American Football Conference Playoff Chances

Kansas City +0.0, Baltimore 0.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsWin SBChance will finish regular season at seed
ThursdayGW-L-TPCTGD%Change%Change12345678910111213141516Avg.ChangeRPIStrengthSunday
New England9-2-0.81813097.8%+0.025.0%+0.1731551321100001.63.725at Green BayNew England Patriots
Indianapolis7-4-0.6367793.8-0.06.2+0.02923600001111103.912.642WashingtonIndianapolis Colts
Denver8-3-0.7277289.0+0.08.3+0.012361651284321103.52.633at Kansas CityDenver Broncos
Kansas City7-4-0.6366664.4+0.04.4+0.0510732515119753105.86.647DenverKansas City Chiefs
Baltimore7-4-0.6368759.5-0.04.9+0.01715111212128675306.013.676San DiegoBaltimore Ravens
Cincinnati7-3-1.6821252.4-0.01.4+0.03101051311121297536.38.527at Tampa BayCincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh7-4-0.6362544.0+0.01.3+0.02612491214131296206.718.550New OrleansPittsburgh Steelers
Miami6-5-0.5456633.1-0.01.6+0.0122111171515141084007.611.637Miami Dolphins
Cleveland7-4-0.6362326.5-0.00.7+0.002735811121214121208.221.553at BuffaloCleveland Browns
San Diego7-4-0.6362922.5-0.00.7+0.01222799111515161108.515.566at BaltimoreSan Diego Chargers
Houston5-6-0.4551610.5+0.00.2+0.0001523610111522251009.719.536TennesseeHouston Texans
Buffalo6-5-0.545316.5-0.00.2-0.000002447111520360010.317.573ClevelandBuffalo Bills
Tennessee2-9-0.182-101OutNo0001612311413.627.295at HoustonTennessee Titans
NY Jets2-9-0.182-126OutNo0000284322714.126.255New York Jets
Jacksonville1-10-0.091-144OutNo00721403215.031.227NY GiantsJacksonville Jaguars
Oakland1-10-0.091-109OutNo00313275715.428.276at St. LouisOakland Raiders

Data is queried every 30 minutes, takes about 5 minutes for the web site to get up to date.
Currently after games are completed, I don't know who was home.
I do update partial games that aren't tied and update throughout the game.
Complete data dump is done every day at 3AM EST to fix mistakes or games that have been added.
Let me know how things are, if data is wrong: adamv at mad dot scientist dot com.


