Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.2 to 45.1%
16 points   7 6-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs
NY Islanders 3 Montreal 4 (so)-0.4
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 -0.3
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)*-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Philadelphia+0.2*-0.1*+0.0*-0.2-0.4-0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Columbus vs Dallas-0.3*-0.2-0.5*+0.3+0.4+0.4
Toronto vs Vegas-0.3*-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.5
St. Louis vs Carolina+0.3*+0.0*+0.0*-0.3-0.3-0.4
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton-0.1*-0.1-0.3*+0.0*-0.0+0.3
NY Rangers vs Montreal+0.3*-0.1*-0.2-0.3*-0.3-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-150InYes100345*
1235010-7In91.7%92812*
120-122In99.2100128*
1194913-5In95.997398*
1184813-6In95.3991191*
1174713-7In91.09712354*
1164714-6In87.39613582*
1154614-7In83.693250921*
1144615-6In78.793251,457*
1134515-7In69.3883902,325*
1124516-6In62.88551003,510*
1114416-7In52.88061415,079*
1104316-8In43.173719107,354*
1094317-7In33.26610222010,562*
1084217-8In24.05712283014,671*
1074218-7In14.84714335020,094*
1064118-8In8.838163881026,729*
1054119-7In4.3281742121034,738*
1044019-8In1.8201745162045,023*
1034020-7100.0%0.61316462140057,478*
1023920-8100.00.2814442760070,864*
1013921-7100.00.0411413291085,434*
1003821-899.90.029363714200102,609*
993822-799.80.016303920400120,517*
983722-899.5No04244025600138,366*
973723-798.7No0217383011100155,888*
963623-896.9No0112343317300173,094*
953624-793.0No01828332361000188,796*
943524-885.6No05222929113000202,308*
933525-774.1No03162333196100212,180*
923425-858.6No01111531261231000219,226*
913426-741.5No017925291982000224,085*
903326-825.9No0044172926145100221,775*
893327-714.1No00221023292210200218,321*
883227-86.5No00115162727176100211,096*
873228-72.7No0102921292411300199,851*
863128-81.0No0001414272918610185,588*
853028-90.3No0000282030251120169,972*
843029-80.1No0000141427311851153,161*
833030-70.0No000028223226101135,733*
822930-80.0No000014153032163117,821*
812830-90.0No000292535235100,804*
802831-8OutNo00151935311084,671*
792731-9OutNo0031332371569,760*
782732-8OutNo001827422256,917*
772733-7OutNo00521433045,100*
762633-8OutNo00216433835,211*
752634-7OutNo0111404827,489*
742534-8OutNo017365620,505*
732535-7OutNo05316415,498*
722435-8OutNo03257211,167*
712436-7OutNo0120798,038*
702336-8OutNo0116845,714*
692236-9OutNo011883,936*
682237-8OutNo010902,669*
672238-7OutNo7931,744*
662138-8OutNo5951,121*
652139-7OutNo496770*
642039-8OutNo298466*
631939-9OutNo0100296*
621940-8OutNo199162*
611941-7OutNo397108*
16-60OutNo100474*
Total:45.1%0.7%228121010988876534,230,956

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayNY IslandersBostonTorontoMontrealPittsburghNew JerseyWashingtonColumbusCarolinaFloridaNY RangersPhiladelphiaOttawaDetroit
150670-04.7%741210146675675452
127539-5NoYes
126529-6NoYes
1255311-3NoYes
1245110-6No25252525
1235010-78.31783388888
1225011-6No1241519124124848
1215012-52.91262163633129669
1204912-65.96115122234166133114
1194913-59.282711133967553577
1184813-62.681614124585665472
1174713-74.8631311166455765372
1164714-64.5731214155554564483
1154614-75.8931214135555693351
1144615-65.1941313135566574442
1134515-74.6931315145555484352
1124516-65.4931414155554573362
1114416-75.01131414154555473352
1104316-84.51131515165544473352
1094317-74.71331616164443463351
1084217-84.41421617164443373241
1074218-74.61521717163333362241
1064118-84.51721818173333362241
1054119-74.31822019173322252131
1044019-84.21922019172222251131
1034020-74.32022120172222241131
1023920-84.02132120172222141131
1013921-74.02142120172221141121
1003821-83.92152019163222141121
993822-73.92171919153332241121
983722-83.72081818144332231121
973723-73.720101717134442231120
963623-83.519111615124442231110
953624-73.419121514114442221110
943524-83.11813131294442221110
3625-63.11812131394442221110
933525-72.71711111084432111010
923425-82.11499863331110000
913426-71.51176642221110000
903326-80.9744421110000000
893327-70.5422211100000000
883227-80.2211110000000000
873228-70.1100000000000000
863128-80.0000000000000000
853129-70.00000000000000
843029-80.000000000000
833030-7No0000000
823031-6No0000
813032-5No0
16-80No
Total:1.7%9.54.67.87.45.81.81.71.60.90.81.40.40.40.80.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders 3 Montreal 4 (so)+0.1
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Vegas+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1
NY Rangers vs Montreal-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Columbus vs Dallas+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
124-150100
1235010-7928
1225011-6964
120-121100
1194913-59613
1184813-69541
1174713-791612
1164714-687813
1154614-78410250
1144615-6791425
1134515-769193900
1124516-66322501000
1114416-75327601301
1104316-8433070181010
1094317-7333390211020
1084217-824331112520300
1074218-715321322940500
1064118-892913330717010
1054119-7424124301110110010
1044019-82181162716301510200
1034020-71138721204019204000
1023920-8086814237123406000
1013921-70448824812481090100
1003821-80227321932212201312000
993822-70115115951818401824000
983722-8004010771222602056000
973723-7002054862291219100100
963623-800102282181041915152300
953624-700111611396132019461000
943524-80000407697222010113100
933525-700020331032016171682000
923425-800010118114922181472000
913426-7000100609421141915731000
903326-8000004041168172116831000
893327-700002020103101922179410000
883227-800001105141120231810410000
873228-70001002015122023191151000
863128-800010015122024201141000
853028-90000001512212420114100
843029-800000002513212519103100
833030-7000000026142325188200
822930-80000002716252516610
812830-90001392027241230
802831-8000141324292081
792731-900027182927143
782732-80013122532226
772733-7001619332910
762633-800313303617
752634-700018254125
742534-8014194234
732535-702144043
722435-80193753
712436-7053163
702336-8032671
692236-9022078
682237-8011782
672238-711486
662138-80991
652139-70792
642039-80694
631939-9199
621940-8298
611941-7595
601740-10298
16-59100
Total:1211231234235656444444444443321