Dallas Stars Playoff Chances

Lost to Columbus 2-3, playoff odds down 8.1 to 23.2%

16 points 6 8-4

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
Dallas 2 Columbus 3	-6.6		-0.1
Nashville 4 Florida 5	-0.6
Carolina 5 Detroit 2	-0.2
Chicago 2 Tampa Bay 3 (ot)	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
Chicago vs Tampa Bay	-2.7-2.8-2.3+0.0+0.0+2.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

92		38	0		-	0	In		99.6	%	100	0													20,881
88		35	1		-	2	In		Yes		100														4	*
87		35	2		-	1	In		66.7		67	17	17												6	*
86		34	2		-	2	In		66.7		74	22	4												27	*
85		33	2		-	3	In		77.2		82	10	8												79	*
84		33	3		-	2	In		47.3		57	26	17												207	*
83		32	3		-	3	In		49.6		59	20	21												556	*
82		32	4		-	2	In		29.9		39	27	33	1											1,541	*
81		31	4		-	3	In		21.6		32	25	41	2											3,797	*
80		31	5		-	2	In		11.5		20	25	51	4											8,786	*
79		30	5		-	3	In		5.2		11	21	60	7	0										19,306	*
78		29	5		-	4	In		2.2		6	17	63	13	0										40,263	*
77		29	6		-	3	In		0.7		3	12	63	21	1										78,708	*
76		28	6		-	4	In		0.2		1	8	59	30	2										147,997	*
75		28	7		-	3	100.0	%	0.0		0	4	51	41	4		0								265,753	*
74		27	7		-	4	100.0		0.0		0	2	41	50	7		0								457,050	*
73		27	8		-	3	99.9		0.0		0	1	30	56	13	0	0								752,146	*
72		26	8		-	4	99.7		No		0	0	21	58	21	0	0								1,193,908	*
71		26	9		-	3	99.1		No		0	0	13	55	31	0	1								1,812,980	*
70		25	9		-	4	97.6		No			0	7	49	41	0	2	0							2,659,350	*
69		25	10		-	3	94.8		No			0	4	40	51	1	5	0							3,753,473	*
68		24	10		-	4	90.0		No			0	2	30	57	2	10	0							5,116,044	*
67		24	11		-	3	83.2		No			0	1	20	57	5	17	0	0						6,732,467	*
66		23	11		-	4	74.2		No			0	0	13	53	9	26	0	0						8,556,898	*
65		23	12		-	3	63.6		No				0	7	44	13	36	1	0						10,511,341	*
64		22	12		-	4	52.1		No				0	4	32	16	46	2	0	0					12,503,992	*
63		22	13		-	3	40.6		No				0	2	21	18	55	5	0	0					14,389,016	*
62		21	13		-	4	29.9		No				0	1	12	17	60	9	0	0	0				16,032,533	*
61		21	14		-	3	20.8		No				0	0	6	14	61	17	1	0	0				17,301,832	*
60		20	14		-	4	13.5		No					0	3	11	57	26	3	0	0				18,097,403	*
59		20	15		-	3	8.1		No					0	1	7	49	36	7	0	0				18,350,502	*
58		19	15		-	4	4.5		No					0	0	4	38	43	14	1	0	0			18,044,539	*
57		19	16		-	3	2.2		No					0	0	2	26	46	23	3	0	0			17,198,922	*
56		18	16		-	4	1.0		No					0	0	1	17	43	33	6	0	0			15,904,995	*
55		18	17		-	3	0.4		No					0	0	0	9	36	41	12	1	0			14,266,222	*
54		17	17		-	4	0.1		No						0	0	5	27	45	20	3	0	0		12,422,511	*
53		17	18		-	3	0.0		No						0	0	2	18	44	30	6	0	0		10,492,629	*
52		16	18		-	4	0.0		No							0	1	10	39	38	12	0	0		8,596,237	*
51		16	19		-	3	0.0		No							0	0	5	30	44	20	1	0		6,828,025	*
50		15	19		-	4	0.0		No							0	0	2	21	45	30	2	0		5,264,994	*
49		15	20		-	3	0.0		No							0	0	1	13	41	40	5	0		3,936,170	*
48		14	20		-	4	Out		No								0	0	7	33	49	10	1		2,854,163	*
47		14	21		-	3	Out		No								0	0	3	24	53	18	2		2,009,720	*
46		13	21		-	4	Out		No								0	0	1	16	53	27	4		1,367,922	*
45		13	22		-	3	Out		No									0	0	9	47	36	7		902,884	*
44		12	22		-	4	Out		No									0	0	4	39	44	13		578,536	*
43		12	23		-	3	Out		No									0	0	2	29	48	21		359,731	*
42		11	23		-	4	Out		No										0	1	20	49	30		215,080	*
41		11	24		-	3	Out		No											0	13	46	41		124,546	*
40		10	24		-	4	Out		No										0	0	7	40	52		70,138	*
39		10	25		-	3	Out		No											0	4	33	63		38,232	*
38		9	25		-	4	Out		No												2	26	72		19,897	*
37		9	26		-	3	Out		No												1	19	80		9,947	*
36		8	26		-	4	Out		No												0	13	86		4,848	*
35		8	27		-	3	Out		No												0	8	91		2,281	*
34		7	27		-	4	Out		No													4	96		979	*
33		7	28		-	3	Out		No													2	98		458	*
32		7	29		-	2	Out		No													2	98		175	*
16	-31						Out		No														100		20,995	*

