Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 30.5%
5-3-0   .625

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England vs Denver-2.1-0.8+2.4
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Kansas City vs NY Jets-0.3+0.7+1.5
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore-0.6+1.1+0.3
+0.1*+0.0-0.0
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Houston vs Philadelphia-0.7+0.6+0.7
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Miami vs San Diego-0.2+1.3+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.0
Cincinnati vs Jacksonville-0.3*-0.3+1.0
-0.0-0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Indianapolis+0.4+0.6-0.2
+0.1+0.1-0.0
+0.1+0.1-0.0
Cleveland vs Tampa Bay-0.2*+0.3+0.6
-0.0+0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Buffalo vs Kansas City+13.5*+0.0-11.9
+0.5*-0.0-0.4
+1.1+0.2-1.0
Detroit vs Miami+1.0*-0.3-1.6
+0.1+0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Pittsburgh+1.4+1.2-0.7
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Baltimore vs Tennessee-0.2+1.1+1.2
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Cincinnati vs Cleveland-0.3-0.6+0.3
-0.0-0.1+0.0
Oakland vs Denver+0.7*+0.1-0.2
+0.1*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Buffalo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
138-0-0In8810101,208,456
12.57-0-1In682720308,118
127-1-0100.0%343719290010,902,624
6-0-2In4338105521
11.56-1-1100.01540223191064,211
116-2-098.521530172410100042,076,641
5-1-299.431327183181158
10.55-2-193.40623172423610205,765
105-3-059.4007218232413400088,051,537
4-2-260.70625623241320425
9.54-3-129.90212214302711200350,687
94-4-08.1006027213224810109,019,296
3-3-27.90602922312381635
8.53-4-11.6010021230341730337,960
83-5-00.501000172642220081,470,744
2-4-20.50014294025425
7.52-5-10.000021643380182,993
72-6-00.000003256660035,735,431
1-5-2Out11246410131
6.51-6-1Out0114788051,811
61-7-0Out00364312008,364,977
0-6-2Out712924
5.50-7-1Out16432205,810
50-8-0Out022532230825,600
Total:30.5%13695789121314131000378,864,480

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Buffalo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeDenverIndianapolisNew EnglandBaltimoreKansas CitySan DiegoPittsburghHoustonCincinnatiMiamiClevelandTennesseeJacksonvilleNY JetsOakland
138-0-08.7%99000000000000
12.57-0-18.09501010001000
127-1-06.470244334322110000
6-0-29.5811055
11.56-1-15.3552966443432200
116-2-03.117613121089665430000
5-1-26.316911108101364434
10.55-2-12.3661413128976543000
105-3-01.20588877433220000
4-2-21.60561087963422
9.54-3-10.603444442221100
94-4-00.20110122100000000
3-3-2No10011110000
8.53-4-10.0000000000000
83-5-00.000000000000000
2-4-2No0
7.52-5-10.0000000000
72-6-00.0000000000
1-5-2No
5-6.5No
Total:0.9%4.32.13.63.63.43.23.22.01.61.51.00.90.00.00.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/30100.0*Lottery seed
New England vs Denver+0.2+0.0-0.2
Kansas City vs NY Jets+0.0-0.0-0.2
Seattle vs Oakland+0.0-0.1-0.1
Cincinnati vs Jacksonville+0.0-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Washington-0.0+0.0+0.1
San Francisco vs St. Louis+0.0-0.1-0.1
NY Giants vs Indianapolis+0.0-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/6100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo vs Kansas City-1.8+0.1+1.6
NY Jets vs Pittsburgh-0.2-0.0+0.1
Detroit vs Miami-0.1+0.1+0.1
Cincinnati vs Cleveland+0.0+0.1-0.1
Baltimore vs Tennessee+0.0-0.1-0.1
New Orleans vs San Francisco-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
138-0-05929100100
12.57-0-142262612030
127-1-082624121812080000
6-0-25383355555
11.56-1-12132317211318110
116-2-0023121813161168100100
5-1-231111314162229711
10.55-2-100510131611311221600
105-3-0000016165271493281000
4-2-20151881511123181
9.54-3-10028402592827123000
94-4-000033000215282715510000
3-3-20330011432231661
8.53-4-101100003122528198200
83-5-000000001312232921920000
2-4-2001392031211130
7.52-5-10000292232249200
72-6-000000210243122820000
1-5-22918372671
6.51-6-100212283219510
61-7-0000141529291651000
0-6-28171338214
5.50-7-1016223426920
50-8-00021025322282000
Total:0112336222431210977764321100000000