Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances

Beat San Diego 23-20, playoff odds up 16.9 to 37.6%
3-3-0   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/16100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
San Diego 20 Kansas City 23 +15.1
+0.6
+1.2
Jacksonville 24 Cleveland 6 +1.6
+0.1
Denver 42 San Francisco 17 -1.1
-0.1
-0.1
Indianapolis 27 Cincinnati 0 +0.6
Baltimore 29 Atlanta 7 -0.4
-0.0
Buffalo 17 Minnesota 16 -0.2
-0.0
Chicago 14 Miami 27 -0.2
-0.1
New England 27 NY Jets 25 -0.1
Washington 19 Tennessee 17 +0.1
+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Pittsburgh vs Houston+1.4+1.5-1.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Kansas City vs St. Louis+5.2-7.2-13.3
+0.2-0.4-0.5
+0.4-0.5-1.0
Tennessee vs Houston+2.5+1.6-1.5
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Denver vs San Diego+0.8-2.2-1.0
+0.0-0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.1-0.0
Cleveland vs Oakland-0.6*-0.0+1.6
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Cincinnati vs Baltimore-1.3*+0.1+0.6
+0.1*+0.0-0.0
-0.1*-0.0+0.0
NY Jets vs Buffalo+0.8+0.5-0.5
+0.1+0.0-0.0
New England vs Chicago-0.3*-0.2+0.7
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis-0.7*+0.0+0.3
+0.1*+0.0-0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.0
Jacksonville vs Miami+0.6*-0.4-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Kansas City finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1310-0-0In78191020983,227
12.59-0-1In532840156,825
129-1-0100.0%34348023007,570,472
8-0-2In324191822
11.58-1-1100.01024141464048,051
118-2-099.3416152501210026,036,552
7-1-299.351714249121138
10.57-2-195.60374493240145,108
107-3-082.00144324116200051,674,447
6-2-281.90433837162364
9.56-3-152.300111403511100249,619
96-4-026.600014223826810065,334,925
5-3-226.51322392671501
8.55-4-14.900052136279100267,143
4-3-3Out1001
85-5-01.300019263322710054,940,929
4-4-20.8011025342181474
7.54-5-10.00016233726700185,363
74-6-00.0000021128352130031,088,915
3-5-2Out1835302041228
6.53-6-1Out0110364290082,170
63-7-0Out000419423050011,677,381
2-6-2Out4253530669
5.52-7-1Out06384312123,065
52-8-0Out002164432702,787,399
1-7-2Out7318911
4.51-8-1Out0634411723,538
41-9-0Out021540358381,490
0-8-2Out50502
3.50-9-1Out04244923223
30-10-0Out0211464242,340
Total:37.6%233113161513119752100253,530,992

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Kansas City finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeIndianapolisBaltimoreDenverSan DiegoNew EnglandHoustonMiamiBuffaloCincinnatiClevelandPittsburghTennesseeNY JetsJacksonvilleOakland
1310-0-09.3%9700001000000000
12.59-0-17.981221161321000
129-1-06.968332391431100000
8-0-2No7359555
11.58-1-14.63588551838732100
118-2-03.520111166203873210000
7-1-24.3229984192108432
10.57-2-12.23161776223983210000
107-3-01.81151676173663210000
6-2-22.20141210716287321
9.56-3-10.90111254101331100000
96-4-00.50662251111000000
5-3-20.656325111100
8.55-4-10.11100100000000
4-3-3No
85-5-00.0000000000000000
4-4-2No10
7.54-5-10.00000000
74-6-00.000000000000
3-5-2No
3-6.5No
Total:1.1%4.75.96.32.72.57.11.12.72.41.00.60.40.00.00.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/16100.0*Lottery seed
San Diego 20 Kansas City 23 -2.4
Jacksonville 24 Cleveland 6 -0.1
Denver 42 San Francisco 17 +0.1
Chicago 14 Miami 27 -0.1
Oakland 13 Arizona 24 +0.0
Indianapolis 27 Cincinnati 0 -0.0
Washington 19 Tennessee 17 +0.0
Buffalo 17 Minnesota 16 -0.0
Dallas 31 NY Giants 21 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Pittsburgh vs Houston-0.1+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/23100.0*Lottery seed
Kansas City vs St. Louis-0.9+0.7+2.3
Cleveland vs Oakland+0.1*-0.0-0.2
Tennessee vs Houston-0.2-0.0+0.1
Denver vs San Diego-0.0+0.2+0.0
NY Jets vs Buffalo-0.1-0.1+0.1
Cincinnati vs Baltimore+0.1+0.1-0.0
New England vs Chicago-0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1310-0-04335181100200
12.59-0-1262726240140
129-1-05292113800204000
8-0-25273299145
11.58-1-1110131114110379400
118-2-004313105202327101100
7-1-2511695219301021
10.57-2-100243401831284400
107-3-00001134042820211341000
6-2-2013353218191251
9.56-3-100010011132626174100
96-4-000000100431911222213510000
5-3-2132201023241250
8.55-4-100000531426271772000
4-3-3100
85-5-00000001027162424167200000
4-4-2013815242217821
7.54-5-100000310202823124100
74-6-000000000151221252011410000
3-5-2035122021241040
6.53-6-10015152628186100
63-7-00001391926231351000
2-6-2472033191033
5.52-7-1003112530217100
52-8-00002920292412300
1-7-2927182718
4.51-8-10141530301640
41-9-00003142932174
0-8-25050
3.50-9-1310363714
30-10-0003164339
Total:011221104106967776654432211100000