Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 66%
2-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Cleveland 21 NY Jets 17 +0.2
+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Jacksonville vs Tennessee+8.8*-0.1-13.9
+1.3*+0.2-2.0
+0.8-0.0-1.3
Philadelphia vs Indianapolis+1.3*+0.5-1.7
+0.2*+0.2-0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Houston vs NY Giants-0.6*+0.1+0.9
-0.1*+0.3+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Kansas City vs San Francisco-0.3*+0.3+0.5
-0.1*-0.0+0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
LA Rams vs LA Chargers+0.3*-0.5-0.5
Carolina vs Cincinnati+0.4*-0.2-0.4
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh+0.3*-0.2-0.4
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Detroit vs New England+0.2*-0.4-0.3
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Minnesota vs Buffalo+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Baltimore vs Denver-0.0*+0.5+0.1
Miami vs Oakland-0.0*+0.5+0.1
-0.1*+0.2+0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Jacksonville vs NY Jets+8.0*+0.4-10.4
+1.3*+0.2-1.7
+0.8+0.1-1.0
Tennessee vs Philadelphia-1.2*+0.4+1.5
-0.1*+0.0+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Indianapolis vs Houston-0.6+1.4+0.9
-0.1*+0.5+0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
LA Chargers vs San Francisco-0.3*+0.2+0.4
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Atlanta vs Cincinnati+0.3*+0.0-0.4
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore+0.3*+0.3-0.3
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Oakland vs Cleveland+0.3*-0.2-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Denver vs Kansas City-0.2*+0.6+0.2
Green Bay vs Buffalo+0.1*-0.6-0.1
New England vs Miami-0.0*+0.4+0.0
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
LA Rams vs Minnesota-0.0*-0.3+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Jacksonville finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
15.5-16In10011,285*
1513-1-0In100095,097
12-0-2In1001
14.512-1-1In991908
1412-2-0In97200534,320
11-1-2In1005
13.511-2-1In963004,826
1311-3-0In881200001,834,142
10-2-2In92826
12.510-3-1In801810114,898
1210-4-0100.0%6032502004,301,804
9-3-2In6533257
11.59-4-1In45411014031,852
119-5-0100.02241234910007,291,929
8-4-2In193924611119
10.58-5-199.89333391330048,578
108-6-096.621531201711300009,220,655
7-5-297.511730251682161
9.57-6-189.20523291418920054,534
97-7-060.1019266182213410008,824,549
6-6-259.31934511221432140
8.56-7-133.3022119212415510045,456
86-8-012.000100281926211131006,421,465
5-7-29.38132830916386
7.55-8-14.5040161728261340028,390
75-9-01.20100014142528197103,542,598
4-8-21.92812352715252
6.54-9-10.20002112633206112,983
64-10-00.0000031126332151,457,049
3-9-2Out1132475519
5.53-10-1Out002123438144,322
53-11-0Out0004194234434,580
2-10-2Out2525504
4.52-11-1Out01736551,042
42-12-0Out003257387,358
3.51-12-1Out1783133
31-13-0Out079310,943
2.50-13-1Out10011
20-14-0Out1994,039
Total:66.0%1514131276655443221144,320,416

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Jacksonville finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeMiamiCincinnatiKansas CityDenverBaltimoreNY JetsIndianapolisLA ChargersNew EnglandTennesseeClevelandPittsburghHoustonOaklandBuffalo
14.5-1617.7%Yes
1412-2-017.610000000000000000
11-1-240.0Yes
13.511-2-117.010000000
1311-3-017.299000000000000000
10-2-215.4Yes
12.510-3-116.998000000000000000
1210-4-016.092111111111000000
9-3-210.5982
11.59-4-115.186111111111111000
119-5-012.262433343333221111
8-4-29.25924532424543211
10.58-5-110.442555555544432111
108-6-07.417878777765653221
7-5-28.1199757107755653111
9.57-6-15.75888787766653221
97-7-03.51666565444432211
6-6-26.41554954315361141
8.56-7-11.90433343232121110
86-8-00.70111111011011000
5-7-2No112121
7.55-8-10.300001100000000
75-9-00.1000000000000000
4-8-2No2
6.54-9-10.00000000000
64-10-00.0000000000000
3-9-2No
2-5.5No
Total:6.9%28.53.73.63.63.43.63.22.92.72.62.42.21.51.00.80.5
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Jacksonville vs Tennessee-1.6+0.1+2.5
Philadelphia vs Indianapolis-0.2-0.1+0.2
Houston vs NY Giants+0.0*-0.0-0.1
LA Rams vs LA Chargers-0.0+0.1+0.0
Kansas City vs San Francisco+0.0-0.1-0.0
Miami vs Oakland+0.0-0.1-0.0
Carolina vs Cincinnati-0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Lottery seed
Jacksonville vs NY Jets-1.6-0.1+2.0
Indianapolis vs Houston+0.1-0.2-0.2
Tennessee vs Philadelphia+0.1*-0.0-0.2
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore-0.1*-0.1+0.1
LA Rams vs Minnesota-0.0+0.1+0.0
Denver vs Kansas City+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Atlanta vs Cincinnati-0.0*-0.1+0.0
New England vs Miami-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Dallas vs Detroit-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1614-0-01000
15.513-0-1100
1513-1-09910
12-0-2100
14.512-1-19811
1412-2-09442000
11-1-28020
13.511-2-19163000
1311-3-0751212000000
10-2-281128
12.510-3-16218180101
1210-4-036243025002000
9-3-244213222
11.59-4-118263651001400
119-5-05162813221409110000
8-4-271324162326101
10.58-5-1191419285901123000
108-6-00231119121921251113000
7-5-214142011222124712
9.57-6-1004716236581538200
97-7-00011715111510815147310000
6-6-212621135841218911
8.56-7-1002516011891920135100
86-8-0000190002149151817127310000
5-7-226122612231915812
7.55-8-1004000261421221683100
75-9-00010000000259151919159410000
4-8-222661333171542
6.54-9-1000261423251893100
64-10-00000001261320231911410
3-9-2532112116511
5.53-10-100261628261651
53-11-0000015132430216
2-10-25050
4.52-11-10213293620
42-12-00004174039
3.51-12-183260
31-13-0022078
2.50-13-1991
20-14-00595
Total:96958484425243333322222111111000