SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances

Lost to Cincinnati 24-27, playoff odds down 6.7 to 5.4%

0-3-0 .000

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Super Bowl	100.0*	Average seed
Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 27	-5.8		-0.3		-1.0
St. Louis 6 Pittsburgh 12	-0.7		-0.0		-0.1
NY Jets 17 Philadelphia 24	+0.3
New England 51 Jacksonville 17	-0.2
Cleveland 20 Oakland 27	+0.2
Minnesota 31 San Diego 14	+0.2
Detroit 12 Denver 24	-0.2
Miami 14 Buffalo 41	-0.1				-0.0
Tennessee 33 Indianapolis 35	+0.1				-0.0
Houston 19 Tampa Bay 9	-0.1				-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.1*-0.3-0.2				+0.0-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Super Bowl	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-2.8*+0.8+5.2		-0.1*-0.1+0.2		-0.6*+0.2+1.2
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.2*-0.4+0.4		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.3*+0.0-0.2
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.2*-0.1+0.3				-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.2*+0.8-0.2				+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.1*+0.6+0.1				-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Houston	+0.0*+0.2-0.1				+0.0-0.0-0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland	+0.0*-0.7-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Baltimore finishes out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

13		13	-	0	-	0	In		70	27	1		2												819
12	.5	12	-	0	-	1	In		67	33															3
12		12	-	1	-	0	100.0	%	35	42	11	0	11	1	0										5,616
11	.5	11	-	1	-	1	In		48	27	7		18												44
11		11	-	2	-	0	99.1		7	30	26	2	26	8	1	0									37,415
		10	-	1	-	2	In			100															1
10	.5	10	-	2	-	1	97.6		4	21	27	3	33	10	2	0									337
10		10	-	3	-	0	83.4		0	6	21	7	22	28	13	3	0	0							158,019
		9	-	2	-	2	66.7						33	33	33										3
9	.5	9	-	3	-	1	70.7			2	11	7	17	34	22	7	1	0							1,326
9		9	-	4	-	0	31.5		0	0	5	5	4	17	29	26	11	2	0	0	0				445,699
		8	-	3	-	2	Out								50	50									4
8	.5	8	-	4	-	1	12.7				1	3	1	8	25	33	22	7	1	0					3,269
8		8	-	5	-	0	2.9			0	0	1	0	1	7	18	29	25	13	4	1	0	0	0	891,786
		7	-	4	-	2	Out									25	25	50							4
7	.5	7	-	5	-	1	0.4					0		0	1	6	20	32	26	11	2	0	0		5,971
7		7	-	6	-	0	0.1				0	0		0	0	1	6	16	26	27	17	6	1	0	1,298,285
		6	-	5	-	2	Out									6	6	24	24	29	6	6			17
6	.5	6	-	6	-	1	Out									0	0	4	14	30	31	16	4	0	7,515
6		6	-	7	-	0	0.0					0				0	0	1	4	14	28	31	18	4	1,400,090
		5	-	6	-	2	Out												7	13	20	47	13		15
5	.5	5	-	7	-	1	Out											0	0	3	15	35	34	13	6,955
5		5	-	8	-	0	Out										0	0	0	1	6	23	42	28	1,117,462
		4	-	7	-	2	Out															50	30	20	10
4	.5	4	-	8	-	1	Out													0	1	9	37	53	4,648
4		4	-	9	-	0	Out												0	0	0	4	28	68	652,075
		3	-	8	-	2	Out															13	25	63	8
3	.5	3	-	9	-	1	Out															1	11	88	2,193
3		3	-	10	-	0	Out														0	0	8	92	271,135
		2	-	9	-	2	Out																	100	3
2	.5	2	-	10	-	1	Out																2	98	651
2		2	-	11	-	0	Out															0	1	99	75,980
		1	-	10	-	2	Out																	100	1
1	.5	1	-	11	-	1	Out																	100	118
1		1	-	12	-	0	Out																0	100	12,748
0	-0.5						Out																	100	1,519	*

Total:							5.4	%	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	5	6	7	8	9	11	12	15	18	6,401,744

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Baltimore finishes out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TW		W	-	L	-	T	Win SB		Bye	Denver	New England	Cincinnati	NY Jets	Pittsburgh	Buffalo	Tennessee	Houston	Oakland	Kansas City	Indianapolis	San Diego	Jacksonville	Cleveland	Miami

