San Francisco 49ers Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.3 to 36.1%
1-1-0   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Atlanta 56 Tampa Bay 14 -0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Arizona vs San Francisco-9.5+2.4+14.2
-0.8*+0.0+1.2
-1.0+0.3+1.4
Seattle vs Denver-1.0*+0.5+1.3
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
NY Jets vs Chicago+0.5*+0.1-0.6
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Carolina vs Pittsburgh-0.3*+0.4+0.6
-0.0*-0.1+0.1
New Orleans vs Minnesota+0.2*-0.7-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs Dallas-0.2*-0.4+0.2
NY Giants vs Houston-0.1*+1.2+0.1
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Green Bay-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Philadelphia vs Washington+0.1*+0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
San Francisco vs Philadelphia+8.9*-0.0-10.3
+0.7*+0.1-0.8
+1.0-0.0-1.1
Baltimore vs Carolina+0.4*-0.1-0.5
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Detroit+0.4*+0.0-0.5
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Washington vs NY Giants-0.2*+0.4+0.5
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Atlanta+0.1*+0.6-0.1
+0.0*-0.3-0.0
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Green Bay-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Dallas vs New Orleans-0.0*-0.8+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well San Francisco finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1514-0-0In10004,857
14.513-0-1In97331
1413-1-0In9820032,823
13.512-1-1In9541342
1312-2-0In88110010212,157
11-1-2In1001
12.511-2-1In8216021,983
1211-3-0100.0%613040500830,732
10-2-2In6711229
11.510-3-1In4835701007,209
1110-4-099.92338193162002,224,768
9-3-2In26262651619
10.59-4-199.79292552650017,581
109-5-096.12142514261630004,308,616
8-4-296.731538121513360
9.58-5-187.704171624281120030,458
98-6-057.30171610242413410006,213,511
7-5-259.29149262511576
8.57-6-125.3019213282814400038,610
87-7-08.80050312232619820006,786,190
6-6-210.373930251592116
7.56-7-11.1010029233123920037,220
76-8-00.40000028192824134005,641,871
5-7-2Out2823282213593
6.55-8-10.00015173229132026,073
65-9-00.00000171931281223,549,623
4-8-2Out242542159455
5.54-9-1Out016213927613,538
54-10-0Out0002113140171,659,543
3-9-2Out33023301330
4.53-10-1Out0021846345,213
43-11-0Out00194050563,136
2-10-2Out1004
3.52-11-1Out331661,289
32-12-0Out012079130,504
1-11-2Out1001
2.51-12-1Out1090176
21-13-0Out069418,535
1.50-13-1Out1009
10-14-0Out1993,706
Total:36.1%466678888877654232,360,768

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well San Francisco finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeCarolinaAtlantaArizonaPhiladelphiaWashingtonSeattleChicagoMinnesotaDetroitDallasGreen BaySt. LouisNew OrleansNY GiantsTampa Bay
14.5-1513.9%Yes
1413-1-013.51000000000
13.512-1-114.39900
1312-2-013.699000000000000000
11-1-2NoYes
12.511-2-112.398000000000000
1211-3-012.491111110111110000
10-2-211.1781111
11.510-3-111.483221221112110000
1110-4-09.261444442333321110
9-3-25.353555551155
10.59-4-17.339666763555531210
109-5-05.116889875666642210
8-4-23.31878383871073553
9.58-5-13.94989985666642210
98-6-02.21666664444431210
7-5-23.944314114817111
8.57-6-10.90332331222210100
87-7-00.30111110111100000
6-6-2No11213111
7.56-7-10.0000000000000000
76-8-00.0000000000000000
5-7-2No
6.55-8-1No00000
65-9-00.000000000000
4-8-2No
1-5.5No
Total:2.2%9.72.72.72.72.92.61.72.02.01.92.01.30.60.80.40.1
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
Arizona vs San Francisco+1.8-0.6-2.8
NY Giants vs Houston-0.0-0.2+0.0
New Orleans vs Minnesota-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Miami vs Kansas City+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Denver+0.1*-0.1-0.1
New England vs Oakland+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Buffalo vs San Diego+0.0*+0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
San Francisco vs Philadelphia-1.9-0.0+2.2
Oakland vs Miami-0.1-0.1+0.1
San Diego vs Jacksonville-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Kansas City vs New England-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Green Bay-0.0+0.1+0.1
Washington vs NY Giants+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Baltimore vs Carolina-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1514-0-09900
14.513-0-19433
1413-1-09262000
13.512-1-189641
1312-2-0692010000010
11-1-2100
12.511-2-1592315002
1211-3-028332644004000
10-2-211561122
11.510-3-11533287700900
1110-4-03191920163301422000
9-3-25211611215516
10.59-4-109920196502165000
109-5-0022121015113131213230000
8-4-232132513838712222
9.58-5-100431411571721710200
98-6-00011661018101515148310000
7-5-2185918720121874
8.57-6-10012702112102122145200
87-7-00000400032511151716127310000
6-6-273816201311133511
7.56-7-1001000028162323157200
76-8-000000000013712161917137310000
5-7-2138151724141062
6.55-8-1000138182423156200
65-9-0000000149162121158200
4-8-224161116241655
5.54-9-1013102228221120
54-10-0000028172726154
3-9-217103327103
4.53-10-101417333211
43-11-000017224030
2-10-27525
3.52-11-1294049
32-12-00042670
1-11-2100
2.51-12-111188
21-13-00892
1.50-13-1100
10-14-0199
Total:23233333344444444444444333332221