SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances

Beat Miami 41-14, playoff odds up 26.2 to 51.1%

2-1-0 .667

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Super Bowl	100.0*	Average seed
Miami 14 Buffalo 41	+10.9		+0.7		+1.2
NY Jets 17 Philadelphia 24	+1.1		+0.1		+0.1
New England 51 Jacksonville 17	-0.5		-0.1
St. Louis 6 Pittsburgh 12	-0.5
Detroit 12 Denver 24	-0.4
Minnesota 31 San Diego 14	+0.4				+0.0
Tennessee 33 Indianapolis 35	+0.2				-0.0
Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 27	-0.1				+0.0
Houston 19 Tampa Bay 9	-0.1				-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.7*+1.8-1.1				+0.0*+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Super Bowl	100.0*	Average seed
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+6.4*-2.5-10.2		+0.7*-0.9-1.1		+0.5-0.1-0.8
Miami vs NY Jets	+1.5*+0.3-1.1		+0.2*+0.0-0.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.6*-0.8+1.1		-0.1*-0.9+0.1
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.8*-1.3-0.7		+0.0*-0.2-0.0		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.4*-1.2+0.6		-0.1*-0.4+0.1		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	+0.2*+0.4-0.3		-0.0*+0.2+0.1
Atlanta vs Houston	+0.2*+1.2-0.3				+0.0*+0.1-0.0
San Diego vs Cleveland	-0.1*+0.6+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Buffalo finishes out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

15		13	-	0	-	0	In		99	1			0												2,848
14	.5	12	-	0	-	1	In		100																15
14		12	-	1	-	0	In		95	3	0		2												25,575
13	.5	11	-	1	-	1	In		87	9			4												234
13		11	-	2	-	0	In		79	13	0		7	0											131,261
		10	-	1	-	2	In			100															1
12	.5	10	-	2	-	1	In		71	19	1		10												1,061
12		10	-	3	-	0	100.0	%	46	27	3	0	23	1	0										407,437
		9	-	2	-	2	In		50				50												2
11	.5	9	-	3	-	1	In		29	32	7	0	30	1											2,997
11		9	-	4	-	0	99.5		13	25	11	1	42	8	0	0	0								854,995
		8	-	3	-	2	In		10	10	20		50	10											10
10	.5	8	-	4	-	1	98.4		4	17	14	2	46	15	2	0									5,681
10		8	-	5	-	0	89.8		1	7	10	3	37	31	9	1	0	0							1,278,670
		7	-	4	-	2	In			11	11		56	22											9
9	.5	7	-	5	-	1	74.2		0	1	6	5	23	39	21	4	0	0							7,299
9		7	-	6	-	0	44.9		0	0	2	3	10	29	32	18	5	1	0	0	0				1,400,899
		6	-	5	-	2	23.1						23		46	15	15								13
8	.5	6	-	6	-	1	14.4			0	0	1	1	11	31	34	16	4	0	0					7,168
8		6	-	7	-	0	5.0			0	0	1	0	4	15	28	28	17	6	2	0	0	0		1,144,226
		5	-	6	-	2	Out								21	11	26	37	5						19
7	.5	5	-	7	-	1	0.1					0		0	2	9	25	33	22	8	1	0			4,810
7		5	-	8	-	0	0.1					0	0	0	0	3	12	24	28	20	9	3	0	0	692,574
		4	-	7	-	2	Out											25	25	50					4
6	.5	4	-	8	-	1	Out									0	1	6	18	31	27	13	3	0	2,387
6		4	-	9	-	0	0.0					0				0	0	2	9	22	30	24	10	2	308,215
		3	-	8	-	2	Out													50	33	17			6
5	.5	3	-	9	-	1	Out											0	1	5	20	36	30	8	887
5		3	-	10	-	0	Out										0	0	0	2	11	29	38	19	97,907
4	.5	2	-	10	-	1	Out														1	16	43	40	217
4		2	-	11	-	0	Out													0	1	7	35	57	20,812
3	.5	1	-	11	-	1	Out																15	85	33
3		1	-	12	-	0	Out															0	12	87	2,804
2	.5	0	-	12	-	1	Out																	100	2
2		0	-	13	-	0	Out																3	97	666

Total:							51.1	%	7	7	4	2	17	14	12	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	6,401,744

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Buffalo finishes out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TW		W	-	L	-	T	Win SB		Bye	Denver	New England	Cincinnati	NY Jets	Pittsburgh	Tennessee	Houston	Oakland	Kansas City	Indianapolis	San Diego	Jacksonville	Cleveland	Miami	Baltimore

