National Football Conference Playoff Chances

New Orleans +20.0, Carolina -18.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsWin SBChance will finish regular season at seed
ThursdayGW-L-TPCTGD%Change%Change12345678910111213141516Avg.ChangeRPIStrengthSunday
Detroit16-2-0.7503691.6%+0.010.2%-0.3272318213952100000003.2-0.0115.612Detroit Lions
Arizona26-1-0.8572588.7+0.07.5-0.330221739863110000003.2-0.022.569at DallasArizona Cardinals
New OrleansWCarolina 28-1014-4-0.5002985.5+20.03.8+1.91413670012333210004.7+1.5219.569New Orleans Saints
Dallas16-2-0.7504685.5+0.18.9-0.32218121211284210000003.9-0.0112.616ArizonaDallas Cowboys
Philadelphia25-2-0.7144774.3+0.66.6-0.211151541514117421000004.7+0.025.611at HoustonPhiladelphia Eagles
Green Bay15-3-0.6253161.9+0.03.4-0.25911416171510632100005.7-0.0211.575Green Bay Packers
Seattle24-3-0.5712246.0+0.02.0-0.13582121617151063210006.6+0.018.558OaklandSeattle Seahawks
San Francisco24-3-0.571-731.9-0.70.7-0.11342913141513107431107.8-0.023.481St. LouisSan Francisco 49ers
NY Giants23-4-0.429-1510.3+0.00.1-0.00010369131515121075319.8+0.0714.460New York Giants
CarolinaLNew Orleans 10-283-5-1.389-598.0-18.00.0-0.200080013710141515149411.5-1.8723.361Carolina Panthers
Atlanta12-6-0.250-297.0-2.00.1-0.000070012461013161916712.330.430Atlanta Falcons
Minnesota13-5-0.375-343.7+0.20.0-0.0000012710141414131284110.6+0.1424.400WashingtonMinnesota Vikings
Chicago13-5-0.375-422.7-0.10.0-0.0000012471012131414117411.4+0.0122.397Chicago Bears
Washington13-5-0.375-292.3+0.00.0-0.000000136912131414129411.6+0.0921.424at MinnesotaWashington Redskins
Tampa Bay21-6-0.143-900.3-0.20.000000000012359176315.2+0.0232.306at ClevelandTampa Bay Buccaneers
St. Louis22-5-0.286-740.3+0.00.00000000123581219341613.9+0.0626.331at San FranciscoSt. Louis Rams

Data is queried every 30 minutes, takes about 5 minutes for the web site to get up to date.
Currently after games are completed, I don't know who was home.
I do update partial games that aren't tied and update throughout the game.
Complete data dump is done every day at 3AM EST to fix mistakes or games that have been added.
Let me know how things are, if data is wrong: adamv at mad dot scientist dot com.


