New England Patriots Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.05 to 40%
1-1-0   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England vs Oakland+6.6*-0.6-11.9
+0.6*-0.0-1.0
+0.7+0.0-1.3
NY Jets vs Chicago-0.9*+0.3+1.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Cleveland vs Baltimore+0.2+1.5-0.2
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Miami vs Kansas City-0.6*+0.7+1.0
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs San Diego-0.5*+0.7+0.8
-0.1*-0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Carolina vs Pittsburgh+0.3*+0.1-0.6
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Denver+0.3*-0.4-0.4
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs Houston+0.3*-0.3-0.2
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Cincinnati vs Tennessee+0.2*+1.1-0.3
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
+0.0+0.1-0.0
New Orleans vs Minnesota-0.0*-0.5+0.1
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis+0.0*+0.8-0.0
-0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Kansas City vs New England-9.9+1.7+8.9
-0.9*-0.1+0.8
-1.1+0.2+1.0
Indianapolis vs Tennessee+0.4+1.7-0.5
+0.0+0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Detroit-0.9*+1.0+1.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Oakland vs Miami+0.9*+0.6-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Baltimore vs Carolina-0.5*+1.0+0.7
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Houston vs Buffalo+0.5*-0.7-0.7
+0.0*+0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay-0.3*+0.9+0.5
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
San Diego vs Jacksonville-0.1*+0.7+0.2
-0.0*+0.2+0.0
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs Atlanta+0.0*+0.8-0.0
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well New England finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1514-0-0In10006,831
14.513-0-1In97358
1413-1-0In9720054,552
13.512-1-1In9550557
1312-2-0In87110020320,601
11-1-2In75254
12.511-2-1In7818132,992
1211-3-0100.0%5829408001,150,810
10-2-2In4545911
11.510-3-1In4136901309,751
1110-4-099.92034173243002,824,631
9-3-2In18232353139
10.59-4-199.7827236316021,087
109-5-094.621120113220510004,999,528
8-4-296.23132592423479
9.58-5-187.00313142730112033,981
98-6-051.30141110262716510006,597,714
7-5-254.6159312415511108
8.57-6-126.001731530281330039,929
87-7-06.1003031022272110300006,596,357
6-6-26.042719272612284
7.56-7-11.10100211243121810034,422
76-8-00.20000016162627165105,015,661
5-7-2Out3611213123580
6.55-8-10.00016193128123022,428
65-9-00.000000141428311742,890,233
4-8-2Out331033411039
5.54-9-1Out015203629810,690
54-10-0Out00162442271,242,708
3-9-2Out7603315
4.53-10-1Out021442423,621
43-11-0Out0053066384,509
2-10-2Out1001
3.52-11-1Out012078872
32-12-0Out00109081,823
1-11-2Out1002
2.51-12-1Out298132
21-13-0Out29810,686
1.50-13-1Out1009
10-14-0Out01003,133
Total:40.0%566599888776554232,360,768

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well New England finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeHoustonCincinnatiBuffaloDenverSan DiegoBaltimoreTennesseeNY JetsMiamiClevelandPittsburghIndianapolisOaklandKansas CityJacksonville
14.5-1515.0%Yes
1413-1-015.6100000000000000
13.512-1-112.910000
1312-2-015.298000000000000000
11-1-2No7525
12.511-2-116.196000110000000000
1211-3-013.587111221100110100
10-2-236.4919
11.510-3-112.178222432211111111
1110-4-09.753554753322321211
9-3-212.84181031053333383
10.59-4-17.934776985533432221
109-5-05.4139991196644433222
8-4-23.815410146163536433131
9.58-5-13.94109101186643432222
98-6-02.21666754322321111
7-5-2No7931244531422
8.57-6-11.00333332211111100
87-7-00.30111111000000000
6-6-2No11111
7.56-7-10.100000000000000
76-8-00.0000000000000000
5-7-2No
6.55-8-10.000000
65-9-00.0000000000000
4-8-2No
1-5.5No
Total:2.9%11.03.23.23.33.93.12.22.01.31.21.61.20.90.80.70.6
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
New England vs Oakland-1.4+0.5+2.5
Cincinnati vs Tennessee-0.1-0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs San Diego+0.1*-0.1-0.1
New Orleans vs Minnesota+0.1+0.1-0.1
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Carolina vs Pittsburgh-0.0-0.1+0.0
Seattle vs Denver+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Miami vs Kansas City+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Kansas City vs New England+2.0+0.1-1.8
Indianapolis vs Tennessee-0.1-0.1+0.1
Houston vs Buffalo-0.0+0.1+0.0
Baltimore vs Carolina+0.0-0.1-0.0
San Diego vs Jacksonville-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Atlanta-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay+0.0*-0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Detroit+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1514-0-09900
14.513-0-1973
1413-1-0943200
13.512-1-190550
1312-2-0731411000200
11-1-2255025
12.511-2-1601818013
1211-3-0312726340008000
10-2-2936459
11.510-3-116263159001300
1110-4-04161915152302133000
9-3-25138152135283
10.59-4-10791718560246600
109-5-0022991092161517350000
8-4-23499168113112331
9.58-5-100331110472022811200
98-6-0000045619101623157310000
7-5-269188222218411
8.57-6-1011603114102122136100
87-7-0000030003391518171495210000
6-6-242161711201910721
7.56-7-10010000371624231572000
76-8-0000000000251015181814105210000
5-7-258151913211361
6.55-8-1000139182423156200
65-9-000000012613192118126200
4-8-2351381818181053
5.54-9-10013112228231030
54-10-00001410202723123
3-9-2727401313
4.53-10-101518343210
43-11-000029253826
2-10-2100
3.52-11-10194049
32-12-00052965
1-11-2100
2.51-12-11288
21-13-0001090
1.50-13-1100
10-14-0298
Total:23333332555465544433333332222111