Detroit Lions Playoff Chances

Lost to New England 9-34, playoff odds down 24.8 to 59.6%
7-4-0   .636

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 11/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England 34 Detroit 9 -4.1
-0.7
-0.3
Seattle 19 Arizona 3 -3.6
-0.1
NY Giants 28 Dallas 31 -2.6
-0.1
-0.1
San Francisco 17 Washington 13 -1.9
-0.1
Philadelphia 43 Tennessee 24 -0.7
-0.1
-0.0
Minnesota 21 Green Bay 24 -0.5
-0.3
-0.2
Chicago 21 Tampa Bay 13 -0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Detroit vs Chicago+10.8-15.4-25.6
+0.4*-0.6-0.9
+0.5-0.6-1.1
Dallas vs Philadelphia-0.7-10.0+0.9
-0.0-0.2+0.0
Green Bay vs New England-0.8-3.3+0.9
-0.1*-0.1+0.2
-0.2-0.3+0.2
San Francisco vs Seattle-0.4*+0.4+0.3
+0.1*-0.1-0.0
Atlanta vs Arizona+0.3*-0.1-0.2
+0.0*-0.5-0.0
Minnesota vs Carolina-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Detroit finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
125-0-0In28648253,077
11.54-0-1In103632211950
114-1-099.7%12226341601,168,564
3-0-2In1001
10.53-1-190.222128401003,097
103-2-068.80180124829301,662,832
9.52-2-124.530219561903,198
92-3-09.4010084243501,042,469
1-2-233.33333333
8.51-3-11.100121621501,305
81-4-00.10000330561000303,009
7.50-4-1Out01554272204
70-5-0Out016542640033,435
Total:59.6%210110132421135100004,472,144

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Detroit finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeArizonaGreen BayPhiladelphiaDallasNew OrleansSeattleSan FranciscoAtlantaCarolinaChicagoTampa BaySt. LouisMinnesota
125-0-06.6%92031201100
11.54-0-15.64611046148451
114-1-02.9231131082364930000
3-0-2NoYes
10.53-1-11.7242115101883820
103-2-01.013191611852310000
9.52-2-10.3296411110
92-3-00.10033201000000
1-2-2No33
8.51-3-10.100000
81-4-00.000000000
7-7.5No
Total:1.6%11.51.711.49.46.68.93.71.83.51.00.00.00.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 11/20100.0*Lottery seed
New England 34 Detroit 9 +0.8
Minnesota 21 Green Bay 24 +0.4
Seattle 19 Arizona 3 +0.2
NY Giants 28 Dallas 31 +0.1
San Francisco 17 Washington 13 +0.1
Oakland 24 Kansas City 20 -0.1
Philadelphia 43 Tennessee 24 +0.0
San Diego 27 St. Louis 24 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
New Orleans vs Baltimore-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Buffalo vs NY Jets+0.0*+0.2-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/27100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit vs Chicago-1.1+1.2+2.7
Green Bay vs New England+0.3+0.6-0.3
Dallas vs Philadelphia+0.0+0.5-0.0
Minnesota vs Carolina-0.0-0.3+0.0
Atlanta vs Arizona-0.0+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs New Orleans+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati-0.1*-0.1+0.1
NY Jets vs Miami-0.1-0.0+0.0
San Francisco vs Seattle-0.0-0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Cleveland-0.0*+0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
125-0-0424412380
11.54-0-111015213022011
114-1-0013191313251015100
3-0-2100
10.53-1-1025161216355100
103-2-00011800292523141241000
9.52-2-13002217182721820
92-3-00010000081718272311200
1-2-2333333
8.51-3-1001141531301330
81-4-000000017233525710
7.50-4-10418303791
70-5-00214383411100
Total:0236460076141166676432100000