000000027152324178300
843433-9000000127162424167200
833434-80000013918252415510
823334-9000014112027221130
813335-80000151425281971
803235-9000028192926133
793236-80014122632206
783136-9002720322910
773137-800314303616
763037-9029263925
753038-8015204233
742938-9003144044
732939-801103653
722839-90063063
712840-8042670
702740-9022276
692741-811584
682641-901090
672642-811187
662643-7694
652543-81693
642443-9496
632444-8496
622445-7397
7-61100
Total:555645554444333244333322222111