Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Lost to Vancouver 1-3, playoff odds down 0.02 to 99.97%
38 points   18 5-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Vancouver 3 Toronto 1 -0.2
-8.5
Calgary 7 Ottawa 3 +0.0
Montreal 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-0.1
Chicago 2 Tampa Bay 3 (ot)-0.1
-2.8
Carolina 5 Detroit 2 -0.2
Nashville 4 Florida 5 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Chicago vs Tampa Bay+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
+3.7+1.0+1.0-1.7-2.3-2.3
San Jose vs Vegas+1.0+0.4+0.4-0.3-0.5-0.5
Boston vs Washington-0.0-0.1-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Colorado vs Anaheim-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
100310-0In100.0%100025,811
99300-1In99.91000681
98301-0In99.810003,827*
97291-1In99.8100011,848*
96281-2In99.6100038,621*
95282-1In99.399193,840*
94272-2In98.7991228,618*
93273-1In97.7982466,015*
92263-2In96.2964934,557*
91264-1In93.89461,643,861*
90254-2In90.791902,820,531*
89255-1In86.2871304,377,651*
88245-2In80.7821806,595,997*
87246-1In73.7762409,171,510*
86236-2In65.56931012,353,877*
85226-3In56.26139015,530,994*
84227-2In46.452480018,945,508*
83217-3In36.24356021,715,554*
82218-2In26.634651024,150,945*
81208-3In18.126722025,414,220*
80209-2In11.118774025,954,360*
79199-3In6.112808025,164,060*
781910-2In2.978012023,705,665*
771810-3In1.1477190021,267,795*
761811-2In0.4270280018,552,801*
751711-3In0.1160381015,442,962*
741712-2In0.0049483012,492,204*
731612-3In0.0037577009,674,039*
721613-2In0.00256213007,277,910*
711513-3InNo0166321105,244,910*
701514-2100.0%No0958322003,676,373*
691414-3100.0No04494340002,469,334*
681415-2100.0No2375272001,611,934*
671315-399.8No12657124001,007,951*
661316-299.3No01657161010612,434*
651216-397.8No09521918200357,470*
641217-294.9No04431929500202,685*
631117-389.8No23216409100110,056*
621118-281.9No12211481440058,091*
611018-371.5No0147511991029,447*
601019-260.0No0844822152014,178*
59919-347.3No0524122246006,687*
58920-234.6No2131203312103,045*
57820-325.3No1024153521301,372*
56821-217.9No0189353161541*
55822-18.9No0963435133235*
54722-27.8No83224419477*
53723-15.9No63242435934*
52623-2OutNo4343147*
51624-1OutNo1002
38031-0OutNo1316825,625
Total:100.0%22.4%2756142000000000319,488,750

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayCarolinaWinnipegFloridaMontrealEdmontonChicagoCalgaryDallasColumbusVancouverNashvilleOttawaDetroit
100310-019.4%0220302321811200
99300-119.80151252951831300
98301-019.00161282651731210
97291-119.80141272761831210
96281-219.701412627617322100
95282-119.6001312728717322100
94272-219.5001222628717322100
93273-119.5001122528817422100
92263-219.5001122528916422100
91264-119.50110224281016422100
90254-219.4019323281116522100
89255-119.4019422271215522100
88245-219.3018421271414622100
87246-119.2027520261614622100
86236-219.1027619251813732100
85226-319.0026717232012731100
84227-218.8036816222211831100
83217-318.7035915212410831100
82218-218.5045101419269931100
81208-318.4045111418288931100
80209-218.20441113172971031000
198-418.2044111418287931000
79199-318.1044111417296931000
781910-217.9045111618286930000
771810-317.7045101818266820000
761811-217.504792220236720000
751711-317.303882621196620000
741712-217.0031063022157510000
731612-316.7021353523117310000
721613-216.501153382477210000
711513-316.201172412557100000
701514-215.90019143252710000
691414-315.700201452417000000
681415-215.410220452317000000
671315-315.141230432107000000
661316-214.881240401806000000
651216-314.3142251361505000000
641217-213.6223241291103000000
631117-312.53042122270200000
621118-211.336518216401000000
611018-39.337514210301000000
601019-27.6344121710100
59919-35.6274101410000
58920-24.42038121000
57820-34.214361200000
56821-22.0916100
55822-10.440310
54722-21.3333
53723-1No33
38-52No
Total:18.1%0.23.17.08.419.720.721.68.47.42.30.80.40.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver 3 Toronto 1 +0.4
Chicago 2 Tampa Bay 3 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Tampa Bay-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
100310-01000
99300-11000
98301-010000
97291-110000
96281-210000
95282-19901
94272-29901
93273-19802
92263-29604
91264-19406
90254-291190
89255-18611300
88245-28121800
87246-174324000
86236-266431000
85226-356539000
84227-24664700000
83217-3367560000
82218-22786411000
81208-31887112000
80209-2117753401000
79199-3667556020000
781910-2347198040000
771810-3136215101800000
761811-20250201121400000
751711-30135251132301000
741712-20022278533230100
731612-3001125564155020000
721613-2005212544117140000
711513-302141438208390100
701514-20080227298617120000
691414-300401153358254300000
681415-20200730393011622000
671315-3010022417272274400000
661316-20001150519337991100
651216-300090210395141442000
641217-200401437216181132000
631117-3020130115172344100
621118-21002101113354752000
611018-3000130784339105100
601019-200804444281311510
59919-305214015131612510
58920-221031039192010410
57820-31024151223201131
56821-2018017182521720
55822-10911724261480
54722-2816132331134
53723-1632412321293
52623-214294314
51624-15050
38031-0043560
Total:224497418210100000000000000000000