Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Beat Chicago 3-2 (ot), playoff odds up 0.05 to 99.96%

33 points 16 4-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Chicago 2 Tampa Bay 3 (ot)	+0.0		+0.2		+4.8
Nashville 4 Florida 5			-0.0		-0.1
Carolina 5 Detroit 2			-0.0		-0.2
Vancouver 3 Toronto 1			+0.1		+5.0
Montreal 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)					-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Chicago vs Tampa Bay			-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2		-8.1-2.0-2.0+3.9+4.9+5.0
San Jose vs Vegas					+1.8+0.7+0.7-0.7-0.9-0.9
Colorado vs Anaheim					-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Boston vs Washington					-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Minnesota					+0.1+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

101	-103						In		100.0	%	100														34,386	*
100		33	1		-	1	In		100.0		100	0													20,690	*
99		32	1		-	2	In		100.0		100	0													64,050	*
98		32	2		-	1	In		100.0		100	0													146,503	*
97		31	2		-	2	In		99.9		100	0	0												344,685	*
96		31	3		-	1	In		99.9		100	0	0												668,286	*
95		30	3		-	2	In		99.9		100	0	0												1,288,022	*
94		30	4		-	1	In		99.8		100	0	0												2,165,810	*
93		29	4		-	2	In		99.6		100	0	0												3,585,571	*
92		29	5		-	1	In		99.3		100	0	0												5,350,243	*
91		28	5		-	2	In		98.7		99	1	0												7,814,610	*
90		28	6		-	1	In		97.7		98	2	0												10,475,275	*
89		27	6		-	2	In		96.1		97	3	0												13,729,393	*
88		26	6		-	3	In		93.5		95	4	0	0											16,735,030	*
87		26	7		-	2	In		89.7		93	7	1	0											19,917,824	*
86		25	7		-	3	In		84.3		89	10	1	0											22,267,596	*
85		25	8		-	2	In		77.1		83	14	2	0											24,272,486	*
84		24	8		-	3	In		68.0		77	19	4	0											25,022,706	*
83		24	9		-	2	In		57.3		68	25	7	0											25,152,963	*
82		23	9		-	3	In		45.5		58	31	11	0											24,039,786	*
81		23	10		-	2	In		33.5		48	36	16	0	0										22,390,499	*
80		22	10		-	3	In		22.4		37	40	23	1	0										19,910,884	*
79		22	11		-	2	In		13.3		26	42	31	1	0										17,266,861	*
78		21	11		-	3	In		6.9		17	41	39	3	0										14,327,563	*
77		21	12		-	2	In		3.0		10	37	47	6	0										11,595,849	*
76		20	12		-	3	In		1.0		5	31	53	10	0										9,001,496	*
75		20	13		-	2	In		0.3		2	24	57	17	0										6,819,251	*
74		19	13		-	3	100.0	%	0.1		1	16	57	26	1	0	0								4,957,495	*
73		19	14		-	2	100.0		0.0		0	10	52	36	2	0	0								3,523,068	*
72		18	14		-	3	100.0		0.0		0	6	44	46	4	0	0								2,405,611	*
71		18	15		-	2	99.9		0.0		0	3	34	55	9	0	0								1,601,755	*
70		17	15		-	3	99.8		No		0	1	24	59	16	0	0								1,028,735	*
69		17	16		-	2	99.2		No		0	0	15	59	25	0	1	0							642,998	*
68		16	16		-	3	97.8		No			0	8	54	35	1	2	0							387,370	*
67		16	17		-	2	95.0		No			0	4	44	44	3	5	0							228,989	*
66		15	17		-	3	89.6		No			0	2	33	48	6	10	0							129,248	*
65		15	18		-	2	81.7		No				1	23	48	11	18	1							71,851	*
64		14	18		-	3	71.2		No				0	14	40	17	27	2	0						38,357	*
63		14	19		-	2	57.9		No				0	7	30	21	37	5	0						20,146	*
62		13	19		-	3	44.0		No				0	4	19	21	45	10	1						10,067	*
61		13	20		-	2	32.5		No					2	10	21	48	18	1	0					4,973	*
60		12	20		-	3	19.3		No					1	4	15	48	28	4	0					2,274	*
59		12	21		-	2	12.4		No					0	2	10	37	41	10	0	0				1,065	*
58		11	21		-	3	7.1		No					0	2	5	33	43	16	2	0				496	*
57		11	22		-	2	2.8		No							3	13	54	27	3	1				181	*
56		10	22		-	3	1.4		No							1	12	41	31	15					74	*
55		9	22		-	4	Out		No								7	17	48	24	3				29	*
54		9	23		-	3	Out		No									22	28	33	17				18	*
53		10	25		-	0	Out		No										50	33	17				6	*
51		8	25		-	2	Out		No											100					1
33		0	35		-	0	Out		No													4	96		25,625

