Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.04 to 68.3%
2-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Buffalo vs San Diego+7.3*+0.3-11.3
+1.2*-0.3-1.9
+0.7+0.1-1.1
NY Jets vs Chicago-1.0*+0.0+1.2
-0.1*-0.2+0.2
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New England vs Oakland-0.8+1.3+1.4
-0.1+0.7+0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Miami vs Kansas City-0.6*+0.5+1.0
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Carolina vs Pittsburgh+0.3*-0.5-0.5
Seattle vs Denver+0.3*+0.3-0.3
+0.1*+0.3-0.1
NY Giants vs Houston+0.3*+0.5-0.2
+0.2*-0.0-0.2
Cleveland vs Baltimore+0.2*-0.2-0.3
+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Cincinnati vs Tennessee+0.1*-0.1-0.2
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis+0.1*+0.2-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Houston vs Buffalo-7.1+3.1+10.0
-1.5*+0.3+2.1
-0.7+0.3+1.0
Kansas City vs New England+1.2*+0.1-1.1
+0.2*-0.1-0.2
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Detroit-0.9*-0.1+1.2
-0.1*-0.2+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Oakland vs Miami+0.8*+0.3-0.9
+0.1*+0.2-0.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Baltimore vs Carolina-0.4*-0.7+0.5
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay-0.3*-0.5+0.4
Indianapolis vs Tennessee+0.3*+0.5-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
San Diego vs Jacksonville-0.1*+0.0+0.2
-0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Buffalo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
15.5-16In1009,460*
1513-1-0In100080,895
12-0-2In1001
14.512-1-1In991822
1412-2-0In97300442,247
11-1-2In1003
13.511-2-1In955003,813
1311-3-0In871300001,482,165
10-2-2In821811
12.510-3-1In801811012,180
9-2-3In1001
1210-4-0100.0%5932503003,384,802
9-3-2In56327541
11.59-4-1In4440916024,612
119-5-0100.02140224131005,573,298
8-4-2In133926417190
10.58-5-199.89322872030036,710
108-6-096.82152817231330006,827,599
7-5-296.4214281921144111
9.57-6-190.3051921222381039,643
97-7-061.50182110232212410006,320,890
6-6-264.31624529221211126
8.56-7-132.0021331529251130031,735
86-8-011.00070311222619920004,442,596
5-7-220.07131313271510260
7.55-8-12.10200210253121710019,182
75-9-00.70100027172726155102,358,055
4-8-2Out132525251324
6.54-9-10.1001618302813308,505
64-10-00.0000015152931173930,956
3-9-2Out1733338812
5.53-10-1Out01520363082,568
53-11-00.0000016244127265,610
2-10-2Out50504
4.52-11-1Out1134244574
42-12-0Out004306652,192
3.51-12-1Out1207985
31-13-0Out09916,236
2.50-13-1Out1007
20-14-0Out2982,847
Total:68.3%161412998665433211032,360,768

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Buffalo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeHoustonCincinnatiDenverSan DiegoBaltimoreNew EnglandTennesseeNY JetsMiamiClevelandPittsburghIndianapolisOaklandKansas CityJacksonville
14.5-1618.6%Yes
1412-2-018.3100000000000000000
11-1-2NoYes
13.511-2-118.710000000
1311-3-017.999000000000000000
10-2-29.1Yes
12.510-3-117.798000000000000000
9-2-3NoYes
1210-4-016.591111111111000000
9-3-214.68822222
11.59-4-115.384112211111111100
119-5-012.761334433333221111
8-4-214.452674326344111112
10.58-5-110.641557655544332221
108-6-07.717789877665543222
7-5-29.01551098614336452143
9.57-6-15.859910977665543222
97-7-03.71677655444432111
6-6-27.116108414563273321
8.56-7-11.70444332221211111
86-8-00.70111111100110000
5-7-2No2372232
7.55-8-10.1000000000000000
75-9-00.0000000000000000
4-8-2No
6.54-9-1No000
64-10-00.0000000000000
3-9-2No
5.53-10-1No
53-11-0No0
2-10-2No
2-4.5No
Total:7.5%30.13.63.84.43.83.33.32.92.52.42.31.81.31.00.90.8
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo vs San Diego-1.3+0.2+2.1
New England vs Oakland+0.1-0.2-0.2
NY Jets vs Chicago+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Miami vs Kansas City+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Cleveland vs Baltimore-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Cincinnati vs Tennessee+0.0+0.1-0.0
New Orleans vs Minnesota+0.0-0.1-0.0
Carolina vs Pittsburgh-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Houston vs Buffalo+1.4-0.3-1.9
Kansas City vs New England-0.2*-0.1+0.1
NY Jets vs Detroit+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Oakland vs Miami-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Baltimore vs Carolina+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1614-0-01000
15.513-0-1100
1513-1-09900
12-0-2100
14.512-1-19901
1412-2-09433000
11-1-2100
13.511-2-1905500
1311-3-0751112000000
10-2-28218
12.510-3-16119180110
9-2-3100
1210-4-036233025003000
9-3-239173275
11.59-4-11628346901600
119-5-05162614202401111000
8-4-249221724141611
10.58-5-1091121226701643000
108-6-00231216121521491213000
7-5-2241015131811471224
9.57-6-10044151476161768100
97-7-00011710102811112111520000
6-6-2169151413162493
8.56-7-100221103114101920135100
86-8-00001600034101618161274100000
5-7-271327121815107333
7.55-8-100200000271623231672000
75-9-00010000002510161918149420000
4-8-24413132582184
6.54-9-1000138182423156200
64-10-0000012713192118125200
3-9-2882582525
5.53-10-113112128231130
53-11-000001410202723123
2-10-2502525
4.52-11-11516333312
42-12-000029253826
3.51-12-1153460
31-13-0052966
2.50-13-11486
20-14-001189
Total:106957463645354332222211111110000