Total:							23.2	%	0.0	%	0	0	1	4	12	7	30	20	14	8	4	1	0		260,344,622

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Toronto	Tampa Bay	Carolina	Winnipeg	Florida	Montreal	Edmonton	Chicago	Calgary	Columbus	Vancouver	Nashville	Ottawa	Detroit

92		38	0		-	0	1.9	%	0	1	5	5	16	18	29	7	15	1	2	0	0
88		35	1		-	2	No							25	50		25
87		35	2		-	1	16.7				17		33	33	17
86		34	2		-	2	No		4	4	4	4	15	7	26	11	22		4
85		33	2		-	3	5.1				5	10	10	18	33	8	14		1		1
84		33	3		-	2	1.4			1	22	2	22	14	18	3	14	1	0
83		32	3		-	3	3.1		0	2	20	5	17	14	21	8	12	0	2
82		32	4		-	2	1.9		0	4	31	3	21	9	15	8	7	0	1	0
81		31	4		-	3	1.3		0	6	33	2	25	8	13	7	6	0	1	0
80		31	5		-	2	1.4		0	8	41	1	25	5	8	7	4	0	1	0	0
79		30	5		-	3	1.5		0	10	45	1	26	3	5	6	2	0	0	0	0
78		29	5		-	4	1.3		0	12	49	1	26	2	3	6	1	0	0	0	0
77		29	6		-	3	1.2		0	14	51	0	26	1	1	6	1	0	0	0	0
76		28	6		-	4	1.2		1	15	52	0	25	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
75		28	7		-	3	1.1		2	16	52	0	25	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
74		27	7		-	4	1.1		3	16	52	1	23	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
73		27	8		-	3	1.1		5	17	50	1	22	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
72		26	8		-	4	1.0		9	18	47	2	20	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
71		26	9		-	3	1.0		14	19	42	3	17	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
70		25	9		-	4	1.0		19	20	37	4	14	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
69		25	10		-	3	0.9		24	20	31	5	11	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
68		24	10		-	4	0.9		28	21	24	6	8	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
67		24	11		-	3	0.8		29	21	20	6	6	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		23	10		-	5	0.8		31	20	16	6	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
66		23	11		-	4	0.7		29	21	13	6	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		24	12		-	2	0.8		29	22	15	6	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		22	10		-	6	0.7		29	19	11	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
65		23	12		-	3	0.6		26	20	9	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		22	11		-	5	0.6		26	20	9	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
64		22	12		-	4	0.5		21	19	6	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		23	13		-	2	0.5		22	20	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		21	11		-	6	0.4		19	17	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
63		22	13		-	3	0.4		16	18	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		21	12		-	5	0.4		15	16	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
62		21	13		-	4	0.3		10	15	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		22	14		-	2	0.3		10	14	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
61		21	14		-	3	0.2		6	11	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
60		20	14		-	4	0.1		3	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
59		20	15		-	3	0.1		2	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
58		19	15		-	4	0.0		1	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
57		19	16		-	3	0.0		0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
56		18	16		-	4	0.0		0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
55		18	17		-	3	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
54		17	17		-	4	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0		0				0
53		17	18		-	3	0.0		0	0	0	0	0
52		17	19		-	2	0.0		0	0	0	0	0
51		16	19		-	3	0.0		0	0	0		0
50		15	19		-	4	No			0	0		0
49		16	21		-	1	No			0	0		0
16	-48						No

Total:							0.2	%	7.4	8.0	4.4	1.4	1.5	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dallas 2 Columbus 3	+1.0
Nashville 4 Florida 5	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs Tampa Bay	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

