Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.5 to 30.2%
67 points   28 23-11

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Boston 3 Calgary 4 (so)+1.2
+0.0
Washington 1 Minnesota 2 +0.4
Philadelphia 3 St. Louis 1 -0.3
Florida 3 Dallas 4 (so)+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Ottawa vs Buffalo+2.4+2.3+1.4-4.6-4.5-9.9
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2
New Jersey vs Columbus-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
107200-0InNo412433571,013
106190-1InNo3275021154
105191-0InNo11944350706*
104181-1InNo08434722,272*
103171-2InNo03325956,937*
102172-1100.0%No01226413016,460*
101162-299.8No0146125038,153*
100163-199.3No075240174,386*
99153-298.0No0441532138,940*
98154-195.1No02286550227,629*
97144-290.1No011871100357,182*
96145-183.7No01172160255,561
134-380.8No0971190249,812*
95135-272.4No05672700685,544*
94136-162.3No03603710401,588
125-358.1No02564110444,811*
93126-247.4No01465020563,873
115-446.7No01465130443,211*
92127-136.1No003659500501,619
116-332.0No003261700602,851*
91117-222.4No0022651210643,541
106-419.9No0020651410281,575
128-024.5No0024641110235,091*
90107-312.0No0012642220500,860
118-113.4No0013642120628,086*
89108-26.6No007563250579,958
97-45.4No005543560263,144
119-07.5No008573150211,232*
8898-32.5No00242431210407,361
109-12.9No00344411110508,775*
8799-21.0No130472020421,646
88-40.9No0129472120344,467*
8689-30.2No0174433500263,662
910-10.3No018453250330,179*
85810-20.1No0937431100443,541*
84811-10.0No0426492010306,391*
83711-2OutNo115483230204,726*
82712-1OutNo074044800126,024*
81612-2OutNo032851172074,495*
80613-1OutNo011650285041,004*
79513-2OutNo008413811121,534*
78514-1OutNo03284522310,120*
77414-2OutNo117423374,781*
76415-1OutNo083345141,945*
75315-2OutNo42249240760*
74316-1OutNo1194436280*
73216-2OutNo111345388*
72217-1OutNo297124*
71218-0OutNo1005*
67020-0OutNo2971983
Total:30.2%No0000327391893100011,868,980

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNY RangersMontrealNY IslandersTampa BayDetroitPittsburghWashingtonBostonFlorida
107200-02.4%330232281300
106190-12.67312183841
105191-01.812228242940
104181-13.1152482324510
103171-22.719231018227000
102172-12.42322111719800
101162-22.42522121518800
173-02.52522121418800
100163-12.32622121417800
152-32.62722121417800
99153-22.32723111317700
164-02.32722121317700
142-42.22723111316700
98154-12.32723101216600
143-32.327231012176000
132-52.127229121760
97144-22.2262291216600
155-02.12622101216600
133-42.026219111650
96145-11.9242081115500
134-31.9242081014500
123-51.8241971014400
95135-21.722187913400
124-41.622176912400
146-01.7221871013400
94136-11.41915681130
125-31.31814581130
114-51.31813571030
93126-21.1151146930
115-41.0141046820
137-01.21612471030
104-61.113935720
92127-10.811835720
116-30.710834620
105-50.710724620
91117-20.57523410
106-40.56423410
128-00.686235100
90118-10.34312310
107-30.34312210
96-50.23211200
89108-20.12101100
97-40.12101100
119-00.22211100
88109-10.11100100
8799-20.00000000
86910-10.0000000
85810-20.00000000
84811-1No000000
67-83No
Total:0.7%9.17.22.84.05.51.70.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

ThursdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Buffalo-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.9

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
107200-044817151133117
106190-11138151366721
105191-00114140266123500
104181-10001701591804612
103171-20003068195725
102172-1001014170586130
101162-2000112051102500
100163-100007038153901
99153-200003124175212
98154-1000010121661450
97144-2000051361101000
96145-1002953201610
134-3001851201910
95135-20005363125300
124-40005363125300
94136-100032139297100
125-30002193732910
93126-2000183830175000
115-400017363119600
137-000019392916400
92127-1000333242613200
116-3000229232815200
91117-2001221430266100
106-4001211430267100
90107-3000126243717300
118-1000136253616300
89108-20007214372910200
97-40005213363111200
119-0000821537289100
8898-30002062737226100
109-10003062836206100
8799-20010215333214300
8689-30006223527910
910-10006233525810
85810-2000212293519300
84811-10004193631900
83711-201928401920
82712-1003174033600
81612-2001833441410
80613-100321472540
79513-2001114136111
78514-1042844213
77414-2021842327
76415-108334514
75315-2042249240
74316-12184436
73216-21113453
72217-12971
71218-08020
67020-0285130
Total:0000000000012111612121512864200000