Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Buffalo 3-2, playoff odds up 1.2 to 98.5%

59 points 28 13-3

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Buffalo 2 Pittsburgh 3	+1.4		+0.1		+0.7
NY Rangers 6 New Jersey 3	-0.6
Philadelphia 3 Washington 6	+0.4
Carolina 3 Nashville 1					-0.1
Tampa Bay 3 Florida 5					+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Buffalo vs Pittsburgh	-1.1+0.0+0.0+0.7+0.9+0.9		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1		-1.1-0.4-0.4+0.8+0.9+1.0
New Jersey vs NY Rangers	+0.6+0.2+0.2-0.3-0.5-0.5
Boston vs Washington	-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1				+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders	+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
Anaheim vs Vegas					+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Vancouver vs Toronto					+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

83	12	0		-	0	In		88.5	%	90	10													548,351
82	11	0		-	1	In		78.3		82	18	0												1,128,217
81	11	1		-	0	In		64.2		71	29	0												5,245,124	*
80	10	1		-	1	In		46.1		56	42	1	0											10,665,037	*
79	10	2		-	0	In		28.6		41	56	3	0											16,251,818
	9	1		-	2	In		27.2		40	56	4	0											11,470,588	*
78	9	2		-	1	In		13.2		25	67	8	0											37,001,448
	8	1		-	3	In		12.1		24	64	11	0											7,661,499	*
77	9	3		-	0	In		4.8		14	72	14	0	0										41,812,711
	8	2		-	2	In		4.2		13	69	19	0	0										37,927,509
	7	1		-	4	In		3.7		12	65	23	0	0										3,454,726	*
76	8	3		-	1	In		1.0		5	65	29	1	0										85,708,809
	7	2		-	3	In		0.8		5	59	35	1	0										24,132,291	*
75	7	3		-	2	In		0.1		2	48	46	4	0										78,092,592
	8	4		-	0	In		0.1		2	56	40	3	0										72,611,645
	6	2		-	4	In		0.1		1	42	52	5	0										9,428,407	*
74	7	4		-	1	In		0.0		0	35	56	9	0										132,352,799
	6	3		-	3	In		0.0		0	28	60	12	0										41,515,810
	5	2		-	5	In		0.0		0	22	61	16	1										2,552,692	*
73	6	4		-	2	100.0	%	0.0		0	17	60	22	1		0								105,496,617
	7	5		-	0	100.0		0.0		0	22	59	18	1		0								89,722,394
	5	3		-	4	100.0		0.0		0	12	59	26	2		0								14,667,876	*
72	6	5		-	1	100.0		0.0		0	8	53	35	4		0								143,077,274
	5	4		-	3	100.0		No		0	5	50	39	6		0								48,073,674
	4	3		-	5	100.0		No		0	3	45	43	8		0								3,296,415	*
71	5	5		-	2	100.0		No		0	2	37	49	12		0								97,764,525
	6	6		-	0	100.0		No		0	3	40	46	10		0								80,822,431
	4	4		-	4	100.0		No		0	1	33	51	15		0								14,185,108	*
70	5	6		-	1	99.9		No		0	1	23	53	23	0	0								110,484,363
	4	5		-	3	99.8		No			0	20	53	27	0	0								37,126,202
	3	4		-	5	99.6		No			0	16	51	33	0	0								2,542,043	*
69	4	6		-	2	99.1		No			0	10	48	41	0	1	0							62,935,922
	5	7		-	0	99.4		No			0	12	50	37	0	1	0							53,512,141
	3	5		-	4	98.7		No			0	9	45	45	0	1	0							8,743,938	*
68	4	7		-	1	97.2		No			0	5	38	55	0	3	0							60,953,191
	3	6		-	3	96.0		No			0	4	34	58	0	4	0							20,290,409	*
67	3	7		-	2	91.3		No			0	1	23	67	0	9	0							27,772,054
	4	8		-	0	93.5		No			0	2	26	66	0	7	0							25,830,151
	2	6		-	4	88.9		No			0	1	19	68	0	11	0							3,353,688	*
66	3	8		-	1	83.3		No			0	0	13	70	1	16	0							23,535,626
	2	7		-	3	78.7		No				0	10	67	1	21	0							6,626,973	*
65	3	9		-	0	73.2		No				0	6	66	1	26	1	0						8,870,006
	2	8		-	2	66.9		No				0	5	61	2	32	1	0						8,774,634	*
64	2	9		-	1	52.3		No				0	2	48	3	44	4	0						7,317,088	*
63	2	10		-	0	40.8		No				0	1	37	4	52	7	0						2,055,887
	1	9		-	2	33.2		No				0	0	29	4	56	11	0						1,450,037	*
62	1	10		-	1	21.5		No					0	18	4	58	20	0						1,040,082	*
61	1	11		-	0	12.6		No					0	9	4	55	32	1	0					395,407	*
60	0	11		-	1	4.8		No					0	3	2	43	50	3	0					65,616
59	0	12		-	0	2.2		No						1	1	31	59	8	0					154,657

