SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances

Beat Tennessee 35-33, playoff odds up 11.9 to 22.1%

1-2-0 .333

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Super Bowl	100.0*	Average seed
Tennessee 33 Indianapolis 35	+8.6		+0.3		+1.4
New England 51 Jacksonville 17	+0.5				+0.0
Houston 19 Tampa Bay 9	-0.4				-0.1
St. Louis 6 Pittsburgh 12	-0.1				-0.0
Detroit 12 Denver 24	-0.1				-0.0
NY Jets 17 Philadelphia 24	+0.1				+0.0
Minnesota 31 San Diego 14	+0.1				+0.0
Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 27					+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.1*-0.9-0.2				+0.0*+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Super Bowl	100.0*	Average seed
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+6.5-4.6-10.0		+0.2*-0.0-0.2		+0.9-0.5-1.4
Atlanta vs Houston	+1.3*-1.1-2.0				+0.1*-0.1-0.2
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.2*+0.4-0.2		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.1*-1.0+0.2				-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.1*-0.1+0.1				+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.1*-1.0-0.1				+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	+0.1*+1.2-0.1				+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Denver vs Minnesota					-0.0*-0.1+0.0
San Diego vs Cleveland					+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Indianapolis finishes out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14		13	-	0	-	0	In		97	3															638
13	.5	12	-	0	-	1	In		67	33															3
13		12	-	1	-	0	In		82	16	1		0												2,648
12	.5	11	-	1	-	1	In		64	23	14														22
12		11	-	2	-	0	In		46	41	12	1	0												20,015
11	.5	10	-	2	-	1	In		28	52	16	2	2												241
11		10	-	3	-	0	100.0	%	12	37	37	10	3	0	0	0									95,048
10	.5	9	-	3	-	1	In		4	25	43	22	4	2											849
10		9	-	4	-	0	97.7		1	10	38	38	5	5	2	0	0	0							303,969
		8	-	3	-	2	In				25	75													4
9	.5	8	-	4	-	1	91.0		0	2	21	51	6	10	7	2	0								2,489
9		8	-	5	-	0	74.0		0	0	11	53	2	8	12	9	4	1	0	0					689,437
		7	-	4	-	2	In				17	67	17												6
8	.5	7	-	5	-	1	47.9				2	41	0	5	15	19	13	5	1						4,950
8		7	-	6	-	0	32.3			0	1	30	0	1	5	14	20	17	9	2	0	0	0		1,146,579
		6	-	5	-	2	27.3					18		9		9	18	18	18	9					11
7	.5	6	-	6	-	1	12.5				0	12		0	1	5	17	29	23	10	2	0			7,100
7		6	-	7	-	0	7.5				0	8	0	0	0	1	6	17	26	24	14	4	1	0	1,407,770
		5	-	6	-	2	8.0					8						12	24	40	12	4			25
6	.5	5	-	7	-	1	1.7					2					1	4	15	30	30	15	4	0	7,591
6		5	-	8	-	0	0.6					1				0	0	1	6	17	29	29	15	3	1,283,981
		4	-	7	-	2	Out													31	50	13		6	16
5	.5	4	-	8	-	1	0.1					0						0	1	3	17	35	33	11	5,684
5		4	-	9	-	0	0.0					0						0	0	1	8	25	40	25	856,168
		3	-	8	-	2	Out															6	53	41	17
4	.5	3	-	9	-	1	Out														1	10	40	48	3,028
4		3	-	10	-	0	Out													0	0	5	30	65	405,155
		2	-	9	-	2	Out																	100	1
3	.5	2	-	10	-	1	Out															1	14	85	1,035
3		2	-	11	-	0	Out														0	0	9	90	129,408
2	.5	1	-	11	-	1	Out																6	94	216
2		1	-	12	-	0	Out																2	98	24,949
1	.5	0	-	12	-	1	Out																	100	21
1		0	-	13	-	0	Out																0	100	2,670

Total:							22.1	%	0	1	4	15	1	1	2	4	5	7	8	9	10	10	11	10	6,401,744

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Indianapolis finishes out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TW		W	-	L	-	T	Win SB		Bye	Denver	New England	Cincinnati	NY Jets	Pittsburgh	Buffalo	Tennessee	Houston	Oakland	Kansas City	San Diego	Jacksonville	Cleveland	Miami	Baltimore

