New England Patriots Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 69.7%
5-2-0   .714

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Denver 35 San Diego 21 +0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
New England vs Chicago+5.6-1.7-11.5
+0.4-0.4-0.8
+0.4-0.2-0.9
NY Jets vs Buffalo+3.2*-0.2-2.3
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.2-0.0-0.1
Jacksonville vs Miami+3.3+1.9-1.5
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
+0.2+0.1-0.1
Kansas City vs St. Louis-0.4+0.7+1.0
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis-0.8*+0.1+0.4
+0.2+0.2-0.1
Cincinnati vs Baltimore-0.3+0.4+0.2
+0.3*+0.0-0.1
Tennessee vs Houston+0.5*+0.2-0.3
Cleveland vs Oakland-0.2*+0.3+0.5
-0.0+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England vs Denver+10.5+3.3-8.7
+1.0-0.2-0.8
+0.9+0.1-0.7
Miami vs San Diego-2.4+0.7+1.8
-0.1*+0.0+0.0
-0.2+0.0+0.1
Kansas City vs NY Jets-0.3+1.0+1.0
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Cincinnati vs Jacksonville-0.2+1.0+0.7
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore-0.5*-0.1+0.2
+0.3*+0.0-0.1
Houston vs Philadelphia-0.3*+0.1+0.3
Cleveland vs Tampa Bay-0.1*+0.0+0.4
NY Giants vs Indianapolis+0.1*+0.2-0.0
+0.2*-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well New England finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
149-0-0In1000564,834
13.58-0-1In881104,073
138-1-0In77212005,101,290
7-0-2In829911
12.57-1-1In4840101032,979
127-2-0100.0%284522410020,353,572
6-1-2In343926193
11.56-2-1100.09364013100112,028
116-3-099.932145264100045,726,639
5-2-2In22048272251
10.55-3-199.606354973000211,861
4-2-3In1001
105-4-093.40221546105100063,533,402
4-3-294.02215471051386
9.54-4-182.50757514124100241,042
3-3-3In1001
94-5-053.5002421818188200056,683,540
3-4-247.5390819211021343
8.53-5-129.802604152621710168,333
83-6-014.2014005172924910032,464,041
2-5-213.213218312591182
7.52-6-14.540162235256071,357
72-7-01.401001826382230011,532,130
1-6-21.5221842332266
6.51-7-10.10011136439016,890
0-6-3Out1001
61-8-00.000021847284002,311,081
0-7-2Out1471147
5.50-8-1Out04394610101,638
50-9-0Out0116473150218,328
Total:69.7%591732356765320000239,350,400

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well New England finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeIndianapolisDenverBaltimoreSan DiegoKansas CityMiamiBuffaloCincinnatiPittsburghClevelandHoustonTennesseeNY JetsJacksonvilleOakland
149-0-011.5%Yes
13.58-0-110.5100000000
138-1-010.798000100000000000
7-0-29.1919
12.57-1-19.8890002211111100
127-2-08.373011542233220000
6-1-25.473126321451
11.56-2-16.3451221294466440000
116-3-05.12425416126677550000
5-2-24.0232351912748676
10.55-3-13.7637522146788650000
4-2-3NoYes
105-4-03.3248623146688550000
4-3-23.626682313551065510
9.54-4-12.6058722124466440000
3-3-3NoYes
94-5-01.703541792144220000
3-4-20.9344168113331
8.53-5-11.01321150022110000
83-6-00.5011630011110000
2-5-2No2153111
7.52-6-10.10002100000000
72-7-00.000010000000000
1-6-2No2
6.51-7-10.000000000
0-6-3No
61-8-00.000000000
0-7-2No
5-5.5No
Total:3.3%13.62.24.53.614.68.73.23.24.74.83.23.10.10.00.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/23100.0*Lottery seed
New England vs Chicago-0.9+0.6+1.8
NY Jets vs Buffalo-0.3+0.0+0.2
Jacksonville vs Miami-0.3-0.2+0.1
Cincinnati vs Baltimore-0.1-0.0+0.0
Cleveland vs Oakland+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Carolina vs Seattle-0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Lottery seed
New England vs Denver-1.6-0.1+1.3
Miami vs San Diego+0.3-0.1-0.2
Kansas City vs NY Jets+0.0-0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Oakland+0.0-0.1-0.1
Cincinnati vs Jacksonville+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
149-0-091800
13.58-0-17712110
138-1-0492720120000
7-0-2364599
12.57-1-1242438210010
127-2-072132132214010000
6-1-25292910261
11.56-2-11820173831301000
116-3-00361632122603210000
5-2-2026143612272
10.55-3-1001619164813430000
4-2-3100
105-4-00002714522156461000
4-3-22912522255551
9.54-4-100165060559106100
3-3-3100
94-5-0000023390116151710410000
3-4-22910036162013400
8.53-5-100161000033112020124100
83-6-0006800014122122167200000
2-5-258149163016731
7.52-6-1130000310202621113100
72-7-0001000013919252213510000
1-6-2229142732115
6.51-7-1000015152728176100
0-6-3100
61-8-0000001615252517820000
0-7-214292929
5.50-8-10312273120610
50-9-000016162627166100
Total:2345107284122355443322110000000000