San Diego Chargers Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.7 to 23.2%
7-4-0   .636

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Baltimore vs San Diego-10.3+5.5+20.8
-0.3+0.2+0.7
-0.8+0.6+1.5
NY Jets vs Miami+3.6+3.2-0.8
+0.1+0.1-0.0
+0.2+0.2-0.0
Buffalo vs Cleveland+1.0-1.9-1.4
+0.0-0.2-0.0
Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati+1.8*+0.1-0.9
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Kansas City vs Denver-0.8+1.3+1.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs New Orleans-0.7+0.9+1.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Houston vs Tennessee-0.1+0.5+0.5
-0.1+0.2+0.2
Green Bay vs New England+0.3-0.3-0.3
Indianapolis vs Washington-0.1+0.2+0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 12/4100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
San Diego vs New England+14.0+2.0-8.8
+0.5+0.0-0.3
+1.2+0.4-0.8
Arizona vs Kansas City+1.5+0.3-1.6
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Denver vs Buffalo-1.0+0.5+1.6
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Miami vs Baltimore-1.0+1.5+1.2
Cleveland vs Indianapolis-1.1-1.1+0.9
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh+0.2+1.4-0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Jacksonville vs Houston+0.5+0.5-0.2
+0.2+0.2-0.1
Minnesota vs NY Jets*-0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well San Diego finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
125-0-0In6621101229,853,549
11.54-0-1In2147111210146,271
114-1-099.6%418194461000217,426,813
3-0-2In221238433287
10.53-1-195.8031384527400845,854
103-2-051.6002511343115200622,840,359
2-1-252.5251234351121,263
9.52-2-112.90011113236163001,793,361
92-3-01.10001522382770869,632,890
1-2-20.60004204127611,714
8.51-3-10.0000522402761,642,160
81-4-00.000004244924590,471,394
0-3-2Out04244923773
7.50-4-1Out00083854548,626
70-5-0Out00124740156,006,302
Total:23.2%12227109121515151002,491,211,616

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well San Diego finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeNew EnglandIndianapolisDenverKansas CityBaltimoreCincinnatiPittsburghMiamiClevelandHoustonBuffalo
125-0-08.2%8707002110110
11.54-0-16.567012324322210
114-1-03.521229959763431
3-0-22.1232231461056442
10.53-1-12.33330126111083531
103-2-01.00214836652310
2-1-20.9214946851310
9.52-2-10.2014212110100
92-3-00.000000000000
1-2-20.100000000
8.51-3-1No00000000
81-4-00.000000000
0-3-2No
7-7.5No
Total:0.7%2.90.76.22.91.42.52.21.90.71.10.50.2
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 11/27100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 34 Chicago 17 +0.0
San Francisco 3 Seattle 19 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Baltimore vs San Diego+1.1-0.6-2.2
NY Jets vs Miami-0.3-0.1+0.1
Kansas City vs Denver-0.1-0.2+0.1
Pittsburgh vs New Orleans+0.1+0.0-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati-0.1-0.0+0.1
Houston vs Tennessee+0.0+0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs Oakland+0.0-0.0-0.1
Buffalo vs Cleveland-0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 12/4100.0*Lottery seed
San Diego vs New England-1.9-0.2+1.2
Cleveland vs Indianapolis+0.1+0.1-0.1
Oakland vs San Francisco-0.2-0.1+0.1
Miami vs Baltimore+0.1+0.0-0.1
Jacksonville vs Houston-0.2-0.0+0.1
Denver vs Buffalo+0.0-0.2-0.0
Arizona vs Kansas City-0.1-0.0+0.1
Detroit vs Tampa Bay+0.0-0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Dallas-0.1+0.0+0.0
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh-0.0+0.1+0.0
Green Bay vs Atlanta+0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
125-0-0561912100111
11.54-0-112014329211920
114-1-0041174154163072000
3-0-221201228113221
10.53-1-100321181134198400
103-2-0000025010727281640000
2-1-225111727301430
9.52-2-1000101110122928144000
92-3-00000000121226302081000
1-2-2000212263120710
8.51-3-10000210273621500
81-4-0000003123037162000
0-3-2031127391720
7.50-4-1005264720200
70-5-00002143932112000
Total:0102022025278810111010106210000