Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances

Lost to New Orleans 9-20, playoff odds down 17.4 to 22.8%
1-2-0   .333

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New Orleans 20 Minnesota 9 -8.5
-0.7
-0.9
St. Louis 31 Dallas 34 -0.3
-0.0
Detroit 19 Green Bay 7 -0.2
-0.0
NY Giants 30 Houston 17 -0.2
Atlanta 56 Tampa Bay 14 -0.1
Arizona 23 San Francisco 14 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
NY Jets vs Chicago+1.0*+1.2-1.2
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Seattle vs Denver-0.3*-1.8+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Carolina vs Pittsburgh-0.2*-1.6+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Minnesota vs Atlanta+8.2*-2.7-7.5
+0.4*-0.2-0.4
+1.1*-0.3-1.0
NY Jets vs Detroit+1.3*-0.9-1.3
+0.1*-0.2-0.1
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Chicago vs Green Bay-0.4*+0.5+0.8
-0.0*+0.3+0.0
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Baltimore vs Carolina+0.3*+1.0-0.4
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Washington vs NY Giants-0.1*+1.7+0.2
+0.0+0.1-0.0
San Francisco vs Philadelphia+0.0*+0.4-0.0
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Minnesota finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1413-0-0In991433
13.512-0-1In1004
1312-1-0In9010002,918
12.511-1-1In673343
1211-2-0In6430402019,471
11.510-2-1In37401912204
1110-3-0100.0%2541203101078,255
9-2-2In1001
10.59-3-199.59293291830627
109-4-097.831731162110200214,162
8-3-2In50502
9.58-4-187.8031829162211101,587
98-5-066.9011023102220103000420,370
7-4-250.050502
8.57-5-130.6218110252614412,754
87-6-014.0009041425251561000607,635
6-5-220.0202040205
7.56-6-12.4201722322410203,469
76-7-01.0010003112329229200651,686
5-6-2Out171750176
6.55-7-10.2001518302914303,154
65-8-00.000002923322491521,695
4-7-2Out83846813
5.54-8-1Out0521392862,251
54-9-0Out00313323616308,013
3-8-2Out2525504
4.53-9-1Out2164537991
43-10-0Out001103752130,227
2-9-2Out3333333
3.52-10-1Out32771300
32-11-0Out01168337,528
2.51-11-1Out109051
21-12-0Out03976,387
1.50-12-1Out1006
10-13-0Out0100719
Total:22.8%13473567889999753,014,976

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Minnesota finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeArizonaPhiladelphiaCarolinaAtlantaDetroitDallasChicagoSeattleWashingtonNew OrleansSan FranciscoGreen BayNY GiantsSt. LouisTampa Bay
13.5-1411.0%Yes
1312-1-011.410000000000
12.511-1-19.3Yes
1211-2-09.994001110000000000
11.510-2-112.377211122131201100
1110-3-07.566334443232220110
9-2-2NoYes
10.59-3-17.738567466455441320
109-4-04.320779997665531220
8-3-2No5050
9.58-4-12.5479109108665631220
98-5-01.91778775454431210
7-4-2No50
8.57-5-10.6334423132210110
87-6-00.40122211111110000
6-5-2No20
7.56-6-10.1000000000000
76-7-00.0000000000000000
5-6-2No
6.55-7-1No000
65-8-00.0000000000000
4-7-2No
1-5.5No
Total:0.9%4.01.81.92.22.22.01.61.21.51.31.20.80.30.50.30.1
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
New Orleans 20 Minnesota 9 +1.9
Miami 15 Kansas City 34 +0.1
Buffalo 10 San Diego 22 +0.1
St. Louis 31 Dallas 34 +0.1
Philadelphia 37 Washington 34 +0.1
New England 16 Oakland 9 -0.0
Detroit 19 Green Bay 7 +0.0
Arizona 23 San Francisco 14 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Carolina vs Pittsburgh-0.1*+0.1+0.1
NY Jets vs Chicago-0.0*-0.4+0.0
Seattle vs Denver+0.0*+0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Atlanta-2.2-0.1+2.0
NY Jets vs Detroit-0.1+0.1+0.1
Kansas City vs New England+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Oakland vs Miami+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Washington vs NY Giants-0.0*-0.2+0.1
Houston vs Buffalo+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Dallas vs New Orleans+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Baltimore vs Carolina+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Chicago vs Green Bay+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Indianapolis vs Tennessee-0.0-0.1+0.0
San Francisco vs Philadelphia+0.0*-0.3-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1413-0-09631
13.512-0-1100
1312-1-0642510000
12.511-1-1442333
1211-2-02440255400200
11.510-2-1730301018012
1110-3-022317241743082100
9-2-2100
10.59-3-197212399014430
109-4-0031161120134912822000
8-3-25050
9.58-4-10033142094121661020
98-5-00011981519716811841000
7-4-25050
8.57-5-123141198192114620
87-6-00001800041371216181510410000
6-5-220402020
7.56-6-1020002816242315620
76-7-0001000000024915192016941000
5-6-2333333
6.55-7-10001310192522145100
65-8-000000138152123178300
4-7-2815158882315
5.54-8-101512242821820
54-9-000027172727153
3-8-2255025
4.53-9-101722322810
43-10-000017234029
2-9-23367
3.52-10-102124145
32-11-00042669
2.51-11-121682
21-12-00793
1.50-12-1100
10-13-0199
Total:01121324122312234444455555555443