Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 50%
0 points   0 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.3
Toronto vs Montreal+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Nashville vs Ottawa-4.4-0.2-0.2+4.0+4.5+4.6
-0.3*-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.8-0.1-0.1+0.8+0.8+0.9
Washington vs Montreal+0.2-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.1
Buffalo vs Columbus-0.1-0.3-0.2*-0.0-0.1+0.2
St. Louis vs NY Rangers+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.2
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.3
Detroit vs Boston+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Florida+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.1
Philadelphia vs New Jersey+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-164InYes1009,789*
1245816-8In99.9%10001,845*
1235716-9In99.8100003,093*
1225717-8In99.8100005,001*
1215617-9In99.6100007,955*
1205618-8In99.31000012,202*
1195518-9In99.01000018,980*
1185519-8In98.7990028,476*
1175419-9In97.5991041,747*
1165420-8In96.3981160,898*
1155320-9In94.59721086,909*
1145321-8In91.896220122,212*
1135221-9In88.294330168,979*
1125121-10In83.191540230,357*
1115122-9In76.8887500308,056*
1105022-10In68.6839800404,284*
1095023-9In59.178121000525,442*
1084923-10In48.470151410668,862*
1074924-9In37.2621918100842,039*
1064824-10In26.35323222001,038,752*
1054825-9100.0%16.842262740001,264,350*
1044725-10100.09.432293260001,516,174*
1034726-9100.04.5233037910001,790,220*
1024626-10100.01.8152941132002,083,198*
1014627-9100.00.5927421840002,387,238*
1004527-1099.90.1523422361002,694,677*
994528-999.80.021840291020002,996,899*
984428-1099.50.011335331440003,288,691*
974429-998.50.009293518710003,551,244*
964329-1096.10.005233522113100003,783,880*
954330-990.8No03163222177200003,970,414*
944230-1081.3No0211272022135100004,106,397*
934231-967.0No0172115231910310004,189,789*
924131-1049.4No0041592124177200004,214,581*
914132-932.0No0210515242314610004,178,434*
904032-1017.9No016291925211141004,082,511*
894033-98.8No003141323261992003,936,186*
883933-103.8No002027172525156103,741,337*
873934-91.5No0010131021272311303,505,248*
863834-100.5No000001514252818613,235,647*
853835-90.2No000000282029261222,947,561*
843735-100.1No00000141327311952,647,761*
833736-90.0No00000002821332792,346,779*
823636-100.0No00000014153134152,048,058*
813637-90.0No000000292739231,761,806*
803537-100.0No0000152141321,498,853*
793538-9OutNo00031540411,257,439*
783438-10OutNo00011037511,035,753*
773439-9OutNo00173260845,305*
763339-10OutNo00042769677,043*
753340-9OutNo0022276535,976*
743240-10OutNo00011782418,705*
733241-9OutNo0011387322,442*
723141-10OutNo000990244,480*
713142-9OutNo00793182,771*
703042-10OutNo00595134,969*
693043-9OutNo039798,378*
682943-10OutNo029870,678*
672944-9OutNo019849,927*
662844-10OutNo019934,552*
652845-9OutNo19923,829*
642745-10OutNo010016,026*
632746-9OutNo010010,696*
622646-10OutNo01007,150*
612647-9OutNo01004,536*
602648-8OutNo01003,007*
592548-9OutNo01001,832*
582549-8OutNo1001,146*
572348-11OutNo0100662*
0-56OutNo1008,267*
Total:50.0%3.3%661213666666666688,339,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghDetroitMontrealNY RangersBostonNY IslandersFloridaPhiladelphiaCarolinaTampa BayColumbusTorontoBuffaloWashingtonNew Jersey
164820-07.4%678667677767776
1366410-8NoYes
1346412-6NoYes
1336312-710.010202010201010
1326212-827.8617661166611622
1316213-79.7633661933610633163
1306113-89.419114248499114924
1296013-96.6611116106587757732
1286014-88.48575958368581156
1275914-96.458106771074647866
1265915-86.4577686867568875
1255815-98.2686565767877866
1245816-87.1699594856768766
1235716-97.0688675865768865
1225717-86.8678685865867865
1215617-97.7688685866868866
1205618-87.8688586765868866
1195518-97.6688686865868866
1185519-87.5688586866868866
1175419-97.4688685866868866
1165420-87.4688686865868866
1155320-97.5688686856868866
1145321-87.5688686856858856
1135221-97.5588585866868855
1125121-107.4588585855858855
1115122-97.4588585855858855
1105022-107.3588585855858855
1095023-97.4599585955859955
1084923-107.3599595955959955
1074924-97.2599595955959955
1064824-107.2499494944949944
1054825-97.14101041041044104101044
1044725-107.04101041041044104101044
1034726-96.93101031031033103101033
1024626-106.73111131131133113111133
1014627-96.63111131131133113111133
1004527-106.53111131131133113111133
994528-96.32111121121132113111132
984428-106.23111121131133113111132
974429-96.03111131131133113111133
964329-105.73111131131133113111133
954330-95.33101031031033103101033
944230-104.7388383833838833
934231-93.8277272722727722
924131-102.8255252522525522
914132-91.8133131311313311
904032-101.0122121211212211
894033-90.5011010100101100
884034-80.2000000000000000
873934-90.1000000000000000
863935-80.0000000000000000
853835-90.0000000000000000
843836-80.0000000000000000
833736-90.0000000000000000
823737-80.00000000000
813637-90.00000000
803638-8No000
0-79No
Total:3.1%1.65.35.31.65.21.65.31.71.65.31.65.25.31.61.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs Philadelphia+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Montreal-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Nashville vs Ottawa+0.9+0.0+0.0-0.8-0.9-1.0
Washington vs Montreal-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Columbus+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Florida-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Detroit vs Boston-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125-164100
1245816-81000
1235716-9100000
1225717-8100000
1215617-9100000
1205618-899000
1195518-999100
1185519-899100
1175419-998110
1165420-896211
1155320-9943210
1145321-89242200
1135221-988630300
1125121-10838504000
1115122-977117050000
1105022-1069159070000
1095023-95918120100000
1084923-1048221501300100
1074924-9372518117001000
1064824-10262621121110200000
1054825-9172624324210400000
1044725-1092324426420600000
1034726-95192372675090010000
1024626-10213191022108012002000
1014627-9181512171412016110400000
1004527-10051013101515119320601000
994528-902512514183195409020000
984428-10013102111751698013140000
974429-90018071491112120162701000
964329-10000503911512162175110310000
954330-900301411210164148161720000
944230-1000200290614791118313510000
934231-9001016039104111671810410000
924131-1000000401410181011201893100000
914132-9000020028044111622189310000
904032-100001001602188182318104100000
894033-900000030104310192319114100000
883933-100000020002131019232013620000
873934-9000001001013918232114720000
863834-1000000000001391723221572000
853835-90000000000138172323167200
843735-1000000000013917242315610
833736-90000000001391926231341
823636-10000000000141222282292
813637-90000000016152729174
803537-10000000292132269
793538-900001415303416
783438-10000029253925
773439-900015194135
763339-1000002133946
753340-900183457
743240-1000052966
733241-90032374
723141-100011881
713142-9011386
703042-1000990
693043-900793
682943-1000595
672944-90397
662844-100298
652845-90199
642745-10199
632746-9199
622646-100100
612647-90100
602648-80100
592548-90100
582549-8100
572348-110100
0-56100
Total:333343434342424244444333333333