Houston Texans Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.7 to 33.2%
5-5-0   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 11/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Oakland 24 Kansas City 20 +1.5
+0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Houston vs Cincinnati+10.6-5.7-16.7
+0.4-0.3-0.6
+0.9-0.6-1.4
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville-1.7+7.2+9.5
-0.1+0.3+0.4
-0.1+0.4+0.6
Denver vs Miami+0.6-2.5-0.8
-0.0-0.1+0.0
+0.0-0.2-0.0
New Orleans vs Baltimore+1.4-0.8-0.9
+0.1-0.0-0.0
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Atlanta vs Cleveland+1.0-0.8-0.9
+0.1-0.1-0.1
San Diego vs St. Louis-0.2-0.4+0.7
-0.0-0.0+0.1
New England vs Detroit-0.2-0.2+0.3
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Buffalo vs NY Jets-0.1-0.2+0.2
-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Houston vs Tennessee+5.6-8.2-19.5
+0.2-0.3-0.7
+0.5-0.8-1.6
Indianapolis vs Washington-2.0+5.7+6.1
-0.1+0.2+0.3
-0.1+0.4+0.4
Kansas City vs Denver-0.6-2.4+0.8
+0.0-0.1-0.0
-0.0-0.2+0.0
NY Jets vs Miami+2.4-0.6-0.6
+0.1*-0.0-0.0
+0.2-0.0-0.0
Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati+1.2+1.3-0.7
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Buffalo vs Cleveland+0.7-1.1-0.7
+0.0-0.2-0.0
Baltimore vs San Diego-0.1-1.6+0.3
+0.0-0.2-0.0
Pittsburgh vs New Orleans-0.5-0.1+0.8
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Green Bay vs New England+0.2-0.2-0.2
+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Houston finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
116-0-0100.0%18452241000634,752,619
10.55-0-199.201245251171002,619,406
105-1-094.3041627262250002,750,160,661
4-0-296.10423331916404,469
9.54-1-151.20236212241861009,049,800
3-0-333.33333333
94-2-021.100012182531174004,433,955,464
3-1-226.20171825301540011,524
8.53-2-18.6090018263518311,126,391
2-1-39.1993636911
83-3-01.3010003193931603,350,800,295
2-2-22.22004193930610,377
7.52-3-10.8100112454106,040,713
1-2-3Out3333333
72-4-00.0000074448101,261,900,384
1-3-20.1006464613,656
6.51-4-10.00001481501,468,245
61-5-0Out0010721700228,552,400
0-4-2Out1369181414
5.50-5-1Out1643420129,318
50-6-0Out01662212016,770,503
Total:33.2%135116710121113138000012,707,356,656

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Houston finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeNew EnglandIndianapolisDenverKansas CityMiamiPittsburghBaltimoreCincinnatiClevelandSan DiegoBuffaloTennesseeNY Jets
116-0-06.4%64163464433200
10.55-0-13.31241491215985561
105-1-02.5442181210109654100
4-0-22.95516913131096551
9.54-1-11.304551095532300
3-0-3No33
94-2-00.50232332221100
3-1-20.523254331110
8.53-2-10.210122111000
2-1-3No9
83-3-00.000000000000
2-2-20.00010000000
7.52-3-10.00000000000
1-2-3No
72-4-00.00000000000
1-3-2No000
6.51-4-10.00000000000
5-6No
Total:1.1%4.01.65.82.74.03.63.33.02.01.71.30.20.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 11/20100.0*Lottery seed
Oakland 24 Kansas City 20 -0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Houston vs Cincinnati-1.6-0.5+2.6
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville+0.2-1.0-1.3
Buffalo vs NY Jets+0.0-0.1-0.1
Denver vs Miami-0.0+0.1+0.0
San Diego vs St. Louis+0.0-0.1-0.1
Atlanta vs Cleveland-0.1-0.0+0.1
San Francisco vs Washington+0.0-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs Green Bay+0.1-0.0-0.0
New Orleans vs Baltimore-0.1-0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Arizona+0.1-0.1-0.1
Chicago vs Tampa Bay+0.0-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/27100.0*Lottery seed
Houston vs Tennessee-0.9+0.1+3.1
Indianapolis vs Washington+0.3-0.8-0.8
Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati-0.2-0.0+0.1
NY Jets vs Miami-0.2-0.0+0.1
Kansas City vs Denver+0.0+0.1-0.0
San Francisco vs Seattle+0.0-0.1-0.0
Detroit vs Chicago-0.0-0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs New Orleans+0.0-0.1-0.1
St. Louis vs Oakland+0.0-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs Carolina+0.0-0.1-0.1
Atlanta vs Arizona+0.1-0.0-0.0
Buffalo vs Cleveland-0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
116-0-00183437154550000
10.55-0-10012935254761100
105-1-0000411527032371422100000
4-0-20412233021751112100
9.54-1-10023510221011191451000
3-0-3333333
94-2-00000112010701617262071000
3-1-20162107016162518710
8.53-2-107200000415292813200
2-1-39274599
83-3-0011000000021030361740000
2-2-211000110293617400
7.52-3-10000172738215000
1-2-33367
72-4-0000001723342581000
1-3-2018233325810
6.51-4-10000519332812200
61-5-000021128341951000
0-4-20393233185
5.50-5-1001620332811200
50-6-0000314333314200
Total:0103141011526012610101011743110000000