New Orleans Saints Playoff Chances

Lost to New England 27-30, playoff odds down 4.9 to 93%
5-1-0   .833

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/10100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England 30 New Orleans 27 -2.2
-1.1
-0.3
Minnesota 10 Carolina 35 -0.3
-0.2
Cleveland 17 Detroit 31 -0.2
-0.1
Baltimore 17 Green Bay 19 -0.1
-0.2
Seattle 20 Tennessee 13 -0.1
-0.3
-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs Arizona-0.1*-0.2+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/17100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Carolina vs St. Louis-0.5*+0.2+1.1
-0.2*+0.4+0.5
-0.1+0.1+0.2
Tennessee vs San Francisco+0.3*+0.0-0.4
Washington vs Chicago+0.3*-0.1-0.3
+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Detroit vs Cincinnati-0.2*+0.2+0.4
-0.2*-0.3+0.3
Arizona vs Seattle-0.4*-0.0+0.2
+0.5*-0.3-0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.0
Green Bay vs Cleveland-0.2*+0.3+0.3
-0.1*-0.4+0.2
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay-0.1*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well New Orleans finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-15In10029,928*
149-1-0In9640182,605
8-0-2In98258
13.58-1-1In928010,924
7-0-3In1001
138-2-0In792100526,926
7-1-2In8218268
12.57-2-1In64332027,791
6-1-3In75258
127-3-0100.0%454660200878,112
6-2-2In474751632
11.56-3-1100.0245320030039,815
5-2-3In115622119
116-4-0100.0124529210100937,169
5-3-2In144827191838
10.55-4-199.42264951251035,914
4-3-3In56449
105-5-096.511241131712300666,691
4-4-296.301241111814310564
9.54-5-182.70232199191340021,063
3-4-375.0252525254
94-6-062.80014226202212300320,946
3-5-266.4014251018201030271
2-4-4In1001
8.53-6-130.6618162229163008,100
2-5-333.33333333
83-7-015.101110311262815400103,488
2-6-217.3211129272816281
7.52-7-15.0050211283317501,907
72-8-01.802003143032154021,434
1-7-2Out2550254
6.51-8-10.712153432151275
61-9-00.1004203730912,582
0-8-2Out50502
5.50-9-1Out1121373219
50-10-0Out02103341140438
Total:93.0%31281857432110000003,818,880

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well New Orleans finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeSeattleDetroitGreen BayDallasPhiladelphiaSan FranciscoChicagoCarolinaArizonaWashingtonSt. LouisAtlantaMinnesotaNY GiantsTampa Bay
14.5-1520.2%Yes
149-1-019.71000000
8-0-217.2Yes
13.58-1-119.61000000
7-0-3YesYes
138-2-019.21000000000000000
7-1-218.7Yes
12.57-2-118.3970000000100000
6-1-312.5Yes
127-3-017.492011111111000000
6-2-217.494011111110
11.56-3-115.777033223342010000
5-2-3No67111111
116-4-013.558155445474111000
5-3-212.66214534446411000
10.55-4-110.7283886697127221000
4-3-311.15611111111
105-5-08.813410987108157221000
4-4-26.6123997812101463220
9.54-5-16.62410965118147121000
3-4-3No252525
94-6-04.8048754106115121000
3-5-23.0035846117126122
2-4-4NoYes
8.53-6-12.224321733301000
2-5-3No33
83-7-01.20122114112010000
2-6-2No129211
7.52-7-10.510002010
72-8-00.10000010000
1-7-2No
6.51-8-1No00
61-9-0No00
0-8-2No
5-5.5No
Total:13.5%59.01.43.93.73.13.14.43.45.63.00.91.00.50.20.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/10100.0*Lottery seed
New England 30 New Orleans 27 +0.7
Minnesota 10 Carolina 35 +0.1
Seattle 20 Tennessee 13 +0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Dallas vs Washington+0.0-0.1-0.0
San Diego vs Indianapolis-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/17100.0*Lottery seed
Carolina vs St. Louis+0.1-0.2-0.3
Arizona vs Seattle-0.1-0.1+0.1
Detroit vs Cincinnati+0.0+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Dallas+0.0-0.1-0.0
Green Bay vs Cleveland+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1510-0-08911
14.59-0-18020
149-1-06036400
8-0-262362
13.58-1-14052700
7-0-3100
138-2-022571830000
7-1-22260161
12.57-2-17582582000
6-1-3751313
127-3-034328196001100
6-2-22453018510
11.56-3-1023183516401200
5-2-31133222211
116-4-0012113420920371000
5-3-2014123618913610
10.55-4-121241930412114010
4-3-311441133
105-5-0101212291032161023100
4-4-2011112298321612221
9.54-5-10022319100991011510
3-4-325252525
94-6-0001149130681211139310000
3-5-2011310151071012105420
2-4-4100
8.53-6-10621610651622167200
2-5-3333333
83-7-000111000214101720171041000
2-6-2211121171221121062
7.52-7-100500141120251810410
72-8-00200002511182219136200
1-7-2255025
6.51-8-112142321241140
61-9-000251320242011410
0-8-25050
5.50-9-155262616165
50-10-0141625272151
Total:7231216993215322111110000000000000