Houston Texans Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.02 to 78.8%
2-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
NY Giants vs Houston-6.6*+0.6+4.8
-1.5*-0.1+1.1
-0.7+0.1+0.5
Cincinnati vs Tennessee+0.9*+0.2-1.4
+0.0*+0.1-0.1
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis+0.4+1.3-0.4
+0.1*-0.2-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.0
New England vs Oakland-0.2*-0.4+0.4
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
NY Jets vs Chicago-0.2*-0.1+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Carolina vs Pittsburgh+0.2*+0.1-0.3
Miami vs Kansas City-0.2*-0.2+0.3
-0.0*-0.6+0.0
Seattle vs Denver+0.2*-0.0-0.2
+0.1*-0.3-0.2
Cleveland vs Baltimore+0.0*-0.2-0.1
+0.1*+0.8-0.1
Buffalo vs San Diego-0.1*-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Houston vs Buffalo+6.0+1.3-8.5
+1.6*+0.1-2.3
+0.7+0.1-0.9
Indianapolis vs Tennessee+0.7+1.6-0.8
+0.2*+0.4-0.2
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Oakland vs Miami+0.3*-0.2-0.4
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Baltimore vs Carolina-0.3*+0.1+0.3
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Kansas City vs New England+0.3*+0.2-0.3
+0.1*+0.4-0.1
NY Jets vs Detroit-0.2*+0.1+0.3
-0.0*+0.3+0.1
San Diego vs Jacksonville+0.2*+0.3-0.3
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay-0.2*-0.0+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Houston finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1614-0-0In100017,860
15.513-0-1In991172
1513-1-0In1000156,995
12-0-2In1001
14.512-1-1In10001,381
1412-2-0In98200745,795
13.511-2-1In96406,112
1311-3-0In89110002,177,963
10-2-2In881225
12.510-3-1In81171016,444
1210-4-0100.0%6331501004,356,074
9-3-2In7023744
11.59-4-1In46411012030,107
119-5-0100.0254223461006,316,055
8-4-2In204631394
10.58-5-199.91036359910039,306
108-6-098.2319362014720006,832,821
7-5-299.221736211761124
9.57-6-194.3063132121351037,266
97-7-072.5011532817159310005,610,828
6-6-272.3113771714102183
8.56-7-148.805322102019920026,892
86-8-021.501170310192317820003,516,368
5-7-221.82182525241372255
7.55-8-110.301002821292181014,611
75-9-03.00300027172625145101,672,659
4-8-214.31451010332921
6.54-9-11.1101417302914305,876
64-10-00.100014152931163592,035
3-9-2Out2030302010
5.53-10-10.10003193532101,577
53-11-0Out0016254425152,580
2-10-2Out171733336
4.52-11-1Out01103653302
42-12-0Out004336226,755
3.51-12-1Out168437
31-13-0Out013872,797
2.50-13-1Out1003
20-14-0Out3972,634
Total:78.8%2317151265443322111032,360,768

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Houston finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeCincinnatiBuffaloDenverSan DiegoBaltimoreNew EnglandTennesseeNY JetsMiamiClevelandPittsburghIndianapolisOaklandKansas CityJacksonville
14.5-1620.2%Yes
1412-2-020.0100000000000000000
13.511-2-120.71000
1311-3-019.799000000000000000
10-2-216.0Yes
12.510-3-119.499000000000000000
1210-4-018.594100111100000000
9-3-218.29352
11.59-4-117.387111111111110000
119-5-014.867333333322221111
8-4-211.76621412443132221
10.58-5-112.646554464544432111
108-6-09.622776686855543222
7-5-29.719747596966732244
9.57-6-17.86987797866654222
97-7-05.42776586655543112
6-6-22.46510677748221122
8.56-7-13.50654464333431111
86-8-01.60322132122220000
5-7-2No5242522
7.55-8-10.71111210111100
75-9-00.2000010000000000
4-8-2No555
6.54-9-10.1000000000000
64-10-00.0000000000000
3-9-2No
5.53-10-1No0
2-5No
Total:10.5%40.33.83.63.23.04.13.23.52.62.62.82.21.40.70.80.9
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
NY Giants vs Houston+1.6-0.1-1.1
Cincinnati vs Tennessee-0.1-0.1+0.2
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis-0.1-0.2+0.1
New England vs Oakland+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Denver-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Miami vs Kansas City+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Houston vs Buffalo-1.3-0.1+1.9
Indianapolis vs Tennessee-0.1-0.2+0.2
Oakland vs Miami-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Kansas City vs New England-0.0*-0.1+0.0
San Diego vs Jacksonville+0.0*-0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Detroit+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1614-0-010000
15.513-0-1991
1513-1-09900
12-0-2100
14.512-1-19910
1412-2-09622000
13.511-2-191540
1311-3-07910110000
10-2-2682012
12.510-3-1631917010
1210-4-0402329250001000
9-3-241302027
11.59-4-117293471001200
119-5-0718291321240601000
8-4-2713361027421
10.58-5-1010122427790721000
108-6-003414221418295712000
7-5-22610231319210661
9.57-6-1006624239391035100
97-7-0001213181416989963100000
6-6-2110231425107101152
8.56-7-10056260219614151041000
86-8-000121400031371114141394200000
5-7-224152115151859114
7.55-8-10010000261320221682000
75-9-000300000012591317181610520000
4-8-2145141914101410
6.54-9-110027162324168200
64-10-0000001371320231911410
3-9-210101030201010
5.53-10-1000391927251230
53-11-000015142629195
2-10-2176717
4.52-11-10413313417
42-12-0015194035
3.51-12-1142759
31-13-0032473
2.50-13-1100
20-14-00694
Total:15811610685323222222221111111100000