National Football Conference Playoff Chances

Carolina +20.9, San Francisco -10.4
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsWin SBChance will finish regular season at seed
10/13GW-L-TPCTGD%Change%Change12345678910111213141516Avg.ChangeRPIStrengthMonday
SeattleWTennessee 20-135-1-0.8336394.9%+1.716.6%+2.148221228421100000002.4+0.424.659Seattle Seahawks
New OrleansLNew England 27-305-1-0.8335893.0-4.913.5-5.531281857432110000002.8-0.851.645New Orleans Saints
DetroitWCleveland 31-174-2-0.6672267.8+13.33.3+1.36141751213118632100005.2+1.0111.554Detroit Lions
Green BayWBaltimore 19-1713-2-0.6002357.4+6.52.8+0.351114510131210854211005.9+0.575.557Green Bay Packers
DallasWashington 0-0 (8:30 PM ET)12-3-0.4001649.8-7.71.7-0.6148331346898643107.0-0.5019.536Dallas Cowboys
PhiladelphiaWTampa Bay 31-203-3-0.500-1348.4+11.90.9+0.31373223578108642107.1+1.2814.471Philadelphia Eagles
San FranciscoArizona 32-20 (2:09 4th Qtr)13-2-0.6001545.4-10.41.5-0.83321211513111086431007.2-0.593.542San Francisco 49ers
Chicago4-2-0.6671143.9-9.81.5-0.62610491213121086421006.9-0.6215.526Chicago Bears
CarolinaWMinnesota 35-1012-3-0.4004143.7+20.93.0+2.12673131413121086421007.1+2.0125.620Carolina Panthers
ArizonaSan Francisco 20-32 (2:09 4th Qtr)13-2-0.600-430.3-8.40.6-0.312211212131312119642008.1-0.4813.488Arizona Cardinals
WashingtonDallas 0-0 (8:30 PM ET)21-3-0.250-2112.4-4.10.2-0.100110012369121515148411.1-0.2818.449Washington Redskins
St. LouisWHouston 38-133-3-0.500-137.6+3.70.1+0.100102457912141614104110.8+1.3626.467St. Louis Rams
Atlanta11-4-0.200-123.6-2.20.1-0.000001234691215171610411.9-0.3221.470Atlanta Falcons
MinnesotaLCarolina 10-3511-4-0.200-331.6-9.00.0-0.20000012347913182214712.7-2.0432.427Minnesota Vikings
NY Giants0-6-0.000-1060.1-0.10.0000000000012511275315.2+0.1531.297New York Giants
Tampa BayLPhiladelphia 20-3110-5-0.000-370.1-1.20.0-0.0000000001135917343014.6-1.1330.385Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Data is queried every 30 minutes, takes about 5 minutes for the web site to get up to date.
Currently after games are completed, I don't know who was home.
I do update partial games that aren't tied and update throughout the game.
Complete data dump is done every day at 3AM EST to fix mistakes or games that have been added.
Let me know how things are, if data is wrong: adamv at mad dot scientist dot com.


