Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances

Lost to San Jose 0-4, playoff odds down 0.002 to 99.99%
87 points   41 17-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
San Jose 4 Montreal 0 -0.3
-8.5
NY Rangers 4 Nashville 1 -0.0
+2.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo*-0.0*+0.0-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.1
-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.2*+0.1+0.2
Dallas vs NY Islanders+0.2*+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2
New Jersey vs Nashville+2.6+0.9+0.9-1.2-1.6-1.6
Arizona vs Anaheim+0.6+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-125InYes1003,673*
123181-0In99.9%100006,280*
122171-1In99.8100016,948*
121161-2In99.5100048,522*
120162-1In98.710000102,152*
119152-2In96.89910217,110*
118153-1In93.39820375,191*
117143-2In87.09540641,908*
116144-1In77.49181942,554*
115134-2In64.0851320775,376
145-0In64.3851320579,325*
114135-1In49.5762040964,943
124-3In46.0752150758,065*
113125-2In31.46329801,219,421
136-0In34.1652870498,499
114-4In28.36129100416,223*
112126-1In18.150371301,261,726
115-3In15.647381501,112,944*
111116-2In7.333442211,458,548
127-0In8.73644201558,439
105-4In6.03043251551,741*
110117-1In2.620463121,294,931
106-3In2.018453431,233,827*
109107-2In0.510424261,368,808
118-0In0.71144405502,343
96-4In0.4839458547,423*
108108-1In0.1435491101,061,706
97-3In0.1332511401,048,950*
10798-2In0.0124542101,010,909
87-4In0.012353220780,061*
10699-1InNo01652320696,035
88-3In0.001351360694,682*
10589-2InNo08454700595,073
78-4InNo08444700458,619*
104810-1InNo04356100727,584*
103710-2InNo02267200490,570*
102711-1InNo1178110300,589*
101611-2100.0%No01087210180,647*
100612-1100.0No068933098,104*
99512-2100.0No038746051,846*
98513-199.8No182412024,449*
97413-299.2No0744211011,220*
96414-197.1No063430304,747*
95314-293.5No050341601,912*
94315-185.3No36248141661*
93215-273.3No20351243221*
92216-164.2No174730681*
91217-052.4No104343521*
90117-150.0No5025254*
87019-03.0No322532112,129
Total:100.0%19.7%3427261300000025,697,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNY RangersPittsburghNY IslandersDetroitTampa BayWashingtonBostonOttawaFloridaPhiladelphiaNew JerseyCarolinaColumbusToronto
125190-010.0%00112155418530
124180-18.500113125517640
123181-08.60111213561763000
122171-19.000112115618730000
121161-28.900112125518730000
120162-19.101112125518730000
119152-28.801112125518730000
118153-19.001112135418830000
117143-28.901112135318830000
116144-18.801212155117830000
115134-28.701213184816820000
145-08.601213184816830000
114135-18.502314214415720000
124-38.502325214215720000
113125-28.302437253713620000
136-08.302437253713620000
112126-18.0135410293110510000
115-37.9135512292910510000
111116-27.713681632237410000
127-07.713671532248410000
105-47.513691831217410000
110117-17.3146132131165210000
106-37.3146152330154200000
109107-27.0135202927103100000
118-07.1146182729113100000
96-46.913522312592100000
108108-16.713426352272100000
97-36.613428362061100000
10798-26.412333411441000000
87-46.41233342144100000
10699-16.3012374693100000
88-36.2012394683000000
10589-26.1011424952000000
78-46.001142495200000
104810-15.900044502200000
103710-25.80004651120000
102711-15.6000465102000
101611-25.6100475001000
100612-15.621147490100
99512-25.631147470100
98513-15.552246430100
97413-25.793343410000
96414-15.9134439370000
95314-25.21765343100
94315-14.2156730280
93215-23.2178526170
92216-13.7165415231
91217-0No141424
90016-3No2525
87019-00.210011
Total:7.4%0.62.23.616.522.720.722.07.13.41.00.10.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose 4 Montreal 0 +0.6
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124-125100
123181-0100000
122171-110000
121161-210000
120162-199100
119152-297210
118153-193420
117143-287840000
116144-178138010
133-3761580100
115134-264211302000
145-064211302000
114135-149271904000
124-346292005000
113125-231322818000
136-0343127170000
114-428332819000
112126-11831352121100
115-316313521311000
111116-27263951732100
127-09273951622100
105-462437619430100
110117-131837920650200
106-3216351021770300
109107-21928141911130600
118-011030131810110500
96-40826141812150700
108108-1041916131422010010
97-3031715121424012110
10798-201101471433016230
87-401101471433017240
10699-1051131038120480
88-3004929381215110
10589-202615363198200000
104810-1003022941510360000
103710-200101196911530000
102711-10100115496801000
101611-20000651678220100
100612-100230381521300
99512-201201761021600
98513-101006418221110
97413-200047261317310
96414-10030331322830
95314-20173303241761
94315-16300118301130
93215-23173104015920
92216-1215244141272
91217-01043141914
90117-15050
87019-030217412881
Total:201520695111516000000000000