Total:						98.5	%	1.7	%	3	22	34	25	14	0	1	0	0	0					1,690,498,502

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:								Chance will play in first round
TP	W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Colorado	Vegas	Minnesota	Washington	NY Islanders	Boston	St. Louis	Arizona	NY Rangers	Los Angeles	San Jose	Philadelphia	Anaheim	New Jersey

83	12	0		-	0	6.2	%	0	0	1	1	2	6	45	29	2	9	5	0	0
82	11	0		-	1	6.3		0	0	1	2	3	10	41	26	4	8	4	0	0
81	11	1		-	0	6.2		0	0	0	3	5	16	36	22	6	7	4	0	0
	10	0		-	2	6.2		0	0	0	3	6	16	36	22	5	7	4	0	0
80	10	1		-	1	6.2		0	0	0	4	9	23	29	17	8	6	3	0	0
79	10	2		-	0	6.3		0	0	0	6	13	30	22	12	10	4	2	1	0
	9	1		-	2	6.3		0	0	0	6	15	30	21	12	9	4	2	1	0
78	9	2		-	1	6.2		0	0	0	8	19	36	14	7	11	2	2	1	0	0
	8	1		-	3	6.2		0	0	0	8	21	36	13	7	10	2	2	1	0	0
77	9	3		-	0	6.2		0	0	0	10	23	40	8	4	12	1	1	1	0	0
	8	2		-	2	6.2		0	0	0	10	26	39	7	3	11	1	1	1	0	0
	7	1		-	4	6.2		0	0	0	10	29	38	7	3	10	1	1	1	0
76	8	3		-	1	6.2		0	0	0	12	31	40	3	1	11	0	0	1	0	0
	7	2		-	3	6.3		0	0	0	12	34	39	3	1	10	0	0	1	0	0
75	7	3		-	2	6.2		0	0	0	15	37	37	1	0	9	0	0	1	0	0
	8	4		-	0	6.3		0	0	0	15	34	38	1	0	10	0	0	1	0	0
	6	2		-	4	6.3		0	0	0	15	39	36	1	0	8	0	0	1	0
74	7	4		-	1	6.2		0	0	0	18	41	33	0	0	7	0	0	1	0	0
	6	3		-	3	6.3		0	0	0	18	42	33	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
	5	2		-	5	6.3		0	0	0	18	43	33	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
73	6	4		-	2	6.2		0	0	0	20	44	30	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
	7	5		-	0	6.3		0	0	0	21	42	30	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
	5	3		-	4	6.3		0	0	0	20	44	31	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
72	6	5		-	1	6.2		0	0	0	22	45	28	0	0	4	0	0	0		0
	5	4		-	3	6.3		0	0	0	22	45	29	0	0	3	0	0	0
	4	3		-	5	6.3		0	0	0	22	44	30	0	0	3	0	0	0
71	5	5		-	2	6.2		1	1	0	24	44	28	0	0	3	0	0	0
	6	6		-	0	6.3		0	0	0	24	44	27	0	0	3	0	0	0		0
	4	4		-	4	6.3		1	1	0	24	43	29	0	0	3	0		0
70	5	6		-	1	6.2		1	1	0	27	42	26	0	0	3	0	0	0
	4	5		-	3	6.2		1	1	0	27	41	26	0	0	3	0		0
	3	4		-	5	6.3		2	2	0	29	38	26	0		2			0
69	4	6		-	2	6.2		2	2	0	32	37	23	0	0	2	0		0
	5	7		-	0	6.2		2	2	0	32	39	23	0	0	2	0		0
	3	5		-	4	6.2		3	3	0	34	34	23	0		2			0
68	4	7		-	1	6.1		3	3	0	38	32	19	0	0	2			0
	3	6		-	3	6.0		4	3	1	39	29	19	0	0	1			0
67	3	7		-	2	5.7		5	4	1	43	23	14			1			0
	4	8		-	0	5.8		4	4	1	43	26	15	0		1			0
	2	6		-	4	5.6		6	5	1	43	20	14			1			0
66	3	8		-	1	5.2		6	5	1	43	18	11	0		0			0
	2	7		-	3	4.9		6	5	1	41	15	10			0			0
65	3	9		-	0	4.6		6	5	1	40	14	8			0			0
	2	8		-	2	4.2		6	5	1	37	11	7			0			0
64	2	9		-	1	3.3		6	5	1	29	8	5			0			0
63	2	10		-	0	2.4		5	4	1	20	5	3			0			0
62	1	10		-	1	1.3		4	3	0	11	2	1			0
61	1	11		-	0	0.8		2	2	0	6	1	1
60	0	11		-	1	0.3		1	1	0	2	0	0
59	0	12		-	0	0.1		1	0	0	1	0	0

