Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances

Tied with Vancouver 3-3 (20:00 3rd), playoff odds down 0.2 to 43.8%
54 points   24 17-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Columbus 1 Montreal 4 -1.3
Carolina 1 Ottawa 4 +1.0
Arizona 2 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)-0.5
Washington 0 NY Islanders 2 +0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs Buffalo-6.3-0.4-0.4+5.6+6.0+6.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Montreal vs Philadelphia-1.1-1.1-0.7+0.9+0.6+2.5
Minnesota vs Columbus+1.3*+0.2*-0.2-1.0-1.0-1.1
Boston vs NY Rangers-0.4-0.6-0.5+0.4*+0.2+1.2
Vegas vs Pittsburgh+0.4*-0.1*+0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124350-0In86.7%8713474
117-118InNo1004*
116303-2In22.233679*
115293-3In7.01484243*
114294-2In8.214480285*
113284-3In3.26913188*
112285-2In1.350905455*
111275-3In0.8318790973*
110265-4In0.221831501,900*
109266-3In0.010762213,674*
108256-4In0.0006929206,924*
107257-3In0.00058374011,830*
106247-4InNo0049447020,134*
105248-3InNo00395011131,416*
104238-4100.0%No002952171048,073*
103239-3100.0No002152243070,746*
102229-499.9No01449315099,834*
1012210-399.7No094438100135,259*
1002110-498.9No53641161176,126*
992111-397.2No329412530223,697*
982011-493.6No121373460272,476*
972012-387.4No1153042120320,002*
961912-478.3No01022462110362,043*
951812-566.9No0615463210397,708*
941813-453.9No039424330422,946*
931713-540.7No0253453600432,455*
921714-428.9No01226601000429,211*
911614-519.0No001186317100411,812*
901615-411.6No000116224200381,699*
891515-56.5No0065633500343,333*
881516-43.2No00347419100298,341*
871416-51.4No001364615200251,310*
861417-40.6No001264623400204,705*
851317-50.2No001743309100160,594*
841318-40.1No010353715300122,563*
831218-50.0No0526392361090,493*
821219-40.0No021635311320065,074*
811220-30.0No01928352161044,383*
801120-4OutNo04193429112029,433*
791121-3OutNo02112834205018,892*
781021-4OutNo01520352810211,899*
771022-3OutNo021229351837,002*
76922-4OutNo1621372874,066*
75923-3OutNo02143338142,207*
74823-4OutNo0082642231,221*
73824-3OutNo05174532642*
72724-4OutNo1113949311*
71725-3OutNo1252667132*
70625-4OutNo3316775*
69626-3OutNo277322*
67-68OutNo10018*
66427-4OutNo50502
54035-0OutNo100474
Total:43.8%0.0%0029122133145210005,919,388

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayTorontoNY IslandersPittsburghWashingtonBostonColumbusMontrealCarolinaNY RangersFloridaNew JerseyOttawaDetroitPhiladelphia
124350-01.3%16566241031101
118312-2NoYes
117302-3NoYes
116303-2No67111111
115293-3No24228523
114294-21.2521127118
113284-32.116324211
112285-20.40600260120
111275-30.6160000260120
110265-40.82630002301100
109266-30.826200024010
108256-40.6263110220100
107257-30.72622112201000
106247-40.7261321211900
105248-30.7359432191900
104238-40.835575317280000
103239-30.7450107415370000
102229-40.7744139612460000
1012210-30.71137151179450000
1002110-40.717311712775400000
2211-20.717311711775400000
992111-30.724251812755300000
2010-50.7262417127552000
982011-40.6331816116342000000
1910-60.63418161063420000
972012-30.64014149523100000
1911-50.64113148523100000
1810-70.6411314952310000
961912-40.545910631210000000
1811-60.5459106312100000
2013-20.5449117412100000
951913-30.44567521200000
1812-50.444674212000000
941813-40.340453101000000
1712-60.340453101000000
931814-30.2332321000000
1713-50.23223110000000
921714-40.2241110000000
911715-30.117110000000
901615-40.11000000000
891616-30.0600000000
881516-40.030000000
871517-30.01000000
861417-40.01000000
851418-3No0000000
841318-40.0000
831319-3No00
821320-2No0
811220-3No0
54-80No
Total:0.3%20.88.55.23.41.91.81.30.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Montreal 4 +0.1
Carolina 1 Ottawa 4 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs Buffalo+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.5
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal vs Philadelphia+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Boston vs NY Rangers+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
124350-087013
117-118100
116303-2221167
115293-377842
114294-28647912
113284-3339013
112285-21408735
111275-31210815190
110265-4011072910150
109266-301006113302201
108256-4000047174280020
107257-30000312060361040
106247-4000192190422170
105248-300010181114532111
104238-400041311243541710
103239-300018933788024030
102229-40046428912031050
1012210-3002431810160380100
1002110-40123108180410161
992111-30012461814002530
982011-40011315136134060
972012-300102112291420120
961912-400001722024602110
951812-500000421324603210
941813-40000227241143300
931713-50000113232253600
921714-4000111233601100
911614-50000011446118100
901615-4000007456284000
891515-5000033453610200
881516-400001231401961000
871416-500001173528134100
861417-400017243123113100
851317-500021224282193000
841318-40141425271982000
831218-50015152527177200
821219-400016162626166100
811220-300027172726155100
801120-40029192724144100
791121-30031020282412310
781021-4013112329211020
771022-301413252819710
76922-400161628281640
75923-3027223126112
74823-4003132731215
73824-301717313211
72724-40210274021
71725-3116174431
70625-43114740
69626-354155
68627-23862
67527-32080
66427-45050
54035-0100
Total:00000110314111120129115322110000000