Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances

Lost to Montreal 1-2 (ot), playoff odds down 4.7 to 63.7%
8 points   3 1-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Montreal 2 Detroit 1 (ot)-0.5
*-0.1
-0.2
Colorado 3 Florida 4 (ot)-0.5
Calgary 1 Tampa Bay 2 (ot)-0.3
New Jersey 3 NY Rangers 4 (ot)*-0.3
Boston 5 San Jose 3 -0.2
+0.1
Chicago 4 Philadelphia 0 +0.2
-0.1
Winnipeg 3 Carolina 1 +0.2
NY Islanders 2 Toronto 5 -0.1
+0.1
Nashville 4 Arizona 3 (so)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa vs Toronto+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.3*+0.0
-0.0-0.0-0.0*+0.0*-0.0+0.1
Edmonton vs Washington+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Anaheim vs Buffalo+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1
-0.0-0.0-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Detroit finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
129-160InYes10013,196*
1285612-8In99.7%1000784*
1275613-7In99.91001,430*
1265513-8In100.010002,386*
1255514-7In99.910004,042*
1245414-8In99.7100006,873*
1235415-7In99.61000011,331*
1225315-8In99.41000017,976*
1215316-7In98.91000028,608*
1205216-8In98.4990043,845*
1195217-7In97.6991066,420*
1185117-8In96.39911099,189*
1175118-7In94.598110143,662*
1165018-8In92.297210206,557*
1154918-9In88.596320290,094*
1144919-8In84.094430401,532*
1134819-9In78.191540543,199*
1124820-8In70.7877600723,926*
1114720-9In62.1829800947,373*
1104721-8In52.0771211001,221,165*
1094621-9In41.5701614101,543,448*
1084622-8In30.96119181001,920,445*
1074522-9In21.25223232002,343,041*
1064523-8In13.14326283002,816,898*
1054423-9100.0%7.133293350003,334,137*
1044424-8100.03.324303781003,882,004*
1034324-9100.01.3163041121004,439,285*
1024325-8100.00.41027431630005,006,472*
1014225-9100.00.1624442240005,551,393*
1004226-8100.00.03194327710006,051,097*
994126-999.80.011539321120006,500,010*
984127-899.50.0010343615400006,872,752*
974027-998.6No072837197100007,147,435*
964028-896.2No0421372212310007,325,191*
953928-991.2No0215342318720007,396,424*
943929-882.1No0110282022134100007,346,057*
933829-968.4No0162315241993000007,187,424*
923830-851.5No031610222416620006,924,298*
913730-934.5No0211516252312410006,573,869*
903731-820.2No017210222720920006,144,043*
893631-910.4No004151526261661005,650,581*
883632-84.7No002029202823113005,129,780*
873532-91.9No001014142528197104,583,370*
863533-80.7No000002819292613304,031,207*
853433-90.3No00001413263020613,495,893*
843434-80.1No00000272031271222,983,589*
833334-90.0No00000141328321842,505,366*
823335-80.0No000002823352672,074,977*
813235-90.0No000014173433121,694,144*
803236-80.0No00002113039181,362,659*
793136-90.0No0000172542251,078,398*
783137-8OutNo0004194333841,645*
773037-9OutNo002144242645,774*
763038-8OutNo00193951488,801*
752938-9OutNo00063459363,745*
742939-8OutNo0042967266,300*
732839-9OutNo0022473192,302*
722840-8OutNo011979137,795*
712740-9OutNo01158496,231*
702741-8OutNo0128866,295*
692641-9OutNo0099145,258*
682642-8OutNo069330,318*
672542-9OutNo059520,117*
662543-8OutNo049612,924*
652443-9OutNo02988,284*
642444-8OutNo1995,129*
632344-9OutNo01993,177*
622345-8OutNo1991,908*
612245-9OutNo01001,196*
602246-8OutNo100679*
592146-9OutNo199394*
582046-10OutNo0100242*
8-57OutNo10012,611*
Total:63.7%4.0%8817167766655432148,910,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Detroit finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonTampa BayOttawaPittsburghMontrealColumbusNY IslandersNew JerseyNY RangersTorontoBostonFloridaPhiladelphiaCarolinaBuffalo
160760-08.2%689687777987552
1366210-475.025252525
135609-7No25252525
1346010-611.111112211221111