92		38	0		-	0	100	0	0
88		35	1		-	2	100
87		35	2		-	1	67		17		17
86		34	2		-	2	67	7	22		4
85		33	2		-	3	77	5	10		8
84		33	3		-	2	47	10	26		17
83		32	3		-	3	50	10	19	0	21
82		32	4		-	2	30	10	27	0	33	0	0		1
81		31	4		-	3	22	10	25	0	41	0	0		2
80		31	5		-	2	12	9	24	1	50	1	0		4
79		30	5		-	3	5	6	20	2	56	2	2		7	0			0
78		29	5		-	4	2	4	15	2	57	3	4		13	0	0		0
77		29	6		-	3	1	2	10	3	51	5	7	0	21	0	0		1
76		28	6		-	4	0	1	5	2	41	8	10	0	30	0	0		2
75		28	7		-	3	0	0	2	2	28	11	12	0	40	1	0		4	0			0
74		27	7		-	4	0	0	1	1	16	11	13	1	47	2	1	0	7	0			0
73		27	8		-	3	0	0	0	1	7	10	12	2	49	5	2	0	13	0	0		0
72		26	8		-	4		0	0	0	2	7	9	3	45	9	4	0	21	0	0		0	0
71		26	9		-	3		0	0	0	1	4	5	3	34	15	6	0	30	1	0		1	0
70		25	9		-	4			0	0	0	2	2	3	21	19	9	1	39	2	0	0	2	0
69		25	10		-	3			0	0	0	1	1	2	10	18	9	2	44	7	1	0	5	0	0
68		24	10		-	4				0	0	0	0	1	3	14	8	4	42	15	2	0	10	0	0	0
67		24	11		-	3				0	0	0	0	1	1	9	5	5	33	25	5	0	16	1	0	0
66		23	11		-	4				0		0	0	0	0	4	3	6	20	33	7	1	23	3	0	0	0
65		23	12		-	3						0	0	0	0	2	1	4	9	34	9	4	27	8	1	0	0	0
64		22	12		-	4						0	0	0	0	1	0	3	3	29	9	7	28	16	4	0	0	0
63		22	13		-	3								0	0	0	0	1	1	20	7	11	24	24	10	2	0	0	0
62		21	13		-	4								0		0	0	1	0	12	4	13	16	28	19	6	1	0	0	0
61		21	14		-	3								0		0	0	0	0	6	2	13	9	25	27	14	4	1	0	0	0
60		20	14		-	4										0	0	0	0	3	1	10	4	17	29	24	11	3	0	0	0	0
59		20	15		-	3										0		0	0	1	0	7	1	9	23	30	20	8	2	0	0	0
58		19	15		-	4												0		0	0	4	0	3	14	27	28	16	5	1	0	0	0
57		19	16		-	3												0		0	0	2	0	1	6	19	30	26	12	3	0	0	0	0
56		18	16		-	4												0		0	0	1	0	0	2	10	23	30	22	9	2	0	0	0
55		18	17		-	3												0		0	0	0	0	0	1	4	14	27	29	18	6	1	0	0	0
54		17	17		-	4														0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	19	30	26	13	4	1	0	0
53		17	18		-	3														0		0	0	0	0	0	2	10	23	30	22	9	2	0	0	0
52		16	18		-	4																0		0	0	0	1	4	14	27	29	18	6	1	0	0	0
51		16	19		-	3																0			0	0	0	1	7	19	30	26	12	3	0	0	0
50		15	19		-	4																0				0	0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1	0	0
49		15	20		-	3																0					0	0	1	5	16	30	30	15	3	0	0
48		14	20		-	4																					0	0	0	2	9	23	33	24	8	1	0
47		14	21		-	3																					0	0	0	0	4	14	30	32	16	3	0
46		13	21		-	4																						0	0	0	1	7	23	35	25	8	1
45		13	22		-	3																							0	0	0	3	14	32	33	15	2
44		12	22		-	4																								0	0	1	8	25	37	24	6
43		12	23		-	3																								0	0	0	3	16	36	33	11
42		11	23		-	4																									0	0	1	9	30	40	19
41		11	24		-	3																										0	0	5	22	43	30
40		10	24		-	4																										0	0	2	15	42	41
39		10	25		-	3																											0	1	8	37	54
38		9	25		-	4																											0	0	5	30	65
37		9	26		-	3																												0	2	23	75
36		8	26		-	4																													1	17	82
35		8	27		-	3																													0	10	89
34		7	27		-	4																													0	6	94
33		7	28		-	3																														3	97
32		7	29		-	2																														4	96
16	-31																																				100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	4	7	2	5	7	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0