Total:							100.0	%	54.4	%	62	21	14	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		319,488,750

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Toronto	Carolina	Winnipeg	Florida	Montreal	Edmonton	Chicago	Calgary	Dallas	Columbus	Vancouver	Nashville	Ottawa	Detroit

103		35	0		-	0	26.6	%	0	2	2	10	8	14	36	8	12	5	2	2	0	0
102		34	0		-	1	29.5		0	2	3	6	11	18	29	10	10	5	2	2
101		34	1		-	0	27.1		0	1	3	7	12	18	28	11	10	5	2	1	0
100		33	1		-	1	27.3		0	1	3	7	12	20	26	12	11	4	2	2	0	0
99		32	1		-	2	27.3		0	1	3	7	13	20	26	12	10	4	2	1	0	0
98		32	2		-	1	27.4		0	1	3	6	13	21	25	12	10	4	2	1	0	0
97		31	2		-	2	27.5		0	1	3	6	14	22	24	12	10	4	2	1	0	0
96		31	3		-	1	27.5		0	1	4	6	14	23	23	13	9	4	2	1	0	0
95		30	3		-	2	27.5		0	1	4	6	15	23	22	13	9	4	2	1	0	0
94		30	4		-	1	27.5		0	1	4	6	15	24	21	13	9	4	2	1	0	0
93		29	4		-	2	27.5		0	1	4	5	15	24	21	14	9	4	2	1	0	0
92		29	5		-	1	27.5		0	1	4	5	16	25	20	14	9	4	2	1	0	0
91		28	5		-	2	27.5		0	1	4	5	16	25	19	14	8	4	2	1	0	0
90		28	6		-	1	27.5		0	1	4	5	16	26	19	14	8	4	2	1	0	0
89		27	6		-	2	27.5		0	1	4	5	17	26	18	14	8	3	2	1	0	0
88		26	6		-	3	27.5		0	1	4	5	17	26	18	14	8	3	2	1	0	0
87		26	7		-	2	27.4		0	1	4	5	17	26	18	14	8	3	2	1	0	0
86		25	7		-	3	27.3		0	2	4	6	16	26	18	14	8	3	2	1	0	0
85		25	8		-	2	27.2		0	2	4	7	16	25	19	13	8	3	2	1	0	0
84		24	8		-	3	27.1		0	2	4	9	15	24	20	13	8	3	2	1	0	0
83		24	9		-	2	26.9		0	3	4	11	14	22	21	12	8	3	2	1	0	0
		23	8		-	4	26.8		0	3	4	11	14	22	21	11	8	3	2	1	0	0
82		23	9		-	3	26.6		0	4	4	14	13	20	22	10	8	3	1	1	0	0
81		23	10		-	2	26.3		0	6	3	17	11	17	23	9	9	3	1	1	0	0
80		22	10		-	3	25.9		0	8	3	21	9	14	24	7	9	3	1	1	0	0
79		22	11		-	2	25.6		0	11	2	26	7	11	25	5	9	3	1	1	0	0
78		21	11		-	3	25.2		0	14	2	30	5	8	25	4	8	3	0	0	0	0
77		21	12		-	2	24.8		0	17	1	35	4	6	24	2	8	2	0	0	0	0
76		20	12		-	3	24.4		0	20	1	38	2	4	23	1	7	2	0	0	0	0
75		20	13		-	2	24.0		0	23	1	41	2	2	22	1	6	2	0	0	0	0
74		19	13		-	3	23.6		0	25	0	43	1	1	21	0	6	2	0	0	0	0
73		19	14		-	2	23.3		0	27	0	44	0	1	20	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
72		18	14		-	3	22.9		1	28	0	44	0	0	19	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
71		18	15		-	2	22.6		2	29	1	44	0	0	18	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
70		17	15		-	3	22.3		4	30	1	43	0	0	16	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
69		17	16		-	2	21.9		6	31	2	41	0	0	15	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
68		16	16		-	3	21.4		9	32	2	38	1	0	13	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
67		16	17		-	2	20.7		12	32	3	34	1	0	10	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
66		15	17		-	3	19.0		15	31	4	29	1	0	8	0	2	0	0	0		0
65		15	18		-	2	17.4		17	28	4	24	1	0	5	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
64		14	18		-	3	15.1		18	24	4	19	1	0	4	0	1	0	0	0		0
63		14	19		-	2	11.9		18	19	3	14	0	0	2	0	0	0		0		0
62		13	19		-	3	9.3		16	14	3	9	0	0	1		0	0	0	0		0
61		13	20		-	2	7.1		13	10	2	6	0	0	1		0	0		0		0
60		12	20		-	3	4.6		7	7	1	3	0		1		0	0		0		0
59		12	21		-	2	2.5		5	4	0	2	0		0		0	0				0
58		11	21		-	3	2.0		3	2		2			0							0
57		11	22		-	2	No		2			1
56		10	22		-	3	No					1
33	-55						No

