New York Jets Playoff Chances

Lost to Cleveland 17-21, playoff odds down 10.6 to 36.2%
1-2-0   .333

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Cleveland 21 NY Jets 17 -9.8
-1.2
-1.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Miami vs Oakland-0.8*+1.0+1.6
-0.1*+0.2+0.3
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Detroit vs New England+1.1*-0.0-1.1
+0.1*-0.2-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
LA Rams vs LA Chargers+0.4+1.5-0.7
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Carolina vs Cincinnati+0.5*+0.0-0.5
+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh+0.4*+0.6-0.6
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Kansas City vs San Francisco-0.3*-0.4+0.5
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Indianapolis+0.4*+0.3-0.5
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Buffalo+0.3*+0.4-0.5
+0.0*+0.3-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Houston vs NY Giants-0.2*-0.5+0.2
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Baltimore vs Denver-0.1*+0.4+0.2
-0.0+0.4+0.0
Jacksonville vs Tennessee+0.0*+0.1-0.1
-0.0*+0.3+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Jacksonville vs NY Jets-8.8+2.1+11.4
-1.0*+0.3+1.3
-0.9+0.3+1.2
New England vs Miami+0.6*+0.6-0.6
+0.2*-0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Cincinnati+0.5*+0.9-0.5
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.0
LA Chargers vs San Francisco-0.4*+0.1+0.6
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Green Bay vs Buffalo+0.3*+0.7-0.5
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Tennessee vs Philadelphia-0.3*+0.7+0.4
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore+0.3*+0.6-0.3
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Oakland vs Cleveland+0.3*-0.1-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Indianapolis vs Houston-0.2*+0.3+0.2
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Denver vs Kansas City-0.0*-0.1+0.0
+0.0*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NY Jets finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1413-0-0In9730024,082
13.512-0-1In937184
1312-1-0In86120020224,669
11-0-2In1001
12.511-1-1In78161051,952
1211-2-0100.0%5630509001,097,301
10-1-2In50506
11.510-2-1In4236801408,699
1110-3-099.91834193233003,240,211
9-2-2In15302226727
10.59-3-199.57272572860023,245
109-4-094.411022142819510006,460,553
8-3-295.211133132017583
9.58-4-183.403151920271330041,703
98-5-050.0005157222617610009,197,280
7-4-255.991672427107118
8.57-5-123.201121923281861052,677
87-6-06.800502718272413410009,603,896
6-5-25.66723262674125
7.56-6-12.00200151729271441047,896
5-5-3Out1002
76-7-00.50100014132529207107,446,269
5-6-2Out3142634156298
6.55-7-10.10003112732206131,487
65-8-00.00000031126342154,296,194
4-7-2Out2132432161362
5.54-8-1Out0031433361415,064
54-9-00.0000042042331,817,771
3-8-2Out7573614
4.53-9-1Out01939525,146
43-10-0Out0032572551,199
2-9-2Out33673
3.52-10-1Out014851,108
32-11-0Out0793113,078
2.51-11-1Out496137
21-12-0Out19913,818
1.50-12-1Out1008
10-13-0Out01004,250
Total:36.2%356788888877654344,320,416

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the NY Jets finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeMiamiCincinnatiJacksonvilleKansas CityDenverBaltimoreIndianapolisLA ChargersNew EnglandTennesseeClevelandPittsburghHoustonOaklandBuffalo
1413-0-018.6%1000000000000
13.512-0-120.1Yes
1312-1-017.798000000000000000
11-0-2YesYes
12.511-1-117.79400111110010000
1211-2-015.886112111210111100
10-1-216.750171717
11.510-2-115.577224222211211100
1110-3-011.552546544432332210
9-2-218.544441119477
10.59-3-19.534768666643543210
109-4-06.7121089877654543221
8-3-28.41212101161772685222
9.58-4-15.231089877554543221
98-5-02.90656545332332110
7-4-21.7858345533332112
8.57-5-11.40233322221111100
87-6-00.40011111110000000
6-5-2No11122
7.56-6-10.100000000000000
5-5-3No
76-7-00.0000000000000000
5-6-2No
6.55-7-1No0000000000
65-8-00.0000000000000
4-7-2No
5.54-8-1No
54-9-0No0
3-8-2No
1-4.5No
Total:3.0%8.33.32.83.22.92.52.52.11.71.21.81.51.00.80.50.2
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Cleveland 21 NY Jets 17 +1.9
If winner is:HomeTieAway
LA Rams vs LA Chargers-0.0-0.2+0.1
Baltimore vs Denver+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Miami vs Oakland+0.0-0.1-0.1
Washington vs Green Bay+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Arizona vs Chicago+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Detroit vs New England-0.0+0.0+0.1
Houston vs NY Giants-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Minnesota vs Buffalo+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Kansas City vs San Francisco+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/27100.0*Lottery seed
Jacksonville vs NY Jets+1.8-0.4-2.3
New England vs Miami-0.1-0.0+0.1
Dallas vs Detroit+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Denver vs Kansas City-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Tampa Bay-0.0*+0.0+0.1
LA Rams vs Minnesota+0.0-0.0-0.1
Tennessee vs Philadelphia-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1413-0-0944300
13.512-0-18587
1312-1-0721412000200
11-0-2100
12.511-1-15919150105
1211-2-032242825009000
10-1-25050
11.510-2-117243148001300
1110-3-04142213181302223000
9-2-2151911194267
10.59-3-1071115214702446000
109-4-00129121013118101815100
8-3-21282211131741255
9.58-4-100341115471223513300
98-5-0000148816111121178210000
7-4-237106331410231372
8.57-5-10013901181122231451000
87-6-00001400021612181917116210000
6-5-22326131122199832
7.56-6-100200000271623231673100
5-5-35050
76-7-000100000013712171917137310000
5-6-2121024291213251
6.55-7-10001271523241782000
65-8-0000000149152121169310
4-7-236101924191062
5.54-8-100281827261441
54-9-00000026152628185
3-8-221362977
4.53-9-10314303617
43-10-000015193936
2-9-26733
3.52-10-1073261
32-11-00032275
2.51-11-11486
21-12-00594
1.50-12-1100
10-13-0199
Total:12323243535365444443333333222211