Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 33.8%
1-1-0   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Cleveland 21 NY Jets 17 +0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Philadelphia vs Indianapolis-6.5+1.6+8.6
-0.5*-0.0+0.7
-0.7+0.3+1.0
Jacksonville vs Tennessee-0.5*-0.2+0.7
-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Houston vs NY Giants-0.5*+0.1+0.6
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Carolina vs Cincinnati+0.4*+0.2-0.5
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.0
LA Rams vs LA Chargers+0.3*+0.3-0.6
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Kansas City vs San Francisco-0.3*+0.4+0.5
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh+0.3*-0.1-0.5
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Detroit vs New England+0.3*+0.3-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Miami vs Oakland-0.1*+0.7+0.2
-0.0*+0.3+0.1
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs Buffalo+0.0*-0.2-0.1
Baltimore vs Denver-0.0*+0.7+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Indianapolis vs Houston+7.7-1.5-11.7
+0.6*+0.1-0.8
+0.9-0.1-1.4
Jacksonville vs NY Jets-1.1*-0.5+1.4
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Tennessee vs Philadelphia-0.9*+0.3+1.2
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Cincinnati+0.4*+0.4-0.5
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
LA Chargers vs San Francisco-0.4*+0.8+0.5
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Oakland vs Cleveland+0.3*+0.2-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore+0.3*+0.2-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Denver vs Kansas City-0.1*+0.5+0.1
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Green Bay vs Buffalo+0.0*+0.0-0.1
New England vs Miami-0.0*-0.5+0.0
+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Indianapolis finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1514-0-0In9916,362
14.513-0-1In97338
1413-1-0In97300041,052
13.512-1-1In9550442
1312-2-0In85141010268,222
11-1-2In50502
12.511-2-1In7819122,568
1211-3-0100.0%5534605001,075,138
10-2-2In91911
11.510-3-1100.041391019009,613
1110-4-099.91738234152002,938,074
9-3-2In1044281839
10.59-4-199.67282882450023,303
109-5-094.611126192116510005,780,322
8-4-293.91537151718699
9.58-5-184.103162019261330041,243
7-4-3In1001
98-6-051.1006206192417610008,462,425
7-5-248.214187182713111137
8.57-6-123.5011219232818610053,483
87-7-07.900601717262413410009,346,512
6-6-27.2151141527311131138
7.56-7-11.802001517292714410051,234
76-8-00.60100014122429208107,841,254
5-7-20.813102331248129
6.55-8-10.10003112632216136,711
4-7-3Out1001
65-9-00.0000021126342254,966,124
4-8-2Out313223519978
5.54-9-10.00031333371419,401
3-8-3Out50502
54-10-00.0000042043332,337,688
3-9-2Out38501324
4.53-10-1Out01838527,101
43-11-0Out0032670794,766
2-10-2Out38638
3.52-11-1Out115841,813
32-12-0Out00892183,446
2.51-12-1Out298262
21-13-0Out19925,993
0-12-2Out1001
1-1.5Out1005,156*
Total:33.8%356856777877765444,320,416

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Indianapolis finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeMiamiCincinnatiJacksonvilleKansas CityDenverBaltimoreNY JetsLA ChargersNew EnglandTennesseeClevelandPittsburghHoustonOaklandBuffalo
14.5-1513.8%Yes
1413-1-014.21000000000
13.512-1-114.51000
1312-2-013.799000000000000000
11-1-2NoYes
12.511-2-114.79710000000000000
1211-3-012.289111111111010000
10-2-218.2Yes
11.510-3-111.180322222211111000
1110-4-08.855545444433232111
9-3-210.3543513555533
10.59-4-17.235868666544342111
109-5-04.8129810877655443211
8-4-23.068914766555476311
9.58-5-13.539810877655443211
7-4-3NoYes
98-6-02.00655555433232111
7-5-21.5141757325214111
8.57-6-11.00322322222111000
87-7-00.30110111111000000
6-6-2No1111121
7.56-7-10.1000000000000000
76-8-00.0000000000000000
5-7-2No1
6.55-8-1No000000000
4-7-3No
65-9-00.0000000000000
4-8-2No
5.54-9-1No0
3-8-3No
54-10-0No0
3-9-2No
1-4.5No
Total:2.1%8.22.82.52.92.62.32.42.11.71.61.11.41.00.40.50.3
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Cleveland 21 NY Jets 17 +0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Philadelphia vs Indianapolis+1.7-0.5-2.2
Carolina vs Cincinnati+0.1-0.1-0.1
Jacksonville vs Tennessee+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Dallas+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Washington vs Green Bay-0.0*-0.0+0.1
LA Rams vs LA Chargers-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Buffalo+0.0+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs New Orleans-0.0-0.1+0.0
Detroit vs New England+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Lottery seed
Indianapolis vs Houston-1.7+0.2+2.6
Jacksonville vs NY Jets+0.1+0.0-0.1
Oakland vs Cleveland-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore+0.0+0.1-0.0
Atlanta vs Cincinnati+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Tennessee vs Philadelphia+0.0*-0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs New Orleans-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Dallas vs Detroit-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Green Bay vs Buffalo+0.0*-0.0-0.1
LA Chargers vs San Francisco+0.0-0.1-0.0
Denver vs Kansas City+0.0-0.1-0.0
LA Rams vs Minnesota-0.0*-0.1+0.0
New England vs Miami+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1514-0-09901
14.513-0-1973
1413-1-09243000
13.512-1-190550
1312-2-070151401010
11-1-25050
12.511-2-1601818012
1211-3-030253236005000
10-2-245459
11.510-3-1152534510019000
1110-4-03142315212401412000
9-3-2103113235153
10.59-4-1071116235802045000
109-5-00129141217213815151000
8-4-2132191813289186
9.58-5-1003412165712215123000
7-4-3100
98-6-000015101015910181710310000
7-5-211471125982020931
8.57-6-10013901181122221461000
87-7-00001600011410151918138310000
6-6-211411127172120165211
7.56-7-100200000271522231783100
76-8-000100000012510151919159410000
5-7-21257211914151052
6.55-8-10000261522241893000
4-7-3100
65-9-00000001271320231911410
4-8-23412311918123
5.54-9-1000271827261551
3-8-35050
54-10-0000015132530206
3-9-288252929
4.53-10-100312303718
43-11-000004174040
2-10-25050
3.52-11-10053460
32-12-00022078
2.51-12-1793
21-13-00595
0-12-2100
1.50-13-1100
10-14-0199
Total:12324344324244444443344333333221