American Football Conference Playoff Chances

Houston +1.3, Indianapolis -7.1
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsWin SBChance will finish regular season at seed
MondayGW-L-TPCTGD%Change%Change12345678910111213141516Avg.ChangeRPIStrengthThursday
Houston2-0-01.0002778.8%+1.310.6%+0.2231715126544332211104.2+0.118.570Houston Texans
Cincinnati2-0-01.0002171.1+0.48.2+0.0181513108765443221104.9+0.042.557Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo2-0-01.0002268.3+0.37.7+0.016141299866543321105.2+0.031.556Buffalo Bills
Denver2-0-01.0001466.8+0.26.1-0.0121314156665544322115.4+0.0318.535Denver Broncos
San Diego1-1-0.500846.7+0.43.3+0.0579127777766654327.4+0.056.522San Diego Chargers
Baltimore1-1-0.5001341.6+0.63.2+0.05665111098876654327.8+0.065.539Baltimore Ravens
New England1-1-0.5001040.1+0.62.9+0.056659988877655427.9+0.0610.526New England Patriots
Tennessee1-1-0.500036.8+1.12.1+0.045669888877765438.3+0.1027.500Tennessee Titans
NY Jets1-1-0.500-230.5+0.41.6+0.034448898888776538.8+0.0627.494New York Jets
Miami1-1-0.500-628.4+0.41.3+0.023338888888876649.1+0.063.484Miami Dolphins
Cleveland1-1-0.500-128.2+0.51.5+0.034447788888877649.2+0.0831.498Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh1-1-0.500-1720.6+0.30.8+0.0223356778899998610.0+0.0713.457Pittsburgh Steelers
IndianapolisLPhiladelphia 27-300-2-0.000-1014.5-7.10.6-0.41124345667891011121211.2-0.9813.477Indianapolis Colts
Oakland0-2-0.000-219.9+0.10.3-0.00124123456791012151912.2+0.0624.444Oakland Raiders
Kansas City0-2-0.000-239.2+0.20.3+0.00113123456791012151912.2+0.0627.441Kansas City Chiefs
Jacksonville0-2-0.000-488.7+0.50.2+0.00112233456781012151912.2+0.0924.421Jacksonville Jaguars

Data is queried every 30 minutes, takes about 5 minutes for the web site to get up to date.
Currently after games are completed, I don't know who was home.
I do update partial games that aren't tied and update throughout the game.
Complete data dump is done every day at 3AM EST to fix mistakes or games that have been added.
Let me know how things are, if data is wrong: adamv at mad dot scientist dot com.


