Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances

Lost to Houston 9-19, playoff odds down 11.3 to 14.6%
1-2-0   .333

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Houston 19 Tampa Bay 9 -5.4
-0.2
-0.6
Dallas 28 Atlanta 39 -0.7
-0.0
-0.0
St. Louis 6 Pittsburgh 12 +0.6
+0.1
Carolina 27 New Orleans 22 -0.4
-0.0
-0.0
Minnesota 31 San Diego 14 -0.4
-0.0
NY Jets 17 Philadelphia 24 -0.3
-0.1
NY Giants 32 Washington 21 +0.2
-0.0
Detroit 12 Denver 24 +0.2
+0.1
Arizona 47 San Francisco 7 +0.1
+0.0
Seattle 26 Chicago 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Green Bay vs Kansas City-0.2*-0.8+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Carolina+8.2*-1.3-5.8
+0.2*+0.1-0.1
+1.1*-0.1-0.8
Atlanta vs Houston-0.5*-0.4+0.8
Denver vs Minnesota+0.4*-0.5-0.6
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Detroit-0.3*+0.5+0.6
Buffalo vs NY Giants+0.2*-0.3-0.4
+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Arizona vs St. Louis+0.1*-0.1-0.3
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas+0.2*-1.0-0.2
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay+0.2*+0.2-0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Chicago vs Oakland-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Tampa Bay finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1413-0-0In973586
1312-1-0In8910012,102
12.511-1-1In68181422
1211-2-0In60272011017,258
11.510-2-1In303410232176
1110-3-099.9%2132101333083,463
10.59-3-199.852017144130820
109-4-096.72111344522300273,484
8-3-2In33673
9.58-4-185.702743340131002,242
98-5-065.601341938267100640,580
7-4-283.38842258812
8.57-5-128.40142337258104,625
87-6-012.7001110273220710001,100,672
6-5-218.866625441316
7.56-6-10.7016203227123006,932
76-7-00.20000292129241130001,396,855
5-6-2Out52732235922
6.55-7-1Out004142931174007,567
65-8-00.000001617292815401,317,436
4-7-2Out1111222822618
5.54-8-1Out0031330351636,016
54-9-0Out00162035309909,110
3-8-2Out62538191316
4.53-9-1Out052344273,333
43-10-0Out002144143445,938
2-9-2Out1429577
3.52-10-1Out0428681,222
32-11-0Out012079148,434
1-10-2Out1002
2.51-11-1Out793273
21-12-0Out049629,274
1.50-12-1Out10028
10-13-0Out01003,200
Total:14.6%11115788899999876,401,744

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Tampa Bay finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeArizonaAtlantaCarolinaGreen BayMinnesotaDallasNY GiantsSeattleWashingtonPhiladelphiaSt. LouisSan FranciscoDetroitNew OrleansChicago
1413-0-05.8%Yes
1312-1-06.999000000000
12.511-1-14.58695
1211-2-05.687100113201100000
11.510-2-13.4642225585232
1110-3-03.8533335510624411100
10.59-3-12.82574610812102562110
109-4-02.01376611914946621101
8-3-2No333333
9.58-4-11.62867131012745521101
98-5-00.917561179534411100
7-4-2No88331788
8.57-5-10.3323633212100000
87-6-00.20211312101100000
6-5-2No666
7.56-6-1No00000000000
76-7-00.0000000000000000
5-6-2No
6.55-7-1No
65-8-0No0000
4-7-2No
1-5.5No
Total:0.3%1.61.41.01.12.11.51.91.20.50.90.80.30.10.20.10.1
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24100.0*Lottery seed
Houston 19 Tampa Bay 9 +1.6
Detroit 12 Denver 24 -0.1
Seattle 26 Chicago 0 +0.1
Carolina 27 New Orleans 22 +0.0
Dallas 28 Atlanta 39 +0.0
New England 51 Jacksonville 17 +0.0
Arizona 47 San Francisco 7 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Green Bay vs Kansas City-0.0+0.2+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Carolina-2.2-0.9+1.6
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville-0.0-0.2+0.0
Denver vs Minnesota-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants+0.0+0.1-0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay+0.1*-0.1-0.0
Chicago vs Oakland-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Miami vs NY Jets+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Atlanta vs Houston-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Washington vs Philadelphia+0.0*-0.3-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1413-0-09343
1312-1-057329101
12.511-1-132361814
1211-2-015452072001010
11.510-2-15262311102222
1110-3-012092373102211300
10.59-3-105515125127171200
109-4-0020114931113414831000
8-3-2333333
9.58-4-1021631528231711200
98-5-000103231186327119520000
7-4-288422588
8.57-5-100141228202314510
87-6-0000101010025101620171041000
6-5-26666251319136
7.56-6-10101412212620114100
76-7-0000000000248152021169310000
5-6-2591427231455
6.55-7-10026152325179310
65-8-0000000137142123189300
4-7-211171122611176
5.54-8-101614252718710
54-9-0000016152629185
3-8-2196253813
4.53-9-1001619343110
43-10-000014184037
2-9-2145729
3.52-10-1183655
32-11-00022077
1-10-25050
2.51-11-11189
21-12-00496
1.50-12-1100
10-13-00100
Total:00010100141511223444455555666666