Denver Broncos Playoff Chances

Beat San Diego 35-21, playoff odds up 8.1 to 96.3%
6-1-0   .857

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Denver 35 San Diego 21 +6.0
+2.5
+0.9
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Kansas City vs St. Louis-0.2+0.5+0.5
-0.1*-0.3+0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis-0.3*+0.1+0.2
+0.5*-0.2-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.0
Cincinnati vs Baltimore-0.1-0.3+0.1
+0.8*-0.1-0.4
+0.1-0.0-0.0
Tennessee vs Houston+0.2*+0.2-0.1
NY Jets vs Buffalo+0.2*+0.2-0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland-0.1*+0.1+0.2
Jacksonville vs Miami+0.2*+0.1-0.1
New England vs Chicago-0.1*+0.0+0.2
-0.1*+0.0+0.2
Arizona vs Philadelphia+0.1*+0.2-0.1
New Orleans vs Green Bay+0.1*-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England vs Denver-2.8+0.6+2.3
-2.3-0.6+1.9
-0.6-0.1+0.5
Kansas City vs NY Jets-0.2+0.3+0.5
-0.1*+0.3+0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Miami vs San Diego+0.3*+0.0-0.2
+0.5*+0.2-0.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Cincinnati vs Jacksonville-0.1*+0.0+0.3
Houston vs Philadelphia-0.2*+0.1+0.1
+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Cleveland vs Tampa Bay-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore-0.1*-0.2+0.1
+0.8*-0.1-0.4
+0.1-0.0-0.0
NY Giants vs Indianapolis+0.4*+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.0
Dallas vs Arizona-0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Denver finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-15In1002,964,339*
148-1-0In100014,399,152
7-0-2In10035
13.57-1-1In928070,350
137-2-0In901000030,241,497
6-1-2In937165
12.56-2-1In61334010127,611
126-3-0100.0%50377060035,731,450
5-2-2In5332708247
11.55-3-1100.018412521300127,324
115-4-099.98302572630026,193,488
4-3-2In832286252195
10.54-4-198.91102715341210076,798
104-5-089.50314172927910012,353,779
3-4-292.6613193322795
9.53-5-164.5031414332681028,906
93-6-030.5001741830261120003,757,864
2-5-227.862217282818
8.52-6-17.1020418312813306,408
82-7-01.40101416303015300711,689
1-6-2Out3333333
7.51-7-1Out4163632120771
71-8-00.00000317393560075,566
6.50-8-1Out635352434
60-9-0Out007443891013,192
Total:96.3%5119931042110000000126,880,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Denver finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeIndianapolisBaltimoreNew EnglandSan DiegoKansas CityMiamiBuffaloCincinnatiPittsburghClevelandHoustonTennesseeNY JetsJacksonvilleOakland
14-1522.2%Yes
13.57-1-121.71000000000000
137-2-021.6100000000000000000
6-1-223.0Yes
12.56-2-119.99400111011100000
126-3-018.787113211111110000
5-2-222.78521221122101
11.55-3-114.659226753443220000
115-4-012.3395511976644330000
4-3-212.8394511105555633
10.54-4-18.91089151497865430000
104-5-07.039101414107754330000
3-4-29.56121217126575271
9.53-5-14.408810117554322000
93-6-02.10445532221110000
2-5-2No11116
8.52-6-10.511110111000000
82-7-00.100000000000000
1-6-2No
7.51-7-1No
71-8-0No000000
6-6.5No
Total:16.8%70.42.32.44.53.92.82.22.31.81.51.11.00.00.00.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/23100.0*Lottery seed
Denver 35 San Diego 21 -1.7
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Kansas City vs St. Louis+0.1-0.1-0.2
Cincinnati vs Baltimore-0.1+0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis-0.1+0.0+0.1
New England vs Chicago+0.0-0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Washington+0.0*-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Lottery seed
New England vs Denver+1.2+0.2-1.0
Miami vs San Diego-0.2-0.0+0.2
Kansas City vs NY Jets+0.1-0.1-0.2
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore-0.1+0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Indianapolis-0.1+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
159-0-0991
14.58-0-1982
148-1-094500
7-0-2946
13.57-1-17814800
137-2-0662310000000
6-1-265277
12.56-2-12834303400100
126-3-0173230770060000
5-2-2163725660071
11.55-3-111621212322113000
115-4-0081219214701883000
4-3-217112123661692
10.54-4-11191413150132110210
104-5-0000368171820206910000
3-4-2675198241487
9.53-5-100312111411222211200
93-6-000016104513222515510000
2-5-2622113328
8.52-6-10110044152526156200
82-7-00000011514232518931000
1-6-26733
7.51-7-102102425221231
71-8-0000001381724231572100
6.50-8-13638262133
60-9-00015142325188310
Total:34171367230643121100000000000000