Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances

Beat NY Islanders 4-3 (so), playoff odds up 2.7 to 70.7%
18 points   8 4-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
NY Islanders 3 Montreal 4 (so)+4.1
+0.3
+0.7
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Philadelphia+0.2*+0.0*+0.0*-0.2*-0.2-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
NY Rangers vs Montreal-4.6-0.6-0.4+3.5+3.9+4.2
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
-0.9-0.2-0.2+0.7+0.7+0.8
Columbus vs Dallas-0.3-0.3*-0.1*-0.1*+0.1+0.4
Toronto vs Vegas-0.2-0.2*-0.1*-0.1*+0.1+0.4
-0.0*-0.0*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
St. Louis vs Carolina+0.3*+0.0*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1*-0.0+0.1
-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
Detroit vs Vancouver-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*-0.2*+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-154In99.4%100872*
1224812-8In97.81000368*
1214813-7In98.2991651*
1204814-6In97.299001,029*
1194714-7In95.499011,768*
1184715-6In92.598122,549*
1174615-7In89.097133,780*
1164616-6In86.3951305,659*
1154516-7In82.2932508,165*
1144416-8In76.09136011,605*
1134417-7In68.487490015,844*
1124317-8In60.2835120021,548*
1114318-7In49.677715128,744*
1104218-8In39.9709201037,544*
1094219-7In29.46211242048,033*
1084119-8In20.354143030060,704*
1074120-7In12.84416355074,645*
1064020-8In7.236173980089,672*
1054021-7In3.52718431110106,466*
1043921-8In1.41918461620124,860*
1033922-7100.0%0.512174721300141,401*
1023822-8100.00.17154627500159,904*
1013823-7100.00.04124332810176,146*
1003723-8100.00.02939371210190,729*
993724-799.90.017334117200203,863*
983624-899.7No042642224000213,225*
973625-799.1No032041288100219,005*
963525-897.5No01143831132000221,656*
953526-793.9No0193232205100220,727*
943426-887.1No06262926102000215,937*
933427-775.6No003202329176100206,673*
923327-860.5No0214162924123100195,576*
913328-743.2No019924281972000181,772*
903228-827.2No0064172726145100166,278*
893229-714.9No003210222822103000148,717*
883129-87.1No00215152627176100131,335*
873130-73.0No0102920292412300114,350*
863030-81.1No000141326291971098,539*
853031-70.4No000027193026123081,580*
842931-80.1No00013132630206167,895*
832932-70.0No0001720322711254,804*
822832-80.0No0001314293218343,594*
812833-70.0No00028243525634,555*
802733-8OutNo0141734331126,699*
792734-7OutNo0021130391720,119*
782634-8OutNo001725432514,888*
772635-7OutNo00419443310,926*
762535-8OutNo021443427,944*
752536-7OutNo011038515,549*
742436-8OutNo1634603,919*
732437-7OutNo0427692,630*
722337-8OutNo0223741,863*
712237-9OutNo120791,244*
702238-8OutNo11386771*
692239-7OutNo11287478*
682139-8OutNo0991326*
672140-7OutNo496194*
662040-8OutNo892128*
652041-7OutNo39776*
641840-10OutNo59542*
18-63OutNo100393*
Total:70.7%3.1%851819129765432214,230,956

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayNY IslandersBostonTorontoPittsburghNew JerseyWashingtonBuffaloColumbusCarolinaFloridaNY RangersPhiladelphiaOttawaDetroit
154680-08.3%631094119136566444
132548-6NoYes
131549-533.3333333
1305511-2No5050
1295411-314.32914142914
1285210-6No2155551116555511
1275110-712.08482844168884
1265111-62.12215134242399926
1255011-72.81341111476108638144
1245012-611.76113124561348133111
1234912-77.2831110754165676344
1224812-87.17410117771337102482
1214813-77.1821013556145894442
1204814-68.0641111666126695463
1194714-78.165119767135684482
1184715-67.6731010667126684472
1174615-77.0641010677136784462
1164616-67.0741110676136694462
1154516-76.9731111666135694463
1144416-86.9741112666126584462
1134417-77.0841213666125584462
1124317-86.8931312666125584462
1114318-76.8931414555135584352
1104218-86.71131515555125573352
1094219-76.51231616555124473352
1084119-86.51331717444114473342
1074120-76.41521918444114372242
1064020-86.41621919333113362241
1054021-76.11822120333113362241
1043921-86.12022221222102261131
1033922-75.92022322222102251131
1023822-85.92232322222102251131
1013823-75.62232323222101151131
1003723-85.5224232222291151131
993724-75.4226222233291151131
983624-85.4227212133382141121
973625-75.2219201943382241121
963525-85.12110191844472241121
953526-74.92012171644462231121
943426-84.42012151544452231110
933427-73.81811131244341121010
923327-83.0159101033331110010
913328-72.11177722221110000
903228-81.3845411110000000
893229-70.7423211110000000
883129-80.3211100000000000
873130-70.1101100000000000
863131-60.1000000000000000
853031-70.000000000000000
843032-60.000000000
832831-90.00000000
822832-8No0000
812833-7No0
18-80No
Total:3.9%14.75.314.013.62.52.52.45.81.51.43.10.80.81.80.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders 3 Montreal 4 (so)-0.8
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Rangers vs Montreal+0.9+0.1+0.1-0.7-0.8-0.8
Toronto vs Vegas+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
127-154100
1265111-6982
1255011-7100
1245012-6991
1234912-7991
1224812-89820
1214813-79811
1204814-697200
1194714-795301
1184715-692512
1174615-789813
1164616-6869130
1154516-782112500
1144416-8761530600
1134417-76819409000
1124317-860235012000
1114318-750277015001
1104218-8403190191010
1094219-729331112310200
1084119-8203313127303000
1074120-71332132305105000
1064020-87281433081070000
1054021-73231352912201100100
1043921-81171172517301510200
1033922-70129819226019203000
1023822-80769132581224005000
1013823-704397251022381080100
1003723-80228321114211320111100
993724-701161161061619501522000
983624-80040107910238118540000
973625-70030551052310219970100
963525-8001022921911516151212000
953526-700111701310911211545100
943426-8000508712623161093100
933427-7000030441322113171472100
923327-80002111111572215147310000
913328-7000100809321121815831000
903228-800000504116615201710410000
893229-7000032010281722191151000
883129-8000021051391823201252000
873130-7001002014101823211362000
863030-800010014101924211362000
853031-700000001410192422135100
842931-8000001411202521124100
832932-700000151222262011310
822832-8000002614242618820
812833-700000281827261541
802733-800131023292392
792734-70015162830164
782634-8000292333257
772635-7001516323312
762535-800212283820
752536-7017224129
742436-8003174238
732437-702133847
722337-8183656
712237-9053064
702238-832374
692239-721780
682139-811584
672140-71891
662040-81388
652041-7397
641840-10595
631942-7496
621741-10892
18-61100
Total:3523563367336645333333222211110