Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances

Beat NY Islanders 4-3 (ot), playoff odds up 3.7 to 17.1%
27 points   12 11-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs
NY Islanders 3 Detroit 4 (ot)+2.9
Nashville 2 Philadelphia 4 -0.2
Carolina 1 Tampa Bay 0 (ot)*-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Pittsburgh vs Ottawa+0.2*-0.2*-0.1*-0.2-0.3-0.2
Boston vs Florida*+0.0-0.3-0.2*-0.2*-0.2+0.1
Washington vs Buffalo*-0.0*-0.1-0.2*+0.1*-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Detroit finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
117-139InYes100339*
116418-7In73.3%7372015*
115419-6In81.891922*
1144110-5In66.773181051*
1134010-6In58.2632710110*
1123910-7In50.5572815188*
1113911-6In38.0473420347*
1103912-5In31.63739240560*
1093812-6In19.92742310965*
1083712-7In11.720423621,526*
1073713-6In7.414424222,568*
1063613-7In3.683949404,025*
1053614-6In1.243652806,199*
1043514-7In0.42305611108,914*
1033515-6In0.112458161012,966*
1023415-7100.0%0.0018572120018,157*
1013416-699.9No013532850025,394*
1003316-799.8No094834710033,956*
993317-699.4No06413910410045,483*
983217-797.8No33341137200058,184*
973218-694.1No224411512510073,682*
963118-787.2No11739141710300090,640*
953119-675.2No011331120167100109,471*
943019-759.3No062672023134100129,067*
933020-641.8No0319416262192000148,804*
922920-726.0No02122102427166100168,954*
912921-614.3No0171618282412300187,856*
902821-77.1No0402112429208100202,800*
892721-83.1No00201617282714410216,437*
882722-71.2No0100210243022920224,743*
872622-80.5No0000151629291540229,952*
862623-70.2No000002924322381229,630*
852624-60.0No000015163131142224,225*
842524-70.0No0002102635225213,949*
832525-60.0No000151935309201,031*
822425-70.0No0000213323715185,100*
812426-6OutNo0018274223166,593*
802326-7OutNo004204431147,146*
792226-8OutNo002144241127,563*
782227-7OutNo00193951107,964*
772228-6OutNo006346089,143*
762128-7OutNo003286972,245*
752129-6OutNo002227657,972*
742029-7OutNo01178245,028*
732030-6OutNo01138634,195*
721930-7OutNo0099025,731*
711931-6OutNo079318,515*
701831-7OutNo049613,479*
691832-6OutNo03979,330*
681732-7OutNo02986,473*
671733-6OutNo2984,364*
661633-7OutNo1992,742*
651634-6OutNo01001,818*
641534-7OutNo01001,109*
631535-6OutNo100698*
621435-7OutNo0100413*
611436-6OutNo100273*
601336-7OutNo199141*
27-59OutNo100495*
Total:17.1%0.0%01472357910111314143,989,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Detroit finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNY RangersMontrealColumbusPittsburghWashingtonBostonTampa BayOttawaPhiladelphiaNew JerseyTorontoFloridaCarolinaBuffaloNY Islanders
139560-02.1%3231097118111356515
121435-8NoYes
120436-7NoYes
119448-4NoYes
118427-7No333333
117428-6No2575
116418-76.777771313207713
1154210-44.551814514189595
1144110-52.0662661641016824142
1134010-60.92537117111168119442
1123910-71.61251451011129765625
1113911-62.93321212129127957414
1103912-51.83439121412117667411
1093812-62.3344971313128666421
1083712-72.4234981613126577312
1073713-61.8353781813125677221
1063613-71.7273771715155477221
1053614-62.5283651915154477221
1043514-72.22102552016163378121
1033515-62.02102442116163388121
1023415-71.82122332217172288120
1013416-61.92132322217172188120
1003316-71.82142222218171188120
993317-61.83163222117171188020
983217-71.74174112016161188020
3116-91.55174112016151177020
973218-61.46195111814140077020
3117-81.56185111714140076020
3319-41.56185111814140077020
963118-71.48186111512120066010
3017-91.48186111512120065010
953119-61.28176111210100054010
3018-81.2816611121090044010
3220-41.181661112990054010
943019-70.98136119770033010
2918-90.97136119770033010
933020-60.7695116550022010
3121-40.7695116550022010
922920-70.4453004330011000
912921-60.223200222001100
902821-70.1111001110000000
892822-60.000000100000000
882722-70.0000000000000
872723-60.000000000000
862623-70.00000000000
852624-60.0000000000
842625-50.000000
832626-4No0000
822526-5No00
27-81No
Total:0.3%1.53.21.20.30.33.12.42.40.10.11.11.10.00.30.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders 3 Detroit 4 (ot)-0.8
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs Buffalo-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0
Boston vs Florida-0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
117-139100
116418-773720
115419-68299
1144110-56761810
1134010-65852710
1123910-75162815
1113911-638934190
1103912-532538023010
1093812-620741128030
1083712-712841130162
1073713-676393311102
1063613-74535430216400
1053614-6133052632307000
1043514-702237215300100110
1033515-601169156370130310
1023415-7001088642115162000
1013416-606845423161105000
1003316-70361338614317070100
993317-60150230911424010040100
983217-70301211164311131702000
973218-602001212343321311205100
963118-7010061112314122170103000
953119-6000380124783200167100
943019-700015001694319123134100
933020-60030091022132252192000
922920-7002004801732327176100
912921-60010160133162725134100
902821-7000400128222822102000
892721-800002000131325281982000
882722-70010001516262616620000
872622-80000000271826241461000
862623-70000000029192623135100
852624-6000001310202622124100
842524-700001412222620103100
832525-600015142426198200
822425-70002717262616510
812426-60000392128241230
802326-7000141325292071
792226-800027193027132
782227-70003122632215
772228-6001720342910
762128-7000313313616
752129-60018254125
742029-7004194234
732030-6002134044
721930-70183655
711931-6053064
701831-7032472
691832-6021979
681732-711485
671733-601189
661633-70892
651634-60595
641534-7397
631535-6397
621435-7199
611436-6199
601336-7199
591337-6199
27-58100
Total:000000211042103156777766666553