13		13	-	0	-	0	8.5	%	97		0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	1
12	.5	12	-	0	-	1	No		Yes
12		12	-	1	-	0	7.6		77	2	2	2	2	1	2	3	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
11	.5	11	-	1	-	1	6.8		75					2	5	5	5			5		5
11		11	-	2	-	0	4.6		37	6	5	8	5	4	5	8	6	4	3	5	2	2	1	0
		10	-	1	-	2	No		Yes
10	.5	10	-	2	-	1	3.3		25	6	5	8	7	7	6	9	10	4	2	5	2	3
10		10	-	3	-	0	2.3		6	9	7	10	6	6	6	8	6	5	4	4	2	2	1	1
		9	-	2	-	2	No			33		33
9	.5	9	-	3	-	1	1.5		2	9	6	9	5	6	6	6	5	4	3	3	2	3	1	1
9		9	-	4	-	0	0.7		0	4	3	4	3	2	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	3	-	2	No
8	.5	8	-	4	-	1	0.2			2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
8		8	-	5	-	0	0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		7	-	4	-	2	No
7	.5	7	-	5	-	1	No			0	0	0	0		0	0		0	0
7		7	-	6	-	0	0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		6	-	5	-	2	No
6	.5	6	-	6	-	1	No
6		6	-	7	-	0	0.0								0		0	0	0		0
		5	-	6	-	2	No
0	-5.5						No

Total:							0.1	%	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1

Games Above .500 (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 27	+1.9
Detroit 12 Denver 24	-0.1
Miami 14 Buffalo 41	+0.1
Seattle 26 Chicago 0	-0.1
Cleveland 20 Oakland 27	+0.1
Minnesota 31 San Diego 14	+0.1
New England 51 Jacksonville 17	+0.1
NY Jets 17 Philadelphia 24	+0.0
Carolina 27 New Orleans 22	-0.0
Arizona 47 San Francisco 7	-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.0*+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	+1.2-0.2-2.2
San Diego vs Cleveland	+0.1+0.2-0.1
Seattle vs Detroit	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.1+0.1+0.1
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Arizona vs St. Louis	-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Miami vs NY Jets	-0.1*+0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

13		13	-	0	-	0	57	13	26	0	1				2
12	.5	12	-	0	-	1	33	33	33
12		12	-	1	-	0	9	26	30	11	10	0	0		11	1	1		0
11	.5	11	-	1	-	1	18	30	18	9	7				18
11		11	-	2	-	0	0	7	9	21	20	7	2	0	19	7	8	0	1	0
		10	-	1	-	2			100
10	.5	10	-	2	-	1		4	4	17	17	10	3	0	23	10	9	0	2	0
10		10	-	3	-	0	0	0	0	5	6	15	5	1	7	14	23	5	13	3	0	0
		9	-	2	-	2										33	33		33
9	.5	9	-	3	-	1				2	2	10	5	2	4	12	26	8	21	7	1
9		9	-	4	-	0		0	0	0	0	4	2	4	0	4	5	12	22	26	15	5	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	3	-	2													50		50
8	.5	8	-	4	-	1						1	1	2		1	1	7	11	26	28	16	6	1	0
8		8	-	5	-	0				0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	6	15	21	22	16	10	4	1	0	0	0
		7	-	4	-	2															25	25	25			25
7	.5	7	-	5	-	1								0				0	0	0	1	5	13	22	26	19	10	3	1	0
7		7	-	6	-	0						0	0	0				0	0	0	0	0	2	6	12	17	20	18	13	7	3	1	0	0	0	0
		6	-	5	-	2																	6		29	29	12	18			6
6	.5	6	-	6	-	1																		0	0	2	6	14	23	25	17	8	3	1	0
6		6	-	7	-	0								0									0	0	0	0	1	4	9	16	21	21	16	9	4	1	0	0
		5	-	6	-	2																							13	20	13	20	20		13
5	.5	5	-	7	-	1																						0	0	2	5	14	24	27	18	8	2	0
5		5	-	8	-	0																						0	0	0	1	5	13	23	26	20	9	2
		4	-	7	-	2																								10			40	20	20	10
4	.5	4	-	8	-	1																									0	0	1	6	17	33	32	11
4		4	-	9	-	0																									0	0	0	2	10	26	38	24
		3	-	8	-	2																														13	63	25
3	.5	3	-	9	-	1																												0	1	9	35	55
3		3	-	10	-	0																											0	0	0	5	29	66
		2	-	9	-	2																																100
2	.5	2	-	10	-	1																														0	12	88
2		2	-	11	-	0																													0	0	9	91
		1	-	10	-	2																																100
1	.5	1	-	11	-	1																															3	97
1		1	-	12	-	0																															1	99
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7