Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances

Lost to Cleveland 16-28, playoff odds down 15.1 to 12.5%
4-5-0   .444

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 11/8100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16 -10.4
-0.2
-0.8
LA Rams 36 Seattle 31 +1.5
+0.1
Pittsburgh 52 Carolina 21 +1.1
+0.0
+0.0
Green Bay 31 Miami 12 -0.6
-0.1
Tampa Bay 3 Washington 16 -0.4
Philadelphia 20 Dallas 27 +0.3
+0.0
Chicago 34 Detroit 22 -0.3
+0.0
Cincinnati 14 New Orleans 51 -0.3
-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/15100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Atlanta vs Dallas+7.1-2.5-7.8
+0.1-0.0-0.1
+0.9-0.3-1.0
Detroit vs Carolina+1.4-1.1-1.1
+0.0-0.2-0.0
Chicago vs Minnesota+0.4+0.4-1.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
New Orleans vs Philadelphia+0.2*-0.0-0.6
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Washington vs Houston-0.3-0.3+0.3
Seattle vs Green Bay+0.0-0.2-0.1
NY Giants vs Tampa Bay+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Atlanta finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
117-0-0100.0%119111670021,768,460
10.56-0-199.9024183100142,833
106-1-098.201317222200207,051,381
5-0-297.601175212416
9.55-1-186.3000394613101,151,916
4-0-3In1001
95-2-060.900001843327100817,695,254
4-1-262.201944316102,661
8.54-2-122.900320402881003,679,224
3-1-350.050502
84-3-05.8000526372371001,699,211,678
3-2-26.806253724716,437
7.53-3-10.300419363091005,918,000
2-2-3Out4329297
73-4-00.0001826372440001,999,581,459
2-3-20.0018263625407,658
6.52-4-1Out0042242265005,041,734
1-3-3Out2020605
62-5-0Out002143934111001,321,042,773
1-4-2Out011337351314,036
5.51-5-1Out019344114102,129,444
0-4-3Out1001
51-6-0Out000627412140446,003,905
0-5-2Out0423442430874
4.50-6-1Out0022244274338,630
40-7-0Out001113643957,712,795
Total:12.5%00005711131416161052106,588,491,584

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Atlanta finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeLA RamsNew OrleansChicagoWashingtonCarolinaMinnesotaSeattleGreen BayDallasPhiladelphiaDetroitTampa BaySan FranciscoNY GiantsArizona
117-0-01.6%21131134442181000000
10.56-0-10.92351542250111130000
106-1-00.914619373501101100000
5-0-20.7036193717210110
9.55-1-10.70682327260266000
4-0-3NoYes
95-2-00.5066191615013300000
4-1-20.56621161502330
8.54-2-10.23395010010000
3-1-3No50
84-3-00.0112100000000000
3-2-20.1113100000
7.53-3-10.0000000000
2-2-3No
73-4-00.000000000000
2-3-2No0
4-6.5No
Total:0.1%0.11.11.13.63.50.30.90.00.20.80.80.00.00.00.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 11/8100.0*Lottery seed
Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16 +1.9
Tennessee 34 New England 10 +0.1
LA Rams 36 Seattle 31 -0.1
NY Jets 10 Buffalo 41 -0.1
Tampa Bay 3 Washington 16 +0.1
Green Bay 31 Miami 12 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs NY Giants+0.1-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/15100.0*Lottery seed
Atlanta vs Dallas-1.8+0.1+2.0
Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh+0.2-0.0-0.1
New Orleans vs Philadelphia-0.1+0.0+0.2
Detroit vs Carolina+0.2+0.0-0.1
Indianapolis vs Tennessee+0.0+0.1-0.1
LA Chargers vs Denver-0.1+0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Green Bay+0.1+0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Minnesota-0.0+0.0+0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati-0.0-0.1+0.0
NY Giants vs Tampa Bay-0.0-0.1+0.0
Arizona vs Oakland-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
117-0-00111847101949000
10.56-0-10021310216210000
106-1-000103014681482000
5-0-20113721372
9.55-1-1000001382522112000
4-0-3100
95-2-00000000187361715610000
4-1-200198361814510
8.54-2-100003119922251551000
3-1-35050
84-3-0000000516172624145100000
3-2-200616172624135100
7.53-3-100000161727261551000
2-2-3434314
73-4-0000000029192624135100000
2-3-200038192623145100
6.52-4-10000282130241230000
1-3-3404020
62-5-0000014122327209300000
1-4-2001412242820920
5.51-5-100015162829165100
0-4-3100
51-6-0000013112329229200
0-5-213102330211020
4.50-6-100141733311320
40-7-000015163132142
Total:00000000051623577678876653221000