Last Updated: 9/23/2013 12:15:01 AM

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 10/10
Cleveland 17 Detroit 31
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Seattle-0.4
New Orleans-0.2
Detroit+10.7
+0.5
Green Bay-2.0
-0.2
Dallas-0.5
Philadelphia-0.4
San Francisco-1.2
Chicago-2.2
Carolina-1.3
Arizona-1.4
Washington-0.2
St. Louis-0.5
Atlanta-0.3
Minnesota-0.2
Baltimore 17 Green Bay 19
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Seattle-0.3
-0.2
Detroit-1.9
Green Bay+9.5
+0.6
Dallas-0.3
Philadelphia-0.3
San Francisco-1.3
Chicago-1.9
Carolina-0.8
Arizona-1.1
St. Louis-0.2
Atlanta-0.3
Minnesota-0.7
Minnesota 10 Carolina 35
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
New Orleans-0.3
-0.2
Detroit-0.7
Green Bay-0.6
Dallas-0.2
Philadelphia-0.2
San Francisco-0.5
Chicago-0.7
Carolina+9.0
+0.4
Arizona-0.4
Minnesota-5.0
Tampa Bay 20 Philadelphia 31
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit-0.2
Dallas-3.3
Philadelphia+8.4
+0.2
San Francisco-0.5
Chicago-0.2
Carolina-0.4
Arizona-0.5
Washington-1.8
Tampa Bay-0.9
Chicago 27 NY Giants 21
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Seattle-0.2
Detroit-0.9
Green Bay-0.9
San Francisco-0.6
Chicago+5.1
+0.2
Carolina-0.5
Arizona-0.7
Atlanta-0.2
Minnesota-0.4
NY Giants-0.2
Seattle 20 Tennessee 13
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Seattle+2.8
+0.9
New Orleans-0.3
Detroit-0.2
Green Bay-0.3
San Francisco-0.5
Chicago-0.3
Carolina-0.3
Arizona-0.5
St. Louis-0.3
Houston 13 St. Louis 38
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Seattle-0.2
San Francisco-0.4
Chicago-0.3
Arizona-0.6
St. Louis+2.2
New England 30 New Orleans 27
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Seattle+0.3
New Orleans-2.2
-1.1
Detroit+0.2
Green Bay+0.2
San Francisco+0.2
Chicago+0.2
Carolina+0.8
+0.2
San Francisco vs ArizonaIf winner is:HomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
San Francisco55.740.029.1
2.0*1.50.8
Arizona20.331.946.2
0.4*0.61.0
Dallas vs WashingtonHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Dallas58.942.833.2
2.01.21.0
Philadelphia46.349.952.3
0.8*0.90.9
Washington6.415.123.3
0.1*0.20.3
Week of 10/17
Philadelphia vs DallasIf winner is:HomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Dallas32.948.466.4
1.0*1.62.3
Philadelphia65.945.031.3
1.2*0.80.5
Washington vs ChicagoHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit69.5*67.566.2
3.4*3.33.2
Green Bay59.2*56.855.8
2.92.42.7
Chicago32.847.954.3
1.0*1.51.9
Carolina45.042.042.4
3.1*3.22.9
Washington17.2*12.87.8
0.2*0.20.1
Carolina vs St. LouisHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Carolina50.737.727.0
3.62.51.7
St. Louis4.38.415.4
0.1*0.10.2
Arizona vs SeattleHomeTieAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Seattle90.195.697.8
14.5*16.218.0
Arizona44.032.021.8
1.0*0.50.3
Tennessee vs San FranciscoHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
San Francisco37.2*44.656.1
1.2*1.32.0
Arizona31.6*30.628.6
0.6*0.70.6
Detroit vs CincinnatiHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit75.168.957.0
3.9*3.52.5
Green Bay56.1*57.159.5
2.7*2.72.9
Chicago42.545.246.0
1.4*1.51.5
Green Bay vs ClevelandHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit66.669.269.9
3.2*3.33.5
Green Bay63.955.946.2
3.2*2.62.0
Chicago42.7*44.546.1
1.4*1.51.6
Atlanta vs Tampa BayHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Atlanta4.81.91.3

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

First Round Opponents

Who is going to play who in the first round of the playoffs.   Explain

ByeSeattleNew OrleansDetroitGreen BayDallasPhiladelphiaSan FranciscoChicagoCarolinaArizonaWashingtonSt. LouisAtlantaMinnesotaNY GiantsTampa Bay
Seattle69.21.42.72.63.13.13.12.32.72.60.90.70.30.10.00.0
New Orleans59.01.43.93.73.13.14.43.45.63.00.91.00.50.20.00.0
Detroit19.72.73.98.15.96.04.26.24.53.11.80.90.50.30.00.0
Green Bay15.42.63.78.15.05.03.64.83.92.71.50.80.40.20.00.0
Dallas5.23.13.15.95.02.68.04.55.35.10.41.00.50.20.00.0
Philadelphia4.53.13.16.05.02.67.84.45.44.60.41.00.50.20.00.0
San Francisco6.43.14.44.23.68.07.82.72.10.62.00.20.20.10.00.0
Chicago8.52.33.46.24.84.54.42.73.02.01.20.50.30.10.00.0
Carolina7.62.75.64.53.95.35.42.13.01.41.40.40.10.10.00.0
Arizona3.52.63.03.12.75.14.60.62.01.41.40.20.10.10.00.0
Washington0.30.90.91.81.50.40.42.01.21.41.40.20.10.00.00.0
St. Louis0.50.71.00.90.81.01.00.20.50.40.20.20.00.00.00.0
Atlanta0.20.30.50.50.40.50.50.20.30.10.10.10.00.00.00.0
Minnesota0.10.10.20.30.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.00.00.00.00.0
NY Giants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0No
Tampa Bay0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0No