Last Updated: 9/23/2013 12:15:01 AM

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 9/11
Buffalo 29 Miami 10
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo+10.4
+1.1
Miami-10.6
-1.4
Oakland 14 Houston 30
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Houston+8.6
+1.3
Denver+0.8
San Diego+0.8
Tennessee-1.3
Indianapolis-1.1
Oakland-6.7
-0.4
Kansas City+0.4
Jacksonville-0.6
Baltimore 26 Pittsburgh 6
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Cincinnati+0.9
Baltimore+7.1
+0.4
Cleveland+0.7
Pittsburgh-10.1
-1.1
Tennessee 10 Dallas 26
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Houston+1.8
+0.3
Cincinnati+0.5
Buffalo+0.6
Baltimore+0.5
Tennessee-9.5
-1.4
NY Jets+0.7
Miami+0.6
Indianapolis+1.3
Jacksonville+1.1
Denver 24 Kansas City 17
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Denver+8.5
+0.8
San Diego-0.7
Oakland-0.5
Kansas City-6.2
-0.3
Green Bay 31 NY Jets 24
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Cincinnati+0.4
Buffalo+1.2
+0.2
Denver+0.4
San Diego+0.4
Baltimore+0.6
New England+1.1
Tennessee+0.5
NY Jets-7.5
-0.7
Miami+0.9
Cleveland+0.5
Pittsburgh+0.4
Indianapolis+0.3
Minnesota 7 New England 30
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Houston-0.4
Buffalo-1.0
New England+7.0
+0.4
NY Jets-1.0
Miami-1.0
Cincinnati 24 Atlanta 10
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Cincinnati+6.5
+0.8
Buffalo-0.4
Baltimore-1.3
-0.2
New England-0.4
Tennessee-0.3
NY Jets-0.4
Miami-0.4
Cleveland-1.0
Pittsburgh-0.9
San Diego 30 Seattle 21
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Denver-1.6
San Diego+6.3
+0.5
Oakland-1.1
Kansas City-0.9
Indianapolis 27 Philadelphia 30
Mon100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Houston+1.1
+0.2
Baltimore+0.4
New England+0.4
Tennessee+1.0
Miami+0.4
Indianapolis-5.9
-0.3
Kansas City+0.1
Cleveland 26 New Orleans 24
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Cincinnati-1.0
Buffalo-0.3
Baltimore-0.9
Cleveland+5.1
+0.4
Pittsburgh-0.6
Washington 41 Jacksonville 10
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Houston+1.0
Buffalo+0.3
New England+0.3
Tennessee+0.8
Miami+0.3
Indianapolis+0.6
Jacksonville-5.0
-0.3
Week of 9/18
Buffalo vs San DiegoIf winner is:HomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo75.7*68.357.0
8.9*8.35.7
Denver68.1*66.064.8
6.2*6.46.0
San Diego38.9*49.358.8
2.5*3.34.7
Cincinnati vs TennesseeHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Houston79.7*78.177.4
Cincinnati77.9*69.260.0
9.4*7.56.3
Tennessee29.1*35.749.2
1.5*2.23.0
Cleveland vs BaltimoreHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Baltimore30.6*42.753.9
2.1*3.94.4
Cleveland37.5*28.517.6
2.1*1.50.9
New England vs OaklandHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo67.6*67.669.7
7.5*7.77.9
New England46.7*39.428.2
3.5*2.81.8
Oakland6.7*10.315.6
0.2*0.50.5
Miami vs Kansas CityHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Miami34.6*25.918.3
1.7*1.00.8
Kansas City5.9*10.314.5
0.2*0.40.4
Seattle vs DenverHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Denver60.6*68.074.7
5.2*6.27.3
San Diego48.5*45.444.4
3.5*3.63.1
Carolina vs PittsburghHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Baltimore42.245.640.4
3.2*3.63.1
Pittsburgh16.4*20.628.7
0.6*0.71.1
NY Jets vs ChicagoHomeTieAway
Mon100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo67.3*70.169.5
7.5*6.77.8
New England39.2*40.441.2
2.8*2.73.0
NY Jets36.727.222.9
2.0*1.31.1
Jacksonville vs IndianapolisHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Indianapolis8.7*12.720.4
0.3*0.50.9
Jacksonville12.75.94.6
0.3*0.10.1
NY Giants vs HoustonHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Houston72.2*80.283.6
9.1*10.111.7
Tennessee38.4*35.835.6
2.3*2.21.9
Indianapolis15.7*13.213.6
0.7*0.50.5

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

First Round Opponents

Who is going to play who in the first round of the playoffs.   Explain

ByeHoustonCincinnatiBuffaloDenverSan DiegoBaltimoreNew EnglandTennesseeNY JetsMiamiClevelandPittsburghIndianapolisOaklandKansas CityJacksonville
Houston40.53.83.53.23.04.03.23.52.62.62.82.21.40.80.80.8
Cincinnati32.63.83.83.83.43.73.23.42.62.52.51.81.50.90.80.9
Buffalo30.33.53.84.43.83.33.22.92.52.42.31.81.31.00.90.8
Denver25.53.23.84.44.23.93.93.23.23.22.62.01.30.80.80.8
San Diego12.73.03.43.84.23.03.12.52.52.42.11.61.00.50.50.6
Baltimore10.44.03.73.33.93.02.22.41.71.61.10.91.10.80.70.7
New England11.13.23.23.23.93.12.22.01.31.21.61.20.90.80.70.6
Tennessee8.73.53.42.93.22.52.42.01.61.51.71.30.50.60.60.3
NY Jets7.32.62.62.53.22.51.71.31.60.81.20.90.70.70.60.4
Miami5.82.62.52.43.22.41.61.21.50.81.20.90.70.60.50.4
Cleveland6.32.82.52.32.62.11.11.61.71.21.20.60.70.50.50.4
Pittsburgh3.82.21.81.82.01.60.91.21.30.90.90.60.60.40.30.3
Indianapolis2.11.41.51.31.31.01.10.90.50.70.70.70.60.20.20.1
Oakland1.00.80.91.00.80.50.80.80.60.70.60.50.40.20.10.2
Kansas City1.00.80.80.90.80.50.70.70.60.60.50.50.30.20.10.1
Jacksonville1.10.80.90.80.80.60.70.60.30.40.40.40.30.10.20.1