Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Los Angeles 3-2, playoff odds up 5.2 to 53.2%
4 points   2 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 +5.3
+0.3
+0.8
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Anaheim vs Minnesota+0.2-0.5*-0.3-0.7-0.7*+0.1
Vegas vs Arizona+0.2-0.4*-0.4*-0.6*-0.3*+0.0
St. Louis vs San Jose*+0.1-0.7*-0.1*-0.4-0.6*+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
86-110InYes100589*
853810-5In98.6%1000359*
843811-4In98.39910632*
833711-5In96.59910956*
823712-4In95.098201,545*
813612-5In92.297212,424*
803512-6In88.995313,538*
793513-5In81.892525,133*
783413-6In72.788947,332*
773414-5In63.382135010,070*
763314-6In50.775169013,719*
753315-5In36.6652113017,877*
743215-6In24.25328191023,318*
733216-5In13.44132262028,937*
723116-6In6.42834344035,892*
713117-5100.0%2.417344170043,279*
703017-6100.00.692948131050,719*
693018-599.90.14225022200058,009*
682918-699.70.01144732600065,277*
672919-599.0No0737421211072,053*
662819-696.7No03254620330076,738*
652820-590.7No01134127881080,668*
642720-679.0No053026181730083,503*
632721-560.6No01161726261120083,750*
622621-639.5No077252723920082,978*
612622-520.8No0221719302181079,924*
602522-69.4No01099253019610075,774*
592523-53.3No000331428301651069,642*
582423-61.0No000116193127133063,977*
572424-50.3No0000292433248156,061*
562324-60.1No00000313293317348,643*
552325-50.1No00016213528841,480*
542225-60.0No000021232381534,728*
532226-50.0No0001624432628,417*
522126-60.0No0000317433722,953*
512127-50.0No00110385117,903*
502027-6OutNo006326213,850*
492028-5OutNo03257210,331*
481928-6OutNo0119797,367*
471929-5OutNo013865,461*
461829-6OutNo010903,838*
451830-5OutNo07932,643*
441730-6OutNo4961,761*
431731-5OutNo3971,125*
421631-6OutNo298716*
411632-5OutNo298444*
401532-6OutNo199266*
391533-5OutNo199183*
381433-6OutNo199103*
4-37OutNo100245*
Total:53.2%3.6%77131376666666551,437,130

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasNew JerseyPhiladelphiaWashingtonNY IslandersSt. LouisMinnesotaArizonaAnaheimBostonPittsburghNY RangersLos AngelesSan JoseBuffalo
110530-07.8%2213201612810
96456-2NoYes
94425-6NoYes
93437-3NoYes
92427-420.02020202020
91417-516.788825817888
90407-67.114771471471477
89419-3No949429132117724132
88409-49.01031313613123761064
87399-54.7935749116654212133
863910-44.512342212109934710114
853810-57.0934441013811544984
843811-44.91233341111913453894
833711-56.1104444108912464994
823712-46.1103554911109544975
813612-56.49445410999455985
803512-66.61055449999554995
793513-56.41055559999555984
783413-66.0955559889555885
773414-56.0955568998555885
763314-66.31055559988565775
753315-56.21055559989555884
743215-66.1105555101099555884
733216-56.41144441010109444884
723116-66.313444411111010443993
713117-56.114333312121011333993
703017-66.41522221313111122210102
693018-56.51622221414121222110101
682918-66.11611111414121211111101
672919-56.11612111414121211110111
3020-36.11612211414121211110101
662819-66.01622221413121211110101
2718-86.1162222131311111211091
652820-55.814333212111010222991
2921-35.714333211111010222881
642720-64.91233339988222661
632721-53.8933337655222441
622621-62.5622224433111221
612622-51.3411112222111110
602623-40.6201001111000110
592523-50.2100000000000000
582524-40.1000000000000000
572424-50.000000000000
562425-40.00000000000
552224-70.00000000
542326-4No000000
532226-5No000
522429-0No00
512026-7No0
4-50No
Total:3.3%7.81.71.81.71.66.56.45.65.61.41.41.24.84.71.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 -1.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina*+0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.1-0.0*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
St. Louis vs San Jose*-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Anaheim vs Minnesota-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.1+0.1*-0.0
Vegas vs Arizona-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
86-110100
853810-59910
843811-498110
833711-597210
823712-495320
813612-592521
803512-689631
793513-5821152
783413-67315904
773414-563191205000
763314-651241619000
753315-5372920113000
743215-624292531711100
733216-51327266223102000
723116-66222410256404000
713117-5215201424107070000
703017-61813161915131121110
693018-50461611181831732020000
682918-6012125151972075060000
672919-50171915121712121111110
662819-600304714915183173303000
652820-500101210312189198808100
642720-60000505111313141621551000
632721-5000101411512206201451000
622621-600016161411152115720000
612622-500020261171722181041000
602522-6000100271715222114721000
592523-500003015132022181151000
582423-6000010014101722211472100
572424-50000001371522221793100
562324-6000000261321241911410
552325-50000025122125201130
542225-60000151323272092
532226-500016152629185
522126-60002820312811
512127-5001312283621
502027-6016214131
492028-5003133944
481928-60183457
471929-5042768
461829-60022176
451830-511584
441730-61990
431731-51693
421631-6595
411632-5496
401532-6397
391533-5298
381433-6199
371434-5298
4-36100
Total:4343434343434342444333333333332