Vegas Golden Knights Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.0008 to 99.1%
29 points   14 4-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Vancouver 3 Toronto 1 +1.7
Chicago 2 Tampa Bay 3 (ot)-1.0
Montreal 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-0.1
Carolina 5 Detroit 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
San Jose vs Vegas-0.6-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
-3.7-1.4-1.4+1.3+1.8+1.9
Los Angeles vs St. Louis+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0
Colorado vs Anaheim-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Minnesota+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Tampa Bay+1.9+0.5+0.5-0.9-1.1-1.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vegas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
99-103In100.0%10021,877*
98342-1In99.910002,197*
97332-2In99.810006,560*
96333-1In99.6100016,452*
95323-2In99.3100038,769*
94324-1In98.6100082,446*
93314-2In97.61000168,754*
92304-3In95.91000318,101*
91305-2In93.410000573,264*
90295-3In89.810000969,091*
89296-2In84.8100001,567,442*
88286-3In78.4100002,400,557*
87287-2In70.6100003,540,372*
86277-3In61.4100004,964,514*
85278-2In51.399106,708,736*
84268-3In40.7981008,667,789*
83269-2In30.59720010,822,698*
82259-3In21.29541012,952,207*
812510-2In13.59272015,001,970*
802410-3In7.887103016,716,162*
792411-2In3.979155018,042,336*
782311-3In1.7702190018,768,291*
772211-4In0.65828130018,937,502*
762212-3In0.24534201018,452,029*
752112-4In0.03239272017,437,591*
742113-3100.0%0.0204036400015,934,802*
732013-4100.00.0113844700014,144,029*
722014-3100.00.0531501300012,143,477*
711914-4100.0No223522210010,121,880*
701915-399.9No014493340008,191,155*
691815-499.7No07414381006,427,881*
681816-398.9No0329491431004,891,206*
671716-496.6No0118492183003,617,375*
661717-391.7No00942231781002,590,440*
651617-482.9No04312028143001,806,888*
641618-369.9No011913362181001,219,778*
631518-454.1No00107372517400801,287*
621519-337.9No0533123271010509,914*
611419-423.7No02121183320400315,313*
601420-313.3No010131133311110188,949*
591320-46.6No0006526382130109,956*
581321-33.1No0003217383191061,910*
571221-41.3No01193139172033,804*
561222-30.5No010421422660018,064*
551122-40.2No00212373612109,248*
541123-30.0No006284320304,621*
531124-2OutNo03184231602,208*
521024-3OutNo11036411111,035*
51924-4OutNo032845212464*
50925-3OutNo051840297202*
49825-4OutNo1174132887*
48826-3OutNo235372749*
47827-2OutNo1471147*
46828-1OutNo50502*
45728-2OutNo1001
44729-1OutNo1002*
29037-0OutNo010020,881
Total:99.1%10.9%53191871110000000260,344,622

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Vegas finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNY IslandersColoradoBostonMinnesotaPhiladelphiaWashingtonSt. LouisLos AngelesPittsburghNY RangersArizonaNew JerseySan JoseAnaheimBuffalo
103370-015.4%01001800262700150210
102360-1No1717331788
101350-217.011172263292
100351-111.68116132725111712
99341-217.11111151324252212021
98342-114.411111723222622110200
97332-215.211011622242522121300
96333-115.611011622242422111200
95323-215.511011622242432111200
94324-115.821021623232432111200
93314-215.721021523232333111200
92304-315.521021533232333101200
91305-215.521021534232333101200
90295-315.521021434222243101200
89296-215.621021434222243101200
88286-315.521021434222244101200
87287-215.43102144521214491200
86277-315.43103134521215491200
85278-215.3393134521205491200
84268-315.3393134520205491200
83269-215.2393135620195581200
82259-315.1493125619196581200
812510-215.0494125719186581200
802410-314.9494126718186571200
792411-214.84104136717176571200
782311-314.65104136817166561200
772211-414.45115146816156561100
762212-314.25135166815146551100
752112-414.05155186715146441100
742113-313.84174205715145441100
732013-413.54194235615144330100
722014-313.33223254416143230100
711914-413.02242273317142230100
701915-312.72262282218141130100
691815-412.52272292218141130100
681816-312.22272282217141030100
671716-411.84264273216120030100
661717-311.1524624431390020100
651617-410.0721720541070020000
641618-38.471781654640010000
631619-26.571371253420000000
621519-34.55105932210000000
611520-22.8363621110000000
601420-31.6142311100000000
591421-20.812120000000000
581321-30.4010100000000
571322-20.10000000000000
561222-30.10000000000
551223-20.000000
541224-10.000
29-53No
Total:14.1%3.914.13.717.14.95.917.015.84.83.85.70.81.30.20.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

ThursdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose vs Vegas+0.6+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3
Colorado vs Anaheim+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Arizona vs Minnesota-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
100-103100
99341-21000
98342-110000
97332-210000
96333-110000
95323-29910
94324-19910
93314-29820
92304-39640
91305-293700
90295-3901000
89296-28515000
88286-37821000
87287-271290000
86277-361380000
85278-251481000
84268-3415810000
83269-23167200000
82259-32174311000
812510-21478422000
802410-387964300000
792411-247578410000
782311-326871463000000
772211-415872176000000
762212-3045629811101000
752112-403243571820100000
742113-30202385245231000000
732013-40111363288452000000
722014-305031227111075100000
711914-420221221218910301000
701915-30014014102581581300000
691815-400707628619143711000
681816-30030232431820811330100
671716-4001011161122015147803000
661717-30000906152113101617100
651617-4000402920812253133000
641618-3000101415410297199200
631518-4000001916261121186100
621519-3000040217131725154100
611419-4000201912112625113000
601420-3001004952030218200
591320-400001521126291861000
581321-30000315162827155100
571221-400101820302511300
561222-3000003112430218200
551122-4001414263017710
541123-3001619292813310
531124-20282329231020
521024-31412273218510
51924-40051732261640
50925-3039243218112
49825-419143131851
48826-36223718124
47827-214571414
46828-15050
45728-2100
44729-15050
29037-0199
Total:1142315393422211010000000000000000