Total:							26.4	%	0.2	6.4	3.3	15.3	12.0	18.9	20.8	9.9	8.0	3.0	1.4	0.7	0.0	0.0

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago 2 Tampa Bay 3 (ot)	-0.2
Vancouver 3 Toronto 1	-0.1
Nashville 4 Florida 5	+0.0
Carolina 5 Detroit 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs Tampa Bay	+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

102	-103						100
101		34	1		-	0	100	0
100		33	1		-	1	100	0	0
99		32	1		-	2	100	0	0
98		32	2		-	1	100	0	0
97		31	2		-	2	100	0	0		0
96		31	3		-	1	100	0	0		0
95		30	3		-	2	100	0	0		0
94		30	4		-	1	100	0	0		0
93		29	4		-	2	100	0	0		0
92		29	5		-	1	99	0	0		0
91		28	5		-	2	99	0	1		0
90		28	6		-	1	98	1	2	0	0
89		27	6		-	2	96	1	3	0	0
88		26	6		-	3	93	2	4	0	0				0
87		26	7		-	2	90	3	7	0	1		0		0
86		25	7		-	3	84	4	10	0	1	0	0		0
85		25	8		-	2	77	6	14	0	2	0	0		0
84		24	8		-	3	68	9	19	0	4	0	0		0
83		24	9		-	2	57	11	25	0	7	0	0		0
82		23	9		-	3	45	13	31	0	11	0	0		0
81		23	10		-	2	33	14	36	1	16	0	0		0				0
80		22	10		-	3	22	14	39	1	22	0	0		1	0			0
79		22	11		-	2	13	13	39	3	29	1	1	0	1	0	0		0
78		21	11		-	3	7	10	36	5	36	2	2	0	3	0	0		0
77		21	12		-	2	3	7	30	7	40	3	4	0	6	0	0		0
76		20	12		-	3	1	4	22	9	39	7	7	0	10	0	0		0
75		20	13		-	2	0	2	14	10	34	11	12	0	17	0	0		0	0
74		19	13		-	3	0	1	7	9	25	14	16	1	25	1	0	0	1	0	0		0
73		19	14		-	2	0	0	3	7	15	16	19	2	33	2	1	0	2	0	0		0
72		18	14		-	3	0	0	1	4	7	14	18	4	38	6	2	0	4	0	0		0
71		18	15		-	2	0	0	0	2	2	10	14	7	37	12	5	0	9	0	0		0
70		17	15		-	3		0	0	1	1	6	9	9	29	20	9	1	15	1	0		0	0
69		17	16		-	2		0	0	0	0	3	4	8	18	26	13	2	22	2	0	0	1	0
68		16	16		-	3			0	0	0	1	1	6	8	26	14	5	28	7	1	0	2	0	0
67		16	17		-	2				0	0	0	0	3	3	20	12	9	28	16	3	0	5	0	0	0
66		15	17		-	3				0		0	0	2	1	12	8	13	22	27	6	1	9	1	0
65		15	18		-	2						0	0	1	0	6	4	13	13	35	9	2	14	4	0	0
64		14	18		-	3						0	0	0	0	2	1	10	5	35	10	6	18	9	2	0	0
63		14	19		-	2								0		1	0	6	1	28	9	12	18	16	6	1	0
62		13	19		-	3								0		0	0	4	0	18	6	15	15	23	13	5	1	0
61		13	20		-	2										0	0	2	0	10	3	18	8	22	23	11	3	1	0
60		12	20		-	3												1	0	4	1	13	4	17	25	22	9	3	0	0
59		12	21		-	2												0		2	0	10	2	7	20	30	20	7	2	0
58		11	21		-	3												0		2		5		3	17	25	28	11	7	1
57		11	22		-	2																3	1	1	5	15	28	26	18	5
56		10	22		-	3																1			1	19	23	26	19	7	4
55		9	22		-	4																				3	3	28	34	28			3
54		10	24		-	1																					6	11	39	22	11	6	6
53		10	25		-	0																							33	17	33	17
51		8	25		-	2																										100
33		0	35		-	0																													0	5	95

Total:							54	7	19	1	12	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0