American Football Conference Playoff Chances

Buffalo +30.3, Jacksonville -58.8
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsWin SBChance will finish regular season at seed
SundayGW-L-TPCTGD%Change%Change12345678910111213141516Avg.ChangeRPIStrength
Baltimore13-4-0.765203In32.0%-0.81001.01.789Baltimore Ravens
BuffaloWMiami 21-1411-6-0.647140In+30.310.8+4.91002.0+2.8810.715Buffalo Bills
Kansas CityWLA Chargers 13-1211-6-0.64777In3.0-0.81003.011.636Kansas City Chiefs
Houston10-7-0.58824In1.2+0.21004.0+1.4614.541Houston Texans
ClevelandLCincinnati 14-3111-6-0.64734In1.0-0.61005.02.556Cleveland Browns
MiamiLBuffalo 14-2111-6-0.647105In2.2-2.31006.0-2.0615.650Miami Dolphins
Pittsburgh10-7-0.588-20In+28.50.2+0.01007.0+0.074.462Pittsburgh Steelers
CincinnatiWCleveland 31-149-8-0.529-18OutNo1008.0+2.737.470Cincinnati Bengals
JacksonvilleLTennessee 20-289-8-0.5296Out-58.8No-0.61009.0-2.9412.510Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis9-8-0.529-19OutNo10010.0-0.8916.470Indianapolis Colts
Las VegasWDenver 27-148-9-0.4711OutNo10011.019.502Las Vegas Raiders
DenverLLas Vegas 14-278-9-0.471-56OutNo10012.0-1.2521.409Denver Broncos
NY JetsWNew England 17-37-10-0.412-87OutNo10013.0+0.4223.340New York Jets
TennesseeWJacksonville 28-206-11-0.353-62OutNo10014.0+0.3025.390Tennessee Titans
LA ChargersLKansas City 12-135-12-0.294-52OutNo10015.0-0.1727.414Los Angeles Chargers
New EnglandLNY Jets 3-174-13-0.235-120OutNo10016.0-0.5529.279New England Patriots

We use the real NFL tiebreakers, except for net touchdowns (the last).

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 12/21
Pittsburgh 34 Cincinnati 11
4:30 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo+5.7
+0.3
Houston+3.2
Pittsburgh+5.0
Cincinnati-25.1
Jacksonville+3.7
Indianapolis+5.1
Houston 22 Cleveland 36
1:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo+5.6
+0.4
Houston-24.1
-0.3
Cleveland+6.7
+0.3
Jacksonville+4.4
Indianapolis+3.5
Denver 23 New England 26
8:15 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo+3.9
+0.2
Pittsburgh-0.6
Cincinnati+3.4
Jacksonville+4.1
Denver-14.7
Kansas City 14 Las Vegas 20
1:00 PM Mon100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Kansas City-2.3
-1.2
Houston-3.0
Cincinnati-2.6
Indianapolis-5.7
Las Vegas+12.9
Tampa Bay 30 Jacksonville 12
4:05 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo+3.9
+0.2
Houston+1.7
Pittsburgh+2.1
Cincinnati+1.7
Jacksonville-14.5
-0.2
Indianapolis+1.6
Denver+2.2
Atlanta 29 Indianapolis 10
1:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo+4.9
+0.3
Houston+1.9
Jacksonville+3.7
Indianapolis-13.6
LA Chargers 22 Buffalo 24
8:00 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo+12.3
+0.8
Houston-2.1
Pittsburgh-0.8
Cincinnati-2.2
Jacksonville-1.9
Indianapolis-2.5
Denver-1.8
LA Chargers*Out
Miami 22 Dallas 20
4:25 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
MiamiIn
+1.3
San Francisco 19 Baltimore 33
8:15 PM Mon100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Baltimore+1.9
Week of 12/30
Indianapolis 23 Las Vegas 20
1:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo-0.9
Kansas City+1.9
+0.2
Houston-0.6
Pittsburgh-2.0
Cincinnati+3.0
Jacksonville-4.0
Indianapolis+20.8
Las VegasOut
No
Seattle 23 Pittsburgh 30
4:05 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo-2.0
Pittsburgh+10.2
Cincinnati-9.6
Jacksonville+2.5
Indianapolis+1.4
Denver-2.5
Kansas City 25 Cincinnati 17
4:25 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo+1.9
Kansas CityIn
Houston+1.0
Pittsburgh+0.9
Cincinnati-12.2
Jacksonville+2.8
Indianapolis+3.0
Las Vegas+0.5
Denver-1.5
Houston 26 Tennessee 3
1:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Houston+13.3
Pittsburgh-1.0
Jacksonville-4.5
Indianapolis-5.1
Las Vegas-1.3
Jacksonville 26 Carolina 0
1:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo-0.8
Houston-3.6
Pittsburgh-1.4
Cincinnati-0.6
Jacksonville+9.3
Indianapolis-3.5
Buffalo 27 New England 21
1:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo+6.8
+0.6
Houston-1.7
Pittsburgh-1.0
Cincinnati-0.8
Jacksonville-0.8
Indianapolis-1.6
Las Vegas-0.4
Denver-0.4
Denver 16 LA Chargers 9
4:25 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Kansas City-1.2
Pittsburgh+1.3
Cincinnati-2.1
Jacksonville-2.2
Denver+3.6
Baltimore 56 Miami 19
1:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Baltimore+2.6
Miami-3.0
Week of 1/6
Tennessee 28 Jacksonville 20
1:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
BuffaloIn
+1.5
PittsburghIn
JacksonvilleOut
No
Indianapolis 19 Houston 23
1:00 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
HoustonIn
+0.4
IndianapolisOut
No
Baltimore 10 Pittsburgh 17
1:00 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo-25.9
-1.1
Pittsburgh+48.3
Jacksonville-22.4
Miami 14 Buffalo 21
1:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Buffalo+3.2
Miami-1.2

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

First Round Opponents

Who is going to play who in the first round of the playoffs.   Explain

ByeBaltimoreBuffaloKansas CityHoustonClevelandMiamiPittsburghJacksonville
BaltimoreYes
BuffaloNoNoNoYes
Kansas CityNoNoYesNoNo
HoustonNoNoYesNo
ClevelandYesNo
MiamiNoYesNoNo
PittsburghYesNoNo
JacksonvilleNoNo