Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.5 to 71.4%
8 points   4 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Tampa Bay 2 +0.4
+0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston vs San Jose-0.3-0.3-0.3*-0.0*+0.1+0.4
+0.1*-0.0*-0.1*-0.1*-0.0-0.0
Calgary vs Tampa Bay+0.4*+0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4
Colorado vs Florida+0.3*+0.1*+0.0*-0.1-0.2-0.3
Montreal vs Detroit*+0.0-0.4-0.2-0.2*-0.1+0.1
Winnipeg vs Carolina+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.2
NY Islanders vs Toronto+0.2-0.3*-0.2*-0.2-0.3*-0.1
-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Philadelphia+0.2*-0.0*+0.0*-0.1*-0.2-0.2
-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Arizona-0.0-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-162In99.9%1002,130*
1235416-7In99.71000992*
1225316-8In99.6100001,600*
1215317-7In99.1100002,458*
1205217-8In98.6100003,632*
1195218-7In98.099105,541*
1185118-8In96.599107,792*
1175018-9In95.1981110,787*
1165019-8In92.3972115,262*
1154919-9In88.79531020,631*
1144920-8In84.89442027,779*
1134820-9In78.79163036,513*
1124821-8In72.28784047,396*
1114721-9In62.983116060,484*
1104722-8In53.477158075,191*
1094622-9In42.77019110092,734*
1084623-8In32.162231410112,009*
1074523-9In22.153281810134,015*
1064524-8In13.7443223200156,627*
1054424-9100.0%7.73435273000180,996*
1044425-8In3.6253832500204,825*
1034325-9100.01.41738378100229,592*
1024326-8100.00.411364111100253,279*
1014226-9100.00.16334316200273,272*
1004227-8100.00.032844214000292,432*
994127-999.90.012243266100306,401*
984128-899.7No117403192000316,806*
974028-999.2No0123535134100322,337*
964029-897.5No0829381682000323,106*
953929-993.6No052337171251000319,345*
943930-886.1No03173516171031000310,896*
933830-974.2No01113012191682000298,067*
923831-858.4No172481821146100281,276*
913731-941.5No041851423201141000261,183*
903732-826.1No0213292025188200238,466*
893632-914.7No01815152525155100216,284*
883633-87.6No00502920272211300192,112*
873533-93.5No00201514252718610168,709*
863534-81.6No00100282029251230145,682*
853434-90.7No00100141326301961124,366*
843435-80.3No000028203126112103,168*
833335-90.1No00001414293217385,673*
823336-80.0No00028233525769,293*
813236-90.0No0000151734321155,719*
803237-80.0No00021131381744,190*
793137-90.0No0001725422434,169*
783138-8OutNo00419433326,301*
773038-9OutNo0214424219,762*
763039-8OutNo0019395014,806*
752939-9OutNo006346010,832*
742940-8OutNo00429677,814*
732840-9OutNo0225735,532*
722841-8OutNo0120793,779*
712741-9OutNo115842,686*
702742-8OutNo0011881,854*
692642-9OutNo08911,228*
682643-8OutNo793790*
672543-9OutNo793535*
662544-8OutNo298342*
652444-9OutNo298193*
642445-8OutNo199109*
632446-7OutNo29883*
8-62OutNo100657*
Total:71.4%5.8%1213201655555443216,562,520

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonNY IslandersDetroitPittsburghTampa BayMontrealColumbusNew JerseyPhiladelphiaNY RangersBostonTorontoCarolinaFloridaBuffalo
162770-09.0%8877668888551051
1345910-8NoYes
1335911-7No17501717
1325912-6No13131325131313
1315812-718.29918992718
1305813-6No661331036166103366
1295814-55.038581010885138883
1285714-67.93810513531181383552
1275513-98.44869825788158371
1265514-87.09677777787104383
1255515-710.06776799510784781
1245415-87.69776671076767743
1235416-77.9875878987865573
1225316-89.8787888886766762
1215317-78.77767781096865662
1205217-87.4686776887856772
1195218-77.4776867887766772
1185118-87.5787877887766762
1175018-97.8777877887766752
1165019-88.0777777897766762
1154919-98.1777777887766662
1144920-87.9777777887766762
1134820-98.1777777887766662
1124821-87.8777778887766662
1114721-97.8778788887766662
1104722-87.9678788886666662
1094622-97.6779799776676662
1084623-87.8679799776666562
1074523-97.5661061010776666562
1064524-87.6661161111665576562
1054424-97.5561261212665577462
1044425-87.4551351312664477462
1034325-97.2551451413554477472
1024326-87.2441541514553387372
1014226-96.9441641615443388372
1004227-86.8441731716433288272
994127-96.6331731717332288282
984128-86.5331831817332298282
974028-96.3331831817322288182
964029-86.1431831817221188172
953929-95.8441731716221187172
943930-85.3541641515221177162
933830-94.5431331312221165152
923831-83.543113109221144041
913731-92.4328277110033031
903732-81.5215154110022021
893632-90.8113133000011010
883633-80.4002021000011010
873533-90.2001011000000000
863534-80.1000000000000000
853434-90.0000000000000000
843435-80.0000000000000
833436-70.0000000000
823336-80.000000
813337-7No000000
803338-6No00
793238-7No0
8-78No
Total:4.8%3.43.211.03.211.010.52.92.92.12.15.55.31.94.91.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton 3 Tampa Bay 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary vs Tampa Bay-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Boston vs San Jose+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Montreal vs Detroit-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
NY Islanders vs Toronto-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
127-162100
1265514-81000
1255515-7100
1245415-81000
1235416-710000
1225316-8100000
1215317-799100
1205217-899100
1195218-798110
1185118-897210
1175018-995311
1165019-892521
1154919-9897310
1144920-88594020
1134820-97912603000
1124821-87215804000
1114721-963201106000
1104722-853241408000
1094622-943281811000000
1084623-83230221131010
1074523-9223125316111000
1064524-814302751921020000
1054424-982728720420300000
1044425-842126112075050000
1034325-911623151811807001000
1024326-80101719141412110111000
1014226-9061221917162122102000
1004227-80372151619413430400000
994127-90141821420813760601000
984128-8121509181310111008120000
974028-9011105131761315210240100
964029-800802819212195115702000
953929-900501418191999811151000
943930-800302150515145101349410000
933830-900101110210182101271483100
923831-8100701518178111615720000
913731-9000402160431114201572000
903732-80002011202188182116831000
893632-90010080105311202216831000
883633-80005002151321231793100
873533-90002001015132123181041000
863534-80001000026142124181031000
853434-900100000261422241893100
843435-800000027152325178200
833335-900000013817252415610
823336-8000013102027231230
813236-900000151324282071
803237-800027182927143
793137-90013122532226
783138-8001719322911
773038-9001313303717
763039-80018254025
752939-9014194135
742940-8002144044
732840-901103553
722841-80163261
712741-90042670
702742-8022177
692642-911683
682643-811386
672543-901189
662544-80595
652444-9694
642445-8397
632446-7496
8-62100
Total:666744664355323233333222221111