Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.003 to 89.1%
24 points   12 8-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Chicago 2 Tampa Bay 3 (ot)-0.1
Vancouver 3 Toronto 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Colorado vs Anaheim+1.5+1.5+1.2-1.4-1.4-4.4
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
Los Angeles vs St. Louis+0.2-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.6+0.2
Arizona vs Minnesota*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.3+0.2
+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
San Jose vs Vegas-0.1-0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Tampa Bay+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
92-96In99.8%10021,350*
91332-1In93.910001,250*
90322-2In90.4100003,740*
89323-1In84.3100009,310*
88313-2In79.0990023,026*
87303-3In70.8990151,864*
86304-2In61.69802108,810*
85294-3In51.29613213,217*
84295-2In40.19415395,325*
83285-3In29.390280691,752*
82286-2In19.88541101,155,716*
81276-3In12.27861601,828,291*
80277-2In6.67082202,773,544*
79267-3In3.159112904,001,227*
78268-2In1.3481437005,563,937*
77258-3In0.4361745107,389,532*
76259-2In0.1251954209,463,456*
75249-3In0.01619615011,634,826*
742410-2100.0%0.09176680013,805,593*
732310-3100.00.0414681400015,764,904*
722210-4100.00.02106721100017,400,156*
712211-3100.00.016613020018,516,941*
702111-499.9No035240400019,066,522*
692112-399.8No0241498100018,960,551*
682012-499.2No01295413210018,266,629*
672013-397.7No00195418720017,013,639*
661913-494.4No0011482115500015,365,075*
651914-388.2No053819261020013,423,617*
641814-478.5No0227133615510011,366,711*
631815-365.3No116841191230009,327,481*
621715-450.1No09338202271007,422,588*
611716-334.8No041301730163005,719,245*
601616-421.7No010201132278104,280,473*
591617-311.9No0001162836162003,098,859*
581517-45.8No000631939276002,179,956*
571518-32.4No0021113437121001,483,398*
561418-40.9No00105254222400981,073*
551419-30.3No0002154132910628,430*
541319-40.1No0001833391720389,059*
531320-30.0No000423412650233,851*
521220-40.0No0001143835101135,710*
511221-30.0No0008304118276,998*
501121-4OutNo04214327542,084*
491122-3OutNo021340361022,289*
481123-2OutNo01832431611,210*
471023-3OutNo042546255,635*
46923-4OutNo021846352,735*
45924-3OutNo011142461,200*
44925-2OutNo063460577*
43825-3OutNo053065221*
42826-2OutNo3217692*
41726-3OutNo39734*
40727-2OutNo217924*
39728-1OutNo33673*
24-38OutNo10020,886*
Total:89.1%0.6%8635266843210000260,344,622

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasNY IslandersBostonMinnesotaPhiladelphiaWashingtonSt. LouisLos AngelesPittsburghNY RangersArizonaNew JerseySan JoseAnaheimBuffalo
96360-07.7%2001611313211100400
95350-1No3367
94351-03.84193131484
93341-19.3111121273522926
92331-25.112117322923221340
91332-18.02121723272543101300
90322-27.3211163326283391300
89323-18.2222163426263391300
88313-27.6222163426264391300
87303-37.5222163426254391300
86304-27.5222163425254491300
85294-37.6232174525244481300
84295-27.4233174524234481300
83285-37.4233184523225481200
82286-27.3233204523215471200
81276-37.2233224522205471200
80277-27.1233244621195461200
79267-37.0333274520185461200
78268-26.8333304519174451100
77258-36.7433334518154351100
76259-26.5633374418153340100
75249-36.4722403418143240100
742410-26.2922422318142230100
732310-36.11011442218141130100
722210-45.91211461119141130000
712211-35.81211461119141030000
2110-55.81311461119141030000
702111-45.71311461119140030000
2212-25.71311461119140030000
692112-35.61411451119130030000
2011-55.61422451119130030000
682012-45.51533422117120030000
672013-35.41744383215100030000
661913-45.1205533431380020000
651914-34.8256626431060020000
641814-44.228661943740010000
631815-33.529551332420010000
621715-42.62734822210000000
611716-31.82122511110000000
601717-21.11411310000000000
591617-30.6811100000000000
581618-20.3400100000000000
571518-30.120000000000000
561519-20.010000000000000
551419-30.0000000000000
541420-20.000000000000
531320-30.00000000
521321-2No000
511322-1No00
24-50No
Total:5.2%14.12.72.734.12.32.214.810.81.10.82.80.10.50.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

ThursdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Colorado vs Anaheim-0.4-0.4-0.3+0.4+0.4+1.1
Arizona vs Minnesota-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
San Jose vs Vegas-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Los Angeles vs St. Louis-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
96360-01000
94-95100
93341-1991
92331-2964
91332-19460
90322-290900
89323-1841500
88313-27921000
87303-37128001
86304-262360020
85294-351451030
84295-240541050
83285-32961207000
82286-220653111100
81276-3126642152000
80277-2763531930000
79267-3356562270000
78268-214759241200000
77258-30364132420101000
76259-20253162130302000
75249-301621716385140000
742410-2091161044937100000
732310-304014543136103000000
722210-40201023715131272010000
712211-3010612614201313402000
702111-40030151126111991400000
692112-3002077287221637110000
682012-40010232432022910320100
672013-3000011171142216136702000
661913-4000001007182311914151000
651914-3000503112581123292000
641814-40002015214103061461000
631815-300100214162912161341000
621715-4000080321161521113000
611716-30004011317102421920000
601616-40001006145202718610000
591617-3000002921226271551000
581517-400001516182925123000
571518-3000202922302292000
561418-400010031326291971000
551419-30000015172828155100
541319-400000028203025123000
531320-3000031125302182000
521220-400015152829175100
511221-30002720302612300
501121-400311253121710
491122-300151630301530
481123-20029233325810
471023-30141431331530
46923-401825362470
45924-303153534121
44925-20282638233
43825-3241944266
42826-21141408
41726-36532912
40727-24254625
39728-16733
38628-2333333
37528-3100
35429-3100
24036-00100
Total:171551551158764362332111000000000