Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 66.9%
2-1-0   .667

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Atlanta 56 Tampa Bay 14 +8.0
+0.4
+1.0
Carolina 19 Pittsburgh 37 +2.2
+0.5
+0.2
Seattle 26 Denver 20 -0.5
NY Jets 19 Chicago 27 -0.3
-0.1
New Orleans 20 Minnesota 9 -0.2
NY Giants 30 Houston 17 -0.2
St. Louis 31 Dallas 34 -0.2
-0.0
Arizona 23 San Francisco 14 +0.1
Detroit 19 Green Bay 7 -0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Minnesota vs Atlanta-9.6-3.0+8.7
-1.5*-0.2+1.4
-0.9-0.3+0.9
Baltimore vs Carolina+1.5*-1.9-2.3
+0.2*-0.1-0.3
+0.1-0.1-0.2
Dallas vs New Orleans+0.7*-1.2-0.9
+0.0*+0.2-0.1
+0.0*-0.1-0.1
NY Jets vs Detroit+0.4*-0.2-0.4
+0.1*-1.5-0.1
+0.0-0.1-0.0
Washington vs NY Giants-0.2*+1.0+0.3
-0.0*-0.6+0.1
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Green Bay-0.2*+1.3+0.3
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay+0.1*-0.7-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
San Francisco vs Philadelphia+0.1*-0.3-0.1
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Atlanta finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-15In1003,284*
1412-1-0In9810029,168
13.511-1-1In9460247
1311-2-0In919000139,079
12.510-2-1In7821101,135
1210-3-0In66293020405,289
9-2-2In75254
11.59-3-1In4045111402,859
8-2-3In1001
119-4-0100.0%28431937100793,074
8-3-2In9739911
10.58-4-199.9733351111205,034
108-5-098.6320341816710001,121,108
7-4-2In28173317618
9.57-5-192.004243413177106,436
97-6-076.1021333101915720001,166,419
6-5-260.01010101020202010
8.56-6-141.30228192222113005,953
86-7-024.60119151423211241000906,503
5-6-216.7178258251712
7.55-7-18.080182128229203,799
75-8-04.3040003112327209200524,942
4-7-2Out4040205
6.54-8-11.011519292914301,846
64-9-00.400002922312591224,705
3-8-2Out5025254
5.53-9-1Out151838317608
53-10-00.0000021231381668,496
2-9-2Out1001
4.52-10-1Out1164340138
42-11-0Out018375414,299
3.51-11-1Out168419
31-12-0Out0115841,841
20-13-0Out595533
Total:66.9%131313157766544322105,426,880

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Atlanta finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeArizonaPhiladelphiaDetroitChicagoSeattleCarolinaDallasWashingtonNew OrleansMinnesotaSan FranciscoNY GiantsGreen BaySt. LouisTampa Bay
14.5-1518.8%Yes
1412-1-018.4100000
13.511-1-121.11000
1311-2-018.110000000000000000
12.510-2-117.299000000000
1210-3-017.295001100000000000
9-2-225.0Yes
11.59-3-115.185112211111110000
8-2-3YesYes
119-4-013.870323333322211110
8-3-218.28299
10.58-4-110.340556567554332110
108-5-08.724778778666432210
7-4-2No286611111161166
9.57-5-16.04899999866442210
97-6-04.92878888665432210
6-5-2No101010101010
8.56-6-12.70554452441221110
86-7-01.60333331221111100
5-6-2No88
7.55-7-10.71111111000000
75-8-00.3001110000000000
4-7-2No
6.54-8-1No00000000
64-9-00.0000000000000
3-8-2No
5.53-9-1No
53-10-0No0000
2-9-2No
2-4.5No
Total:7.1%25.84.03.94.24.24.34.03.63.32.62.11.81.01.00.80.1
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
Atlanta 56 Tampa Bay 14 -1.9
Carolina 19 Pittsburgh 37 -0.3
Arizona 23 San Francisco 14 -0.0
Cincinnati 33 Tennessee 7 -0.0
NY Giants 30 Houston 17 -0.0
St. Louis 31 Dallas 34 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Atlanta+1.9+0.3-1.7
Baltimore vs Carolina-0.2*+0.2+0.3
Houston vs Buffalo-0.0-0.2+0.0
Dallas vs New Orleans-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Washington vs NY Giants+0.0*-0.2-0.1
San Francisco vs Philadelphia-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Chicago vs Green Bay+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Oakland vs Miami-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1513-0-0991
14.512-0-1100
1412-1-09361000
13.511-1-185960
1311-2-0721890000
12.510-2-1542420010
1210-3-03433253300200
9-2-27525
11.59-3-1132735101101400
8-2-3100
119-4-052325181723071100
8-3-29185599
10.58-4-106102328811092200
108-5-003417181516297711000
7-4-2171161133176
9.57-5-1004519259310125620
97-6-000221118151891098521000
6-5-21010101020102010
8.56-6-100272111971518124100
86-7-00013150104251014141395210000
5-6-21717172525
7.55-7-10800026152122157300
75-8-00040000001481316171511631000
4-7-2202060
6.54-8-11003919272113510
64-9-0000012612182119136200
3-8-25050
5.53-9-101312262919820
53-10-000001410212824112
2-9-2100
4.52-10-1272334259
42-11-000029263924
3.51-11-153263
31-12-00162964
20-13-01990
Total:67777687333323333222222211111000