Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances

Beat Atlanta 24-10, playoff odds up 13.9 to 70.6%
2-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Cincinnati 24 Atlanta 10 +6.5
+0.8
+0.7
Cleveland 26 New Orleans 24 -1.0
-0.1
-0.1
Baltimore 26 Pittsburgh 6 +0.9
+0.1
+0.1
Tennessee 10 Dallas 26 +0.5
+0.1
Minnesota 7 New England 30 -0.4
Green Bay 31 NY Jets 24 +0.4
+0.0
San Diego 30 Seattle 21 -0.2
-0.0
Washington 41 Jacksonville 10 +0.2
+0.0
Oakland 14 Houston 30 -0.1
Denver 24 Kansas City 17 -0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Indianapolis vs Philadelphia-0.3*-0.7+0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Cincinnati vs Tennessee+6.9-2.8-11.1
+1.2-1.6-2.0
+0.7*-0.2-1.1
Carolina vs Pittsburgh+0.7*+2.3-1.3
+0.1*+0.2-0.1
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
NY Jets vs Chicago-0.4*-1.1+0.4
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Miami vs Kansas City-0.3*+0.9+0.4
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
New England vs Oakland-0.2*-0.5+0.4
-0.0*+1.1+0.1
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cleveland vs Baltimore+0.2*+1.2-0.3
+0.1*+0.6-0.1
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Seattle vs Denver+0.2*-0.2-0.3
+0.1*-0.5-0.1
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis+0.2*-0.7-0.2
NY Giants vs Houston+0.2*-0.1-0.2
+0.2*+0.5-0.2
Buffalo vs San Diego-0.1*+0.4+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Cincinnati finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
15.5-16In1001,882*
1513-1-0In100015,885
14.512-1-1In991141
1412-2-0In9730085,190
11-1-2In1001
13.511-2-1In97300730
1311-3-0In8712000279,805
10-2-2In1001
12.510-3-1In8117112,294
1210-4-0100.0%613250300623,553
9-3-2In534715
11.59-4-1In454091604,613
119-5-0100.02340223101001,006,974
8-4-2In17501381324
10.58-5-199.8103230718306,483
108-6-097.33163117201120001,210,610
7-5-293.17717173114729
9.57-6-190.105222220218106,948
97-7-065.3011024921201131001,101,287
6-6-269.23519151584426
8.56-7-132.50216213262512305,562
86-8-014.20110031122241882000761,347
5-7-220.020202020205
7.55-8-13.2300282131238203,219
75-9-01.3010002717262515510400,395
4-8-2Out50504
6.54-9-10.2001515302916401,425
64-10-00.100015152931163155,916
3-9-2Out1002
5.53-10-1Out416363211499
53-11-0Out001724422743,742
2-10-2Out1001
4.52-11-1Out19414887
42-12-0Out00431658,230
3.51-12-1Out188211
31-13-0Out01089972
20-14-0Out298508
Total:70.6%171513108765443221105,728,416

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Cincinnati finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeHoustonBuffaloDenverSan DiegoBaltimoreNew EnglandTennesseeNY JetsMiamiClevelandIndianapolisPittsburghOaklandKansas CityJacksonville
14.5-1619.4%Yes
1412-2-018.9100000000000000
11-1-2NoYes
13.511-2-115.910000
1311-3-018.499000000000000000
10-2-2NoYes
12.510-3-118.89800000000000000
1210-4-017.092111111111000000
9-3-220.0Yes
11.59-4-115.084212211111111000
119-5-013.463333343323222111
8-4-24.267848444
10.58-5-111.142656555544333111
108-6-08.419888786655544222
7-5-210.31431471410737373
9.57-6-16.25999786755644222
97-7-04.21777565644433111
6-6-27.7412884884484
8.56-7-11.80433333322221101
86-8-00.90221111211010000
5-7-2No20
7.55-8-10.20000000000000
75-9-00.1000000000000000
4-8-2No
6.54-9-1No000
64-10-00.000000000000
3-9-2No
2-5.5No
Total:8.2%32.33.83.73.83.33.63.13.32.52.52.42.11.70.80.80.9
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/11100.0*Lottery seed
Cincinnati 24 Atlanta 10 -1.5
Baltimore 26 Pittsburgh 6 -0.2
Cleveland 26 New Orleans 24 +0.1
Carolina 24 Detroit 7 -0.0
Green Bay 31 NY Jets 24 -0.0
Washington 41 Jacksonville 10 +0.0
San Diego 30 Seattle 21 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Indianapolis vs Philadelphia-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs Tennessee-1.3+0.6+2.1
New England vs Oakland-0.0+0.2+0.0
Miami vs Kansas City+0.0-0.1-0.0
Carolina vs Pittsburgh-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Cleveland vs Baltimore-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Detroit vs Green Bay+0.0-0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Chicago+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1614-0-01000
15.513-0-1100
1513-1-09900
14.512-1-19711
1412-2-0952300
11-1-2100
13.511-2-1943300
1311-3-07891200000
10-2-2100
12.510-3-1641717011
1210-4-040203025003000
9-3-2332047
11.59-4-11925345901600
119-5-07162912211301011000
8-4-2413252584813
10.58-5-119131925570153300
108-6-00341220111611461012000
7-5-2771071072110147
9.57-6-1005616175713174910
97-7-00012914102712818105100000
6-6-22312812412238
8.56-7-10023122112122119114100
86-8-0001280003391516151284210000
5-7-220204020
7.55-8-103000028162423147200
75-9-000100000025914171715106310000
4-8-225252525
6.54-9-100027172323178300
64-10-0000002510172119148310
3-9-25050
5.53-10-10181726241841
53-11-0000127162527175
2-10-2100
4.52-11-1211284018
42-12-00015183937
3.51-12-192764
31-13-0032275
20-14-0595
Total:1161059473535243332222111111110000