Chicago Bears Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.03 to 8.4%
3-4-0   .429

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England vs Chicago-2.7-1.8+5.5
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
-0.4-0.1+0.8
Atlanta vs Detroit+1.0*-0.0-0.6
Carolina vs Seattle+0.7*+0.1-0.5
Arizona vs Philadelphia+0.3-0.8-0.3
-0.0-0.1+0.0
Dallas vs Washington-0.2*+0.0+0.7
+0.0-0.0-0.1
New Orleans vs Green Bay+0.5*+0.1-0.4
Kansas City vs St. Louis+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Minnesota+0.0+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
San Francisco vs St. Louis-0.3-0.6+0.6
+0.0-0.1-0.0
Houston vs Philadelphia+0.6*-0.4-0.5
Dallas vs Arizona-0.1-1.0+0.1
+0.0-0.1-0.0
Seattle vs Oakland-0.2*+0.1+0.5
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Indianapolis-0.4*-0.3+0.2
-0.1-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Chicago finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
129-0-0In6531203028,124
11.58-0-1In244911160207
118-1-099.7%133611035500313,313
7-0-2In1001
10.57-1-195.41152113225502,264
107-2-085.007111293714101,681,148
6-1-285.7292929147
9.56-2-149.41527353812110,827
96-3-030.8002142545213005,084,612
5-2-227.033225119337
8.55-3-14.5000424442430027,524
85-4-01.80000217413181009,506,175
4-3-21.9285334453
7.54-4-10.00011236351320041,359
74-5-00.0000006263722710011,369,690
3-4-2Out33628257175
6.53-5-1Out03163331133039,051
63-6-0Out00172435248108,679,618
2-5-2Out720203911244
5.52-6-1Out0315343413121,808
1-5-3Out1001
52-7-0Out001725382454,072,749
1-6-2Out52438241021
4.51-7-1Out042546256,590
41-8-0Out011543411,062,005
0-7-2Out1001
3.50-8-1Out022375841
30-9-0Out001287121,007
Total:8.4%011025101415131110864242,069,152

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Chicago finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeDallasGreen BayDetroitPhiladelphiaArizonaCarolinaNew OrleansSeattleSan FranciscoAtlantaNY GiantsTampa BaySt. LouisMinnesotaWashington
129-0-05.6%96000002100000000
11.58-0-13.472232192124
118-1-03.4482432319922600000
7-0-2YesYes
10.57-1-12.316511751016955510000
107-2-01.47410651116865510000
6-1-2No1414142914
9.56-2-10.614954105343100000
96-3-00.30263263232100000
5-2-2No3833335
8.55-3-10.0010010000000000
85-4-00.00000000000000000
4-3-2No2
7.54-4-1No0000
74-5-00.000000000000
3-4-2No
3-6.5No
Total:0.1%0.70.51.20.70.51.31.10.60.60.50.40.10.00.00.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/23100.0*Lottery seed
New England vs Chicago+1.1-0.2-2.2
Carolina vs Seattle-0.1-0.1+0.1
Dallas vs Washington-0.1*-0.0+0.2
Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis+0.1+0.2-0.0
New Orleans vs Green Bay+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Detroit+0.1+0.1-0.0
Cleveland vs Oakland+0.0+0.0-0.1
Cincinnati vs Baltimore+0.1*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Washington-0.1+0.0+0.1
Cleveland vs Tampa Bay+0.1*-0.0-0.2
NY Giants vs Indianapolis+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Kansas City vs NY Jets+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Arizona-0.0+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore+0.1*+0.0-0.0
San Francisco vs St. Louis-0.0-0.0+0.1
Houston vs Philadelphia+0.1*+0.1-0.0
New England vs Denver-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Seattle vs Oakland+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Cincinnati vs Jacksonville+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
129-0-06581417100200
11.58-0-10232128911510
118-1-0013233470021145000
7-0-2100
10.57-1-1111471410171623240
107-2-00007110005242017114000
6-1-2291414141414
9.56-2-1105010713222917410
96-3-00002010432212222010410000
5-2-2332283216115
8.55-3-100000431324271982000
85-4-0000000202817242315720000
4-3-2211153821842
7.54-4-1000027182725145100
74-5-0000000001513232619930000
3-4-2324212016951
6.53-5-10014132629197100
63-6-000013112228211030000
2-5-2227251823167
5.52-6-10003122531207100
1-5-3100
52-7-00003122529208200
1-6-251933385
4.51-7-10151934291120
41-8-000018223225102
0-7-2100
3.50-8-10162237285
30-9-000110293921
Total:00010100021423456778877765432100