Detroit Lions Playoff Chances

Lost to Denver 12-24, playoff odds down 9.9 to 7.2%
0-3-0   .000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Detroit 12 Denver 24 -4.5
-0.2
-0.7
Minnesota 31 San Diego 14 -0.8
-0.0
-0.1
St. Louis 6 Pittsburgh 12 +0.3
Houston 19 Tampa Bay 9 +0.2
+0.0
NY Jets 17 Philadelphia 24 -0.2
-0.1
Dallas 28 Atlanta 39 -0.2
Carolina 27 New Orleans 22 -0.1
+0.0
NY Giants 32 Washington 21 +0.1
-0.0
Arizona 47 San Francisco 7 +0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Green Bay vs Kansas City-0.5*+0.2+0.7
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Seattle vs Detroit-2.8*+0.5+5.4
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.6*+0.1+1.2
Denver vs Minnesota+0.5*-0.1-0.7
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay+0.6*-0.2-0.4
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Houston-0.1*+0.1+0.2
Buffalo vs NY Giants+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas+0.1*+0.3-0.1
-0.0-0.1+0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Oakland-0.1*+0.2+0.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Washington vs Philadelphia-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina+0.1*-0.6-0.0
-0.1*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Detroit finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1313-0-0In891100668
12.512-0-1In67333
1212-1-0In613050402,891
11.511-1-1In3241161137
1111-2-0100.0%2140191172022,388
10-1-2In1001
10.510-2-199.56332871970215
1010-3-097.2215289281630103,874
9.59-3-190.2032116193291930
99-4-067.9019131431247100320,219
8-3-266.7333317176
8.58-4-135.521132033237102,554
88-5-014.90151826312072000713,490
7-4-260.06020205
7.57-5-12.40216203026133004,994
77-6-00.80100282028241231001,162,581
6-5-2Out9184518911
6.56-6-10.10003132931185107,395
66-7-00.000001516282916401,406,871
5-6-2Out66172817171118
5.55-7-1Out0021229351947,611
55-8-00.000015183432111,264,497
4-7-2Out63119311316
4.54-8-1Out0042045315,584
44-9-0Out001113948832,891
3-8-2Out2244339
3.53-9-1Out326722,843
33-10-0Out0011584388,964
2-9-2Out1001
2.52-10-1Out6941,039
22-11-0Out0397122,846
1-10-2Out1002
1.51-11-1Out0100214
11-12-0Out010023,525
0-11-2Out1001
0-0.5Out1002,550*
Total:7.2%001213456789111213166,401,744

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Detroit finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeArizonaAtlantaCarolinaGreen BayMinnesotaDallasNY GiantsSeattleWashingtonPhiladelphiaSt. LouisTampa BaySan FranciscoNew OrleansChicago
1313-0-05.5%100000
12.512-0-1NoYes
1212-1-06.19111111111110000
11.511-1-18.173333333533
1111-2-04.761433546433211100
10-1-2NoYes
10.510-2-13.73965796462452501
1010-3-02.51797811810755432110
9.59-3-11.1310991298665542110
99-4-01.118771077544322110
8-3-2No5017
8.58-4-10.5455544222111000
88-5-00.20222211111110000
7-4-2No202020
7.57-5-10.101000000000000
77-6-00.0000000000000000
6-5-2No
6.56-6-1No000000
66-7-00.0000000000000
5-6-2No
5.55-7-1No
55-8-0No00
4-7-2No
0-4.5No
Total:0.1%0.60.80.80.80.90.70.70.50.40.40.30.20.20.10.10.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 12 Denver 24 +1.8
Cleveland 20 Oakland 27 -0.1
Seattle 26 Chicago 0 +0.0
Tennessee 33 Indianapolis 35 +0.0
Minnesota 31 San Diego 14 +0.0
Carolina 27 New Orleans 22 +0.0
Arizona 47 San Francisco 7 -0.0
New England 51 Jacksonville 17 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Green Bay vs Kansas City-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
Seattle vs Detroit+1.2-1.0-2.3
Tampa Bay vs Carolina+0.1+0.1-0.1
Washington vs Philadelphia+0.1*-0.1-0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland-0.1*+0.2+0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay+0.1*+0.0-0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs NY Jets+0.1*+0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore-0.0*-0.4+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota-0.0-0.1+0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants-0.0*-0.1+0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Oakland-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1313-0-072171100
12.512-0-1333333
1212-1-01646219400400
11.511-1-152724161611
1111-2-0120103014510125200
10-1-2100
10.510-2-167262177145700
1010-3-002015721727211052000
9.59-3-103318115316191382
99-4-00010958013427711841000
8-3-233331717
8.58-4-10237311981919135100
88-5-0001150108026121719159410000
7-4-2602020
7.57-5-100210141221242011410
77-6-00010000001251015191915831000
6-5-2272791899
6.56-6-10000261523231893100
66-7-00000000148152122179300
5-6-21762217111711
5.55-7-1001513242719810
55-8-000000026152628184
4-7-2136313119
4.54-8-101517343111
44-9-00015184036
3-8-2223344
3.53-9-10183754
33-10-00022078
2-9-2100
2.52-10-101090
22-11-000496
1-10-2100
1.51-11-10100
11-12-00100
0-11-2100
0-0.5100
Total:0000010101020112223334455667891013