Arizona Cardinals Playoff Chances

Losing to San Francisco 20-32 (2:09 4th Qtr), playoff odds down 8.4 to 30.3%
3-2-0   .600

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/10100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Cleveland 17 Detroit 31 -1.4
-0.0
-0.1
Baltimore 17 Green Bay 19 -1.1
-0.1
Chicago 27 NY Giants 21 -0.7
-0.0
Houston 13 St. Louis 38 -0.6
-0.1
Tampa Bay 20 Philadelphia 31 -0.5
Seattle 20 Tennessee 13 -0.5
-0.0
-0.1
Minnesota 10 Carolina 35 -0.4
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs Arizona-10.0+1.6+15.9
-0.2*-0.0+0.4
-0.7+0.2+1.1
Dallas vs Washington-0.1*+0.1+0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/17100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Arizona vs Seattle+13.7+1.7-8.5
+0.4*-0.1-0.3
+1.1+0.2-0.7
Tennessee vs San Francisco+1.3*+0.3-1.7
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Detroit vs Cincinnati-1.1*-0.7+1.6
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Washington vs Chicago+1.2*+0.6-1.1
Green Bay vs Cleveland-0.6*+0.4+1.1
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Carolina vs St. Louis-0.3*+0.4+0.8
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay-0.1*-0.1+0.2
NY Giants vs Minnesota+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Philadelphia vs Dallas+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Arizona finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1411-0-0In93701,135
13.510-0-1In93790
1310-1-0In72201711,672
9-0-2In67333
12.59-1-1In63241111,053
129-2-0100.0%343360270069,197
8-1-2In174692935
11.58-2-1100.01927942205,509
118-3-099.561913154810240,479
7-2-299.451813152101165
10.57-3-196.918121542130016,623
6-2-3In75254
107-4-087.00272433311200541,701
6-3-285.537244301220503
9.56-4-162.8002120402881031,779
5-3-342.91429577
96-5-035.9000182736216100825,905
5-4-237.1011927352251834
8.55-5-19.9001928372040041,188
4-4-310.01030253520
85-6-02.30002132932185100875,775
4-5-22.2021229361740815
7.54-6-10.1002113235163035,562
3-5-3Out1733506
74-7-00.000416323114300643,913
3-6-2Out13203031122569
6.53-7-1Out03163533121020,572
2-6-3Out60405
63-8-0Out0017243725600320,132
2-7-2Out152336277249
5.52-8-1Out017284220207,408
1-7-3Out50504
52-9-0Out00318413160102,897
1-8-2Out3135132263
4.51-9-1Out0327472021,591
0-8-3Out1001
41-10-0Out02194926319,396
0-9-2Out1471147
3.50-10-1Out2314818131
30-11-0Out32951181,882
Total:30.3%12211212131312119642003,818,880

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Arizona finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeSeattleNew OrleansDetroitGreen BayDallasPhiladelphiaSan FranciscoChicagoCarolinaWashingtonSt. LouisAtlantaMinnesotaNY GiantsTampa Bay
1411-0-05.8%1000
13.510-0-15.6Yes
1310-1-06.4920000320001000
9-0-2NoYes
12.59-1-16.2870010440102
129-2-04.8671222108122300000
8-1-22.96363911333
11.58-2-13.7473334151313350000
118-3-02.62555652017244600000
7-2-22.42445872013172711
10.57-3-11.7978882018265500000
6-2-3No255025
107-4-01.3289981715265510000
6-3-22.238116917131775
9.56-4-10.80799798163200000
5-3-3No1429
96-5-00.50455554131100000
5-4-20.505565440411000
8.55-5-10.112211101000000
4-4-3No55
85-6-00.000000000000000
4-5-2No1000000
7.54-6-1No00000000
3-5-3No
74-7-00.000000000
3-6-2No
3-6.5No
Total:0.6%3.52.63.03.12.75.14.60.62.01.41.40.20.10.10.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/10100.0*Lottery seed
New England 30 New Orleans 27 +0.1
Chicago 27 NY Giants 21 +0.0
Houston 13 St. Louis 38 -0.0
Seattle 20 Tennessee 13 +0.0
Kansas City 24 Oakland 7 -0.0
Cleveland 17 Detroit 31 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs Arizona+1.3-0.1-2.1
San Diego vs Indianapolis+0.1-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/17100.0*Lottery seed
Arizona vs Seattle-2.1-0.1+1.3
Jacksonville vs San Diego-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Dallas-0.1-0.0+0.1
Detroit vs Cincinnati-0.0+0.1+0.0
Carolina vs St. Louis+0.0+0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs New England+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1411-0-0524170
13.510-0-144497
1310-1-011611641062
9-0-26733
12.59-1-1756177183
129-2-013315185100121500
8-1-21726209209
11.58-2-10191017821824200
118-3-006316761010447010
7-2-253159411339101
10.57-3-11075710847192300
6-2-37525
107-4-000216112412211121000
6-3-2316112421812131
9.56-4-10002110191821251020
5-3-3142957
96-5-00000001086203122920000
5-4-20010096213221820
8.55-5-1000109823292082000
4-4-31035301015
85-6-000000231121242011520000
4-5-200231118252212420
7.54-6-10000161524261782000
3-5-3335017
74-7-00000251320231911520000
3-6-21261319241812421
6.53-7-100026152526177200
2-6-320204020
63-8-00002613212318114100
2-7-208112020191542
5.52-8-1001311232922920
1-7-3252550
52-9-0000141121272211300
1-8-26324302485
4.51-9-1014173330142
0-8-3100
41-10-0016193329102
0-9-27129
3.50-10-122434319
30-11-0019304019
Total:011211001115798776555433222111000