Last Updated: 9/23/2013 12:15:01 AM

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 11/27
Baltimore vs San DiegoIf winner is:HomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Denver88.986.089.4
8.2*8.68.6
Kansas City63.8*64.765.8
4.3*3.84.6
Baltimore71.5*60.035.3
6.1*5.42.5
Cincinnati52.0*52.753.2
1.3*1.71.5
Miami32.527.734.3
1.6*1.81.7
San Diego12.427.542.9
0.3*0.81.3
Kansas City vs DenverHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Denver82.4*90.698.4
6.4*8.311.1
Kansas City78.857.144.1
6.22.82.0
Baltimore58.1*61.461.4
Cincinnati51.4*50.153.9
Pittsburgh42.9*43.245.5
1.3*1.71.2
Miami31.3*35.435.6
1.6*2.21.7
Cleveland25.331.228.2
San Diego21.8*22.623.6
0.7*0.90.6
Tampa Bay vs CincinnatiHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Denver90.1*88.888.5
8.5*8.78.2
Kansas City66.9*66.063.2
4.6*4.64.4
Baltimore63.7*58.157.4
5.3*4.44.7
Cincinnati31.146.963.1
0.6*1.51.8
Pittsburgh48.0*42.641.9
1.4*1.41.2
Miami35.937.531.6
1.7*2.11.6
Cleveland29.7*29.424.9
0.8*1.10.7
San Diego24.2*22.021.7
0.7*0.90.7
Buffalo7.4*6.76.0
NY Jets vs MiamiHomeTieAway
Mon100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
New England98.799.197.6
25.6*24.124.8
Kansas City66.9*65.863.9
4.6*4.04.4
Baltimore63.563.658.6
5.1*4.54.8
Cincinnati55.0*51.151.8
Pittsburgh48.2*46.743.0
1.4*1.51.3
Miami9.318.138.5
0.40.81.9
Cleveland29.630.325.8
San Diego26.025.421.7
0.8*0.90.7
Houston11.3*10.210.3
Buffalo7.9*7.46.1
Buffalo vs ClevelandHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Kansas City65.9*62.962.3
4.5*3.44.3
Baltimore60.4*60.558.2
4.9*5.14.8
Cincinnati53.8*53.250.5
1.4*1.31.3
Pittsburgh45.4*41.941.9
1.3*0.91.2
Miami33.8*31.132.1
Cleveland15.336.142.7
0.4*1.21.2
San Diego23.4*20.421.2
Buffalo10.54.40.6
0.3*0.10.0
Pittsburgh vs New OrleansHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Kansas City63.4*63.266.1
4.4*3.74.5
Baltimore57.364.063.0
4.6*5.55.3
Cincinnati50.8*50.855.1
1.4*1.21.4
Pittsburgh53.139.529.1
1.7*0.80.7
Miami32.2*32.934.5
1.6*1.51.7
Cleveland25.0*27.329.0
0.7*1.10.8
San Diego21.8*23.123.6
Buffalo5.98.37.4
Houston vs TennesseeHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Indianapolis92.3*93.698.8
6.1*6.76.4
Miami32.8*34.933.9
Houston13.06.61.7
0.2*0.10.0
Indianapolis vs WashingtonHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Indianapolis95.586.587.4
6.5*5.85.1
Houston9.316.414.9
0.2*0.50.3
Green Bay vs New EnglandHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
New England96.299.599.6
23.5*25.926.7
Miami33.7*32.032.4
1.9*1.91.4
Week of 12/4
Miami vs BaltimoreIf winner is:HomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Denver89.386.588.7
8.6*7.58.0
Baltimore42.265.978.9
3.0*5.47.0
Pittsburgh42.5*42.645.6
1.3*1.21.2
Miami53.726.69.9
2.7*1.20.4
Cleveland25.930.927.2
San Diego21.5*23.723.7
Cincinnati vs PittsburghHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Cincinnati69.649.031.6
2.0*1.60.7
Pittsburgh26.0*42.765.8
0.6*0.92.2
Cleveland27.1*28.925.9
0.7*0.80.7
Cleveland vs IndianapolisHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Indianapolis90.4*92.696.7
5.2*5.97.0
Denver88.3*89.289.7
8.5*8.28.2
Kansas City62.7*63.366.0
4.5*4.54.4
Baltimore58.3*60.660.6
5.0*4.84.8
Cincinnati50.2*50.554.4
Pittsburgh41.9*44.245.8
Miami31.6*30.334.4
Cleveland39.534.015.1
1.1*1.00.3
San Diego21.4*20.623.5
Houston11.8*10.29.3
San Diego vs New EnglandHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
New England94.999.499.7
22.8*25.426.4
Denver87.8*88.389.8
8.5*8.68.2
Kansas City63.1*63.665.2
4.6*3.74.4
Baltimore57.7*60.560.6
5.0*4.74.8
Cincinnati50.9*50.953.4
1.4*1.31.3
Pittsburgh42.4*44.845.0
1.4*1.31.2
Miami32.329.733.6
1.9*1.31.4
Cleveland24.7*26.927.7
San Diego36.4*24.413.8
1.2*1.10.3
Arizona vs Kansas CityHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Denver90.0*88.987.9
8.7*8.18.0
Kansas City53.560.976.7
3.3*4.95.7
Baltimore61.4*59.857.3
5.1*4.84.6
Cincinnati54.0*52.250.6
1.5*1.61.3
Pittsburgh45.1*44.642.7
1.3*1.11.3
Miami34.2*32.731.8
1.7*2.31.6
Cleveland27.8*28.525.1
San Diego23.9*24.420.9
0.7*0.50.6
Houston11.0*9.69.9
Buffalo7.1*7.05.8
Denver vs BuffaloHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Denver95.683.478.2
9.5*6.56.3
Kansas City64.0*65.565.1
4.1*5.54.9
San Diego21.5*23.524.1
0.6*0.90.8
Buffalo1.6*6.614.5
0.0*0.10.4
Jacksonville vs HoustonHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl
Indianapolis98.7*93.992.2
6.5*7.06.1
Miami34.0*34.032.8
Houston1.77.013.3
0.0*0.20.3

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

First Round Opponents

Who is going to play who in the first round of the playoffs.   Explain

ByeNew EnglandIndianapolisDenverKansas CityBaltimoreCincinnatiPittsburghMiamiClevelandSan DiegoHoustonBuffalo
New England87.31.90.91.11.31.00.91.40.70.70.30.4
Indianapolis10.81.98.317.311.010.88.210.65.26.11.81.8
Denver48.30.98.37.36.04.23.53.32.62.81.20.8
Kansas City14.51.117.37.37.54.34.21.82.81.31.70.6
Baltimore8.81.311.06.07.57.06.83.43.42.41.10.8
Cincinnati12.81.010.84.24.37.02.93.22.42.11.20.5
Pittsburgh8.30.98.23.54.26.82.92.82.81.91.00.6
Miami3.01.410.63.31.83.43.22.81.80.70.80.1
Cleveland2.90.75.22.62.83.42.42.81.81.10.60.2
San Diego2.80.76.12.81.32.42.11.90.71.10.50.2
Houston0.10.31.81.21.71.11.21.00.80.60.50.1
Buffalo0.30.41.80.80.60.80.50.60.10.20.20.1