13.5	-14						8.6	%	Yes
13		12	-	1	-	0	7.0		99	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	.5	11	-	1	-	1	13.6		86			5		5	5
12		11	-	2	-	0	6.3		87	1	2	1	2	1	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
11	.5	10	-	2	-	1	7.9		80		2	2	1	3	4	0	1	2	2	1				1
11		10	-	3	-	0	4.3		49	3	7	3	7	5	7	4	2	4	4	2	1	1	1	1
10	.5	9	-	3	-	1	2.9		29	5	8	6	12	7	10	5	2	5	5	3	1	1	1	1
10		9	-	4	-	0	2.4		11	6	11	7	12	8	12	6	3	6	6	3	1	2	2	1
		8	-	3	-	2	No			25	25				25						25
9	.5	8	-	4	-	1	2.1		2	6	12	8	14	8	13	5	3	5	6	3	1	1	1	1
9		8	-	5	-	0	1.4		0	5	11	7	12	6	11	3	2	5	5	2	1	1	1	1
		7	-	4	-	2	No			33	33				17						17
8	.5	7	-	5	-	1	0.8			4	7	4	8	4	9	1	1	3	3	1	0	1	1	0
8		7	-	6	-	0	0.6		0	2	6	3	6	3	6	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
		6	-	5	-	2	No				18											9
7	.5	6	-	6	-	1	0.1			1	2	1	3	1	3			1	1	0		0	0	0
7		6	-	7	-	0	0.1			0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		5	-	6	-	2	No				4		4
6	.5	5	-	7	-	1	0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0			0	0	0			0	0
6		5	-	8	-	0	0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0			0	0	0		0	0	0
		4	-	7	-	2	No
5	.5	4	-	8	-	1	No					0			0
5		4	-	9	-	0	No			0	0	0	0	0	0			0	0				0
		3	-	8	-	2	No
1	-4.5						No

Total:							0.5	%	1.6	1.3	3.2	1.8	3.4	1.8	3.3	0.7	0.4	1.3	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2

Games Above .500 (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tennessee 33 Indianapolis 35	-2.7
NY Jets 17 Philadelphia 24	+0.1
Detroit 12 Denver 24	-0.1
St. Louis 6 Pittsburgh 12	-0.1
Dallas 28 Atlanta 39	-0.1
Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 27	-0.0
Carolina 27 New Orleans 22	-0.0
New England 51 Jacksonville 17	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	-1.7+1.1+2.7
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.1*+0.1+0.2
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Arizona vs St. Louis	-0.0*+0.2+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	+0.1*+0.3-0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.0-0.1+0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Seattle vs Detroit	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Washington vs Philadelphia	+0.0*+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		13	-	0	-	0	93	4	3
13	.5	12	-	0	-	1	67		33
13		12	-	1	-	0	54	28	16	1	1				0
12	.5	11	-	1	-	1	55	9	23		14
12		11	-	2	-	0	14	32	31	9	11	0	1		0	0
11	.5	10	-	2	-	1	5	24	37	15	15	0	2		2	0
11		10	-	3	-	0	1	11	12	25	29	8	10	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
10	.5	9	-	3	-	1		4	5	20	29	14	21	1	4	1	2
10		9	-	4	-	0	0	1	1	9	12	26	31	8	2	3	5	1	2	0	0	0
		8	-	3	-	2						25	75
9	.5	8	-	4	-	1		0		2	3	18	37	14	2	5	8	2	7	2	0
9		8	-	5	-	0		0	0	0	1	10	21	31	0	2	3	5	12	8	4	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	4	-	2						17	17	50		17
8	.5	7	-	5	-	1					0	2	10	31		0	1	4	7	14	17	9	3	1	0		0
8		7	-	6	-	0				0	0	1	3	27	0	0	0	1	3	8	14	15	12	8	5	2	1	0	0	0	0
		6	-	5	-	2								18				9	9	9	18	9	18			9
7	.5	6	-	6	-	1						0	0	12				0		0	1	4	12	19	22	17	8	3	1	0	0
7		6	-	7	-	0						0	0	7		0		0	0	0	0	1	4	9	14	17	17	14	9	5	2	1	0	0	0	0
		5	-	6	-	2								8										4	16	16	36	12	8
6	.5	5	-	7	-	1							0	2										0	0	2	7	15	23	24	17	8	2	1	0
6		5	-	8	-	0							0	1								0	0	0	0	1	2	6	12	18	21	18	12	6	2	0	0	0
		4	-	7	-	2																				6		13	6	38	13	13	6	6
5	.5	4	-	8	-	1								0														0	0	2	5	15	25	26	17	7	1	0
5		4	-	9	-	0								0													0	0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	17	7	1
		3	-	8	-	2																										6	24	29	29	6	6
4	.5	3	-	9	-	1																										0	1	7	19	35	27	10
4		3	-	10	-	0																									0	0	0	3	12	29	37	19
		2	-	9	-	2																														100
3	.5	2	-	10	-	1																												0	1	10	35	53
3		2	-	11	-	0																												0	0	6	31	63
2	.5	1	-	11	-	1																															13	87
2		1	-	12	-	0																														0	9	91
1	.5	0	-	12	-	1																																100
1		0	-	13	-	0																															1	99

Total:							0	0	0	1	1	3	5	10	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3