San Francisco 49ers Playoff Chances

Beating Arizona 32-20 (2:09 4th Qtr), playoff odds down 10.4 to 45.4%
3-2-0   .600

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/10100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Baltimore 17 Green Bay 19 -1.3
-0.1
-0.1
Cleveland 17 Detroit 31 -1.2
-0.1
Chicago 27 NY Giants 21 -0.6
-0.0
Minnesota 10 Carolina 35 -0.5
Seattle 20 Tennessee 13 -0.5
-0.1
-0.1
Tampa Bay 20 Philadelphia 31 -0.5
Houston 13 St. Louis 38 -0.4
New England 30 New Orleans 27 +0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs Arizona+10.3-5.4-16.3
+0.4*-0.1-0.7
+0.7-0.3-1.1
Dallas vs Washington-0.2*-0.1+0.4
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/17100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Tennessee vs San Francisco-8.1*-0.7+10.7
-0.4*-0.2+0.5
-0.5+0.1+0.7
Green Bay vs Cleveland-1.0*-0.3+1.8
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Washington vs Chicago+1.4*-0.2-1.3
Arizona vs Seattle-1.6*-0.9+1.0
+0.2*-0.2-0.1
Detroit vs Cincinnati-0.9*-0.5+1.3
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Carolina vs St. Louis-0.5+1.4+1.2
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay-0.1*-0.5+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well San Francisco finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1411-0-0In10003,545
13.510-0-1In9334287
1310-1-0In81601232,979
9-0-2In89119
12.59-1-1In60141252,514
129-2-0100.0%4020203800151,286
8-1-2In442013687
11.58-2-1100.0172160551010,534
7-1-3In3333333
118-3-099.87168163500410,567
7-2-2In81470664283
10.57-3-197.8169162192024,898
6-2-3In1005
107-4-091.4026251318100726,710
6-3-290.80352513081699
9.56-4-167.8002123412571037,870
5-3-372.799552711
96-5-042.7001111313418500886,178
5-4-240.2011029401640841
8.55-5-111.800011030361930039,499
4-4-320.02040301010
85-6-03.10003132933174100752,979
4-5-21.521233331641711
7.54-6-10.102123334163027,667
3-5-3Out50504
74-7-00.0000313303317400449,366
3-6-2Out021328331851391
6.53-7-1Out03153533122013,143
2-6-3Out1001
63-8-0Out0041735311110183,369
2-7-2Out1213828111145
5.52-8-1Out06254223303,993
52-9-0Out019324115148,987
1-8-2Out815621526
4.51-9-1Out021947293722
41-10-0Out073346137,671
0-9-2Out1001
3.50-10-1Out320463159
30-11-0Out184546830
Total:45.4%3321211513111086431003,818,880

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well San Francisco finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeSeattleNew OrleansDetroitGreen BayDallasPhiladelphiaChicagoCarolinaArizonaWashingtonSt. LouisAtlantaMinnesotaNY GiantsTampa Bay
1411-0-010.0%10000
13.510-0-17.39601210
1310-1-09.18801114401010000
9-0-211.18911
12.59-1-18.775031178110200
129-2-06.86003221312220300000
8-1-24.663155147113
11.58-2-15.03725441818331500000
7-1-3No333333
118-3-04.12336552121441500000
7-2-24.923274426195550
10.57-3-12.9779872120551600000
6-2-3No20204020
107-4-02.32810981818652510000
6-3-21.1389891618571510
9.56-4-11.50710981010641200000
5-3-39.1279279
96-5-00.90567566421100000
5-4-20.4666456420100
8.55-5-10.3012221110000000
4-4-3No1010
85-6-00.1011000000000000
4-5-2No0010000
7.54-6-1No00000000
3-5-3No
74-7-0No000000000
3-6-2No
3-6.5No
Total:1.5%6.43.14.44.23.68.07.82.72.10.62.00.20.20.10.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/10100.0*Lottery seed
Seattle 20 Tennessee 13 +0.1
Tampa Bay 20 Philadelphia 31 +0.1
Chicago 27 NY Giants 21 +0.0
Cleveland 17 Detroit 31 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs Arizona-1.3+0.5+2.0
San Diego vs Indianapolis+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Dallas vs Washington+0.0*+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/17100.0*Lottery seed
Tennessee vs San Francisco+1.3-0.2-1.7
Arizona vs Seattle-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Washington vs Chicago-0.1+0.1+0.1
Jacksonville vs San Diego-0.1-0.0+0.1
Detroit vs Cincinnati+0.0+0.1-0.0
Carolina vs St. Louis+0.0-0.1-0.1
Kansas City vs Houston+0.0-0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs New England+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1411-0-0505000
13.510-0-13854331
1310-1-011705100103
9-0-2226711
12.59-1-165411410196
129-2-01399112001720000
8-1-24481112016
11.58-2-10177145102232100
7-1-3333333
118-3-007214440012515000
7-2-2821225013534
10.57-3-1106361085417220
6-2-3100
107-4-0002151134821107100
6-3-203142124822872
9.56-4-10002010231923228100
5-3-399183627
96-5-000010101182320211141000
5-4-200101082125211041
8.55-5-10000101082228198200
4-4-310101020202010
85-6-000000317162222168310000
4-5-2226182521158300
7.54-6-1000161524251882000
3-5-3255025
74-7-00000013816212116941000
3-6-201371720211511311
6.53-7-10026142526177200
2-6-3100
63-8-0001391723221572000
2-7-213210162621138
5.52-8-1000310233122920
52-9-00002716262716510
1-8-24415313584
4.51-9-10031431341431
41-10-0013122935183
0-9-2100
3.50-10-1224322220
30-11-004214530
Total:031212003197877665443322211100000