Last Updated: 9/23/2013 12:15:01 AM

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 10/30
Carolina 10 New Orleans 28
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit-0.1
Arizona-0.1
New Orleans+13.6
+0.5
Dallas-0.1
Philadelphia-0.1
Green Bay-0.1
Carolina-12.7
-0.1
Atlanta-0.9
Tampa Bay-0.1
San Francisco vs St. LouisIf winner is:HomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit91.391.592.5
Arizona88.189.790.2
7.47.67.6
Dallas84.887.087.0
8.9*9.09.0
Philadelphia73.476.276.4
6.6*6.76.7
Green Bay60.863.964.4
3.4*3.53.5
Seattle44.748.349.0
2.02.12.1
San Francisco37.723.217.9
0.80.40.3
Seattle vs OaklandHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit91.492.192.5
10.2*10.210.3
Arizona88.389.590.1
7.47.77.7
Dallas85.185.886.8
8.9*9.09.0
Philadelphia73.675.776.5
6.6*6.76.8
Green Bay60.965.465.5
3.43.53.6
Seattle50.037.831.4
2.31.51.2
San Francisco31.232.434.4
NY Giants10.011.011.4
Dallas vs ArizonaHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Arizona84.690.595.4
6.37.89.4
Dallas91.986.775.0
10.58.86.4
Philadelphia73.674.075.4
6.5*6.76.9
Green Bay61.462.462.6
3.43.53.5
San Francisco31.730.332.2
NY Giants9.8*10.211.0
Houston vs PhiladelphiaHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit92.391.091.0
10.510.010.0
Arizona89.587.987.9
7.67.37.3
Dallas86.285.884.8
9.59.28.3
Philadelphia65.878.582.7
5.37.07.9
Green Bay63.561.060.2
3.5*3.43.3
Seattle47.445.744.6
2.1*2.02.0
San Francisco33.530.330.3
NY Giants11.0*10.49.5
NY Giants vs IndianapolisHomeTieAway
Mon100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Dallas84.485.986.1
8.8*8.98.9
Philadelphia73.3*74.274.8
6.6*6.76.6
Green Bay61.1*61.762.3
Seattle45.145.746.5
San Francisco31.0*31.932.5
NY Giants16.211.56.7
0.20.20.1
Minnesota vs WashingtonHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Minnesota5.82.41.2
Washington0.82.14.2
Week of 11/6
New Orleans vs San FranciscoIf winner is:HomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit92.290.990.5
10.2*10.110.3
Arizona89.388.987.6
New Orleans90.186.177.2
4.23.83.2
Dallas86.386.383.9
Philadelphia75.475.372.1
6.66.76.6
Green Bay63.662.758.8
3.43.53.4
Seattle47.346.743.5
San Francisco24.430.245.7
0.40.61.1
NY Giants10.710.09.5
Carolina5.68.612.4
Atlanta5.35.410.2
Green Bay vs ChicagoHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit91.392.192.6
9.910.510.9
Arizona88.3*88.690.0
7.4*7.47.6
Dallas84.886.587.3
8.8*8.99.1
Philadelphia73.675.876.0
6.66.76.8
Green Bay69.360.542.2
4.03.11.9
Seattle44.744.449.4
2.02.02.2
San Francisco30.831.434.8
NY Giants9.711.111.7
Minnesota3.34.64.7
Chicago1.01.57.2
Philadelphia vs CarolinaHomeTieAway
Mon100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit91.391.492.9
10.1*10.110.7
Arizona88.488.490.0
7.4*7.37.7
New Orleans87.184.480.3
3.9*3.83.7
Dallas85.286.386.6
8.79.59.7
Philadelphia78.472.959.8
7.26.14.6
Green Bay61.162.464.5
3.3*3.43.6
Seattle45.346.548.2
2.0*2.12.2
San Francisco31.231.034.4
0.6*0.60.7
NY Giants10.011.011.2
Carolina5.99.415.5
Atlanta7.37.26.0
Seattle vs NY GiantsHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit91.291.592.5
10.1*10.110.4
Arizona88.3*88.889.5
7.3*7.67.7
Philadelphia73.875.275.2
6.6*6.76.7
Green Bay61.064.863.5
3.33.53.5
Seattle54.540.729.6
2.51.71.2
San Francisco31.4*31.832.9
NY Giants5.111.620.2
0.10.20.3
Jacksonville vs DallasHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Dallas74.884.288.2
6.98.49.4
Philadelphia76.674.073.7
7.3*6.66.5
Green Bay63.162.861.6
3.63.53.4
Seattle47.447.045.6
2.22.12.0
San Francisco33.831.631.4
0.7*0.60.6
NY Giants11.6*10.39.9
Arizona vs St. LouisHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Arizona91.784.778.7
8.06.65.7
Philadelphia73.975.575.4
6.57.07.0
Green Bay61.463.263.5
3.33.63.6
Seattle45.346.348.2
2.02.12.3
San Francisco31.332.134.0
0.60.70.8
Detroit vs MiamiHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Detroit94.889.586.6
11.29.48.6
Philadelphia73.975.074.9
6.46.96.9
Green Bay60.761.663.7
3.2*3.43.8
Tampa Bay vs AtlantaHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
New Orleans88.388.183.5
4.04.03.8
Atlanta3.34.49.8

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

First Round Opponents

Who is going to play who in the first round of the playoffs.   Explain

ByeDetroitArizonaNew OrleansDallasPhiladelphiaGreen BaySeattleSan FranciscoNY GiantsCarolinaAtlantaMinnesotaChicagoWashingtonTampa BaySt. Louis
Detroit50.22.510.03.24.59.04.43.31.21.10.80.60.40.30.00.0
Arizona51.52.57.23.14.75.16.54.31.30.80.70.40.30.30.00.0
New Orleans5.010.07.215.612.112.910.27.72.50.10.10.90.50.50.00.0
Dallas39.43.23.115.68.44.83.42.61.11.51.50.30.30.30.10.0
Philadelphia26.54.54.712.18.45.94.53.21.21.11.10.40.30.30.00.0
Green Bay13.89.05.112.94.85.93.82.60.91.20.90.30.30.20.00.0
Seattle8.54.46.510.23.44.53.81.70.61.00.80.20.20.20.00.0
San Francisco4.23.34.37.72.63.22.61.70.30.90.70.10.10.10.00.0
NY Giants0.61.21.32.51.11.20.90.60.30.20.20.00.00.00.00.0
Carolina0.01.10.80.11.51.11.21.00.90.20.00.00.10.00.00.0
Atlanta0.00.80.70.11.51.10.90.80.70.20.00.10.10.00.00.0
Minnesota0.10.60.40.90.30.40.30.20.10.00.00.10.00.00.00.0
Chicago0.10.40.30.50.30.30.30.20.10.00.10.10.00.00.00.0
Washington0.10.30.30.50.30.30.20.20.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Tampa Bay0.00.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
St. Louis0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0