Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances

Plays Toronto, playoff odds up 0.7 to 70.8%
8 points   4 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 +0.2
+0.1
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 +0.2
-0.1
Pittsburgh 3 Philadelphia 5 *+0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto+3.3+3.0+2.5-1.4-1.6-5.6
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1-0.2-0.4
+1.0+1.0+0.7-0.5-0.6-1.6
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston vs NY Islanders-0.1-0.3-0.3*+0.1*-0.2+0.3
San Jose vs Columbus+0.2*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.3-0.2
+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Calgary vs Carolina+0.2*+0.0*+0.0*-0.3*-0.1-0.2
Detroit vs Pittsburgh-0.1*-0.2*-0.2*-0.1*-0.1+0.2
Los Angeles vs Buffalo+0.1*+0.1*-0.1*-0.2*-0.3-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-162In99.6%1002,818*
1215317-7In99.310001,463*
1205217-8In98.199002,218*
1195218-7In97.4100003,136*
1185118-8In96.699004,559*
1175018-9In94.799116,398*
1165019-8In91.7981109,174*
1154919-9In88.39622012,342*
1144920-8In84.39523016,354*
1134820-9In78.59344021,523*
1124821-8In71.08955027,835*
1114721-9In61.88577035,442*
1104722-8In52.680910044,183*
1094622-9In41.97413131054,531*
1084623-8In31.266161710065,872*
1074523-9In21.65720212078,332*
1064524-8In13.247232630091,683*
1054424-9In7.3382631500105,288*
1044425-8In3.5282836710119,070*
1034325-9100.0%1.319284011100132,939*
1024326-8100.00.412274316200146,147*
1014226-9100.00.17244421400158,259*
1004227-8100.00.042043267100167,564*
994127-999.90.0215403110200175,945*
984128-899.6No111353514300181,686*
974028-998.8No082937196100184,076*
964029-896.8No05233722113000184,719*
953929-992.4No031634231761000182,239*
943930-884.1No0111292121114100176,717*
933830-971.1No172416241882000169,069*
923831-854.1No0418102224156100159,026*
913731-936.9No02126172522114100147,621*
903732-821.9No0182112226198200136,075*
893632-911.4No00416162625155100121,428*
883633-85.3No00202921282211300107,617*
873533-92.3No0010151425281861094,802*
863534-80.8No010028202925123080,726*
853434-90.3No000014132630196169,022*
843435-80.1No000002720312711157,930*
833335-90.0No0001414293317347,123*
823336-80.0No00028243525638,423*
813236-9OutNo0141736321030,646*
803237-8OutNo0021231391524,382*
793137-9OutNo01726432318,970*
783138-80.0No000421453014,469*
773038-9OutNo0215443910,795*
763039-8OutNo011042478,041*
752939-9OutNo01737555,920*
742940-8OutNo0432634,279*
732840-9OutNo0326712,969*
722841-8OutNo222772,045*
712741-9OutNo118821,499*
702742-8OutNo11783943*
692642-9OutNo01387692*
682643-8OutNo892483*
672543-9OutNo1792285*
662544-8OutNo496177*
652545-7OutNo49699*
642445-8OutNo39769*
632345-9OutNo29842*
8-62OutNo100361*
Total:70.8%5.9%139191676655443213,748,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayWashingtonMontrealDetroitPittsburghColumbusNY IslandersNew JerseyNY RangersTorontoBostonFloridaPhiladelphiaCarolinaBuffalo
162770-011.7%7671086888686660
1346011-6NoYes
1336012-5No25252525
1325811-8No252550
1315913-533.3333333
1305914-43.8441288481223848
1295713-714.84711444747112674
1285512-103.86101281013642812642
1275614-75.77881559658106671
1265514-87.5681010586738710552
1255515-79.010671035875959653
1245415-88.59479710587798541
1235416-78.89698767571087552
1225316-87.9768777678889642
1215317-77.976101166767786652
1205217-88.0869966666888652
1195218-77.7768866776998651
1185118-87.6868976777887641
1175018-98.0769877767988652
1165019-88.1869976666988642
1154919-98.1968966777888642
1144920-87.8869966666988642
1134820-98.08691066666898652
1124821-87.8859966666998542
1114721-98.096101066666988542
1104722-88.1105101066666998542
1094622-97.9105111056665998542
1084623-87.7115111155555998541
1074523-97.7125121255555998431
1064524-87.6134131255554998431
1054424-97.4144131344444998431
1044425-87.4154141444444998321
1034325-97.21631515434431098321
1024326-87.21631615333331098221
1014226-97.01731716333331099221
1004227-86.918317163333210109211
994127-96.718317173332210109211
984128-86.51841716333321099211
974028-96.21841716333321098111
964029-86.2175161533332998111
953929-95.8165151444332887111
943930-85.1155131344332776111
933830-94.3135111033332655111
923831-83.31049833221443100
913731-92.3736522211322000
903732-81.4423311110221000
893632-90.7212211000111000
883633-80.3101100000000000
873533-90.1000000000000000
863534-80.0000000000000000
853535-70.00000000000000
843334-100.000000000000
833436-70.000000
823437-6No0000
79-81No
783138-8No0
8-77No
Total:4.9%11.33.310.810.32.82.82.72.52.16.56.25.61.71.30.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Toronto-0.7-0.6-0.5+0.3+0.4+1.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit vs Pittsburgh+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Boston vs NY Islanders+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Los Angeles vs Buffalo-0.0+0.0*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124-162100
1235416-7991
1225316-8991
1215317-79900
1205217-898100
1195218-797200
1185118-897300
1175018-995411
1165019-8926110
1154919-9888220
1144920-8841120300
1134820-9791440400
1124821-87118505000
1114721-96223707000
1104722-853289010000
1094622-94232121120010
1084623-8313415116101000
1074523-922351821920200
1064524-813342042231030000
1054424-97302062462050000
1044425-8424181023103070010
1034325-9118161320146010101000
1024326-8012121515189014102000
1014226-9078161020121163104000
1004227-80441652014417620601000
994127-9022132161571610501012000
984128-8111011112111214801323000
974028-90070691471612215460100
964029-8005035153151541571013000
953929-900301213111148111115261000
943930-80010110061112714175114100
933830-9010070361431314101693100
923831-80004013131109131916831000
913731-9000201110641315211683100
903732-8000100702110818221783100
893632-9000004010531120231893100
883633-80000200215122123181041000
873533-90001001015132124191141000
863534-801000025132124191141000
853434-900000002613222519103100
843435-80000000026142325189200
833335-90000002717252516610
823336-800001392027241330
813236-900141325282081
803237-80027182928143
793137-90013112533226
783138-80001620333010
773038-900312303816
763039-80018254224
752939-9014194234
742940-802144043
732840-90193654
722841-8163361
712741-9032868
702742-8032374
692642-911979
682643-811287
672543-911089
662544-8595
652545-7793
642445-8694
632345-9793
8-62100
Total:674555445443434343333222221110