1335910-75.79366661162061166
1325810-84.2610266415621386104
1315811-78.161189104486378492
1305711-810.76984846781098653
1295712-77.1497686877899543
1285612-88.8597668778898543
1275613-77.6499687667998543
1265513-88.5588797666898562
1255514-78.2598687776898553
1245414-87.9598696677988553
1235415-77.6688687777988542
1225315-88.1688696776897552
1215316-78.0589696776988553
1205216-88.1588697776988552
1195217-78.2688697776998543
1185117-88.3588697776998553
1175118-78.1588697776988553
1165018-88.1588696776988553
1154918-98.1599696676998542
1144919-88.0599696676998542
1134819-98.1599696666998542
1124820-88.15996106666988442
1114720-98.0510105106666998442
1104721-87.9510105106666998442
1094621-97.9511115116665998442
1084622-87.8511115115555998442
1074522-97.8412125125555998432
1064523-87.6413134135554998332
1054423-97.5414144144444998332
1044424-87.4415154154444998322
1034324-97.3316163154443998222
1024325-87.13171631633331098222
1014225-97.03171731633321098222
1004226-86.83181731733321098112
994126-96.73181831733221098112
984127-86.54181831733221098112
974027-96.3518174163322998112
964028-86.1517174163322987111
953928-95.7616155143332876111
943929-85.1614145133322665111
933829-94.2612115103321554101
923830-83.1598482221433001
913730-92.1366352111222000
903731-81.2243231110111000
893631-90.6122120000111000
883632-80.3011010000000000
873532-90.1000000000000000
863533-80.0000000000000000
853534-70.0000000000000000
843434-80.0000000000000000
833435-70.00000000000000
823335-80.000000000000
813134-110.00000000
803236-80.00000
793237-7No0
8-78No
Total:4.3%3.210.510.12.99.72.32.32.11.75.65.44.71.11.01.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal 2 Detroit 1 (ot)+0.1
Calgary 1 Tampa Bay 2 (ot)+0.1
Colorado 3 Florida 4 (ot)+0.1
New Jersey 3 NY Rangers 4 (ot)*+0.0
NY Islanders 2 Toronto 5 +0.0
Boston 5 San Jose 3 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Toronto-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
129-160100
1285612-810000
1275613-71000
1265513-81000
1255514-710000
1245414-8100000
1235415-7100000
1225315-899000
1215316-799100
1205216-898100
1195217-798210
1185117-8962110
1175118-79531100
1165018-8925210
1154918-989730200
1144919-88410403000
1134819-97813504000
1124820-871167060000
1114720-9622090800000
1104721-8522412011000000
1094621-9412815114001000
1084622-831301811710010000
1074522-921312122021020000
1064523-813292242331030000
1054423-9726226256205000000
1044424-8321219249408001000
1034324-9115171221137011101000
1024325-8010131516171111511020000
1014225-906816101914217310400000
1004226-803515518164186307010000
994126-90121221416716106010120000
984127-800191914101214100142400000
974027-9006059137151421647010000
964028-80040251431416415711131000
953928-900201212110158121116272000
943929-8001001905111271317512510000
933829-90010006027133121591810310000
923830-800003013121991319179310000
913730-90000200110054131522178310000
903731-80001007021991923178310000
893631-9000000401053112123179310000
883632-8000002000215122123181041000
873532-900001001015132124191041000
863533-8000000000025132124191041000
853433-90000000002613222419103100
843434-800000000026152325188200
833334-9000000012817252516610
823335-800000001392027241240
813235-900000141324282081
803236-80000027182928143
793136-9000013112532226
783137-80001619333011
773037-90000313303618
763038-800018254026
752938-900014194135
742939-8002134044
732839-900193654
722840-80163163
712740-90032670
702741-80022177
692641-9011683
682642-8011287
672542-90991
662543-80793
652443-90595
642444-80397
632344-90298
622345-8199
612245-90100
602246-8199
592146-9199
582046-100100
8-57100
Total:454444444443434344433333222211