Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 55.4%
2-2-0   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Indianapolis 41 Tennessee 17 +7.5
+0.6
+0.8
Houston 23 Buffalo 17 -2.5
-0.2
-0.1
Pittsburgh 24 Tampa Bay 27 +0.6
+0.0
Baltimore 38 Carolina 10 -0.4
San Diego 33 Jacksonville 14 -0.3
-0.1
-0.0
NY Jets 17 Detroit 24 +0.2
Oakland 14 Miami 38 -0.2
-0.0
Kansas City 41 New England 14 -0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/2100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Indianapolis vs Baltimore+10.1-5.0-12.2
+1.4*-0.6-1.6
+0.8-0.4-1.0
Dallas vs Houston+2.7*-2.7-3.7
+0.3*+0.4-0.4
+0.2-0.1-0.3
Denver vs Arizona-0.7*+2.0+0.8
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
-0.0*+0.2+0.1
San Francisco vs Kansas City+0.7*+0.9-0.7
+0.1*+0.3-0.1
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh+0.6*+0.5-0.4
San Diego vs NY Jets-0.3*-0.7+0.6
-0.1*-0.4+0.3
New England vs Cincinnati+0.3*-1.4-0.2
+0.2*-0.4-0.1
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Buffalo+0.2*-2.0-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Indianapolis finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1412-0-0In9826,852
13.511-0-1In98245
1311-1-0In87130061,103
10-0-2In1001
12.510-1-1In732421472
1210-2-0100.0%563660200258,803
9-1-2In1001
11.59-2-1In3245150801,823
119-3-099.9174226210100659,688
8-2-2In501717176
10.58-3-199.4426376197104,287
108-4-096.11153912161330001,120,601
7-3-291.717338825812
9.57-4-182.0022420122414306,300
97-5-064.6011623619211130001,333,849
6-4-269.2318823151513
8.56-5-129.90416192428144106,587
86-6-019.60214031325251341001,141,774
5-5-228.629721729714
7.55-6-15.30502112731194004,641
75-7-03.503001415272816400709,784
4-6-2Out112233339
6.54-7-10.610210313617302,479
64-8-00.3000141633311320316,574
5.53-8-1Out04193730100841
53-9-00.000018294119398,167
4.52-9-1Out01344348225
42-10-0Out0630442020,538
1-9-2Out1001
3.51-10-1Out13335330
31-11-0Out00938532,482
2.50-11-1Out1003
20-12-0Out01782603
Total:55.4%61015116888765432105,758,608

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Indianapolis finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeCincinnatiSan DiegoBaltimoreHoustonBuffaloDenverKansas CityMiamiNew EnglandPittsburghClevelandNY JetsTennesseeJacksonvilleOakland
13.5-1418.7%Yes
1311-1-018.29900000000000000
10-0-2NoYes
12.510-1-119.197000100000
1210-2-016.692111111110000000
9-1-2NoYes
11.59-2-113.1771234222211110
119-3-012.760335644432211000
8-2-216.7671717
10.58-3-110.4306681176754422000
108-4-07.81688101467754432100
7-3-2No1725178178
9.57-4-15.23108111357753432100
97-5-04.1187111046532431100
6-4-27.788238888
8.56-5-11.90537313211210000
86-6-01.20325112210210000
5-5-2No1414
7.55-6-10.4102000000000
75-7-00.210100000000000
4-6-2No
6.54-7-10.10000
64-8-00.000000000000
5.53-8-1No
53-9-0No0
2-4.5No
Total:5.2%15.64.64.06.36.02.73.63.62.21.62.41.60.90.40.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Indianapolis 41 Tennessee 17 -1.5
Houston 23 Buffalo 17 +0.2
San Diego 33 Jacksonville 14 +0.1
San Francisco 26 Philadelphia 21 +0.1
Kansas City 41 New England 14 +0.0
Dallas 38 New Orleans 17 -0.0
Oakland 14 Miami 38 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/2100.0*Lottery seed
Indianapolis vs Baltimore-1.8+0.5+2.2
Dallas vs Houston-0.3+0.2+0.5
Green Bay vs Minnesota-0.0-0.4+0.0
Tennessee vs Cleveland-0.0+0.3+0.0
Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs St. Louis-0.0*-0.1+0.1
NY Giants vs Atlanta-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Washington vs Seattle-0.0*+0.2+0.0
San Francisco vs Kansas City-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Detroit vs Buffalo-0.0*+0.2+0.0
San Diego vs NY Jets+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Denver vs Arizona+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Carolina vs Chicago-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1412-0-09532
13.511-0-19172
1311-1-0731313000
10-0-2100
12.510-1-1591523121
1210-2-030263336002000
9-1-2100
11.59-2-112203871400800
119-3-0314241823320911000
8-2-250171717
10.58-3-104917289601547010
108-4-0012121919111881123100
7-3-2171717881788
9.57-4-1002519164391681350
97-5-000121413101571110128410000
6-4-23188815823
8.56-5-10451110861521168310
86-6-00023110003137121516138410000
5-5-272177729147
7.55-6-10050016142224168200
75-7-0003000001261116191813731000
4-6-211225611
6.54-7-11131022272211310
64-8-00000002512192320135100
5.53-8-10161726271751
53-9-0000141223292281
4.52-9-10373235184
42-10-0000312313817
1-9-2100
3.51-10-1203347
31-11-0183457
2.50-11-1100
20-12-011486
Total:33557865334433333433333222111100