New England Patriots Playoff Chances

Beat New Orleans 30-27, playoff odds up 10.7 to 87.6%
5-1-0   .833

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/10100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England 30 New Orleans 27 +5.9
+0.8
+0.5
NY Jets 6 Pittsburgh 19 +1.5
+0.1
+0.1
Seattle 20 Tennessee 13 +0.5
Cleveland 17 Detroit 31 +0.4
Buffalo 24 Cincinnati 27 +0.4
-0.1
Baltimore 17 Green Bay 19 +0.4
Denver 35 Jacksonville 19 -0.1
Houston 13 St. Louis 38 +0.1
Kansas City 24 Oakland 7 +0.1
-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Diego vs Indianapolis+0.4*+0.4-0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/17100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
NY Jets vs New England-8.3+1.4+5.2
-1.2*-0.1+0.7
-0.8+0.1+0.5
Miami vs Buffalo-1.0*+0.3+1.6
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Tennessee vs San Francisco-0.6*+0.4+0.7
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Detroit vs Cincinnati+0.3*+0.1-0.4
+0.1*+0.1-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore+0.3*+0.7-0.3
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.0
Green Bay vs Cleveland+0.2*+0.3-0.4
Jacksonville vs San Diego+0.2*+0.5-0.1
Indianapolis vs Denver-0.1*-0.2+0.1
-0.3*-0.2+0.4
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Kansas City vs Houston-0.0*+0.1+0.2
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Seattle+0.1*+0.5-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well New England finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1510-0-0In946016,678
14.59-0-1In85151,151
149-1-0In73261123,084
8-0-2In841637
13.58-1-1In514817,696
7-0-3In1001
138-2-0In36587000404,089
7-1-2In35605205
12.57-2-1In14721300022,235
6-1-3In50502
127-3-0100.0%761292100772,351
6-2-2In66130110509
11.56-3-1In1534031236,739
5-2-3In57437
116-4-099.802750143500942,603
5-3-299.91295112350785
10.55-4-199.201749182121038,159
4-3-3In294314147
105-5-092.50430382197100772,512
4-4-293.73314011961630
9.54-5-182.611837126153026,078
3-4-3In2244339
94-6-051.9043401324176100430,818
3-5-249.943313261761347
8.53-6-129.11190928281330011,481
2-5-3Out1001
83-7-010.9010151931249200161,422
2-6-25.7511023301994105
7.52-7-12.60202122831185103,098
1-6-3Out1001
72-8-00.7010004163230143039,275
1-7-2Out7143636714
6.51-8-1Out021022382251521
61-9-00.00031635341205,537
5.50-9-1Out7223831245
50-10-0Out0429578648
Total:87.6%82827162753211000003,818,880

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well New England finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeKansas CityDenverIndianapolisCincinnatiMiamiTennesseeBaltimoreClevelandNY JetsSan DiegoBuffaloPittsburghOaklandHoustonJacksonville
1510-0-011.8%1000
14.59-0-111.8Yes
149-1-011.49900000000000000
8-0-25.4Yes
13.58-1-111.3990000000000000
7-0-3NoYes
138-2-010.293010122100000000
7-1-28.8950111000
12.57-2-19.38601014311110000
6-1-3NoYes
127-3-08.368131286322110100
6-2-27.567132368322211
11.56-3-17.5542423119432210100
5-2-314.357141414
116-4-05.828610561512543321100
5-3-25.4295955161354331020
10.55-4-15.21781266181254432110
4-3-3No291414141414
105-5-03.74152176159433321100
4-4-23.83132375161142222020
9.54-5-13.0114207613742321010
3-4-311.12222111133
94-6-01.7013183352211100000
3-5-21.412195353111101
8.53-6-10.9710223111000000
2-5-3No
83-7-00.345000000000000
2-6-2No321
7.52-7-1No11000000000
1-6-3No
72-8-00.0000000000
1-7-2No
6.51-8-1No
61-9-0No0
5-5.5No
Total:5.8%36.36.610.13.33.89.56.73.22.12.01.71.00.40.90.20.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/10100.0*Lottery seed
New England 30 New Orleans 27 -1.1
NY Jets 6 Pittsburgh 19 -0.1
Seattle 20 Tennessee 13 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Diego vs Indianapolis-0.1-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/17100.0*Lottery seed
NY Jets vs New England+1.5-0.1-0.9
Miami vs Buffalo+0.2-0.1-0.3
Indianapolis vs Denver+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Detroit vs Cincinnati-0.1-0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore-0.0-0.1+0.0
Kansas City vs Houston+0.0-0.0-0.1
Jacksonville vs San Diego-0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1510-0-093260
14.59-0-182315
149-1-063102601
8-0-2768143
13.58-1-14194801
7-0-3100
138-2-0211455370000
7-1-221135825
12.57-2-178657130000
6-1-35050
127-3-0254416281201000
6-2-2254714291110
11.56-3-1012824364301020
5-2-3431443
116-4-00091837121403050000
5-3-21919371412021500
10.55-4-1011524251811112110
4-3-32929141414
105-5-000310203441115361000
4-4-23112033611153610
9.54-5-1011172611011214134100
3-4-3224433
94-6-00042113005914161151000
3-5-20417165816171052
8.53-6-1161300961622178200
2-5-3100
83-7-0037011391621191252000
2-6-223111101426251232
7.52-7-100200141221252011310
1-6-3100
72-8-000100014101823221462000
1-7-2721292977
6.51-8-1014122128191041
61-9-0000141120272211410
5.50-9-142713291692
50-10-0021025332091
Total:5319918813310523221111000000000000