15		13	-	0	-	0	17.0	%	100							0					0
14	.5	12	-	0	-	1	20.0		Yes
14		12	-	1	-	0	17.6		98	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
13	.5	11	-	1	-	1	17.9		96	0					1	1			0		0			0
13		11	-	2	-	0	16.6		92	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0
		10	-	1	-	2	No		Yes
12	.5	10	-	2	-	1	15.6		89	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0
12		10	-	3	-	0	13.9		73	2	1	2	1	1	6	5	1	1	4	1	2	0	0	0
		9	-	2	-	2	No		50						50
11	.5	9	-	3	-	1	12.1		61	2	1	3	1	2	9	7	1	1	5	1	3	1	0	1
11		9	-	4	-	0	9.5		38	5	4	5	3	4	12	9	3	2	8	1	5	1	0	1
		8	-	3	-	2	20.0		20	20	10		10		10	20			10
10	.5	8	-	4	-	1	7.1		21	7	6	7	3	6	14	10	4	3	8	3	5	1	1	1
10		8	-	5	-	0	5.5		8	9	7	9	4	7	12	9	4	3	7	2	4	2	1	1
		7	-	4	-	2	11.1		11	22			22		22	11					11
9	.5	7	-	5	-	1	4.5		1	9	7	9	4	7	9	7	4	3	5	2	3	2	1	1
9		7	-	6	-	0	2.3		0	6	5	6	3	4	5	4	2	2	3	1	2	1	0	0
		6	-	5	-	2	No							8	8	8
8	.5	6	-	6	-	1	0.7		0	2	2	2	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
8		6	-	7	-	0	0.2		0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		5	-	6	-	2	No
7	.5	5	-	7	-	1	No			0				0		0				0
7		5	-	8	-	0	0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		4	-	7	-	2	No
6	.5	4	-	8	-	1	No
6		4	-	9	-	0	No										0
		3	-	8	-	2	No
2	-5.5						No

Total:							4.2	%	13.7	4.2	3.2	3.9	1.9	3.1	5.8	4.2	1.8	1.4	3.3	1.0	2.0	0.7	0.3	0.4

Games Above .500 (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
Miami 14 Buffalo 41	-2.2
Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 27	-0.1
Dallas 28 Atlanta 39	+0.1
Houston 19 Tampa Bay 9	-0.1
Minnesota 31 San Diego 14	-0.0
Arizona 47 San Francisco 7	-0.0
Carolina 27 New Orleans 22	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-1.2+0.3+1.9
Miami vs NY Jets	-0.2*+0.1+0.1
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	*+0.0-0.2-0.0
Chicago vs Oakland	-0.1*+0.1+0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Atlanta vs Houston	+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.0*+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15		13	-	0	-	0	97	2	1						0
14	.5	12	-	0	-	1	80	20
14		12	-	1	-	0	83	12	3	0	0				2
13	.5	11	-	1	-	1	72	15	9						4
13		11	-	2	-	0	50	29	13	1	0				7	0	0
		10	-	1	-	2			100
12	.5	10	-	2	-	1	39	31	17	1	1				10
12		10	-	3	-	0	14	32	20	6	3	0	0		22	1	1		0
		9	-	2	-	2	50								50
11	.5	9	-	3	-	1	6	24	23	9	7	0	0		29	2	1
11		9	-	4	-	0	1	12	9	15	9	2	1	0	33	9	8	0	0	0
		8	-	3	-	2		10		10	20				30	20	10
10	.5	8	-	4	-	1	0	4	4	14	10	4	2	0	32	14	15	0	2	0
10		8	-	5	-	0	0	1	1	6	4	6	3	1	17	20	27	4	9	1	0	0
		7	-	4	-	2				11	11				56		11	11
9	.5	7	-	5	-	1		0	0	1	1	5	3	2	6	17	29	9	20	5	1	0
9		7	-	6	-	0		0	0	0	0	2	1	2	1	9	14	15	28	18	7	2	0	0	0	0
		6	-	5	-	2									8	15			38	23	15
8	.5	6	-	6	-	1				0		0	0	1	0	1	1	10	15	29	25	12	4	1	0
8		6	-	7	-	0				0		0	0	1	0	0	0	4	5	13	21	22	17	10	5	2	1	0	0	0	0
		5	-	6	-	2														16	32	26	5	5	16
7	.5	5	-	7	-	1								0				0		0	2	6	15	23	23	18	9	3	1	0
7		5	-	8	-	0								0		0		0	0	0	0	1	5	10	17	20	18	14	8	4	2	0	0	0	0
		4	-	7	-	2																25				75
6	.5	4	-	8	-	1																		0	1	2	6	17	23	24	17	7	2	0	0
6		4	-	9	-	0								0									0	0	0	1	2	6	13	19	21	18	11	6	2	0	0	0
		3	-	8	-	2																							17	33	17	33
5	.5	3	-	9	-	1																						0	0	2	7	16	25	25	18	6	1	0
5		3	-	10	-	0																						0	0	1	2	8	16	25	24	16	6	1
4	.5	2	-	10	-	1																										0	0	8	23	34	28	6
4		2	-	11	-	0																										0	1	3	13	29	35	19
3	.5	1	-	11	-	1																													3	6	36	55
3		1	-	12	-	0																												0	0	6	32	62
2	.5	0	-	12	-	1																																100
2		0	-	13	-	0																														1	11	88

Total:							2	5	3	4	2	2	1	1	10	7	10	5	9	7	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0