Dallas Cowboys Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.008 to 82.7%
6-1-0   .857

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Dallas vs Washington+8.1+3.0-8.1
+1.2*+0.6-1.2
+0.7+0.3-0.7
New Orleans vs Green Bay+1.0*+0.1-1.0
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
New England vs Chicago+0.7+1.1-0.7
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Atlanta vs Detroit+0.7*+0.9-0.7
+0.1*+0.4-0.1
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Carolina vs Seattle+0.5*+0.1-0.5
Arizona vs Philadelphia+0.3*+0.4-0.3
+0.2*+0.1-0.2
+0.2+0.1-0.2
Tampa Bay vs Minnesota+0.3*-0.0-0.3
Kansas City vs St. Louis+0.2*-0.3-0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Dallas vs Arizona+8.3+3.3-8.3
+1.3*+0.2-1.3
+0.8+0.2-0.8
NY Giants vs Indianapolis-0.8*+0.6+0.8
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
San Francisco vs St. Louis-0.7*+0.6+0.7
-0.1*-0.4+0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Houston vs Philadelphia+0.7*-0.1-0.7
+0.3*+0.2-0.3
+0.2+0.1-0.2
Seattle vs Oakland-0.4*-0.4+0.4
-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Minnesota vs Washington+0.2*+0.8-0.2
Cleveland vs Tampa Bay+0.1*-0.7-0.0
Carolina vs New Orleans-0.0*-0.2+0.0
-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Dallas finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-15In10055,643*
148-1-0In99000475,201
7-0-2In1003
13.57-1-1In99103,113
137-2-0In9440101,899,238
6-1-2In1003
12.56-2-1In8980310,725
126-3-0100.0%7119109004,438,472
5-2-2In71184728
11.55-3-1In55283014021,386
115-4-0100.02833100282006,649,124
4-3-2In273972741
10.54-4-199.91229172363026,468
104-5-096.3314193401930006,652,706
3-4-297.6272422932241
9.53-5-190.404157343091021,397
93-6-053.401641330301330004,434,232
2-5-284.63815311513
8.52-6-124.801331733281220010,618
82-7-03.60010312263020720001,901,830
1-6-2Out29141429147
7.51-7-10.1001825332382003,133
71-8-00.00001415282917510475,966
6.50-8-1Out041127322041421
60-9-0Out0019253623555,103
Total:82.7%2815812010743211000027,134,912

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Dallas finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeArizonaPhiladelphiaDetroitGreen BayCarolinaSan FranciscoSeattleNew OrleansChicagoAtlantaNY GiantsSt. LouisTampa BayMinnesotaWashington
14.5-1512.5%Yes
148-1-012.51000000000000000
7-0-233.3Yes
13.57-1-112.010000000
137-2-012.399000000000000000
6-1-2NoYes
12.56-2-112.8970000100100000
126-3-011.990101131020100100
5-2-27.189444
11.55-3-111.283111151130200100
115-4-010.0612333102251411200
4-3-217.166527552222
10.54-4-18.8424545134372622211
104-5-07.1176978155483622311
3-4-212.21071271017575222522
9.53-5-15.9481189136474622311
93-6-03.41586674342311111
2-5-215.481588815888
8.52-6-11.60343332111111000
82-7-00.20111000000000000
1-6-2No
7.51-7-1No00
71-8-0No00000
6-6.5No
Total:7.8%42.83.14.43.43.77.82.51.94.21.43.20.91.11.40.50.4
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/23100.0*Lottery seed
Dallas vs Washington-1.5-0.4+1.5
Arizona vs Philadelphia-0.3-0.2+0.3
New Orleans vs Green Bay-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Detroit-0.1*-0.1+0.1
New England vs Chicago-0.0-0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Buffalo-0.0-0.1+0.0
Jacksonville vs Miami-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Kansas City vs St. Louis+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Lottery seed
Dallas vs Arizona-1.5-0.3+1.5
Houston vs Philadelphia-0.4-0.1+0.4
San Francisco vs St. Louis+0.1-0.1-0.1
NY Giants vs Indianapolis+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Cleveland vs Tampa Bay+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
159-0-01000
14.58-0-1991
148-1-0981000
7-0-2100
13.57-1-197210
137-2-0868400100
6-1-2100
12.56-2-1751480030
126-3-049221811009000
5-2-243291847
11.55-3-126292533001400
115-4-081923991002622000
4-3-252229107242
10.54-4-1111131714320306300
104-5-0034111172027131713000
3-4-22521212217122922
9.53-5-10044125210242378100
93-6-00011522211171419168310000
2-5-2381582388
8.52-6-1010303116112122156100
82-7-00000000032714192016115210000
1-6-214294314
7.51-7-1000026162326177300
71-8-0000001371420211710521000
6.50-8-101515212521930
60-9-00001410182321147200
Total:181010553101557343222111000000000000