Washington Redskins Playoff Chances

Beat Jacksonville 41-10, playoff odds up 29.7 to 52.6%
1-1-0   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Washington 41 Jacksonville 10 +4.8
+0.3
+0.6
Tennessee 10 Dallas 26 -1.0
-0.1
San Diego 30 Seattle 21 +0.5
+0.1
+0.0
NY Giants 14 Arizona 25 +0.5
Minnesota 7 New England 30 +0.3
Cincinnati 24 Atlanta 10 +0.3
+0.0
Green Bay 31 NY Jets 24 -0.2
San Francisco 20 Chicago 28 +0.2
-0.0
Cleveland 26 New Orleans 24 +0.2
+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Indianapolis vs Philadelphia+1.4*-0.9-1.6
+0.2*-0.8-0.3
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Philadelphia vs Washington-11.0*+1.2+13.4
-1.6*-0.0+1.9
-1.1*+0.2+1.3
St. Louis vs Dallas+1.1*+0.3-1.0
+0.2*+0.6-0.2
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs Houston-0.6*+0.2+0.5
-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Seattle vs Denver-0.4*-1.3+0.6
-0.1*-0.2+0.1
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Chicago+0.4*-0.0-0.5
+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay-0.3*+0.9+0.4
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Carolina vs Pittsburgh-0.2*+1.4+0.3
-0.1*+0.4+0.2
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Detroit vs Green Bay-0.1*+2.2+0.2
-0.0*+0.2+0.1
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco-0.0*-0.2+0.1
+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Washington finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-15In1001,840*
1413-1-0In991015,787
13.512-1-1In946142
1312-2-0In9270084,680
11-1-2In1001
12.511-2-1In831501730
1211-3-0In70242030279,406
10-2-2In50504
11.510-3-1In543460602,257
1110-4-0100.0%31391521310625,097
9-3-2In334411119
10.59-4-1100.0143623420304,597
8-3-3In1001
109-5-098.24192812251020001,009,982
8-4-294.16292412186617
9.58-5-193.217221825206106,633
98-6-068.6011020132420920001,216,108
7-5-271.45191433191021
8.57-6-139.4316417282192007,004
87-7-013.80181413232516720001,102,191
6-6-210.0101020402020
7.56-7-13.40303102331207205,519
76-8-01.1010002718272515510760,361
5-7-2Out4217251712
6.55-8-10.101516283115403,251
65-9-00.000014142832194395,490
4-8-2Out50502
5.54-9-1Out04163633111,476
54-10-0Out015214232152,993
4.53-10-1Out183556431
43-11-0Out003257242,681
3.52-11-1Out138779
32-12-0Out06948,129
2.51-12-1Out188211
21-13-0Out199964
1-1.5Out100490*
Total:52.6%99989877665543325,728,416

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Washington finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeCarolinaArizonaPhiladelphiaSeattleChicagoMinnesotaDetroitSan FranciscoDallasAtlantaGreen BayNew OrleansSt. LouisTampa BayNY Giants
14.5-1519.5%Yes
1413-1-018.11000
13.512-1-119.7Yes
1312-2-018.39900000000000000
11-1-2NoYes
12.511-2-119.99900000000
1211-3-017.594110100110000000
10-2-2NoYes
11.510-3-115.987111111111111100
1110-4-014.069332332332221110
9-3-2No781111
10.59-4-111.250444444543333211
8-3-3NoYes
109-5-08.723777666665543321
8-4-25.9351266666666
9.58-5-16.87998777766543421
98-6-04.41777655555432321
7-5-2No1010514510514
8.57-6-12.2453433332221211
87-7-00.90121211110111100
6-6-2No55
7.56-7-10.20010001000000
76-8-00.100000000000000
5-7-2No
6.55-8-1No0000
65-9-00.0000000000000
4-8-2No
1-5.5No
Total:5.4%18.43.33.63.13.12.72.62.72.82.32.11.81.31.40.80.5
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/11100.0*Lottery seed
Washington 41 Jacksonville 10 -1.7
Minnesota 7 New England 30 +0.1
Oakland 14 Houston 30 -0.1
San Francisco 20 Chicago 28 +0.1
San Diego 30 Seattle 21 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Indianapolis vs Philadelphia-0.2*+0.2+0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia vs Washington+2.1-0.4-2.6
Carolina vs Pittsburgh+0.0-0.2-0.0
St. Louis vs Dallas-0.1*-0.1+0.1
New England vs Oakland+0.0-0.2-0.0
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Arizona vs San Francisco+0.0-0.1-0.0
New Orleans vs Minnesota+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Cincinnati vs Tennessee+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Detroit vs Green Bay+0.0*-0.4-0.0
Buffalo vs San Diego-0.0*+0.4+0.0
Miami vs Kansas City+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Seattle vs Denver-0.0*+0.3+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1514-0-0991
14.513-0-19010
1413-1-093610
13.512-1-18686
1312-2-073197000
11-1-2100
12.511-2-158251501
1211-3-03436213200300
10-2-25050
11.510-3-11737277600600
1110-4-0526201813220121100
9-3-23322221111
10.59-4-111312241764016430
8-3-3100
109-5-00431613151021411912000
8-4-2612186186612666
9.58-5-11074181267191556100
98-6-00011991121111131110631000
7-5-25101051019145195
8.57-6-1033130411691818104100
87-7-0001180104148131516139420000
6-6-21051010151015205
7.56-7-10030028162323157200
76-8-000100000012591317181611520000
5-7-2817332588
6.55-8-10012714242516820
65-9-0000001361218221912510
4-8-2100
5.54-9-10281827251540
54-10-0000015122329227
4.53-10-10311263920
43-11-00014153942
3.52-11-142472
32-12-0021980
2.51-12-11882
21-13-0595
1.50-13-1100
10-14-0199
Total:46454544454433333333333322222111