"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Buffalo 3-2, playoff odds up 1.2 to 98.5%
59 points   28 13-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Buffalo 2 Pittsburgh 3 +1.4
+0.1
+0.7
NY Rangers 6 New Jersey 3 -0.6
Philadelphia 3 Washington 6 +0.4
Carolina 3 Nashville 1 -0.1
Tampa Bay 3 Florida 5 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Buffalo vs Pittsburgh-1.1+0.0+0.0+0.7+0.9+0.9
-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
-1.1-0.4-0.4+0.8+0.9+1.0
New Jersey vs NY Rangers+0.6+0.2+0.2-0.3-0.5-0.5
Boston vs Washington-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
Anaheim vs Vegas+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Vancouver vs Toronto+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
83120-0In88.5%9010548,351
82110-1In78.3821801,128,217
81111-0In64.2712905,245,124*
80101-1In46.156421010,665,037*
79102-0In28.641563016,251,818
91-2In27.240564011,470,588*
7892-1In13.225678037,001,448
81-3In12.124641107,661,499*
7793-0In4.81472140041,812,711
82-2In4.21369190037,927,509
71-4In3.7126523003,454,726*
7683-1In1.0565291085,708,809
72-3In0.8559351024,132,291*
7573-2In0.1248464078,092,592
84-0In0.1256403072,611,645
62-4In0.114252509,428,407*
7474-1In0.00355690132,352,799
63-3In0.00286012041,515,810
52-5In0.0022611612,552,692*
7364-2100.0%0.0017602210105,496,617
75-0100.00.002259181089,722,394
53-4100.00.001259262014,667,876*
7265-1100.00.008533540143,077,274
54-3100.0No0550396048,073,674
43-5100.0No034543803,296,415*
7155-2100.0No02374912097,764,525
66-0100.0No03404610080,822,431
44-4100.0No01335115014,185,108*
7056-199.9No0123532300110,484,363
45-399.8No02053270037,126,202
34-599.6No0165133002,542,043*
6946-299.1No010484101062,935,922
57-099.4No012503701053,512,141
35-498.7No0945450108,743,938*
6847-197.2No05385503060,953,191
36-396.0No04345804020,290,409*
6737-291.3No01236709027,772,054
48-093.5No02266607025,830,151
26-488.9No01196801103,353,688*
6638-183.3No001370116023,535,626
27-378.7No0106712106,626,973*
6539-073.2No0666126108,870,006
28-266.9No0561232108,774,634*
6429-152.3No0248344407,317,088*
63210-040.8No0137452702,055,887
19-233.2No00294561101,450,037*
62110-121.5No0184582001,040,082*
61111-012.6No094553210395,407*
60011-14.8No03243503065,616
59012-02.2No11315980154,657
Total:98.5%1.7%322342514010001,690,498,502

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupColoradoVegasMinnesotaWashingtonNY IslandersBostonSt. LouisArizonaNY RangersLos AngelesSan JosePhiladelphiaAnaheimNew Jersey
83120-06.2%001126452929500
82110-16.30012310412648400
81111-06.20003516362267400
100-26.20003616362257400
80101-16.20004923291786300
79102-06.3000613302212104210
91-26.300061530211294210
7892-16.2000819361471122100
81-36.2000821361371022100
7793-06.2000102340841211100
82-26.2000102639731111100
71-46.200010293873101110
7683-16.2000123140311100100
72-36.3000123439311000100
7573-26.200015373710900100
84-06.3000153438101000100
62-46.30001539361080010
7474-16.200018413300700100
63-36.30001842330060000
52-56.30001843330050000
7364-26.200020443000500000
75-06.300021423000600000
53-46.30002044310040000
7265-16.20002245280040000
54-36.3000224529003000
43-56.3000224430003000
7155-26.2110244428003000
66-06.30002444270030000
44-46.311024432900300
7056-16.2110274226003000
45-36.211027412600300
34-56.3220293826020
6946-26.222032372300200
57-06.222032392300200
35-46.2330343423020
6847-16.13303832190020
36-36.04313929190010
6737-25.754143231410
48-05.8441432615010
26-45.665143201410
6638-15.2651431811000
27-34.965141151000
6539-04.66514014800
28-24.26513711700
6429-13.3651298500
63210-02.4541205300
62110-11.343011210
61111-00.8220611
60011-10.3110200
59012-00.1100100
Total:6.2%0.90.80.222.136.529.01.80.95.40.30.20.30.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo 2 Pittsburgh 3 -0.8
Philadelphia 3 Washington 6 +0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo vs Pittsburgh+1.0+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.8-0.8
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Boston vs Washington-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
83120-089210
82110-17841800
81111-0647290000
100-2647290000
80101-146104201000
79102-029125612000
91-227135514000
7892-113126436020000
81-31212623902000
7793-05965791500000
82-248617111600000
71-448577142800000
7683-11452131231401000
72-31446131441701000
7573-20131189730030000
84-0023719962602000
62-401261610833040100
7474-10016185743161200
63-30013155846281200
52-500101248472112301
7364-200512154861147010
75-000715154751035010
53-40039154761358020
7265-10017023912128150400
54-3015023612129170600
43-50130232111411190800
7155-20020121168132711200
66-00030123169122511000
44-40010118148132811500
7056-10010091441333423000
45-3000071341233427000
34-5000061031232433000
6946-200002819309410010
57-0000031019318370010
35-40002718288450010
6847-1000040520135410030
36-3000030418125710040
6737-200010291263400900
48-0000202101463300700
26-4000101711635001100
6638-100000139609101600
27-30000285711102100
6539-00000154817102710
28-200001443182031100
6429-1000226222043500
63210-000001222315111100
62110-100314315025300
61111-001822393711100
60011-1003112141267100
59012-001019313617400
Total:221573322655122141001000000