Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances

Beat Toronto 4-3, playoff odds up 3.6 to 16.7%
47 points   19 18-9

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Ottawa 4 Toronto 3 +2.5
+0.2
Colorado 3 Boston 2 (so)+0.3
Pittsburgh 2 Chicago 3 (so)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Florida vs Detroit-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.0-0.0+0.5
Columbus vs Washington+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3
Pittsburgh vs Winnipeg-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2
Montreal vs Dallas-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2
Philadelphia vs Arizona-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Carolina vs Tampa Bay+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
NY Islanders vs NY Rangers+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
119360-0In82.3%991001,521,677
118350-1In50.01004
117340-2In64.396428*
116341-1In46.49064140*
115331-2In29.1771480714*
114332-1In19.0681714002,657*
113322-2In11.35522211109,561*
112312-3In5.3422628130029,513*
111313-2In2.1292933360084,768*
110303-3In0.6182837610010222,712*
109304-2In0.11026361116010549,100*
108294-3In0.05213117221301,261,167*
107295-2100.0%0.021523222836002,733,281*
106285-3100.00.0110152432711005,584,698*
105275-4100.00.0068243213171010,818,028*
104276-3100.0No034202719242019,899,669*
103266-499.9No0111420253260034,920,212*
102267-399.5No0109132737111058,481,003*
101257-498.4No000572639202093,760,770*
100258-396.1No00033223830400143,963,180*
99248-492.0No0011173240800212,307,390*
98249-385.4No00101125481400300,638,408*
97239-476.5No00007185123100409,769,944*
962310-365.5No00004115032200537,616,060*
952210-453.5No0000274542400680,092,381*
942211-341.3No0001437508000829,535,587*
932111-430.1No00002285613100976,994,722*
922112-320.5No00012057212001,111,071,289*
912012-413.0No000013552930001,221,309,882*
902013-37.6No00007483770001,297,750,611*
891913-44.0No0000440431210001,333,963,175*
881914-31.9No000230471920001,326,372,062*
871814-40.8No00120462750001,276,576,768*
861815-30.3No000134135101001,189,216,813*
851715-40.1No00073341172001,072,913,579*
841716-30.0No0003234225500936,980,952*
831616-40.0No000115383410100792,643,605*
821617-30.0No0018313918300649,199,171*
811517-40.0No004224127600515,087,726*
801518-30.0No0021437351110395,616,816*
791418-40.0No001830411820294,297,081*
781419-3OutNo00422422740211,826,879*
771319-4OutNo00214403680147,680,513*
761320-3OutNo0018334414099,577,921*
751220-4OutNo004254822064,962,811*
741221-3OutNo002184932040,968,837*
731121-4OutNo001114642024,981,257*
721122-3OutNo00074052014,710,837*
711022-4OutNo004346208,368,566*
701023-3OutNo002267104,586,399*
69923-4OutNo01207812,426,128*
68924-3OutNo00148411,237,577*
67824-4OutNo010882605,314*
66825-3OutNo06904286,018*
65725-4OutNo04906129,070*
64726-3OutNo0289956,197*
63626-4OutNo01861323,109*
62627-3OutNo183179,219*
61628-2OutNo078223,376*
60528-3OutNo067331,293*
59529-2OutNo6535391*
58429-3OutNo5644151*
57430-2OutNo316942*
56431-1OutNo44569*
54-55OutNo1007*
47036-0OutNo1991,521,675
Total:16.7%0.0%0000013122724169521018,357,760,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNY IslandersTampa BayNY RangersDetroitMontrealPittsburghWashingtonBostonFloridaTorontoPhiladelphiaColumbusNew JerseyCarolinaBuffalo
119360-01.6%4561012112522400000
118350-1No255025
117340-23.6711147141829
116341-11.4581091182717311
115331-21.5595121311241730000
114332-11.6477121313221830000
113322-21.5789121314211420000
112312-31.48810131315191220000
111313-21.4991112131619920000
110303-31.41191312121718710000
109304-21.313914111218175100000
108294-31.4149161111191631000000
107295-21.3161017111119152000000
106285-31.21710181111191320000000
105275-41.21811181111181210000000
104276-31.11812191111171110000000
103266-41.1191319121116910000000
102267-31.1191419121215810000000
101257-41.0201519121213610000000
100258-31.0201618121212500000000
99248-40.9191618121210400000000
98249-30.918161711119300000000
238-50.918161611119300000000
97239-40.817141510108300000000
2410-20.817151510108300000000
962310-30.7151313996200000000
229-50.6141213886200000000
2411-10.7151313886200000000
952210-40.5121011775100000000
2311-20.6131111775200000000
219-60.511101067510000000
942211-30.41089554100000000
2110-50.4988554100000000
932111-40.3766443100000000
2212-20.376644310000000
922112-30.2544332000000000
912012-40.133322100000000
902013-30.122211100000000
891913-40.011101000000000
881914-30.000000000000000
871814-40.000000000000000
861815-30.000000000000000
851715-40.00000000000
841716-30.0000000000
831616-40.0000000000
821617-30.000000000
811517-40.00000000
801518-30.0000000
791519-2No000
47-78No
Total:0.2%3.73.13.32.12.21.70.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa 4 Toronto 3 -0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida vs Detroit+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Nashville vs Colorado-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
119360-0821610000
118350-15050
117340-264324
116341-1464464
115331-22948140810
114332-1194916112200
113322-211441931741100
112312-353622519813000
111313-22272171914305000
110303-31181910172060910100
109304-2010141212241101320100
108294-3059127241601761300
107295-2025103202111810306000
106285-30137114222171570100000
105275-4001508203131913016110
104276-300304154819190222200
103266-4001011054162402756000
102267-3001005411126129911010
101257-4000002307242271320020
100258-30000012031932216300400
99248-400001011341517401800
98249-300000007491646214000
97239-400000003451347523100
962310-300000013210419323000
952210-4000000021631134060000
942211-3000000103201746121000
932111-4000000021117462040000
922112-300000015154029910000
912012-400000021130351741000
902013-3000000171935261020000
891913-40000000410283219610000
881914-3000000241832281330000
871814-40000111025322282000
861815-30000041629291651000
851715-400000182231251020000
841716-300000031327311961000
831616-40000016193128133000
821617-3000002102533227100
811517-400001516313014300
801518-300000292535236000
791418-400000416333213100
781419-3000019273821400
771319-400004183831800
761320-3000011133401410
751220-40005254423200
741221-30002174432400
731121-4001104042700
721122-3000532491210
711022-400324531910
701023-300116532730
69923-40010493650
68924-3006424390
67824-4033448140
66825-3012651211
65725-4011851291
64726-301248373
63626-40741475
62627-30534539
61628-22265913
60528-31205623
59529-2146026
58429-3105337
57430-252669
56431-14456
54-55100
47036-00199
Total:0000000000101275151312119864321000