Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.04 to 57.1%
24 points   10 7-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)-0.7
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 -0.3
Pittsburgh 4 NY Islanders 5 (so)-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs NY Rangers+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -5.6
-0.3
-0.5
Washington 1 Buffalo 2 +0.5
Boston 0 Montreal 2 +0.5
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 -0.2
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 -0.2
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 -0.2
+0.1
Philadelphia 4 Columbus 2 -0.1
Colorado 4 Carolina 3 +0.1
Nashville 3 Florida 2 (so)*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-146InYes1005,667*
125477-7In99.0%991105*
124478-6In99.11000233*
123479-5In96.19730513*
122469-6In94.69630900*
1214610-5In93.395411,666*
1204510-6In90.293612,996*
1194511-5In85.289925,427*
1184411-6In80.28611309,209*
1174412-5In74.082144015,704*
1164312-6In65.476186025,551*
1154313-5In56.9702280040,586*
1144213-6In46.96326110062,428*
1134113-7In36.55430151094,332*
1124114-6In26.646332010138,944*
1114014-7In17.737362520200,687*
1104015-6In10.929383030283,063*
1093915-7In6.0213836500388,782*
1083916-6In2.9153641800523,118*
1073816-7100.0%1.210324512100690,641*
1063817-6100.00.46284717200887,016*
1053717-7100.00.132348233001,121,712*
1043718-6100.00.021746296001,384,547*
1033618-7100.00.01124235101001,673,084*
1023619-699.90.0083639152001,980,921*
1013519-799.8No052942213002,300,844*
1003520-699.5No0322412760002,614,804*
993420-798.8No02153833101002,916,367*
983421-697.4No01103337163003,187,971*
973321-794.6No006273923500003,415,094*
963322-689.8No00320373091003,590,295*
953222-782.3No021431351530003,697,177*
943223-671.6No01924382251003,735,951*
933123-758.3No0051736291020003,703,600*
923124-643.8No0031030341741003,604,160*
913024-729.9No001623362581003,439,995*
903025-618.5No00131532311540003,221,460*
892925-710.2No0001926342271002,959,410*
882825-84.9No0004183329132002,665,078*
872826-72.1No0002112733205002,361,048*
862726-80.8No00016213428101002,048,282*
852727-70.3No00003143134163001,746,891*
842728-60.1No000182537245001,460,567*
832628-70.0No000041836329101,198,228*
822629-60.0No00021132381520966,441*
812529-70.0No001726412230762,149*
802530-60.0No000419422960592,618*
792430-7OutNo002133936101449,554*
782431-6OutNo00183342151336,296*
772331-7OutNo0052745212245,610*
762332-6OutNo0032046284176,317*
752232-7OutNo011543356125,550*
742233-6OutNo011039411085,560*
732133-7OutNo00634461458,526*
722134-6OutNo0428491938,645*
712034-7OutNo0222512525,292*
702035-6OutNo0116503216,245*
691935-7OutNo0112474010,174*
681936-6OutNo0944476,350*
671836-7OutNo0539553,753*
661837-6OutNo336612,239*
651737-7OutNo328691,196*
641738-6OutNo12771763*
631739-5OutNo11881391*
621639-6OutNo1882222*
611539-7OutNo11188103*
601540-6OutNo128858*
591440-7OutNo39729*
24-58OutNo1005,605*
Total:57.1%0.4%139141515121086421067,314,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghTampa BayNY IslandersDetroitMontrealTorontoWashingtonBostonNY RangersFloridaPhiladelphiaNew JerseyCarolinaColumbusBuffalo
146610-04.5%061916205165124310
132525-4NoYes
131526-3NoYes
130516-4No20204020
129495-7No17331733
128507-4No1717172525
127497-5No11221717116666
126487-62.299202442292
125477-72.9519142131631748
124478-67.383131217819294210
123479-54.3911213174135164410
122469-63.90721316165155124310
1214610-55.506212171941651333100
1204510-64.607112171951651233100
1194511-54.107113171841641243100
1184411-64.508113171841651233100
1174412-54.708114181841541133100
1164312-64.408114171841541133100
1154313-54.609115181741541033100
1144213-64.5010116181731431032100
1134113-74.401111819163143922100
1124114-64.401211920163133922000
1114014-74.301412120153123822000
1104015-64.201612221142112721000
1093915-74.201712321132112711000
1083916-64.101812522132102611000
1073816-74.01201262212191611000
1063817-63.91211262211191511000
1053717-73.71221272211181511000
1043718-63.62231272210181500000
1033618-73.64232272110171400000
1023619-63.5623226219171400000
1013519-73.4824325209160400000
1003520-63.41124424198160300000
993420-73.31424523177150300000
983421-63.21724521156140200000
973321-73.02123619135130200000
963322-62.82422716114030200000
953222-72.6252071493020100000
943223-62.2251871172010100000
933123-71.823146851010000000
923124-61.318105531000000000
913024-70.91373320000000000
903025-60.6942210000000000
892925-70.3521110000000000
882926-60.1211000000000000
872826-70.1100000000000000
862827-60.0000000000000000
852727-70.0000000000000000
842728-60.00000000000000
832729-50.0000000000
822528-80.0000000
812428-9No00
802530-6No0
24-79No
Total:1.9%11.313.43.211.68.73.60.42.60.31.60.20.10.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 3 Boston 4 (so)+0.1
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 +0.9
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 +0.0
Toronto 4 Detroit 1 -0.0
Nashville 3 Florida 2 (so)+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-146100
125477-7991
124478-69900
123479-596130
122469-695230
1214610-593241
1204510-690361
1194511-585492
1184411-680611030
1174412-5748140400
1164312-665101806000
1154313-5571322080000
1144213-64716260110000
1134113-73718291150010
1124114-627193211910100
1114014-718193422311200
1104015-61118344262203000
1093915-76153162843050000
1083916-631227929750800000
1073816-719211126117012001000
1063817-6061513211510016102000
1053717-70310131519131212003000
1043718-602612920152244006000
1033618-70131051815425810901000
1023619-600172141362414201412000
1013519-70051101081919301923000
1003520-6003066913235123460000
993420-7002033972461267100100
983421-60010117321632513151300
973321-7000011511665201821250000
963322-600000301046142325591000
953222-70002052682425101430000
943223-60001031532121172071000
933123-7000001041161422241341000
923124-600000020108232321930000
913024-7000000106320182518720000
903025-6000010311411242515610000
892925-700000010951726231241000
882825-8000000042102227211031000
872826-70000002141424261882000
862726-8000010271726251561000
852727-7000000039202723124100
842728-600000141324282082000
832628-700000026172727165100
822629-6000000310222923102000
812529-700015152729185100
802530-600002821312511200
792430-7001414283118400
782431-600028223325910
772331-700141531311530
762332-6002926352260
752232-70015193529101
742233-6002133135162
732133-700182638234
722134-60042038307
712034-700214363711
702035-6019314218
691935-7016264425
681936-603214432
671836-701154439
661837-60104148
651737-7173657
641738-6143660
631739-522474
621639-612376
611539-731186
601540-61981
591440-73393
24-58100
Total:012223224622788776654433211000