Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 68.5%
4 points   2 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)-0.3
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)-0.3
*-0.0
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.2
*+0.0
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.2
*+0.0
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)*-0.1
*+0.0
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 *-0.0
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1+0.3+0.9
-0.0*-0.1*-0.0*+0.1*+0.0+0.1
*-0.0*-0.1-0.2*+0.0*+0.1+0.1
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.6*+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.4-0.6
+0.1*+0.0*+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.1
+0.1*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1
Vegas vs Arizona-0.1-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.2
Anaheim vs Minnesota+0.1*-0.0*-0.1*+0.0*-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
92-112InYes100643*
91418-5In99.6%1000238*
90419-4In99.81000477*
89409-5InYes100853*
884010-4In99.310001,378*
873910-5In99.3100002,421*
863911-4In98.599003,808*
853811-5In97.999016,147*
843812-4In96.798119,306*
833712-5In95.1981113,576*
823612-6In91.99622019,848*
813613-5In88.09433027,842*
803513-6In82.09154038,629*
793514-5In74.28677051,702*
783414-6In64.88010100067,595*
773415-5In53.07214131086,804*
763315-6100.0%40.4631818100107,525*
753316-5In27.852222420130,856*
743216-6100.016.9402630400156,621*
733217-5100.08.5282935710182,291*
723117-699.93.6182940111000207,440*
713118-599.71.1102743173000231,621*
703018-699.30.3522432350100252,016*
693019-598.40.02174029100100267,550*
682919-696.30.011235341513000279,003*
672920-592.4No0727362027100285,476*
662820-686.0No04203523511300285,069*
652821-576.8No0213302111166100277,717*
642721-664.8No1723161821113000264,939*
632722-551.4No0416922211882000249,580*
622622-637.4No02104221723165100228,304*
612623-525.6No016118112323134100205,959*
602523-615.8No003013517272210300180,562*
592524-58.7No00107210232820710155,861*
582424-64.5No00004141528281640131,240*
572425-52.2No0002018213125101108,193*
562325-60.9No00100313283319487,881*
552326-50.3No0000017203429869,615*
542226-60.2No0000031331371554,258*
532227-50.0No0001725422541,178*
522127-60.0No000317423630,555*
512128-50.0No000211394822,357*
502028-6OutNo016345916,028*
492029-5OutNo004286811,197*
481929-6OutNo0221777,648*
471930-5OutNo00116835,050*
461830-6OutNo011893,358*
451831-5OutNo08922,189*
441731-6OutNo05951,389*
431732-5OutNo397820*
421632-6OutNo298535*
411633-5OutNo199285*
401533-6OutNo199163*
391534-5OutNo19987*
4-38OutNo100497*
Total:68.5%7.7%1310181576655443324,874,180

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealFloridaCarolinaPhiladelphiaWashingtonNew JerseyTorontoNY IslandersOttawaNY RangersBostonDetroitPittsburghBuffaloColumbus
112540-010.3%5587797961172873
97456-3No3317171717
96446-4No141414142914
95436-511.8612612241266612
94437-412.51344484488131388
93427-59.766668151368102823
92428-48.871497593125831935
91418-57.16810569685756846
90419-49.07910756696884853
89409-510.45411799896944744
884010-48.6769878696864854
873910-59.15610799686764844
863911-49.96710788786854755
853811-510.1678888786854755
843812-410.1669888686864755
833712-510.0579788686855755
823612-610.1679878686855755
813613-510.1679887786865755
803513-610.3679777787865755
793514-510.0788777786765755
783414-69.9798777877765654
773415-59.7897677877675654
763315-69.89107666967676564
753316-59.7101165551068576564
743216-69.5121255551158486463
733217-59.2131454441249487373
723117-69.1141544441349397372
713118-58.8151633331439398272
703018-68.71616333314310298272
693019-58.41616333315310298271
682919-67.91616333314210288161
2818-87.8161633331429288161
672920-57.5151533331429287161
662820-66.8141433331238277151
652821-56.0131233331127156141
642721-65.011103333925144131
632722-53.9883333624133121
622622-62.9663333422122110
612623-51.9442222311111010
602523-61.2222111111001000
592524-50.7111111110000000
582424-60.3111000000000000
572425-50.2000000000000000
562325-60.1000000000000000
552326-50.0000000000000000
542327-40.00000000000000
532227-5No0000000
522228-4No000
512229-3No0
4-50No
Total:5.9%9.89.93.23.13.13.18.72.75.92.15.24.71.84.01.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -0.1
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)+0.0
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
92-112100
91418-51000
90419-41000
89409-5100
884010-49910
873910-599000
863911-499100
853811-598101
843812-497211
833712-595211
823612-6924220
813613-58863030
803513-6829504000
793514-57412707000
783414-66515100100000
773415-55319140130010
763315-640221711800100
753316-5282421122112000
743216-61723233262240000
733217-59202452843070010
723117-64152172776011001000
713118-51916102211110161130000
703018-6051112141315120220500100
693019-50261271319221440900100
682919-60129291851878014113000
672920-5016051491110140182206100
662820-6004028105101821845011300
652821-5002003916185147110166100
642721-601016031297917118124100
632722-50000401610271931619103100
622622-600200280315791919104100
612623-5001015019941321201251000
602523-6000003049151321211462000
592524-5000101601513212217931000
582424-600000040014111923191151000
572425-5000002001410182321136200
562325-60001000139172322157200
552326-500000013817242415620
542226-6000001391826241451
532227-50001310202824122
522127-6000014132530216
512128-50001618313112
502028-600310273822
492029-5016214033
481929-6002143746
471930-50193357
461830-6142868
451831-5022275
441731-6011583
431732-5001089
421632-6892
411633-5595
401533-6694
391534-5595
4-38100
Total:8564735362525242543332222211111