Houston Texans Playoff Chances

Lost to Pittsburgh 23-30, playoff odds down 15.6 to 16.5%
3-4-0   .429

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/16100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Pittsburgh 30 Houston 23 -12.5
-0.3
-0.9
Jacksonville 24 Cleveland 6 +1.7
+0.0
+0.1
Indianapolis 27 Cincinnati 0 -0.8
-0.1
-0.1
San Diego 20 Kansas City 23 -0.6
+0.0
-0.1
Denver 42 San Francisco 17 -0.6
-0.0
Baltimore 29 Atlanta 7 -0.5
-0.0
-0.0
Chicago 14 Miami 27 -0.3
Buffalo 17 Minnesota 16 -0.2
-0.0
Washington 19 Tennessee 17 +0.2
+0.0
New England 27 NY Jets 25 -0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Tennessee vs Houston-9.0-3.8+6.1
-0.2-0.1+0.1
-1.1-0.3+0.7
Denver vs San Diego+0.4-1.4-0.4
+0.0-0.1-0.0
Kansas City vs St. Louis-0.4*+0.1+1.0
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis-0.4+0.8+0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Cleveland vs Oakland-0.3*-0.1+0.7
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Cincinnati vs Baltimore-0.6+0.3+0.3
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Jacksonville vs Miami+0.6*-0.1-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.0
NY Jets vs Buffalo+0.4-0.3-0.3
+0.1-0.1-0.0
New England vs Chicago-0.1*-0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Houston finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
129-0-0100.0%45323019001,043,157
11.58-0-1100.0133917225307,456
118-1-099.65211724410009,644,643
7-0-2In113014338537
10.57-1-196.307201133264061,750
107-2-084.1029729381420038,536,851
6-1-289.01662846101155
9.56-2-152.3003107323313200209,564
5-1-3In1001
96-3-027.2001332035279100084,610,720
5-2-229.114421372671501
8.55-3-15.8030316333013200382,978
85-4-01.400101622332610100112,679,659
4-3-22.211822312592719
7.54-4-10.3000041835311100415,365
74-5-00.0000001724382640094,521,031
3-4-2Out282438254564
6.53-5-10.00001729481510271,493
63-6-00.0000112423960050,062,565
2-5-2Out312413850294
5.52-6-1Out0228541510105,143
52-7-0Out00645399016,190,861
1-6-2Out84342776
4.51-7-1Out01314620222,608
41-8-0Out08404572,904,958
0-7-2Out623813
3.50-8-1Out22652201,929
30-9-0Out116127253,805
Total:16.5%0112481012131313128310411,928,896

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Houston finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeIndianapolisBaltimoreDenverSan DiegoNew EnglandKansas CityMiamiBuffaloCincinnatiPittsburghClevelandTennesseeNY JetsJacksonvilleOakland
129-0-05.8%7815117133110000
11.58-0-14.2527734103452210
118-1-02.926101445163773320000
7-0-25.44151111161133
10.57-1-11.9716157815566442000
107-2-01.32161767153663320000
6-1-20.6117208814446222
9.56-2-10.801111568232221000
5-1-3NoYes
96-3-00.40662351111110000
5-2-20.88632511211
8.55-3-10.111111000000000
85-4-00.00000000000000000
4-3-2No01010000
7.54-4-10.000000000000
74-5-00.0000000000000
3-4-2No
6.53-5-10.00000000
63-6-00.00000000000
2-5-2No
3-5.5No
Total:0.3%1.03.03.21.21.42.80.61.01.00.50.60.30.00.00.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/16100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 30 Houston 23 +1.9
Jacksonville 24 Cleveland 6 -0.2
Indianapolis 27 Cincinnati 0 +0.2
San Diego 20 Kansas City 23 +0.1
Oakland 13 Arizona 24 +0.0
Dallas 31 NY Giants 21 -0.0
St. Louis 28 Seattle 26 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/23100.0*Lottery seed
Tennessee vs Houston+2.1-0.2-1.4
Jacksonville vs Miami-0.2-0.1+0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis+0.1-0.1-0.0
Cincinnati vs Baltimore+0.1+0.1-0.0
Kansas City vs St. Louis+0.0-0.1-0.0
Dallas vs Washington-0.0-0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Philadelphia+0.1-0.1-0.1
New England vs Chicago-0.0-0.0+0.1
Denver vs San Diego-0.0+0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Buffalo-0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
129-0-07391914200172000
11.58-0-111220191612223300
118-1-00531810720212391000
7-0-23852414319195
10.57-1-10061191001320233300
107-2-00002277032617201051000
6-1-216612261928731
9.56-2-100038107112125175100
5-1-3100
96-3-00000131032185162218931000
5-2-213141207162116830
8.55-3-101100321124271982000
85-4-000000001013918252314510000
4-3-20111391627231551
7.54-4-10000000271827251451000
74-5-0000000000026142326188200000
3-4-202616242616720
6.53-5-100014122529208200
63-6-000000014122227211030000
2-5-2103152025221220
5.52-6-1002102431238200
52-7-00001413263019610
1-6-23113429177
4.51-7-10031431311640
41-8-0000292636224
0-7-215383115
3.50-8-10214373610
30-9-0003194632
Total:00010110142624567887776543221100