Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances

Beat St. Louis 4-1, playoff odds up 5.2 to 84.7%
31 points   15 5-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Montreal 4 St. Louis 1 +3.2
+0.1
+0.7
Toronto 5 Tampa Bay 2 -0.3
+0.1
San Jose 2 Florida 3 (so)-0.3
Ottawa 3 Nashville 2 -0.3
+0.2
Winnipeg 3 Detroit 4 -0.2
Philadelphia 2 Minnesota 3 +0.2
Colorado 2 Washington 3 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus vs Boston+0.5*+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Buffalo vs NY Rangers+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.1
Edmonton vs New Jersey+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs NY Islanders+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.1
-0.2-0.3-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
131-153InYes1004,455*
130479-5In99.3%991270*
129469-6In99.61000513*
1284610-5In99.81000939*
1274510-6In99.39911,743*
1264511-5In98.999103,098*
1254411-6In98.398105,320*
1244412-5In97.398209,230*
1234312-6In96.4973014,996*
1224212-7In94.9954024,294*
1214213-6In92.6936037,982*
1204113-7In89.99181057,687*
1194114-6In86.38811186,463*
1184014-7In81.8851420125,650*
1174015-6In76.5811720178,757*
1163915-7In69.8762140248,950*
1153916-6In62.3702550340,514*
1143816-7In53.56329800453,480*
1133817-6In44.556331000590,204*
1123717-7In34.949371410752,480*
1113718-6In25.841401810938,974*
1103618-7In17.73342232001,150,888*
1093619-6In11.12643283001,375,725*
1083519-7In6.21942345001,613,819*
1073520-6100.0%3.113393980001,857,158*
1063420-7100.01.393543121002,093,557*
1053421-6100.00.553046162002,312,972*
1043321-7100.00.132546224002,502,857*
1033322-6100.00.0219452860002,662,108*
1023222-7100.00.01134134101002,770,514*
1013122-899.90.0093538152002,830,292*
1003123-799.6No062840214002,843,127*
993023-899.1No0321402781002,792,419*
983024-797.9No021536331320002,693,871*
972924-895.5No019313519400002,548,671*
962925-791.1No00624352681002,367,851*
952825-883.9No031831321420002,154,193*
942826-773.2No021225352151001,926,520*
932726-859.4No0171734281020001,692,017*
922727-744.2No0041129331751001,456,487*
912627-829.6No002622342592001,230,597*
902628-717.6No00131430311651001,020,842*
892528-89.2No00182333249200831,951*
882529-74.2No000415303016400663,681*
872429-81.7No00019243324810521,489*
862430-70.6No0001416313015300399,055*
852431-60.2No000210253422600302,539*
842331-70.0No000151834301110222,574*
832332-60.0No0021230351730162,725*
822232-70.0No001724382550115,580*
812233-6OutNo0041737329080,375*
802133-7OutNo00212333814155,231*
792134-6OutNo017274321237,244*
782034-7OutNo004214329324,321*
772035-6OutNo002154237515,898*
761935-7OutNo0193745810,056*
751936-6OutNo063349126,317*
741836-7OutNo042753163,854*
731837-6OutNo32154232,218*
721737-7OutNo011754281,324*
711738-6OutNo1105534737*
701638-7OutNo45442394*
691538-8OutNo74350224*
681640-5OutNo44055121*
671540-6OutNo5316461*
661440-7OutNo3356131*
651441-6OutNo89213*
641341-7OutNo13888*
631342-6OutNo17836*
31-62OutNo1004,249*
Total:84.7%4.7%81421191396422100051,234,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupPittsburghTampa BayDetroitNY IslandersOttawaWashingtonBostonTorontoNY RangersFloridaPhiladelphiaNew JerseyCarolinaColumbusBuffalo
153610-05.2%099416515156106321
139536-2NoYes
137505-6NoYes
136495-7NoYes
135507-4No5050
134497-5No333333
133487-67.411111115151174114
132488-53.5291471947167124
131478-65.2671184211310106221
130479-54.81910219516136122121
129469-66.001111215512157115320
1284610-54.2089317417146114421
1274510-65.008103154181651154110
1264511-55.408113154171551243210
1254411-64.80811316517154124421
1244412-55.008103164171551143210
1234312-65.308103164161551243210
1224212-74.909103164171551243210
1214213-64.809113164161551243210
1204113-75.009113164161551243210
1194114-65.009113164161541243210
1184014-74.909113164161541243210
1174015-65.0010123164161541243110
1163915-75.0010123164161441133110
1153916-65.0011133164161441133110
1143816-74.8011142174161441133110
1133817-64.8012152173161431132100
1123717-74.8013162173161331032100
1113718-64.7014172173161331022100
1103618-74.601518217315123922100
1093619-64.601719217215122922100
1083519-74.501821117215112921100
1073520-64.401922117214112811100
1063420-74.312123117214102811000
1053421-64.212224117114101711000
1043321-74.122224116113101711000
1033322-64.03232511611391711000
1023222-73.94232511611391710000
1013122-83.86242411511281600000
1003123-73.79242421411181600000
993023-83.612242321311070500000
983024-73.51623223121960500000
972924-83.42023203111850400000
962925-73.1232118391640300000
952825-82.9261916371530200000
942826-72.5271612361420200000
932827-62.025139341210100000
922727-71.52096221110100000
912728-61.01564110100000000
902628-70.6932110000000000
892629-60.3521000000000000
882529-70.1210000000000000
872530-60.1100000000000000
862430-70.000000000000000
852431-60.000000000000
842331-70.000000000000
832332-6No00000
822333-5No0
31-81No
Total:3.3%9.018.018.01.811.91.29.77.11.05.30.80.60.30.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal 4 St. Louis 1 -0.7
Winnipeg 3 Detroit 4 +0.1
Ottawa 3 Nashville 2 +0.1
Toronto 5 Tampa Bay 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs Boston-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
131-153100
130479-5991
129469-61000
1284610-51000
1274510-69901
1264511-599010
1254411-698010
1244412-597020
1234312-696030
1224212-795140
1214213-693160
1204113-7901810
1194114-68621101
1184014-782314020
1174015-6764170200
1163915-77062104000
1153916-66282505000
1143816-7541029070000
1133817-64412330100000
1123717-73514361140010
1113718-626153911700100
1103618-71816402221020000
1093619-611153942621030000
1083519-76133662842050000
1073520-631031830630800000
1063420-717251128105011001000
1053421-605181224148016102000
1043321-70312131818101202004000
1033322-601712112012124410600000
1023222-701310619133257101001000
1013122-800272151252312301412000
1003123-7015111971818401924000
993023-8003076812216123480100
983024-70020338621822581302000
972924-8001011621783231318140000
962925-7000011411265171823381000
952825-80000307461121266133000
942826-70000103265202312196100
932726-8000101152151718241331000
922727-7000000031109202420920000
912627-8000000206418192517720000
902628-700001031131224241561000
892528-80000010751726231351000
882529-70000004292026221241000
872429-800000114122226201031000
862430-7000010151424261882000
852431-600000271625251672000
842331-700000039192724134100
832332-600001411222721103000
822232-7000016152627176100
812233-60002820292512300
802133-7001413252920710
792134-600271930271330
782034-700131226322160
772035-6017193328101
761935-70013133034172
751936-600182338245
741836-70141837337
731837-60212353812
721737-7018294616
711738-604225123
701638-71125433
691538-81164241
681640-5134245
671540-683359
661440-764252
651441-6892
641341-71388
631342-61783
31-62100
Total:5310486429721856343221111000000