Chicago Bears Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.06 to 44.4%
1-1-0   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Arizona vs Chicago-10.9-1.1+9.0
-1.0*-0.2+0.9
-1.2-0.1+1.0
Minnesota vs Buffalo-1.1*+0.4+2.1
-0.1*-0.2+0.2
-0.1*+0.0+0.2
Washington vs Green Bay+0.7*+0.2-1.1
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Detroit vs New England-0.6*+0.3+0.6
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh-0.4*-0.4+0.6
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Kansas City vs San Francisco+0.4*-0.1-0.6
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Carolina vs Cincinnati-0.5*-0.4+0.5
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Indianapolis-0.4*+0.7+0.5
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Seattle vs Dallas+0.3*-0.0-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Houston vs NY Giants+0.2*-0.0-0.3
LA Rams vs LA Chargers-0.2*+0.1+0.3
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs New Orleans-0.1*+0.6+0.1
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Chicago vs Tampa Bay+9.7-2.2-12.4
+1.0*-0.4-1.2
+1.0-0.2-1.3
Green Bay vs Buffalo-1.1*-0.2+2.0
-0.1*-0.1+0.2
-0.1*-0.0+0.2
LA Rams vs Minnesota+1.0*-0.6-1.6
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
LA Chargers vs San Francisco+0.4*+0.1-0.6
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Cincinnati-0.5*+0.2+0.5
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Tennessee vs Philadelphia+0.4*-0.2-0.5
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs New Orleans+0.3*-0.5-0.3
Arizona vs Seattle+0.1*+0.4-0.1
Dallas vs Detroit-0.0*+0.4+0.1
-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1514-0-0In10008,267
14.513-0-1In10055
1413-1-0In991063,690
13.512-1-1In9820696
1312-2-0In9270000385,004
11-1-2In1001
12.511-2-1In8314133,566
1211-3-0In702430401,419,657
10-2-2In7971414
11.510-3-1In5134609011,937
1110-4-0100.0%3137152141003,575,831
9-3-2In13591531039
10.59-4-199.81332224254027,256
109-5-098.25192611271120006,519,804
8-4-298.422525102892122
9.58-5-192.0162015272371044,486
98-6-070.70210171526198200008,862,272
7-5-270.01121612291695140
8.57-6-138.10031341829229200053,585
87-7-015.0001717162523145100009,130,449
6-6-215.51114182524143148
7.56-7-13.10300414262917610048,557
76-8-00.801001411222721103007,172,856
5-7-21.72211182823133120
6.55-8-10.100017203126122032,661
65-9-00.00000281930261224,271,733
4-8-2Out81235356365
5.54-9-1Out016213529915,972
54-10-00.0000292739231,898,346
3-9-2Out10321481729
4.53-10-1Out021241455,679
43-11-0Out00163262609,247
2-10-2Out2525508
3.52-11-1Out0118811,365
32-12-0Out001189133,816
2.51-12-1Out298212
21-13-0Out029818,202
1.50-13-1Out1009
10-14-0Out01004,520
Total:44.4%677788877766543244,320,416

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeLA RamsTampa BayMinnesotaWashingtonGreen BayDallasPhiladelphiaAtlantaCarolinaSan FranciscoNew OrleansSeattleNY GiantsDetroitArizona
14.5-1515.5%Yes
1413-1-015.510000000000
13.512-1-116.7100000
1312-2-015.399000000000000000
11-1-2NoYes
12.511-2-114.097100000100000000
1211-3-014.394110101100000000
10-2-27.18614
11.510-3-113.085211112211111100
1110-4-011.369333323322221101
9-3-220.57253335533
10.59-4-18.945655545544432211
109-5-06.824877766655543211
8-4-27.42762810261145355222
9.58-5-14.97988877766643311
98-6-03.32777655555543211
7-5-25.71571159486424221
8.57-6-11.70443333333321111
87-7-00.70221111111111000
6-6-2No1111122311
7.56-7-10.2000000000000000
76-8-00.0000000000000000
5-7-2No11
6.55-8-1No0000000000
65-9-00.0000000000000
4-8-2No
5.54-9-1No
54-10-0No00
3-9-2No
1-4.5No
Total:3.4%13.63.23.12.92.82.32.52.52.22.12.21.61.30.90.50.5
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Cleveland 21 NY Jets 17 +0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Arizona vs Chicago+2.4+0.1-1.9
Minnesota vs Buffalo+0.1*-0.1-0.2
Seattle vs Dallas-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Miami vs Oakland-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Atlanta vs New Orleans+0.0-0.1-0.0
Washington vs Green Bay-0.0+0.0+0.1
Carolina vs Cincinnati+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs Indianapolis+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Tampa Bay-1.9+0.2+2.5
LA Rams vs Minnesota-0.1*+0.1+0.2
Green Bay vs Buffalo+0.1*-0.0-0.2
Jacksonville vs NY Jets+0.0-0.2-0.0
Dallas vs Detroit+0.1-0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs New Orleans-0.1+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Cincinnati+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Arizona vs Seattle-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1514-0-010000
14.513-0-1982
1413-1-0954100
13.512-1-193520
1312-2-076167000000
11-1-2100
12.511-2-1641914013
1211-3-03634213300400
10-2-24336714
11.510-3-11833286600900
1110-4-05262017132201221000
9-3-23103623133310
10.59-4-11121022175402054000
109-5-0052171115921413912000
8-4-224201015731513722
9.58-5-11064161057201767100
98-6-0002110610114101711106210000
7-5-211115111114241171011
8.57-6-1000321104117817191251000
87-7-00001060107148131616138410000
6-6-21914231113181311931
7.56-7-10030000271522231783100
76-8-000100000012591418191610410000
5-7-22248111920169722
6.55-8-10000261523241893100
65-9-0000001261319231911410
4-8-2231217201115128
5.54-9-100271726271551
54-10-00000014122430226
3-9-23721144177
4.53-10-100212293719
43-11-000003153942
2-10-2135038
3.52-11-10063163
32-12-00011881
2.51-12-10892
21-13-00396
1.50-13-1100
10-14-00100
Total:24343434353533334433333333322221