Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances

Beat Columbus 4-1, playoff odds up 10.6 to 80.5%
59 points   27 17-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Columbus 1 Montreal 4 +6.5
+0.1
Carolina 1 Ottawa 4 +1.2
Arizona 2 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)-0.2
Washington 0 NY Islanders 2 +0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs Buffalo+1.8*+0.2*+0.1-1.6-1.7-1.7
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Montreal vs Philadelphia+2.8+2.8+2.1-2.0-1.9-6.6
+0.0+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Columbus+0.6*-0.0*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.5
Boston vs NY Rangers-0.2-0.3*-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Vegas vs Pittsburgh+0.2*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1*-0.2-0.2
Nashville vs Florida+0.1*-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*-0.2-0.2
New Jersey vs Anaheim-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125330-0In95.6%964474
121312-0InYes1002*
120302-1In42.957437*
119292-2In44.4445618*
118282-3In33.3366442*
117283-2In34.83961135*
116273-3In20.9290691354*
115274-2In12.1170811751*
114264-3In7.81418321,687*
113265-2In5.11108453,191*
112255-3In1.86186706,404*
111256-2In0.9318511011,485*
110246-3In0.3218116019,697*
109236-4In0.1117523132,720*
108237-3In0.0006830250,910*
107227-4In0.00059373076,110*
106228-3InNo00504560108,917*
105218-4InNo00405190148,793*
104219-3100.0%No0031551400194,896*
103209-4100.0No0023562010245,981*
1022010-3100.0No016552720299,426*
1011910-499.9No0115234300349,512*
1001911-399.7No74640700391,978*
991811-499.2No439431310426,303*
981812-397.9No0232422220444,697*
971712-495.3No124393150448,679*
961713-390.7No1183240900435,911*
951613-483.7No01224471610410,067*
941614-374.5No0817492410372,606*
931514-463.1No05114734300325,324*
921515-350.6No0364243600274,679*
911415-438.4No02334501110224,637*
901416-327.2No011255418100176,550*
891316-417.9No01175326300135,436*
881317-310.7No0010483471099,675*
871217-45.9No0064041121070,481*
861218-32.9No00330442030048,742*
851118-41.3No00120422881032,061*
841119-30.4No0123734142020,562*
831019-40.2No0627382261012,464*
821020-30.1No0217373012207,538*
81920-40.0No01102935195104,296*
80921-30.0No00420362711202,338*
79821-4OutNo0212293318501,213*
78822-3OutNo05223526101599*
77722-4OutNo1163135143290*
76723-3OutNo72438238152*
75724-2OutNo1333381578*
74624-3OutNo334323238*
73524-4OutNo50502*
72525-3OutNo50502
71425-4OutNo50504*
59033-0OutNo0100474
Total:80.5%0.0%0092623221441000005,919,388

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayTorontoNY IslandersPittsburghWashingtonBostonColumbusBuffaloCarolinaNY RangersFloridaNew JerseyOttawaDetroitPhiladelphia
125330-02.3%12761117192241010
121312-0No5050
120302-1No29291429
119292-2No446176226
118282-3No4527197172
117283-20.7471181661911
116273-30.60561332167210
115274-21.215912325371000
114264-31.8161112253610000
113265-22.016311125260000
112255-31.8265011251400000
111256-21.5267001251400000
110246-31.7268000250300000
109236-41.5269000240300000
108237-31.6268110240300000
107227-41.52681112303000000
106228-31.526722122130000
105218-41.5266432201300000
104219-31.526364219230000
103209-41.5359864162200000
1022010-31.53541185143200000
1011910-41.55481410611420000000
1001911-31.5842161279510000000
1810-51.5941171179510000000
991811-41.51435181277510000000
1912-21.51435181277510000000
981812-31.42129181275510000000
1711-51.42228181275510000000
971712-41.4312217116341000000
1813-21.43122171163410000000
961713-31.33917151052400000000
1612-51.3401614952300000
951613-41.145121174130000000
1714-21.24512127413000000
941614-31.04798521200000000
931514-40.84565320100000000
921515-30.73943210100000
911415-40.53222110000
901416-30.324211000000
891316-40.2161000000
881317-30.1101000000
871217-40.16000000
861218-30.03000000
851219-20.010000
841119-30.00000
831019-4No0
821121-1No00
811021-2No0
801022-1No0
59-79No
Total:1.2%22.327.710.16.83.76.42.60.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Montreal 4 -0.6
Florida 3 Toronto 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs Buffalo-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal vs Philadelphia-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.3+0.3+0.8
Boston vs NY Rangers+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
125330-0964
121312-0100
120302-1431443
119292-24456
118282-333264
117283-235461
116273-32180691
115274-212508101
114264-38618302
113265-2560083105
112255-32410833070
111256-212108040110
110246-30210727101600
109236-401006211222001
108237-3000048164029002
107227-40000341960371030
106228-3000211990431160
105218-40001117111463290
104219-30005131124554014000
103209-4000281034188020010
1022010-300474321013027020
1011910-4002542211190340300
1001911-301231310230400700
991811-40013682414301310
981812-300023522242122020
971712-40011318237131050
961713-300001133302400900
951613-400001842134601610
941614-30000441344912410
931514-40000237346234300
921515-300123338443600
911415-4000112276491210
901416-30001011785020300
891316-4000018845297100
881317-30000373436154100
871217-400015213525103000
861218-30000031026302082000
851118-400014142627187200
841119-3016162626167200
831019-40027172625166100
821020-30002718262514520
81920-40002818282514410
80921-3001282128221441
79821-4003102326221230
78822-303132331171030
77722-4141828281281
76723-313203225127
75724-211215312912
74624-33112132268
73524-4100
72525-35050
71425-425252525
59033-0199
Total:000032211141112212111341100000000000