Total:						6.2	%	0.9	0.8	0.2	22.1	36.5	29.0	1.8	0.9	5.4	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.0

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Buffalo 2 Pittsburgh 3	-0.8
Philadelphia 3 Washington 6	+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Buffalo vs Pittsburgh	+1.0+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.8-0.8
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders	-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Boston vs Washington	-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.0

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

83	12	0		-	0	89	2	10
82	11	0		-	1	78	4	18	0	0
81	11	1		-	0	64	7	29	0	0	0	0
	10	0		-	2	64	7	29	0	0	0	0
80	10	1		-	1	46	10	42	0	1	0	0		0
79	10	2		-	0	29	12	56	1	2	0	0		0
	9	1		-	2	27	13	55	1	4	0	0		0
78	9	2		-	1	13	12	64	3	6	0	2	0	0	0	0
	8	1		-	3	12	12	62	3	9	0	2		0	0	0
77	9	3		-	0	5	9	65	7	9	1	5	0	0	0	0		0
	8	2		-	2	4	8	61	7	11	1	6	0	0	0	0		0
	7	1		-	4	4	8	57	7	14	2	8	0	0	0	0		0
76	8	3		-	1	1	4	52	13	12	3	14	0	1	0	0		0
	7	2		-	3	1	4	46	13	14	4	17	0	1	0	0		0
75	7	3		-	2	0	1	31	18	9	7	30	0	3	0	0	0	0
	8	4		-	0	0	2	37	19	9	6	26	0	2	0	0		0
	6	2		-	4	0	1	26	16	10	8	33	0	4	0	1	0	0
74	7	4		-	1	0	0	16	18	5	7	43	1	6	1	2	0	0
	6	3		-	3	0	0	13	15	5	8	46	2	8	1	2	0	0
	5	2		-	5	0	0	10	12	4	8	47	2	11	2	3	0	1
73	6	4		-	2	0	0	5	12	1	5	48	6	11	4	7	0	1				0
	7	5		-	0	0	0	7	15	1	5	47	5	10	3	5	0	1				0
	5	3		-	4	0	0	3	9	1	5	47	6	13	5	8	0	2				0
72	6	5		-	1	0	0	1	7	0	2	39	12	12	8	15	0	4	0			0
	5	4		-	3		0	1	5	0	2	36	12	12	9	17	0	6	0			0
	4	3		-	5		0	1	3	0	2	32	11	14	11	19	0	8	0			0
71	5	5		-	2		0	0	2	0	1	21	16	8	13	27	1	12	0			0
	6	6		-	0		0	0	3	0	1	23	16	9	12	25	1	10	0			0
	4	4		-	4		0	0	1	0	1	18	14	8	13	28	1	15	0			0
70	5	6		-	1		0	0	1	0	0	9	14	4	13	33	4	23	0	0		0
	4	5		-	3			0	0	0	0	7	13	4	12	33	4	27	0	0		0
	3	4		-	5			0	0	0	0	6	10	3	12	32	4	33	0	0		0
69	4	6		-	2			0	0	0	0	2	8	1	9	30	9	41	0	0		1	0
	5	7		-	0			0	0	0	0	3	10	1	9	31	8	37	0	0		1	0
	3	5		-	4				0	0	0	2	7	1	8	28	8	45	0	0		1	0
68	4	7		-	1			0	0		0	0	4	0	5	20	13	54	1	0	0	3	0
	3	6		-	3			0	0		0	0	3	0	4	18	12	57	1	0	0	4	0
67	3	7		-	2				0		0	0	1	0	2	9	12	63	4	0	0	9	0	0
	4	8		-	0				0		0	0	2	0	2	10	14	63	3	0	0	7	0	0
	2	6		-	4				0		0	0	1	0	1	7	11	63	5	0	0	11	0	0
66	3	8		-	1				0		0	0	0	0	1	3	9	60	9	1	0	16	0	0
	2	7		-	3							0	0	0	0	2	8	57	11	1	0	21	0	0
65	3	9		-	0							0	0	0	0	1	5	48	17	1	0	27	1	0
	2	8		-	2							0	0	0	0	1	4	43	18	2	0	31	1	0	0
64	2	9		-	1								0		0	0	2	26	22	2	0	43	5	0	0
63	2	10		-	0								0		0	0	0	12	22	3	1	51	11	1	0	0
62	1	10		-	1											0	0	3	14	3	1	50	25	3	0	0
61	1	11		-	0												0	1	8	2	2	39	37	11	1	0	0
60	0	11		-	1												0	0	3	1	1	21	41	26	7	1	0	0
59	0	12		-	0													0	1	0	1	9	31	36	17	4	0	0

Total:						2	2	15	7	3	3	22	6	5	5	12	2	14	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0