Chicago Bears Playoff Chances

Beat NY Jets 27-19, playoff odds up 13.9 to 55.9%
2-1-0   .667

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
NY Jets 19 Chicago 27 +8.6
+0.7
+0.8
New Orleans 20 Minnesota 9 +1.0
+0.1
+0.1
Carolina 19 Pittsburgh 37 +0.4
+0.1
Seattle 26 Denver 20 -0.3
-0.0
Atlanta 56 Tampa Bay 14 -0.2
Detroit 19 Green Bay 7 -0.2
NY Giants 30 Houston 17 -0.1
-0.0
St. Louis 31 Dallas 34 -0.1
+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Chicago vs Green Bay+7.8-3.9-14.8
+0.8*-1.2-1.5
+0.7-0.3-1.4
NY Jets vs Detroit+1.7*+2.1-1.6
+0.2*-0.1-0.2
+0.2*+0.2-0.1
Minnesota vs Atlanta-0.7*+1.4+0.6
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Baltimore vs Carolina+0.4*+0.1-0.6
+0.0*+0.4-0.1
+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Washington vs NY Giants-0.2*+0.7+0.5
San Francisco vs Philadelphia+0.2*-2.0-0.2
+0.1*-0.7-0.1
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Dallas vs New Orleans-0.1*+1.3+0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Chicago finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1513-0-0In10001,981
14.512-0-1In10018
1412-1-0In98218,080
13.511-1-1In964174
1311-2-0In891100096,380
10-1-2In1001
12.510-2-1In782011798
1210-3-0100.0%623140300313,408
9-2-2In2040405
11.59-3-1In424211152,309
119-4-0100.0234120312100680,799
8-3-2In2267119
10.58-4-199.873134916404,557
108-5-097.4215291622122001,059,595
7-4-2In258501712
9.57-5-189.504202816229206,185
97-6-063.40182210232211300001,199,368
6-5-276.529123518617
8.56-6-131.1011811024271441006,219
86-7-010.80070312242718720001,007,402
5-6-214.314729292114
7.55-7-13.6401820302411204,362
75-8-00.7010002820292513300623,803
4-7-2Out132525388
6.54-8-10.1000416333014302,258
64-9-00.000015183229132283,384
3-8-2Out5025254
5.53-9-1Out01518373010750
53-10-0Out001829412191,683
2-9-2Out1001
4.52-10-1Out174241191
42-11-0Out007345919,844
3.51-11-1Out297128
31-12-0Out012882,657
2.50-12-1Out1001
20-13-0Out199575
Total:55.9%91010108887765432215,426,880

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Chicago finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeArizonaPhiladelphiaAtlantaDetroitSeattleCarolinaDallasWashingtonNew OrleansMinnesotaSan FranciscoNY GiantsGreen BaySt. LouisTampa Bay
13.5-1515.4%Yes
1311-2-015.299000000000000000
10-1-2NoYes
12.510-2-113.598000000000000
1210-3-014.093111111111000000
9-2-220.0602020
11.59-3-113.584111222221110000
119-4-010.764334434333221110
8-3-2No8911
10.58-4-18.238656866554332110
108-5-06.1187891178665432220
7-4-2No25817178888
9.57-5-14.6488101188776432210
97-6-02.91677866544321110
6-5-2No181266661266
8.56-6-11.50343333322111100
86-7-00.50111111111000000
5-6-2No77
7.55-7-10.2000001000000
75-8-00.000000000000000
4-7-2No
6.54-8-1No000
64-9-00.00000000000
3-8-2No
2-5.5No
Total:4.4%19.23.53.64.24.63.53.63.02.62.51.61.50.90.70.70.2
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
NY Jets 19 Chicago 27 -2.2
Buffalo 10 San Diego 22 +0.1
Carolina 19 Pittsburgh 37 +0.1
Miami 15 Kansas City 34 +0.1
New Orleans 20 Minnesota 9 -0.1
St. Louis 31 Dallas 34 -0.1
Arizona 23 San Francisco 14 +0.1
New England 16 Oakland 9 -0.0
Seattle 26 Denver 20 +0.0
Cincinnati 33 Tennessee 7 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Green Bay-1.4+0.3+2.8
NY Jets vs Detroit-0.2*-0.3+0.2
Indianapolis vs Tennessee+0.0-0.3-0.0
Dallas vs New Orleans+0.0-0.2-0.0
San Francisco vs Philadelphia-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Kansas City vs New England+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs Atlanta+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Baltimore vs Carolina+0.0-0.1-0.0
Oakland vs Miami+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Houston vs Buffalo+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1513-0-09910
14.512-0-1100
1412-1-09262
13.511-1-18794
1311-2-06919100000
10-1-2100
12.510-2-1562219011
1210-3-0303327440003000
9-2-2204040
11.59-3-11329348110150
119-4-04192218183301021000
8-3-222442211
10.58-4-107102125980124400
108-5-0022131515142111110220000
7-4-2258173388
9.57-5-10044161984121678200
97-6-00011711111810139129410000
6-5-21218121224186
8.56-6-1014141110817211462000
86-7-00001600031371217181610510000
5-6-2147217721714
7.55-7-103000271523221772000
75-8-0001000000249151920169410000
4-7-21313252525
6.54-8-1000131019252312510
64-9-00000138152123179300
3-8-225252525
5.53-9-11311232923910
53-10-000027172727164
2-9-2100
4.52-10-1271541288
42-11-0017223931
3.51-11-14143943
31-12-0042669
2.50-12-1100
20-13-00693
Total:45556564444433333433333222111100