Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances

Lost to Winnipeg 3-4 (ot), playoff odds down 6.4 to 40.4%
3 points   1 1-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-1.8
-0.1
-0.4
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)-0.3
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.3
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)-0.2
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)*-0.1
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.3+0.3+1.1
-0.0*-0.0*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.8*+0.0*-0.0-0.5-0.7-0.6
+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
89-109InYes100474*
88408-5In98.9%99188*
87409-4In99.4991158*
86399-5In99.1991322*
853910-4In96.69811533*
843810-5In96.29811940*
833710-6In94.597211,632*
823711-5In91.996222,742*
813611-6In87.693434,223*
803612-5In82.0896506,642*
793512-6In74.18587010,130*
783513-5In62.8771111015,061*
773413-6In51.66915151021,352*
763414-5In38.55820212030,204*
753314-6100.0%26.648232630041,502*
743315-5100.015.736263250055,208*
733215-6100.07.824283791071,186*
723216-599.93.11528411420090,521*
713116-699.51.082543204000113,468*
703117-598.80.2420422680100137,297*
693017-697.20.01143732120300162,166*
683018-594.20.00930351815100189,212*
672918-688.90.005233523392000213,785*
662919-580.6No031532256154100236,756*
652819-669.6No019262112208200256,386*
642820-556.6No1519141824154100271,329*
632720-642.8No02127202322102000281,709*
622721-529.7No0173191726197100287,568*
612621-619.1No004114102427155100284,843*
602622-511.1No00209417282512300277,422*
592522-65.8No0010529233021810264,561*
582523-53.0No0003041428301640245,976*
572423-61.3No0001017213226101224,972*
562424-50.5No000003122833194200,271*
552324-60.2No0000162135298174,445*
542325-50.1No0000313323715149,312*
532225-60.0No00017264224124,975*
522226-50.0No000004194335102,447*
512126-60.0No000212404682,604*
502127-5OutNo0017355764,661*
492027-6OutNo004296649,274*
482028-5OutNo002237536,862*
471928-6OutNo01178227,371*
461929-5OutNo01128719,916*
451829-6OutNo089114,079*
441830-5OutNo06949,517*
431730-6OutNo04966,567*
421731-5OutNo3974,267*
411631-6OutNo02982,611*
401632-5OutNo01001,729*
391532-6OutNo1991,046*
381533-5OutNo0100657*
371433-6OutNo0100371*
361434-5OutNo100211*
351334-6OutNo199107*
3-34OutNo100512*
Total:40.4%1.7%3491166788888774,874,180

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealTampa BayFloridaCarolinaPhiladelphiaWashingtonNew JerseyTorontoNY IslandersNY RangersBostonDetroitPittsburghBuffaloColumbus
109530-07.9%51087774756119744
97454-4NoYes
94446-3NoYes
92426-5No3317171717
91427-4No2929141414
90406-715.8161151652111511
89418-48.02482101810246468610
88408-59.116727661577727831
87409-410.1454859979966748
86399-58.16577118886966744
853910-46.6756987588954865
843810-56.6766897868845746
833710-66.2766888868656666
823711-56.8767887878756746
813611-65.9766888869755756
803612-56.6777888877755746
793512-66.4877878777766655
783513-56.4888777787665655
773413-66.3988776687666555
763414-56.110109666696566554
753314-66.4111011655595576454
743315-56.11212125555105477464
733215-65.91313124444114387363
723216-55.81414143333123387262
713116-65.51515143333133287262
703117-55.51516153333133288261
693017-65.31515153333132287161
683018-54.91515143333123277151
3119-35.01515143333123277151
672918-64.61414133333123267151
2817-84.41414133434113266151
662919-54.11213113434103256141
3020-34.01312113434103256141
652819-63.6111110343392145131
2718-83.410109334382144131
642820-52.8987333362133121
632720-62.1665333342122110
622721-51.4444222231111110
612621-60.9332222221111000
602622-50.5111111111000000
592522-60.3111111100000000
582523-50.1000000000000000
572423-60.1000000000000000
562424-50.0000000000000000
552324-60.0000000000000000
542325-50.00000000000000
532225-6No0000000000
522226-50.00000000
512328-2No00
3-50No
Total:2.1%5.95.95.41.81.91.91.94.71.51.02.62.60.82.00.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.4
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
89-109100
88408-5991
87409-4991
86399-5991
853910-497111
843810-596211
833710-695221
823711-592422
813611-688543
803612-5827650
793512-67411807000
783513-5631411011000
773413-65218150150010
763414-53920191200020
753314-6272122124113000
743315-51620242282250000
733215-68162443044090010
723216-53122172777014002000
713116-6171692110110191140000
703117-503101013121612222800100
693017-60159611182234501200300
683018-500272717518710018115100
672918-60015031271191502123092000
662919-500301684817220460154100
652819-6001002715155147120199200
642820-501014021076817121166100
632720-60000200472618317221341000
622721-5000101603136921221351000
612621-6000003017731322221462000
602622-500000200371413222316731000
592522-60001014014122123181041000
582523-50000030014111923201252000
572423-600001001391823221472000
562424-50000000138162323167200
552324-600000013816242416720
542325-5000001381725251551
532225-60000139202825123
522226-5000014122431227
512126-600001617313113
502127-5000210263823
492027-60015204034
482028-50002133846
471928-600183358
461929-50042768
451829-60022177
441830-5011584
431730-601089
421731-50892
411631-60595
401632-5298
391532-6298
381533-5199
371433-6199
361434-5199
351334-6199
3-34100
Total:2122323242425242555444444443333