Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.6 to 33.1%
6-5-0   .545

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 11/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Denver 39 Miami 36 -16.2
-1.4
-0.9
Oakland 24 Kansas City 20 +2.0
+0.3
+0.1
New Orleans 27 Baltimore 34 -1.5
-0.1
-0.1
Atlanta 24 Cleveland 26 -1.1
-0.1
-0.1
New England 34 Detroit 9 -0.8
-0.4
-0.1
Buffalo 38 NY Jets 3 -0.3
-0.0
Indianapolis 23 Jacksonville 3 -0.3
-0.0
Houston 13 Cincinnati 22 -0.3
-0.0
San Diego 27 St. Louis 24 -0.2
-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
NY Jets vs Miami-23.8-15.5+5.5
-1.2-0.9+0.3
-1.6-0.9+0.4
Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati+2.8+3.3-1.4
+0.1+0.2-0.0
+0.1+0.2-0.1
Baltimore vs San Diego-0.6-3.4+1.2
-0.0-0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.2-0.0
Kansas City vs Denver-1.8+1.6+2.5
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs New Orleans-0.9-0.6+1.5
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Buffalo vs Cleveland+0.7-1.6-1.0
+0.0-0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.2-0.0
Green Bay vs New England+0.6-0.7-0.7
+0.2-0.3-0.3
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Houston vs Tennessee-0.2+0.9+0.8
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Indianapolis vs Washington-0.1+0.4+0.4
-0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Miami finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
115-0-099.9%62410147120571,218,657
10.54-0-196.0025254334001,947,513
104-1-066.4002219432850002,014,173,621
3-0-269.1022224326502,585
9.53-1-116.00001143734121004,989,585
93-2-02.40000216353213202,205,877,958
2-1-22.300217353212204,459
8.52-2-10.0001827382243,788,835
1-1-3Out50502
82-3-00.0000213343814951,436,342
1-2-2Out02113538142,184
7.51-3-1Out01939511,040,056
0-2-3Out1001
71-4-0Out000533611174,281,335
0-3-2Out630640291
6.50-4-1Out0791292,536
60-5-0Out067122011,792,136
Total:33.1%122111171515141084005,940,648,096

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Miami finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeNew EnglandIndianapolisDenverKansas CityBaltimoreCincinnatiPittsburghClevelandSan DiegoHoustonBuffalo
115-0-07.4%30331548644230
10.54-0-14.125389510975231
104-1-02.60322848774120
3-0-22.80421859864220
9.53-1-10.6015212121000
93-2-00.1001000000000
2-1-20.0011000000
8.52-2-10.0000000000
1-1-3No
82-3-00.00000000000
1-2-2No
6-7.5No
Total:1.6%3.01.510.63.21.83.43.22.81.80.70.80.1
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 11/20100.0*Lottery seed
Denver 39 Miami 36 +1.6
New England 34 Detroit 9 +0.2
Oakland 24 Kansas City 20 -0.2
Atlanta 24 Cleveland 26 +0.1
New Orleans 27 Baltimore 34 +0.1
Buffalo 38 NY Jets 3 +0.1
Seattle 19 Arizona 3 +0.1
San Francisco 17 Washington 13 +0.0
NY Giants 28 Dallas 31 +0.0
Indianapolis 23 Jacksonville 3 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/27100.0*Lottery seed
NY Jets vs Miami+2.7+1.3-0.6
Green Bay vs New England-0.2+0.2+0.2
Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati-0.2-0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs New Orleans+0.1+0.1-0.2
Kansas City vs Denver+0.1-0.1-0.1
Baltimore vs San Diego-0.0+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Cleveland-0.1+0.1+0.1
Houston vs Tennessee+0.0-0.0-0.1
San Francisco vs Seattle+0.0-0.1-0.0
Detroit vs Chicago+0.0+0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
115-0-0061233712027102000
10.54-0-100214215392583000
104-1-00000221171231151351000
3-0-2002222011321313400
9.53-1-1000001113122828133000
93-2-00000000021722322591000
2-1-20002172133241010
8.52-2-10000212293419400
1-1-35050
82-3-00000001929381940000
1-2-21927392030
7.51-3-1005224126500
0-2-3100
71-4-0001827372150000
0-3-21827342551
6.50-4-1004223927710
60-5-0001622372581000
Total:010201102951257101211874210000000