Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Beat Chicago 4-0, playoff odds up 0.02 to 99.97%
82 points   38 19-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay 4 Chicago 0 +0.0
+0.1
+0.7
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia vs NY Rangers+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Nashville vs Detroit+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.8
Montreal vs Toronto-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
NY Islanders vs Carolina-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Edmonton vs St. Louis+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
120190-0In95.3%9910253,775
119180-1In89.99810350,023
118181-0In83.097311,607,461*
117171-1In72.6935203,716,015*
116172-0In59.8888409,828,239*
115162-1In44.679137017,996,574*
114152-2In29.7681913034,938,893*
113153-1In16.8532521053,048,224*
112143-2In7.7373031145,147,808
154-0In8.1393030137,506,255*
111144-1In3.0253241369,997,185
133-3In2.6223144336,984,259*
110134-2In0.81330526078,052,683
145-0In0.81331516061,685,557*
109135-1In0.26265811096,830,500
124-3In0.15235912060,071,008*
108125-2In0.02186119099,285,664
136-0In0.02186119076,958,758*
107126-1In0.011259280102,665,701
115-3In0.011058310071,018,997*
106116-2In0.00653410096,272,203
127-0In0.00753400074,188,236*
105117-1In0.00345510085,314,713
106-3In0.00343540063,199,019*
104107-2InNo0135640072,651,138
118-0InNo0135640055,939,162*
103108-1InNo0126730056,349,771
97-3InNo0024750043,176,723*
10298-2100.0%No00188110043,199,015
109-0100.0No00188110033,293,149*
10199-1100.0No00118620052,665,597*
10089-2100.0No078831036,024,382*
99810-1100.0No0487540022,061,670*
98710-299.9No0283780013,448,204*
97711-199.7No0175815007,308,641*
96611-299.1No0065825103,959,072*
95612-197.4No0537373001,893,003*
94512-293.6No040648600909,831*
93513-186.4No0274561310379,951*
92413-275.6No0162572220160,663*
91414-161.0No9151345057,401*
90314-244.3No40404412020,994*
89315-128.5No20274921206,296*
88215-215.6No00154832401,972*
87216-110.5No0103543111467*
86116-24.4No4324618114*
85117-14.8No5144829521*
84118-0OutNo20805*
83018-1OutNo1001
82019-00.0No01164132910142,627
Total:100.0%2.8%101441350000000001,720,567,620

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealNY RangersNY IslandersPittsburghDetroitWashingtonBostonOttawaFloridaPhiladelphiaNew JerseyColumbusTorontoCarolinaBuffalo
120190-014.1%0000165524660000
119180-114.10000185522750000
118181-014.00001295522750000
117171-113.900013115321740000
116172-013.700114135020640000
115162-113.500118164617630000
114152-213.2101213204015530000
113153-112.8201220233212420000
112143-212.340232925248310000
154-012.340232726259310000
111144-111.9602337261762100000
133-311.860234024165210000
110134-211.490234822113100000
145-011.590234723113100000
109135-111.111013561872100000
124-311.012012591672100000
108125-210.814012651241000000
136-010.814012641341000000
107126-110.51601170831000000
115-310.51601171730000000
106116-210.31800174420000000
127-010.31800173520000000
105-410.21800175320000000
105117-110.11900076220000000
106-310.11800077220000000
104107-29.91900078120000000
118-09.91900078120000000
103108-19.81900078020000000
97-39.81900078020000000
10298-29.71900078020000000
109-09.71900078020000000
10199-19.6191007802000000
10089-29.52011076010000000
99810-19.52031174010000
98710-29.42242170010000
97711-19.4247326401000
96611-29.32710425600000
95612-19.23113434600000
94512-28.9341653370000
93513-18.2351753270000
92413-27.1331753180000
91414-15.82915421100
90314-24.2221132600
89315-12.71572130
88215-21.794111
87216-10.972101
86116-20.941
85117-1No5
83-84No
82019-00.00000
Total:10.8%13.90.40.91.461.110.38.12.40.90.40.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay 4 Chicago 0 -0.5
NY Islanders 2 Calgary 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Nashville vs Detroit-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Montreal vs Toronto+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
NY Islanders vs Carolina+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs NY Rangers-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
120190-095410
119180-190910
118181-083143010
117171-17321502000
116172-06028804000
115162-145351307000
114152-23038190120000
113153-117362512010000
112143-28302822732100
154-08312922531100
111144-132229330640200
133-332028332750300
110134-211225531111006000
145-01122553011906000
109135-106197251517010000
124-305176251619012000
108125-202116161728017110
136-002127161727017110
107126-1016691535023240
115-30155815360252400
106116-20024310390284100000
127-00034311390264900
105117-1001216371267180000
106-3001215361277200000
104107-2001023022110320000
118-0001023022110320000
103108-1001012231411470000
97-3000012131411490000
10298-20000014481163010000
109-00000014481163010000
10199-100000844874120000
10089-20000431579230100
99810-10002203786414000
98710-20011017012528000
97711-100010055204414100
96611-200000392635223100
95612-100023302628103000
94512-200011281528216100
93513-100522042135112000
92413-20115021245158200
91414-1080154716157100
90314-2040139122217510
89315-120026622271330
88215-200152143125920
87216-10101621302281
86116-242143230153
85117-1514382914
84118-0202060
83018-1100
82019-000017253723600
Total:37103128211143170000000000000000