Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances

Lost to Chicago 1-5, playoff odds down 6.9 to 6%
62 points   26 24-10

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Buffalo 1 Chicago 5 -4.6
San Jose 1 Boston 2 (ot)-0.6
Ottawa 2 Winnipeg 3 +0.5
Carolina 0 Toronto 4 -0.3
NY Islanders 6 New Jersey 4 -0.3
Colorado 2 Tampa Bay 3 (ot)*-0.1
Vancouver 2 Philadelphia 3 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs
St. Louis vs Florida+0.3*-0.0*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
106220-0InNo09820191,420
105210-1InNo955302
104200-2InNo9281,789*
103201-1InNo851407,753*
102191-2InNo77221029,766*
101192-1InNo673030093,356*
100182-2100.0%No54396000273,934*
99183-1100.0No4146120100700,836*
98173-299.8No28482103001,660,888*
97163-399.2No1745310610003,560,685*
96164-297.2No9373901230007,129,458*
95154-392.1No42642020710013,140,117*
94155-282.0No2153902615300022,778,608*
93145-366.0No083002825810036,731,230*
92146-246.2No03190243417300055,994,520*
91136-327.0No011001635279100079,908,098*
90137-212.8No0050828351940000108,149,712*
89127-34.8No00203183530112000137,747,043*
88128-21.6No001019273620500077,599,292
117-41.2No000018253723610089,072,278*
87118-30.3No000031534321320092,006,208
129-10.3No000031534321420098,338,153*
86119-20.1No00001725362361095,118,174
108-40.0No00016233625810111,758,013*
85109-30.0No000021332341530102,563,859
1110-10.0No000021332341630109,921,026*
841010-20.0No000162337257195,426,146
99-40.0No0000521372881112,445,798*
83910-30.0No0000212323616292,848,132
1011-10.0No0000212323616299,496,885*
82911-20.0No00016234026578,549,209
810-40.0No00005224027691,012,282*
81811-3OutNo000213363712141,241,063*
80812-2OutNo0016274422112,028,648*
79712-3OutNo000218463483,868,922*
78713-2OutNo00110414859,710,172*
77613-3OutNo0005346139,989,762*
76614-2OutNo002257225,434,665*
75514-3OutNo001178215,145,992*
74515-2OutNo0011898,543,674*
73415-3OutNo007934,478,913*
72416-2OutNo004962,217,031*
71316-3OutNo02981,006,064*
70317-2OutNo0199430,721*
69318-1OutNo00100165,699*
68218-2OutNo010059,289*
67219-1OutNo010018,704*
66119-2OutNo01005,384*
65120-1OutNo01001,346*
62-64OutNo100191,721*
Total:6.0%No00120369131516151282,308,792,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonPittsburghColumbusNY RangersMontrealOttawaTorontoBostonNY IslandersFloridaTampa BayCarolinaPhiladelphiaNew JerseyDetroit
106220-00.3%02347271101100000
105210-10.30194530210111
104200-20.2020363423120100
103201-10.30213330452401000
102191-20.3018302867350100000
101192-10.30162525910570200000
100182-20.3013202112137100200000
99183-10.3110151616179130310000
98173-20.3271011192011150410000
162-40.3371011192011140410000
97163-30.36467202212160510000
174-10.25577212112160510000
152-50.37456212113150510000
96164-20.211344212112160510000
153-40.212334202113150510000
175-00.211344212112160510000
95154-30.218222181911140510000
165-10.217222191911140510000
143-50.219222171811130510000
94155-20.22321115159110410000
144-40.22421114149100410000
166-00.22321116169120410000
133-60.22421113148100410000
93145-30.1252111010670310000
156-10.1252111111680310000
134-50.12421199670210000
123-70.1232118956021000
92146-20.12111167450210000
135-40.12011166340110000
157-00.12311177450210000
124-60.118110553301000
91136-30.0131103322010000
147-10.11511044230100000
125-50.012110231201000
90137-20.0710012110000
126-40.0600011110000
148-00.0910022110000
115-60.050001111000
89127-30.030000100000
138-10.0300011000000
116-50.020000000000
88128-20.010000000000
117-40.010000000000
87118-30.000000000000
86119-20.000000000000
85109-30.000000000000
841010-2No0000000000
831011-1No0000000
82911-2No000
62-81No
Total:0.0%2.30.20.20.10.90.90.50.70.00.20.10.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo 1 Chicago 5 +0.9
San Jose 1 Boston 2 (ot)+0.1
Colorado 2 Tampa Bay 3 (ot)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
St. Louis vs Florida-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
106220-007325002000
105210-1564004
104200-241510080
103201-12659013100
102191-2166101740010
101192-185902110003000
100182-2351021180060000
99183-11401728001200100
98173-202812360020100300
97163-30176390028300601000
96164-20933400318001203000
95154-304125002814002007100
94155-202015201900260153000
93145-30008111900271258100
92146-20034150022234173000
91136-30011900133352891000
90137-200004006227351950000
89127-3000020022163431122000
88128-200000017243524810000
117-4000000016233524810000
87118-3000000211283319610000
86119-2000000041731281441000
108-400000031530301651000
85109-3000000161930271341000
841010-2000029223123102000
99-40000172030251230000
83910-30000021023312292000
82911-2000014132730186100
810-4000003122631207100
81811-30001516293016400
912-10001516293016400
80812-2000172033271020
79712-30000211273521500
78713-2000141735321100
77613-30001827402210
76614-20000318413430
75514-30019364760
74515-200042756120
73415-30021760210
72416-20011059310
71316-300553420
70317-20244540
69318-10135640
68218-20026740
67219-1018811
66119-2011881
65120-17912
64121-04915
63021-18218
62022-01909
Total:0000001001200206810111110109764200