How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Chicago 2 Tampa Bay 3 (ot)+0.0
+0.2
+4.8
Nashville 4 Florida 5 -0.0
-0.1
Carolina 5 Detroit 2 -0.0
-0.2
Vancouver 3 Toronto 1 +0.1
+5.0
Montreal 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Chicago vs Tampa Bay-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
-8.1-2.0-2.0+3.9+4.9+5.0
San Jose vs Vegas+1.8+0.7+0.7-0.7-0.9-0.9
Colorado vs Anaheim-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Boston vs Washington-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Minnesota+0.1+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
101-103In100.0%10034,386*
100331-1In100.0100020,690*
99321-2In100.0100064,050*
98322-1In100.01000146,503*
97312-2In99.910000344,685*
96313-1In99.910000668,286*
95303-2In99.9100001,288,022*
94304-1In99.8100002,165,810*
93294-2In99.6100003,585,571*
92295-1In99.3100005,350,243*
91285-2In98.799107,814,610*
90286-1In97.7982010,475,275*
89276-2In96.1973013,729,393*
88266-3In93.59540016,735,030*
87267-2In89.79371019,917,824*
86257-3In84.389101022,267,596*
85258-2In77.183142024,272,486*
84248-3In68.077194025,022,706*
83249-2In57.368257025,152,963*
82239-3In45.5583111024,039,786*
812310-2In33.54836160022,390,499*
802210-3In22.43740231019,910,884*
792211-2In13.32642311017,266,861*
782111-3In6.91741393014,327,563*
772112-2In3.01037476011,595,849*
762012-3In1.0531531009,001,496*
752013-2In0.3224571706,819,251*
741913-3100.0%0.111657261004,957,495*
731914-2100.00.001052362003,523,068*
721814-3100.00.00644464002,405,611*
711815-299.90.00334559001,601,755*
701715-399.8No01245916001,028,735*
691716-299.2No00155925010642,998*
681616-397.8No085435120387,370*
671617-295.0No044444350228,989*
661517-389.6No0233486100129,248*
651518-281.7No123481118171,851*
641418-371.2No0144017272038,357*
631419-257.9No073021375020,146*
621319-344.0No0419214510110,067*
611320-232.5No210214818104,973*
601220-319.3No14154828402,274*
591221-212.4No0210374110001,065*
581121-37.1No02533431620496*
571122-22.8No313542731181*
561022-31.4No11241311574*
55922-4OutNo7174824329*
54923-3OutNo2228331718*
531025-0OutNo5033176*
51825-2OutNo1001
33035-0OutNo49625,625
Total:100.0%54.4%6221143000000000319,488,750

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTorontoCarolinaWinnipegFloridaMontrealEdmontonChicagoCalgaryDallasColumbusVancouverNashvilleOttawaDetroit
103350-026.6%022108143681252200
102340-129.502361118291010522
101341-027.1013712182811105210
100331-127.30137122026121142200
99321-227.30137132026121042100
98322-127.40136132125121042100
97312-227.50136142224121042100
96313-127.5014614232313942100
95303-227.5014615232213942100
94304-127.5014615242113942100
93294-227.5014515242114942100
92295-127.5014516252014942100
91285-227.5014516251914842100
90286-127.5014516261914842100
89276-227.5014517261814832100
88266-327.5014517261814832100
87267-227.4014517261814832100
86257-327.3024616261814832100
85258-227.2024716251913832100
84248-327.1024915242013832100
83249-226.90341114222112832100
238-426.80341114222111832100
82239-326.60441413202210831100
812310-226.3063171117239931100
802210-325.908321914247931100
792211-225.6011226711255931100
782111-325.201423058254830000
772112-224.801713546242820000
762012-324.402013824231720000
752013-224.002314122221620000
741913-323.602504311210620000
731914-223.302704401200510000
721814-322.912804400190510000
711815-222.622914400180510000
701715-322.343014300160410000
691716-221.963124100150410000
681616-321.493223810130310000
671617-220.7123233410100210000
661517-319.01531429108020000
651518-217.417284241050100000
641418-315.11824419104010000
631419-211.9181931400200000
621319-39.316143900100000
611320-27.11310260010000
601220-34.67713010000
591221-22.5540200000
581121-32.032200
571122-2No21
561022-3No1
33-55No
Total:26.4%0.26.43.315.312.018.920.89.98.03.01.40.70.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago 2 Tampa Bay 3 (ot)-0.2
Vancouver 3 Toronto 1 -0.1
Nashville 4 Florida 5 +0.0
Carolina 5 Detroit 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Tampa Bay+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
102-103100
101341-01000
100331-110000
99321-210000
98322-110000
97312-2100000
96313-1100000
95303-2100000
94304-1100000
93294-2100000
92295-199000
91285-299010
90286-1981200
89276-2961300
88266-39324000
87267-290370100
86257-38441001000
85258-27761402000
84248-36891904000
83249-257112507000
82239-3451331011000
812310-23314361160000
802210-322143912200100
792211-21313393291101000
782111-3710365362203000
772112-237307403406000
762012-3142293977010000
752013-20214103411120170000
741913-301792514161251001000
731914-200371516192332102000
721814-30014714184386204000
711815-200022101473712509000
701715-30011699292091151000
691716-2000034818261322220010
681616-300011682614528710200
671617-2000033201292816305000
661517-30002112813222761910
651518-20010641313359214400
641418-300002110535106189200
631419-201061289121816610
621319-30004018615152313510
611320-20020103188222311310
601220-310411341725229300
591221-20201027203020720
581121-302531725281171
571122-23115152826185
561022-3111923261974
55922-4332834283
541024-161139221166
531025-033173317
51825-2100
33035-00595
Total:547191121102000000000000000000000