Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances

Lost to Philadelphia 0-3, playoff odds down 15.1 to 28%
2 points   1 3-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -5.5
-0.4
-0.6
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)-0.4
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)-0.3
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)*+0.2
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.5-0.6-0.4+0.4+0.2+0.9
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.7*-0.0*+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.6
+0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
87-106In99.8%100442*
86408-4In97.199169*
85398-5In97.39721111*
84399-4In97.19900210*
83389-5In93.99712427*
823810-4In90.59514777*
813710-5In88.2952401,266*
803711-4In80.3902802,127*
793611-5In72.78641003,563*
783511-6In62.380614105,675*
773512-5In51.272819108,533*
763412-6In38.06111253012,821*
753413-5100.0%26.651143050018,703*
743313-6100.015.740173681026,576*
733314-599.97.9281841121036,868*
723214-699.83.41819431730050,085*
713215-599.41.010174324510065,349*
703115-698.50.251440309010083,901*
693116-596.60.02113535150300105,600*
683016-693.10.0172836210610129,880*
673017-587.3No04203526211200155,025*
662917-678.6No02133128416410181,180*
652918-567.1No01824259229200207,545*
642818-653.9No0417171526154100232,558*
632819-540.3No02119182523102000253,535*
622719-627.7No0164171927187100270,784*
612720-517.5No003113112526155100282,184*
602620-610.0No00108517282412300289,605*
592621-55.3No0010529222922920288,533*
582521-62.5No0002041326291861282,200*
572522-51.2No0001017193027132270,539*
562422-60.5No00003112533226253,933*
552423-50.2No00001518333111231,617*
542323-60.1No00000211293820207,476*
532324-50.0No00016224131181,564*
522224-60.0No0003154042155,791*
512225-5OutNo00193654130,824*
502125-6OutNo00053064108,134*
492126-5OutNo0003247386,059*
482026-6OutNo001188167,640*
472027-5OutNo01138652,293*
461927-6OutNo0099139,527*
451928-5OutNo0069428,564*
441828-6OutNo049620,802*
431829-5OutNo039714,546*
421729-6OutNo2989,886*
411730-5OutNo1996,897*
401630-6OutNo1994,360*
391631-5OutNo1992,882*
381531-6OutNo01001,827*
371532-5OutNo01001,042*
361432-6OutNo0100642*
351433-5OutNo0100368*
2-34OutNo100835*
Total:28.0%0.7%226865778891011134,874,180

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealTampa BayFloridaCarolinaPhiladelphiaWashingtonNew JerseyTorontoNY IslandersOttawaNY RangersBostonDetroitPittsburghColumbus
106520-05.4%118141513013191817
92446-2NoYes
91425-5No333333
90437-2No333333
89427-312.513131313132513
88417-418.2182727189
87407-511.5481219419412488
86408-42.93137191712163496
85398-57.22329151212273911716
84399-47.1112111112133151101197
83389-56.3353111110931418021010
823810-45.934391211113112102279
813710-55.7433109111231131112811
803711-46.05441010101159391279
793611-55.655589101059382389
783511-65.56658910959482378
773512-55.5787789878472467
763412-65.7998777787663556
753413-55.3111196666106653555
743313-65.31313115555115743644
733314-55.11414134444123834633
723214-65.11515143333133825722
713215-54.91616152333132925722
703115-64.71616152333142925711
693116-54.61615143333132815711
683016-64.21514133333122825711
2915-84.11514133333123825611
673017-53.91413123444113724611
3118-33.91413123444113724611
662917-63.51211103444103623511
3018-43.61212113444103623511
2816-83.3121110344493623511
652918-53.110108344482513411
2817-72.91098334382513411
3019-32.91098344483513411
642818-62.4887333362412311
2717-82.3877333362312311
632819-51.7665333242211210
622719-61.2443222231111100
612720-50.7322211121100100
602620-60.4111111111000000
592621-50.2111100000000000
582521-60.1000000000000000
572522-50.1000000000000000
562422-60.0000000000000000
552423-50.0000000000000000
542424-40.0000000000000
532223-70.000000000000
522325-4No0000
2-51No
Total:1.3%4.24.03.61.41.41.41.43.31.02.00.61.11.60.50.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +1.1
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.1
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
89-106100
88417-4919
87418-3100
86408-49711
85398-59721
84399-497200
83389-594312
823810-490414
813710-58862400
803711-4809280
793611-57313401000
783511-662186014010
773512-5512180180010
763412-63823110241030
753413-52724131281050000
743313-61624152323170010
733314-582015333520120010
723214-6315135309401700300
713215-519107231370221050100
703115-6056814151012631900100
693116-50237714122265301500300
683016-601162101242196020106100
673017-500405961312110242211200
662917-6002024751114223540165100
652918-500101261713416990219200
642818-600004038681014123176100
632819-500020147271531923134100
622719-600010015031251022221241000
612720-50000003016741423221351000
602620-600000100261514222215721000
592621-5000101401513212318941000
582521-60000020014111924201251000
572522-50000010014101823211462000
562422-600000139172323157200
552423-500000013817242416620
542323-6000001381826241551
532324-500001310202824122
522224-6000014132531216
512225-50001618313112
502125-6000311273721
492126-500016214032
482026-60003143944
472027-500193555
461927-60052966
451928-50032375
441828-6011782
431829-5011287
421729-60891
411730-50694
401630-60496
391631-50397
381531-6298
371532-5199
361432-6199
351433-5199
341333-6199
331435-3199
2-32100
Total:1111211132214232555554555555555