New England Patriots Playoff Chances

Lost to Kansas City 14-41, playoff odds down 27.4 to 25.2%
2-2-0   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Kansas City 41 New England 14 -9.7
-0.9
-0.9
Houston 23 Buffalo 17 +1.1
+0.1
+0.1
NY Jets 17 Detroit 24 +1.1
+0.1
+0.1
Oakland 14 Miami 38 -1.0
-0.1
-0.1
Pittsburgh 24 Tampa Bay 27 +0.8
+0.1
Baltimore 38 Carolina 10 -0.5
San Diego 33 Jacksonville 14 -0.2
-0.1
-0.0
Indianapolis 41 Tennessee 17 -0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/2100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England vs Cincinnati+8.7+2.1-6.3
+0.4*+0.0-0.3
+1.1+0.4-0.8
Detroit vs Buffalo+1.5*+0.0-2.4
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.2
San Diego vs NY Jets+0.3*+0.1-0.8
+0.0*+0.1-0.1
San Francisco vs Kansas City+0.3*+0.5-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh+0.3*+0.7-0.2
+0.0+0.1-0.0
Denver vs Arizona-0.2*-0.2+0.3
Tennessee vs Cleveland+0.2*+0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Houston+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Indianapolis vs Baltimore+0.1*-0.3-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well New England finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1412-0-0In98205,533
13.511-0-1In94636
1311-1-0In841510040,503
12.510-1-1In71272445
1210-2-0100.0%4940101100275,150
9-1-2In1002
11.59-2-1In2950182102,555
119-3-099.91238341051001,126,147
8-2-2In23383813
10.58-3-199.8426421783008,980
108-4-095.119333491041003,058,898
7-3-293.813314433632
9.57-4-187.60222426151030021,223
6-3-3In1001
97-5-058.5008363111815720005,842,782
6-4-258.87323162179468
8.56-5-137.302291517241651035,796
86-6-015.500140161626231120008,049,256
5-5-211.510112922276378
7.55-6-16.707001822322271041,771
75-7-01.80200016203227112008,052,896
4-6-2Out1212313711597
6.54-7-10.40001927372140034,578
64-8-00.1000019273821305,808,139
3-7-2Out4234723373
5.53-8-1Out021739338119,968
53-9-00.00000423462342,946,280
2-8-2Out3244227333
4.52-9-1Out0113433687,714
42-10-0Out003304621996,587
1-9-2Out2060205
3.51-10-1Out11946341,678
31-11-0Out084151202,830
0-10-2Out67333
2.50-11-1Out32572151
20-12-0Out1198021,715
Total:25.2%12512134681011111084136,602,016

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well New England finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeCincinnatiSan DiegoBaltimoreHoustonIndianapolisBuffaloDenverKansas CityMiamiPittsburghClevelandNY JetsTennesseeJacksonvilleOakland
1412-0-09.2%1000
13.511-0-15.6Yes
1311-1-08.6990000000000000
12.510-1-18.3980000001
1210-2-07.689111111111110000
9-1-2NoYes
11.59-2-17.3792232122312100
119-3-05.250557444553321100
8-2-215.46281588
10.58-3-14.0307710666775531100
108-4-02.81010913776886541100
7-3-26.313616133691936
9.57-4-12.2211914766885541100
6-3-3NoYes
97-5-01.308611543652321000
6-4-21.577616666463
8.56-5-10.80648321431210000
86-6-00.40224110210110000
5-5-2No3311111
7.55-6-10.111200011000000
75-7-00.0000000000000000
4-6-2No
6.54-7-10.00000000000
64-8-00.0000000000000
3-7-2No
5.53-8-1No
53-9-0No00
2-8-2No
2-4.5No
Total:0.8%3.22.82.34.11.91.61.22.32.11.01.30.90.30.20.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Kansas City 41 New England 14 +1.8
Houston 23 Buffalo 17 -0.1
NY Jets 17 Detroit 24 -0.1
Oakland 14 Miami 38 +0.1
Pittsburgh 24 Tampa Bay 27 -0.1
Minnesota 41 Atlanta 28 -0.0
Indianapolis 41 Tennessee 17 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/2100.0*Lottery seed
New England vs Cincinnati-2.3-0.0+1.6
Detroit vs Buffalo-0.1*-0.1+0.2
Green Bay vs Minnesota-0.0+0.2+0.0
Carolina vs Chicago+0.1*-0.0-0.1
San Francisco vs Kansas City+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Indianapolis vs Baltimore-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Denver vs Arizona-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs St. Louis-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1412-0-096220
13.511-0-19236
1311-1-06915150100
12.510-1-155162612
1210-2-024263549011000
9-1-2100
11.59-2-11218428180210
119-3-02101919295100411000
8-2-22338318
10.58-3-103818339170623000
108-4-00118131928545824000
7-3-2139223113336
9.57-4-100251832101510493000
6-3-3100
97-5-0000171819023819136210000
6-4-27181537913121041
8.56-5-10029200105514191573000
86-6-00002120001261317171494200000
5-5-25513913152181713
7.55-6-10060000161422231782000
75-7-00020000001510172019138310000
4-6-214111023291191
6.54-7-1000141121272111410
64-8-00000001491723211572000
3-7-2481929191173
5.53-8-1001717282715410
53-9-000000281826251551
2-8-261218332163
4.52-9-10003123034173
42-10-00001619333011
1-9-220204020
3.51-10-115244327
31-11-0002144143
0-10-26733
2.50-11-152571
20-12-00022178
Total:01112366011244444445555454433211