New England Patriots Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 97.8%
9-2-0   .818

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 11/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England 34 Detroit 9 +2.1
+1.1
+0.3
Oakland 24 Kansas City 20 +0.4
+0.7
+0.1
Atlanta 24 Cleveland 26 -0.2
New Orleans 27 Baltimore 34 -0.1
-0.2
San Diego 27 St. Louis 24 -0.1
Denver 39 Miami 36 +0.1
+0.7
+0.1
Buffalo 38 NY Jets 3 -0.1
Houston 13 Cincinnati 22 +0.1
Minnesota 21 Green Bay 24 -0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Green Bay vs New England-1.6+1.7+1.8
-1.5+0.7+1.7
-0.3+0.2+0.4
NY Jets vs Miami+0.8+0.8-0.2
+0.6+0.5-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs Cleveland-0.1+0.3+0.2
-0.1+0.2+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati+0.2+0.2-0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.0
Kansas City vs Denver-0.1+0.2+0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs New Orleans-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.0
Baltimore vs San Diego+0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.5
Houston vs Tennessee-0.0+0.1+0.0
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Indianapolis vs Washington-0.1+0.2+0.2
Atlanta vs Arizona-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Chicago+0.0*-0.0-0.1
San Francisco vs Seattle+0.1*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well New England finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
13-14In1002,594,195,115*
12.53-1-1In9464,661,600
2-0-3In50502
123-2-0In7622201,993,102,262
2-1-2In7820204,278
11.52-2-1In43451113,534,575
1-1-3In50502
112-3-099.7%842253165000954,689,973
1-2-299.9104329311302,045
10.51-3-198.5113402015101001,096,922
0-2-3In1001
101-4-048.7011394213415300207,781,662
0-3-255.31181631832112320
9.50-4-125.6041507243116300114,832
90-5-01.200100212333614216,282,875
Total:97.8%731551321100005,775,466,464

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well New England finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeIndianapolisDenverKansas CityBaltimoreCincinnatiPittsburghMiamiClevelandSan DiegoHoustonBuffalo
12.5-1427.5%Yes
123-2-026.69800000000000
2-1-226.698000000000
11.52-2-124.68901211221100
1-1-3NoYes
112-3-019.050104565463312
1-2-220.95384554573312
10.51-3-114.5141071210108125723
0-2-3NoYes
101-4-06.1173555583412
0-3-25.3163977643611
9.50-4-13.2023443222300
90-5-00.2000000000000
Total:24.9%87.31.90.91.11.31.00.91.50.70.70.30.4
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 11/20100.0*Lottery seed
New England 34 Detroit 9 -0.7
Denver 39 Miami 36 -0.3
Oakland 24 Kansas City 20 -0.2
Seattle 19 Arizona 3 -0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/27100.0*Lottery seed
Green Bay vs New England+0.7-0.3-0.8
NY Jets vs Miami-0.2-0.2+0.1
Atlanta vs Arizona-0.1+0.0+0.1
Buffalo vs Cleveland+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
145-0-0982
13.54-0-1946
134-1-08317
3-0-28515
12.53-1-1514360
2-0-35050
123-2-03047184200
2-1-23048173200
11.52-2-12411530921
1-1-35050
112-3-0081032178314350000
1-2-2010934209392300
10.51-3-110136342041183100
0-2-3100
101-4-000111291314738122000
0-3-211171612117311031
9.50-4-100415001611252412300
90-5-0000100004173128143000
Total:49248732102110100000000