Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances

Lost to Cincinnati 24-27, playoff odds down 3.5 to 4%
2-4-0   .333

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/10100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Buffalo 24 Cincinnati 27 -4.5
-0.1
-0.9
NY Jets 6 Pittsburgh 19 +0.5
+0.0
New England 30 New Orleans 27 -0.5
Cleveland 17 Detroit 31 +0.3
Seattle 20 Tennessee 13 +0.2
Baltimore 17 Green Bay 19 +0.2
Kansas City 24 Oakland 7 +0.1
+0.0
Houston 13 St. Louis 38 +0.1
+0.1
Denver 35 Jacksonville 19 -0.1
+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Diego vs Indianapolis-0.1*+0.2+0.0
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/17100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Miami vs Buffalo-2.7+0.6+4.3
-0.7+0.4+1.1
Tennessee vs San Francisco-0.3*+0.3+0.4
NY Jets vs New England+0.3*+0.3-0.2
-0.1*-0.0+0.0
Green Bay vs Cleveland+0.2*-0.1-0.3
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore+0.2*-0.1-0.2
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Cincinnati+0.1*+0.0-0.2
Jacksonville vs San Diego+0.2*-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.0
Kansas City vs Houston+0.0*+0.0-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Buffalo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1210-0-0In8522311331,107
11.59-0-1In139313151193
119-1-098.7%01830818241011,694
8-0-2In3333333
10.58-1-197.3112712113631,010
108-2-078.80212127451830073,689
7-1-291.322022443946
9.57-2-160.90510244317105,498
97-3-025.6015119352711200261,669
6-2-227.006020293591211
8.56-3-110.6020929371850017,064
5-2-3Out2020605
86-4-01.7001017213225102000592,818
5-3-21.6018213226910434
7.55-4-10.20021129341950032,330
4-3-3Out2563138
75-5-00.000018233324910892,246
4-4-2Out18203525920709
6.54-5-1Out021130351840039,861
3-4-3Out14431414147
64-6-0Out00021027352150901,754
3-5-2Out2102638195683
5.53-6-1Out00316383310031,651
2-5-3Out4020405
53-7-0Out0041941333605,247
2-6-2Out032040334362
4.52-7-1Out0193747615,520
1-6-3Out1001
42-8-0Out001165824257,884
1-7-2Out1165825134
3.51-8-1Out0857354,504
31-9-0Out01346562,990
0-8-2Out257512
2.50-9-1Out2476513
20-10-0Out5957,118
Total:4.0%00010346810121414131143,818,880

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Buffalo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeKansas CityDenverIndianapolisNew EnglandCincinnatiMiamiTennesseeBaltimoreClevelandNY JetsSan DiegoPittsburghOaklandHoustonJacksonville
1210-0-03.1%60234107244301000
11.59-0-12.24041101444611311
119-1-01.31866122111477411010
8-0-2No333333
10.58-1-11.01178142111595311010
108-2-00.72681420103653110000
7-1-2No2911172074742242
9.57-2-10.5055121682432110000
97-3-00.2023574111100000
6-2-2No3279210000
8.56-3-10.11133200000000
5-2-3No
86-4-00.0000000000000000
5-3-2No00000
7.55-4-10.0000000000
4-3-3No
75-5-00.00000000000
4-4-2No
2-6.5No
Total:0.0%0.10.40.40.71.00.60.10.20.20.10.00.00.00.00.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/10100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo 24 Cincinnati 27 +1.7
Kansas City 24 Oakland 7 -0.1
Tampa Bay 20 Philadelphia 31 +0.1
Baltimore 17 Green Bay 19 +0.1
Cleveland 17 Detroit 31 +0.1
Minnesota 10 Carolina 35 -0.1
NY Jets 6 Pittsburgh 19 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Diego vs Indianapolis+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Washington-0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/17100.0*Lottery seed
Miami vs Buffalo+1.3-0.5-2.0
Kansas City vs Houston-0.0*+0.1+0.3
Jacksonville vs San Diego-0.2*-0.1+0.1
Carolina vs St. Louis-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Detroit vs Cincinnati+0.1*-0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs Minnesota-0.1*-0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs New England+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Green Bay vs Cleveland+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Washington vs Chicago+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1210-0-036381422111313
11.59-0-11201830131511
119-1-0031518128012623110
8-0-2333333
10.58-1-11914131217433230
108-2-00022109316262017400
7-1-222015722202472
9.57-2-1004730221232610200
97-3-00012301217192518831000
6-2-202402182325166200
8.56-3-10110086192722113100
5-2-320402020
86-4-0000000114111822201472100
5-3-20104620252012730
7.55-4-100001412222620114100
4-3-325133825
75-5-00000000251118222013620000
4-4-225112023201262
6.54-5-10015132327199200
3-4-314431429
64-6-00000261422241893000
3-5-2001715212521740
5.53-6-1003102229231020
2-5-3402040
53-7-000001514262918510
2-6-2271325301661
4.52-7-10141631321420
1-6-3100
42-8-00003123136162
1-7-23103935112
3.51-8-1042141276
31-9-0004254525
0-8-2175033
2.50-9-11144441
20-10-0032870
Total:00000000001223344556667777765421