Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.8 to 90.1%
64 points   30 20-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Minnesota 2 Boston 4 -0.4
-0.1
Philadelphia 1 New Jersey 2 (ot)-0.4
Florida 0 Nashville 5 +0.1
Columbus 4 Ottawa 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Tampa Bay vs St. Louis+2.3+2.3+2.0-0.8-0.8-4.3
+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
New Jersey vs Los Angeles-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.5
Detroit vs Boston-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.2+0.3
NY Rangers vs Philadelphia+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
120280-0In31.5%3268176,963
119270-1In22.32278417
118271-0In16.117832,733*
117261-1In10.71189010,347*
116251-2In7.1892036,893*
115252-1In4.55950108,103*
114242-2In2.73960294,200*
113243-1In1.52970699,773*
112233-2In0.819811,566,191*
111223-3In0.3198203,169,455*
110224-2In0.1096306,049,032*
109214-3In0.10945010,685,191*
108215-2In0.009190017,919,305*
107205-3In0.0087130028,065,855*
106206-2In0.0080190041,914,936*
105196-3In0.0072271059,002,064*
104197-2In0.0063352079,405,157*
103187-3In0.005243400101,251,958*
102188-2100.0%No041508000123,737,373*
101178-3100.0No0315514100143,886,396*
100179-2100.0No0215621200160,714,137*
99169-3100.0No01453304000171,221,150*
981610-2100.0No0846397000175,436,753*
971510-399.9No043746121000171,808,912*
961511-299.5No22750174000161,993,296*
951411-397.9No0118502092000146,281,342*
941412-293.4No0114520176100127,162,106*
931312-383.9No06381624133000105,931,754*
921313-268.4No0329102623810085,016,711*
911213-349.2No0121522311630065,386,638*
901214-230.7No01132153327910048,469,354*
891114-316.4No00818273518300034,407,069*
881115-27.6No00403183629810023,552,957*
871015-33.1No002011031371720015,418,695*
861016-21.1No0100421402860009,728,635*
85916-30.4No00001123439131005,863,754*
84917-20.1No0000052544233003,398,242*
83817-30.0No000021541348101,882,571*
82818-20.0No0017334216201,001,987*
81718-30.0No000322442650505,840*
80719-2OutNo01133936101246,630*
79619-3OutNo0063042192112,688*
78620-2OutNo002204329549,659*
77520-3OutNo011238391120,396*
76521-2OutNo063045198,195*
75421-3OutNo22148293,093*
74422-2OutNo11245421,044*
73423-1OutNo184052360*
72323-2OutNo43066102*
71324-1OutNo287225*
69-70OutNo10014*
64028-0OutNo199176,889
Total:90.1%0.0%020312775532100002,133,783,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonFloridaNY RangersBostonNY IslandersDetroitPittsburghNew JerseyCarolinaPhiladelphiaMontrealOttawaTorontoBuffaloColumbus
120280-06.0%3518131816116541000
119270-15.02716131917125431
118271-05.7561813181411553000
117261-15.74618131917115430000
116251-25.94717131916115430000
115252-15.84618131916115430000
114242-25.84717131916115430000
113243-15.74717131916115430000
112233-25.74717131916115430000
111223-35.74717131916114430000
110224-25.74718132016114430000
109214-35.65718132015114430000
108215-25.65619122115114430000
107205-35.505620122214104430000
106206-25.506622112313104330000
105196-35.40752410241293330000
104197-25.3085269251083330000
103187-35.2010429727973230000
102188-25.1012331628752230000
177-45.1012332628752230000
101178-35.0014234529542120000
189-14.9015234429542120000
100179-24.8017236330431120000
168-44.8017236330431120000
99169-34.7019137231321120000
1710-14.7019137231321120000
981610-24.6021138131211020000
159-44.6022138131210020000
971510-34.5124038130110020000
1611-14.5124038130110020000
961511-24.4426037029000020000
1410-44.3426036028000020000
951411-34.2927034026000020000
1512-14.21026033025000020000
941412-23.91625029022000020000
1311-43.81824028021000020000
931312-33.42419023016000010000
921313-22.72613017012000010000
911213-31.922801107000010000
901214-21.1154070400000000
891114-30.682040200000000
881115-20.331020100000000
871015-30.11001010000000
861016-20.0000000000000
85916-30.000000000000
84917-20.00000000
83817-30.0000000
82818-20.00000
81617-5No000
64-80No
Total:4.2%5.416.61.529.32.824.23.42.61.00.92.10.20.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 0 Nashville 5 -0.2
Minnesota 2 Boston 4 +0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs St. Louis-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.3+0.3+1.0
Detroit vs Boston-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
120280-032068
119270-12278
118271-016083
117261-11108900
116251-2719200
115252-1419500
114242-23196000
113243-12197100
112233-210971100
111223-3009532000
110224-2009153000
109214-3008595100
108215-20077147200000
107205-300672093100000
106206-2005526117200000
105196-30042311112401000
104197-20030331017802000
103187-3001933822130400000
102188-20113052420271000000
101178-30625222264103101000
100179-20318117308136302000
99169-301120112813131070400000
981610-20080623171113140700000
971510-300402161971424111110000
961511-2020191831232315240000
951411-30010041417346173902000
941412-2000290431111551706100
931312-300016012314106221133000
921313-20000300151456233238100
911213-30001008132417430174000
901214-2000100410029531271010000
891114-3000017014423342051000
881115-200000400121331311430000
871015-30002000152032261130000
861016-2001000182331221030000
85916-30000000211242921920000
84917-2000000031225292082000
83817-3000000141325291972000
82818-2000015152728176100
81718-300016172828155100
80719-2001719302612300
79619-300029233223910
78620-20031328321950
77520-30015183330122
76521-200292636235
75421-30417363310
74422-2018304120
73423-1012214630
72323-21144243
71324-1242452
70224-2991
69225-1100
64028-00199
Total:008122813855133615143110000000000