Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 36.3%
1-1-0   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Atlanta vs New Orleans+8.9-3.0-12.5
+0.7*-0.3-1.0
+1.0-0.2-1.3
Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh-1.0*+0.5+1.6
-0.1*+0.1+0.2
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Carolina vs Cincinnati-1.0*-0.7+1.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Minnesota vs Buffalo-0.4*+0.0+0.8
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Chicago+0.6*-0.4-0.5
+0.1*+0.3-0.0
Kansas City vs San Francisco+0.4*+0.2-0.6
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Indianapolis-0.4*+0.4+0.5
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
LA Rams vs LA Chargers-0.2*+0.4+0.3
-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Washington vs Green Bay+0.2*-0.1-0.2
Houston vs NY Giants+0.2*-0.8-0.2
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Detroit vs New England-0.2*-0.1+0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Atlanta vs Cincinnati+7.5-1.3-8.4
+0.6*-0.0-0.7
+0.8-0.1-0.9
NY Giants vs New Orleans+0.6*+0.3-0.7
+0.0*+0.2-0.1
Green Bay vs Buffalo-0.5*+0.1+0.8
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
LA Chargers vs San Francisco+0.4*-0.1-0.6
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Tennessee vs Philadelphia+0.4*+0.5-0.5
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Tampa Bay+0.4*-0.2-0.5
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Arizona vs Seattle+0.3*+0.4-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
LA Rams vs Minnesota+0.2*-0.1-0.4
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Dallas vs Detroit-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Atlanta finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1514-0-0In9915,629
14.513-0-1In10029
1413-1-0In9730032,140
12-0-2In1001
13.512-1-1In955356
1312-2-0In88110010218,419
11-1-2In1002
12.511-2-1In8117112,261
1211-3-0100.0%652830400911,096
10-2-2In75258
11.510-3-1In493660908,125
1110-4-0100.02840141161002,588,561
9-3-2In315510329
10.59-4-199.813332242530021,092
109-5-098.14192510291120005,312,140
8-4-296.0432593619475
9.58-5-191.81719142823710038,985
7-4-3In1001
98-6-069.7029161527208200008,111,016
7-5-272.1191818261981136
8.57-6-136.602105203023920052,284
6-5-3In1001
87-7-014.200161617262313510009,362,223
6-6-210.747182826116131
7.56-7-12.10101414262918610052,462
76-8-00.801001412222721103008,203,914
5-7-20.71169222719124138
6.55-8-10.100017203127122039,539
65-9-00.000000282030261225,432,608
4-8-2Out1410371720259
5.54-9-1Out016213629821,668
54-10-00.000002102839202,676,928
3-9-2Out4823422326
4.53-10-1Out021443428,424
43-11-0Out00173458948,719
2-10-2Out8425012
3.52-11-1Out0121782,106
32-12-0Out011386229,084
1-11-2Out1001
2.51-12-1Out595371
21-13-0Out039733,853
1.50-13-1Out10031
10-14-0Out01005,733
Total:36.3%466688888777665344,320,416

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Atlanta finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeLA RamsTampa BayMinnesotaWashingtonGreen BayChicagoDallasPhiladelphiaCarolinaSan FranciscoNew OrleansSeattleNY GiantsDetroitArizona
14.5-1514.3%Yes
1413-1-014.2100000000
12-0-2NoYes
13.512-1-113.8Yes
1312-2-014.099000000000000000
11-1-2NoYes
12.511-2-112.6980000000000000
1211-3-013.093101111110000000
10-2-2NoYes
11.510-3-112.085111211211101100
1110-4-010.268233333332211110
9-3-23.4863333
10.59-4-17.846555554553422211
109-5-06.023787766775533321
8-4-22.77711718157161445111
9.58-5-14.47889877885533321
7-4-3NoYes
98-6-02.92787666564422221
7-5-22.217899842104321311
8.57-6-11.30444433332211110
6-5-3NoYes
87-7-00.60112111111101000
6-6-2No1121222111
7.56-7-10.1000000000000000
76-8-00.0000000000000000
5-7-2No1
6.55-8-10.00000000
65-9-00.0000000000000
4-8-2No
5.54-9-1No
54-10-0No000
3-9-2No
1-4.5No
Total:2.3%9.62.52.82.72.62.32.22.32.41.51.70.90.90.90.60.3
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Cleveland 21 NY Jets 17 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Atlanta vs New Orleans-1.8+0.5+2.6
Carolina vs Cincinnati+0.1+0.1-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh+0.1-0.1-0.1
Arizona vs Chicago-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Baltimore vs Denver-0.0-0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Dallas+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Houston vs NY Giants+0.0*+0.1-0.1
LA Rams vs LA Chargers-0.0-0.1+0.0
Kansas City vs San Francisco-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Detroit vs New England+0.0+0.1-0.0
Jacksonville vs Tennessee-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Lottery seed
Atlanta vs Cincinnati-1.9+0.2+2.1
Arizona vs Seattle-0.1-0.1+0.1
NY Giants vs New Orleans-0.0-0.1+0.0
Oakland vs Cleveland+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Tennessee vs Philadelphia+0.0-0.1-0.0
Dallas vs Detroit-0.0*+0.1+0.0
New England vs Miami+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1514-0-09901
14.513-0-1100
1413-1-0934300
12-0-2100
13.512-1-19055
1312-2-0721611000100
11-1-25050
12.511-2-1621917011
1211-3-032332533004000
10-2-2383825
11.510-3-11732306600900
1110-4-04242019122101421000
9-3-2313421733
10.59-4-10131122175402053000
109-5-004217101582141410220000
8-4-241115115423131634
9.58-5-1107415958211767100
7-4-3100
98-6-00021961011491814105200000
7-5-21991031510171310131
8.57-6-1022905118918191251000
6-5-3100
87-7-000010601061511161815105210000
6-6-2472882415151071
7.56-7-100101000271523231683100
76-8-000100000013612171917137310000
5-7-2124920251415741
6.55-8-1000027152324178200
65-9-0000000149152121169310
4-8-273122222171052
5.54-9-100281827251440
54-10-00000026162628185
3-9-244435271512
4.53-10-100314313516
43-11-0000015194035
2-10-28175025
3.52-11-10163360
32-12-00032374
1-11-2100
2.51-12-11387
21-13-00694
1.50-13-1100
10-14-0199
Total:13242423353533344433444333333222